FRANCINE: -- GUY: LET ME TELL YOU WHAT'S COMING
UP ON TODAY'S PROGRAM. EUROPEAN STOCKS AND WALL STREET
FUTURES STUDY -- STEADY. U.S. JOBS DATA EXPECTED TO SHOW THE
U.S. LABOR MARKET IS SLOW. ECB OFFICIALS LET'S TURN BACK
TO THAT, CAUTIONING ON ANY RUSH FOR MORE CUTS.
THIS AFTER WE SAW YESTERDAY THE GOVERNING COUNCIL DELIVERING ON
ITS PRICE TO LOWER RATES. PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY SET TO
ADDRESS THE FRENCH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AFTER WE SAW EMMANUEL
MACRON PROMISE MORE MILITARY SUPPORT. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT'S
HAPPENING WITH THE EUROPEAN MARKET STORY. NOTHING IS HAPPENING WE ARE
WAITING 7:30 EASTERN. 2:30 CT. EUROPEAN EXIT MARKETS ARE DOING
THAT THIS MORNING. THAT'S THE NEXT BIG CATALYST
AFTER WE SAW THE ECB YESTERDAY. SORTING THROUGH THE DATA, U.S.
FUTURES DOING NOTHING. THE YIELD WILL BE IMPORTANT
TODAY, THAT'S WHERE WE SEE THE BIGGEST PRICE ACTION.
ON THE TENURE WE SEE SOME ACTION TODAY.
THE MARKETS EXPECTING THE WHISPER NUMBER 166.
MAYBE WE SEE YIELDS GOING HIGHER.
EURO-DOLLAR UNCHANGED WHICH IS INTERESTING GIVEN THE COMMENTS
FROM COUNCILMEMBERS THIS MORNING.
BASICALLY WE ARE WAITING TO SEE EXACTLY WHAT CAN HAPPEN WITH
THIS PAYROLL STORY. YESTERDAY WAS DEFINITELY WHAT
WE GOT OUT OF CHRISTINE LAGARDE. WE'VE BEEN COMMITTED -- THE
ECB'S BEEN COMMITTED FOR AGES PRAYED WE DELIVERED THAT
YESTERDAY BUT NOW CHRISTINE LAGARDE HAS DECIDED SHE WILL
PUT HER POKER FACE ON THE NOT TELL US WHAT COMES NEXT.
SHE WAS DEFINITELY NOT DELIVERING ON THAT AS A PITCH
YESTERDAY. SHE'S NOT TO TELL US ANYTHING.
LET'S LISTEN TO WHAT SHE HAD TO SAY. >> WE ARE NOT PRE-COMMITTING TO
A PARTICULAR RATE PATH. WE WILL FOLLOW THE
DATA-DEPENDENT AND MEETING BY MEETING APPROACH DETERMINING
THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL AND DURATION OF RESTRICTION.
IN PARTICULAR, OUR INTEREST RATE DECISION WILL BE BASED ON
OUR ASSESSMENT OF THE INFLATION OUTLOOK IN LIGHT OF THE
INCOMING IT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DATA. >> LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT WE GOT
FROM CHRISTINE LAGARDE. WHAT WE GOT THIS MORNING FROM A
WHOLE SERIES OF ECB SPEAKERS TELLING US WE ARE NOT
COMMITTING IN THE CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR GOING FURTHER.
SAYING YOU'RE NOT IN A RUSH TO HIKE AT ALL.
LIZZY BURDEN IS STANDING BY. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS
NEXT. THE GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBERS
THIS MORNING SAYING CLEARLY WE ARE NOT PRE-COMMITTING, WE ARE
DATA DEPENDENT. >> IT'S BEEN AN ABOUT-FACE FROM
CHRISTINE LAGARDE WHO'S BEEN TELLING -- TELEGRAPHING THAT
CUT SINCE WE SPOKE TO HER IN JANUARY.
IT FELL YESTERDAY THERE WAS NO CHOICE BUT TO CUT, OTHERWISE IT
WOULD'VE BEEN A HUGE SURPRISE IN THE MARKET AND YET THEY
CAUGHT WHILE RAISING THE INFLATION FORECAST FOR THIS
YEAR AND NEXT. WHICH FRANKLY FELT WEIRD.
YOU SAW THE EURO RISING OFF THE BACK OF IT AND THIS IS A
CENTRAL BANK THAT FACES QUESTIONS AROUND ITS
CREDIBILITY. YOU HAD HOLTZMAN FEELING THAT
HE COULD SEND BECAUSE OF THAT RECENT DATA. SAYING THIS DECISION IS
INDEPENDENT. IN TERMS OF THE PATH AHEAD WITH
A RAFT OF ECB SPEAKERS. SAYING HE DOESN'T KNOW HOW FAST
THE ECB WILL CARRY ON IF AT ALL. HE SANG THE ECB SHOULDN'T RUSH
INTO ANOTHER CUT. AND BECAUSE ASK SAYING THEY
NEED TO CUT GRADUALLY AND DEPENDENT ON THE DATA.
THERE'S A SENSE OF CONFUSION HERE.
TRADERS THOUGHT THEY WOULD HAVE TWO CUTS THIS YEAR, NOW THEY
ONLY SEE ONE. JULY SEEMS OFF THE TABLE,
THERE'S A QUESTION MARK AND THE MORE MEETINGS THIS GOES ON THE
MORE -- GUY: GREAT STUFF. IT'S INTERESTING THE ROLLING
BACK WE ARE SEEING. A TOUGHER LINE BEING PUT ON BY
SOME OF THE COUNCILMEMBERS THIS MORNING.
GREAT WORK OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. GLOBAL HEAD OF MACRO AT
FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL STANDING NEXT TO ME.
WE PRE-COMMITTED TO THE JUNE CUT.
WE GOT THAT BUT NOW THE POKER FACE IS ON.
THE ECB DOESN'T WANT TO TELL US WHAT COMES NEXT.
HAVE WE ENDED UP HAVING A CUT AND THEN THIS KIND OF HAWKISH
NARRATIVE IT APPEARS DEVELOPING. WHAT IS THAT TELL US ABOUT THE
INDECISION, THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE GOVERNING COUNCIL. >> BASICALLY THINK THE ECB FELL
INTO THAT MANIA WHEN THE FED PIVOTED LAST YEAR AND THE FED
YOU TURNED AFTER THAT BECAUSE DATA IN THE U.S.
