We have now crossed another questionable
milestone in the unprovoked Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. 500 days have passed
since the start of the full-scale invasion, but we still do not seem any closer to the end of the
war. In the first half of July, Ukraine continued slowly gaining ground in its counter-offensive,
which many of its supporters would have hoped to be faster. Russia relies on its heavily fortified
defensive lines to stall Ukrainians and turn their counter-offensive into a slow war of attrition.
Welcome to another update on the war in Ukraine. Ideally detailed fortifications need to be kept
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description, or the QR code on the screen. In the first half of July, the Ukrainian army
continued attacking on the Zaporizhia front. Despite putting relentless pressure on heavily
fortified and mined Russian defensive lines, mostly with small infantry groups supported by
several armored vehicles, they have yet to achieve a decisive breakthrough. Still, the Ukrainian
army continued making gains there. On July 1, it was reported that Ukraine advanced up to 1.5
km deep and 6 km wide north of Robotyne and gained ground towards Pryytne in the Velyka Novosilka
axis. On July 3, the geolocated footage indicated the Ukrainian advance on Luhivske. By July 10, the
Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade advanced just north of Robotyne, the capture of which would lead
the Ukrainians to the so-called Surovikin line. On July 12, Ukraine was reportedly gaining
further ground towards Pryytne. On July 16, the Russian war criminal Igor Strelkov-Girkin
claimed that the Ukrainian army had taken Staromaiorske under control. Still, so far, there
has been no other evidence of this development. Some commentators argue that the slow pace
of Ukrainian advance since the start of the counter-offensive is because the Ukrainian army is
still conducting preparatory actions. The military logic says that an attacking side should first
conduct airstrikes to destroy command posts, artillery systems, fortifications, supply
routes and any other component of the military infrastructure of a defending side
that may prevent attackers from succeeding. Ukrainians are trying to compensate for their lack
of air superiority by extensively using HIMARS and Storm Shadows to destroy as many Russian military
assets in Zaporizhia as possible. For instance, on July 11, a Storm Shadow destroyed the headquarters
of the 58th Combined Arms Army in Berdiansk, killing Lieutenant-General Oleg Tsokov, the
highest-ranking Russian general killed since the start of the war. Earlier in June, Ukraine damaged
the Chonhar bridge with a Storm Shadow missile, but Russians repaired the bridge by July 4, which
indicates the importance of this supply line for the Russian army in the Zaporizhia oblast. Other
commentators believe that the slow advance of the Ukrainian army is not deliberate, and they
are simply struggling with a densely mined frontline in the Zaporizhia oblast defended from
the air with effective Ka-52 attack helicopters. In any case, rumblings from its Western allies
indicate that the Ukrainian army would have to show tangible progress on the battlefield
to continue relying on Western military aid and to avoid so-called Ukraine fatigue
in Western societies and political elites. The Czech president Pavel said at the Vilnius
summit that “there is a window of opportunity this year, and that's why many of us argue let's
give Ukraine whatever they need to extend success as far as possible to have the most advantageous
position for negotiations once they start"; "I believe that by the end of this year, wherever
operations will go on will slow down because of winter, because of fatigue, because of
lack of ammunition, lack of resources, even human resources, and that might lead
on both sides to [the] conviction that it's a right time to start negotiations."
The president of Belarus, Lukashenka, told something similar to Western media: “The
situation should change by autumn and we will start talking at the negotiating table. Possibly.
Maybe not in September, but slightly later than that. I don't want to reveal this information,
but Europeans are already talking about it.” But the situation on the Zaporizhia front is
making Russian military bloggers anxious too. Some of them have claimed that Russian
units fighting in Zaporizhia are doing so without rotation, unlike the Ukrainian
army, which regularly sends fresh units to new assaults. The British intelligence has claimed
that Russia has transferred the 5th Combined Arms Army and the naval infantry units usually based
near China to the Velyka Novosilka section of the Zaporizhia front to mitigate this problem.
The commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, Major General Popov, was fired from his
position on July 12, reportedly for reporting to the Russian command about the necessity
to rotate soldiers on the Zaporizhia front, along with complaining about the lack of
counter-battery fire on the Russian side. Popov’s complaint may indicate the Russian
troops on the Zaporizhia front are indeed getting tired of constant assaults by Ukrainians
and do not have sufficient reserves to rotate. This would mean that if the Ukrainian army
achieves a decisive breakthrough on this front, Russia may struggle with deploying reserves
to contain it. Following his dismissal, Popov made a statement where he accused the Russian
military command in the style of Prigozhin: “The AFU failed to defeat our army on the front,
but the superiors hit us from the rear. They treacherously and dishonourably beheaded the army
in the most tense and difficult moment”. Even if no military commander openly supported and joined
Prigozhin in his March of Justice on Moscow, some have apparently borrowed his public relations
style. News of the Russian generals fired or arrested continues to swirl in the interwebs.
