WALLACE, BACK IN THE CHAIR. WELCOME TO "THE BEAT." I'M ARI MELBER. THE MUSIC IS ON TO BECAUSE TODAY IS ANOTHER ELECTION DAY. MICHIGAN VOTERS ARE TURNING OUT AS DONALD TRUMP TRIES TO PIVOT AND DECLARE THE PRIMARY FUNCTIONALLY OR ESSENTIALLY OVER EVEN THOUGH HE HASN'T CLEARED, SAY, 65% IN A SINGLE STATE YET. THAT'S ACTUALLY AN ALARMING SEALING FOR A FORMER PRESIDENT BY ANY HISTORICAL MEASUREMENT. TONIGHT WE'RE ONE WEEK OUT FROM SUPER TUESDAY. TRUMP WILL FACE THE BROADEST SWATH OF PRIMARY VOTERS YET. THIS IS AN INTERESTING TIME. WE HAVE NOT HEARD FROM THIS MANY ACTUAL VOTERS SINCE 2022. FOR TRUMP, I CAN TELL YOU HISTORY HAS A MIXED WARNING ABOUT HIS TROUBLESOME PERFORMANCE AND NUMBERS THUS FAR. >> I SHALL RESIGN THE PRESIDENCY EFFECTIVE AT NOON TOMORROW. >> HE WAS A FOOTBALL STAR. HE WAS A STAR OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN'S UNDEFEATED NATIONAL CHAMPION FOOTBALL TEAMS OF 1932 AND 1933. >> I GERALD R. FORD DO SOLEMNLY SWEAR. >> FULL, FREE AND ABSOLUTE PARDON UNTO RICHARD NIXON FOR ALL OFFENSES AGAINST THE UNITED STATES. >> JUST A FEW MOMENTS THERE FROM A BYGONE ERA WHEN WHITE HOUSE MISCONDUCT ULTIMATELY EJECTED NIXON AND BROUGHT THE NATION PRESIDENT FORD WHO ROSE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN FOOTBALL TEAM, TO CONGRESS, TO VP, TO, ACCORDING TO MANY, A SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY PRESIDENT. FORD WENT INTO OFFICE WITHOUT HAVING WON A MANDATE HIMSELF. NO MAJORITY HAD VOTED FOR HIM, A POLITICAL START HE SHARES WITH DONALD TRUMP WHO GOT FEWER VOTES BOTH TIMES THAT HE HAS RUN FOR PRESIDENT. BOTH OF THESE MEN HAD THE TRAPPINGS OF THE WHITE HOUSE BUT NOT THE USUAL PUBLIC SUPPORT THAT COMES WITH IT. NOW, TO BE PRECISE, TRUMP PROBABLY HAD A BIT MORE TRADITIONAL LEGITIMACY BECAUSE HE HAD THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE WIN. FORD WAS THERE BY DEFAULT. THIS IS NEWS TONIGHT, BECAUSE WHEN FORD DID RUN FOR RE-ELECTION WITH THE WHITE HOUSE BACKING, THE EARLY PRIMARY SUDDENLY REVEALED SOMETHING. HE DID NOT HAVE ANYTHING LIKE FULL SUPPORT OF EVEN HIS OWN PARTY. YOU NEED A LOT MORE THAN JUST YOUR OWN PARTY TO WIN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. RIGHT NOW WE'VE BEEN REPARTING ON THE WARNING SIGNS AND THE CURRENT RATES FOR TRUMP. HERE WE ARE IN FEBRUARY, EARLY PHASE. IT WAS ACTUALLY IN LATE JANUARY 1976 WHEN "THE NEW YORK TIMES" WAS REPORTING ON THE PROBLEMS EVIDENT IN FORD'S PRIMARY CAMPAIGN AND HOW FORD'S POLITICAL WEAKNESS WITHIN HIS PARTY LEFT A VACUUM FOR A FORMER GOVERNOR TO CHALLENGE HIM, EVEN THOUGH FORD WAS THE ONE IN THE WHITE HOUSE. YOU'RE NOT SUPPOSED TO CATCH THAT MANY BIG CHALLENGES FROM WITHIN YOUR OWN PARTY WHEN YOU HAVE THE WHITE HOUSE, BUT HE DID. LIKE HALEY TODAY, REAGAN, SOMEONE YOU MIGHT REMEMBER, WAS A FORMER REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR TAKING THE UPHILL BATTLE AGAINST THE PARTY LEADER. REAGAN WAS CLEARLY OPEN TO ALTERNATIVES TO FORD. REAGAN WON SOME STATES. AS FORD GAINED MOMENTUM, YOU MIGHT REMEMBER, OR I'LL REMIND YOU, HIS TEAM TRIED TO SEND A SIGNAL TO REAGAN THEY COULD WORK IT ALL OUT