An 8-year-long conflict in Eastern Ukraine that
started in 2014 escalated into a full-scale war when Vladimir Putin started his unprovoked
invasion of Ukraine. More than 6 months have passed since the start of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Most expected the war to be over in several
weeks, for Russia to prevail and Ukraine to fall apart quickly amidst the indecisiveness of
the West. But Ukrainian resistance, unexpected weakness of the perceived second strongest army
in the world, and a strong Western response have created a completely different situation. In this
video, we are going to summarize and analyze the Russo-Ukrainian war since its start and discuss
potential developments in the foreseeable future. Please note that the script for this video
was written on the 10th of September, 2022.
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a gift, and help support the channel. After months of uncertainty amidst warnings
from the United States and the United Kingdom about an impending Russian invasion of Ukraine,
on February 24, Russia attacked Ukraine from 4 main axes with an estimated 150k-strong force. On
the capital Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy from Belarus in the North; on Kharkiv from the Northeast;
on the Ukraine-controlled Donetsk oblast and Luhansk oblast from Southeast; on Kherson
and Melitopol from Crimea in the South. Russia’s official pretext for this invasion,
which they called the Special Military Operation, was to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine.
Russia also claimed that Ukraine has Biolabs creating bioweapons, but failed to prove
it. Another justification was the possible Ukrainian acceptance into NATO, but the alliance
doesn’t allow countries with territorial disputes to join it. On top of that, we have recently
learned that in the first days of the invasion, Ukraine offered Russia to give guarantees of
its neutral status, but Putin rejected that, showing that NATO accession was just a pretext.
The Kremlin's strategy was based upon an assumption that the Ukrainian government
and the military would crumble very quickly. According to the Washington Post investigation,
Putin was misled by his intelligence, which argued that the Ukrainian government was
unpopular and that the Ukrainians were going to meet the Russians as liberators. Nothing could
have been further from the truth. Despite the decent initial advance of the Russian army, the
main prize, Kyiv stood tall. Buoyed by defiant Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, the
Ukrainian society refused to give up on its country’s independence. The Ukrainian army was
also much stronger in comparison with 2014. Strengthened with anti-tank Javelins and NLAWs,
it managed to inflict painful losses to the Russian armored force, while withdrawing towards
cities in an orderly manner and harassing Russian supply lines. Russian airborne attacks on Kyiv and
Kharkiv failed. A 65-kilometer-long mass armored column of the Russian army advancing on Kyiv did
not change the tide in the battle of Kyiv either. The biggest success of the Russian army in the
early phase of the war was the capture of Kherson, the only large regional center taken by
the Russian army throughout the theater, in early March. The Ukrainian government has
implicitly taken responsibility for this setback. But why did Russia fail to defeat Ukraine within
weeks? Why did Kyiv not fall within 3-4 days, as the US government expected? Investigations and
analyses of the Russian invasion of Ukraine seem to conclude that Russia did not expect much
resistance in Ukraine. The Russian command believed that Kyiv would fall quickly, which
would cause a chain reaction all over Ukraine. The fall of the Ukrainian government would break
the spirit of the Ukrainian army to fight and Russia would freely advance as it did at the start
of the conflict in 2014. So, when Ukraine offered a spirited resistance, Russia was simply not ready
for this. Poor coordination between different military units and branches, inability to conduct
major offensive operations, low morale of Russian soldiers, inability to ensure stable supply of
the forces in the frontline, and a failure to establish air superiority doomed Russia into a
long, protracted and bloody campaign in Ukraine. Why did Russia fail to have dominance in
the air, despite its 1511 to 98 advantage in combat aircraft at the start? For instance, Harry
Boneham of GlobalData argued that it was linked with the poor training of Russian pilots, lack of
precision-guided munition, which forced Russian aircrafts to fly in low altitudes and expose
themselves to the Ukrainian air-defense, including the Western provided MANPADS, Western intelligence
support to the Ukrainian army, and unwillingness of the Russian command to risk its costly
aircraft against the background of these factors. Early lack of success and unsustainable
casualties, especially in temrs of armor, forced the Russian command to rethink
its strategy and withdraw from the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts in April, 2022
and to focus on its offensive in Donbas. Russia simply did not have enough men
to continue fighting on all 4 axes. The size of their invading force was planned in
accordance with the scenario of a rapid Ukrainian collapse, and when this scenario failed, the
Russian command decided to narrow its objective. But military setbacks were not the only blow
Russia received at the beginning of the war. Despite initial hesitations, Western countries
have imposed painful sanctions on Russia. The most consequential sanctions include freezing
almost half of Russia's financial reserves, disconnecting major Russian banks from the
SWIFT payment system, banning Russian ships and planes from entering Western ports and airspace,
restriction in the export of advanced technology to Russia, and import of Russian goods, including
energy imports from Russia. Along with that, more than 1200 foreign companies have left Russia, and
suspended or restricted their operations there, including Apple, Visa, Mastercard, and so on.
