IT'S 9 A.M. HERE IN NEW YORK CITY. I'M SEANA SMITH, ALONGSIDE BRAD SMITH. AND THIS IS YAHOO FINANCE'S FLAGSHIP SHOW THE MORNING BRIEF. STOCK FUTURES. THEY ARE MIXED THIS MORNING. WHILE TREASURY YIELDS ARE FALLING TO START THE HOLIDAY SHORTENED TRADING WEEK. >> AND INVESTORS ARE NOW FIRMLY BACK ON INFLATION. WATCH COUNTING DOWN TO THE RELEASE. THE RELEASE OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S PREFERRED PCE GAUGE. THAT'S THEIR PREFERRED INFLATION GAUGE ON FRIDAY. MARKETS ARE CURRENTLY PRICING IN A 48% CHANCE THE FED DOES NOT CUT IN SEPTEMBER, ACCORDING TO THE CME FEDWATCH TOOL. SO LET'S GET TO IT WITH THE THREE THINGS THAT YOU NEED TO KNOW THIS MORNING. YOUR ROADMAP FOR THE TRADING DAY. YAHOO FINANCE'S JARED BLIKRE, JENNIFER SCHONBERGER AND MADISON MILLS HAVE MORE. >> THAT'S RIGHT BRAD. STOCK FUTURES MIXED AHEAD OF A BUSY WEEK FOR INVESTORS WITH KEY INFLATION DATA IN FOCUS. MARKETS ARE POISED FOR STRONG GAINS TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH THANKS TO SOFTER INFLATION READINGS EARLIER IN MAY AND BETTER THAN EXPECTED EARNINGS REPORTS THAT HELPED LIFT MARKET SENTIMENT. WE'LL SEE IF THE MARKET'S MOMENTUM CAN LAST AND THE GREAT RATE DEBATE CONTINUES. >> INVESTORS ARE SCALING BACK EXPECTATIONS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL MAKE ITS FIRST INTEREST RATE CUT BY SEPTEMBER. MINNEAPOLIS FED PRESIDENT NEEL KASHKARI SAID IN AN INTERVIEW WITH CNBC ON TUESDAY. THE CENTRAL BANK NEEDS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS ON INFLATION BEFORE CUTTING RATES. INVESTORS WILL GAIN MORE CLARITY ON POTENTIALLY WHEN THE FEDERAL RESERVE COULD BEGIN CUTTING RATES, WHEN APRIL'S PERSONAL INCOME AND EXPENDITURES REPORT IS DUE OUT ON FRIDAY AND WE'LL GET A FRESH READ ON THE CONSUMER THIS WEEK. >> WE'VE GOT COSTCO, BEST BUY AND DOLLAR GENERAL. ARE MANY OF THE RETAILERS SET TO REPORT THEIR QUARTERLY RESULTS COMING UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS? INVESTORS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNS THAT THE RESILIENCE AND CONSUMER SPENDING IS DWINDLING, AFTER RECENT REPORTS FROM MACY'S AND LOWE'S REVEALED THAT CONSUMERS ARE CUTTING BACK ON SOME PURCHASES. >> WELL, GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, EVERYONE. IF YOU'RE STILL SAYING MONDAY, YOU WOULDN'T BE THE ONLY ONE OUT THERE. BUT YES, THIS THE FIRST DAY OF THE TRADING WEEK HERE, AS WE'VE GOT A HOLIDAY ABBREVIATED ONE HERE ON DECK. TOP STORY OF THIS MORNING, THE DATA FILLED WEEK AHEAD AND WHAT IT WILL MEAN FOR THE ECONOMY. WE'LL GAIN INSIGHT ON MONETARY POLICY FROM THE FED WITH A SLEW OF SPEAKERS ON THE DATA FRONT, WE'VE GOT CASE-SHILLER OUT THIS MORNING. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN JUST UNDER AN HOUR AND A READ ON THE ECONOMY WITH Q1 GDP THAT COMES THURSDAY. AND THIS ALL CULMINATES IN THAT BIG PCE REPORT ON FRIDAY AND EARNINGS SEASON. IT'S NOT OVER YET. THERE'S A NUMBER OF CONSUMER FACING COMPANIES REPORTING THIS WEEK. TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE LOGOS HOUSEHOLD NAMES. YOU'VE GOT KIVA THE BUSINESS OF LUNCH OUT AFTER THE BELL TODAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WE'LL HEAR FROM THE LIKES OF ABERCROMBIE. YOU'VE GOT DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, YOU'VE GOT FOOT LOCKER FOR ALL THE FEETS OUT THERE, AND THEN ADDITIONALLY, DOLLAR GENERAL, COSTCO, ULTA AND MORE. SO ALL OF THOSE NESTLED IN THERE ALSO, WE'VE GOT SOME OF THE REMAINING TECH RESULTS. YOU'VE GOT COMPANIES LIKE SALESFORCE, C3, AI, OKTA, HP, DELL AND ZSCALER. SO ALL THAT AND MUCH, MUCH MORE COMING ON THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS WEEK SEANA. >> ALL RIGHT BRAD CERTAINLY IS GOING TO BE A BUSY WEEK HERE FOR THE MARKETS. WILL MAJOR AVERAGES ARE ON TRACK FOR THEIR BEST MONTH OF THE YEAR SO FAR. WE'VE GOT THE NASDAQ THE NASDAQ 100. THE S&P 500 ARE ALL HAVING THEIR BEST RUN THAT WE'VE SEEN SINCE NOVEMBER. AND THE DOW NEARING ITS BEST MONTH SINCE 2023. SO HERE TO BREAK THIS ALL DOWN, PUT IT INTO CONTEXT FOR US. WE WANT TO BRING IN STEVE SOSNICK. HE'S INTERACTIVE BROKERS CHIEF STRATEGIST HERE TO DISCUSS THAT AND A LOT MORE. SO STEVE, BRAD WAS JUST TALKING ABOUT EVERYTHING THAT WE HAVE ON DECK HERE THIS WEEK FOR THE MARKETS. AND OBVIOUSLY WE CAME INTO THE MONTH OF MAY TALKING ABOUT THE SELL IN MAY GO AWAY NOTION THAT DOESN'T REALLY SEEM TO HAVE REALLY TAKEN PLACE JUST YET. SO HOW ARE WE SET UP HERE IN THIS FINAL MONTH OF MAY. >> WELL FIRST OF ALL GOOD MORNING SEANA. GOOD MORNING BRAD. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS YOU DON'T KNOW IF SELL IN MAY WORKS UNTIL UNTIL JUNE RIGHT. I MEAN SELL IN APRIL DIDN'T WORK. WE KNOW THAT SELL IN EARLY MAY DIDN'T WORK. WE KIND OF KNOW THAT. BUT WE DON'T YET KNOW IF SELL IN MAY DIDN'T WORK. WE'RE COMING INTO THIS MONTH. WE'RE ENDING THIS MONTH, I SHOULD SAY, ON A VERY EXUBERANT NOTE, STOCK. YOU KNOW, BASICALLY, NO MATTER HOW YOU MEASURE IT, THERE'S VERY LITTLE FEAR AND A LOT OF GREED. THAT'S NOT NECESSARILY BAD. I'LL QUOTE GORDON GEKKO GREED CAN BE GOOD, BUT BUT YOU KNOW THAT THAT SORT OF DOES MAKE YOU WONDER, HAVE WE SEEN HAVE WE SEEN ALL THE GOOD NEWS, HOW MUCH OF IT IS PRICED IN AND HOW MUCH IS LEFT TO PRICE IN? >> AND SO WITH THAT IN MIND, I MEAN, HOW MUCH VOLATILITY SHOULD WE BE EXPECTING OFF OF AND COMING OFF OF THE MAY PERFORMANCE THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS FAR? >> YOU KNOW, IT'S TRICKY HERE BECAUSE THE VOLATILITY BECAUSE IF YOU MEASURE VOLATILITY BY VIX THERE'S VIX IS GETTING I HATE TO SAY IT I SOUND CONSPIRACIST BUT IT'S REALLY NOT THE CASE VIX IS GETTING SUPPRESSED BY HEAVY VOLATILITY. SELLING FROM FROM THE FROM THE NOW POPULAR ETFS THAT ROUTINELY SELL VOLATILITY COVERED CALL STRATEGIES COLLARS ETC. THAT DOES PUT A DAMPER ON VIX BECAUSE IF THERE'S IF THOSE FUNDS ARE ARE SYSTEMATICALLY SELLING VOLATILITY THAT'S THAT'S GOT TO GO SOMEWHERE. AND THAT'S GOING TO BE REFLECTED IN THE PRICE OF VOLATILITY INDICES LIKE VIX. BUT THAT'S WHAT THE MARKET'S THEORETICALLY IS THE BEST PREDICTION OF VOLATILITY OVER THE COMING 30 DAYS. THE MARKET IS NOT PREDICTING MUCH. THE MARKET CAN GET SURPRISED THOUGH. AND THAT'S ALWAYS THE RISK OF SELLING VIX WHEN YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT LOW LEVELS. YOU KNOW BELOW THE TEENS. THAT'S THE PROBLEM IS YOU MAKE VERY INCREMENTAL GAINS ON THAT. AND THEN ONE DAY THE YOU KNOW ONE DAY YOU FIND VIX IS YOU KNOW 20 OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. BECAUSE PEOPLE GET SPOOKED. YOU DON'T KNOW WHEN THAT HAPPENS THOUGH. THAT'S YOU KNOW THAT'S SORT OF THE MINEFIELD OF THE MARKETS. COULD BE SOME FED SPEAK COULD BE ANYTHING OR IT COULD BE NOTHING. AND THAT'S THAT'S REALLY THAT'S REALLY GOING TO BE THE TRICK GOING FORWARD. >> STEVE, I'M CURIOUS HOW YOU'VE BEEN LOOKING AT THE RECENT FED SPEAK THAT WE'VE GOTTEN OUT. EVEN KASHKARI THIS MORNING MAKING SOME INTERESTING COMMENTS JUST ABOUT THE FACT THAT HE NEEDS TO SEE A LOT MORE DATA WHEN IT COMES TO INFLATION WHEN IT COMES TO THOSE INFLATION PRINTS, JUST IN TERMS OF THAT STEADY IMPROVEMENT BEFORE HE FEELS COMFORTABLE WITH RATES BEING CUT. AND THEN HE ALSO ESSENTIALLY LEFT THE NOTION OR LEFT THE POSSIBILITY OF A POTENTIAL RATE HIKE ON THE TABLE GIVEN IF THAT WERE TO EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BE NECESSARY IN HIS MIND, HOW IS THE MARKET LOOKING AT THIS JUST IN TERMS OF SOME OF THAT VOLATILITY THAT THAT COULD ADD OR MAYBE SOME OF THAT SURPRISE ELEMENT THAT YOU WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT, THAT MAYBE ISN'T ALREADY PRICED IN AT THIS POINT. >> HERE'S THE PROBLEM. IS THE MARKET REALLY ONLY WANTS. THEY DON'T WANT TO HEAR FROM THE SUPPORTING CAST. THEY ONLY WANT TO HEAR FROM THE LEAD ACTOR AND THE AND THE DIFFERENCE IS POWELL ALWAYS SKEWS A DOVISH I GUESS IS REALLY THE RIGHT WORD. POWELL TENDS TO SKEW DOVISH. YOU THINK ABOUT HIS PRESS CONFERENCES. YOU KNOW HE'S THE EVEN THOUGH HE'S NOT AN ECONOMIST. EVEN IF HE'S GOT BAD NEWS HE'LL TEMPER IT WITH SOME SORT OF DECENT SOUNDING OUT. THE OTHERS BASICALLY COME BACK COME OUT AND TELL YOU WHAT THEY SEE IS GOING TO HAPPEN. THIS IS NOT NEW. MESTER HAS BEEN SAYING NEGATIVE THINGS. BOSTIC HAS BEEN SORT OF HINTING AT AT NO RATE CUTS HIGHER. THERE'S A WHOLE THERE'S A WHOLE LITANY OF THEM. BUT UNTIL YOU HEAR IT FROM POWELL, YOU KNOW, THE MARKET GOT A LITTLE SPOOKED WHEN THEY READ IT IN THE MINUTES BECAUSE, OKAY, IT MADE IT TO THE MINUTES. BUT UNTIL, YOU KNOW, I THINK THE MARKET IS JUST SORT OF IGNORING THE, THE, THE OTHER THE OTHER PEOPLE, EVEN THOUGH THEY'RE SENDING A VERY CONSISTENT MESSAGE AND EVEN THOUGH SOMEHOW THE FED SEEMS TO BE UNANIMOUS IN ALL ITS DECISIONS. BUT AGAIN, THEY LIKE THEY THEY WANT TO HEAR FROM POWELL, NOT SO MUCH THE OTHERS, DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE OTHERS HAVE A LOT TO SAY. THAT'S VERY INTERESTING. >> IF THE MARKETS CONTINUE TO HEAR HIGHER FOR LONGER FROM A RANGE OF FED SPEAKERS OR FROM THE LEAD ACTOR, AS YOU MENTIONED, THEN THAT CAN KIND OF SIDELINE THE EFFECT TO WHICH THE FED HAS ON THE MARKETS AND THE MARKETS. PERHAPS HANG THEIR HAT ON SOMETHING ELSE. I MEAN, FOR A WHILE IT'S BEEN AN NVIDIA AND THE BROADER KIND OF THEMATIC TRADE OF I HOW LONG CAN THAT STILL BE THE CASE? >> WELL, THE NVIDIA TRADE CAN BE CAN LAST A LONG TIME. I WROTE A PIECE, YOU KNOW, THAT NVIDIA IS THE ATLAS HOLDING UP THE MARKET TO SOME EXTENT. AND YOU KNOW WHAT I CAN'T I CAN'T GET IN THE WAY OF THIS STOCK IT YOU KNOW I CAN'T THINK OF A STOCK THAT HAS BEEN SO REMOVED CONSISTENT AT BEATING ESTIMATES, RAISING ESTIMATES, BEATING THEM AGAIN, RAISING THEM AGAIN. YOU KNOW, RINSE REPEAT. AND THIS IS YOU KNOW, IF I SHUDDER TO THINK WHAT THE MARKETS WOULD DO IF NVIDIA STUMBLED THAT THAT'S WHY THAT'S WHY I SAY IT'S SORT OF, YOU KNOW, YOU KNOW, IF ATLAS SHRUGGED, SO TO SPEAK, BUT YOU KNOW THAT THAT CAN OVERWEIGH IT THE OTHER THING TO THINK ABOUT IS WE'VE MANAGED TO GO FROM PRICING IN SEVEN RATE 6 TO 7 RATE CUTS TO NOW 1 TO 2 FOR THIS YEAR. THE REASON WE GOT AWAY WITH THIS IS IT'S BECAUSE THE ECONOMY IS DOING OKAY. YOU KNOW ULTIMATELY THE MARKET'S NOT REALLY ABOUT THE FED. IT'S ABOUT EARNINGS. IT'S ABOUT COMPANIES MAKING MONEY. IT'S ABOUT THEM BEING ABLE TO GROW AND RETURN MONEY TO SHAREHOLDERS. ALL THOSE NICE THINGS. AND YOU KNOW WHAT A RATE CUT A RATE CUT IS HELPFUL. BUT REALLY WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE IF THE COMPANIES AREN'T MAKING MONEY. SO BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR. WE DON'T WANT NECESSARILY A WEAK ECONOMY THAT WILL BRING US RATE CUTS. I'M FINE AND I'VE BEEN SAYING THIS ALL YEAR I'M QUITE OKAY WITH HAVING A STRONG ECONOMY THAT DOESN'T BRING US RATE CUTS. IF IT BRINGS US EARNINGS AND CASH FLOWS. >> STEVE, I WANT TO TURN THE CONVERSATION A LITTLE BIT HERE AND WE TALK ABOUT EVERYTHING THAT'S GOING ON IN THE MARKET. ONE OF THE SIDESHOWS THAT WE HAVE BEEN PAYING AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT MORE ATTENTION TO IN THE RECENT WEEKS OR RECENT WEEK AND A HALF, I GUESS WE WANT TO SAY IS THE RISE IN THE MEME STOCKS. AND I KNOW YOU HAVE TO AND YOU LAUGH RIGHT NOW, PUT YOUR HANDS UP ON YOUR HEAD. BUT IT IS WORTH BRINGING UP JUST IN TERMS OF THE DRAMATIC MOVES THAT WE HAVE SEEN, ESPECIALLY IN CONTEXT OR COMPARING IT. THIS TO WHAT WE SAW IN THE DIFFERENCES FROM 2021. BUT WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THIS EXCITEMENT THAT WE HAVE SEEN PLAY OUT IN THE MEME, STOCKS, HOW ARE YOU LOOKING AT THAT? AND I GUESS JUST IN TERMS OF WHAT UNDERNEATH ALL THOSE HEADLINES, WHAT IS DIRECTLY TELLING YOU ABOUT INVESTOR SENTIMENT AT THIS POINT? >> IF ANYTHING, THIS ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN. IF INVESTORS AREN'T FEELING CONFIDENT, IF NOT FROTHY. I MEAN, THIS TO ME IS, YOU KNOW, THIS TO ME IS NOT A SIGN OF MARKET OF THAT NERVES ARE ANYWHERE THAT IF YOU'RE WILLING TO BASICALLY GO ALL IN ON A SET OF COMPANIES THAT DON'T MAKE MONEY AND THAT NEED TO CONTINUALLY SELL STOCK INTO THESE PERIODIC RISES TO BASICALLY DIG THEMSELVES OUT OF DEBT HOLES. THAT'S NOT REALLY YOU KNOW, THAT'S NOT REALLY INVESTING IN THE SENSE THAT I JUST REFERRED TO IT. YOU KNOW, THE STRONG ECONOMY, THE CASH FLOWS, ETC. I MEAN, THE FACT THAT IN GAMESTOP IS UP ABOUT 20 SOME ODD PERCENT THIS MORNING BECAUSE THEY'RE SELLING THEY SOLD ALMOST $1 BILLION WORTH OF STOCK. IF THIS WERE A NORMAL COMPANY, PEOPLE WOULD BE A LITTLE BIT FREAKED OUT BECAUSE YOU DON'T SELL STOCK INTO A INTO THE MARKET. IF YOU THINK YOUR STOCK IS UNDERVALUED, YOU DO IT WHEN YOU THINK YOUR STOCK IS OVERVALUED. BUT IN IN THE UPSIDE DOWN WORLD OF MEME STOCKS, THAT'S THAT'S GOOD NEWS BECAUSE IT ALLOWS THEM TO, YOU KNOW, REDUCE THEIR DEBT LOADS. THESE COMPANIES DON'T MAKE MONEY CONSISTENTLY. AND SO THEY'RE OVERVALUED AT NORMAL PRICES. THE COMPANIES TELLING YOU THAT. BUT THE INVESTORS ARE SAYING WE DON'T MIND GETTING DILUTED LIKE CRAZY BY THE COMPANY SELLING ALL THIS STOCK BECAUSE IT GIVES THEM A FINANCIAL LIFELINE. IT'S WEIRD, BUT ULTIMATELY THIS WOULDN'T BE GOING ON IF INVESTORS WEREN'T, SHALL WE SAY, EXUBERANT, FROTHY. I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE RIGHT ADJECTIVE IS. >> YEAH. THERE'S A TON OF THEM YOU COULD THROW OUT THERE. STEVE STASNY STEVE STYLES, WHO IS THE INTERACTIVE BROKERS CHIEF STRATEGIST STEVE, GREAT TO SEE YOU HERE. >> GREAT TO SEE YOU TOO. >> THANKS. WELL, WE WERE TALKING ABOUT GAMESTOP. GAMESTOP SHARES. THEY ARE SURGING THIS MORNING UP BY ABOUT 26. THIS MOVE COMES AFTER THE VIDEO GAME RETAILER ANNOUNCED FRIDAY THAT IT MADE $933 MILLION FROM SELLING 45 MILLION COMMON SHARES. YAHOO FINANCE SENIOR REPORTER INEZ FOR STANDING BY IN THE NEWSROOM WITH MORE ON G M E INEZ. WHAT DO WE KNOW? >> YEAH, BRAD AND GAMESTOP TOOK ADVANTAGE OF THE SHORT LIVED MEME RALLY IN MID-MAY BY SELLING, AS YOU JUST MENTIONED, 45 MILLION SHARES TO BRING IN ALMOST $1 BILLION, ACCORDING TO A FRIDAY STATEMENT. THE SHARE SALE IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE VIDEO GAME RETAILER HAS STRUGGLED AS A BUSINESS IN RECENT YEARS. NOW, GAMESTOP SAID IT INTENDS TO USE THE NET PROCEEDS OF THE SHARE SALE FOR GENERAL CORPORATE PURPOSES, WHICH MAY INCLUDE ACQUISITIONS AND INVESTMENTS. THE OFFERING WAS FIRST ANNOUNCED ON MAY 17TH, ALONG WITH THE RELEASE OF THEIR PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL RESULTS, SENDING SHARES TANKING AS MUCH AS 30% THAT DAY. THE COMPANY REVEALED SALES FELL SHARPLY FROM THE YEAR PRIOR IN ITS MOST RECENT QUARTER. NOW AT THE SAME TIME OF THE SHARE SALE ANNOUNCEMENT, WEDBUSH, MANAGING DIRECTOR MICHAEL PACKER THAT DAY SAID THAT HE DOESN'T SEE SIGNS THAT THE BUSINESS IS TURNING AROUND. HE TOLD YAHOO FINANCE YOU DEFINITELY HAVE TO GIVE GAMESTOP CREDIT FOR CAPITALIZING ON THE OPPORTUNITY TO BUILD THEIR WAR CHEST. AT LEAST THEY'LL RAISE ENOUGH CASH TO LAST THEM ANOTHER 3 OR 4 YEARS IF THEY, IN FACT CONTINUE TO FAIL AND TRY TO FIND A NEW STRATEGY. GAMESTOP SOARED OVER A TWO DAY SPAN, WHICH STARTED ON MAY 13TH AFTER THE ONLINE REEMERGENCE OF ROARING KITTY. THAT'S THE PERSON WHO IS SEEN AS THE MAIN KICK STARTER OF THE MEME STOCK FRENZY