Lok Sabha 2024 Prediction By Yashwant Deshmukh, C-Voter | Vikram Chandra | The India Story

Congress shows the sign of Revival Maharashtra is a basket case it's a it's a headache for all the analyst journalist posters alike utar Pradesh happens to be the only state where BJP has repeated big number of non-performing effs significantly the samajwadi party I would say given very less number of tickets to Muslims and yadavs hello everyone this is the India Story Road to 2024 I mean the road is more or less coming to an end as we approach the last two phases of of voting now so we're not talking to the experts we're talking to the people whom we've really been getting a sense of on what's Happening the election to try and put together what the final piece what the final jigsaw is going to look like final answer of course it will always be only known on the 4th of June and I'm going to go on stressing this because election after election after election no matter how much you may analize it is there a country of a billion potential voters so you can't ever be 100% sure but we talking to the real experts to get a sense of what they are also picking up and who better to talk to now then yashan deshmuk founder of SE water somebody who's been tracking the numbers tracking the data analyzing the ENT entire election as a finger on the pulse like very few people um whom I know so yes let me just start by getting sort of the big picture from you and then just go state by state and try and look at the issues a the issues and what is probably happening state by state what's the big picture according to you because the big picture you and I have been speaking for like four or five months and you were always of the view that it'll roughly end up being what it was in 2019 I think is roughly what you've been saying what is your assessment today I think the big picture uh looking at the turnout numbers I believe that we overanalyzed and panicked of sort you know in different ways after the first wave first round of the election because the drop off approximately 4% votes that kind of sent us back to all our you know um Excel sheets and spreadsheets and everything you know looking at the Murphy's principle you know if anything can go wrong it will go wrong that way but when we when we look into you know turnout discrepancies in that way that is there any major Trend that is coming out from that drop in the turnout viam we realize that there is nothing much as to actually look into it uh uh in any Cas J you can't be very sure whether a drop in the turnout is it pro incumbency is it anti-incumbency is is the party which has the organizational strength the one which is going to benefit from it is it just the heat so it's never quite easy to predict it was probably just the ghost of 2004 that all the data people journalist media people like us you know uh you know always go back to the 2004 thing oh something can happen like that and that's why I went back to my my my drawing board because uh I tried to analyze the 2004 thing again all over again pulled out the data and I realized that in 2004 even though the BJP managed to win majority of the rural seat they actually lost their Urban strongholds due to huge drop in Metropolitan turnout of almost 18 points and that's where all the metropolitans all the major metros BJP lost big time and that was the big this thing big big differentiator but when I when I compared that to 2024 I realized number one there was no differentiator of urban and rural turnout drop it the drop was like more secular across that there was no differentiator as such between male and female drop there was no differentiator between uh you know seats reserved for dalits or the seat seats reserved for tribals and the general seats uh you know so there was no differentiators number one number two there was no north south narrative or differentiator because South also saw the drop in turnout you know number three there was no not BJP versus non-bjp differentiator because say drop in Kerala where BJP is absent 7% so it's left India Alliance versus India Alliance kind of thing then I realized by the I waited for the second wave round to be completed and and then I realized that probably we are looking at a trend of drop in turnout in the states where there is a perceived lopsided contest perceived contest of their results going one way in this way or that way so K go out in the heat if it's a foregone conclusion is a sort of it's a more or less a foregone conclusion and you know that's why the drop in turnout in those States be it anti-bjp be it pro BJP doesn't matter but the states where where the perceived contest is very good where there's a deadlock fight where people are really excited about let's see you know then the both camps are pushing their people to come out and it's there is there is a definite more excit M as about the discussion over there who is winning their state and uh and that is why we realize that see for example the turnout in in uh in Bengal went up in Andra went up in in Telangana went up you know in in all these states the turnout went up where there is a perceived good contest on cards so you're saying you're saying and let's just take this as one takeaway that I'm putting together from you the turnout issue