The Ukrainian army continued to maintain its presence on the left bank of Dnipro. On June
30, Russians launched an Iskander ballistic missile on the Antonivsky Bridge and Ukrainian
soldiers to destroy the Ukrainian bridgehead. The chief of the Russian occupation administration
in Kherson, Saldo, stated that the Russian Dnepr Group of Forces attacked Ukrainian forces in
the Antonivsky bridge area and cleared the left bank of Dnipro from the Ukrainian presence.
But this apparently was another propaganda story, as Ukrainians continue to control
the Dacha area north of Oleshky. Ukraine made further gains in the Bakhmut section
in this period. On July 1, the AFU advanced Along the T0513 highway north of Bakhmut, while the
3rd Assault Brigade crossed the canal west of Klischiivka to the south of Bakhmut, pushing back
the Storm Z unit and the 72nd separate motor rifle brigade from its bridgehead. On July 4-6, the
22nd Mechanized Brigade captured an important height north of Klischiivka while other Ukrainian
units made further progress towards Berkhivka and Yahidne. The methodical advance of the Ukrainian
forces on the flanks of Bakhmut has enabled the Ukrainian commander General Syrskyi to claim
that they have captured the main heights around Bakhmut, and roads leading to Bakhmut are
under the fire control of the Ukrainian army. At this point, the probable target of
the Ukrainian army is Dubovo-Vasylivka, the elevated ground to the north of
Bakhmut, along with cutting the Russian grouping in Bakhmut from the South, by liberating
Klischiivka and advancing on the T0513 highway. The liberation of Bakhmut by Ukraine is not a
given, but so far, Ukraine’s progress in this section has been encouraging. Regaining Bakhmut
after months of heavy and costly battles would be a huge propaganda win for Ukraine and negate all
Russian gains from its winter counteroffensive. Despite losing ground on other fronts, the
Russian army had some success on the North Luhansk front. Russians have been applying
heavy pressure on Kupiansk, Kreminna, Dibrove, Novoselivske and Torske sections of the front.
On July 6, the Russians captured the railway station of Novoselivske. On July 10 and 13,
news of the Russian advance towards Torske and Dibrove was reported. The Ukrainian
command will need to find a solution to the problems posed by the Russian army on this
front. Their advance on the Zaporizhia front, which appears to be the main direction of the
Ukrainian counter-offensive, has been modest, and losing ground elsewhere would be bad optics for
Kyiv. Ukraine depends on Western military support, and losing ground may decrease the enthusiasm of
Western societies to supply Ukraine with weapons in what they may perceive as an unwinnable war.
But despite these concerns, western military aid continued flowing into the country while
additional pledges were made. On July 1, Spanish prime-minister Sanchez announced a 55
million euro military aid package, while Ukrainian and Slovakian arms factories agreed on producing
new 155-mm self-propelled guns. On 5 July, the Dutch government announced the second support
package 2023 for Ukraine worth 118 million euros. It will be dedicated to the humanitarian
and infrastructural needs of Ukraine. On July 6, the Ukrainian brigadier general Gromov
stated that Ukraine expects Turkish T-155 Firtina self-propelled howitzers, while Finland pledged
more anti-aircraft weapons and ammunition worth 105 million euros. On July 7, the USA announced
yet another military aid package for Ukraine, which includes 32 Bradley infantry fighting
vehicles, 32 Stryker armored fighting vehicles, more munition for Patriot and HIMARS systems,
AIM-7 anti-aircraft missiles, Stinger and Javelin anti-tank weapons, 31 155-mm howitzers, 105-mm
and 155-mm artillery shells, demining equipment, Penguin UAVs, tactical vehicles and
most importantly DPICM cluster munition. Cluster munitions contain many bomblets, which
are let loose once the munition opens up mid-air. Bomblets explode once they hit a hard surface.
They are designed to destroy as many military targets as possible in a concentrated area
and are effective against infantry waves, entrenched targets and even armored vehicles. The
United States has been criticized for its decision to supply Ukraine with cluster munitions
by human rights groups and its allies, which have signed the Convention on Cluster
Munitions. The Convention prohibits the use of cluster munitions due to their deadly impact
on civilians, sometimes long after the war, since not all bomblets inside cluster munitions detonate
immediately after the impact with a hard surface. None of the United States, Russia and Ukraine
have joined the convention. Russia has already used cluster munitions in Ukraine on numerous
occasions, which have been documented. Ukraine hopes that using DPICM as their artillery
munition will increase the effectiveness of their artillery fire by greatly enhancing their
lethality. They are likely to be effective against Russian trenches simply by virtue of being capable
of harming more soldiers in a concentrated area. Ukraine has already started using DPICM.
