Is the Russian army too understaffed to fight? | Ben Hodges

I think that they were forced to start this latest offensive soon before they were ready in part I believe to to have something to show for Monday uh tomorrow for the Victory Day and so this the new offensive um was being started before the units have been rebuilt before they could actually get everything in place and and that's why we're seeing such minimal of progress and it's uh just a almost a World War one style of trying to inch forward with a Relentless artillery now tomorrow Russia will celebrate Victory Day foreign [Music] holiday commemorates the anniversary of the defeat of the Nazis in World War II symbolically it's one of the most important dates in the Russian calendar and this year it will be set against the backdrop of the country's invasion of Ukraine Ben Hodges is a retired U.S army General and former commander of U.S army forces in Europe he joins us now from Talent Estonia good morning to you hey good morning guys so uh with regard to Victory Day tomorrow what should the rest of the world expect from it do you think that Vladimir Putin is going to make an announcement well certainly um I'm anxious to hear what he has to say and what comes out of this uh without a doubt he's going to use this as an opportunity to help remind or convince his own domestic population that this is about a continuation of what they did 70 years ago fighting against Nazis and fascism so the failed activity the failed Invasion that they're conducting now he's going to try and connect this to that as a continuation of the struggle in order to give it some sort of legitimacy that'll be a stretch but that I think that's his main effort tomorrow I don't anticipate a major announcement we're not seeing the indicators only speculation so I think it's going to be more about this is why it's important for Russia at least from his perspective uh you call his invasion a failed project many people would agree with you but tomorrow is Victory Day and he is going to have to be talking about it in the context of uh Victory um is it how hard is it for Vladimir Putin to spin this as a as a successful War even to a population who have no Independent Media yeah it's going to be quite a stretch um the I would anticipate that what they'll do the victories that they'll claim will be um something along the lines of Don yes and Luke heinsk and even a large part of her son obelis have been liberated from the Nazis um and that you'll try and quantify it somehow and and uh but he'll also anticipate he'll spin it that now it's Russia against NATO it's Russia against the United States and they'll try to broaden the the context uh he would have to to justify why they have not been successful and why they're uh estimates of over well over 15 000 Russian soldiers that have been killed in the flagships been sunk in the Black Sea and on and on and on so um I I think this this will be tough but we have to keep in mind that huge percentages of the Russian population absolutely believe this including uh where I live in Frankfurt many Russians who live in Europe uh in Western Europe that have access to all media they also lap this up there have been suggestions that Putin is going to reconceptualize what was once a special military operation and and call it a full-blown war that that will have implications for for military strategy what do you think is is the likelihood of that well the way you frame that actually is is very well done to reconceptualize what they're doing the problem will be to declare it now it's full-scale War it's not just a special military operation or special technical operation um that a certain different Doctrine will apply laws will change about what they can do and the most uh likely step would have been to do a general mobilization because they have serious Manpower problems right now they're they're actually outnumbered by Ukrainian troops if you include all the territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine so they're having some Empire problems so the idea of a general mobilization the problem is that they're going to be humiliated because I believe an awful lot of people will not actually show up who were mobilized and the corruption inside the ministry of defense is going to be further exposed because they don't have good equipment to be able to provide to these reservists who do show up and I spoke with a senior finish officer recently and Finland is about the best in the world when it comes to Rapid mobilization for obvious reasons and he was very skeptical that they would even do it because they would be humiliated at their system is not tested so he may talk about a a broader War but he doesn't have anything that he can add to what they're already doing in terms of mobilizing his his soldiers uh and them having the will to fight this will be difficult will it not after the death of so many generals and a campaign that's taking so much longer than was promised yeah the uh there's two or three aspects to this of course in their command system uh it's a very top-down centralized decision-making process and so that's part of the reason you've had so many General officers uh being killed because they had to move forward to solve problems that in the British army or the US Army would have been taken care of by captains or Colonels interestingly uh and unfortunately for the Russians usually when these generals are killed when their command post is shattered so are 25 or 30 other Colonels and Lieutenant Colonels and Majors that are doing the work so it's not just the general himself who is a is taken out uh the other thing that um is really a problem for them I think that they were forced to start this latest offensive soon before they were ready uh in part I believe um to to have something to show for Monday uh tomorrow for the Victory Day and so this the new offensive um was being started before the units have been rebuilt before they could actually get everything in place and and that's why we're seeing such minimal of progress and it's uh just a almost a World War one style of trying to inch forward with a Relentless artillery and frankly it's it's not very effective the third thing though that they cannot solve even within a year they just don't have sergeants non-commissioned officers I mean this is the secret sauce for Western armies U.S army British Army the German army non-commissioned officers that make soldiers do the right things that make sure vehicles are cared for that what we call field craft they don't have that and so they'll never be able to fix that and finally Ben Hodges I couldn't let you go without asking you about your assessment of Vladimir Putin's health because he's going to be making a public appearance tomorrow recent public appearances have been very strange there was the the conversation with his defense minister where he was gripping the table for several uh minutes throughout the entire uh conversation what do you think do you think that he's well well he's he certainly doesn't give off the uh the image of a person who is robust and uh up to the strain of leading a country at War um it obviously I'm not a doctor but you know I'm from Florida originally and uh Fidel Castro outlived about five American presidents and we all were sure that Kester was going to die one day and we were wrong so um I don't I can't make policy recommendations um based on what how healthy the president of the Russian Federation loves Ben Hodges retired U.S army General and former commander of U.S army forces in Europe thank you so much thanks for the privilege [Music]

Channel: Times Radio

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Id: -8ddlYLUwu0

Length: 8min 29sec (509 seconds)

Published: Sun May 08 2022