AND COME TOGETHER. THEY WERE WARNING REAGAN'S OPPOSITION AND ONGOING CAMPAIGN COULD HURT THE GOP IN THE FALL GENERAL ELECTION. REAGANITES AND OTHER REPUBLICANS HAD THE OPPOSITE TAKE OF THAT. THEY FELT FORD WAS WEAK WITHIN THE PARTY, PROBABLY HEADED FOR A LOSS IN THE GENERAL. THE BEST THING WAS FOR THE PARTY TO ACTUALLY SEE THOSE FACTS, FACE THEM, MAYBE DO SOMETHING ABOUT THEM DURING THE PRIMARY WHEN THERE WAS A CHANCE FOR CHANGE. OBVIOUSLY I'M SAYING THIS TO YOU TONIGHT FOR A REASON. WHAT I JUST DESCRIBED, FACE THE FACTS AND THE WEAKNESS WHILE YOU CAN STILL CHOOSE A NOMINEE, IS ESSENTIALLY TODAY'S ARGUMENT NAH NIKKI HALEY AND FROM SOME OF THE REPUBLICAN DONOR CLASS AND FOR REALITY BASED CONSERVATIVE ELITES, RUPERT MURDOCK'S "WALL STREET JOURNAL." BACK IN '76 REAGAN DID PRESS ON. HE THWARTED FORD FROM CLINCHING THE NOMINATION FROM DELEGATES WHICH KEYED UP A BIG CLASH IN CONGRESS. THEY ACTUALLY DID IT. I'LL REMIND YOU, AMERICA'S NEWSMAN AT THE TIME, WALTER CRONKITE REPORTED ON THOSE HIGH POLITICAL STAKES NOTING FORD'S CORE PROBLEM WHICH MIGHT SOUND FAMILIAR. IF YOU HAVE THE FULL POWERS AND PROMINENCE OF THE WHITE HOUSE BEHIND YOU BUT NOT ENOUGH POWER OR SUPPORT TO EVEN PREVENT A DIVIDED PARTY ON YOUR OWN TEAM, YOU MIGHT HAVE A PROBLEM. CRONKITE REMINDING VIEWERS NO PRESIDENT ACTUALLY FACED THAT KIND OF INTRA-PARTY CHALLENGE SINCE 1912. >> PRESIDENT FORD FACING A CHALLENGE TO NOMINATION FROM HIS PARTY, THE FIRST SUCH BY ANY POLITICAL PARTY OF AN INCUMBENT PRESIDENT SINCE 1912. >> AS OF NOW WE'RE LOOKING AT A CONTEST WHICH IS VERY, VERY CLOSE. >> THE REAGAN FORCES LOST HERE TONIGHT IN THIS AUDITORIUM IN KANSAS CITY. >> THAT'S HOW IT WENT DOWN. THE REAGAN CHALLENGE LOST, BUT FORD WENT ON TO LOSE THE GENERAL ELECTION TO WHAT WAS THEN AN OB SKURP DEMOCRATIC FIGURE, JIMMY CARTER. NOW, THERE IS NO FINAL FACTUAL ANSWER TO WHETHER FORD WOULD LOSE ANYWAY OR THAT LONG PRIMARY WEAKENED HIM. THE COKE ES ARE CLEAR AS HALEY'S CAMPAIGN HAS MORPHED BEYOND JUST DISCUSSING POTENTIAL ALTERNATIVES TO TRUMP AND RATHER ARGUING AGAINST TRUMP EVER BECOMING PRESIDENT AGAIN. MOST OF HER PRIMARY VOTERS IN SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND GOT THAT MESSAGE. THEY OPPOSE TRUMP PERIOD IN THE FALL. THEY SAY THEY WON'T SUPPORT HIM. OTHER REPUBLICANS ARE SAYING THEY WON'T BACK TRUMP AGAIN, PERIOD. THAT IS INTRA-PARTY WEAKNESS IF YOU ALREADY WERE PRESIDENT. FORD IS NOT THE ONLY EXAMPLE. THIS HAS COME UP DURING OTHER ELECTION CLASHES AS CANDIDATES HAVE TO DEBATE WHETHER THEY HAD A GOOD NIGHT, A GREAT NIGHT, A TROUNCING. ARE THEY FAMOUS AND DOING WELL OR JUST GETTING STARTED? ANY POINTS ON THE BOARD ARE SUPPOSED TO BE GOOD. POLITICS HAVE ALWAYS HAD THESE DEB BASE OVER WHAT'S GOOD ENOUGH. WE RELY ON OUR NUMBERS, OUR FACTUAL GURU STEVE KORNACKI. LAWRENCE O'DONNELL ADDED HISTORY WITH THE CURRENT NUMBERS FOR TRUMP'S INABILITY SO FAR TO BREAK 60% WITH HALEY, FOR EXAMPLE, AT 40% THIS PAST WEEKEND. >> LET'S TALK ABOUT 40% FOR A SECOND. WHAT IS 40%? >> ONE OF MY FAVORITE NUMBERS. >> IT WAS ENOUGH FOR LYNDON JOHNSON TO DECIDE NOT TO RUN FOR RE-ELECTION. McCARTHY