IN 2021. THE STOCK IS SET TO GAIN ABOUT 26% AT THE OPEN TO TOUCH THE $24 LEVEL. NOW, SHARES ARE STILL MORE THAN HALF OFF THE ALMOST $65 LEVEL REACHED EARLIER THIS MONTH. GUYS. >> ALL RIGHT. THANKS SO MUCH FOR BRINGING THOSE MOVES DOWN FOR US HERE. LET'S TALK ABOUT ANOTHER MOVER HERE IN YAHOO FINANCE THIS MORNING. AND THAT IS APPLE CHINESE CONSUMERS HAVEN'T GIVEN UP MAYBE ON THE BIG TECH GIANTS JUST YET IPHONE SHIPMENTS RISING 52% IN APRIL, A SIGNIFICANT JUMP FROM JUST A 12% CLIMB THAT THEY SAW IN MARCH. THIS, AFTER A FLURRY OF DISCOUNTS COMING FROM ITS RETAIL PARTNERS IN THE COUNTRY AND AN ATTEMPT TO COMPETE WITH SOME OF THOSE DOMESTIC PLAYERS, SPECIFICALLY HUAWEI, AND SOME OF THE EXCITEMENT WE'VE SEEN AROUND THOSE NEW PRODUCT SALES MAY SEE ANOTHER BOOST THIS MONTH. APPLE LAUNCHING MORE DISCOUNTS, HOPING THAT THAT IS GOING TO BE ENOUGH HERE TO LURE SOME BUYERS IN. NOW THIS IS JUST EARLY DATA HERE. CLEARLY THESE NUMBERS ARE NOT OUT FROM APPLE. SO WE WILL SEE EXACTLY WHAT THE DEMAND LOOKS LIKE INSIDE CHINA WHEN WE GET THAT NEXT REPORT HERE IN JUST A COUPLE OF MONTHS EARNINGS REPORT AND A COUPLE OF MONTHS. WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THESE NUMBERS COMING OUT, IT'S IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT, GIVEN THE FACT THAT APPLE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING IN CHINA, YOU TALK ABOUT THE RISE OF DOMESTIC PLAYERS. YOU TALK ABOUT MAYBE SOME OF THE BACKLASH HERE, JUST IN TERMS OF THE GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA CLEARLY PLAYING A ROLE HERE. BUT THEY HAVE ANNOUNCED NEW PRICE CUTS. IT'S DOUBLED THE SIZE OF THE DISCOUNT THAT WAS OFFERED BACK IN FEBRUARY. SO APPLE AT LEAST HOPING THAT SOME OF THESE DISCOUNTS, SOME OF THESE INCENTIVES IS ENOUGH TO LURE BUYERS IN AND HAVE THEM BE BUYING IPHONE, THE IPHONE INSTEAD OF SOME OF THOSE DOMESTIC PRODUCTS THAT WE HAVE SEEN PICKUP IN POPULARITY. WELL IT'S COMING OFF OF A YEAR OR TWO WHERE THEY HAD SEEN SUCCESS IN 2023, GETTING TO JUST UNDER 20% OF THE GLOBAL SMARTPHONE MARKET SHARE, AND ULTIMATELY LOOKING ACROSS THE NUMBER OF OS USERS WHO IT'S BENEFICIAL FOR THEM TO CONTINUE TO SELL INTO THAT ECOSYSTEM. >> TO PUT SOME NUMBERS ON WHAT WE'RE EXPECTING GOING FORWARD FROM HERE. AND YOU THINK ABOUT THE NEW IPHONE 16 LINEUP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ANNOUNCED LATER ON THIS YEAR, AS WE'RE KIND OF LOOKING FOR THAT NEXT CYCLE THAT GETS AND REALLY KIND OF HAS BEEN FRAGMENTED DEPENDING UPON THE REGIONS OF THE WORLD THAT YOU'RE LOOKING ACROSS FOR APPLE. BUT SPECIFICALLY HERE, THE IPHONE 16 FAMILY, THAT COULD BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL KIND OF COMPETITIVE, YOU KNOW, INFLECTION POINT. IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT HUAWEI IS DOING AND THE MATE 70 LINEUP AS WELL, THAT POTENTIALLY COMING IN OCTOBER, THAT WOULD KEEP SOME CONSUMERS OUT THERE, SOME POTENTIAL BUYERS OF THESE NEW SMARTPHONES, WHICH ULTIMATELY THEY'RE LOOKING FOR THESE TO COME IN IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 790 USD WOULD BE THE EQUIVALENT THERE. AND ULTIMATELY 33% RIGHT NOW, ONLY OWN OR OWN A PREMIUM PHONE. SO ALL OF THAT CONSIDERED IT'S GOING TO BE THE PRICING ON TOP OF WHAT THE NEW FEATURES ARE THAT COME THROUGH THAT IPHONE 16 FAMILY. AND THEN JUST AS I WAS TEASING THE NUMBER A MOMENT AGO, IPHONE SMART OR CHINA SMARTPHONE SHIPMENTS ACTUALLY GREW 6.5% YEAR OVER YEAR IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR. BUT IT WAS AN APPLE THAT WAS LEADING THAT CHARGE. AND SO NOW IT'S BOTH AS WE WERE MENTIONING, THE NEW LINEUP THAT IS SET TO BE UNVEILED AND PRICING THAT COULD REALLY BE THE BANG BANG PLAY FOR THEM. WE'LL SEE HOW THAT GETS RECEIVED IN MARKET THERE TOO. WE'RE ALSO JUST GETTING STARTED ON THE MORNING BRIEF COMING UP SHARES OF NVIDIA MOVING TO THE UPSIDE THIS MORNING, GETTING A BOOST FROM ELON MUSK'S A.I. PLANS POTENTIALLY. WE'LL EXPLAIN AFTER THE BREAK. YOU'RE WATCHING THE MORNING BRIEF BROUGHT TO YOU BY INVESCO. WELCOME BACK. YOU'RE WATCHING THE MORNING BRIEF. BROUGHT TO YOU BY INVESCO. LET'S GET TO SOME TRENDING TICKERS THAT WE'RE WATCHING THIS MORNING. NVIDIA SHARES ARE MOVING LOWER OR MOVING HIGHER. EXCUSE ME BY 3% THIS MORNING AFTER TESLA CEO ELON MUSK TOLD INVESTORS THAT HIS A.I. STARTUP WILL BE WORKING ON BUILDING A SUPERCOMPUTER THAT WILL POWER THE NEXT VERSION OF ITS AI CHATBOT. NOW, REPORTEDLY, THE SUPERCOMPUTER WOULD BE POWERED BY NVIDIA'S AI CHIPS. YOU'RE TAKING A LOOK AT SHARES OF NVIDIA HIGHER BY ABOUT 3.2% PREMARKET HERE. THIS WOULD BE A HUGE DEAL AS JUST ANOTHER MASSIVE ORDER FOR NVIDIA, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, IT'S ALSO A MASSIVE DEAL FOR ZCI $6 BILLION IN A RAISE. THERE IT IS. >> AND IT KIND OF GOES AROUND THE EXCITEMENT SURROUNDING AI. WHY SO MANY PEOPLE ON THE STREET WHEN IT COMES TO STRATEGISTS, WHEN IT COMES TO ANALYSTS HERE COVERING THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR AND SPECIFICALLY SOME OF THESE CHIP NAMES VERY CLOSELY, SAYING THAT THIS AI RALLY STILL HAS ROOM TO RUN. WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THAT GROWTH, TALK ABOUT THE APPETITE, THE INVESTMENT PLANS THAT WE'RE HEARING FROM CEOS, FROM EXECUTIVES ACROSS THE BOARD, JUST IN TERMS OF WHERE THEY ARE PRIORITIZING THEIR INVESTMENTS, A LOT OF THAT HAVING TO DO WITH AI. BUT WHEN IT COMES TO THIS STORY SPECIFICALLY RIGHT NOW, WE KNOW THAT ZEI HAS PARTNERED WITH ORACLE FOR ACCESS TO DATA CENTERS AND COMPUTING CHIPS, AND ORACLE JUST RECENTLY HAD SIGNED A NEW CLOUD COMPUTING INFRASTRUCTURE DEAL WITH NVIDIA, SAYING THAT IT PLANS TO BOOST CAPITAL SPENDING IN THE NEXT FISCAL YEAR. SO WHEN YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SOME OF THE GAINS THAT WE'VE SEEN IN THOSE CHIP MAKERS, AMD, INTEL, ALL MOVING TO THE UPSIDE HERE. SO AGAIN, THAT EXCITEMENT SURROUNDING NVIDIA SURROUNDING THE LEADERS WITHIN THAT SPACE SPILLING OVER. NOW TO SOME OF THOSE OTHER LARGE PLAYERS. THAT'S A STORY THAT WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT NOW FOR QUITE SOME TIME. BUT WHEN IT COMES TO SOME OF THOSE COMPETITORS, I GUESS NOT SO MUCH CLOSING IN ON NVIDIA, BUT ALSO ABLE TO PARTICIPATE AND CAPTURE SOME OF THAT CAPITAL EXPENDITURES THAT WE ARE SEEING FROM A LARGER CORPORATIONS IN TERMS OF THEIR AI INVESTMENT PLANS. WE ARE SEEING THEM SOME OF THESE OTHER PLAYERS THAT YOU SEE ON YOUR SCREEN THERE, INTEL, MICRON, QUALCOMM BECOMING A BIGGER PART OF THIS AI STORY. WE ARE SEEING THAT EXCITEMENT PLAY OUT WITHIN THOSE STOCKS. AND AS A RESULT YOU'RE SEEING GAINS ALMOST ACROSS THE BOARD FOR A LOT OF THESE LARGER CAP CHIP NAMES. >> MAYBE WHY JENSEN HUANG WAS SO POSITIVE IN HIS COMMENTARY ABOUT TESLA OR AND ELON MUSK, WHILE THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT EARNINGS LAST WEEK, I WOULD MAKE A LOT OF SENSE. >> ALL RIGHT. LET'S TALK ABOUT T-MOBILE ANNOUNCING THAT IT PLANS TO ACQUIRE MOST OF US CELLULAR IN A DEAL WORTH $4.4 BILLION, A COMPANY SAYING THAT IT WILL USE U.S. CELLULAR WIRELESS SPECTRUM TO IMPROVE COVERAGE IN RURAL AREAS AND ALSO OFFER BETTER CONNECTIVITY TO U.S. CUSTOMERS. SHARES OF U.S. CELLULAR CELLULAR ARE JUMPING TO NO SURPRISE. THIS MORNING. YOU ARE SEEING T-MOBILE UNDER A BIT OF PRESSURE. NOT EXACTLY ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY WHEN IT COMES TO THESE TYPES OF DEALS AND THE AND THE LIKELY STOCK REACTION THAT YOU WOULD SEE ON THE HEELS OF AN ANNOUNCEMENT LIKE THIS. BUT WHY THEY ARE DOING THIS? IT'S LIKE WE JUST SAID, IT'S BECAUSE OF THAT IMPROVED COVERAGE IN RURAL AREAS WHEN IT COMES TO WHAT EXACTLY THIS DEAL IS ALSO GOING TO INCLUDE AS WELL, U.S. CELLULAR IS GOING TO RETAIN SOME OF ITS WIRELESS SPECTRUM AND TOWERS, AND WILL LEASE SPACE ON AT LEAST 2100 ADDITIONAL TOWERS TO TWO T-MOBILE. IT'S ALSO GOING TO ALLOW U.S. CELLULAR CUSTOMERS TO KEEP THEIR CURRENT PLANS, OR THEY ALSO HAVE THE OPTION TO SWITCH TO T-MOBILE PLAN. SO AGAIN, T-MOBILE DOING EVERYTHING IT CAN TO BETTER COMPETE WITH AT&T WITH VERIZON. SO MAKING THIS DEAL IN ORDER TO BETTER IMPROVE SOME OF THEIR COVERAGE THAT THEY HAVEN'T HAD THE BEST TRACK OR TRACK RECORD WITH, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THAT. THOSE RURAL AREAS. >> YEAH, I THINK THIS IS INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT FOR U.S. CELLULAR TO AND THE COMPANY KIND OF ACKNOWLEDGED THIS IN THEIR OWN PRESS RELEASE THAT THEY PUT OUT WHERE YOU HAD LEROY CARLSON JR, WHO'S THE CHAIR OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS FOR U.S. CELLULAR, ESSENTIALLY SAYING IN THE FACE OF RISING COMPETITION, INCREASING CAPITAL INTENSITY REQUIRED TO KEEP PACE WITH THE LATEST TECHNOLOGIES AND FOLLOWING THEIR CAREFUL AND DELIBERATE, DELIBERATE STRATEGIC REVIEW, EXCUSE ME, THEIR CONFIDENCE THAT CONTINUING TO DELIVER ON THAT MISSION REQUIRED THE LEVEL OF SCALE THAT A COMPANY LIKE T MOBILE COULD PROVIDE HERE. AND SO ULTIMATELY, SOME OF THE LOWER PRICES, HIGH QUALITY SERVICES IS WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO TRY AND SELL TO SOME OF THE EXISTING CUSTOMERS AND POTENTIAL NEW CUSTOMERS. BUT THEY WERE NOT HAPPY THAT T-MOBILE ALSO KIND OF SHARES THAT COMMITMENT. AND ADDRESSING WHAT THE NEEDS ARE OF SOME OF THE RURAL AMERICANS OUT THERE. BUT THIS IS SIGNIFICANT IN THE BROADER MINDSET OF THE ACQUISITIVE MINDSET OR THE ACQUISITIVE NATURE THAT SOME OF THESE BUSINESSES HAVE NAVIGATED OVER THE PAST FEW DECADES. HERE IN SPECIFICALLY, YOU THINK BACK TO THE BROADER MERGER BETWEEN T-MOBILE AND SPRINT THAT HAD TO TAKE PLACE TO MAKE THEM MORE COMPETITIVE AS WELL. AND SO NOW T-MOBILE SPECIFICALLY GOING AFTER U.S. CELLULAR AND FOR U.S. CELLULAR, THIS IS A MASSIVE LIFELINE FOR THEM TO CERTAINLY. >> LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT TWO OTHER MOVERS HERE THIS MORNING, AND THAT IS DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL OWNER FLUTTER ENTERTAINMENT, BOTH UNDER PRESSURE HERE AFTER THE ILLINOIS SENATE PASSED A BILL THAT INCLUDES A SPORTS BETTING TAX HIKE. NOW, THIS NEW HIKE WOULD MAKE ILLINOIS THE SECOND MOST EXPENSIVE STATE FOR ONLINE SPORTS GAMBLING COMPANIES TO OPERATE IN, ONLY BEHIND NEW YORK. YOU ARE SEEING SOME PRESSURE ON BOTH OF THOSE STOCKS. SO WHY, IF THIS IS JUST SPECIFIC TO ILLINOIS? WELL, THE THOUGHT HERE FROM ANALYSTS IS THAT THE POTENTIAL HERE FOR OTHER STATES TO FOLLOW SUIT, TO FOLLOW SUIT, THAT IS REALLY THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF ANALYSTS OF INVESTORS HERE AT THIS POINT. NOW, WHAT EXACTLY IS IN THE DETAILS OF THIS NEW TAX AND WHY THERE IS SO MUCH FEAR OR SO MUCH CONCERN SURROUNDING THIS? OPERATORS WOULD NOW BE LIABLE FOR INCREASING THE TAX RATE BASED ON ADJUSTED GROSS REVENUE. SO PAYING BETWEEN 20 ALL THE WAY UP TO 40% BASED ON REVENUE THRESHOLDS. NOW THAT WOULD BE UP FROM A CURRENT 15% RATE HERE. SO AGAIN, A MASSIVE JUMP. AND IT'S ALSO IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT THIS IS AN IDEA THAT HAD BEEN FLOATED BY THE GOVERNOR OF ILLINOIS IN THE PAST. HE WAS TALKING ABOUT RAISING THE EFFECTIVE TAX RATE UP TO JUST AROUND 35% INCREASE TO 35. SO NOW THIS RATE BEING PUSHED UP AGAIN IN THE SENATE VERSION OF THE BUDGET TO A MAXIMUM OF 40, ILLINOIS NOW WILL BE THE FIRST STATE TO HAVE AN ENTIRELY PROGRESSIVE SPORTS BETTING TAX RATE. >> YEAH, THIS IS CRITICAL, ESPECIALLY THINKING ABOUT THE COST STRUCTURE THAT THESE COMPANIES ARE ALREADY NAVIGATING THROUGH. AND BOTH THE CUSTOMER ACQUISITION COSTS FOR NEW STATES THAT THEY'RE HOPING TO BE BROUGHT ONLINE, AND ULTIMATELY, HOW THOSE NEW STATES PERHAPS ALSO LOOK AT WHAT'S TAKING PLACE IN ILLINOIS AND SAY, OKAY, WE'LL ALLOW THIS TO GO FORWARD. OR IF THE VOTERS VOTE FOR THIS, SURE, WE'LL MAKE WAY FOR IT. BUT ALSO, WHAT IS THE TAX RATE THAT THESE COMPANIES ARE ALREADY SEEING IN OTHER STATES WHERE THEY KNOW THERE ARE A LOT OF SPORTS CLIENTELE? I MEAN, LOOK, I'M JUST GOING TO GIVE IT TO ILLINOIS HEAVY, HEAVY SPORTS CULTURE THERE, JUST LIKE WE HAVE IN PENNSYLVANIA GROWING UP. BUT ANYWAY, ALL THESE OTHER THINGS CONSIDERED THAT IS GOING TO BE WHERE WE'RE BETTING IS ON THE BALLOT. SOME OF THOSE LEGISLATORS AND OFFICIALS WHO ARE VOTED INTO OFFICE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO THINK ABOUT, OKAY, WHAT'S THE EFFECTIVE TAX RATE THAT WE ALSO PUT ON TOP OF THIS TO MAKE SURE THAT WE ARE GETTING THE REVENUES FROM THIS AS WELL. YEAH. >> SO CERTAINLY A STORY THAT COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP HERE, AS WE COULD SEE OTHER STATES ADOPT A SIMILAR SORT OF THINKING LINE OF THINKING IN TERMS OF INCREASING THAT TAX RATE. ALL RIGHT. WELL I'LL KEEP IT RIGHT HERE ON YAHOO FINANCE. WE GOT MUCH MORE OF YOUR MARKET ACTION AHEAD. STAY TUNED. YOU'RE WATCHING MORNING BRIEF. >> THAT'S THE OPENING BELL. YOU'RE WATCHING THE MORNING BRIEF. BROUGHT TO YOU BY INVESCO. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT BOTH OF THESE. BELL RINGERS. WE GOT TROY PRICE AND ACTIVE ETFS RINGING THE OPENING BELL AT THE NYSE. AND OVER AT THE NASDAQ, YOU GOT ASIANS AT MICROSOFT. ONE OF THE EMPLOYEE RESOURCE GROUPS OVER THERE CELEBRATING ASIAN PACIFIC HERITAGE MONTH WE BELIEVE. ALL RIGHT. EXCELLENT GROUPS. >> SO THERE WE GO. KICKING OFF A NEW TRADING WEEK HERE. THE LAST TRADING WEEK OF MAY. WE CERTAINLY HAVE SEEN A SIGNIFICANT GAIN SINCE THE START OF THE MONTH. SO WE'LL SEE HOW WE END UP THIS WEEK. BUT AS WE KD PICTURE HERE AT LEAST FOR THE DOW OPENING THE WEEK TO THE DOWNSIDE HERE OFF JUST ABOUT A HUNDRED POINTS. WE TAKE A LOOK AT THE S&P MOVING JUST TO THE UPSIDE PUSHING FURTHER ABOVE 5300. WE'RE WAITING FOR THE NASDAQ HERE TO CALIBRATE. BUT LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE SECTOR ACTION. WHAT WE'RE SEEING PLAY OUT THERE A BIT OF A MIXED PICTURE AT LEAST ON AN INTRADAY BASIS WHEN IT COMES TO THAT SECTOR ACTION. WE'VE GOT REAL ESTATE INTERESTING AND TECHNOLOGY LEADING THE WAY ALONG WITH ENERGY. AND THE FLIP SIDE, YOU'VE GOT HEALTH CARE, YOU'VE GOT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND YOU'VE ALSO GOT CONSUMER STAPLES. AMONG THE WORST PERFORMERS HERE THIS MORNING. >> THAT'S SHADE TO THE REAL ESTATE I MEAN IT IS YOU DON'T SEE IT TOO OFTEN. >> THESE NAMES. BUT AGAIN WE HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN A SHIFT HERE AND NOW. YEAH NOT BAD. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE ENERGY SECTOR. >> SO HAVING MOVED REAL QUICK IT MOVES DRAMATICALLY RIGHT AT THE OPENING BELL. >> LOTS OF THINGS ARE HAPPENING. YOU CAN SEE IT UP JUST AROUND 410% YEAR TO DATE THOUGH CLEARLY IT'S BEEN IN THE RED. ALL RIGHT LET'S GET OVER TO YAHOO FINANCE'S JARED BLIKRE FOR A CLOSER LOOK AT SOME OF THIS MOVEMENT THAT WE'RE SEEING HERE JARED. >> YEAH SEANA IT'S BEEN AN INTERESTING FEW WEEKS FOR THE MARKET. SO LAST WEEK S&P 500 AND THE NASDAQ NOTCHED THEIR FIFTH CONSECUTIVE WEEKLY GAIN. BUT THE DOW DROPPED A LITTLE BIT. AND I'M GOING TO SHIFT OVER TO THE TO THE DOW HERE. WE SAW A NUMBER OF LOSSES LAST WEEK. AND IT WASN'T JUST LIMITED TO BOEING JOHNSON AND JOHNSON WAS DOWN MCDONNELL INTEL AMGEN CATERPILLAR. SO SOMETHING INSIDE THE DOW THE INDUSTRIAL TRADE HAD HAD BEEN FALTERING. WE'LL SEE IF WE CAN REIGNITE THIS WEEK. AND LIKE I SAID IT WAS A GOOD WEEK FOR TECH LAST WEEK. AND LET'S FIGURE OUT WHAT WE'RE DOING TODAY. THERE WE GO. LET'S SEE I GOT A NEW TABLET HERE ANYWAY. UTILITIES IS UP ABOUT 2/10 OF A PERCENT. JUST WANTED TO SPEND A QUICK MINUTE ON THAT. IT'S HEADING FOR ITS BEST MONTH IN A COUPLE OF YEARS HERE. HERE'S THE YEAR TO DATE ON THAT. AND WE'VE SEEN UTILITIES NOW KIND OF CARRY THE FLAG FOR AI. AND UNLIKELY AI TRADE. BUT THERE YOU GO. NEVERTHELESS, YOU NEED A LOT OF ELECTRICITY TO RUN THESE THINGS. I ALSO WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT COMMUNICATION SERVICES BECAUSE COMMUNICATION SERVICES ARE XLC RIGHT BACK UP TO ITS PANDEMIC HIGH. AND YOU CAN SEE THAT ON THE FIVE YEAR CHART RIGHT HERE, MAKING THIS GIANT V OR GIANT YOU SOMETIMES WHEN YOU SEE THIS CONFIGURATION, YOU DO GET A BIT OF CONSOLIDATION BEFORE LIFTOFF. AND IT DOESN'T HAVE TO LIFT OFF. BUT THIS IS A VERY LONG TERM PATTERN. SO I WOULD EXPECT SOME MOMENTUM OFF OF THAT. SHOULD WE PROCEED TO THE UPSIDE. AND SOME OF THE BIGGEST DRIVERS ARE ALPHABET AND META. AND WITH THAT LET'S TAKE A QUICK LOOK OF THE NASDAQ 100. AND HERE WE SEE NVIDIA UP 4. THAT'S PROBABLY THE BIGGEST GAINER HERE. LOOKS LIKE MICRON AND OTHER CHIP STOCK UP 2. AND NOT SEEING A LOT OF BIG WEAKNESS. ALTHOUGH TESLA DOWN 2.5. KIND OF A MIXED BOARD HERE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF ACTION FAVORING THE BEARS TO START THE WEEK. ALL RIGHT JARED THANKS SO MUCH. >> A LOT OF HEAT ON THAT HEAT MAP. ALL RIGHT. APPRECIATE IT. TREASURY YIELDS MOVING LOWER AHEAD OF A FRESH READING ON CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND KEY INFLATION REPORTS LATER THIS WEEK. INVESTORS ARE EAGER TO GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING ON WHERE THE FED STANDS AFTER MEETING. AFTER THE MEETING MINUTES FROM THE FOMC'S LATEST MEETING SHOWED UNCERTAINTY OVER WHEN RATE CUTS MIGHT TAKE PLACE. APRIL'S PERSONAL INCOME AND EXPENDITURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOCK IN AT AN ANNUAL GAIN OF 2.8. THAT'S FLAT FROM MARCH'S INCREASE. FOR MORE, WE'RE JOINED BY MICHAEL GAUSS, WHO IS THE PRINCIPAL ASSET MANAGEMENT CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF GLOBAL FIXED INCOME HERE. THANKS SO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME HERE WITH US THIS MORNING. OKAY SO WE GOT SOME FED SPEAK. WE'VE GOT SOME DATA THAT WE'RE GOING TO GET OVER THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK. DOES ANY OF THIS CHANGE WHAT WE SEE AT THE NEXT MEETINGS. AND ULTIMATELY THE PATHWAY FOR RATE CUTS THAT EVERYONE IS SO MUCH BEEN ANTICIPATING COMING INTO THE START OF THIS YEAR? BUT AT THIS POINT, SEEMS LIKE WE'RE GOING TO GET FEWER THAN EXPECTED. YEAH >> GOOD MORNING AND THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME ON TODAY. YOU KNOW, CERTAINLY THE DATA HAS BROUGHT INTO QUESTION THE AMOUNT AND THE TIMING OF WHEN THE WHETHER THE FED IS GOING TO CUT POLICY RATES OR NOT, THE ECONOMY'S REMAINED RELATIVELY ROBUST, INFLATION HAS BEEN MAYBE A BIT STICKIER THAN WHAT SOME HAD HOPED FOR, CERTAINLY THAT'S BEEN PLAYED OUT IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS. BUT OVERALL WE'VE SEEN A MATERIAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE INFLATION PICTURE. AND THE ECONOMY, AS I SAID, REMAINS PRETTY HEALTHY. THAT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN THE FED IS GOING TO BE CUTTING RATES IMMINENTLY, BUT IT'S CERTAINLY COULD IMAGINE THAT GIVEN THE PROGRESS WE'VE MADE ON INFLATION POST COVID, POST THE NORMALIZATION OF SOME OF THE, SOME, SOME OF THE QUANTITATIVE COMPONENTS OF THE WAY THAT THE FED CONDUCTS MONETARY POLICY THAT THEY COULD BE MOVING ON POLICY AS SOON AS SEPTEMBER. IT COULD TAKE SOME MORE, IMPROVEMENT IN SOME INFLATION DATA. BUT OVERALL, THAT WHAT WE'VE SEEN TO DATE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THEM TO START CUTTING RATES AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER. >> MICHAEL, WHAT ARE SOME OF THE FUND FLOWS THAT YOU HAVE NOTICED SPECIFICALLY WITHIN FIXED INCOME AND THIS REALLOCATION THAT WE'VE SEEN FROM THE SHORT DURATION INTO MORE LONGER TERM DURATION, AND WHETHER OR NOT YOU THINK THAT TREND HAS LEGS HERE, GIVEN WHAT YOU JUST SAID. >> NO. EXCELLENT POINT. I THINK THE FLOW INTO MONEY MARKET FUNDS AND SHORTER DURATION PRODUCT WAS SIGNIFICANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS AS THE FED TIGHTENED POLICY AND YOU COULD EARN IN YOUR CHECKING ACCOUNT, YOUR SAVINGS ACCOUNT AND YOUR MONEY MARKET FUND OVER 5, SOMETHING WE HAVEN'T SEEN FOR A LONG TIME, AS THE EXPECTATION FOR THE FED TO CUT POLICY RATES STARTS TO EMERGE, YOU DO TEND TO SEE THAT SHIFT FROM SHORTER DURATION TO LONGER DURATION. THIS IS A TREND THAT YOU'VE SEEN IN ALL KINDS OF ENVIRONMENTS. WHEN THE FED DOES PAUSE, WHEN THE FED DOES START TO POSITION FOR CUTTING INTEREST RATES IS THAT DURATION BECOMES YOUR FRIEND, YOU WANT TO MOVE OUT THE YIELD CURVE. AND WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THAT REALLY TAKE SHAPE. >> OKAY. SO WITH THAT IN MIND, WHAT IS THE PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION THAT INVESTORS SHOULD BE CONSIDERING WITH REGARD TO SOME OF THE FIXED INCOME EXPOSURE THAT THEY HAVE VERSUS EQUITIES? >> SO VERSUS EQUITIES YOU KNOW FIXED INCOME IS NOW OFFERING ATTRACTIVE RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS. YOU CAN GET AN ALL IN YIELD OF BETWEEN 5 AND 6, IF YOU COMPARE THAT TO, YOU KNOW, SOMETHING A LITTLE BIT LOWER IN QUALITY, LIKE HIGH YIELD, YOU CAN GET CLOSER TO 7 OR 8. SO THERE IS ATTRACTIVE RISK REWARD OPPORTUNITIES IN MIGRATING FROM EQUITIES TO FIXED INCOME. BUT EVEN JUST A REALLOCATION, IMAGINE EQUITIES HAVE OUTPERFORMED PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST YEAR. AND A REALLOCATION FROM EQUITIES TO FIXED INCOME WE DO THINK IS PRUDENT AT THIS TIME. >> MICHAEL, WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE BOND MARKET, WE REALLY HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THAT JUST IN TERMS OF THE LEADING INDICATOR IN TERMS OF THOSE RATE HIKES, RIGHT. RATE CUTS, EXCUSE ME. THE EXPECTATIONS THERE. HOW MUCH OF THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN PRICED IN AT THIS POINT. AND IF NOT, DO YOU EXPECT TO SEE MAYBE SOME CONTINUED VOLATILITY LEADING UP TO THAT FIRST RATE CUT. >> YEAH I KNOW THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. YOU KNOW JUST A LITTLE HISTORY LESSON. IF YOU GO BACK TO DECEMBER OF 2023 THERE WERE ALMOST SEVEN RATE HIKE CUTS SORRY PRICED INTO THE MARKET. AND AS THOUGH THE DATA THAT I REFERENCED EARLIER STARTED TO COME IN A LITTLE STRONGER, THOSE WERE SLOWLY TAKEN OUT. AND DESPITE THAT FIXED INCOME PERFORMED WELL, EQUITIES PERFORMED WELL BECAUSE THE ECONOMY WAS DOING OKAY. SO YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU GET TO THESE PERIODS WHERE OF THE INFLECTION POINT FROM AN ECONOMIC CYCLE PERSPECTIVE, YOU DEFINITELY SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE MORE VOLATILITY. AND WE HAVE SEEN THAT, AND SO THAT WOULD BE, YOU KNOW, SETTING US UP FOR LATTER PART OF THIS YEAR, THE QUESTION MARKS AROUND DOES INFLATION START TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FED'S 2% TARGET. DOES THE ECONOMY SHOW SIGNS OF SOME WEAKNESS, PARTICULARLY IN THE LABOR MARKET , BEING THOSE EARLY THOSE EARLY INDICATORS THAT THE FED WILL START TO MOVE ON POLICY? >> MICHAEL GROSS, WHO'S THE PRINCIPAL ASSET MANAGEMENT CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF GLOBAL FIXED INCOME, THANKS SO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME, MICHAEL. >> THANK YOU. >> COMING UP, NEW CASE-SHILLER INDEX, HOUSING DATA OUT THIS MORNING. WE'RE GOING TO DIVE IN WHEN WE'RE BACK. YOU'RE WATCHING THE MORNING BRIEF. >> IT'S A JAM PACKED HOUR FOCUSING ON THE BIGGEST MOVERS AND SHAKERS ON WALL STREET. >> THIS IS MARKET DOMINATION. AND HERE EVERY DAY IS GAME DAY. WE HAVE ONE HOUR LEFT UNTIL THE MARKET CLOSES. IT'S GAME TIME FOR INVESTORS TO MAKE THEIR FINAL PLAYS. THE CLOCK IS TICKING AND WE'VE GOT YOU COVERED WITH OUR QUARTER BY QUARTER PLAYBOOK. WE'RE BRINGING YOU IN ON ALL THE MARKET ACTION WITH STEP BY STEP ANALYSIS OF OUR BIGGEST TRENDING TICKERS AND EXPERT INSIGHT INTO THE DAY'S BIGGEST HEADLINES. >> WE'LL BRING YOU THE CLOSING BELL AND GET YOU TO THE FINISH LINE. >> THIS IS MARKET DOMINATION. >> TUNE IN DAILY FROM 3 TO 4 P.M. EASTERN. >> YOU'RE WATCHING THE MORNING BRIEF. BROUGHT TO YOU BY INVESCO HOUSING DATA OUT THIS MORNING. THE S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX HITTING AN ALL TIME HIGH IN MARCH. THE NEW REPORT SHOWING THAT HOME PRICES INCREASED FROM A MONTH AGO IN ALL MAJOR METRO MARKETS. HERE WITH WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE BROADER MARKET LANDSCAPE OR THE HOUSING MARKET, WE WANT TO BRING IN RALPH ROSICH. HE IS BANK OF AMERICA'S SENIOR EQUITY ANALYST. RALPH, IT'S GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN. SO TALK TO ME JUST ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON IN HOUSING RIGHT NOW. YOU'VE GOT HOME PRICES AT ANOTHER RECORD HIGH. YOU'VE GOT AN INVENTORY ISSUE, ANOTHER THE FACT THAT WE STILL ARE NOT SEEING TOO MANY HOMES ON THE MARKET ELEVATED MORTGAGE RATES ARE POTENTIAL HOME BUYERS. ARE THEY GOING TO SEE ANY RELIEF ANYTIME SOON? >> GOOD MORNING. THANKS FOR HAVING ME BACK AGAIN. I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE HOUSING MARKET RIGHT NOW, IT'S SORT OF A STORY OF TWO HOUSING MARKETS, NEW HOME SALES ARE TRACKING SORT OF IN LINE WITH THE WITH THE LONG TERM AVERAGE. AND WE'VE SEEN A REALLY SHARP RECOVERY FROM, FROM LAST YEAR. AND THEN ON THE EXISTING HOME OR RESALE SIDE, WE'RE THE SALES ARE REALLY DEPRESSED, WE'RE TRACKING NEAR, NEAR 30 YEAR LOWS AND IT GOES BACK TO THAT DYNAMIC ON INVENTORY THAT, THAT THAT YOU SPOKE ABOUT, WHERE RESALE INVENTORY IS JUST VERY TIGHT. THAT'S PART OF WHAT'S HELPING TO KEEP THE HOME PRICES. SO ELEVATED HERE, EVEN WITH MORTGAGE RATES AS HIGH AS THEY ARE. >> I MEAN, IS MORE CAPACITY BECAUSE BECAUSE THE INTERESTING PART THOUGHT ABOUT THIS HOME MARKET RIGHT NOW IS THAT YOU'VE GOT EVEN MORE NEW HOMES THAT CONTINUE TO BE BUILT OUT AND ADD ON TO THE CAPACITY AND WOULD HOPE THAT SOME OF THE PRICES WOULD BE BROUGHT DOWN EVENTUALLY . WHAT WHAT IS THAT ADDING INTO THE EQUATION? NOW THAT YOU HAVE A SHIFT IN THEIR HISTORICAL PERCENTAGE OR SHIFT UP AGAINST THE HISTORICAL PERCENTAGE THAT WE'VE COME TO KNOW OF WHERE EXISTING HOMES ACCOUNT FOR SALES VERSUS NEW HOMES? >> YEAH, IT'S A REALLY GOOD POINT. SO HOME BUILDERS HAVE INCREASED THE PACE OF HOUSING STARTS, BUT WE HAVE OVER 140 MILLION THAT THE HOUSING STOCK IN THE US IS AROUND 140 MILLION. HOME BUILDERS ARE ONLY GOING TO ADD 1 TO 1.5 MILLION A YEAR. SO IT'S A VERY SLOW PROCESS. WE CAN ONLY ADD A SMALL AMOUNT OF SUPPLY EACH YEAR, HISTORICALLY, IF YOU LOOK, EXISTING HOME OR RESALE INVENTORY ON THE MARKET IS, IS AROUND, AROUND, AROUND A, YOU KNOW, 60, 70% OF WHAT'S, WHAT'S AVAILABLE, RIGHT NOW, HOME BUILDERS ARE OVER 30% OF THE AVAILABLE INVENTORY THAT'S OUT THERE. SO MOST OF THE INVENTORY INCREASE IS ACTUALLY COMING FROM HOME BUILDERS, WHICH HAVE INCREASED THE PACE OF BUILDING WHILE WE'RE STILL SEEING TIGHTNESS ON THE RESALE SIDE, WE ARE ACTUALLY STARTING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LISTINGS COMING OFF OF VERY LOW BASE. AND THAT STARTED TO HAPPEN AS RATES HAVE HAVE COME DOWN A BIT HERE. >> REEVE, WHAT'S IT GOING TO TAKE WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THIS LOCK IN EFFECT? RIGHT NOW? WHAT WHAT LEVEL DO RATES NEED TO FALL TO IN ORDER FOR THAT INVENTORY PICTURE TO MATERIALLY IMPROVE? >> SO ABOUT 80% OF CURRENT HOMEOWNERS ARE LOCKED IN BELOW 5, VERSUS TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE, WHICH IS IN THE HIGH 6% RANGE. SO THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF ROOM BEFORE YOU GET TO A POINT WHERE THAT LOCK, IN FACT, GOES AWAY COMPLETELY, STILL, AS RATES DO COME DOWN, WE WOULD EXPECT SOME INVENTORY TO COME ON TO THE MARKET. AND WE ARE SEEING LISTINGS TICK UP HERE, BUT WE THINK YOU'D HAVE TO SEE SORT OF A FIVE HANDLE ON THE MORTGAGE RATE BEFORE YOU SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN, IN, LISTINGS THAT. COME ON, RALPH, WE'RE SEEING ANOTHER KIND OF RESURGENCE RIGHT NOW IN RETURN TO OFFICE POLICIES FROM COMPANIES. >> DO YOU EXPECT THAT TO OVERFLOW INTO THE HOME MARKET AS WELL? >> SO WORK FROM HOME IS DEFINITELY HELPED CHANGE THE AREAS WHERE PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO LIVE. WE'VE SEEN A PUSH OUT A LITTLE BIT FURTHER AWAY FROM SOME OF THE CITY CENTERS, SO THERE DOES FEEL LIKE THERE'S SOME BALANCE HERE WHERE THERE'S FLEXIBILITY, IT COULD HELP DRIVE HOME DEMAND A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO HOME CENTER TO CITY CENTERS, BUT THAT'S WHERE THERE'S VERY LITTLE INVENTORY, WHERE HOME BUILDERS ARE BUILDING AND WHERE THE NEW INVENTORY IS COMING ON IS A LITTLE BIT FURTHER OUT INTO SUBURBS OR EVEN THE EXURBS, SO IT'S HELPING AGAIN TO KEEP HOME PRICES ELEVATED. >> SO IF YOU'RE AN INVESTOR OUT THERE, YOU'RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE BEST WAY TO APPROACH THIS MARKET. RIGHT NOW. YOU'VE GOT A COUPLE OF HOME BUILDERS THAT YOU THINK ARE BEST POSITIONED AT THIS POINT IN THE CYCLE. WHO ARE THEY AND WHAT GIVES THEM THAT EDGE RIGHT NOW IN THE MARKET? >> SURE. SO TWO HOME BUILDER STOCKS THAT WE WOULD HIGHLIGHT WOULD BE TOLL BROTHERS AND PULTE. TOLL BROTHERS. WE THINK FIRST OF ALL, THE VALUATION IS VERY ATTRACTIVE. IT'S TRADING ABOUT A ONE AND A HALF TIMES TIMES PRICE TO BOOK WITH A VERY HIGH RETURN ON EQUITY. THEY COMPETE, THE MOST, MORE DIRECTLY AGAINST SMALLER PRIVATE BUILDERS WHICH ARE LOSING SHARE TO PUBLIC BUILDERS JUST BECAUSE, FINANCING COSTS ARE A LOT, LOT HIGHER FOR THEM, SO WE THINK TOLL BROTHERS IS POSITIONED BOTH TO, TO GAIN SHARE. AND THEN WE THINK THE VALUATION IS VERY ATTRACTIVE, AND THEN PULTE. PULTE SELLS ACROSS A BROAD RANGE OF PRICE POINTS, WHICH IS PRETTY UNIQUE FOR A PUBLIC HOME BUILDER WHERE THEIR ENTRY LEVEL ACTIVE ADULT AND THEN MOVE UP HOMES. SO YOU HAVE BROAD RANGE OF PRICE POINTS AND, AND HOMEOWNERS THAT YOU'RE, OR HOME BUYERS THAT YOU HAVE EXPOSURE TO, AND THEN THEY'RE VERY AGGRESSIVE ABOUT BUYING BACK STOCK, WHICH WE THINK WILL HELP THEIR ROE LONGER TERM. >> ALL RIGHT RALPH, ALWAYS GOOD TO GET SOME OF YOUR INSIGHTS. THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING US HERE THIS MORNING RALPH CHAD ROSS WHO IS THE BANK OF AMERICA SENIOR EQUITY ANALYST. APPRECIATE IT. >> THANKS FOR HAVING ME. >> THANKS, EVERYONE. YOU'RE WATCHING THE MORNING BRIEF SPONSORED BY INVESCO. COMING UP, ANOTHER BIG BANK HAS RAISED THEIR S&P YEAR END PRICE TARGET. WE'LL TELL YOU ALL ABOUT IT AFTER THE BREAK. >> IT'S A JAM PACKED HOUR. FOCUSING ON THE BIGGEST MOVERS AND SHAKERS ON WALL STREET. >> THIS IS MARKET DOMINATION. AND HERE EVERY DAY IS GAME DAY. >> WE HAVE ONE HOUR LEFT UNTIL THE MARKET CLOSES. >> IT'S GAME TIME FOR INVESTORS TO MAKE THEIR FINAL PLAYS AS THE CLOCK IS TICKING. >> AND WE'VE GOT YOU COVERED WITH OUR QUARTER BY QUARTER PLAYBOOK, WE'RE