ECONOMY WAS MUCH STRONGER AND THE FLOW OF DATA MADE IT MUCH
MORE CLEARER. OF COURSE AS THE TELEGRAPH CUT
CAME THROUGH OTHER FIND THEMSELVES IN A POSITION WHAT
IF THE FED DOESN'T CUT. AND THEN THEY ARE EXPOSED SO I
THINK THEY'RE TRYING TO RETAIN SOME OPTIONALITY AS WE GO
TOWARDS THE END OF THE YEAR. THEY CAN ALSO GO BACK IF THE
FED HAS A CLEAR PATH. >> WE DON'T KNOW WHERE THE NEXT
CUTS CAN COME AT -- IF AT ALL. HOW MUCH DANGER IS THERE THAT
YESTERDAY'S CUT WAS ONE AND DONE AND WHAT WOULD THAT DO TO
THE CREDIBILITY OF THE ECB DO YOU THINK? >> IT COMES THROUGH FROM HOW
THE INFLATION COMES TOGETHER. SO THEY HAVE ACKNOWLEDGED THE
PARTICULARS. YOU SEE INFLATION NOT GOING
BELOW 2% BY 2026. THAT HELPS THEM, BUT THIS ONE
OFF IF THEY ARE NOT ABLE TO CUT AGAIN WE LOOK AT OUR POLICY BUT
IF WE ZOOM OUT WHAT KIND OF WORLD WE ARE IN WHICH IS NOW
HIGHER FOR LONGER. THEY ARE TRYING TO ACKNOWLEDGE
THAT BECAUSE INFLATION IS STICKY AND THERE'S A GROWTH
REBOUND GOING ON. GUY: IN TERMS OF WHEN WE THINK THE
NEXT CUT COMES WITH YOUR CURRENT THOUGHT PROCESS. >> WE ARE OF THE VIEW THEY ARE
UNABLE TO CUT THIS YEAR. GUY: POWELL HAS SAID HE WANTS TO. >> IS VERY CLEAR, YOU DON'T
GUESS TOO MUCH ABOUT THAT. BUT WE THINK THEY WON'T ALLOW
THEM TO PAINT THAT NARRATIVE. AND THAT HAS IMPLICATIONS ON
THE ECB. WE THINK THEY WOULD ALSO LIKE
TO CUT ONCE MORE BUT THE FED WILL NOT ALLOW THEM SO IT'S
INTERCONNECTED EVEN THOUGH A LOT OF WHAT WE'VE SEEN SO FAR
IS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS ON EUROPE. >> IF WE DO NOT GET SIGNIFICANT
RATE CUTS IS THERE DATA THE ECONOMIC TRAJECTORY WE ARE ON
AT THE MOMENT AT SOME POINT POLICY IS GOING TO HAVE AN
IMPACT. ARE WE IN THE NO LANDING HARD
LANDING SCENARIO THAT LEAVES RATES ON HOLD PARTICULARLY IN
EUROPE WITH THE ECONOMY FEELS MORE VULNERABLE.
DOES THAT MEAN ULTIMATELY WHEN RECESSION ARRIVES IT WILL BE
MORE BRUTAL THAN IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN IF THE ECB ATTENDED A
COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT VIEW OF THE WORLD. >> AS YOU RIGHTLY POINTED OUT WE
ARE INCREASING THIS RISK OF A TRANSITION FROM A HARD -- NO
LANDING TO A HARD LANDING AND FORGETTING ABOUT SOFT LANDING.
THE CRITICAL FACTOR WILL BE A REFINANCING.
IT'S GOOD A PICK UP NEXT YEAR. THAT'S WHAT EFFECTIVE INTEREST
RATES WILL GO UP. THEY HAVE NOT BEEN HIT BY THOSE
HIGH RATES YET. BUT IT'S STARTING TO HAPPEN.
BECAUSE OF FISCAL POLICY DYNAMICS IT COULD BE A VERY
CRITICAL YEAR AND WE CAN HAVE A LOT OF THINGS WRONG RATHER THAN
2024 ITSELF. GUY: WHY ARE WE STRUGGLING TO FIGURE
OUT WHAT'S HAPPENING? THE CENTRAL BANKS ARE REALLY
STRUGGLING. MARKETS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING.
THIS WEEK WE'VE SEEN A HUGE RALLY FOR BOND MARKETS.
YIELDS OF COME DOWN SHARPLY AND I FEEL LIKE I'VE WATCHED THIS
MOVIE SIX OR SEVEN TIMES. WHY ARE WE STRUGGLING SO MUCH
AND WHEN DOES CLARITY REEMERGE IN TERMS OF WHAT'S HAPPENING
THE ECONOMY PRAYED ARE WE STILL IN THE POST-PANDEMIC ON A
HANGOVER PHASE. >> I THINK THE POST-PANDEMIC
PHASE IS STILL THERE. BUT THE SUPPLY-SIDE SHORTS ARE
VERY SEVERE AND THAT I THINK HAS CONTAMINATED A LOT OF
ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION BY CENTRAL BANKS. IN THE MARKETS ARE LESS FOCUSED
ON FUNDAMENTALS EVOLUTION. WE ARE MORE INTERESTED IN
NARRATIVE SHIFTING MARKET PRICING AND THAT'S WHY THOSE
FASTER CYCLES WE DON'T SEE THAT CHANGING ANYTIME SOON. GUY: HE'S GOOD TO BE TALKING ABOUT
HOW THE WAR IS EVOLVING. AND THE REASON I'M ASKING THIS
IS WHAT HE IS ASKING FOR HIS FINANCIAL SUPPORT THIS GOES TO
A WIDER QUESTION IN EUROPE WHICH IS WE NEED TO REARM, TO
SPEND HUGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY ON REARMAMENT SPRAYED AT THE SAME
TIME WE ARE DEALING WITH THE GREEN TRANSITION AND AN AGING
POPULATION. EUROPE NEEDS TO SPEND MORE.
TO WHAT EXTENT IS THAT PRICED INTO THE CURRENT BOND MARKET
SET UP AND EVEN IF YOU GET RATE CUTS, THE LONG END YIELDS STAY
WHERE THEY ARE BECAUSE OF THE MAGNITUDE OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING
IN THE GEOPOLITICS AND ELSEWHERE. SALMAN: THAT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT
LEGACY OF THE PANDEMIC AND THE WARS IN EUROPE REGARDING TO
THAT. YOU'VE SEEN THAT IN THE U.S.,
WE'VE SEEN THAT IN EUROPE ALTHOUGH ONE CAN ARGUE
ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTRIES OF GERMANY BECAUSE THEIR GDP RATIO
IS MUCH LOWER. IT ALSO MEANS THEY NEED MORE
COHESION BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES WHICH HAS BEEN DURING
THE PANDEMIC THAT WAS REPORTEDLY A STRONGER SIGN.