is not likely to have a major bearing in this election one way or the other so we're back to square one when it comes to the turnout issue there's no real absolutely we overanalyzed we we probably overanalyzed that entire first phase and also the fact that after that we have seen 4% 3% 2% 1% and now over superseding the previous turnout so basically that drop in turnout is also going down that could also hang on hang on by your own logic that could potentially include add lead to the fact that people are not thinking there's a fight so why waste your time there's no fight it's a for conclusion now they thinking it's a fight so therefore the turnup is going up by the everybody's putting their more more more more effort you know to pull out the voters and like that yeah okay so if it's that turnout asight one thing which I think many experts have been discussing and you and I have also unofficially been discussing this one thing which is a surprise is that if in January and February it was looking like a referendum election ction on Prime Minister Modi and 10 years of government it was a referendum on that particular factor that does seems to have given way to an election where it is more a ag glomeration of State elections where state issues local issues local leadership that's playing a larger role that's at least what many of the analysts have been putting forward what's your view on that I think that is that analysis is being derived from the fact that opposition is trying really hard to now to make it localized because they they are realizing see that was always the opposition's only hope was to make it localized if you have a referend verus to get clubber the only chance that the opposition had was to make it a localized election exactly so so they have been kind of partially successful say for example uh some seats in Rajasthan couple of seats in madhya Pradesh which are now seen which are now seen as more competitive and opened up in that way you know during the runup to the election and funly and oddly enough the turnout hypothesis stands true there because in all those seeds even within the even when the overall State turnout dropped in these competitive seeds the turnout went up so that's that's another empirical evidence of my turnout theory of competitiveness you know which is which is working in that direction so yeah only answer become so the reason I'm asking that question is that if it does become therefore a battle on you know local issues that's where the opposition always felt that they would have a chance right does that mean that then without that overall you know we have to make Prime Minister Modi the Prime Minister you know Modi has to become the Prime Minister which happened in 2014 2019 in the absence of that then do issues like unemployment issues like inflation issues like my local candidate is a bad candidate and therefore I'm going to vote against it to those things become more prominent and is that something which would please the opposition and worry the BJP to some extent it's it's happening but again it's not happening across the board you know it would have been Troublesome for the BJP if that would have been happening across the board for example just look at Rajasthan I'm taking up Rajasthan because the elections are over or even take a case of mad prades and these are the states which I have been maintained that in order to topple the BJP if the opposition needs to topple the BJP then the real contest is those 200 seats where it is Congress versus the BJP unless Congress shows the sign of Revival rest of all other opposition leaders are doing their best they did their best in 14 and 19 as well but BJP is not going anywhere if there is no sign of Congress Revival in the 200 OD seats where it is Congress versus the BJP so I'm picking up the states for example Rajasthan madh Pradesh chattis gar or Gujarat or Karnataka and so on and so forth you know uh but different stories in each of those so let's look at those states that you mentioned different stories seem to be playing out in different states in Gujarat or madhia Pradesh know obviously the BJP is very dominant um but in some of the states the Congress at least seems to believe that they are in for the with a better fight like take Karnataka which you mentioned where there's a expectation that the BJP will drop take harana where there's an expectation the BJP may drop um you know chhattis Gad and jarand is not very clear so BJP holding on in some states like madhia Pradesh and Gujarat utarak potentially dropping some in harana and Karnataka would that be a fair summary there there is a potential drop when I say potential because of the internal issues or ticket distribution issues on behalf of the BJP you know Karnataka is a different ball game because of the third angle of JDS coming into the play yes praj raan's issues was done only after the first phase was over so waliga seats had already gone through before that happened and obviously there was another politics at play over there but when you look into the core fight of Congress versus the BJP there are seats which are being counted by by both the camps that okay y you know now when you look into that and start counting those seats it's like few seats in Rajasthan few in