There's a great quotation in Hemingway's
novel, The Sun Also Rises, where two fellows are talking
to each other about going bankrupt. And one guy asks the other, <i>How</i>
<i>did you go bankrupt?</i> And the man responds,
<i>Slowly, and then suddenly</i>. That's what happened
in the collapse of the Soviet Union. And I think that's what's going to happen in the collapse
of the Russian Federation. We'll see. I hope we're prepared. Welcome back, everybody. The situation in Ukraine is fluid
and changing. Today, I'd like to talk to you
about what's happening and give you my assessment
of what comes next. What's interesting to me is that we know
more about what the Russians are doing than what the Ukrainians are doing. This is a good thing. The Ukrainians have done a superb job of
what we call OPSEC - operational security. The Ukrainian counter offensive
focused initially in the Kherson Region. This is very important
because, psychologically and politically, Kherson is the first and only capital of an “oblast” - a province -
that was captured by the Russians. So there's an important strategic
and psychological reason for liberating Kherson. There's an operational advantage
to it as well. There are thousands of Russian troops
that are on the right bank of the Dnipro. The Dnipro River, of course, is Ukraine's most important river,
and it flows into the Black Sea. And the bridges that connect that side
back to this side of the river have been under attack
nonstop the last several weeks so that the Russians cannot bring in food,
ammunition, water. And the Russians are going to have
a real hard time evacuating heavy equipment out of there,
as well as many of the troops. Kherson, of course, is also important
because once this area is relieved, then we start getting a lot closer
to Crimea. Right now, it's about 240 kilometers
straight line from Kherson to Sevastopol. But once you get here
and you start bringing HIMARS forward - longer range weapons systems - now
they start having the ability to directly attack various bases inside Crimea and potentially Sevastopol and other Russian bases in Crimea
become unusable. However, I'm not so sure
that Kherson is the main effort because there was so much talk
about a counter offensive happening here by Ukrainian forces. This big counteroffensive in the south. Meanwhile, we have seen a
significant increase in Ukrainian operations around Kharkiv. So, in fact,
it could be that this was done intentionally to draw Russian forces here and that the main attack
was always going to be up here. Either way, the fact
that they have marshaled enough forces and protected the information
about what's going on so well, that's a different level
of operational art. The Russians have realized
that they cannot protect their rear. And now we see even more cases
of partisans, or perhaps it's Ukrainian special forces, being very active
in the rear area of the Russian occupied zone,
which causes additional confusion. And of course, with each ammunition
storage point that's destroyed, the Russians have to move ammo further to the rear,
which then puts an additional strain on their dwindling number of trucks,
which is why we're seeing a reduction in the artillery effects
of the Russian army. Another thing that has struck me
as very interesting, it's a reflection of the corruption
inside the Russian military. It's a sign of a lack of discipline, will. And it's a sign
that they don't have sergeants. Every video I see of a Russian position
that has been overrun or destroyed or captured or vehicles
that have been destroyed - everywhere you see trash, you see personal kit
lying around, ammunition lying around. In other words, they don't look like
they're ready to fight. Real professional soldiers,
when they're in the combat zone, have their stuff packed, put away,
ready to go - so that if they had to move quickly forward or backwards,
they not leaving everything around them. This is a reflection of an army
that is not prepared to fight, doesn't want to fight,
doesn't have the necessary leadership, doesn't have the culture
for successful combat operations. Now, I would have never thought this
before the war started that we would be talking about
manpower problems in the Russian military. I mean, Russia has more than three times
the population of Ukraine, yet Ukraine does not have a manpower
problem. In fact, they've got more than 700,000
troops in uniform. They've got plenty of women and men who
are military age, fit, who want to fight. Their system for getting them into
the fight is improving with each week. On the other hand, Russia is having
to look everywhere to find new troops. In a very interesting statement
just a couple of weeks ago, President Putin said he wanted to grow
the Russian military by another 137,000 troops
in 2023. First of all, that's never
going to happen. There are not another 137,000
Russians that want to come join the army to join this fight. All the numbers that I see coming
out of the Kremlin turn out to be false. They can't even fill the formations