, SO YES THERE IS DEMAND FOR CAP X.
AND WE THINK THE CURVES WILL HAVE TO BE STEEPENED IN THE
NATIONAL SHAPE OF THE CURVE IS QUITE UP -- UPWARD SLOPING. GUY:
GREAT TO SEE YOU, WE REALLY APPRECIATE IT.
GLOBAL HEAD OF MACRO ASSET ALLOCATION JOINING US.
AS I SAY, ZELENSKYY IS CURRENTLY SPEAKING OF THE
FRENCH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AFTER YESTERDAY WE SAW THE FRENCH
PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON PROMISING BARRAGES, FIGHTER
JETS AND TRAINING, OF THIS ONGOING SPENDING ON MILITARY
ARMAMENTS. UP NEXT WE ARE TO BE TALKING
ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE TEXT BASE -- TECH SPACE.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG. >> WE ARE SAYING TO OURSELVES
WAIT A MINUTE, IF NVIDIA IS GOING TO KEEP RUNNING LIKE
THIS, OF THE ONLY REASON IT SHOULD DESERVE TO DO THAT IS IF
IT'S GOING TO BENEFIT A LOT OF OTHER COMPANIES.
AND WE BEGAN TO LOOK AT WHAT THOSE OTHER COMPANIES MIGHT BE. >> THAT'S OF COURSE CATHIE WOOD
OF ARC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT TALKING ABOUT THE RISK AROUND
NVIDIA AND THE BIG TECH STOCKS ON THE CYCLE WE SEE EXISTING.
I WAS TALKING TO A GUEST EARLIER ON ABOUT THE IDEA IT'S
COMPLETELY SEPARATE UNIVERSES TO THE MACRO STORY WE ARE
SEEING ELSEWHERE. THIS AFFECTS BROADER MARKETS.
LET'S TALK ABOUT WAS HAPPENING WITH THE MARKET PICTURE AND HOW
CAPITAL MARKETS ARE EVOLVING THIS YEAR.
DIFFERENTLY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS.
GLOBAL HEAD OF TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATIONS INVESTMENT
BANKING AT CITIGROUP STANDING NEXT TO ME. GOOD MORNING.
I IMAGINE YOU'RE FEELING GOOD AS WELL.
IT PRETTY BAD YEAR, IT FEELS AT THE CAPITAL MARKET STORY IS
BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO SOMETHING A LITTLE BIT STRONGER.
MY QUESTION IS IS THIS WHAT WERE SEEING INVOLVING IN THE
UNITED STATES STARTING TO PUT THEIR NOSES HERE IN EUROPE.
IS THAT SOMETHING THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED? >> IT'S DEFINITELY BEEN A MUCH
BETTER POST FIVE MONTHS OF 2024. 22, 23 WERE DIFFICULT YEARS COMING OFF THE HEELS OF A
RECORD 2021. IF WE GO THROUGH THE PRODUCTS,
DEBT FINANCING HAS BEEN VERY ROBUST. THERE'S A LOT OF TALK
ON BLOOMBERG THIS MORNING AROUND HOW MANY RATE CUTS THERE
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE DAY. IF YOU LOOK LONG-TERM
HISTORICAL TRAILING, THE 10 YEAR AT 4.30 IT'S A REASONABLE
LEVEL. IN HISTORICAL CONTEXT. WHAT'S IMPORTANT IS SPREADS ARE
PRETTY COMPRESSED, VERY COMPETITIVE. WE HAVE 8.2 ON OUR HIGH YIELD
INDEX, THAT'S ABOUT 360 OVER IN TERMS OF SPREADS OF THE
TREASURIES. WHEN WE GO TO EQUITY CAPITAL
MARKETS WE SEE SOME IPOS IN THE U.S.
AND THEY TRADED PRETTY WELL SO INVESTORS ARE SEEING POSITIVE
RETURNS. IN M & A WE HAVE SEEN STRATEGIC
BIDS COME BACK TO MARKET SO THAT'S BEEN THROUGH SYNERGIES
OF COMBINATIONS THEY ARE ABLE TO NAVIGATE HIGH FINANCING IN
WE'VE SEEN RELATIVE TO THE NEAR TERM.
WE'VE SEEN 18 TAKE PRIVATES GREATER THAN $1 BILLION IN WE
ARE STARTING TO SEE PRIVATE EQUITY ENTER FORMAL PROCESSES.
A SIGN OF GREATER CONFIDENCE. BEFORE WE WERE SEEING MORE
INFORMAL BILATERAL CONVERSATIONS SO THERE WOULDN'T
BE IF THOSE DEALS WENT THROUGH. NOW WE ARE SEEING FORMAL
PROCESSES. ON THAT POINT OF IS IT COMING
TOWARDS IN THE U.K.. IT'S EARLIER.
BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE IT HAPPEN. CITY LED THE $14 MILLION OF
PLACEMENT OF LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE ON REUTERS,
BLACKSTONE, CONSORTIUM. SO FOLLOWING OFFERINGS PRICED
TO THE REGION CONVERTED BONDS GETTING PRICED.
WE LED THE ALIBABA CONVERTIBLE, THIS ONE WILL BE A PRECURSOR TO
THE OPENING OF THE IPO MARKET. AND OBVIOUSLY ARAMCO WILL PRICE
DURING THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING AND THAT SOMETHING VERY
SIZABLE THE TRANSACTION. >> THAT FEELS A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT UNIVERSE TO WHAT WERE TALKING ABOUT. MY TAKE AWAY FROM THIS WEEK WAS
PRIVATE EQUITY WANTS TO OFFLOAD AND HE CAN PROBABLY DO SO WITH
ITS REALLY GOOD COMPANIES. THE CREAM OF THE CREAM THEY CAN
PROBABLY EXIT. THE REST OF THE PORTFOLIO IS
CAN IT BE A BIGGER STRUGGLE. ARE WE GOING TO SEE A STOP
START STORY WHERE WE GET A FEW COMING TO MARKET.
