Omicron - UK Large Surge Expected, Delta Dominance Ending (UK Reports)

all this is dr mobien syed from doctorbean.com welcome to one more show so this discussion is about a report from uk so there is a professor from uk that has said that it is possible that having or catching omicron may act as a natural vaccine for those who are unvaccinated so i'm going to look at that report i'm also going to look at the predictions for the uk and the possible incorrect inaccuracy in those prediction possible inaccuracies and then there is a question as well which i would answer in the next chat that question is very common has been asked by many folks and vicky over here is saying it as well and that is if a micron does prove to be mild is there a chance it can then mutate back to a more severe variant at some point i'm going to give you a short answer now no and then i'm going to explain it in the next talk for why not with the mechanism so with this let's start our uh quick review of why they are saying that this may be a natural vaccine so here is the article so this is all from uk this is the article telegraphed at co uk uh just some pieces of information from here uk records 633 new omicron cases the uk has recorded a further 633 cases of omicron covet variant in the past 24 hours new data from the uk hsa shows this brings the total number of confirmed omicron cases across uk to 1898. now please remember when you are applying south africa's data to uk uk's average age is different co-morbidities are different vaccination statuses are different so the communities are not one-to-one so the behavior of the umicron could be different as well i'm kind of very curious to see how it behaves in countries like uk us uh where vaccination israel okay so this is one information next this is a data model that has predicted this is the same article instead of scrolling through it and having you listen to the mouse's sound i have just opened up various parts of the same article in different tabs so here hospitalization could be around twice as high as the previous january peak without more stringent restrictions while deaths from omicron could reach anywhere between 25 000 to 75 000 in england over the next five months this is the modeling system that is modeling it and then i want to show here that finishing my thought on this one experts from the london school of hygiene and tropical medicine predicted a large wave of infections in january and said tougher covet restrictions may be needed to prevent omicron causing anywhere between 25 000 to 75 000 deaths in england over the next five months now check this out professor paul hunter a professor in medicine at the university of east anglia said although we will not know for certain for a few weeks indications from south africa do suggest that umicron does cause a less severe disease than delta so that means modelling cannot just use delta's numbers if a micron is indeed associated with less severe disease as is in my view likely to be the case then these models would overestimate hospital admissions and deaths possibly substantially he added as better data becomes available in coming weeks we can expect these models to be refined so this is an important thing that we cannot just start reacting yes the communities are different but not so different that we treat umicron like delta at least so far that that is how the data looks like maybe in uk it would behave like data delta i pray not okay so this is the important one catching the omicron variant could act as a natural vaccine among people who are currently unvaccinated against coronavirus and immunologist has suggested illinois riley a professor of immunology and infectious diseases at the university of edinburgh said the britons are very likely to contract the variant in the next couple of weeks everybody is very likely to experience it in the next few weeks if it is milder and we know infections induce an immune response which is going to happen immune response is going to occur either way it is possible that this could act as a natural vaccine getting to those people who have so far been unwilling to be vaccinated professor riley told bbc radio 4 but i think we have to exercise a huge degree of caution with that because there's a huge if about this is it milder i would add or not and i think it is very dangerous to compare data from south africa to the uk in south africa population there's been so many waves of infection they've gone through lots of immunity and much younger population so this is the very very interesting thing for me i have been thinking about it and i deliberately did not say it because it is too early however i think we are now three weeks into it at least for south africa it is acting as a national vaccine now for uk will it do that or not we would have to see as the cases develop in uk and as we see the progression of those cases i pray that everyone stays safe and healthy it is not a game so here i wanted to answer a couple of questions one is why is it displacing delta i am still getting messages from folks who are still surprised that it is displacing delta many folks think that delta and omicron will stay together in a person and then they would be shed together as well and i wanted to from a mechanism point of view i wanted to discuss that that is not possible so here is how delta is getting displaced or in general a virus that is less transmissible compared to a virus that is more transmissible and they both are using the same as two they both are