couple of them in madha Pradesh uh maybe even few seats in they say in Gujarat for example when you when you talk to the journalist and and and look into the turnout but again Vikram those uh numbers are likely to be more of an aberration because it's not that anybody is saying nobody is say nobody is saying that those kind of numbers are they saying that seat are there is a good contest from the opp now when there is a good contest then in the probabilistic way the contesting seats go 50/50 it's it's that way because generally if there is a wave then those contesting seeds go in that direction you know uh so so far uh Suppose there would have been an overwhelming uh turnout then again from the same logic that it may or it may not be Pro or anti-incumbency but uh it unsettles you and opens up a discussion oh overwhelming High turnout in Karnataka does that mean it could be also an incumbent in nature you know of that sort or overwhelming turnout in Rajasthan does that mean that BJP is in trouble so those speculations would have opened up but largely speaking going through the reports talking to the journalist looking into the turnout figures and everything one thing is clear that there are seats where there is good contest even in the seats in states which were going one way but those number of seats are not very alarmingly high that they could be seen a generic Trend that across that belt of 200 odd seats you know oh now this has opened up and now we are looking at a reverse signal and Congress is Reviving and BJP is on the downhill that generic Revival still is not coming up in the okay so Congress versus BJP those states where it is a bilateral fight between the 10 Advantage BJP is is what you're very clearly seeing let's now turn our attention to another category of states where the Allies come in and where it is actually quite frankly a ky right no one has any idea Maharashtra com to nobodys Maharashtra I would add to that list right so those are the two states where the entire Alliance Dynamic becomes very strong and at least some analysts would say that there the question is maybe the Allies are going to be rather weak the question is whether the BJP itself will drop seats or not and then how many seats were given to the Allies becomes a factor Maharashtra they didn't give too many they I mean the BJP increased its own fight to 8 seats bhar is still fighting only 17 so your sense of those two states where like you're right I mean what very interesting both of these states you know you add in West Bengal in that way because I said that West Bengal is hyperco competitive so the turnout is extremely healthy invest Bal uh Maharashtra is a basket case in this election because the turnout has dropped tremendously and largely because every voter in Maharashtra is feeling cheated by the Mand that was insulted by all the parties you know so Maharashtra is a basket case it's a it's a headache for all the analyst journalist pollsters alike it is going to be very difficult let me be uh be very honest with you because when you have this kind of a drop of the turnout viam we are scrapping at the bottom of the Barrel in that case because we are now looking at the corest of the core voters you know which would be like every party is now looking to pull out that support base so when we see the results on Fourth uh I am expecting probably two TR kind of Trends uh one Trend which I have been saying right from the preo surveys is that we are looking at trends that uh where the alliance partners are on the weaker Wicket the BJP tickets are doing better but Alliance Partners might not be doing that better that is one thing which we have to keep an eye on Fourth uh on the counting before June uh another one which we need to look into Maharashtra is that kind of vot share because that is going to form the new base for Maharashtra you know in that they the elections later this year and exactly because that is the SAA which is the real Sena which is the real NCP not point of that give us a new Baseline for the election six months down the lane now what is surprising for me Bihar biar was supposed to be and is likely to be a very very good Battlefield you know thing in our preo tracker we were saying that BJP uh areas are showing much more enthusiasm same enthusiasm is not too much at display as such where the jdu ticket is there what is surprising to me in Bihar is the droing the turnout of that sort because ideally like Bengal the bear turnout should have been very healthy looking at the Maharashtra is a basket case let's put that aside I was expecting a very good turnout in Bear now the lack of turnout or or drop in turnout in biar uh going by my hypothesis either it is a kind of a one-way traffic for one of the two uh you know alliances either position or this one uh or a deviation of sort where we might look into a a very close contest but bear contesting in two different regions you know where one is a pro BJP region one is the anti- alliance partner region and in those two places those two behaving like two different universes and the turnout has dropped for essentially the same reason you know uh you are either winning big time or you are losing in big time so at the state level either it is going to come out as a very head-on contest