WE HAVE TO FIGURE OUT WHAT HAPPENS TO THE REST OF THE
PORTFOLIO. DOES IT GO BEYOND WHEN IT COMES
TO IPOS TOPLINE WHAT PORTFOLIOS HAVE AND HOW EASY IT'LL BE TO
OFFLOAD SOME OF THE STUFF. >> WHAT'S THE RATIO
DISTRIBUTIONS VERSUS CAPITAL. SO THE PRESSURE IS CERTAINLY
MOUNTING. PRIVATE EQUITY HAS OPTIONS.
YOU'VE GOT VERY COMPETITIVE MARKET WE'VE TALKED ABOUT.
BANK CREDIT, YOU'VE ALSO GOT THE PRIVATE CREDIT AS WELL. SELL SIDE M&A FOR THE PICKUP,
AND THE STRATEGIC BID THAT'S COMING TO THE MARKET IS
MEANINGFUL. AND AS THE IPO START TO, I
THINK YOU'LL GET SOME STRONG COMPANIES , GROWTH PLUS
PROFITABILITY COMING FIRST OF THE MARKET AND THEN WE WILL
REACH OUT. YOU HAVE DEPTH OF CAPITAL
MARKETS YOU HAVE A DECENT FINANCING MARKET, SO I THINK
THEIR PRIVATE OPTIONS FOR PRIVATE EQUITY AND PUBLIC
OPTIONS AND THAT'S A REASONABLE COMPETITIVE UNIVERSE THEY HAVE.
THEY DON'T JUST HAVE ONE AVENUE THEY NEED TO PURSUE. >> A FEW MONTHS AGO SOMEBODY
SAID -- AND YOU'VE SEEN SOME OF THE SHOW UP IN THE U.K..
THERE'S A LOT OF ACTIVITY THAT STARTING TO COME THROUGH NOW.
GIVE ME A SENSE OF THE TONE OF THE CONVERSATION WE SEE NOW.
IS IT CONTINUING, DO YOU HEAR ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF MORE
DEALS STILL TO COME. WHAT IS THE PIPELINE LOOK LIKE? >> THE CONVERSATIONS ARE
INCREASING. WHAT'S INTERESTING IS THE
STRATEGIC BID WE ARE SEEING. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS
DRIVING THAT. CORPORATE'S TODAY AROUND THE
WORLD ARE REALLY LOOKING AT THEIR BUSINESS PLANS AND
THINKING HOW IT IS AI TRANSFORM MY COMPANY AND THAT IS
IMPACTING THEIR M & A DECISIONS. CITI ADVISED IBM ON THE
ACQUISITION. THAT'S AN EXAMPLE YOU SAW THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS PALO ALTO NETWORKS ANNOUNCING THEIR
COMBINATION WITH IBM. YOU SAW MICROSOFT'S INVESTMENT
IN THE LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE. WE'VE SEEN OPENAI NOW NOT JUST
WITH MICROSOFT BUT ALSO ANNOUNCING WITH APPLE SO YOU'RE
SEEING THESE JOINT VENTURES. I WAS AT A CONFERENCE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY THIS WEEK AND THE AMOUNT OF CONVERSATION AROUND
DATA CENTERS DRIVEN BY AI, THE AMOUNT OF FUNDING TAKING PLACE
OVER THE NEXT FIVE TO 10 YEARS IS TRANSFORMATIONAL. SO AI IS REALLY GOING TO DRIVE
M&A AND TRANSFORMATION. WE'VE SEEN A SOFTWARE RESELLING.
PARTLY BECAUSE THE DISTRACTION OF ENTERPRISE SPEND AROUND AI
AND DATA. NOW I BELIEVE AND WE BELIEVE
THIS WILL BE A LONG-TERM WINNER, BUT THEY NEED TO
DEVELOP VAI INCUMBENT CAPABILITIES. GUY:
GREAT TO SEE YOU PHILIP. PLENTY MORE STILL TO COME
TAKING YOU BACK TO WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THE MARKETS.
WE WAIT TO SEE EXACTLY WHAT KEITH GILMAN HAS TO SAY FOR
HIMSELF. GETTING BACK ONTO YOUTUBE, WHAT
WE EXPECT THERE. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. GUY: COUPLE OF THINGS RIGHT NOW,
GAMESTOP IS UP. 32% VERY VOLATILE STOCK.
THE OTHER ONE IS WE ARE WATCHING THE FRENCH NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY. VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY IS CURRENTLY ADDRESSING FRENCH
PARLIAMENTARIANS. THAT IS COVERING THE LIVE
PICTURE YOU ARE GETTING FROM FRANCE OBVIOUSLY WE ARE SEEING
ONGOING COMMEMORATIONS AROUND THE ANNIVERSARY OF D-DAY.
WE WILL BE BACK TO THE MARKET STORY IN JUST A MOMENT.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ GUY: GOOD MORNING.
WHAT DO YOU NEED TO KNOW. WALL STREET FUTURE STUDY. THE LABOR MARKET IS SUFFERING
BUT BY HOW MUCH IN THE UNITED STATES. ECB OFFICIALS CAUTIONING
AGAINST A RUSH FOR MORE CUTS AFTER THE GOVERNING COUNCIL
DELIVERED THE JUNE CUT. WHAT COMES NEXT.
PLUS PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY ADDRESSES THE FRENCH PARLIAMENT
OR IS DOING SO RIGHT NOW. THIS AFTER A SESSION YESTERDAY PROMISING UKRAINE MORE THAN --
MORE SUPPORT. I'M GUY JOHNSON LONDON.
LIVE PICTURES OUT OF PARIS RIGHT NOW, THE LOTTERY
ZELENSKYY ADDRESSING THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY IN PARIS.
THIS ALL PART OF THE 80TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ALLIED
INVASION OF FRANCE ON D-DAY. THE PRESIDENT OF THE NIGHT
STATES MAKING PARALLELS TO THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE.
THAT STORY ON MANY PEOPLE'S MINDS.
SPEAKING TO FRENCH TELEVISION, THE FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL
MACRON SAYS FRANCE WILL SEND FIGHTER JETS TO KYIV AND TRAIN
SOLDIERS TO HELP. LET'S TAKE A LISTEN TO WHAT HE
HAD TO SAY. >> WE WILL LEND NEW COOPERATION
AND ANNOUNCE THE TRANSFER OF MIRAGE 2005 FRENCH FIGHTER JETS.
