Lok Sabha Prediction | ‘Big Question: Will BJP Cross Majority Mark?’ - Sanjay Kumar, CSDS

and at the moment the entire discussion is whether NDA will get a majority or BJP will get a majority I think BJP is finding it difficult to convince the voter in different state to vote for the BJP so if NDA is suffering a loss it is largely the loss of its allies not the BJP Ram Mand e Foria has subsided uh drastically now the poor sections of the voters are voting more in favor of BJP compared to what it used to be in the past [Music] hello everyone this is the India story The Road to 2024 and we are pausing from being out on the road just for a day or two to try and take stock of where exactly we are five phases of voting done which means there just about 110 seats left to go but don't rule out what is still to come in phase six and phase seven because there could be some really really tough and interesting battles in the in the streats that are still to go but to get a sense of what is actually happening who better to talk to than Sanjay Kumar of csts um Sanjay you and I have been talking at Great length all the way from what December January about what's happening it was looking like an election that was all done in dust a referendum when Prime Minister Modi 300 plus for the BJP while why are we paying any attention in fact I remember you even saying that to me why are we even wasting any time on this election um it's turned out to be a little bit more interesting than that hasn't it absolutely I agree Vikram that uh what we saw happening in January things seems to have changed in the middle of May when we are completing the fifth round of polling so I think there is a lot of change on the ground uh which maybe I didn't anticipate and maybe few others didn't anticipate so yes I agree that there are changes in how elections are being contested what it looked like as if a national election is turning out to be a very statewise election and even a local election and that is actually changed the tone and tenor of this election you know the point that you're making right now is the one overall takeaway that I would have also and it's got important bearings because when we were saying it's a really boring election way back in January or February it is because we assumed that the BJP was is going to make this a national referendum Modi versus who and on that question it's a very simple answer and therefore they were going to be romping home the fact that as you are saying it's become more of a statewise election or a collection of State elections and sometimes even local elections is that that is where the opposition seems to feel it's got a bit of an opportunity maybe not a decisive opportunity but a bit of an opportunity absolutely I think if you look at the elections in the 90s late 90s early 20s we look at 20 2004 loab election 2009 loab election and a few elections before that 99 or 98 what was happening is that uh except 2019 that you know there was a big National narrative and then BJP managed to uh win a huge majority but I'm talking about that Coalition era I'm not saying that we are heading into that era again but what was happening is that there was the were the big National was missing in these election and elections were being contested on the state on the state issues and even within the State issue state within the constituency there were different issues so I think the big change which has taken place during last couple of months is that we anticipated at least I anticipated that Ram Mand referendum on article 370 would be uh the election will move in the direction but I don't see the Eco of these two issues it's more about the you know plank which Congress set up in a sense about the Constitution about social justice so these are the issues on which people are actually more concerned and they're voting they're shaping their voting decision more on these issues rather than the big issue of Mand uh article 370 or even countries image in the world so s what you're saying is interesting because if you look at what happened in 2014 and 2019 those were extraordinary elections those were wave elections the election in 2014 to make Narendra Modi the Prime Minister and throw out the Congress 2019 reelect Narendra Modi pulama balakot the labaris um if it's not a wave election then what is the base for a party doing really well because people were winning elections all through the 2000s late 1990s on much lower seats right 230 24250 was considered a very good d uh See since we don't see a wave we don't see a national narrative I think BJP is finding it difficult to convince the voter in different state to vote for the BJP so what has happened is that the regional parties are standing up very firmly against the BJP in many state and that is why if you see Regional parties standing up very strongly because BJP faces a tough Challenge from the regional party so if Regional parties seems to be doing well that would mean some damage to the BJP in 2024 at least this is what is the sense which we are getting from the five phases of polling which is getting over today okay so Regional parties you think of the BJP are doing well there two other crucial battles there's a certain view that I'm hearing that in States like Maharashtra or Bihar the BJP itself will be okay