Also on July 7, Czechia pledged more helicopters and ammunition for Ukraine, while
Germany announced a new military aid package, which includes Beaver armored bridgelayer, DACHS
engineering armored vehicle, 6 HX81 heavy-duty tractors, anti-drone sensors and tools for radio
interference. On July 9, The Wall Street Journal claimed Poland secretly gave “about a dozen” Mi-24
attack helicopters. On July 10, the Ukrainian minister of strategic industry Kamyshin announced
that Ukraine has started building a plant which will produce Bayraktar drones, while the German
Rheinmetall corporation announced that a plant producing armored vehicles, including tanks, will
be opened within the next three months. On July 10, the South Korean Defense Ministry reported
that they sent non-lethal military aid to Ukraine. July 11 and 12 were particularly fruitful to
Ukraine due to the NATO Summit in Vilnius, which we will talk about in a bit. On these days,
France promised to send its equivalent of Storm Shadow - SCALP-EG long-range cruise missiles;
Australia pledged 30 Bushmaster protected mobility vehicles and E-7A Wedgetail early warning
aircraft, which will protect humanitarian and military supplies; Germany announced its intention
to transfer 2 more Patriot systems, 25 Leopard 1 tanks, 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, while
refusing to send their Taurus long-range missiles; Norway announced the increase of its Ukraine
military support fund from 240 million dollars to 930 million dollars, along with promising
2 more NASAMS air defense systems and 1000 Black Hornet microdrones; Britain pledged
more ammunition for Challenger 2 tanks, more combat and tactical vehicles; Japan
promised drone-detection system to Ukraine. On July 14, Bulgaria announced a military aid
package, which included 100 armored vehicles, while South Korea offered 52 billion dollars
to finance reconstruction projects in Ukraine. What about ATACMS and F-16? No final decision has
been made, but it seems like things are moving in the right direction for Ukraine. The Western media
has been reporting that the Biden administration is debating the supply of ATACMS and Zelensky’s
aid Yermak thinks that it is “very close”. So far, there is one documented case of Russia
shooting down a Western-made long-range missile - a British-supplied Storm Shadow,
and for now, they have not found a workable solution to counter them. ATACMS will become
another weapon in the arsenal of the Ukrainian army capable of destroying Russian supply
lines, military bases, ammunition depots, command centers and other military assets deep
in the Russian rare. There has been no official decision on transfer of F-16s to Ukraine either,
but it seems like the decision is inevitable. On July 12, the US National Security Advisor
Sullivan said that "On the F-16 fighter jets, President Biden took the decision some weeks
ago, working in close consultation with allies, to begin the training of Ukrainian pilots on
those jets. That training will take some time, and then there will be the transfer of F-16s,
likely from European countries that have excess F-16 supplies.” A day before that, Ukraine’s
defense minister Reznikov announced the creation of an international coalition to train Ukrainian
pilots on F-16. The coalition consists of Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, Luxembourg,
Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The training will start in Denmark
in August. According to the Ukrainian foreign minister Kuleba, Ukraine will get F-16 fighter
jets in the first quarter of 2024. Unfortunately, for Ukraine, they won’t get them in time for their
ongoing counter-offensive, but they will go a long way in negating Russia’s air superiority in
this war, once they enter the Ukrainian sky. So, Ukraine got good news from the perspective of
military aid from its allies during the Vilnius Summit. But, perhaps predictably, Kyiv’s hopes
of immediate accession into NATO were quashed during the summit. While many NATO members
publicly supported Ukraine’s accession to NATO, it is rumored that the US and Germany opposed
this. In the end, the decision was not to offer immediate membership to Ukraine, but to eliminate
the Membership Action Plan for Ukraine and give assurances that it will become a NATO member
after the war and once it implements membership requirements such as fighting corruption,
modernization of the state apparatus and transitioning the Ukrainian security and defense
to NATO standards. While the Ukrainian government wanted immediate accession to NATO, it would have
been too optimistic to expect all NATO members to accept Ukraine into the organization at the
time when it was fighting a war with Russia. Ukraine’s membership in NATO may have created an
unclear situation with regard to the obligations of its allies during the war with Russia. The
Biden administration continues its careful policy of balancing between supporting Ukraine
and trying to avoid escalation from Russia. The interesting development here is the activation
of Turkey in its visible support to Ukraine. Previously, Turkish president Erdogan publicly
supported Ukraine and provided some weapons to the Ukrainian army, but positioned itself as
a mediator more than anything by ensuring the grain deal and hosting talks between Ukraine and
Russia in Istanbul at the beginning of the war. On July 7, Erdogan stated, "Undoubtedly,
Ukraine deserves NATO membership, a point that I have always defended insistently.”