BRINGING YOU IN ON ALL THE MARKET ACTION WITH STEP BY STEP ANALYSIS OF OUR BIGGEST TRENDING TICKERS AND EXPERT INSIGHT INTO THE DAY'S BIGGEST HEADLINES. WE'LL BRING YOU THE CLOSING BELL AND GET YOU TO THE FINISH LINE. >> THIS IS MARKET DOMINATION. >> TUNE IN DAILY FROM 3 TO 4 P.M. EASTERN. >> YOU'RE WATCHING THE MORNING BRIEF, SPONSORED BY INVESCO. WALL STREET IS GETTING MORE AND MORE BULLISH. JUST THIS MORNING, UBS RAISED ITS TARGET ON THE S&P 500 TO 5600. THAT'S UP FROM THEIR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 5400. THAT IS TYING FOR THE HIGHEST ON THE STREET RIGHT NOW. AND FOR MORE, WE'RE BRINGING IN OUR OWN JOSH SHAFER. HEY, JOSH. YEAH. >> BRAD. SO UBS INVESTMENT BANK, US EQUITY STRATEGIST JONATHAN GOLUB MOVING UP HIS YEAR END TARGET FOR THE S&P 500 TO 5600 FROM 5400. HE HAD BEEN EVEN LOWER THAN 5000 FOR THE S&P 500 PRIOR TO THE YEAR IN THEIR INITIAL OUTLOOK, LARGELY WHAT HE'S TALKING ABOUT HERE IS JUST HE THINKS EARNINGS GROWTH IS GOING TO BE STRONGER. AND ALSO THE ECONOMIC BACKDROP IS GOING TO BE STRONGER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS IS REALLY THE SENTIMENT THAT HAS BEEN SHARED AMONG ALL OF THE STRATEGISTS THAT HAVE BEEN BOOSTING THEIR S&P 500 TARGETS FOR OF THE MACRO STRATEGISTS THAT WE TRACK HERE AT YAHOO FINANCE HAVE BOOSTED THEIR TARGET IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS ALONE. SO IT'S BEEN A CLEAR TREND HERE. ZOOMING IN ON EARNINGS GROWTH A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE I THINK THIS HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY INTERESTING WHEN YOU JUST LOOK AT THE FACT THAT GOL POINTS OUT EARNINGS ESTIMATES HAVEN'T BEEN COMING DOWN FOR THE CURRENT QUARTER. THEY HAVEN'T BEEN COMING DOWN FOR 2024, AND THEY'RE ALSO NOT COMING DOWN FOR 2025. THAT IS NOT NORMAL. NORMALLY AT THIS POINT IN THE YEAR YOU WOULD SEE EARNINGS ESTIMATES START TO TICK DOWN A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THEY ARE RIGHT NOW. SO WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT 2024 WE'RE LOOKING AT 11.4% EARNINGS GROWTH FOR THE YEAR. THAT'S UP FROM JUST UNDER 11% A MONTH AGO. AND THEN 2025 YOU'RE LOOKING AT 14.2% EARNINGS GROWTH. AGAIN THAT IS UP FROM WHAT CONSENSUS SAW A MONTH AGO. SO YOU'RE SEEING A RISING OF EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS HERE. WE KNOW IN THE LONG RUN THAT'S PROBABLY THE BEST DRIVER OF STOCKS IS JUST SIMPLY EARNINGS GROWTH. SO WHEN YOU HAVE THAT KIND OF MOMENTUM IT'S NOT HARD TO SEE HOW THAT DRIVES. EXCUSE ME DRIVE STOCKS HIGHER. >> YEAH EXACTLY. AND YOU TALK ABOUT THE BROADER MOVEMENT HERE THAT WE HAVE SEEN. BUT IT'S ALSO THIS ROTATION RIGHT. THAT WE STARTED TO SEE THIS BROADENING OUT WITHIN MARKET PARTICIPATION. WE TALK ABOUT THAT EARNINGS GROWTH, THE STELLAR GROWTH THAT WE WERE EXPECTED TO SEE. NOW FOR QUARTERS TO COME. WHAT ARE YOU SEEING JUST IN TERMS OF THAT SECTOR REEVALUATION AND WHERE ECONOMISTS WHERE SOME OF THESE STRATEGISTS ARE EXPECTING THAT GROWTH TO COME FROM, BECAUSE THAT'S DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE PRIOR COUPLE. >> IT IS DIFFERENT. SO IT'S INTERESTING BECAUSE PEOPLE THOUGHT WE WERE GOING TO SEE MORE OF THAT ROTATION THIS QUARTER. AND THEN WHEN YOU TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT EARNINGS GROWTH FOR THE FIRST QUARTER, WE DIDN'T REALLY SEE IT RIGHT. TECH REALLY DROVE EARNINGS AGAIN. BUT YOU DID HAVE EARNINGS START TO COME UP A LITTLE BIT. IT'S BEEN INTERESTING. SEANA YOU WERE JUST POINTING OUT WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT ESTIMATES AND SORT OF WHERE THINGS ARE GETTING UPGRADED RIGHT NOW. OVER QUARTER TO DATE UTILITIES HAS SEEN UPGRADES. ENERGY HAS SEEN UPGRADES. BUT LET'S THINK ABOUT WHAT SECTORS HAVE BEEN RALLYING. AND WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR THE LAST MONTH AND A HALF. IT'S BEEN UTILITIES AND IT'S BEEN ENERGY. RIGHT. MAJ7 EARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN UPGRADED BY A LITTLE OVER 1% IN THE LAST MONTH AND A HALF. SO YOU'RE SEEING IT STILL INTACT, BUT YOU'RE SEEING IT IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL. AND THEN I THINK GOING BEYOND EARNINGS. BUT A LOT OF THESE STRATEGISTS ARE FLAGGING. GOLLOB HIGHLIGHTED THIS DEUTSCHE BANK BINKY CHADHA TOLD ME THE S&P 500 COULD GET TO 6000 BY THE END OF THE YEAR IF ECONOMIC GROWTH CONTINUES TO SURPRISE TO THE UPSIDE TOO. RIGHT. SO WE'RE TALKING ABOUT EARNINGS GROWTH SURPRISING TO THE UPSIDE ECONOMIC GROWTH RIGHT NOW PEOPLE ARE FEELING MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THEY FELT TO START THE YEAR. BUT STILL AT ABOUT JUST OVER 2% FOR THE YEAR WOULD BE WHERE GDP KIND OF LANDS. WHAT IF THAT GETS TO 3 OR 4% AND WE KEEP OUTPERFORMING? THAT'S WHERE STRATEGISTS NOW SEE. SO REALLY THE REAL UPSIDE IN THE S&P 500 BECAUSE REMEMBER A 5600 CALL YES FEELS BULLISH. IT'S REALLY ONLY 5 OR 6% FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW. SO IT'S BULLISH. YES. AND IT'S GOING TO LOOK BULLISH ON THE YEAR. BUT THAT'S NOT THAT MUCH HIGHER TO GET SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER FROM WHERE WE ARE NOW. IT WOULD BE THE EARNINGS GROWTH COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER THAN EXPECTED ECONOMIC GROWTH. SO THAT WOULD BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE. YEAH. >> WELL IT'S LIKE STEVE WOZNIAK WAS TELLING US EARLIER IN THE SHOW HE WOULD GLADLY AND HAPPILY TAKE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE EVEN IF WE DIDN'T SEE RATE CUTS, WE DIDN'T SEE AS WELL A MAJOR ECONOMIC CRASH THAT TRIGGERED THOSE RATE CUTS. AS LONG AS WE STILL GOT THE EARNINGS GROWTH FROM COMPANIES RIGHT NOW, IF THE FED DOESN'T CUT BECAUSE THE ECONOMY IS DOING WELL, IT IS PROBABLY STILL A GOOD THING FOR COMPANIES, RIGHT? >> WE'VE BEEN SAYING IT FOR MONTHS AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONVERSATION WHEN WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THIS. >> ALL RIGHT. JOSH GREAT STUFF. THANKS SO MUCH FOR HOPPING ON HERE WITH US. ALL RIGHT. WE'VE GOT MUCH MORE OF YOUR MARKET ACTION AHEAD. STAY TUNED. YOU'RE WATCHING YAHOO FINANCE. >> EVER WONDER WHY A STOCK SUDDENLY DROPS DOUBLE DIGITS OR BITCOIN UNEXPECTEDLY HITS RECORD HIGHS? >> WE'RE UNPACKING THE CATALYST DRIVING DAILY MARKET ACTION AND EXPLAINING THE CHAIN REACTION. >> WHY ARE OIL PRICES TRENDING LOWER DESPITE ONGOING GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS? >> OR WHY A COMPANY'S STOCK IS UP EVEN THOUGH IT MISSED ON EARNINGS? INSIGHT FROM TOP STRATEGISTS, ECONOMISTS AND BUSINESS LEADERS WILL HELP YOU MAKE THE SMARTEST CHOICES FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO. >> THIS IS CATALYST. >> TUNE IN DAILY 10 A.M. EASTERN ON YAHOO FINANCE. >> YAHOO! FINANCE AS WELL IS YOUR GUIDE. YOUR GROUP OF ADVISORS. PLANNERS AND JARGON BUSTERS TO HELP YOU SAVE, BUILD, AND GROW YOUR MONEY. HOW DO I KNOW IF I'M SAVING ENOUGH FOR RETIREMENT? HOW DO I KNOW IF IT'S RIGHT FOR ME TO GO ON THAT LAVISH VACATION? IS IT FINALLY TIME TO REFINANCE MY MORTGAGE? HOW DO I PAY LESS IN TAXES? WE'LL GET YOU THE ANSWERS YOU NEED. WELL EARNING IT, GROWING IT, AND MANAGING IT. IT'S MORE THAN TRACKING JUST THE LATEST MARKET MOVES. IT'S MORE THAN YOUR FAVORITE TRENDING TICKERS. ONE DOES NOT SIMPLY BUILD WEALTH WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE ENTIRE FINANCIAL LANDSCAPE. IT TAKES A COMMUNITY, AND WE'VE BUILT ONE FOR YOU. >> WELL CUTS THROUGH THE NOISE TO HELP GUIDE YOUR FINANCIAL DECISIONS. >> SO THAT YOUR MONEY WORKS FOR YOU. WELL ON YAHOO FINANCE PREMIERES MARCH 25TH. >> IT'S 10 A.M. HERE IN NEW YORK CITY. I'M SEANA SMITH ALONGSIDE MADISON MILLS. LET'S DIVE INTO THE CATALYST MOVING MARKETS TODAY A SLEW OF ECONOMIC DATA IN THE LAST TRADING WEEK OF THE MONTH HERE. >> WE'VE GOT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE COMING IN RIGHT NOW A LITTLE HOTTER THAN EXPECTED. THAT IS AHEAD OF PCE COMING OUT ON FRIDAY. HERE NOW THAT IS THE FED'S PREFERRED INFLATION GAUGE. SO WE'LL BE WATCHING IT CLOSELY. AND IT COULD SET THE TONE FOR MARKETS HEADING INTO THE MONTH OF JUNE. >> AND WE GET RESULTS FROM DISCOUNT AND SPECIALTY RETAILERS THIS WEEK COSTCO DICK'S SPORTING GOODS BEST BUY AND ULTA ALL SET TO GIVE US A LITTLE BIT MORE INSIGHT INTO THE STRENGTH OF THE CONSUMER AND APPLE'S IPHONE SALES COULD BE REBOUNDING IN CHINA, A NEW REPORT SHOWING THAT SHIPMENTS JUMPED OVER 50% IN APRIL, AND NOW APPLE HAS BEEN UNDER PRESSURE IN CHINA FOR SEVERAL QUARTERS. >> NOW WE'RE GOING TO DIVE INTO WHAT A POTENTIAL BOUNCE BACK COULD MEAN FOR THE COMPANY MOVING FORWARD. HERE >> WE WANT TO GET TO SOME BREAKING NEWS OUT RIGHT NOW. THE CONSUMER THE CONFERENCE BOARD'S CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY COMING IN BETTER THAN EXPECTED, RISING TO 102. THE ESTIMATE WAS FOR 96. THIS IS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. THAT'S UP FROM THAT'S FROM A REVISED 97.5 IN APRIL. SO COMING IN BETTER THAN EXPECTED. AND IMPROVEMENT THAN WHAT WE SAW IN THE PREVIOUS QUARTER. REMEMBER THAT THIS COMES AFTER THREE CONSECUTIVE DECLINES HERE IN THE GAUGE. SO AGAIN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE VERY CRITICAL WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE HEALTH OF THE CONSUMER, WE'LL BE GETTING A LITTLE BIT MORE INFORMATION ON CONSUMER SPENDING TRENDS. WHEN WE GET THE RESULTS FROM A NUMBER OF EARNINGS THAT ARE SET TO REPORT THIS WEEK. BUT AGAIN, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONTH OF MAY COMING IN AT BETTER THAN EXPECTED RIGHT AROUND THE INDEX AT 102 FLAT. MADDIE >> YEAH, THIS IS IMPORTANT TO WATCH, PARTICULARLY BECAUSE OF THE CONFUSION AROUND A LOT OF THE MAJOR DATA POINTS. WE WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT PCE COMING UP ON FRIDAY. THAT IS THE FED'S PREFERRED INFLATION GAUGE, PARTICULARLY WITH SUPER CORE, WHICH STRIPS OUT THE VOLATILE SECTORS LIKE ENERGY, LIKE HOUSING. BUT IT MIRRORS A LITTLE BIT OF WHAT WE HEARD FROM LORETTA MESTER THIS MORNING, SAYING THAT SHE IS HOPEFUL THAT THEY CAN HAVE SOME CHANGES IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE MOVING FORWARD WITH THINGS LIKE ADDITIONAL WORD COUNT IN THE POLICY STATEMENT, BECAUSE THERE IS SO MUCH CONFUSION COMING FROM THE FED TO CONSUMERS IN TERMS OF WHAT THE INFLATION AND ECONOMIC PICTURE LOOKS LIKE. AND THIS LATEST CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA INDICATING SOME OF THAT AS WELL, AND THE FED'S DESIRE TO KIND OF INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF COMMUNICATION FROM FED SPEAK TO CONSUMERS, AS THIS PICTURE ABOUT THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE BIT GRAY HERE SEANA. >> ALL RIGHT MADDIE THIS WEEK'S TREASURY AUCTIONS KICKING OFF WITH TWO AND FIVE YEAR NOTES. AND IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT BOND TRADERS WHO ARE WATCHING THE AUCTION CLOSELY. THE S&P 500 HAS MOVED ABOUT 1% IN EITHER DIRECTION ON AUCTION DAYS. THIS IS GOING BACK TO SOME OF THE PATTERNS THAT WE'VE BEEN LOOKING AT SINCE 2022. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OUT FROM CITI. SO HE HAD TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT HOW THIS WEEK'S AUCTIONS COULD IMPACT THE BROADER EQUITY MARKET. WE WANT TO BRING IN BRIAN LEVITT. HE'S INVESCO GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST HERE. AND BRIAN, BEFORE WE GET TO THAT, JUST YOUR QUICK REACTION TO WHAT WE'RE GETTING ON THE DATA SIDE OF IT WHEN IT COMES TO CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND EXACTLY HOW THE EQUITY MARKET YOU THINK IS LOOKING AT SOME OF THESE SENTIMENT NUMBERS, IT'S NOT A SURPRISE THAT THE CONSUMER IS FEELING WELL, IT'S ACTUALLY BEEN A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A SURPRISE THAT THE CONSUMER HAD FELT A BIT CHALLENGED. >> WE HAVE A HISTORICALLY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND THE WEALTH EFFECTS OF INVESTING IN THE MARKET CONTINUE TO GO UP. SO IT SHOULDN'T BE A MAJOR SURPRISE THAT CONSUMERS ARE FEELING WELL. I GET IT. STILL HIGH COST OF LIVING, AND THAT'S LIKELY WITH US NOW. BUT THE RATE OF CHANGE HAS IMPROVED. SO CONSUMERS HANGING IN THERE, WHICH IS SHOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR THE MARKETS. I MEAN, AGAIN, A BETTER GROWTH BACKDROP IS CERTAINLY IS CERTAINLY BETTER FOR MARKETS THAN A WEAKER ONE. >> AND STOCKS HERE ARE WAVERING JUST A LITTLE BIT BRIAN. NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR REACTION AT LEAST ON MY END FROM THESE LATEST NUMBERS HERE. BUT I AM CURIOUS FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE, WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE SINGLE BIGGEST CATALYST IN THIS FINAL WEEK OF TRADING FOR THE MONTH? COMING OFF OF FIVE WEEKS OF HIGHS, AT LEAST FOR THE S&P HERE? >> YEAH, YOU MENTIONED IT. IT'S THE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE REPORT ON FRIDAY. I MEAN THIS IS A MARKET THAT HAS BEEN VERY FOCUSED ON INFLATION, VERY FOCUSED ON WHAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS GOING TO DO AT LEAST OVER SHORT TERM PERIODS. SO WHEN YOU GET A MISS ON INFLATION, MEANING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, THE MARKETS START DEALING WITH POLICY UNCERTAINTY. AGAIN, YOU GET SOME VOLATILITY AND YOU GET SOME DRAWDOWN. SO IF WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE NEXT FIVE DAYS YOU HAVE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE. SHOULD BE FRONT AND CENTER ON INVESTORS MINDS. >> BRIAN WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIKELY MOVE IS GOING TO BE IF THAT REPORT COMES IN AT LEAST SHOWING THAT THE TREND LINE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, THE FED HAS MADE SOME PROGRESS IN TAMING INFLATION. HOW MUCH HAS THAT ALREADY BEEN PRICED IN TO THE MARKET AT THIS POINT? >> WELL, I MEAN, WE'VE WE'VE PRICED IN SOME GOOD RESULTS, BUT I STILL THINK THE MARKET WOULD BE VERY ENTHUSED BY IT, YOU KNOW, LOOK, THE MARKET HAS BEEN DRIVEN AT LEAST OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS BY A HANDFUL OF NAMES. NOW THAT'S BROADENED OUT A LITTLE BIT RECENTLY. BUT WHAT WE'LL START TO HAPPEN AS INFLATION GETS FIRMER INTO THE FED'S COMFORT ZONE, AT LEAST ON THE PCE. AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE'RE EITHER ON HOLD INDEFINITELY OR MAY BE ABLE TO START SLOWLY NORMALIZING THE YIELD CURVE THAT'S GOING TO HELP BROADEN OUT MARKET PARTICIPATION. SO THERE'S MANY NAMES TRADING AT PRETTY REASONABLE VALUATIONS THAT ARE WAITING FOR PERHAPS A LOWER RATE ENVIRONMENT OR A NORMAL YIELD CURVE ENVIRONMENT TO BE THE CATALYST TO UNLOCK SOME OF THAT VALUE. >> BRIAN, I'M INTERESTED IN YOUR TAKE ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH PMI AND NVIDIA HERE BECAUSE WE SAW THAT NVIDIA OBVIOUSLY A HUGE BEAT, BUT PMI DATA CONTINUE TO PUT SOME PRESSURE ON THE MARKET. DO YOU THINK THAT THE PCE DATA COULD HAVE THAT SAME MARKET DYNAMIC. AND WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU JUST ABOUT WHAT'S DRIVIN THE MARKET RIGHT NOW AND THE IMPORTANCE OF ECONOMIC DATA RIGHT NOW? >> YEAH, IT IS A VERY MACRO ENVIRONMENT BECAUSE WE WERE AT A HIGH INFLATION ENVIRONMENT. AND YOU KNOW, THE