GOT 42% IN 1968 IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AGAINST THE SITTING PRESIDENT. NO ONE THOUGHT HE WAS GOING TO GET ABOVE 20. WHEN LYNDON JOHNSON SAW THOSE RESULTS, THAT WAS IT. IT WAS ALL OVER. >> IT WAS, LAWRENCE O'DONNELL, REMINDING US TO LEARN FROM HISTORY. PRESIDENT JOHNSON SAW THAT SIMILAR NUMBER, A CHALLENGER CRACKING 40% IN HIS OWN PARTY AGAINST A WHITE HOUSE VETERAN AND HE WAS OUT. RFK WAS IN THE WINGS. A LOT OF DETAILS WE COULD GET INTO. WE DUG INTO THIS TO PRESENT CONTEXT TONIGHT. HOW EXPERTS KNEW THAT AN OPPONENT DOING THAT WELL INSIDE LBJ'S OWN PARTY WHEN HE HAD THE WHITE HOUSE BEHIND HIM, THAT COULD BE CURTAINS FROM LBJ. >> IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, THE IMPORTANT POINT IS THAT THERE IS A CONTEST AT ALL. USUALLY WHEN AN INCUMBENT PRESIDENT IS RUNNING FOR RE-ELECTION, NOBODY IN HIS OWN PARTY COMES IN TOAL CHALLENGE HIM. SENATOR McCARTHY HAS COME TO CHALLENGE HIM THIS TIME. IF McCARTHY GETS 30% OF THE VOTE OR MORE AGAINST AN INCUMBENT PRESIDENT HE CAN LEGITIMATELY CLAIM A LEGITIMATE VICTORY. >> THAT WOULD MEAN THERE'S SOMETHING GOING ON, SOME PROBLEMS, SOME ALERTS, SOME SERIOUS OPPOSITION. McCARTHY WON 42% IN A RESULT SEEN AS STUNNING AT THE TIME. NOW, THERE WERE MANY FACTORS DRIVING OPPOSITION TO LBJ FROM VIETNAM TO DOMESTIC UNREST. AS A MATTER OF POLITICAL MATH, LBJ KNEW THOSE NUMBERS MEANT HIS PARTY WAS ON THE ROAD TO REJECTING HIM. HE COULD LOSE IN THE PRIMARY, TO RFK IN THE WINGS, COULD LOSE THE GENERAL ELECTION. HE MADE A RARE, DRAMATIC HISTORIC ANNOUNCEMENT, QUITTING, AS PRESIDENT, HIS RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN. >> I SHALL NOT SEEK, AND I WILL NOT ACCEPT THE NOMINATION OF MY PARTY FOR ANOTHER TERM AS YOUR PRESIDENT. >> THAT WAS THEN. NOW, THERE ARE NO SIGNS WHATSOEVER THAT DONALD TRUMP LOOKS AT THIS MATH OR UNDERSTANDS THE WARNING SIGNS POLITICALLY IN THE SAME WAY. AS MENTIONED, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES. I TALKED ABOUT HISTORICAL PARALLELS. DONALD TRUMP IS EXTREMELY ACCUSTOMED TO RUNNING FROM BEHIND, TO BEING REJECTED BY BOTH -- IN BOTH HIS RACES BY MOST VOTERS, BUT SAVED ONCE BY THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE. RUNNING FROM BEHIND IS HIS THINGS THING. EVEN A LONG SHOT CAMPAIGN WILL HELP HIM FUND HIS VERY EXPENSIVE LEGAL DEFENSE, OVER $50 MILLION IN LEGAL FEES LAST YEAR, SUBSIDIZED BECAUSE HE IS A CANDIDATE AND CONVINCED A LOT OF REPUBLICANS THEY MUST PROTECT HIM OR FUND FIM. HE QUIT THE WAY LBJ DID, I DON'T KNOW THAT THE MONEY WOULD POUR IN. HE NEEDS TO OUTRUN CRIMINAL TRIALS AS WELL THAT COULD LAND A CONVICTED DEFENDANT IN PRISON. TRUMP EEPS CALCULATIONS ARE VERY DIFFERENT FROM LBJ AND THE OTHERS TO SAY THE LEAST. OTHER REPUBLICAN ALLIES SEE THE MATH FOR TRUMP, THE HEADLINES FROM CONSERVATIVE OUTLETS LIKE THE JOURNAL, THE NON-PARTISAN OUTLETS TO WHAT OTHER REPUBLICANS SAY ARE VERY CLEAR. THE MATH IS BAD. THE PARTY IS DIVIDED. THE PERSON WHO MAY BE VICTORIOUS IN THE NARROW SENSE OF BECOMING THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE IS AT THE SAME TIME ON A PATH THAT LOOKS