even with a drop in turnout but uh going by my Essential hypothesis if I have to look into bear I am now wondering whether it is going one way this way or one way that way at the entire state level is that a possibility all right we'll have to see what happens out here but put together in all the states that we mentioned So Far West Bengal you want to quickly say something about is it going to be rough contest West Bengal is an amazing amazing contest and and touchwood by and large Vikram for the first time we have not no violence has been reported from Bengal uh thanks I mean I I would like to congratulate to Election Commission purely for that thing if not anything else you know six phases seven phases but maybe 10 phases I wouldn't mind as long as there is no violence on the ground so that is a very very important thing and that lack of violence lat of threat has increased the turnout I mean or maintained or at least ensured a good healthier turnout in West Bengal so you are likely to see uh two pointers over there one very good contest number two uh keep an eye on fourth of uh June on Bengal on on a very interesting aspect you might see BJP entering the urban areas madok but you also might see uh Trin CL bling the rural Bengal because Bengal has been coming back in Jungle the BJP some of yeah some some of that kind because of the local incumbencies you know the the MPS sitting MPS are not very popular on both the camps they are not very popular so those kind of aberration will happen uh you know flipping in that side uh also uh one interesting thing to keep an eye on is the votes pulled by the trinu and uh sorry by Congress and the left front Alliance because they are just ask you that question if let's say the kurmi front which has just been formed in Jungle mahel or if the CPM regains some of their old base does that hit the BJP especially in Jungle May yes yes of course yes that's the that's the original plank of mam benerji was that she didn't want an alliance with Congress and left for a simple reason that in the last Assembly Election we had seen the complete saturation polarization of minority votes for mam uh and we had seen a complete polarization of that sort now whatever the residual vote Bank of left and the Congress has uh they have in West Bengal it is essentially anti- Mamta vote it's no more anti-bjp vote so Mamta was very keen and very clear on that that if we have an alliance then those about 10% vote Bank vote will be re aligned toward the BJP there is a possibility of BJP growing on the votes now that that anti vote could be split between ex CP so that is a very important aspect because then that will form the Baseline for the next Assembly Election because what has worked for Mamta right now might Boomerang for her in the next phase of Assembly Election because uh one thing which is very clear that voters generally do not like to waste votes you know if if uh left and left and Congress don't win number of seats and just pull up the vot share uh resulting in uh you know MTA winning more seats then anti- Mamta votes which are going to them at the Assembly Election might like to reboot that okay they are not winning the winnability factor is low so let's realign so maharash and Bengal from that perspective I are going to give a quite interesting baselines for the for the future politics of these two states all right let's now come to the big one right which is utar Pradesh right and before I'm going to come to come go back to the South I'm going to go back to Andra and Telangana and orisa for a very particular reason but let's take a look at utar Pradesh because before the election had started a lot of people felt the BJP was going to go up in up and perhaps very sharply up in ut they were talking about 75 some are saying 70 you know that sort of a number was being spoken about on the ground it's looking if it's a somewhat tougher battle partly because that Ram Mand wave and that Modi wave that many people were expecting that it would be an election which would be a referendum on the ram Mand and a referendum on Modi if that's not happening then again local issues come up you know seat by seat constituency by constituency which way will the dalit vote go what is exactly happening with the women vote whose schemes are better and those factors come in a bit I think we are looking at an interesting battle in uttar Pradesh now only because of the disaster of ticket Distribution on the bjp's front utar Pradesh happens to be the only state where BJP has repeated big number of non-performing MPS by rest of the India they have chopped down the tickets of big number of non-performing MPS but utar Pradesh for some strange reasons they have carried on you know continued with the same old faces and that opened up an opportunity for the opposition to to to put up a fight over there uh significantly the samajwadi party I would say not in terms of the Congress much in that way uh samajwadi party has interestingly uh done a very smart move number one uh they have gone beyond their Muslim yadov fold and consciously uh given very less number of tickets to Muslims and yadov like they used to give earlier number one number two they have given a significantly bigger number number of tickets to non yadav obcs a ploy which