MARKET SOLD OFF 25% IN 2022 EXPECTING A MILD RECESSION. THAT HASN'T HAPPENED. SO AS THE MARKET HAS, AS THE ECONOMY HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE AND INFLATION HAS COME DOWN, THAT'S BEEN A GOOD BACKDROP FOR RISK ASSETS. PEAK INFLATION IS ALMOST ALWAYS A GOOD BACKDROP FOR RISK ASSETS. NOW WE'RE LOOKING TO STICK EITHER NO LANDING I GUESS THAT'S NOT STICKING. WE EITHER HAVE NO LANDING OR WE STICK THE PROVERBIAL SOFT LANDING. SO THINGS LIKE PMI, PURCHASING MANAGER INDEX AND THE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE ARE FRONT AND CENTER BECAUSE THEY'RE SIGNS. THEY'RE INDICATORS TO SUGGEST WHETHER THE ECONOMY IS HEADING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION OR WHETHER INFLATION IS HEADING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION RIGHT NOW, A LITTLE BIT OF A MIXED PICTURE ON THE ECONOMIC SIDE, BUT STILL LARGELY RESILIENT ECONOMY WITH SOME PICKUP IN GROWTH OVERSEAS, AND INFLATION SEEMS TO BE AT LEAST ON THE FED'S PREFERRED MEASURE IN THEIR COMFORT ZONE. SO IT'S A GOOD BACKDROP FOR RISK ASSETS. BUT THAT'S CERTAINLY COULD BE DISRUPTED IN THE SHORT TERM BY A BAD DATA POINT HERE. OR THERE ON INFLATION OR GROWTH. >> AND BRIAN, TO THE POINT IT BRINGS ME TO SOMETHING I READ FROM GOLDMAN'S NOTE OUT THIS MORNING. THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT HOW SOFT THAT IS UNDERPERFORMING HARD DATA. AND THEY WERE SAYING THAT LOOKING AHEAD TO ISM MANUFACTURING, LOOKING AHEAD TO ISM SERVICES, ALL CONSISTENT WITH NEAR NEAR ZERO REAL GDP GROWTH, MY QUESTION TO YOU IS, IS THAT AT ALL WORRISOME OR WHAT POTENTIALLY THAT SIGNALS THEN FOR THE MARKETS AT THIS POINT. >> YEAH I MEAN IT'S CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH. I MEAN, IT'S AN ECONOMY THAT'S NOT GOING TO, YOU KNOW, STAY AT THE LEVELS IT'S BEEN FOREVER. AND SO THINGS ARE ALWAYS ARE EXPECTING TO MODERATE AND SURVEY DATA TENDS TO DO A GOOD JOB OF CAPTURING IT. THE GOOD NEWS IS AS THE US IS, IS PERHAPS MORE MODERATING A BIT. OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD ARE PICKING UP CHINA, EUROPE, THE UK. SO IN GENERAL, GLOBAL GROWTH REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE AND IT'S A MARKET THAT'S ENTHUSED. I MEAN, IT'S NOT A MARKET THAT'S TELLING US GROWTH IS GOING TO DETERIORATE MEANINGFULLY. THE MARKET TENDS TO LEAD THE ECONOMY, NOT VICE VERSA. SO THE MARKET'S TELLING US THAT THAT GROWTH IS GOING TO HANG IN THERE. BUT BUT YEAH I MEAN THE RISKS SEANA IS THAT YOU KNOW WE'RE WE'RE SITTING HERE AFTER THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RATE HIKES THAT WE'VE SEEN WITH THE FED ON HOLD INDEFINITELY. WAITING FOR THE LAG EFFECTS OF POLICY TIGHTENING. PERHAPS THEY SHOULD BE STARTING TO GET OUT IN FRONT OF THAT A BIT. BUT CERTAINLY THEY'RE GOING TO REMAIN DATA DEPENDENT AT THIS POINT. >> SO I DO WANT TO GO BACK TO THE TREASURY AUCTIONS THAT WE CAME TO YOU ON, BRIAN, BECAUSE I KNOW THAT YOU MENTIONED THAT THEY'RE NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT, BUT GIVEN THAT WE DON'T HAVE A CLEAR CENTRAL THESIS FROM THE FED, I FEEL LIKE WE ARE ALL GRASPING AT STRAWS TO GET A CENTRAL THESIS HERE. WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO BE WATCHING AT AUCTIONS TO INDICATE WHERE WE ARE AT WITH DEMAND? AND WHAT WILL THAT TELL YOU? MOVING FORWARD? >> YEAH, I MEAN, WE'RE JUST LOOKING TO MAKE SURE THAT THESE THINGS PASS WITHOUT INCIDENT, THAT THERE'S NO SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTION, THAT THERE'S MORE THAN ENOUGH DEMAND TO MATCH THE SUPPLY WITHOUT A MEANINGFUL MOVE IN RATES. I DON'T SPEND A TON OF TIME STRESSING ABOUT TREASURY AUCTIONS, BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT HOW THE TREASURY MARKETS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING, THEY'RE NOT TRADING ON ANY TYPE OF FUNDAMENTAL CONCERN FOR THE US GOVERNMENT. THEY'RE TRADING ON GROWTH AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS. AND SO, YOU KNOW, RATES ARE IN LINE WITH WHERE INVESTORS BELIEVE NOMINAL ACTIVITY WILL BE OR SHOULD BE. AND SO THESE AUCTIONS YEAH, THEY MAY CAUSE SOME HICCUPS IF WE DON'T SEE THE TYPE OF DEMAND WE WANT. BUT AGAIN THERE'S VERY LITTLE TO SUGGEST THAT TREASURY YIELDS ARE TRADING ON ANYTHING BUT NOMINAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS AND WHERE THE FED'S LIKELY TO BE. >> REALLY. GOOD MORNING BRIAN. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US AND CHATTING THROUGH THAT BREAKING NEWS WITH US AT THE TOP. WE APPRECIATE IT. THAT WAS BRIAN LEAVITT. HE IS INVESCO GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST. TURNING NOW TO A TRENDING TICKER ON THE YAHOO FINANCE PLATFORM, APPLE SHARES ARE RISING ON NEWS THAT SALES OF THE IPHONE ARE REBOUNDING IN CHINA, WITH SHIPMENTS UP 52% IN APRIL. HERE WITH WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE COMPANY MOVING FORWARD IS OUR VERY OWN AKIKO FUJITA. AKIKO, HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THIS? >> YEAH, IT'S CERTAINLY A BIG RELIEF FOR INVESTORS, GIVEN THAT APPLE'S REVENUE, ROUGHLY 20% OF IT COMES FROM CHINA. YOU'RE SEEING THAT REFLECTED IN THE MOVE IN SHARES, AS YOU POINTED OUT, UP ABOUT 1. ALTHOUGH THE STOCK IS STILL DOWN ON THE YEAR. NOW, THE LATEST DATA COMES FROM RESEARCH FIRM THE CHINA ACADEMY OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY. IT POINTS TO A 52% JUMP IN SHIPMENTS OF FOREIGN BRANDS IN A MONTH, WHERE OVERALL SMARTPHONE SHIPMENTS CONTINUE TO GAIN MOMENTUM. NOW, THE DATA DOES NOT EXPLICITLY BREAK OUT APPLE'S NUMBERS, BUT THOSE 3.5 MILLION UNITS SHIPPED ARE LARGELY ATTRIBUTED TO APPLE, GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL THE DOMINANT FOREIGN BRAND IN THE MARKET. THE MOMENTUM FOLLOWS A REBOUND THAT WE SAW IN MARCH, A BIT OF A REVERSAL HERE AFTER THE COMPANY STARTED THE YEAR, SEEING DOUBLE DIGIT DECLINES AND IT COMES ON THE HEELS OF AN AGGRESSIVE PRICE CUTTING STRATEGY BY THE TECH GIANT. BACK IN FEBRUARY, APPLE'S THIRD PARTY RETAILERS BEGAN SLASHING THE DEVICES BY AS MUCH AS 10. THAT WAS SEEN AS A DIRECT RESPONSE TO INCREASING COMPETITION THE COMPANY FACES FROM HUAWEI AND THE PREMIUM SMARTPHONE MARKET. REMEMBER THE HOMEGROWN PLAYER HAS BEEN CHIPPING AWAY AT APPLE'S MARKET SHARE SINCE IT LAUNCHED OWN PREMIUM SMARTPHONE IN THE FALL OF LAST YEAR. THAT LED TO A 19% DROP IN SHIPMENTS FOR APPLE IN THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF THE YEAR. THE COMPANY REPORTED AN 8% ROUGHLY DROP IN ITS MOST RECENT QUARTER FOR THE GREATER CHINA REGION. NOW, AS GOOD AS THE NUMBERS WERE FOR APPLE IN APRIL, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT MOMENTUM CAN BUILD EVEN MORE BECAUSE OF THOSE AGGRESSIVE PRICE CUTTING CAMPAIGNS THE COMPANY HAS ENGAGED IN EARLIER THIS MONTH, APPLE UPPED ITS DISCOUNTS, SLASHING PRICES BY UP TO $320 ON SELECT IPHONE MODELS AT ITS TEAM MALL SITE. SO INVESTORS CERTAINLY HOPING THAT THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A CONTINUED MOMENTUM HERE AS APPLE AND HUAWEI CONTINUE TO GO NECK AND NECK FACE OFF IN THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST SMARTPHONE MARKET. >> ALL RIGHT, AKIKO, THANKS SO MUCH FOR BREAKING THAT DOWN FOR US HERE. KEEP IT RIGHT HERE ON YAHOO FINANCE. WE'VE GOT MUCH MORE OF YOUR MARKET ACTION AHEAD. AGAIN YOU'RE LOOKING AT A MIXED PICTURE. JUST ABOUT 45 MINUTES INTO THE TRADING DAY. YOU'VE GOT THE NASDAQ AND S&P HOLDING ON TO GAINS. THE DOW OFF JUST AROUND 140. YOU'RE WATCHING CATALYSTS. >> STOCKS ARE LITTLE CHANGED ON THIS SHORTENED WEEK. HERE, TAKING A LOOK AT THE MAJOR INDICES. ABOUT FLAT ON THE S&P. THE NASDAQ JUST ABOVE THE FLAT LINE AT ABOUT UP ABOUT 3/10 OF A PERCENT HERE. BUT THE S&P DID HIT A RECORD HIGH LAST WEEK DESPITE SOME OF THE PULLBACK THAT WE'VE SEEN AS OF TODAY. OUR NEXT GUEST DOES SEE MORE HIGHS AHEAD WITH MORE ON THIS. WE HAVE ARI WALD. HE IS OPPENHEIMER'S HEAD OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. ARI, THANKS SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE. I KNOW THAT AS A TECHNICALS GUY, YOU'RE ALWAYS LOOKING AT THE CHART PATTERNS AND IN YOUR LATEST NOTE THAT WE HAVE HERE, YOU SHOW A CHART THAT HAS THE S&P 50 AND 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGES COMPARED WITH NIKE'S VOLUME. WHAT IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY THAT WE SHOULD DERIVE FROM LOOKING AT THOSE CHARTS TOGETHER? >> YEAH, I THINK IT'S LOOKING AT THE VOLUME FLOWS GOING INTO THE RECENT PRICE HIGH LAST WEEK THAT WHAT THE VOLUME LINE IS CAPTURING IS THAT VOLUME INTO ADVANCING SHARES IS OUTPACING VOLUME INTO DECLINING SHARES. SO WE VIEW THAT AS A SIGN THAT INVESTORS ARE ACCUMULATING STOCKS RATHER THAN DISTRIBUTING THEM. AND TYPICALLY THAT IS A SIGN OF A TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE. IT'S VIEWED AS CONFIRMATION. AND SO IT'S REALLY JUST REITERATING THE POINT THAT WE MAKE THAT THE SECOND YEAR OF THIS BULL MARKET CYCLE IS INTACT. INVESTORS SHOULD BE LOOKING TO BUY PULLBACKS IN ANTICIPATION FOR HIGHER MARKET HIGHS OVER THE COMING MONTHS. >> AND ARI, WHAT ARE SOME OF THE TECHNICAL TRENDS THAT YOU'RE NOTICING HERE WITHIN THE RUSSELL 2000. BECAUSE YOU ALSO MAKE A CASE IN A RECENT NOTE, JUST IN TERMS OF THE FACT THAT THAT IT IS HOLDING ABOVE ITS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE, THAT THAT IS SIGNIFICANT JUST IN TERMS OF THE MARKET PARTICIPATION THAT WILL LIKELY SEE RC. >> THAT'S RIGHT. IF YOU THINK BACK TO AND AGAIN, FOR US, THE BULL MARKET STARTED IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2022. BUT THROUGH THE FIRST YEAR OF THAT IN 2023, IT WAS VERY DRIVEN BY LARGE CAPS. AND YOU REALLY DIDN'T SEE THE RUSSELL 2000 PARTICIPATE TO AS MEANINGFUL OF A DEGREE. AND WE HAVEN'T REALLY HAD THIS BROAD BASED BREAKAWAY IN THE MARKET. EVERY TIME THEY'RE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF AN EVERYTHING RALLY SMALL CAPS PULL BACK. AND WE'RE SEEING SOME SIGNS THAT THAT COULD BE CHANGING. THAT ONE KEY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOW AND THE ACTION LAST YEAR IS THAT THE RUSSELL HAS BEEN ABLE TO HOLD ITS 200 DAY AVERAGE. IT WASN'T ABLE TO DO THAT THROUGHOUT 2023. SO AGAIN, IT HASN'T BEEN ABLE TO REALLY SUSTAIN THIS BREAKOUT. BUT FOR US THAT COULD JUST BE A MATTER OF TIME. AS WE THINK ABOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THIS YEAR. YOU KNOW, WE WANT OUR CLIENTS TO BE EMBRACED FOR WHAT COULD FINALLY BE THE BROAD BASED BREAKAWAY IN THE CYCLE THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN YET. >> WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CHARTS, WHEN IT COMES TO THE BROADENING OUT QUESTION, PARTICULARLY WITH THE RUSSELL, ARE YOU SEEING SIGNS THAT IT'S DRIVEN BY INDIVIDUAL COMPANY NEWS OR IS IT MORE A MACRO PICTURE THAT INDICATES THAT THERE IS A REAL HUNGER FOR A MARKET BROADENING THAT COULD HAVE LEGS, THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THE, YOU KNOW, BOTTOM UP, DISPERSION WIDENED TO A CERTAIN DEGREE THAT THERE ARE STOCKS WORKING IN THE SMALL CAP SPACE DESPITE THE ACTION, IN THE RUSSELL. AND I THINK THAT SPEAKS TO IT BEING HELD BACK BY SOME MACRO ISSUE, THAT BEING SOME ISSUES IN REGIONAL BANKS WHICH HAVE REALLY, PRESSURED OUR BIG COMPONENT OF THE RUSSELL 2000 AND HAVE PRESSURED THAT BENCHMARK, I THINK THERE'S, OBVIOUSLY THE FED CYCLE HAS A LOT TO DO WITH IT AS WELL, AND, AGAIN, THOSE ARE ALL REASONS WHY THE RUSSELL HASN'T WORKED. AND, I GUESS, YOU KNOW, OUR POINT TO INVESTORS, YOU KNOW, AS WE KIND OF THINK ABOUT WHAT COULD BE THAT CATALYST FOR A MOVE, IS THAT ABSOLUTE PARTICIPATION MORE IMPORTANT THAN RELATIVE LEADERSHIP? WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IS THIS LARGE CAP LED MOVE TO THE UPSIDE, AND I'M OKAY WITH THAT. BUT WE DO NEED SMALL CAPS TO PARTICIPATE IN ABSOLUTE PRICE TERMS. >> SO ARI, DOESN'T SOUND LIKE YOU'RE SEEING ANY SIGNS OF A MARKET TOP NOW. AND YOU'RE ACTUALLY SEEING HIGHER HIGHS HERE ON THE HORIZON. I'M CURIOUS THOUGH, FOR INVESTORS OUT THERE WHO WANT TO BE PREPARED FOR SOME OF THE, PATTERNS OR TRENDS THAT THEY WOULD SEE IF A MARKET WAS NEARING ITS HIGHS. WHAT DO YOU NORMALLY LOOK OUT FOR JUST IN TERMS OF GAUGING WHETHER OR NOT WE ARE APPROACHING THOSE HIGH LEVELS? >> SURE, WE HAVE A OUR MARKET TOP CHECKLIST. WHAT WE'D BE EXPECTING TO SEE OR CREDIT SPREADS BEGINNING TO WIDEN. WE EXPECT TO SEE THE LEADERSHIP OF THE MARKET TURN MORE DEFENSIVE, AND WE'D EXPECT TO SEE INTERNAL BREADTH BEGIN TO NARROW. AND WE REALLY HAVEN'T SEEN ANY OF THAT. AND ONE INDICATOR IN PARTICULAR, WE WATCH CLOSELY TO SUGGEST THAT WE COULD BE GETTING TO THAT MARKET TOP CONDITION. IT'S AN INTERNAL BREADTH METRIC. IT MEASURES THE PERCENTAGE OF NYSE STOCKS THAT ARE TRADING ABOVE THEIR 200 DAY AVERAGE. AND WHAT WE HAVE FOUND LOOKING AT MOST OF THE MAJOR MARKET TOPS OVER THE PAST 20 PLUS YEARS, IS THAT THERE WILL BE A NEW S&P HIGH, AND IT'S UNDERMINED BY FEWER THAN 60% OF THE NYSE ABOVE THEIR 200 DAY AVERAGE. AND FOR THAT REASON, WE ARE ENCOURAGED THAT THAT CURRENT READING IS COMING OFF A LEVEL OF 68. SO THAT IS ARGUING AGAINST A MARKET TOP. IT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MARKET CONDITIONS ARE STRONGER THAN THAT. AND BUT CONVERSELY, IT WOULD BE SOMETHING WE'RE GOING TO BE WATCHING FOR. LOOKING AHEAD TO SUGGEST WE ARE AT THAT REVERSAL POINT, OFTEN THAT HAPPENS IN THE POST-ELECTION YEAR, IN THE THIRD YEAR OF A BULL MARKET CYCLE. 