Yogendra Yadav Makes Big Statement Over BJP's '400 Paar' Claim | Lok Sabha Elections 2024 Updates

and yogendra yadav I'll give you the first shot since you've said the most controversial statement on Twitter you've claimed that the BJP will be less than 250 and the NDA less than 272 is this Wishful Thinking by someone who's seen as a Critic of the Modi government what is the basis why you saying that you believe that the BJP is falling behind Raj let me Begin by stating very clearly upfront that I'm no longer a apologist I used to be one I'm a political worker uh political workers need not be Liars they can try and get and I try really try very hard to keep my hopes and my assessment separate so what I'm offering is the assessment which I have made after traveling I don't have any exit pole with me uh it's a ground assessment based on the on on the basis of travels on the basis of listening reading speaking finding out that's all that it is and what I have said is the following when the elections began I said I wrote that it is possible to bring BJP below 272 but I wasn't sure if that was actually going to happen because I didn't think opposition was doing what was needed to bring BJP below 272 when elections came closer round one and round two and I started traveling I saw something was changing on the ground and then I started saying maybe BJP is coming below 272 and after the third round and after my travel and my travel specifically let me again put everything on the table I've gone to Rajasthan Punjab harana utar Pradesh Bihar Telangana Karnataka and chatis gar other places based on what I've heard what I've spoken to uh on that basis my assessment today is that BJP it's not only possible BJP indeed is below 272 as of now things the way they are going my assessment is that they are below 272 and for the first time it has appeared to me that NDA could be below 272 uh in what you've seen the Twitter the video that I've posted that puts it 268 but Raj let me be quite straight about it I don't have any such instrument with me on the basis of which I can say exactly 268 and not 278 not 288 or not 248 no I don't have that these are very broad estimate and all what I'm saying means is that we can be more or less certain now that BJP is much below 272 and that it's an open question whether even NDA could form a majority so broadly what I'm saying is the idea that BJP could up the seats from 2019 mhm that can be completely ruled out that is simply not true okay BJP to my mind is unable to retain what it had in 2019 it's coming down how much is it coming down that's something open to debate we can discuss it I have one assessment others can have different assessment I'll come to your specifics later in the show but surjit Bala you had stuck your neck out soon after your book was released you believed that the BJP would be more than 300 and the NDA more than 350 are you still sticking to that after four rounds of the battle for 2024 surjit yeah thank you Raj for having me actually you said citizen Raj that's my old book this is the new book how we my apologies yeah um and yes I'm very much sticking to what the forecast is um in how we vote which was done in somewhere around February quite honestly I don't you know if anybody were to read the book and I suggest all of you do it that I base it on economic performance primarily and that's how people vote indeed the last line of my book is is the economy stupid um which of as you know comes from none other than Bill Clinton in his 1992 campaign so looking around at the first four phases obviously like you and like all election junkies I'm following it very closely I haven't seen any sign to the vines the forecast now you're going to have seen a lot of signs to bring it down I haven't seen any signs to bring it down at all and that's why you have horse races MH because people have different views on events on on for cost and we'll all have to wait and see till Jan June 4th as to which one of us is more accurate and I'm waiting to hear what pip has to say um but basically the economy every sign of the economy every data point that we received on the economy is reinforcing that it really is doing very well so um I'm afraid I don't see much uh Reas to bring down or to change my forecast in any way it remains 330 to 350 for the BJP on its home okay I'm going to again come back to you also for specifics because when you say 330 to 350 that means the BJP is doing even better than last time and I'm going to ask you to remember to pick up where you believe they'll grow but pradep Gupta you're the only one out of us who's doing a poll and I know because of regulations you cannot reveal the numbers and of course you've got an exit Pole or we have an exit pole coming up with you on the 1st of June so we'll keep the suspense for that but I want to answer you went on a last after the third round and said Z and immediately that went viral to say prep Gupta is saying 2024 is a repeat of 2019 can you clarify is pradep Gupta saying that 2024 could be could could be a repeat or is likely to be a repeat of 2019 I want Clarity so Raj let me tell you at access my India or pradep Gupta for that matter what surjit G said is not supposed to reveal release say anything as far as the numbers goes because of ECI guidelines so we'll have to wait till the last vote cast till that time e even even I do not have any kind of numbers whatsoever that's me let me clarify very candidly now second