TO ALLOW UKRAINE TO PROTECTED SOIL.
ITS AIRSPACE AND STARTING A PILOT TRAINING PROGRAM. >> AN INTERESTING QUESTION
ABOUT HOW LONG THIS CONFLICT IS LIKELY THE LAST FOUR.
WE ARE JOINED BY THE BLOOMBERG NEWS DIRECTOR FOR EMEA.
LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT COMMITMENT.
THEY ARE NOT TO GET THEM FOR A WHILE.
THESE ARE NOT GOING FOR A WHILE AND IT CAN IT TAKE A WHILE TO
TRAIN THE PILOTS. PRESUMABLY THERE IS AN
EXPECTATION BY THE FRENCH THIS CONFLICT ISN'T GOING TO END
ANYTIME SOON. >> IF THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT
MILITARY EQUIPMENT AND TRAINING WHICH WILL ONLY BEAR FRUIT FOR
UKRAINE AT LEAST AT THE END OF THE YEAR.
AND AS YOU CAN -- AS HE STATES THE OLDER EQUIPMENT SO EUROPE
IS AT THE POINT WHERE THEY ARE SCRAPING THE BARREL WITH OLD
TANKS AND PLANES. SINCE A LOT OF EQUIPMENT THERE
ALREADY, BUT WHOSE REPLACING THE STOCKS AT THE BACK END FOR
FRANCE AND GERMANY AND OTHER COUNTRIES IN EASTERN EUROPE AND
HOW QUICKLY CANNOT BE DONE. THEY'RE RELYING ON OLDER
EQUIPMENT BECAUSE THEY DON'T REALLY HAVE MUCH ELSE TO SEND
TO UKRAINE AND IT TAKES TIME. IT TAKES TIME TO TRAIN THEM AND
BE COMFORTABLE WITH USING SOME OF THIS EQUIPMENT.
IT THERE IS ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT THIS COULD BE GOING GREAT
RUSSIA IS MAKING A FRESH PUSH PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST
OF UKRAINE. UKRAINE'S PUSHING BACK HEAVILY
ON THAT BUT THINGS ARE NOT GOING PARTICULARLY WELL ON THE
GROUND. IS THIS WAR JUST IN A RUN AND
RUN. IS IT TO HIS ADVANTAGE THAT IT
DOES SO AND IS THERE ANY WAY OUT FOR THIS TO COME TO A
CONCLUSION. >> WE SAW THIS MORNING BETWEEN
THE U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY AND THE
FRENCH DEFENSE MINISTER BRING WHAT'S COMING OUT OF THESE
MEETINGS. WHAT CAME OUT OF THE MEETING
YESTERDAY AS WELL. THEY ARE ALL MEETING WITH THE
D-DAY CELEBRATIONS COMMEMORATIONS, WHAT IS COMING
OUT OF THESE CONVERSATIONS. DO WE KNOW? >> SOME OF IT IS THE OPTICS TO
MAKE SURE UKRAINE DOES NOT FALL OFF THE RADAR IN THE PUBLIC
CONSCIOUSNESS. WE HAVE THE CONFLICT IN THE
MIDDLE EAST, WE HAVE A LOT OF THINGS GOING ON.
THE WAR IN UKRAINE'S BEEN HAPPENING FOR SEVERAL YEARS AND
YOU CAN SEE NATURALLY THE FIGHT FOR IT TO REMAIN FRONT OF MIND
FOR PEOPLE AND COUNTRIES AND POLICYMAKERS IS THERE SO THE
OPTICS OF ZELENSKYY IN NORMANDY WITH THE U.S.
PRESIDENT TALKING TO U.S. VETERANS, TALKING WITH MACRON
ALL OF IT IS ABOUT KEEPING IT FRONT OF MIND FOR THE PUBLIC
BECAUSE YOU NEED THEIR SUPPORT FOR FRANCE AND GERMANY AND THE
U.S. AND OTHERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
FOR THE FINANCIAL AID. >> U.S.
CEO'S MAKING THAT COMPARISON DIRECTLY BETWEEN WHAT HAPPENED
WITH D-DAY, THEY'RE MAKING THAT EXACT COMPARISON.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH INDEED. WE'VE JUST SEEN THE WRAPPING UP
OF THAT ADDRESS BY THE UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT TO THE
FRENCH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY. A MEETING COMING UP LATER ON. BIDEN AND ZELENSKYY MEETING IN
PARIS AROUND 11:15 U.K. TIME. WE'VE ALSO GOT THIS COMING
AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS. THAT CONTINUES OVER THIS
WEEKEND. THIS IS A VOTE THAT WILL HELP
SET POLICY FOR YEARS TO COME. WE SEE THE NETHERLANDS
YESTERDAY, IRELAND AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC TODAY.
27 OVER THE WEEKEND. REPORTS GETTING IN ON WHAT'S
HAPPENING PRAYED WE ARE JOINED TO GET AN UPDATE ON WHAT'S
TAKING PLACE. STEPHEN JOINS US FROM BRUSSELS.
WE'VE BEEN TALKING WITH THE BACKDROP OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE.
HOW BIG OF AN IMPACT WILL THAT HAVE ON THESE ELECTIONS?
STEPHEN: FOR SOME IT IS THE CENTRAL
ISSUE IN THIS CAMPAIGN. SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE AND WHAT
THE EUROPEAN UNION CAN DO TO MOBILIZE THAT SUPPORT IS THE
KEY ISSUE FACING EUROPE NOW. LET'S THINK ABOUT WHAT THAT
MEANS IN POLICY TERMS AND FOR THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY BECAUSE
WHAT THEY CAN DO IS LARGELY TO THE DEFENSE INDUSTRY.
THAT'S WHAT THEY'RE COMMITTED TO DOING IN MARCH OF 2022 IN
THE VERSAILLES DECLARATION TO RAMP UP PROCUREMENT, INCREASING
INVESTMENT IN BUILDING THE MACHINERY SO EUROPE CAN REPLACE
THAT MACHINERY YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT A MOMENT AGO AS WELL
PRAYED THIS IS WHAT EUROPEAN POLITICIANS SEE IS THE KEY
ISSUE BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE LATEST POLLING AHEAD OF THESE
ELECTIONS , VOTERS ARE INTERESTED MORE IN
COST-OF-LIVING INFLATION IN THE ECONOMY AND PUBLIC HEALTH.