70% OF THESE UPTRENDS TYPICALLY MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THEIR TWO YEAR ANNIVERSARY, SO WITH OUR INDICATORS CURRENTLY CONFIRMING THE ROADMAP, YOU KNOW, ALL SIGNS POINT TO ADDITIONAL GAINS AS WE THINK ABOUT THE BALANCE OF THE YEAR. >> SO FOR SEEING ADDITIONAL GAINS AHEAD, I WONDER IF YOU STILL THINK THE SELL IN MAY NARRATIVE IS GOING TO COME TRUE. AS WE HEAD TO THE END OF THE MONTH THIS WEEK, ONE OF MY FAVORITE TECHNICAL PHRASES SELLING MAY AND GO AWAY. IT DIDN'T SEEM TO HAPPEN THIS YEAR IS THAT BECAUSE OF NVIDIA, OR IS IT BECAUSE OF JUST MOMENTUM BRINGING MOMENTUM? WHAT IS THAT? >> YEAH, IT'S, IT'S A STRATEGY THAT WE ALWAYS TALK ABOUT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, SOMETHING THAT NO ONE HAS ACTUALLY EVER PUT TO USE. NOBODY HAS EVER ACTUALLY SOLD. EVERY APRIL 30TH AND BOUGHT BACK, EVERY OCTOBER 31ST. AND THERE'S SOME NUANCE TO THAT AS WELL. AND SOMETIMES WE THINK ABOUT THE FOUR YEAR US ELECTION CYCLE AND HOW THAT OVERLAYS WITH THAT TYPE OF STRATEGY AND WHAT WE FOUND THAT IN, IN AN ELECTION YEAR SPECIFIC ONE WITH AN INCUMBENT CANDIDATE, TYPICALLY THAT STRATEGY HASN'T WORKED, THAT YOU'LL TYPICALLY SEE A SUMMERTIME RALLY. WE CAME INTO THE YEAR SHOWING THAT, WHEN IN AN ELECTION YEAR, A FIRST TERM, ELECTION YEAR, MARCH TO MAY IS THE WEAKEST THREE MONTH STRETCH OF THE YEAR, BUT THEN THAT'S TYPICALLY FOLLOWED BY THE BEST PERFORMING STRETCH OF THE YEAR, JUNE THROUGH AUGUST, WHICH WE'RE NOW ENTERING IN. SO WE'RE ALMOST MAKING WE ARE MAKING THE CASE THAT SEASONALS ARE A TAILWIND. LOOKING AHEAD, AT LEAST AS WE GET INTO THAT JUNE PERIOD. AND SO FOR ALL THOSE REASONS WHY WE'RE LOOKING TO BUY WEAKNESS AND NOT SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY, ARI WALD, GREAT TO TALK TO YOU. >> THANKS SO MUCH FOR YOUR INSIGHT HERE THIS MORNING. OPPENHEIMER IS HEAD OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. THANKS AGAIN. THANK YOU. WELL, ACTIVIST HEDGE FUND ELLIOTT HAS MADE A TWO AND A HALF DOLLARS BILLION INVESTMENT IN THE SEMICONDUCTOR COMPANY TEXAS INSTRUMENTS. AS PART OF THIS ELLIOTT IS PROPOSING WHAT IT CALLS A, QUOTE, DYNAMIC CAPACITY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY THAT WOULD ALLOW THE COMPANY TO ACHIEVE FREE CASH FLOW OF AS MUCH AS $9 A SHARE BY 2026. LET'S TAKE A STEP BACK AND TALK ABOUT WHY THEY'RE PRIORITIZING FREE CASH FLOW WHEN IT COMES TO GROWTH PER SHARE, BECAUSE THIS HAS BEEN A PRIORITY. WE'VE HEARD IT FROM TEXAS INSTRUMENTS, FROM THEIR EXECUTIVES IN YEARS PAST. AND WHEN IT COMES TO WHAT ELLIOTT HAS SAID IS THAT WHEN THEY HAVE PRIORITIZED THIS, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU LOOK BACK AT SOME OF THE RETURNS THAT THEY GENERATED FROM 2006 THROUGH 2019, THEY SAY THAT TEXAS INSTRUMENTS GREW THEIR FREE CASH FLOW PER SHARE AT AN ANNUAL RATE OF 17, WHILE ITS STOCK GENERATED A 440% TOTAL RETURN. SINCE, THOUGH RAMPING CAPACITY. SO WHAT HAS PLAYED OUT OVER THE LAST TWO ISH YEARS, SINCE 2022 IS FREE CASH FLOW PER SHARE HAS ACTUALLY DECLINED BY MORE THAN 75. SO ELLIOTT MAKING THE CASE THAT THEY WANT THEM TO PRIORITIZE THIS, THEY LAID OUT THE PROPOSITION HERE OF A TEXAS INSTRUMENTS ADOPTING THAT DYNAMIC CAPACITY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY, WHICH WE JUST MENTIONED, INTRODUCING A FREE CASH FLOW PER SHARE TARGET OF $9 IN 2026. WE BRING THIS UP BECAUSE ELLIOTT, GIVEN HIS TRACK RECORD, GIVEN THE CHANGES THAT THEY HAVE ADVOCATED FOR AT VARIOUS COMPANIES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS, A LOT OF TIMES WHEN ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT COMES INTO THE ROOM AND TAKES A POSITION LIKE THIS, MANY OF THE COMPANIES, MANY OF THE MANY OF THE EXECUTIVES, DO SIT UP A BIT AND LISTEN TO WHAT THEY HAVE TO SAY. THEY PAY ATTENTION. THEY'RE OFTEN HEARD IN THE ROOM. SO AGAIN, THIS IS SIGNIFICANT. WE'RE NOT SEEING A HUGE IMPACT ON THE SHARE PRICE RIGHT NOW UP JUST ABOUT 4/10 OF A PERCENT. BUT AGAIN THEY'RE ADVOCATING TO A RETURN OF WHAT HAVE BEEN THE PRIORITY HERE OF TEXAS INSTRUMENTS OR WHAT HAVE BEEN PROVEN PERFORMANCE OF TEXAS INSTRUMENTS FOR OVER A DECADE. AND THAT WAS THAT FREE CASH FLOW PER SHARE GROWTH AT AN ANNUAL RATE OF 17. >> YEAH, IT'S A GREAT POINT SEANA PARTICULARLY WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE STOCK STILL UP. BUT PARING BACK SOME GAINS. IT WAS UP A LITTLE OVER 3% EARLIER TODAY IN THIS STATEMENT THEY NOTE THAT INVESTORS ARE CONCERNED THAT THE COMPANY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVIATED FROM THAT COMMITMENT TO FREE CASH FLOW. SO THAT IS THE KEY DATA POINT TO WATCH WHEN IT COMES TO TEXAS INSTRUMENTS. ALSO, A REMINDER THAT THIS IS THE CHIPS COMPANY THAT'S GOING TO PROVIDE THE CHIPS, THE GO AND THINGS LIKE CALCULATORS, REFRIGERATORS, SOME OF THAT MACHINERY AS OPPOSED TO SOME OF THE AI POWERING CHIPS THAT YOU HEAR ABOUT FROM AN NVIDIA. AND THESE SPECIFIC CHIPS HAVE BEEN LAGGING WHEN IT COMES TO DEMAND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS. HERE IT HAS BEEN KIND OF PART OF THE INDUSTRY THAT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING AS PART OF A WIDER SLUMP IN CHIP ORDERS IN RECENT MONTHS, THOUGH THEIR LATEST EARNINGS DO INDICATE A RESUMPTION IN SOME OF THAT ORDERING OF CHIPS AFTER WORKING THROUGH SOME OF THOSE GLUTS. SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT THIS LATEST ACTIVIST STAKE IN THE COMPANY STARTS TO KIND OF FUEL A LITTLE BIT MORE GROWTH MOVING FORWARD HERE FOR TI. NOW MOVING OVER TO AIRBNB UP SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AFTER WEDBUSH UPDATED ITS PRICE TARGET FROM 160 TO 165, WITH THE RATING GOING FROM NEUTRAL TO OUTPERFORM. NOW, THE REASONING THEY'RE CITING THAT INVESTORS SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE COMPANY'S CURRENT PERIOD OF RELATIVE WEAKNESS, AND WE HAVE SEEN A PERIOD OF RELATIVE WEAKNESS WHEN IT COMES TO THE AIRBNB PICTURE HERE. THIS UPGRADE COMING AFTER WEDBUSH NOTED THAT AIRBNB HAS HAD STRONG WEB TRAFFIC GROWTH THROUGHOUT THE QUARTER AND COMMENTARY FROM OTHER COMPETITORS IN THIS SPACE. LOOKING AT A COMPANY LIKE TRIP.COM, EVEN NORWEGIAN SIGNALING HEALTHY DEMAND FOR CONSUMERS. BUT MY QUESTION IS, IS THE WEB TRAFFIC FOR AIRBNB GOING TO TRANSLATE OVER TO REVENUE? THAT IS THE BIG THING TO WATCH FOR A COMPANY LIKE AIRBNB, OBVIOUSLY UP OFF OF THIS NEWS, BUT THEY HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN STRUGGLING WHEN YOU COMPARE THEM TO THE GROWTH STORY THAT THEY'VE HAD IN RECENT YEARS, ARE THEY GOING TO BE ABLE TO PICK THAT UP AS CONSUMERS ARE GETTING TIRED OF SOME OF THOSE HIDDEN FEES AND TRANSITIONING OVER TO MORE HOTEL PURCHASING AS WELL? YEAH, EXACTLY. >> AND I ALSO THINK IT'S THIS RETURN TO NORMAL. RIGHT. WE HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN SO MUCH PENT UP DEMAND. PEOPLE HAD THIS FLEXIBILITY OF WORK FROM ANYWHERE OVER THE LAST FOUR YEARS, AND EVEN OF THE HEADLINES THAT HAVE BEEN COMING OUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, MORE AND MORE COMPANIES, EVEN MORE BANKS MANDATING THIS RETURN TO OFFICE. SO YOU NO LONGER HAVE THIS FLEXIBILITY, OR AT LEAST AS MUCH FLEXIBILITY MANY WORKERS AS THEY HAD HAD OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. AND THAT IS SOMETHING I BRING THAT UP BECAUSE IT'S SOMETHING THAT WE HAD TALKED TO AIRBNB CEO ABOUT TIME AND TIME AGAIN IN YAHOO FINANCE IS ONE OF THE DRIVING FACTORS DRIVING, REALLY DRIVERS OF THEIR BUSINESS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS IS THIS THE ABILITY TO WORK FROM ANYWHERE AND PEOPLE THEN TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THAT AND BOOKING LONGER-TERM STAYS AT AIRBNB. BUT BEYOND THAT, I THINK THIS RETURN TO NORMAL IS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN PLAY OUT IN AIRBNB'S MOST RECENT RESULTS, THEIR LACKLUSTER EARNINGS REPORT THAT THEY DID JUST REPORT SCOTT DAVID, AT LEAST VIEWING THIS AS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY. BUT AGAIN, THE QUESTION LIKE YOU JUST BROUGHT OUT HOW MUCH OF THIS SEARCH IN TERMS OF THAT ACTIVITY? YES, IT IS STRONG WHEN IT COMES TO AIRBNB. HOW MUCH IS THAT OF THAT IS ACTUALLY GOING TO TRANSLATE INTO ACTUAL BOOKINGS? YES. MAYBE THEY COULD SEE A BUMP IN THIS CURRENT QUARTER. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE THIRD QUARTER, EVEN WHEN WE TALK ABOUT SOME OF THE TRENDS THAT WE LIKELY SEE IN THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY. BUT AGAIN, YOU GOT A QUESTION. JUST WHAT THAT RETURN TO NORMAL LOOKS LIKE. AND WHAT THE REAL DEMAND IS GOING TO BE HERE FOR AIRBNB MOVING FORWARD AND BEYOND. JUST THE US IS ALSO OBVIOUSLY AN INTERNATIONAL STORY. SO THEN ALSO THE BOOKINGS THAT THEY'RE SEEING ON AN INTERNATIONAL BASIS IS ANOTHER FOCAL POINT AS WELL FOR ANALYSTS. >> I THINK IT'S A GREAT POINT, THOUGH, IS THE COVID RECOVERY FINALLY KIND OF WRAPPING UP. AND WHAT IMPACT DOES THAT HAVE ON SOME OF THESE CONSUMER NAMES? ANOTHER ONE IN TERMS OF SERVICES AND PURCHASING FROM CONSUMERS. CRUISE LINE STOCKS RISING THIS MORNING ON AN UPWARD TREND. THIS IS ONE MONTH AFTER VIKING HOLDINGS DID DEBUT ON THE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, THE VIKING IPO, RAISING $1.5 BILLION, MAKING IT THE LARGEST PUBLIC OFFERING SINCE LAST SEPTEMBER. ON THE EXCHANGE. NOW NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINES ALSO HIKING ITS OUTLOOK ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ITS INVESTOR DAY PRESENTATION THAT WE'RE GOING TO BE GETTING OUT LATER THIS WEEK. I DO WANT TO JUST TAKE A QUICK LOOK AT HOW VIKING HAS BEEN DOING SINCE THAT IPO DATE, TAKING A LOOK AT THIS STOCK HERE. IT'S STILL UP ON THE DAY. IT'S LOOKING LIKE IT'S UP ABOUT 1.5. SO GOOD MOVE FOR THEM. AND THEN YEAR TO DATE THEY'RE ALSO UP AS WELL. TAKING A LOOK AT THE ONE YEAR THAT STOCK IS UP 15% HERE. >> SEANA WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE ARGUMENTS BEING MADE AT LEAST OUT HERE WHEN IT COMES TO NORWEGIAN FROM MIZUHO. THEY RAISED THEIR OUTLOOK HERE TO BUY ON THAT UPGRADED GUIDANCE THAT WE ARE GETTING FROM NORWEGIAN. SO I THINK GOING FORWARD JUST WHETHER OR NOT THE TREND THAT WE HAVE SEEN WITHIN MANY OF THESE CRUISE LINES, BECAUSE AGAIN, MANY OF THEM SHOWING THAT THEY ARE CUTTING COSTS, THEY'RE LOOKING TO CAPITALIZE ON THAT GREATER THAN EXPECTED DEMAND IN TERMS OF BOOKINGS, THEIR BOOKINGS EVEN GOING OUT TO THE REST OF 2024 INTO 2025. SOME OF THE COMMENTARY THAT WE'VE GOTTEN OUT FROM NORWEGIAN AND ITS COMPETITORS HERE IN THE MOST RECENT EARNINGS RESULTS, POINTING TO THE FACT THAT DEMAND WILL LIKELY STAY STRONG HERE FOR QUARTERS TO COME. BUT EXACTLY WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE BUSINESS GOING FORWARD, AND THE ABILITY HERE TO OFFSET SOME OF THE HIGHER COSTS THAT THEY ARE SEEING ON THE INFLATION FRONT IS SOMETHING THAT INVESTORS AND ANALYSTS HAVE REALLY BEEN DIVING DEEP INTO HERE. BUT AGAIN, RAISED OUTLOOK FROM NORWEGIAN MIZUHO AT LEAST SAYING THAT THAT'S ENOUGH TO RAISE THEIR OUTLOOK ON THE STOCK TO BUY. >> AND JP MORGAN ALSO SETTING THEIR SHARE TARGET FOR VIKING HOLDINGS AS OF THIS MORNING AS WELL PUTTING A PRICE TARGET OF $34 ON THE FIRM. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE ALL OF YOUR MARKETS ACTION AHEAD, SO STAY TUNED RIGHT HERE ON YAHOO FINANCE. YOU'RE WATCHING CATALYSTS. LET'S DO A QUICK CHECK OF THE MARKETS HERE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NASDAQ IS BREAKING ABOVE 17,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER. AT LEAST THEY JUST DID. MOMENTS AGO. LOOKING LIKE IT'S COMING OFF OF THOSE HIGHS A LITTLE BIT, BUT STILL UP 3/10 OF A PERCENT. LARGELY DRIVEN BY NVIDIA CONTINUING TO RISE. IT'S UP 3.3% FOLLOWING THEIR EARNINGS DRIVEN RALLY HERE. AND THAT IS NO DOUBT DRIVING THE TECH HEAVY NASDAQ FORWARD A LITTLE BIT. YOU CAN SEE THAT THE NASDAQ OUTPACING THE S&P, WHICH IS JUST ABOUT FLAT IN THE DOW JUST TRENDING BELOW THE FLAT LINE AS WELL. SO WE'LL SEE IF WE CROSS THAT 17,000 MARK AGAIN FOR TODAY ON THE S&P. NOW MOVING TO OIL. GLOBAL OIL PRICES ARE UP A LITTLE BIT THIS MORNING. YOU CAN SEE WTI CRUDE UP OVER 2% AND BRANT CRUDE UP OVER 2% AS WELL. NOW THOSE MOVES TO THE UPSIDE COMING AHEAD OF OPEC'S JUNE 2ND MEETING WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OIL SUPPLY CURBS AS WELL AS CONTINUE TO FUEL HOPES FOR STRONGER DEMAND FOR OIL IN THE U.S. TO COME OVER THE SUMMER MONTHS. FOR MORE, WE'RE GOING TO WELCOME IN MARTIN RATS. HE IS MORGAN STANLEY'S CHIEF COMMODITIES STRATEGIST. MARTIN, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE WITH US THIS MORNING. I KNOW THAT IT'S NOT NECESSARILY THAT OPEC IS GOING TO BE DRIVING PRICES MOVING FORWARD. GIVEN WHAT WE EXPECT TO GET FROM THIS JUNE 2ND MEETING HERE, WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE SINGLE BIGGEST CATALYST THEN THAT IS GOING TO IMPACT PRICES? AND HOW HIGH DO YOU SEE THOSE PRICES GETTING? >> YEAH, THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. I WOULDN'T DISMISS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE OPEC MEETING IN TERMS OF PRICES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS, NEXT FEW MONTHS, WE'VE NOW SETTLED INTO OPEC MEETING SORT OF TWICE A YEAR DURING COVID. THEY WERE EVERY MONTH. BUT WE'RE BACK TO, ONCE EVERY SIX MONTHS. SO THESE MEETINGS ARE KIND OF SORT OF FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT OPEC WILL EXTEND, THE PRODUCTION CUTS, BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT IT WILL NOT, IF IT WILL NOT, THE PRICE COULD FALL, QUITE A BIT AND SORT OF WITH THAT, WITH THAT PROSPECT AHEAD, AS FAR AS WE CAN SEE, THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF DE-RISKING INTO THE OPEC MEETING PEOPLE, TAKING SOME CHIPS OFF THE TABLE JUST TO KIND OF AVOID AND AVOID THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE OPEC MEETING. IF OPEC SIMPLY DOES WHAT WE BROADLY EXPECT THEM TO DO, I WOULD SUSPECT, PRICES CAN RALLY BACK IF YOU THEN OVERLAY THAT, AS YOU RIGHTLY POINT OUT, WITH THE SEASONAL TRENDS IN OIL DEMAND, WE SHOULD REALLY BE QUITE POWERFUL FROM HERE ON BETWEEN SORT OF MAY AND AUGUST. YOU SAID YOU TYPICALLY SEE GLOBAL OIL DEMAND RALLY A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN 3 MILLION BARRELS A DAY, THEN, THE COMBINATION OF FLAT OPEC PRODUCTION, SEASONAL STRENGTH AND DEMAND SHOULD LEAD INVENTORIES TO START DRAWING THE CURVE TO MOVE DEEPER INTO BACKWARDATION AND PRICES TO RALLY. WE THINK TO SOMETHING IN THE ORDER OF 90 BUCKS AGAIN, GOING BACK, THOUGH, TO WHAT YOU JUST SAID A MOMENT AGO, JUST THAT WE SHOULDN'T DISMISS EXACTLY WHAT THE OUTCOME OF THIS OPEC MEETING IS GOING TO BE IF THEY DON'T EXTEND THE CUTS AND WE DO SEE THEN FURTHER PRESSURE ON THE PRICE OF OIL. >> HOW LOW DO YOU THINK PRICES COULD POTENTIALLY FALL, YEAH THAT'S A GOOD ONE, LOOK OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME, THOSE THINGS ARE EXTRAORDINARILY, DIFFICULT TO FORECAST, BUT WHAT I WOULD SAY IS THAT IF YOU, START TO THINK ABOUT STRUCTURALLY PRICES SAY BELOW $75, BRANT, IT GETS VERY DIFFICULT TO, TO, TO STAY THERE FOR A VERY LONG PERIOD OF TIME IN A SORT OF, YOU KNOW, TEMPORARY SHOCK TYPE OF MOMENT. OF COURSE, YOU KNOW, WE CAN FALL, WE CAN FALL LOWER THAN THAT. BUT, THE MARGINAL BARREL IN THE OIL INDUSTRY IS STILL US SHALE. IF YOU START TO THINK $75. BRANT, THAT IS ABOUT $70 WTI, $70 WTI, A QUARTER OF US SHALE DOESN'T WORK, AND SO THERE YOU THEN START TO FIND A BIT OF A FLOOR. SO I WOULD SAY SHORT TERM HARD TO KNOW, BUT THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUPPORT LEVEL AROUND THE SORT OF $75 BRANT MARK, IF THERE'S A SUPPORT LEVEL AROUND THAT 75 BENCHMARK, THEN TO WHAT EXTENT DOES DEMAND, DRIVEN BY THE SUMMER MONTHS IMPACT THAT POTENTIAL NUMBER? WELL, SUMMER DEMAND IS VERY IMPORTANT IN THE OIL MARKET IS NOT TIGHT RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW. BUT, BETWEEN SORT OF APRIL, MAY AND SORT OF THE AUGUST, SEPTEMBER TIME FRAME, YOU TYPICALLY GET SORT OF THREE, 3.5 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF SEASONAL DEMAND UPSWING, THEN REFINERS NEED TO RUN HARDER, THEY ARE COMING OUT OF MAINTENANCE AS WE SPEAK. SO IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS, REFINERY CRUDE RUNS WILL GO UP BY A SIMILAR AMOUNT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS, WE'VE BEEN SLIGHTLY BUILDING INVENTORIES IN THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET BY IN THE ORDER OF SORT OF A MILLION BARRELS A DAY. THAT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WE HAD MODELED. YOU KNOW, IT'S NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF OVERSUPPLY, BUT NEVERTHELESS SOME INVENTORY BUILDS. BUT OF COURSE, IF YOU THEN GO INTO THE SUMMER AND YOU GET THAT 3 MILLION BARREL A DAY TAILWIND, YEAH, THEN YOU KNOW, LIKE A MILLION BARRELS A DAY, BUILDS CAN TURN INTO A 2 MILLION BARREL A DAY STOCK DRAW FOR THE THIRD QUARTER. AND THAT IS QUITE , THAT WOULD BE QUITE A PUNCHY