Simulation of a Nuclear Blast in a Major City

so it has been two and a half years since i posted the trailer for my upcoming climate film as many of you have noticed um and i have been working on it almost every day ever since uh so it's really close and thank you for your patience and stay tuned in the meantime i do have something to share with you today i generally reserve this channel for my own independent projects but recently i've been working with the folks behind the nobel peace prize and not only they've been wonderful to work with in terms of support and creative freedom but they have allowed me to post the video here on my channel so thank you to them and here's the film imagine for a moment the unimaginable happened a major city is hit by a nuclear weapon now no number could account for all the devastation that would result but we can put a number on the deaths at least we can make an educated guess based on our understanding of what nuclear blasts do to city structures and people we'll assume the bomb is detonated in the air to maximize the radius of impact as was done in japan in 1945 but here we'll use an 800 kiloton warhead a relatively large bomb in today's arsenals and a hundred times more powerful than the bomb dropped on hiroshima upon detonation a fireball as hot as the sun would expand to a radius of 800 meters those near the blast would be vaporized and within a two kilometer radius all buildings would likely be destroyed and we'll assume that virtually no one survives inside this area which based on population density would start the death tally at 120 000 people as you move further away from ground zero estimating depth becomes more complicated from as far away as 11 kilometers the radiant heat from the blast would be strong enough to cause third degree burns on exposed skin and as you get closer to the blast the heat becomes so intense that clothing even skin would ignite into flames that said most people in the city would be indoors or otherwise sheltered from direct exposure but the very structures that offered this protection would then become a cause of injury as debris would rip through buildings and rain down on city streets as a rough estimate we can assume that half the people between two and 11 kilometers from the blast are killed from burns debris smoke collapsed buildings and radiation sickness which translates roughly into an additional half million people many of these deaths will occur days even weeks after the attack radiation sickness takes about a week to cause death and much of the dust and ash produced from the explosion will be dangerously radioactive especially if it originated near ground zero and the distance the particles travel will depend on the wind and other factors now since this simulation is of an air burst attack it will produce significantly less radioactive fallout than ground attacks targeting missile silos or bunkers so we'll go with a relatively small number of deaths outside the 11 kilometer range if it were a surface blast the fallout deaths could surpass all other deaths combined but it's a very difficult number to predict in theory radiation deaths can be reduced if people can avoid exposure to the fallout especially during the critical first few days fallout shelters were common during the cold war but people rarely build shelters today and schools no longer practice nuclear war drills we generally talk less about surviving a nuclear attack and in a way it's good that we're less afraid of the bomb now that the cold war is over when nations are less on edge the risk of accidents is arguably reduced but nuclear weapons remain one of the great threats to humanity and today we're entering a new era in nuclear weapon history long-standing nuclear arms treaties are being reassessed and countries big and small face the prospect of new arms races in part because technology is emerging that may give one side a considerable strategic advantage notably hypersonic weapons current nuclear missiles travel around the earth at high altitudes making them visible by radar earlier in their flight [Music] some hypersonic vehicles travel close to the earth through the atmosphere at at least five times the speed of sound giving defending countries far less time to react and remember that some of the most perilous moments during the cold war occurred when countries maneuvered to reduce their opponent's reaction time and the less time countries have to react the more likely an accident will occur or a rash judgment and then you have smaller nukes that blur the line between conventional and nuclear weapons providing a more slippery path to nuclear escalation now for ordinary citizens nuclear weapon policy may seem like a complex even intimidating topic but leaders often consider public perceptions when making policy in many countries voter opinion is an important factor whether you believe nuclear weapons have made the world safer or more dangerous both sides generally agree that the bomb brings an unparalleled risk and that there are things we can do to reduce the risk like minimizing how many countries get the bomb or scaling back cold war arsenals or stabilizing technology races or pledging to never be the first one to strike such ideas have often resulted in signed treaties some of which have held for decades some are at risk of expiring and some just need a final push to become activated by being steadfast in these efforts and not walking away from diplomatic achievements we can continue the work of ensuring that this nightmare simulation never becomes a reality if you would like to learn about specific policies that could help reduce the risk of nuclear war you can find links to resources in the video notes you

Channel: Neil Halloran

Views: 11,917,434

Rating: 4.9114399 out of 5

Keywords:

Id: Z3RzNEzJyzo

Length: 7min 59sec (479 seconds)

Published: Thu Oct 01 2020

Reddit Comments

[u/SsurebreC]

There was a debate a while back, arguing about the best way to die. The winner of the debate said that it's best to be right next to a nuclear explosion.