THOSE ARE THE TOP ISSUES FOR VOTERS AS WELL.
THIS IS HAPPENING IN 27 EUROPEAN MEMBER STATES.
QUITE OFTEN NATIONAL POLITICS GETS IN THE WAY AS WELL AND THE
CAMPAIGNS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT AND THAT HAS A BEARING AS WELL
AND WHAT SORT OF RESULTS WE GET. >> WHEN WE START TO GET THOSE
RESULTS THERE'S IN ANTICIPATION WE WILL SEE MAY BE BROADLY A
MOVE TO THE RIGHT. HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS START TO
AFFECT POLICY? HOW QUICKLY WILL THIS
FEEDTHROUGH INTO THE WAY THE EU APPROACHES THE CHALLENGES THAT
COME NEXT AND HOW QUICKLY DOES NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW THE
LEADERS OF EUROPE ADDRESS THOSE CHALLENGES AS WELL? STEPHEN: IT'S A CLEAR SIGNAL WE LOOK AT
FROM THESE ELECTIONS AS TO HOW THE ELECTORATE IS FEELING ABOUT
THESE ISSUES AND THAT IS SOMETHING FROM THOSE WE BEEN
SPEAKING TO HIM BLOOMBERG TODAY THAT WHAT WE SEE IS MORE LIKELY
THE CENTER PARTIES STARTING TO DRIFT TO THE RIGHT TO ADOPT
SOME OF THOSE POLICIES TO ENSURE THEY ARE REFLECTING THAT
INTEREST FROM VOTERS AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A QUESTION OF A
RESHUFFLING IN EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AS WELL. PARTIES MOVING GROUPS, HOW YOU
BUILD A MAJORITY FOR SUPPORT IN THE EU COMMISSION PRESIDENT.
WE KNOW URSULA VON DER LEYEN WANTS A SECOND TERM AT THAT JOB
AS WELL. WILL SHE BE ABLE TO BUILD A
MAJORITY COALITION FROM THE CURRENT PARTNERS OR WILL SHE
NEED TO BRING IN EUROPEAN CONSERVATIVE REFORMISTS WHO ARE
FURTHER TO THE RIGHT GROUPS. INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THAT
PLAYS OUT. THAT CAN HAPPEN QUITE QUICKLY.
WE WILL HAVE THIS NOMINATION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION.
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER THIS MONTH AND LIKELY INTO JULY.
WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT PROCESS. YOU WILL BE SURE THAT THOSE
EUROPEAN LEADERS WILL BE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT HOW PEOPLE VOTED
AND HOW THEY ARE DRAWING UP THE POLICY STRATEGY FOR THE NEXT
FIVE YEARS. WE COULD SEE THOSE IMPLEMENTED
EVEN IF THOSE PARTIES ARE NOT IN A GOVERNING MAJORITY IN THE
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT. >> COVERAGE CONTINUES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WORKING TOWARDS THAT RESULT.
STEPHEN JOINING US OUTSIDE THE COMMISSION IN BRUSSELS.
WE WILL TALK ABOUT SECURITY, HOW AI IS REALLY SHAPING
CYBERSECURITY, WHAT IS IT GOING TO MEAN, HOW WILL IT AFFECT
INDUSTRY PER WE WILL DISCUSS ALL OF THAT.
THE CEO OF THE IDENTITY VERIFICATION FIRM JOINING US
NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ >> WE NEED TO HAVE AN AI GAME
PLAN. IN WHAT GOT STARTED IN 2010 AND
BEFORE THAT WE USED TO SAY EVERY COMPANY NEEDS TO THINK
ABOUT BECOMING A SOFTWARE COMPANY OR THE DIGITAL SIDE OF
THEIR BUSINESS. NOW WE SAY THAT EVERY COMPANY
NEEDS TO BECOME AN INTELLIGENT SOFTWARE COMPANY.
AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE BUYERS OF OUR COMPANIES ALL THE EXITS
WE'VE HAD OF THE LAST 18 MONTHS, MANY OF THEM ARE
INDUSTRY BUYERS THAT ARE LOOKING TO TRANSFORM THEIR
COMPANIES THROUGH SOFTWARE. GUY: TALKING TO DANI BURGER AT THE
CONFERENCE IN BERLIN. TALKING ABOUT THE AI GAME PLAN
HE THINGS EVERYBODY HAS TO HAVE RIGHT NOW. AI IS MANIFESTING ITSELF IN A
NUMBER OF DIFFERENT WAYS AND THE SECURITY INDUSTRY IS HAVING
TO DEAL WITH THOSE DIFFERENT PERMUTATIONS.
AND SECURITY REMAINS ONE OF THE KEY AREAS THEY HAVE A LOOK --
THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE FOCUSING ON.
BECOMING EVER MORE IMPORTANT AND YOU CAN SEE THAT WITH SOME
OF THE ANNOUNCEMENTS WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT APPLE WILL BE
MAKING. BLOOMBERG UNDERSTANDS APPLE HAS
THIS BIG CONFERENCE COMING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL DEBUT A
NEW APP NEXT WEEK CALLED PASSWORDS.
IT IS BASICALLY MAKING IT EASIER FOR CUSTOMERS TO LOG
ONTO WEBSITES BUT DO IT SECURELY BECAUSE WE NOW
INCREASINGLY UNDERSTAND THE IMPACT AI AND OTHER PRODUCTS
WILL HAVE IN TERMS OF THEIR SECURITY STORY.
DATA BREACHES ARE BECOMING CONCERNING FOR BUSINESSES
ACROSS THE GLOBE INCLUDING THE IDENTITY VERIFICATION FIRM.
SHARES IN THE COMPANY TUMBLED AFTER IT WAS HACKED THOUGH IT'S
RALLIED SIGNIFICANT LEASE SINCE THEN.
IT GIVES YOU AN IDEA OF THE EVOLUTION AND THE BUMPY RIDE
THAT WE ARE ALL GOING THROUGH AS WE WORK OUR WAY THROUGH THIS
PROCESS. THE COMPANY CEO IS STANDING
NEXT TO ME. >> THANKS FOR HAVING ME. GUY:
AI REPRESENTED OPPORTUNITY AND A THREAT TO YOUR BUSINESS. HOW ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT ITS
EVOLUTION AND HOW IT ULTIMATELY CHANGES WHAT YOU DO.