As a result, Russian GDP had fallen by 4% in the second quarter of 2022 and according to the IMF
projection, Russia would lose at least 6% of its GDP by the end of the year. The Russian economy
is suffering from high inflation. Production in many sectors has dwindled, as Russia couldn’t
import most of the goods it needed to feed its industry. According to Al Jazeera, Russia’s
car production “plummeted by a stunning 61.8% during the first 6 months of this year”. But the
Russian economy has proved to be less vulnerable to sanctions than it was forecasted, due to
an initial rise in energy prices. However, as Russia basically stopped selling oil and gas
to Europe, and India and China, who managed to fill their stores are not buying the oil and gas
at the same rate, this process largely stopped, and in August Russian energy revenues
dropped to 11 billion$, lowest in 14 months. The Kremlin has also increased government
spending, which helped to keep the economy afloat. The government managed to keep the ruble
relatively stable through different monetary measures, along with keeping inflation under
control as its rate was at 14.9% in August, a 3% decrease from its peak in April. While
the Russian economy has definitely suffered and decreased due to Western sanctions, the reports
on its death are rather premature. Economists and analysts expect the impact of sanctions to be felt
gradually in Russia and in the foreseeable future. But for now, the Russian economy is surviving.
Sanctions have had a negative impact on the quality of life of ordinary Russians. It is
difficult to know the exact number at this point, but hundreds of thousands of Russians have
left the country following the invasion. In the tech sector alone, an estimated 50k to 70k
Russians have emigrated. Many Russians whose work is deeply connected to the global economy have
had no other choice, but to leave. Many others who opposed the invasion have done the same, possibly
fearing repercussions for their position. At this point, Russia is experiencing a brain drain,
the impact of which we will see in the future. How supportive are Russians of their government’s
decision to invade Ukraine? Right after the start of the invasion, thousands of Russians took
to the streets to protest Putin’s decision. But in the absence of an organized opposition
following the arrest of Aleksey Navalny and repressions against his Anti-Corruption Foundation
that occurred earlier, the Russian law enforcement managed to curb these protests rather easily.
After a while, mass protests turned into solitary protests and calls by prominent Russians to stop
the war, acts which often resulted in fines, administrative arrests and all sorts of problems
with law enforcement. Usual suspects were Russian intelligentsia, writers, journalists, film
directors, actors, and so on. But in a somewhat unexpected turn of events, several Russian
oligarchs like Oleg Deripaska, Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Tinkov also called to stop the invasion.