or maybe drop two or three seats it's their allies the jdu or the shivsena shindai group or Ajit pad those are the weak ones they'll drop the BJP may drop a little bit but not that much is that what you're picking up very early to say but but yes generally we can say because we are talking about NDA we are talking about BJP so look BJP is contesting 17 seats in Bihar and uh BJP has emerged very strong if I look at politics of biar during last you know one decade or so so BJP may not be suffering losses in Bihar on its own but given the you know turnaround which nitish Kumar has made shifting from one party to another His Image has certainly got dented so if NDA is suffering a loss it is largely the loss of its allies not the BJP that is what I expect to happen in Bihar when it comes to Maharashtra so we know that in Maharashtra the two Regional parties got split uh we are talking about NCP and Shiva so BJP is holding on BJP Still Remains the largest party to my opinion so BJP may be able to hold on but given the split in NCP and Shiva the NDA will definitely suffer a loss because should not forget 2019 n did extremely well in both in Bihar 39 out of 40 and 41 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra so India set for losing some seats in these two State it's difficult for uh NDA to make gains in these two states okay the other the other two states that you and I have been talking about all the way from January is cartica where the BJP itself might be dropping some seats and West Bengal where I'm hearing all three versions BJP will lose a couple of seats BJP will pick up a few seats it'll be the same as last time uh Karnataka see Congress has registered a victory in Karnataka Congress has a government in Karnataka and we should not forget that Congress has a very strong two strong Regional leaders of of the party both the CM and the deputy CM I think they have been they have they have fought a for a strong battle against the BJP in Karnataka also we should not forget that if you look at Karnataka BJP had won 25 out of the 28 seat and if you add the its current Ally JDS then BJP was holding NDA was having 26 out of 28 seat so there is only scope for BJP to go down this time BJP is only contesting 25 seats 20 BJP had 125 seat so the only possibility for BJP is to lose the only question is how my own sense is that maybe BJP would be losing some seats in k that's for sure because they cannot improve upon its tally of 25 which they won in 2019 when it comes to Bengal I think Bengal still three phases to go if we look at the fifth phase which is happening today by evening that will get over so fifth sixth and seventh these are the crucial phases we do get a sense that it is a contest clean Kean contest between trino Congress and BJP in Bengal uh very difficult to say at this moment uh you know which party is inching ahead compared to the other party but yes a keen contest in Bengal between BJP on one side and trinal Congress on the other side the places where the BJP would hope to pick up some seats from last time urisa maybe telingana maybe Andhra Pradesh maybe put together maybe 8 to 10 seats is what I think the BJP might be hoping for picking up from last time I would agree because in Telangana uh Congress has former government BRS got defeated and this is the Loa election even though BRS did get sizable number of votes in the Assembly Election but this is a Loa election it seems that there was a direct contest between BJP and Congress BJP had won four seats in the 2019 Loa election Telangana the only scope for the BJP is to improve upon its tally telengana has 17 seats so I think in a direct contest between BJP and Congress uh the large number of seats will get divided between BJP and Congress and BJP seems to stands to gain some seat that is the situation more or less in urisa because Congress is almost on the margins and it is a direct contest between the bjd and BJP BJP had won eight seats in the 2019 loab election in urisa uh I do get a sense that BJP and look at the way Prime Minister Modi has been campaigning in urisa my own sense is that BJP might emerge slightly stronger in urisa compared to what happened in 2019 Andra uh BJP is a very marginal player but BJP has been good enough to form an alliance with the TDP there is a very keen contest between TDP and vrcp but I think the scale seems to be tilted in favor of TDP and BJP stands to gain few seats in Andra as well so I would agree what you said vickram that BJP may be gaining in these four seats few seats here and there whether it is telengana urisa Bengal uh and Andra one last area that I want to just draw your attention to is Rajasthan harana and and Delhi Rajasthan of course is finished people are saying maybe BJP loses five seats six seats something like that out there harana and Delhi still up for grabs and it could be an interesting battle out here they virtually sept this entire thing but maybe a few seats down here as well is what some of the experts seem to be saying uh no you're right that uh the Delhi and harana still has goes to uh goes to PO in the sixth phase so I think given the mood of the of the electorate nationally BJP is still on an on an edge in say Delhi or in harana I am not sure how much BJP will lose or not lose but I think BJP is facing a tough challenge in