thing you asked the ashak channel and sudhir Chri G asked me some questions and I replied he simply that's what I said and that's it no so are you saying B fair means what that there is no great change that you're seeing compared to 2019 that's why people are saying pradep Gupta is saying BJP Still Remains in po position when I say as far as 2019 numbers go if I say anything on these lines in a way in a way I'm saying some kind of number which I am not I'm not asking you for a number I am saying you're saying so far you forget the numbers I'm not asking you that I'm not asking you to go into that I'm saying is pradep Gupta saying that he is seeing no signs of major change in this country at the moment that's all I'm asking yes I am saying so you are saying that pradep Gupta is not seeing any signs of major change in this country I emphasize the word major nothing to do with numbers nothing to do with numbers but you're saying you're not seeing any major change between voting trends of 2019 and 24 correct correct okay that's the closest that pradep is going to come to tell us that therefore it could well be Advantage BJP the only reason I'm saying this is my interpretation because remember BJP got 303 seats last time the NDA got 353 when pradep Gupta says that there could be no major changes effectively at least party number one there is no doubt in now again people can interpret it even major changes with the upside down that's the meaning I know at least when somebody say that is something I I I I don't see at all on the ground okay yogendra yadav therefore you've got pradep Gupta saying no major change now you are the one who's saying on this show major change can you tell us and we've had a fourth round today where the major changes you're seeing which are those states where you believe this election is turning because you're clearly saying this election has turned uh Raj let me Begin by expressing my agreement with both the panelists In This Very civilized conversation which is so rare on television number one I actually completely agree with Dr Bala it's the economy stupid uh both of us agree with this I think the only difference that both of us have is uh which direction the economy has gone and who exactly is stupid we have a minor difference on that because what I heard Raj when I traveled and I you know you can tell me because you've probably traveled a little more than I have when I hear from people talk about you know what's motivating their elections the only thing related to economy that goes in Mr modi's favor is Russian people give him credit for giving cheap Russian free Russian Supply L across in a universal manner but if you press a Modi voter and say why are you voting for Mr Modi they actually don't mention anything to do with the economy to begin with all of them said that's one thing I hear second thing I hear is 370 Kashmir third thing I hear is Ram now to my mind these three are not economy related issues however when people talk of economy and that's where I agree with Dr balar to my mind the decisive thing is what people feel about economy and at least I hear them speaking about mangi I hear them speaking about be roari I hear them speaking about what's happening to kissan I hear them speaking about what's happening in examinations about uh the real life issues and on most of these are weigh against the BJP uh I don't know if most of the voters that I met knew much about GDP probably they didn't uh but they knew something about what's happening to their own family their own economy and what's happened and they were quite angry uh on what Mr Pradip Gupta said the reason I agree with him is that I'm also not saying UL fair in the sense that uh this is not a 1977 election you know uh this is not an election where at least at this stage I don't think BJP is going below 200 I don't think BJP is taking that kind of a Thresh no but to my mind it is a significant change and the significant change is this that BJP there is a significant swing against the BJP from Gujarat to Bihar this entire belt that the BJP had swept and add to it Karnataka as well that may or may not result in seat change in different places in Gujarat the margin is so big uh that the swing may not affect very many seats but in Rajasthan especially in eastern Rajasthan it will affect seats in harana it will affect seats and in utar Pradesh and Bihar as well it is affecting significant number of seats uh which is to say so my estimate that you refer to very kindly was that BJP could go down by 70 seats compared to 2 uh uh compared to 2019 and I suspect Raj deep you and I remember 2004 I mean I'm saying I'm taking the liberty of saying that because we were together at that time in a channel working and sharing notes every evening and remember what happened in 2004 every pollster got the figures and they were in and pollsters do not get a precise number they get a range and every pollster was giving margin of error adjusting margin of error in bjp's favor in every single state therefore every pollster had an in flated figure for the BJP even after they had polls in reality something very different happened I would not be surprised if that kind of a thing happens however I do not expect uh you know India with a 300 plus seats no that kind of a ol fair I also don't expect

Channel: India Today

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Id: 680skHihMSU

Length: 13min 47sec (827 seconds)

Published: Mon May 13 2024