LEVEL OF STOCK DRAW. SO IN THE THIRD QUARTER, WE DO SEE QUITE A TIGHT MARKET GETTING US TO THAT $90 A BARREL LEVEL. WE NEED TO GET THE OPEC MEETING OUT OF THE WAY. BUT AS SOON AS THAT IS DONE AND SEASONAL DEMAND KICKS IN, I THINK THAT PROSPECT IS THERE JUST ABOUT BECAUSE YOU HAVE TWO CHARTS. >> I'M LOOKING AT YOUR MOST RECENT NOTE HERE, TALKING ABOUT WHAT'S UNDERPINNING DEMAND HERE, UNDERPINNED BY FLIGHT SCHEDULES AND CAPACITY EXPANSION, TO WHAT EXTENT, I GUESS, IS THAT DRIVING THE DEMAND STORY. AND I GUESS HOW BIG OF DRIVERS DO YOU SEE THAT BEING EVEN JUST BEYOND THE NEAR-TERM FOCUS HERE FOR OIL, YEAH, IT'S BEEN QUITE INTERESTING WHAT'S HAPPENING TO OIL DEMAND, IN, IN 2024, MOST OF THE SORT OF THE RESEARCH COMMUNITY WOULD PUT OIL DEMAND GROWTH THIS YEAR AT SOMETHING LIKE 1.4, 1.5 MILLION BARRELS A DAY, THAT IS ABOVE THE HISTORICAL TREND RATE OF GROWTH, WHICH IS IN THE ORDER OF 1.2 MILLION BARRELS A DAY. NOW, THE REASON WHY THAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT THIS IS REALLY THE FIRST YEAR WHERE WE CAN TALK ABOUT OIL DEMAND NOT BEING IMPACTED MUCH BY POST-COVID RECOVERY. WE'VE HAD A COUPLE OF YEARS OF TREMENDOUS OIL DEMAND GROWTH NORTH OF 2 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN 21, 22, 23, BUT THAT WAS JUST POST COVID RECOVERY THAT IS NOW BEHIND US. AND AS SOON AS THAT WAS BEHIND US, WE THOUGHT WE WOULD BE WORRIED ABOUT ELECTRIC VEHICLES, ENERGY TRANSITION, DECARBONIZATION AND THAT THOSE EFFORTS WOULD DRIVE OIL DEMAND STILL TO GROW FOR SOME TIME. BUT A RATE BELOW HISTORIC TREND. AND WHAT WE'RE ACTUALLY FINDING IS THAT THIS YEAR WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A YEAR OF OIL DEMAND GROWTH ABOVE HISTORIC TREND, DESPITE POST-COVID RECOVERY DONE . AND I THINK THAT STARTS TO SAY SOMETHING ABOUT 25 AND 26 THAT OIL DEMAND CAN CONTINUE TO GROW AT QUITE A DECENT PACE, FOR SOME TIME TO COME. AND THE STRENGTH IN OIL DEMAND GROWTH IS REMARKABLE, BECAUSE IT'S NOT BECAUSE THE RENEWABLES ARE DISAPPOINTING. THE RENEWABLES ARE RACING AHEAD, ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES ARE GROWING. THE ENERGY TRANSITION IS GAINING PACE. AND YET PEOPLE CONTINUE TO BUY OIL. THESE ENERGY DEMAND IS SIMPLY STRONG FOR ALL FORMS OF ENERGY. >> ALL RIGHT MARTIN MORGAN STANLEY'S A CHIEF COMMODITY STRATEGIST. THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING US HERE THIS MORNING. >> THANK YOU. >> TESLA SHAREHOLDERS ARE SET TO VOTE ON CEO ELON MUSK'S $56 BILLION PAY PACKAGE. THAT'S ON JUNE 13TH. WELL, THERE'S A GROUP OF SHAREHOLDERS ENCOURAGING OTHERS TO VOTE AGAINST IT. SOME NEW DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE STORY ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE. ROMANIAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE LATEST DETAILS ON THAT PRIZE. WHAT ARE WE LEARNING. >> HEY SEANA. SO GLASS LEWIS THE PROXY SHAREHOLDER ADVISORY FIRM IS SAYING THAT SHAREHOLDERS SHOULD VOTE NO TO FOR TESLA. AND MUSK'S IN PARTICULAR FOR MOVING TESLA. STATE OF INCORPORATION TO TEXAS TO TEXAS BUT ALSO FOR MUSK'S $56 BILLION PAY PACKAGE. THE GROUP IS CONCERNED THAT THE PAY PACKAGE WILL SORT OF DILUTE EXISTING SHAREHOLDERS, STAKES IN TESLA AND THAT IT WOULD MAKE TESLA MAKE MUST BE THE NUMBER ONE LARGEST SHAREHOLDER BY BY QUITE A HEALTHY MARGIN. AND THE BOARD HAS NOT PROVIDED RATIONALE TO SORT OF COMBAT THESE CONCERNS OF OVERLY SORT OF DILUTIVE NATURE OF THE, OF THE NEW PAY PACKAGE. SO THAT'S A CONCERN THERE. I'M NOT WE'RE NOT SURPRISED THAT GLASS LEWIS WOULD SAY, HEY SHAREHOLDERS, YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS. WE PROBABLY DON'T WANT THIS FOR US TO HAVE THAT MUCH CONTROL OVER THE COMPANY. AND I THINK THAT IT SORT OF MAKES YOU THINK ABOUT RIGHT NOW AND FROM LIKE A GOVERNANCE POINT OF VIEW, WHO IS THE BOARD REALLY WORKING FOR? I THINK THAT'S WHAT'S THAT'S WHAT GLASS LEWIS IS SAYING. IS IT WORKING FOR THE SHAREHOLDERS OR FOR MUSK, WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS LATER IN JUNE WHEN THE SHAREHOLDER VOTE HAPPENS. CURRENTLY, MUSK HAS A LITTLE LESS THAN 13% OF THE TOTAL SHAREHOLDING OF TESLA CURRENTLY RIGHT NOW. >> ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU SO MUCH. AS ALWAYS FOR BRINGING US THAT NEWS THIS MORNING. REALLY APPRECIATE IT. NOW COMING UP, OPENAI IS LAUNCHING A NEW SECURITY COMMITTEE. WE'RE GOING TO DIVE INTO WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE INDUSTRY AFTER THE BREAK. OPENAI IS FORMING A SAFETY AND SECURITY COMMITTEE LED BY BOARD MEMBERS, INCLUDING ITS CEO, SAM ALTMAN. THE COMMITTEE WILL MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE BOARD ON SAFETY AND SECURITY DECISIONS FOR THE COMPANY'S PROJECTS AND OPERATIONS. NOW THIS DOES COME AFTER SCARLETT JOHANSSON ACCUSED THE COMPANY OF USING A VOICE THAT SOUNDED A LOT LIKE HERS FOR ITS LATEST CHATBOT. IN THAT CONVERSATION, COMING AFTER HER AND SAM ALTMAN HAD SPOKEN PREVIOUSLY, SHE HAD EXPRESSED THAT SHE DID NOT NECESSARILY HAVE INTEREST IN THAT HAPPENING. AND THEN IT TURNS OUT THAT A VOICE THAT WAS VERY SIMILAR TO HERS DID GET USED. BUT IT'S INTERESTING TO SEE THE FORMATION OF THIS NEW SAFETY TEAM. SEANA FOLLOWING A LOT OF THE VOLATILITY THAT WE HAVE SEEN AT THE COMPANY, PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE SAFETY CONCERNS THAT LED TO THE SHORT TERM OUSTING OF CEO SAM ALTMAN. NOW HE IS REINSTITUTING THIS NEW SAFETY TEAM. AND THIS HAS BEEN A CONCERN FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO ARE INVOLVED IN THE AI SPACE, PARTICULARLY RESEARCHERS AND OF COURSE, THEIR CO-FOUNDER AND CHIEF SCIENTIST WHO HAS NOW DEPARTED FROM THE COMPANY. >> YEAH, I KNOW, MADDIE, YOU'VE BEEN TALKING TO A NUMBER OF YOUR SOURCES AND A COUPLE OF THEM HAVE MENTIONED JUST THE SAFETY ASPECT OF THIS, RIGHT? AND JUST SOME OF THE UNKNOWNS THERE AND WHY THAT BRINGS SO MUCH RISK HERE TO THE FUTURE OF AI TECHNOLOGY AND REALLY MORE BROAD BASED, EVEN OUTSIDE WITHIN THIS INDUSTRY, JUST JUST THE RISKS AT LARGE RIGHT NOW, WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT AI ADOPTION AND EXACTLY WHAT THAT IS GOING TO ENTAIL AND WHAT THAT LOOKS LIKE HERE OVER THE FUTURE YEARS TO COME. BUT AGAIN, THIS NEW COMMITTEE IS GOING TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MAKING RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE BOARD ON SAFETY. OBVIOUSLY. ALSO, SECURITY DECISIONS FOR OPEN AI'S PROJECTS AND ITS OPERATIONS, IN ADDITION TO SAM ALTMAN, THEY HAVE A COUPLE OF OTHER DIRECTORS THAT WILL ALSO BE PART OF THE LEADERSHIP OF THAT COMMITTEE. BRETT TAYLOR, ONE OF THEM, ADAM D'ANGELO, AS WELL AS NICOLE SELIGMAN. SO AGAIN, THIS IS POSTED IN THE COMPANY'S BLOG HERE. AND YOU GOT A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAS AN ANSWER TO SOME OF THOSE CONCERNS THAT WERE VOICED PRETTY LOUDLY LAST WEEK AS WE GOT NEWS OF THE DISBANDING THAT THEY DID HAVE OF THEIR SAFETY TEAM. BUT AGAIN, EXACTLY WHAT THIS ENTAILS. WE WILL HOPE TO LEARN MORE JUST A BIT. BUT AGAIN, SOME OF THOSE SAFETY CONCERNS ABOUT AI MODELS AS THEY BECOME MORE AND MORE POWERFUL, IS SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT NOW FOR QUITE SOME TIME. ABSOLUTELY. >> AND AN INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WELL. WELL, CEOS ARE PRIORITIZING THE AI TRANSFORMATION AS THEY LOOK TO BOOST PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWTH IN THE COMING QUARTERS. THAT IS ACCORDING TO A NEW SURVEY OUT FROM ERNST AND YOUNG LOOKING AT CEO SENTIMENT, ABOUT 47% ARE FOCUSED ON AI TRANSFER STATION. SO JOINING US NOW WITH FURTHER INSIGHT INTO HOW EXECUTIVES ARE FEELING ABOUT THE FUTURE, WE'VE GOT ANDREA GUERZONI. HE IS GLOBAL VICE CHAIR OF STRATEGY AND TRANSACTIONS. AND ANDREA, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE WITH US TO TALK THROUGH THIS SURVEY. I AM CURIOUS, YOU HAD SO MUCH DATA RANGING FROM, YOU KNOW, HOW CEOS ARE FEELING ABOUT THE BROADER MARKET AND HOW THEY'RE FEELING ABOUT AI, ESG TALK TO ME ABOUT THE SINGLE BIGGEST DATA POINT THAT TO YOU INDICATED THAT CEOS ARE FEELING MORE OPTIMISTIC MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE YEAR HERE THAN THEY HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY. >> HELLO, EVERYBODY, AND THANKS. THANKS FOR HOSTING ME, YES. I THINK THE MOST, PROBABLY NOTICEABLE PIECE OF INFORMATION THAT WE HAVE BEEN GATHERING THROUGH OUR CEO OUTLOOK SURVEY, IT'S REALLY THE FACT THAT THAT, THERE IS, SOME SORT OF, UNDER STANDING THAT, THE COMPLEXITIES THAT HAVE CHARACTERIZED THE LAST 18 MONTHS IN TERMS OF, GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INTEREST RATES AND, AND THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGY, INCLUDING AI. I MEAN, SOMETHING THAT THEY HAVE TO LIVE WITH IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SO THERE IS A I THINK THAT SENSE OF, UNDERSTANDING THAT THIS IS THE FUTURE AND THAT THEY NEED REALLY TO COPE WITH THIS LEVEL OF COMPLEXITY, WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT AN INCREASED LEVEL OF OPTIMISM. ACCORDING TO OUR SURVEYS, SURVEY, ACTUALLY, MORE THAN 60% OF THE CEOS, ARE ACTUALLY, THINKING THAT THERE IS AN IMPROVEMENT IN, IN THE LEVEL OF THEIR REVENUES AND, AND 65, ACTUALLY, THEY THINK THAT THE PROFITABILITY IS GOING TO GO UP NEXT YEAR. SO I THINK DESPITE, AND THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT, AND THERE IS, AN INCREASING LEVEL OF OPTIMISM THAT IS SOMEHOW, UNUS ANDREA, BEYOND AI AND SOME OF THE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES THERE. >> WHAT ELSE DO YOU ATTRIBUTE THAT OPTIMISM TO? >> I THINK IT'S REALLY, THE, THE, THE REALIZATION THAT, BY MANAGING THIS COMPLEXITY, THEY CAN ACTUALLY ACHIEVE, GREAT RESULTS AND, THE FOCUS ON COST CUTTING, ON REDUCING THE COMPLEXITY OF THE BUSINESS, RATIONALIZING THE PORTFOLIOS, OF THEIR, CORPORATES. I MEAN, IT'S THE RIGHT STRATEGY, REALLY, TO GET TO THE SAME RESULT. AND THEY THEY USED TO IN THE PAST AND REALLY DEALING WITH THIS COMPLEXITY AND THE IMPACT OF AI IN PARTICULAR, CAN BE MASSIVE IN TERMS OF, INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY AND ENSURING THAT ACTUALLY AND THE BOTTOM LINE IS IN LINE WITH, ANALYSTS EXPECTATIONS. AND THE LAST 12 MONTHS ACTUALLY HAVE DEMONSTRATED THAT THE AI CAN, CAN REALLY BE A GAME CHANGER IN THIS RESPECT. AND PROBABLY THIS IS JUST THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG. I THINK THE MORE SOPHISTICATED CORPORATIONS ARE LOOKING AT AI, NOT JUST THAT, IN TERMS OF PRODUCTIVITY AND PLAY, BUT ALSO, TO IMPROVE, REALLY, THEIR TOP LINE TO CHANGE THE WAY IN WHICH ACTUALLY THEY DO BUSINESS SO MUCH MORE STRATEGICALLY GOING FORWARD. >> WELL, WE'VE HAD A LOT OF POSITIVE CHATTER HERE, BUT I DO WANT TO GO TO SOME NEGATIVES THAT CEOS MIGHT BE CONCERNED ABOUT, PARTICULARLY WHEN IT COMES TO CYBERSECURITY. YOUR SURVEY FINDING THAT ONLY 1 IN 5 CHIEF INFORMATION SECURITY OFFICERS AND C-SUITE LEADERS ARE CONSIDERING THEIR APPROACH EFFECTIVE FOR THE CHALLENGES OF TODAY AND TOMORROW WHEN IT COMES TO CYBER THREAT. THAT FREAKED ME OUT. SO WHAT IS THE INDICATION THAT YOU HAVE IN THE SURVEY RESULTS ABOUT HOW EXECUTIVES ARE PREPARING FOR THAT AND HOW AI MIGHT PLAY INTO THAT PREPARATION ? >> THIS IS REALLY, I THINK IT PROVIDES REALLY THE FIGURE OF THE COMPLEXITY OF, OF THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT AND HOW RAPIDLY, ENTERPRISES HAVE BEEN TRANSFORMING WHAT WE CALL DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION. AND THIS IS OBVIOUSLY POSING A LOT OF OPPORTUNITIES IN TERMS OF, EFFECTIVENESS OF THEIR OPERATION AND GETTING, REALLY THE AND THE CUSTOMER TASTES RIGHT. AND ENSURING THAT, THEY CAN DELIVER THE RIGHT PRODUCTS AT THE RIGHT, THE RIGHT TIME AND KEEPING INVENTORY UNDER CONTROL AND SO ON AND SO FORTH. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, BY DIGITIZING EVERYTHING, YOU EXPOSE THE ORGANIZATION TO A MUCH BROADER RANGE OF THREATS AND, AND THE BATTLE REALLY TO, ENSURE THAT SECURITY REMAINS HIGH AND THAT THERE ARE NO DATA LEAKAGES, ETC, IS, IS TOP OF MIND TO EVERYBODY. AND, IT'S SOMETHING THAT IS EVOLVING VERY QUICKLY AND IT ABSORBS, A HUGE AMOUNT OF RESOURCES AND IT REQUIRES A VERY, PECULIAR TALENT . AND IT'S REALLY AN ORGANIZATIONAL WIDE ISSUE. THAT'S WHY IT'S SO CONCERNING. >> ANDREA GUERZONI, GLOBAL VICE CHAIR OF STRATEGY AND TRANSACTIONS. WE APPRECIATE YOU TAKING THE TIME TO JOIN US. THANKS SO MUCH. >> MY PLEASURE. >> WHILE I CAN BOOST PRODUCTIVITY FOR SOME IT COULD BECOME A HEADACHE FOR OTHERS. JUST LAST WEEK, SCARLETT JOHANSSON ACCUSED OPENAI OF USING A VOICE THAT SOUNDS SIMILAR TO HERS FOR ITS NEW CHATBOT. NOW, HOLLYWOOD AND THE MUSIC INDUSTRY ARE LOBBYING WASHINGTON FOR NEW RULES THAT PROTECT ARTISTS. A BIPARTISAN GROUP OF SENATORS ARE RESPONDING WITH A NEW BILL. JOINING US NOW FOR THE LATEST ON THAT IS JENNIFER SCHONBERGER. JEN >> GOOD MORNING. SENATE AIDES TELLING ME THAT SENATORS ARE PUSHING TO INTRODUCE A BILL IN JUNE THAT WOULD REGULATE THE USE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE MOVIE AND MUSIC INDUSTRIES, AS ARTISTS AND ACTORS HAVE SEEN THEIR VOICES AND LIKENESS REPLICATED WITHOUT PERMISSION, THE NO FAKES ACT, WHICH STANDS FOR THE NURTURE ORIGINALS, FOSTER ART AND KEEP ENTERTAINMENT SAFE, IS A BIPARTISAN PROPOSAL THAT WOULD STOP INDIVIDUALS OR COMPANIES FROM USING AI TO PRODUCE AN UNAUTHORIZED DIGITAL REPLICA OF THEIR LIKENESS OR VOICE. MUSICIAN SHERYL CROW TELLING ME, QUOTE, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT SOME WAY TO CREATE PARAMETERS AND GUARDRAILS. WE'VE SEEN ARTISTS ALREADY WHOSE VOICES HAVE BEEN USED AFTER THEY'VE PASSED ON. WE'RE ALSO SEEING ARTISTS BEING USED WHEN THEY HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH SOMETHING THAT'S BEEN PUT OUT, AND THAT'S TERRIFYING. THE BILL'S SPONSOR, SENATOR CHRIS, ALONG WITH SENATORS AMY KLOBUCHAR, THOM TILLIS AND MARSHA BLACKBURN, HAVE BEEN HASHING OUT DETAILS WITH THE MUSIC AND MOVIE INDUSTRIES. THE SPECIFIC AREAS STILL BEING WORKED OUT INCLUDE WHETHER THIS LAW WOULD PREEMPT A CERTAIN PATCHWORK OF STATE LAWS ALREADY IN PLACE, HOW LONG TO PLACE RESTRICTIONS ON LICENSING AND TRANSFERS OF AN ARTIST'S DIGITAL REPLICA, AND HOW LONG POST MORTEM RIGHTS WOULD LAST. A DRAFT VERSION OF THE BILL WOULD EXTEND AUTHORIZATION FOR DIGITAL REPLICATION TO HEIRS OF A DECEASED PERSON FOR 70 YEARS. THAT'S MODELED AFTER THE TERM FOR COPYRIGHT PROTECTION. BUT SOME OF THE MOVIE INDUSTRY WANT ZERO YEARS, WHILE SOME IN THE MUSIC INDUSTRY WOULD LIKE IT TO LAST IN PERPETUITY. AND WHILE THE MOVIE INDUSTRY SUPPORTS PROTECTING ARTISTS, DIGITAL REPLICA, IT HAS CAUTIONED ABOUT NOT LIMITING FIRST AMENDMENT RIGHTS AND REGULATING THE CONTENT OF SPEECH. NOW, LEGISLATION ON PROTECTING THE MUSIC AND MOVIE INDUSTRIES FROM THE RISKS OF AI IS SOMETHING THAT SENATE MAJORITY LEADER CHUCK SCHUMER HAS BEEN CLOSELY LOOKING AT. HE HASN'T SETTLED ON ANY SPECIFIC LEGISLATION YET, BUT WHEN HE DOES, I'M TOLD IT IS LIKELY TO BE ATTACHED TO MUST PASS LEGISLATION IN THE SENATE. GUYS. >> ALL RIGHT, JENNIFER, THANK YOU SO MUCH, AS ALWAYS, FOR BRINGING US THAT STORY. THAT WAS OUR VERY OWN JENNIFER SCHONBERGER. THANK YOU. WE'RE GOING TO DO A QUICK CHECK OF THE MARKETS