Delhi from the op Congress Alliance even in harana I think BJP is not in a very very comfortable position har Rajasthan the elections has been over 25 seats are there in Rajasthan remember in Rajasthan BJP had won out of 25 in two consecutive loab elections 2014 and 2019 the only possibility for BJP is to lose they cannot gain and there is a possibility given the mood on the ground that BJP may be losing some seat how many very difficult to say at this moment but yes BJP stands to lose some seats in harana some seats in Rajasthan not sure what happens in Delhi right last last state that I want to draw your attention to is uttar Pradesh where at least there's a section of people who are believing that especially in places like purvanchal what will the dalit voters do the issue that you were talking about the sdan bsp is not putting up a strong battle will some of the the mayavati supporters especially among the jatav and Niki you know sort of going across to the alliance is that a possibility how do you see utar Pradesh was what 62 plus two for the upad last time up down sideways uh one thing is very visible in in up uh I had expected that the ram Mand Euphoria would be sweeping the entire state if not the entire State at least uh the Central and the eastern part of up that doesn't seems to be happening Ram Mand eforia has subu sub subsided uh drastically and that is not going in the favor of the BJP BJP is finding it difficult because they had hoped that they would be riding on the back of rami's popularity and you know people would be people may be voting more in favor of BJP compared to 2019 but that's missing so the election has become more localized the election is more on the issue of social justice it's more about Coalition it's more about cast alliances so election becoming uh the election being contested on cast issues OBC OBC the delit issues uh BJP has been put in a slight tight position by the samajwadi party Congress Alliance bsp is also eating up some votes so not BJP is not finding as comfortable as BJP would have expected maybe a couple of months ago so some challenges for BJP in up as well last question you know one thing which the BJP will feel it has got some cushion from so we we've heard some of the issues that might be you know causing the election to change a little bit but the women vote and in particular that 5 kilogram ration fact that women have been great supporters of Prime Minister Modi so the Modi Factor the connection with the mahila factor is that something that you think will eventually be the Saving Grace for the BJP in these elections across the country difficult to say what do we mean by the Saving Grace does it mean BJP coming to power with a very small margin BJP getting a majority of its own or BJP Crossing 300 plus uh yes some factors will go to the advantage of BJP one which has been mentioned by you if that was not the issue if if there if nothing was going in favor of BJP then BJP would have slipped down further but I think some issues do go in favor of BJP uh whether it is about Law and Order good Law and Order situation in up or free ration Etc so I do get a sense that now the poor sections of the voters are voting more in favor of BJP compared to what it used to be in the past if I compare it with 2019 or 2014 election so that's I I think would be a Saving Grace or that's still adding strength to to the B so food free food grain food free ration scheme might help BJP in you know holding the tide which seems to be slipping or moving away from the BJP so in the final analysis San I had to ask you when we began this entire think the question was about Char was 370 for the BJP then it became is the BJP going to be 300 330 thereabouts now are you saying it is it battle for 300 plus for the BJP or is it a battle to say get two of the majority Mark 272 is that the real hurdle now look at how the discussion has changed in the entire media and the media is picking up from the ground as well there was a time couple of months ago we were all debating about whether BJP will get 370 on its own and NDA will get three 400 plus on its own or not so there was the entire debate around I think things have moved very very things have moved away from that and at the moment the entire discussion is whether BJP will get a majority on its own or not whether NDA will get a majority or BJP will get a majority so certainly things seems to have changed on the ground and the entire focus is now on whether BJP may be able to get a majority on its own or will NDA get a majority you're saying even that's a subject of doubt the NDA getting a majority of its own you think that's also still in question no I'm not saying no I'm not saying I'm not saying that it is a sub of Doubt but I think the question is whether BJP is getting a majority upon that's the issue which is being discussed at the moment okay but the BJP will get a majority on its Sanjay thank you so much for joining us really interesting election 14 days to go still two phases of voting to go let's see what happens it's going to I think be a state by state seat by seat tussle hope to catch up with you again to get a sense of what's Happening thank you so much [Music]

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Length: 17min 45sec (1065 seconds)

Published: Mon May 20 2024