Roman Abramovich at some point even acted as a mediator in the failed Russo-Ukrainian peace talks
early in the war. Evidently, sanctions are heavily harming Russian oligarchs, particularly those with
links to the West, and some of them have voiced their concern. But, the general Russian public
is supportive of the war in Ukraine. According to polls conducted by the independent think tank
Levada operating in Russia, 76% of respondents stated their support for the Russian invasion,
a meager 5% drop in comparison with March. Even the continued shelling of civilian areas
of Ukraine and evidence of the brutality of the Russian troops did not do much to decrease
the support for the war. Some analysts question how firm that support is and if the Russians
are ready to actively support the war effort. Following the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv
oblast, it was revealed that hundreds of Ukrainian civilians had died in the town of Bucha during the
Russian occupation. Even though Russia deflected the blame on Ukrainians whom they accused
of organizing a spectacle and a provocation, all the evidence points to a Russian-organized
massacre. According to the UN report, as of August 21, 5587 Ukrainian civilians had been killed and
7890 had been injured since the start of the war. The UN also stated that as of August,
7 million Ukrainians have fled the war. Thousands of Ukrainian children were
kidnapped to Russia for adoption. The human suffering caused by the Russian invasion
is difficult to measure and account for, but it is clear that tens of thousands have died,
millions have fled and hundreds of villages, towns, and cities have been destroyed or
heavily damaged since the start of the war. Following the failure of the strategy to shock
Ukraine into submission, the Eastern region of Ukraine, Donbas, which has been a zone of conflict
since 2014, became the main focus of the Russian offensive. This prompted the Russian government
and propaganda to reinvent their justification of war. Denazification and demilitarization of
Ukraine remained somewhere in the background in their messages, while the so-called “Liberation of
DPR and LPR” became the emphasis. It seems like at this point, reaching the administrative borders
of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts became the minimum program for the Russian command. In mid-April,
Russia restarted its offensive in Donbas. The Russian strategy was the usual one: massing
an excessive number of artillery in a relatively small area and embarking on a massive artillery
shelling campaign turning target cities and villages into rubble. At this point, the main
advantage of the Russian army over the Ukrainian army was the numerical advantage it had in terms
of artillery. This allowed Russia to have its most successful period of the war between April and
early July. Russia made steady progress in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts throughout this period. While
Ukraine managed to stabilize the situation on all other fronts, it was suffering in Donbas. The
Russian Donbas offensive culminated with the capture of Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk by early
July. Luhansk oblast was under complete control of the Russian army, while it continued its progress
in Donetsk oblast. Ukraine’s losses in this period were heavy, as in June Zelensky stated that
Ukraine was losing up to 200 soldiers every day. The Ukrainian government regularly requested
more advanced military equipment to stop the Russian advance, including High Mobility Artillery
Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and in June, the United States finally started supplying Ukraine with this
system. HIMARS precision fire by 6 rockets has a range of up to 80 kilometers and this gradually
changed the situation on the battlefield. Armed with HIMARS, Ukraine started regularly
targeting ammunition and oil depots as well as command centers of Russia in the rear, destroying
the supplies necessary to continue the Donbas Offensive. Very soon, Russia’s advance came to
a halt. Throughout July and August, the Russian Army tried to advance on Sloviansk, Kramatorsk,
Bakhmut, and Avdiivka, but their gains have been minuscule. Since July 16, Russia had managed to
capture only 450 square kilometers of territory. HIMARS did not only enable Ukraine to
stabilize the situation in Donbas. It has also allowed them to plan counter-offensive
operations with the use of HIMARS in mind. After months of the destruction of the Russian
ammunition and oil depots on the Southern front, and key supply points like the Antonivskyi
Bridge in Kherson, Ukraine finally launched its long-awaited counter-offensive. Ukraine has
made decent progress in the counter-offensive, which is going on as we speak, advancing towards
Kherson from three different directions. The problem in this for Russia is exacerbated by
the difficulty to supply its troops fighting on the western bank of Dnipro in the Kherson
oblast due to the destruction of key bridges. But the most successful Ukrainian
counter-offensive was launched in early September in a completely different direction. Russia has
been redeploying its units from the area West of Izium to other directions perceived as more
important, which Ukraine has been able to exploit. After sending more troops and military equipment
to this area, which the Russian command somehow missed or ignored, Ukraine has conducted its
most successful operation of the war yet. Ukraine has liberated Balakliya, most of
Kupiansk and Izium, while advancing on Liman. Kupiansk is of a particular strategic importance
due to being a key supply hub for the Russian war effort in Donbas, which fell to the
occupiers in the first days of the invasion. Russian military bloggers have claimed that
their front in Izium has collapsed and the situation of Russian troops fighting there
is dire. Ukrainian counter-offensives show that after months of defending and reacting
to the Russian movement, Ukraine has managed to capture initiative and momentum on the
battlefield for the first time in this war. We should not forget that Ukraine has been the
biggest victim of this invasion, as its people continue dying in defense of their country,
while their cities, infrastructure and economy continue being destroyed. But this war has been
consequential to so many other countries that we can say that it has already had a global impact.