Then, Turkey released Azovstal POWs, whom, earlier in the war, Russia agreed to transfer
to Turkey in exchange for guarantees of their stay in Turkey until the end of the war. This
obviously infuriated the Kremlin, but there is not much Russia can do at the moment to retaliate.
Turkey is one of the few countries in the Western coalition that has maintained relations with
Russia and Ankara is buying Russia’s energy at the time when the Kremlin is losing its share in
the European market. Russia has indicated several times that it does not intend to prolong
the grain deal, but the media has reported that Turkey is willing to continue assisting
Ukraine with its grain exports by ensuring the security of the grain corridor in the Black Sea.
The internal situation remains tense for Russia too. The economic situation is difficult,
as for the first time since March 2022, the USD exchange rate went over 92 rubles. The
Wagner story continued to develop in this period. The St.Petersburg-based Fontanka reported that on
July 2, Russian authorities returned all Wagner assets they captured during the rebellion. On
July 5, Lukashenka stated that neither Prigozhin, nor Wagner fighters were in Belarus yet. 2 days
later, a Wagner commander code-named Lotos told in an interview that they would go to Belarus
after resting in August. However, on July 14, the Belarus state media claimed that Wagner commanders
were already in Belarus and had started training the territorial defense units of Belarus. On July
10, a sensational news story came out in Russia. Apparently, Putin met with Prigozhin and
key Wagner commanders 5 days after the rebellion on June 29. Both Putin and Prigozhin
confirmed that this meeting indeed took place. According to Putin’s spokesperson Peskov, the
Russian president talked about the rebellion with Wagnerites, offered them contracts in the
army, who expressed their support to Putin. Later Putin personally commented on this meeting
making truly surprising statements. According to Putin, he offered all wagnerites to remain
together and fight under their commanders, to which apparently many wagnerites nodded
in support, only for Prigozhin to say: “No, the guys do not agree with this decision”. The
fact that Prigozhin got his money back, then met with Putin and openly rejected his offer, which
for some reason Putin admitted personally, only a few days after an armed rebellion against him
killing several Russian servicemen and destroying several helicopters is truly astonishing.
Putin defeated Prigozhin’s rebellion, but for some reason continues to appease him instead of
dealing with him and punishing him like he would have probably done in his prime as a strongman.
This is all happening, while Surovikin and several of his aides still remain incommunicado,
perhaps in prison. Despite rumors of dismissal, Gerasimov is also still making media appearances
as the chief of staff of the Russian military. But it has not been all bad news for Russia in this
period. According to Ukrainian sources, Russia and Iran agreed on opening a plant to produce Iranian
drones in the Republic of Tatarstan. Iranian-made drones continue to harass Ukraine’s airspace
and keep the Ukrainian air defense busy. Also, according to Reznikov, Russians have learnt to
jam HIMARS by developing their electronic warfare systems. He has urged Ukraine’s Western partners
to develop a countermeasure to this new problem. According to the Institute for
the Study of War, as of July 9, Ukraine liberated 253 square kilometers since
the start of their counteroffensive. In contrast, Russia has captured 282 square kilometres since
January 1. The independent Russian media outlets Meduza and Mediazona has conducted a study
joint with the statistician Dmitry Kobak, in which they calculated that roughly 47k Russian
soldiers have died since the start of the war in Ukraine. The study is based on the National
Probate Registry records and does not take pro-Russian proxies in separatist regimes and
missing or captured persons into the equation. Ukrainian sources claim that the actual
figures are actually much larger, but there is no way to know this
for sure at this point in the war. Now let’s look at visually confirmed losses
on both sides provided by the Oryx blog. For Russia, these are 2125 tanks, 4321 vehicles,
247 command posts and communication stations, 809 artillery systems and vehicles, 237 multiple
rocket launchers, 83 aircraft, 99 helicopters, and 266 drones. For Ukraine, these are 573
tanks, 1749 vehicles, 15 command posts and communication stations, 335 artillery systems
and vehicles, 47 multiple rocket launchers, 68 aircraft, 31 helicopters, and 152 drones.
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