Global deaths under-reported

right warm welcome to today's update it's wednesday evening still the 3rd of november now we want to look particularly this evening first of all at deaths how many deaths there's been as a result of this pandemic now in the 1918-19 pandemic the influenza pandemic there was probably between 50 and 80 million people died from that no one's actually quite sure so in this modern pandemic you'd think would be uh quite sure and fairly accurate about the figures but there's quite a lot of uncertainty as we'll see but the deaths are much lower than they were in 1918 1990 which of course was before the antibiotic era so but actually if you think about this pandemic we're actually 19 months into this now so we're into this quite a long time and john hopkins official data um over five million people have died now according to the johns hopkins which is basically a collation of all the officially government-released data from around the world so basically governments are saying well collectively there's been five million deaths as a result of sales coronavirus ii infection with covered 19. total cases are 247 million according to official data and over 7 billion doses of vaccine given according to official data now i want to focus as we've said more on the deaths particularly now we'll start off with the world health organization estimates on debt and then we're going to look at some potentially more accurate estimates after that starting with the world health organization check on the site it's all there now this is based on excess mortality estimates produced for 20 20. so this is 2020 data and we can we'll see we better extrapolate this up to modern times um now world health organizations say this we're likely facing a significant undercount of total deaths directly and indirectly attributable to covered 19 of course this is this is fairly self-evident statement so the actual people that have died from covered 19 have been under-reported globally and how many knock-on deaths the sort of collateral damage if you like from covid19 patients who haven't been otherwise treated or patients who've died from other intercurrent infections as a result of lockdown difficulties with lockdown economic difficulties with lockdowns and the various policies that have been instigated around the world that these these have also caused deaths and uh one way to look at this is is the total excess mortality in a population that's what the world health and organizations doing here now they do make the proviso that many countries still lack functional civil registrations and vital statistics systems so we don't have data for the whole world accurately and they give an example of this which is useful before we just get down to the the specifics so in terms of registered deaths compared to the actual number of deaths in europe it's at least 98 of deaths are correctly registered in the african region ninety percent of people die unrecorded only ten percent of deaths are recorded so interestingly for the deaths in africa ninety percent of people are simply never written down ninety percent of deaths and uh that just be lost to history one would assume so uh great variance in the uh the official reporting around the world of deaths making comparison very difficult and comparisons are also difficult because countries simply record things in different ways even sophisticated countries even say germany the uk australia and the united states all record deaths in a slightly different way so it can be a bit confusing now excess mortality is what is going to be looked at in the world health organization data here and this is the difference in the total number of deaths in a crisis which we've been in the pandemic compared to those expected under normal circumstances so how many people overall die so essentially this is ignoring how many people are dying from the pandemic it's looking at how many deaths there have been overall compared to what you would expect and of course if we're looking overall deaths that should take into account the deaths from the pandemic directly and the deaths from the knock on sort of collateral damage deaths from the pandemic as well so that therefore includes direct and uh indirect impacts now the who 2020 now this is for 2020. so at the end of 2020 there was 1.8 1813 100 official deaths but the lower bound on that the lower bound is the uh world health organization important that is is three million deaths so we can see there was significant under reporting so here we see this graphic from the wh so 1.8 million officially reported deaths actual number of deaths 3 million or potentially quite a bit more so at least 3 million excess mortality this is excess deaths over what we would normally expect so that's the estimate from the world health organization particularly in the americas mortality estimated range from 1.34 to 1.46 million which is about 60 percent more than reported so in the americas they're saying under reported by 60 60 more deaths and than actually reported european region um excess mortality estimates range from for the total deaths 1.11 million to 1.21 million about 50 percent more deaths than reported so it's even for the european region where you would expect data to be well collected so afra so um america's sixth under reported of course this is for the whole americas it's hard to generalize europe 50 under reported so that was the estimates there from the world health organization now the next one i want to go on to is the economist now the economist magazine has collected pretty good data all the way through this actually um and they've got quite useful ways of thinking about deaths particularly they're considering excess deaths as well like the world health organization is and they take into account about 100 parameters to to calculate excess deaths so this is their calculation now um actual worldwide death toll they estimate to be not 5 million but 16.8 million excess deaths so basically three times three times the official more than three times the official reported figure for the economists uh calculation of excess deaths and they say there's a 95 probability that there's between 10.3 million to 19.5 million deaths is what they are saying now their actual closest estimate um so is probably six that was we've got 17 million there but 16.8 million is actually what they are estimating so even the the lower range there that the 10.3 million up to the 19.5 19.6 million um we see the degree of under-reporting if it's 10.5 it would be 2.1 if it's 17 it would be 3.4 times and 3.9 times if it's the higher 19.6 excess mortality so that's the overall figure from the economist now the economist is particularly interesting because it actually as well as giving the overall figures of deaths it actually gives a specific countries and this is really some of this data is actually pretty mind-blowing and this is based on the economists models as we've said but they are quite sophisticated ones for collecting data from around the world so official official versus actual deaths from the economist so first of all the united states official deaths um now about 748 uh 740 800 000 so basically three quarters of a million deaths in the united states pretty high uh the official the actual number they estimate uh excess deaths are getting on for a million so 860 860 000 to 1 million from 745 000. so um deaths under reported in the united