With natural gas prices being over 3000 dollars per cubic meters, a major increase since the start
of the war, inflation has become a common problem for Western countries and inflation has become
a cause of significant discontent in the West. For now, European governments are bracing for a
difficult winter by enacting austerity measures and in some cases, unfortunately, going back
to environmentally harmful practices like using coal-fired power plants. But experts
note that gas storages of most European countries are over 80% full, which should
be enough to pass the year without a crisis. The war has also caused a major disruption
of international grain trade. Ukraine is one of the biggest grain exporters in the
world and the Russian control of the Black Sea caused risks for shipping of grain to
international markets. Russia is one of the biggest fertilizer exporters in the world
and in response to sanctions it restricted their fertilizer exports. This led
to fears of global grain shortage, which could have led to starvation in the
poorest countries of the world. Thankfully, on July 22 Ukraine and Russia agreed to a grain
deal, which was brokered by the UN and Türkiye. Russia agreed to deblockade Ukrainian ports and
allow grain shipments to go to international markets, while also concurring to restart
fertilizer exports. Recently, Putin accused Ukraine of shipping most of the grain to Western
countries and threatening to restrain the deal. Another process with potentially disastrous global
consequences is related to the Zaporizhian Nuclear Power Plant. In March, Russia captured the power
plant. In August, sides started blaming each other of shelling the power plant. After weeks of
negotiations, the visit of the IAEA delegation to the power plant was agreed upon. In early
September this study visit was concluded and the IAEA made quite a neutral statement describing
potential risks and calling sides to agree to cessation of all hostilities in the area. We
will continue following the situation around the Zaporizhian Nuclear Power Plant and hoping that
a prudent solution will be found to this issue. What is next for Ukraine and Russia? For the
first time since the start of the war, Ukraine has momentum and initiative on the battlefield.
Russia is suffering from a shortage of troops on the ground, as the invasion was planned as
a short and victorious campaign. This shortage of troops has reached such levels that even the
best Russian unit - the Wagner has been trying to recruit Russian prisoners to join their mercenary
unit. HIMARS is decimating Russian military infrastructure and supplies and has already
inflicted significant harm on Russian firepower. Russia has tried to respond to these issues by
energizing its campaign to hire more contract and volunteer soldiers throughout its vast territory
as part of its crypto-mobilization efforts. The Russian new Third Army Corps has already
been deployed in most problematic areas of the battlefield such as Northern Donbas to
stop the Ukrainian advance. Furthermore, the Kremlin has adopted measures of economic
mobilization, as now the government has a right to order workers of state institutions to work
overtime without payment and order enterprises to start producing military equipment. But low
morale, poor military command, ever-present supply problem and unclear end-game of the Russian
military strategy in Ukraine cause serious doubts about the future of the Russian military invasion
of Ukraine. On the contrary, Ukraine’s military situation has never been better since the start
of the war. Continued western support, effective use of new western supplies like HIMARS and the
willingness of the Ukrainian government, army and the society to fight the war until victory has
allowed Ukraine to capture initiative in this war. The full impact of this Ukrainian advance
on the war overall is not yet clear. But one thing is becoming more and more clear. The
Ukrainian army is getting stronger due to more and better military equipment being given to it.
The United States is considering giving fighter jets to Ukraine. Discussions around supplying
Ukraine with ATACMS precision missiles with a 300 kilometer range are ongoing. Getting these weapons
would give Ukraine a further advantage over the Russian army. But for now, the United States has
acted carefully in terms of providing Ukraine with long-range missiles, since Washington fears
that this could lead to an escalation by Russia. Thanks again to our sponsor, Established
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