BJP used to play in 14 and 19 SP has picked it up then on the reserved seats they have significantly given big number of nonat dalit faces which again has is the same Ploy that BJP had picked up in 14 and 19 so and all of that essentially meaning all of that essentially meaning that from the co Muslim other stronghold of theirs there's a chance that they're going to hope that delit voters for example who were earlier bjan samage party supporters now the b in the areas that are now to P right puran and the areas that are now coming up to PO lot of those areas were won by the B by the bjan smaj party last time the areas around so there is a theory that I've been hearing from some analysts that some of those delit voters and some of the bsp support could in fact move to the samajwadi party because of sh yadav candidate there and because you know of that so therefore there'll be less reluctance to go and vote is that you think a possibility and there very very significant that's that's a very distinct possibility and to to double up the the the add in coun in the factor that BJP has ear big time on the ticket selections you know uh some of their some of their candidates just baffle the mind they just defy the and and baffle because the because BJP is not known to do that kind of stupidities and the result is that prime minister has to kind of doubly invest has doubled down on the western eastern up now in the purwanchal number of rallies you look into that he's like carpet bombing the rallies over there in the in purwanchal so that extra effort from the prime minister is only to negate the stupidities that they have done the blunders they have done in the ticket distribution very unlike BJP and then to capit all Vikram uh there is I mean I was in Banaras talking to many people out on the ground and there is a clear was about some internal issues you know of Yogi adi's own understanding whether he because uh like for example there were so many reports from certain areas even cases like you know Raja kunda was has kind of used his own St strong arm tactics in certain areas you know uh and that those kind of things cannot be allowed cannot happen on the ground unless there is uh um some kind of a softer knot from the top you know those who are in L now so if and these things do matter on the polling day it particular this is Yogi territory now these rumors are exactly exactly exactly I mean you're hearing Arin krial coming in there trying to do Nam krial just tried to you know SEO his own routine that heat that's fine that was that is only thing is that that simmering Yogi anti Yogi thing which was on the under the cover or under the wraps is kind of coming started to come out you know so that leaves me with a very very interesting question in mind there are only two things either uh either the BJP is going to win really big number in in up or they are going to not big win that big as they expectation so if they do not win as per big as per their expectation then obviously the charges are going to fly they would be charges which would be traded there would be things which would be you know postmart hog then if they at all win big number of seats just by virtue of there are so much so many reports now from the ground about the takur is not voting the takur rajput lobbying about you know different kind of pro and anti Modi equations that time starting to worry that probably the the tussle might come out more in open in that way uh so that is a that's one thing which uh which is uh very interesting to keep in mind uh I'm I'm I'm following now up from that perspective that how how to read the trends how to look into that future of up so if you put all of this together right I mean so far a lot of the states that we've been talking about there's a possibility that because you see is maxed out in many of these places they can't get more in they were more or less maxed out in places like Rajasthan and Karnataka and you know biar and Maharashtra as as a as a Alliance so the possibility of a drop in all of these places exists now to counterbalance that we have to come to then three states in particular according to me you might have another state also in mind those three states would be urisa telingana possibly Andhra Pradesh because of not because of the BJP itself but because of the telu desam where they would hope to pick up some seeds to counterbalance or to minimize the losses that happened elsewhere do you think those are the where the BJP gains I think I think that's a distinct possibility uh that was pretty much in The Trackers as well I mean uh when we were gaining uh to what extent if at all they gain that remains to be seen from the exit pole data uh but one interesting point that we should keep in mind anybody who is doing a can BJP reach that can that figure is that even in the states where they are kind of uncomfortable uh even in those States Vikram we have to keep in mind the very distinctness of uh performance of the candidates on BJP ticket and Alliance Partners ticket you know the alliance num the India numbers could be falling to the alliance partners are falling place like bead may not fall that much so so so say in biar or Maharashtra keep an eye on how many exactly of the bjp's own perform candidates are doing so