WE ARE HEARING ALL KINDS OF STORIES ALREADY ABOUT HOW AI IS
JUST MAKING IDENTITY VERIFICATION A HARDER AND
HARDER CHALLENGE. >> THIS A TENDENCY TO THINK OF
THIS FROM THE TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVE BUT WE LIKE TO
START FROM THE CUSTOMERS AND WHAT ARE THEY STRUGGLING WITH. WE'VE GREAT CUSTOMERS IN THE
U.K. AND WHAT THEY ARE THINKING ABOUT IS HOW CAN THEY BUILD NEW
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES, HOW CAN THEY USE THIS NEW SMART WAVE OF
TECHNOLOGY TO ADJUST THEIR CUSTOMER NEEDS AND THEIR
MARKETS AND FEND OFF THEIR COMPETITORS.
IDENTITY IS AT THE CENTER OF THAT BECAUSE THE NEW AI
INNOVATIONS NEED TO BE DELIVERED TO PEOPLE.
IT HAS TO BE EASY TO ACCESS AND SECURITY.
THAT THE LENS THAT WE LOOK AT IT FROM.
THAT'S THE OPPORTUNITY BUT IT'S ALSO A THREAT.
THAT'S WHY IT'S INCUMBENT UPON US AS THE TECHNOLOGY VENDOR TO
SAY HOW CAN WE HELP CUSTOMERS MEET THIS OPPORTUNITY BUT AT
THE SAME TIME, WE ARE USED TO THAT. GUY: HOW IS HOW I INTERACT WITH
COMPANIES IN A CHANGE PRAYED AS A VENDOR OR SUPPLIER CAN A
CHANGE IN THE WAY I INTERACT, HOW IS A CUSTOMER IN MY GET A
CHANGE THE WAY I INTERACT WITH THESE COMPANIES.
VERIFYING MY IDENTITY IS GOOD TO BE MORE AND MORE CRITICAL
AND INSURING THAT I AM WHO I SAY I AM IS GOOD TO BE REALLY
PIVOTAL. TODD: THE DREAM OF CUSTOMERS IN THE
INDUSTRY IS WE WANT IT TO BE EASIER. THIS HAS BEEN TOO HARD.
THE FACT APPLE HAS TO RELEASE A PASSWORD MANAGER.
IT MEANS WE HAVE TOO MANY PASSWORDS.
WE WANT TO ELIMINATE THAT, MOVE TO BIOMETRIC AUTHENTICATORS
THAT CAN BE FISHED. TO MAKE IT EASIER FOR PEOPLE TO
CONNECT WITH THESE SERVICES. CHATGPT FROM OPENAI, WE ARE
HELPING THEM PROVIDE PASSWORDS AND LOGIN TO CHATGPT. >> HOW WAS THAT CAN A CHANGE IN
THE AI WORLD BECAUSE I'M HEARING STORIES OF PEOPLE
LOGGING INTO SYSTEMS USING SOPHISTICATED AI THAT LOOKS
LIKE ME AND THAT THE BIOMETRIC THAT RESEMBLED ME.
HOW DOES THE WAY THIS STORY GOING TO EVOLVE CHANGE? >> THE TECHNOLOGY HAS TO
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TO MEET THAT THREAT.
IT USED TO BE PEOPLE WOULD FIGURE PASSWORD AND SECURITY IS
NOT ADVERSARIAL RELATIONSHIP SO THE THREAT ACTORS CAN A TRY TO
FAKE BIOMETRIC AUTHENTICATION AND DEEPFAKE VIDEOS TO HAVE
PROOF OF VERIFICATION. WE HAVE TO KEEP UP TO DEPLOY
THE TECHNOLOGY TO MEET THAT THREAT. >> HOW ARE YOU EVOLVING YOUR
COMPANY TO DO THAT? ARE YOU CHANGING YOUR
ACQUISITION STRATEGY, ARE YOU CHANGING YOUR TALENT
ACQUISITION STRATEGY AS WELL? HOW ARE YOU CHANGING THE WAY
YOU APPROACH WHAT YOU DO. TODD: WE RELEASED A CAPABILITY WHICH
COMBINES THE DATA WE HAVE FROM HER OVER 7000 PLUS INTEGRATIONS
ON THE PLATFORM AND OVER 19,000 CUSTOMERS AND WE ARE PUMPING
THAT DATA INTO VARIOUS AI MODELS AND CAPABILITIES SO WE
CAN PROVIDE NEW PRODUCTS LIKE A NEW ONE CALLED IDENTITY THREAT
-- IDENTITY THEFT PROTECTION USES THAT DATA TO PROTECT
THREATS AND CUSTOMERS FROM THE EMERGING THREATS BASED ON THE
THREATS OF THE PAST. >> ARE YOU SPENDING MORE I GUESS IS THE
QUESTION I'M GETTING TO. ALL I HEAR ABOUT FROM THE
TECHNOLOGY IS OF THEIR CAPEX IS GOING THROUGH THE ROOF BECAUSE
OF AI. TODD: IT IS AN INVESTMENT FOR US.
IT'S MOSTLY WERE LEVERAGING SOME OF THE GREAT WORK FROM THE
CLOUD COMPANIES IN THE INFRASTRUCTURE HYPER SCALARS
AND THEN COMBINING THAT WITH WHAT WE HAVE ON OUR PLATFORMS
TO DO SOMETHING THAT'S PRETTY EFFICIENT IN TERMS OF
DELIVERING VALUES. >> SO WHERE ARE YOU INVESTING
IF YOU'RE USING THE CLOUD HARNESSING THE HYPER SCALARS. WHERE ARE YOU HAVING TO INVEST
TO MAKE THIS WORK AND IS THIS CAPEX RISING THROUGH THE AI
CYCLE. >> IT'S BASICALLY R&D FOR US.
SMART SOFTWARE ENGINEERS, SMART PRODUCT DESIGNERS.
THOSE CAPABILITIES DIRECTLY TO WHAT THE CUSTOMERS NEED. GUY: HOW DOES THE PICTURE -- >> IN
PAST TECHNOLOGY WAVES IT SEEMED THE UNITED STATES WAS FIRST IN
INTEREST AND EUROPE TRAILED. THIS ONE SEEMS TO BE THE
INTEREST IS KIND OF RUNNING PARALLEL. EVERYONE'S EXCITED ABOUT THE AI
CAPABILITIES WHETHER I'M TALKING TO A GREAT EUROPEAN
FIRM OR U.S.-BASED FIRM. >> IT'S BEEN IN THE R&D LABS,
IT'S BEEN GOING ON FOR 10 YEARS OR MORE.