states according to the economist now china they're reporting 4 600 deaths the actual figure from the economist is not less than 150 000 and could be 1.7 million so they basically don't know there's this massive error bar so they're saying 150 000 deaths at least in china but up to 1.7 million so either way significantly more than the official reported figure in china of four thousand six hundred so deaths massively either way you look at it massively under reported in china likewise in india this is pretty sobering numbers here as well um so 400 nerve 458 000 in india official deaths the actual number is not less than 1.2 million and could be as high as 7.2 million deaths in india excess deaths so india's large population of course is getting on for about 1.4 billion now but again we see gross underestimates of the death figures in india are likely when we look at total mortality so basically one to seven million deaths in india quite incredible russia likewise greatly under-reported we've looked at this before deaths we know death sin russia a great launch reported the official figure 236 000 the actual number eight hundred and seventy thousand to nine hundred and ten thousand deaths so getting on for a million deaths in russia as well again we see under reported by what four four times probably massive under reporting indonesia um data often difficult to collect in indonesia official 140 3 000 real number 300 000 to 1.2 million in indonesia a large population country of course pakistan again particularly under reported um 28 477 officially reported the real number is 300 000 to over 900 000 deaths so massively under reporting in pakistan likewise in bangladesh official numbers 27 873 actual numbers 200 to 720 000. so again pretty sobering numbers from bangladesh uh turkey under reported 71 052 um officially reported the real number 130 000 to 420 thousand now we notice there's pretty big error bars on these because the data simply is not available but these are the best estimates made based on multiple data points that they've collected and some um some artificial intelligence extrapolations but based on as much data as they can get but you know if we take turkey for example they're pretty certain it's not less than 130 000. so it's getting on for at least double of the the official figures minimum but could be 420 000 so there are these error bars mexico under reported 288 000 reported the actual figure 560 to 600 000 brazil fairly accurate actually 408 000 deaths reported officially in brazil the actual numbers 660 to 740 000 and looking at the uk as we know where we do have accurate figures um the uk official deaths 28 days after a diagnosis 141 000 uk excess mortality is actually less and we know what it is it's not an estimate it's between 130 000 130 000 in other words it is accurate so some pretty sobering under reporting there in fact here's here's a graphic for the overall global under reporting so um these are the official deaths along the bottom here from the economist the red line is the line of most probable uh excess deaths the red error bar here is the 50 error a potential error and the gray is a 95 potential error so um pretty clear there and anywhere you look at it um even with the absolute lowest estimates totally lowest estimates um way higher than the official um the official figures so governments under reporting for whatever reasons um around the world quite uh quite a startling graphic there really from the economist just a few things to bear in mind death tolls are heavily influenced by the a structure of a country's population and we're going to be looking at africa hopefully tomorrow because it's got a young demographic because one of the reasons why the deaths there thankfully have been relatively low and we're going to give evidence for why that is probably true but that not on this video rely on the assumption that officially published excess mortality numbers are accurate which of course often they are not but somewhere like russia for example where the overall figures are completely unreliable we do know that people have collected data from all the regional areas in russia where deaths are still accurately recorded in the various regions where there's less central control and um you can add those all up of course and so we do have fairly accurate figures from russia in that regard covered 19 disruptions some governments may have changed how they compile the data people have been off people working from home all that kind of thing so that cast doubt on it and there is no doubt at all that some governments i'm not going to name that i've been looking at some but some governments have fiddled the numbers no question about that i'm not going to give you more information because i can't give hard evidence for that at the moment but there are if you look if you look on the economy site you'll see that some countries have fiddled it overtly because they've actually to change change the numbers retro retrospectively looking back and fiddled it to make them kind of adjust to be more consistent with their fiddling now last one i want to look at institute for health metrics and evaluation this is based university of washington of course there's the official site there huge amount of really quite impressive data on that now they looked at this differently they tried to estimate the actual number of deaths the total number of deaths not in excess mortality but the total deaths are estimated for the number of deaths attributable to covered 19 specifically including under reported deaths and their estimators at least double the official numbers so the official numbers just over 5 million their estimate 11.9 million directly attributable to covered 19. and here's their graphic that uh illustrates that so here we have the official numbers going along on the uh orange and then on the light green we have their estimated more accurate numbers and we see consistently governments have been under reporting for one reason or another so that's the officially reported that's the actual number of deaths quite interesting as well to look at their extrapolations into the next month or so um so here we are at the moment third of november um so the actual number of deaths they predict is going to carry on going up well of course it's going up because people can't come back to life this is a cumulative number so but the there are people still going to be dying even though at a greater rate because that line is going up more steeply than the official line there the red line is the higher estimate the green line is the lower estimate the purple line is the likely estimate so this problem is going to be going on uh until early next year and as i've said quite a few times in terms of western countries with high vaccination rates um australia new zealand canada united states uk europe i do expect the numbers to start going down fairly dramatically due to herd immunity effects early in the new year early in 2022 but let's just pause and remember that all of these official statistics represent individuals and i think we'll leave today's talk there and thank you for watching

Channel: Dr. John Campbell

Views: 200,452

Keywords: physiology, nursing, NCLEX, health, disease, biology, medicine, nurse education, medical education, pathophysiology, campbell, human biology, human body

Id: hdmb5NFiEW0

Length: 17min 33sec (1053 seconds)

Published: Wed Nov 03 2021