that they have now. But it is perhaps revealing
that he would acknowledge that they've got to grow
the size of the army. It's always been interesting to me
that they have decided not to do a mass mobilization, where you could harness
all the manpower that's there. They're not doing this because,
number one, they would have to admit that what's happening
is a total disaster right now so far. And also, I think they would be humiliated Where's the Russian navy? Before February, the Black Sea fleet
controlled basically the entire Black Sea. It was unchallenged. They had cruise missiles,
“Kalibr” missiles. But over the past
six months, we've watched the realization that the Russian navy
is no better than the Russian army. The sinking of the Moskva,
the flagship of course, that's what got everybody's attention. But since that time and the loss
of a few other Russian vessels, the Russian navy, the Black Sea Fleet
is hiding behind Crimea. They are terrified to go anywhere near
the Ukrainian coastline. And Ukraine does not even have a navy. So this is an asymmetric response
by the Ukrainians using Neptune, Harpoon,
and other capabilities in combination with drones
to keep the Russian navy away from Ukrainian coastline. The great Black Sea Fleet,
other than their submarines, I think is a total waste. It hasn't been in the fight. And as Ukrainian forces
get closer and closer to Crimea, soon they're going to be able to start
launching HIMARS rockets and other rockets into Sevastopol, making it untenable
for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. There's a lot of talk about sanctions. The impact of sanctions
is starting to be felt in this conflict. We know that the Russians
cannot replace the precision weapons because they can't get the components
that they need. They're using old technology
to try and replenish some of their precision weapons. We also know that the Kremlin is now looking
to North Korea to buy artillery ammunition. The so-called second
best army in the world is turning to North Korea
for artillery ammunition. That didn't speak too well for the Russian
defense industry or their logistics. But sanctions are also having an impact
domestically. As we talked about last time,
Aeroflot is having to cannibalize some of its airplanes
just to keep others in service. Most Russians, I mean,
this is how they travel around Russia. It's either by train or on Aeroflot. And I think that the combination
of the impact of sanctions on the Russian population and the impact
of battlefield losses over the next two or three months is really going to start
to raise the temperature on the Kremlin. They can't spin it away. They can’t conceal it anymore. I think this is going to be something
for us to watch aswell. The will between the Kremlin and Western capitals - Washington, London, Berlin, Paris, Rome,
all the capitals of Western Europe. If we can stick together,
keep the sanctions in place, and continue to deliver everything
that we said we would deliver to Ukraine, Ukrainian victory
is inevitable. But this is not easy. Winter is coming. There is so much concern about gas prices,
energy prices. Back in the United States,
people talk about the cost of energy. It's the same in the U.K.,
it's the same across Europe. People are very concerned about
energy costs as it begins to get colder. All of us are prepared
to put on an extra sweater. But that's not the biggest threat. The biggest challenge
is going to be impact on industry. Our leaders have got to talk
to our populations and explain why we're doing this, why this matters,
and what we're doing to mitigate the challenges
associated with Russia cutting off gas. With what the Kremlin has done,
they played their gas card too early. Germany and others had time to start
looking for other sources, other methods
to find ways to make up the deficit. This is not going to be easy. It's going to be very tough. People's jobs, economies will be affected. But this is about more than jobs. It's about stopping the Russians
from threatening not only Ukraine, but other European countries. Thousands of Ukrainians
have been murdered by Russian forces. Every day, hundreds of Ukrainian
soldiers are killed or wounded, fighting to defend their country. A young, struggling democracy
against an autocracy. That's what this is about. And you can be sure China's watching this. The Chinese are watching to see if we can maintain our cohesion,
if we can maintain our support of Ukraine. If we're willing to do whatever it takes
economically as well as militarily to make sure that Ukraine wins,
I think the Chinese will be impressed. But if they see that we collapse
in the face of economic pressure, then I don't think the Chinese will be too impressed
by anything we say about Taiwan. And I remain very optimistic about how
this is going to play out in Ukraine, that Ukrainian victory is inevitable,
but it's not easy, it's not cheap. And there's a lot of hard fighting
still to go. A lot of sacrifice
by the people of Ukraine. I look forward
to talking to you next time.