variants of the same species so they they're they're same things just differently transmissible so here is what happens this is a cell in this cell both viruses want to enter and there is this is true enzyme and imagine this is a person who is co-inhabited by delta and omicron how maybe that person already had delta and was asymptomatic and then he got exposed to umicron as well and now has both of them what will happen is that as these viruses are standing next to each other and they are trying to enter a cell micron has a better affinity to bind with the ace2 so it would bind with more force and faster and as soon as it would do that delta will not have a chance to enter now this i had discussed this last time as well this was a skyfrog's question the one part that i had left out is what will happen to this delta that is standing outside so this omicron has entered the cell it is going to go in there divide make more babies and then come out and go to the next cell and it would continue to do that meanwhile the delta that is standing out there it has many options one of the option is that maybe this cell is not available and another cell is available maybe another receptor is available and it is also able to get into the cell so some deltas would do that the other deltas who are just standing there saying what the heck where do i go i am not getting a chance to get into this cell remember they are vulnerable over here they are very vulnerable what are they vulnerable to the cops the immune system so macrophage is going to come over and eat it up or a neutrophil is going to eat it up or some other immune system cell or protein or antibody or complement system is going to quote it and this guy is totally dead he's already crying you say i'm gone i am a gunner i am dead meat why because standing out in the in the alley is not profitable for a virus this virus is going to be taken away if it is in the mouth possibly igas would attack it macrophages would attack it dendritic cells would attack it neutrophils would attack that and this would be destroyed when it would be destroyed it would still be useful for us because it would help create immunity but it would not really survive so now imagine that there are some deltas and some omicrons they're all going through the cells all are getting an opportunity to go through the cell you would see that every time omicrons would very rapidly enter the cells some deltas would enter and others would be standing outside the ones that are standing outside would be eliminated then out of those that have entered the cell they would give rise to some more delta there will be a lot more omicrons those microns would come out and again win over delta to get to the next cells once again deltas would be sitting outside and as immunity continues to build up more antibodies and complements are available these deltas are gone so delta would actually be eliminated so when it is eliminated the shedding may occur but very small amounts and the same behavior would occur in the next person too so delta may percolate in the system for some more time and then be eliminated and that is what happened to the previous ancestors then we also know that the antibody binding why is umicron transmissible one it has more attraction for the h2 or binding affinity is high it has less binding affinity with antibodies so it can escape an antibody and enter a cell luckily it does not cause too much of an immune response generally maybe because it escapes the antibodies while those antibodies are going to be attacking this delta similarly t cell receptors omicron is still 80 percent a target for the t cell receptor it is still fine t cell receptors can still kill it but even if there is 20 drop in efficacy that extra t cells are gonna attack deltas delta has no friend once omicron is in our body then remember we used to use have this discussion this has been have we've been doing this for one and a half year now that whenever a virus produces babies or replicates creates new viruses the daughters that are produced a lot of daughters would be similar to the parent and their behavior will be similar some of them will be more transmissible and that is what let's say an omicron's behavior is now you're seeing in real life what such behavior can do some of them will be more lethal the one that are more lethal cannot survive because they would die with the people so they are not more transmissible and so they would be in a smaller community or maybe even the same person and they would be eliminated so this is the discussion for this chat i'm gonna come back in five minutes and answer this question that can omicron become converted again to a more lethal variant so thank you very much and if you would like to help please your fee is one like and subscribe so like subscribe and share and if you would like to support this work not for omikron i have been saying it for a few days now not just for the omicrons or pandemic but this kind of work is necessary for healthcare students so that they can do better with their patients i think this is a deficiency in the medical education that clarity of the concept is not there so if you would like to support that there is there are links in the description you can buy me a coffee or you can use paypal or you can become a patron thank you very much and i would see you in another few minutes

Channel: Drbeen Medical Lectures

Views: 195,060

Keywords:

Id: _bWQcl8cSY8

Length: 13min 19sec (799 seconds)

Published: Sat Dec 11 2021