I THINK THE GREAT APPLICATIONS COMING OUT NOW LIKE CHATGPT
IT'S REALLY GIVING PEOPLE A CONCRETE EXAMPLE OF HOW VIABLE
THIS COULD BE SO IT'S TURNED THE INVESTIGATION INTO A
DEPLOYMENT INTO OVERDRIVE. AND I THINK WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
TO FOUR YEARS YOU'LL SEE MANY MORE APPLICATIONS. GUY:
GREAT TO SEE YOU, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US IN THE STUDIO. CHIEF EXECUTIVE AND COFOUNDER
AT OCTOBER WE WILL TAKE YOU BACK TO THE JOBS DATA EXPECTED
TO DROP. THAT'S THE BIG CATALYST WE ARE
WAITING FOR PRAYED WE AWAIT THOSE NUMBERS BUT WE WILL
DISCUSS IT NEXT, THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ >> ARE WE TODAY MOVING INTO A
DIALING BACK PHASE? I WOULD NOT VOLUNTEER THAT.
AS I SAID WE ARE MAKING A DECISION ON THE BASIS OF THE
CONFIDENCE THAT WE HAVE THAT WE ARE ON THE PATH.
WE KNOW IT'S GOOD TO BE A BUMPY ROAD.
THE NEXT FEW MONTHS WILL BE BUMPY. >> CHRISTINE LAGARDE KEEPING
HER CARDS CLOSE TO THE CHEST. WE SEEN A SERIES OF ECB SPEAKERS INDICATING THAT STORY,
THE CENTRAL BANK GOVERNORS SAYING WE MIGHT SEE A PERIOD
WHERE WE DON'T KNOW WHAT'S CAN HAPPEN.
MLIV STRATEGIST VEN RAM JOINS US FROM DUBAI.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES THE ECB IS ONE AND DONE? VEN:
I THINK THEY ARE REMOTE. I THINK HE IS NOT THE ONLY
MEMBER OF THE GOVERNING COUNCIL. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW DOVES ON
THE GOVERNING COUNCIL, BUT I THINK THE MESSAGE IS YOU CAN
EXPECT BACK TO BACK SUCCESSIVE RATE CUTS.
THIS IS NOT A NORMAL CYCLE. I THINK THE ECB TOOK MEASURED
STEPS HERE PARTICULARLY BECAUSE THEY IMPROVE THE FORECAST BUT
IF YOU LOOK AT THE REAL POLICY RATE FOR THE ECB IT'S ABOUT 100
BASIS POINTS SO IF IT'S ABOUT 100 BASIS POINTS THERE'S NOT
TOO MUCH TO CUT. THAT'S I THINK THE TAKEAWAY
MESSAGE FOR THINKING THEY'RE NOT GOING TO BE DOING THAT
AGAIN. I DO THINK IT'S NOT ONE AND
DONE BUT IT WILL BE MEASURED CUTS. >> MAY BE ANOTHER ONE TOWARDS
THE BACK END OF THIS YEAR. LET'S TALK ABOUT 8:30 EASTERN
TODAY. GETTING THE PAYROLL NUMBER, THE
SURVEY NUMBER IS 180. THE WHISPER NUMBERS IN THEM ONE
60'S. WE'VE SEEN A DECENT RALLY IN
THE BOND MARKET THIS WEEK BUT WITH THAT SET UP IS THERE A
DANGER THAT THAT BOND RALLY HITS A WALL WHERE WE SEE THAT
DATA DROPPING? VEN: THE BOND IS A SELF-LIMITING
GUIDE. I EXPECT IT'S GOING TO POINT TO
A CONTINUOUS EXPANSION THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR YEARS NOW.
SO THE JOBS MARKET IS PRETTY ROBUST. UNLESS WE GET A BIG
SHIFT IN THE JOBS EARNINGS NUMBER AND AN INCREASE IN THE
JOBLESS NUMBER I WOULDN'T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE PAYROLL
DATA BECAUSE SIMPLY THE FED IS GOING TO LOOK AT IT AS
INCREMENTAL PIECE OF EVIDENCE THE ECONOMY IS COOLING, LOSING
MOMENTUM. PROBABLY YOU WANT -- WITH 2%
INFLATION IT'S STILL NOT IN SIGHT AND THE ECONOMY JUST
HUMMING ALONG OK. THIS IS GOING TO TAKE A HARD
LANDING FOR THE FED TO BE CUTTING RATES WHICH IS WHY IT'S
HARD TO SEE THE FRONT-END TREASURIES RALLY TOO MUCH WITH
THE DATA. GUY: WE SEEN SIGNIFICANT VOLATILITY
IN INDIAN ASSETS OVER THE FEW DAYS. THE MARKETS BOUGHT THE DIP.
DO YOU THINK THE MARKETS NOW HAVE MOMENTUM, THAT EQUITIES
HAVE MOMENTUM TO THE UPSIDE. DOES THE BUYING OF THE DIP
CONTINUE? VEN: I DON'T EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
BECAUSE MARKETS ARE KIND OF OVERBOUGHT.
IF YOU LOOK AT INDIA'S MARKET CAPITALIZATION VIS-A-VIS ITS
GDP , THE MARKETS ARE THE MOST IN -- ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD.
SO INVESTORS ARE INVESTED TO THE GILLS ON INDIAN STOCKS IN
PARTICULAR NOT SO MUCH THE BONDS SO THEY ARE HEAVILY
INVESTED IN INDIAN STOCKS SO WHAT IS THE PROPOSITION TO
INVEST A MARGINAL DOLLAR IN INDIAN STOCKS AND AT THE MOMENT
IT'S VERY LITTLE. I EXPECT THERE TO BE A
CORRECTION. BUT LONGER-TERM I THINK THE U.S.
ECONOMY GROWS AS WELL IS THE REVISED OF THE GROWTH THIS
MORNING AND IF IT CONTINUES IT PAYS TO GROW AT 7% IN FIVE
YEARS TIME THOSE STOCKS WILL BE DOING VERY WELL. GUY:
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND, THANK YOU VERY MUCH INDEED.
WE'VE GOT A BIDEN ZELENSKYY MEETING COMING UP AT 11:15 U.K.
TIME. WE HAVE THE BIG PAYROLL NUMBER
COMING UP AS WELL. STEVE WOZNIAK JOINS US MONDAY.
