Russia as a Great Power & Space Wars | George Friedman

first we have discovered that russia is not a  great power its economy ranks behind south korea's   it is a weak economy its military  has shown itself to be incapable   of adequate planning or the execution of  a war even at a country as weak as ukraine   so our vision of what russia was already damaged  in 1991 uh that vision is now double down and   whatever the russians say we know they couldn't  take kiev we know that they couldn't take ukraine   we know that they couldn't survive the sanctions  without stumbling and a third element emerged   which i was surprised by the re-emergence of  american power power and not military but economic   the power of the dollar when  it was denied to the russians   when that denial was joined by the europeans when  it was joined by japan by a worldwide coalition crushed i would say russia's capability to make  war those wars are expensive in addition to that   the united states discovered that it was a leader  of a leader of coalitions of nato of course   of knight of china as well of  australia so on and so forth   that when the war came there the  united states discovered it could lead   something it had forgotten and had also discovered  that it could wage war without shooting which was   a very important thing to do so the united states  stood back did not engage supported the ukrainians   and made it impossible for the russians to convert  rubles to dollars at the federal reserve bank   and that was the discovery of a new sort of  power which was always there but we didn't know so where we are now is a very  important place we've entered a new era   but we can see that we've entered in that era  only by looking backwards in looking backwards   we see this is different from 1945 looking  backwards we can see this is different from 1991   and therefore by looking backwards we'd see  what's new if you can't look backwards you   can't imagine what's new and what are the things  that the americans have are learning in this well   the most important question that the americans  are learning in this is the centrality of space if we want to know what the russians  are doing they can't hide it   from space we can see them we always knew this but  this is a war in which we could operationalize it   and if the russians could they would destroy  our satellites which they always claimed to   be able to do but they couldn't and so where  does war go now well war went with the iphone   into tactical operations on the face of  the earth now we are in a different time   where the real issue is not what happens on the  face of the earth what happens in space from space   we can see the ground and on the ground we can  see soldiers and the soldiers we have seen we   can order to be killed by weapons in space  or weapons on the ground or what have you   so the geopolitical shift that we see coming  out of this one that will last forever   is that we have now entered space warfare we've  been there really for a very long time being able   to spot soviet satellites or chinese satellites  they're being able to spot ours but now space   is bound up with warfare on the ground and  therefore the enemy we have whoever it is   must destroy our capabilities in space to  command the earth you must command space   to command to see you must command space we  talk about artificial intelligence and i'm   not sure what that is i assume that's very  good but from a geopolitical point of view   we think well enough we don't need help what we  need is space-based systems and the important   thing about space-based systems and  i once met your minister of space   a very pleasant meeting and you went to mars  perhaps not on your own technology but you went   a small nation can become a force in space  because it doesn't require a hundred thousand men   in uniform but maybe 200 to take the technologies  that already exist and create something from it   so when we talk about technology and war in  in general it comes from war we can go back   to steamships we can go back to many things but  war creates technology because when you go to war   one you spend money and two it's life and death  and so you get results we're in a new period   we have seen the decline of russia  and we are seeing the decline of china   yes you will laugh at that idea but you would  have laughed when i said russia was finished   china is now in its economic its final crisis when the united states began to be  an economic power in 1919 in 20 1890   it began by selling low-cost cheap products to the  world by the year 2000 the united states sold one   half of all manufactured products in the world  by 1930 it collapsed economically 40 years later   the great depression it was up it recovered japan  in 1950 began its role as a chief producer it   became an enormous economic power and by 1990 40  years later it collapsed the chinese economic pool the chinese economic boom really ran for 40 years  and now we see the chinese economy staggering   unable to pay its debts it's 35 of its economy is  real estate and the largest real estate companies   are defaulting on their debts we will all think  this doesn't mean anything when the united states   went into its crisis we thought it doesn't  mean anything they'll be better in a week when   japan went into its crisis we all thought well  they'll be better in a week but they won't be   they will not collapse their great power they will  come out of it but not in less than 10 years as   the other said and therefore what we have to look  at there is that china is weakened and weakening   whatever it says russia is weak in the weakening  and the united states is emerging but that cannot   be the only power so i will name three powers to  you that i expect to rise and some of them you   will laugh at because i'm always laughed  at that's fine one is japan the world's   third largest economy a significant military  and the united population number two poland   we're already seeing poland emerge in europe  in this war as the decisive power as the leader and turkey which was in a terrible economic crisis  and is emerging but is a pivot i can't explain why   i pick these countries but i picked them 10 years  ago they said they would emerge in 40 years in   40 years and 10 years ago i said russia would  not be able to hold together after 2020 and   china would be an economic crisis people laughed  at me i like people laughing at me i like to win   so anyway look at this next 50 years it will not  look like the last 50 years it will not have the   same technology it would not have the same culture  it will not have the same players do not expect   that the next 50 years will be like this only  more so you've seen the way the world changes and   i have confidence that this country this  to be very strange and interesting country   has the capability of making its  own way in that world i thank you at this time passing zero seven zero  four one four zero rtb linking via septum you

Channel: GEONOW

Views: 7,448

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Id: PUvWnMHIhJY

Length: 10min 29sec (629 seconds)

Published: Sat Apr 09 2022