uh the the the last tracker that we reported before the election process started we were looking at a very distinct trend of uh of of two different Bion factors you know uh for in Maharashtra and Bihar both on the BJP ticket and on the alliance Partners ticket so if things go the way they were expected to go online uh please keep in mind that on 4th of June uh we should keep an eye on the trends coming from the seats and the pockets where people are contesting on BJP ticket and those who are contesting on Alliance Partners ticket okay you're saying some potential gains so you don't believe just to come back to that point you think will be gains potentially in there could be potential gains there is definitely there is a potential gain possible out there because uh that's what the trend line was showing up you know now say for example the last trend line of Andhra Pradesh was clearly going in the anti-incumbency direction uh you know against jagan M RI and Andra is not known to give a split verdict of Lok SAA different and assembly different so far Bayan La they have always gone to the elections together and unlike orisa Andra has been giving the Mandate in the the same direction orisa has been giving a split verdict and I will not be surprised if orisa gives a extremely uh you know diverse split verdict in the Lo SAA and assembly so I will not be surprised that has happened in 19 that has happened in 140 that has already happened in orisa karake let's now come to the big picture after all of this analysis and by this is what is actually happening and it is a far more interesting election than it was because there lots of sub themes different themes and every status we've just been discussing for the last half an hour has got a pretty much a different story and all of that will have to be added up when you add all of this up up in some down in some this thing that thing what is it finally adding up to it's adding up to the where we started back to square one you know our last poll on the India today motn and the ABP uh you know some ups and some downs but it looks like this is pretty much going in the uh in the expected line I don't have anything to raise the red flag or alarming right now yes few states have their own red flags like I said that Maharashtra has become kind of absolutely unpredictable of sort because of this huge drop in turnout uh but something others have worked you know in uh in that way so U uh so I think I don't have any phase by phase kind of a red flag because when I go went back to my drawing board vickram uh as I mentioned earlier I don't see any differentiat any any differentiative relative turnout loophole anywhere that can that can that ask me to raise a red flag mam this is something not as per expectation and so so far whatever is happening is kind of happening pretty much on the expected l no expected times means so you're saying when all the additions and subtractions are done as of this moment is looking as if you're back to what happened in 200 19 or 20 I sort of I cannot go go into numbers right now and that would be wrong because I'm preview to exit pole data I look only looking at the turnout numbers to come to this thing and only saying is there anything which in my last assessment before the election started and something which is going weird and I would be kind of taken a back that okay this is something beyond my thing so far I don't think that uh turnouts have uh come up with something which would alarm me to that level all right so that's a really interesting take what do you make of all the debates that are happening now which were not happening at the start of the entire campaign where people are saying everything from BJP cotino to BJP is struggling to get the majority Mark to people saying BJP 250 to some people saying the India Alliance is coming well to give give give give some credit to that effort Vikram see the election prime minister has set the tone in a very good psychological iCal Warfare for big long time nobody even talked about the possibility of 300 everybody was discussing Char you know so uh imagine from a polition perspective that in that kind of narrative where that there's give up oh I don't know what to talk about at least due to the certain pockets of the localizing localization of election certain pockets of interesting elections at least now they are back into that kind of narrative saying that contest or you know there is something which even forces even you know for people to sit and take notice of that because I mean yeah fact that we doing these discussions I remember talking to you in January and you saying why are we even going to do anything around the elections it's going to be the most boring elections it's turned out to there you see yeah everybody a boring election where it finally ends up as I was saying 12: noon roughly on the 4th of June is the time really to be having that conversation perhaps not even on the day of the exit pole so yesan thank you so much for talking to us we will be talking to you on the 4th of June in the evening at some point absolutely of how it all banned out thank you so much for joining us thank you thank you so much thank you [Music]

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Published: Wed May 22 2024