The nuclear explosion happens so quickly that your pain receptors don't have enough time to reach your brain (before they're vaporized along with the rest of you). Your brain simply won't have the time to process anything before your entire body is destroyed. You'll just simply disappear and maybe become a shadow.

[u/Groovyaardvark]

There was this huge Homeland Security exercise I participated in back in 2017. It was very impressive. I think they do similar ones fairly often.

What they did was take a snapshot of an incredible amount of data that from the exact same dates a year earlier. Wind direction, rain, temperature, number of planes in the air, traffic conditions in New York City. A truly impressive amount of data. Then they detonated a theoretical 10 Kt device in a truck inside the Lincoln Tunnel.

Forget about New York / Jersey City being destroyed. Our focus was on surviving burn victims. I cannot recall the number but it was scary as fuck. Something like a million with some degree of burn injuries alone.

So our job was to save as many of these people as possible. The DoD, National Guard, FEMA, everyone was in the room with us and they would play an air raid siren at the start of every theoretical day once we have made our suggestions of what action to take. (It was stupidly loud. Everyone hated it).

The military would be showing us how civilian air traffic would be grounded, how Canada would be sending this many planes to these locations for our theoretical use and so on. Really, really detailed stuff. Then someone else would show us where the fallout would be blown from the wind and the location we chose as the "safe medical command hub" or whatever the day before was now enveloped as it would have been on whatever it was, April 20th 2016 or whatever.

There are something like 1500 hospital beds for burn victims in the United States, with most of them being used already. So they actually gave the numbers of available beds on the dates used and it was less than 300 available beds across the whole country.

Then they would show numbers of people that died from PREVENTABLE DEATHS that day if they had access to a burn ward. We are talking like 90,000 deaths each day. It was fucking insane.

Long story short. This was a relatively small device, within the realm of terrorists.

By the end of that week, we all left knowing just how fucked we would be if it ever happened. Just one small device with 80 year old technology.

[u/riconoir28]

Nicely done, well explained.

[u/YouWantALime]

Doesn't matter how many treaties are in effect if some rogue nation decides to launch. Mutually assured destruction isn't much comfort, because revenge won't bring back the cities that will have been annihilated.

[u/GeronimoRay]

Russia just successfully tested a hypersonic missile on Monday that is capable of bypassing USA's missile defense systems....

[u/Crimsonial]

Great video. I'd be interested to know more about the No First Use treaties and similar, I'd imagine there has to be some pretty compelling political ramifications to sidetrack what is probably the current apex of military escalation.

[u/thirty-seven37]

Is this video preparing us for December 2020? An accidental nuclear blast seems like a pretty nice cherry on the shit sundae this year has been.

[u/Drak_is_Right]

One risk mitigating factor not mentioned: command chains with launch authorization. Some countries commanders have a lot more launch authority due to limited second strike and detection ability. Pakistan is the worst offender at this. (not sure on India/Israel, if North Korea is even capable of launching a missile with a functioning (not dud) warhead on it).

China, Russia, France, UK have iffy/spotty detection capabilities in the boost phase compared to the US. France/UK rely on US capabilities for launch detection. China is trying to develop and fully roll out a triad for that reason, though their second strike capability is believed to be extremely limited. France/England have much of their arsenal invested in second strike weaponry, though limited number of boomers carries risk. Russia has more field authority than the US due to poorer detection, though their robust arsenal and large numbers of truck-launched ICBMs guarantees a country leveling second strike would be intact.

As for hypersonic missiles, a command chain decapitation is the worry there. Actual strikes at nuclear weapon arsenals would require a huge number to be launched (much higher chance of detection) and targeting cities would do nothing to prevent a second strike and carry no tactical advantage.

Time for a second strike to hit is in the 30 min to 1 hour range after first weapons were launched. Considered less for the US compared to others given detection at 0:01 launch from satellites president is notified at around 2 mins. few minutes more for orders and weapons to launch in retaliation.

[u/Distaplia]

Is the cold war really over? doesn't feel like it.