BEFORE WE WRAP HERE. LOOKING LIKE NOT A TON OF CONVICTION. THE S&P JUST ABOUT FLAT. THE DOW JONES TURNING TO THE DOWNSIDE A LITTLE BIT HERE. BUT THE NASDAQ THE TECH HEAVY NASDAQ ACTUALLY HITTING ABOVE THAT 17,000 LEVEL. THAT IS A RECORD HIGH FOR THE NASDAQ UP 5/10 OF A PERCENT HERE. IF IT HOLDS ON TO THOSE GAINS IT WOULD CLOSE WITH ANOTHER RECORD HIGH. SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE S&P CATCHES UP TO THE NASDAQ THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHEN IT COMES TO GAINS. AND OF COURSE, WHETHER OR NOT THE NASDAQ CAN HOLD ON TO THOSE HIGHS HERE. >> COMING UP NEXT, KEEP RIGHT HERE ON YAHOO FINANCE BRAD SMITH HAS ALL OF YOUR PERSONAL FINANCE NEEDS WEALTH KICKING OFF IN JUST ABOUT THREE MINUTES. WE'LL SEE YOU TOMORROW. >> WELCOME TO WEALTH, EVERYONE. I'M BRAD SMITH AND THIS IS YAHOO FINANCE'S GUIDE TO BUILDING YOUR FINANCIAL FOOTPRINT. OUR COMMUNITY OF EXPERTS WILL GIVE YOU THE RESOURCES, TOOLS, TIPS AND TRICKS TO GROW YOUR MONEY ON TODAY'S SHOW. A RECENT POLL SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF AMERICANS WRONGLY BELIEVE THE U.S. IS ALREADY IN A RECESSION. WE'LL DIG INTO THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE DATA AND HOW AMERICANS FEEL ABOUT THE ECONOMY. AND THERE'S A NEW RULE ON WALL STREET CALLED T PLUS ONE. WE'LL TELL YOU WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR MONEY IN THE MARKET. PLUS WORKER WOES. AN EXPERT JOINS THE PROGRAM TO REVEAL HOW FREELANCERS ARE FARING IN TODAY'S ECONOMY AND WHERE THEY'RE NAVIGATING AS WELL. BUT FIRST, LET'S GET A QUICK CHECK ON THE MARKETS. WE'RE ABOUT 90 MINUTES INTO THIS TRADING SESSION DURING A SHORTENED TRADING WEEK, THE FIRST OF THE SHORTENED TRADING WEEK AND THE LAST TRADING WEEK OF MAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IS DOWN BY ABOUT 4/10 OF A PERCENT. THE S&P 500 HOLDING ON TO GAINS BY THE HAIR OF ITS CHINNY CHIN CHIN . YOU'RE SEEING IT UPY ABOUT TWO POINTS, WHICH EQUATES TO FOUR HUNDREDTHS OF A PERCENT. AND THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE THAT TWO IN POSITIVE TERRITORY RIGHT NOW BY ABOUT HALF A PERCENT. WHILE AMERICANS ARE FEELING A BIT BETTER ABOUT THE ECONOMY OF LATE, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISING DURING THE MONTH OF MAY, IMPROVING AFTER THREE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF DECLINES. THAT'S ACCORDING TO THE CONFERENCE BOARD DATA THAT WAS UNVEILED TODAY. BUT THE SURVEY ALSO POINTS TO CONCERNS ABOUT RECESSION, WITH THE EXPECTATIONS INDEX THAT MEASURES SHORT TERM OUTLOOK FOR INCOME, BUSINESS AND LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS THAT CAME IN BELOW 80 FOR THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH, A THRESHOLD THE CONFERENCE BOARD SAYS SIGNALS A RECESSION AHEAD. SO IS THE ECONOMY DOING WELL OR NOT? HERE WITH MORE IS YAHOO FINANCE'S RICK NEWMAN. RICK IT SEEMS LIKE THINGS ARE HOLDING UP HOLDING UP ENOUGH FOR THE FED TO NOT CUT INTEREST RATES. BUT HOW ARE CONSUMERS AND THE EVERYDAY AMERICAN FEELING OUT THERE? >> I MEAN IT'S A BIFURCATED MENTALITY. SO YOU JUST POINTED TO A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT THINGS THERE, THE CONFERENCE BOARD INDEX, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX USUALLY IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN ANOTHER ONE. >> WE TALK ABOUT A LOT, WHICH IS THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, MICHIGAN INDEX, THAT INDEX HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN PEOPLE TO BE IN A RECESSIONARY MOOD. AND THE MICHIGAN INDEX EMPHASIZES INFLATION MORE THAN THE CONSUMER BOARD INDEX DOES. SO I THINK THAT TELLS US SOMETHING RIGHT THERE. I THINK HOW YOU FEEL ABOUT THE ECONOMY, DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON HOW HARD INFLATION HAS HIT YOU DURING THE LAST FEW YEARS. SO IF YOU ARE SOMEBODY, WITH A BUNCH OF KIDS IN THE HOUSE, FOR EXAMPLE, A LOT OF MOUTHS TO FEED AND YOU'VE BEEN DEALING WITH GROCERY PRICES, YOU MIGHT BE FEELING PRETTY BUMMED OUT BECAUSE GROCERY PRICES ARE UP, BY MORE THAN INCOME DURING THE LAST THREE YEARS, IF YOU'RE, IF YOU'RE NOT THAT, SENSITIVE TO THAT TYPE OF INFLATION, IF YOU'VE GOT SOME INVESTMENTS IN THE STOCK MARKET, YOU MIGHT BE FEELING PRETTY GOOD. I MEAN, THE RECENT EYECATCHER WAS THIS, POLL BY HARRIS AND THE GUARDIAN THAT FOUND THAT 56% OF PEOPLE THINK WE ARE IN A RECESSION. WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION. WE'RE NOT EVEN CLOSE. AND IN THAT SAME POLL, 49% SAID THEY THINK THE STOCK MARKET HAS BEEN DOWN SO FAR THIS YEAR. AND OF COURSE, I WOULD HOPE YAHOO FINANCE VIEWERS KNOW IT'S BEEN UP, BY QUITE A LOT. IT WAS UP LAST YEAR TOO. IT'S BEEN IT'S BEEN A GREAT RIDE FOR INVESTORS THE LAST SIX MONTHS. SO, WE JUST GOT COMPLETELY BIFURCATED VIEWS ON THE ECONOMY HERE, AND IT'S BEEN THAT WAY FOR SOME TIME. >> THAT WOULD SIGNAL TO US HERE AT YAHOO FINANCE. RICK. AND I'M TAPPED MARKET FOR SOME POTENTIAL VIEWERS COMING OUR WAY. SO WE CAN KEEP THEM EDUCATED ON THE DAILY. RICK, THANKS SO MUCH I HOPE SO. >> SEE YOU BRAD. >> ABSOLUTELY. >> WELL, A BIG RULE CHANGE AIMS TO HELP SETTLE TRADES MORE QUICKLY. A RULE AMENDMENT IS ACTIVE AS OF MAY 28TH, WHICH PROVIDES INVESTORS WITH A 50% IMPROVEMENT ON BUY AND SELL ORDER, EXECUTE DUBBED T PLUS ONE. SO IT'S KNOWN IN FULL AS TRADING DAY PLUS ONE BUSINESS DAY, WHICH MEANS WHEN YOU SELL OR BUY A SECURITY, THE TRANSACTION WILL SETTLE A DAY AFTER THE TRANSACTION DATE. NOW THAT'S HALF THE TIME OF THE USUAL TWO DAYS THAT IT TAKES TO SETTLE A TRANSACTION. SO IF YOU BUY A STOCK ON MONDAY, WHICH IS A TRADING DAY, THE TRANSACTION WILL SETTLE ON TUESDAY. AND IF YOU SELL A SECURITY OVER THE WEEKEND THAT IT'LL SETTLE ON THE NEXT BUSINESS DAY. NOW THIS APPLIES TO STOCKS, CORPORATE BONDS, ETFS, MUNICIPAL SECURITIES, SOME MUTUAL FUNDS AND LIMITED PARTNERSHIPS THAT TRADE ON EXCHANGES. BUT THE BIG QUESTION YOU MIGHT BE ASKING WHY DOES THIS EVEN MATTER, BRAD? WELL, IT MAKES PORTFOLIO ASSETS MORE LIQUID. AND THE AMENDMENT IS ACTUALLY A CONTINUATION OF SETTLEMENT CYCLE TRIMMING. THAT IS TAKING PLACE SINCE 2017. THAT WAS WHEN THE SEC CUT FROM T PLUS THREE DOWN TO T PLUS TWO. NOW, ONE OF THE REASONS THIS IS POSSIBLE IS BECAUSE OF TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT, WHICH HAS PROVIDED A SMOOTH ENTRY POINT FOR INVESTORS TO DIGITALLY TRADE WITH PREFUNDED ACCOUNTS LINKED TO A BANK. AND THIS SHORTENED TRANSACTION CYCLE MAY MAKE TRADING JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE EFFICIENT. SO HAPPY TRADING. WELL, SWITCHING GEARS HERE, INDEPENDENT CONTRACTORS ARE AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY, AND THE GROUP CONTINUES TO GROW AS WORKERS SEEK FLEXIBILITY AND EMPLOYERS LOOK TO FILL TEMPORARY ROLES. ACCORDING TO FIVERR, INDEPENDENT CONTRACTORS MAKE UP 4.1% OF THE US LABOR FORCE. EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE US ECONOMY, 43% INCREASED THEIR REVENUE IN 2023 AND 55% EXPECT TO EARN EVEN MORE IN 2024. JOINING ME NOW WITH THE STATE OF THE US FREELANCER, WE'VE GOT MIKA KAUFMAN, WHO IS THE FIVERR CEO. GREAT TO SEE YOU HERE THIS MORNING AND THANKS SO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME HERE WITH US ON WEALTH. FIRST AND FOREMOST, WE GOT TO KNOW IN THIS BROADER LABOR SITUATION AND EMPLOYMENT SITUATION NATIONALLY, WHERE YOU'RE SEEING THE STATE OF LABOR AS IT PERTAINS TO THE GIG ECONOMY AND THOSE WHO ARE FREELANCING OUT THERE. >> THANKS FOR HAVING ME, BRAD, SO WHAT WE'RE SEEING FROM THE REPORT IS THAT IN GENERAL, FREELANCERS THAT RESIDE IN MAJOR CITIES MAKE MORE THAN THE AVERAGE FREELANCER IN THE US AS A WHOLE, AND WE'VE SEEN GRAVITATION TOWARDS CITIES IN FLORIDA. >> THEY'RE IN THE TOP OF THE CHART IN TERMS OF FREELANCER POPULATION, BUT ALSO REVENUE GROWTH. AND WE'VE SEEN OTHER FAST GROWING CITIES, WITH FREELANCERS, INCLUDING LAS VEGAS, HOUSTON, WHICH INDICATES THAT FREELANCERS LOVE SUNSHINE, LOW INCOME TAXES AND THE LOWER COST OF LIVING IN THESE METRO AREAS, BUT ALL IN ALL, WE'RE SEEING TREMENDOUS OPTIMISM, AND WE'RE SEEING MORE PEOPLE THAT ARE ENGAGING WITH FREELANCER OVER TIME. AND TO CONNECT IT TO WHAT YOU SAID ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND FEELING THE RECESSION. WHAT WE'RE SEEING WITH FREELANCERS IS THEIR PARTICIPATION IN THE PIE IS JUST GROWING. THE COMBINED REVENUE OF, INDEPENDENT PROFESSIONALS IN THE US HAS BEEN ABOUT $191 BILLION IN 2023, WHICH IS A NICE BUMP FROM THE YEAR BEFORE. IT DOESN'T MEAN THAT THERE IS NO MAP, THAT THERE IS NO MACRO HEADWIND, BUT IT MEANS THAT MORE PEOPLE ARE PARTICIPATING IN INDEPENDENT WORK AND AS SUCH, GENERATING, MORE MONEY OUT OF IT. >> WHERE DO YOU SEE MORE PEOPLE BEING ABLE TO TAKE ON OPPORTUNITY? ARE THERE SPECIFIC, IN-DEMAND ROLES AND IN-DEMAND JOBS FOR FREELANCERS RIGHT NOW? >> YEAH, ABSOLUTELY, SO OBVIOUSLY WE'VE CALLED OUT, A FEW, INCREASES IN, IN SEARCHES, WHICH INCLUDE, TRADEMARK ATTORNEYS WITH ALMOST 4,000% INCREASE, BUSINESS STATISTICS WITH OVER 2,000% INCREASE, ECONOMICS WITH OVER 200, INCREASE. AND THE LIST GOES ON. OBVIOUSLY ANYTHING THAT HAS TO DO WITH DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION. SO THAT MIGHT BE WEBSITE DEVELOPMENT, THAT MIGHT BE E-COMMERCE, SETUP, THAT MIGHT BE ANYTHING THAT IS RELATED TO I, I SO THE INTEGRATION OF AI TECHNOLOGIES INTO THEIR CLIENTS PRODUCTS ARE SOME OF THE AREAS WHICH ARE, SKYROCKETING IN DEMAND, RIGHT NOW. >> AND JUST A LEVEL DEEPER INTO THAT WITH REGARD TO AI, I MEAN, THIS IS SOMETHING THAT YOU AT FIVERR ARE DEPLOYING FOR YOUR OWN BUSINESS, BUT ALSO TRYING TO FIGURE OUT, OKAY, WHERE SOME OF WITHIN THE WORKFORCE, THERE ARE MORE PEOPLE WHO ARE RESKILLING SPECIFICALLY ANTICIPATING WHAT GENERATIVE AI AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MORE BROADLY, WHAT TYPE OF INFLECTION POINT THAT'S EXPERIENCING. >> YEAH. >> YOU KNOW, IF THERE'S ONE ONE THING VERY CLEAR BY NOW IS THAT AI AND AI ARE EXTREMELY POWERFUL TECHNOLOGIES THAT ALLOW ALL OF US TO ACHIEVE MORE AND WORK FASTER. THAT SAID, WE KNOW THAT GEN II, IN THE HANDS OF HIGHLY PROFESSIONAL AND CREATIVE TALENT, PRODUCES ASTONISHING RESULTS COMPARED TO THE AVERAGE PERSON. IN OTHER WORDS, GEN AI IS ACCESSIBLE FOR EVERYONE, WHICH MAKES IT THE NEW BASELINE THAT DOESN'T GIVE ANYONE A COMPETITIVE EDGE. AND GETTING THE ADVANTAGE ALWAYS TAKES A HUMAN EXPERT TO MAKE THE MOST OUT OF THESE NEW TOOLS AND TECHNOLOGIES, WHICH MEANS THAT THOSE WHO MASTER THESE NEW TECHNOLOGIES WILL OUTPERFORM THOSE WHO DON'T. SO WE'RE SEEING OUR FREELANCERS ARE ACTUALLY GETTING VERY WELL FAMILIAR WITH THESE TOOLS AND ARE ABLE TO OFFER THINGS THAT THEIR CUSTOMERS CANNOT PRODUCE ON THEIR OWN. >> CERTAINLY, YOU KNOW, I HAVE TO HUSTLE TO MY FINISH HERE, BUT WITH THE TIME WE HAVE LEFT, I'D LOVE TO GET YOUR PERSPECTIVE AS WELL. ON WAGES THAT FREELANCERS ARE EXPERIENCING RIGHT NOW. AND WHERE THEY'RE BEING ABLE TO PERHAPS TAKE ON EVEN MORE REVENUE BECAUSE OF THE TYPE OF WORK OR BECAUSE OF THE DEMAND PROFILE OF THEIR WORK. >> SURE. >> WHAT WE'VE SEEN, FROM THE REVIEW, IS THAT INDEPENDENT PROFESSIONALS IN THE TOP 30 MARKETS S EARN ABOUT 10% MORE THAN THE US AVERAGE ACROSS THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF INDEPENDENT PROFESSIONALS. NOW, THAT DOESN'T MEAN THAT YOU NEED TO MOVE, INTO ONE OF THE BIGGEST METROS, BUT IT SEEMS THAT THEY'RE GRAVITATING TO SOME OF THE TALENT, MAYBE BECAUSE THEY THINK THAT THEY HAVE ALSO PHYSICAL ACCESS TO SOME OF, SOME OF THESE CUSTOMERS. I BELIEVE, AS I'VE SAID, THAT, YOU KNOW, BEING ABLE TO, BECOME PROFESSIONAL AT THESE NEW TECHNOLOGIES WHILE STAYING VERY MUCH SERVICE ORIENTED, AND ENSURING THAT YOU CAN YOU CAN RETAIN YOUR CUSTOMERS OVER TIME ARE THE KEY, AREAS OF SUCCESS THAT WE'RE SEEING ACROSS OUR PLATFORM, AND IN GENERAL, WE'RE SEEING FREELANCERS MAKE MORE MONEY ON AVERAGE DOING WHAT THEY LOVE WITH WITHOUT GOING THROUGH THE HUSTLE OF TRYING TO WIN PROJECTS, BUT JUST FOCUSING ON ON THEIR PROFESSIONAL SKILLS. >> MIKA, JUST LASTLY, WHILE WE HAVE YOU AND WE'D BE REMISS IF WE DIDN'T TAKE THE OPPORTUNITY TO ASK AT LEAST ONE BUSINESS QUESTION ABOUT FIVERR IN ITSELF. I MEAN, THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT ARE TAPPED INTO THE YAHOO FINANCE PLATFORM. THEY YOU KNOW, THEY DIAL UP TICKER SYMBOL F, VRR, AND THEY TAKE A LOOK AT HOW THE STOCK IS DOING. PERHAPS THEY'VE LISTENED IN TO SOME OF YOUR EARNINGS REPORTS AS WELL. THEY HEAR ABOUT THE BUYBACK AUTHORIZATION FOR $100 MILLION. AND THE FIRST OF ITS KIND FOR FIVERR AS WELL IN THIS MOST RECENT QUARTER HERE, WALK US INTO THE NEXT GROWTH POINT THAT FIVERR IS LOOKING TO UNLOCK. >> SO I THINK, YOU KNOW, YOU MENTIONED THE BUYBACK. THE BUYBACK REPRESENTS, YOU KNOW, OUR BULLISHNESS ABOUT THE COMPANY AND ITS FUTURE. AND WE THINK THAT RIGHT NOW THE STOCK IS TRADING WELL BELOW WHERE IT SHOULD BE GIVEN THE, GROWTH PROFILE OF THE COMPANY AND ITS HIGH PROFITABILITY. NOW WE THINK THAT THERE IS A LOT OF MACRO, IN IT. IF YOU LOOK AT THE PROFESSIONAL STAFFING MARKET IN 2023, THAT MARKET DECLINED LEAST BY 19. WHILE FIVERR HAS BEEN ABLE TO GROW BY SEVEN 8, WHICH IS A PRETTY MASSIVE OFFSET, GIVEN GIVEN THE PRETTY HIGH HEADWINDS. AND WE FEEL THAT THIS , PROFILE OF GROWTH WILL JUST ACCELERATE AS MARKETS START TO NORMALIZE, WE ALSO SEE SOME FEAR OUT OF, I AND II AND THE POTENTIAL DISPLACEMENT OF TALENT. WE'VE TALKED EXTENSIVELY ABOUT THE FACT THAT WE'RE SEEING AI AS BEING NET POSITIVE FOR US, WHICH DOESN'T MEAN THAT SOME VERY, VERY SIMPLE TASKS CANNOT BE REPLACED BY AI. BUT AI IS GENERATING SO MANY MORE JOBS THAT YOU CAN FIND ON FIVERR, AND THEY'RE GROWING VERY, VERY FAST. >> CERTAINLY, MIKA, GREAT TO CATCH UP WITH YOU HOPE TO CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION IN THE FUTURE AS WELL. MIKA KAUFMAN, WHO IS THE FIVERR CEO. APPRECIATE IT. >> THANKS SO MUCH FOR HAVING ME. >> CERTAINLY, EVERYONE, WE'VE GOT ALL YOUR ACTIONS STRAIGHT AHEAD. STAY TUNED. YOU'RE WATCHING WEALTH ON YAHOO FINANCE . THE S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX HITTING AN ALL TIME HIGH IN MARCH 2024. THE NEW REPORT. IT SHOWS THAT HOME PRICES INCREASED MONTH OVER MONTH IN ALL MAJOR METRO MARKETS. AND HERE WITH MORE, WE'VE GOT BRIAN LUKE, WHO IS THE S&P DOW JONES INDICES HEAD OF COMMODITIES REAL AND DIGITAL ASSETS HERE. GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON HERE WITH US BRIAN. AND THANKS FOR TAKING SOME TIME. YOU KNOW, AS WE DIVE INTO A BUNCH OF THE READINGS THAT WE'RE GETTING ECONOMICALLY, HOW HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THIS LATEST DATA AS IT PERTAINS TO THE BROADER PICTURE HERE FROM CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX SHOWING THAT NEW ALL TIME HIGH FROM MARCH. >> YEAH. THANKS FOR HAVING ME. I THINK THE FACT THAT WE'VE HIT NINE CONSECUTIVE ALL TIME HIGHS AND THAT'S ON A SEASONAL ADJUSTED BASIS IS SOMETHING THAT'S REALLY TREMENDOUS. WE SAW A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED ALL TIME HIGHS COMING OUT OF 2020, AND THE COVID CYCLE, HOUSING MARKET WAS REALLY EXPLODING. BUT IT DID TAPER OFF A LITTLE BIT. AND NOW WE'RE COMING BACK TO THESE, CONSECUTIVE, NEW LEVELS. SO ONE OF THE THINGS I THINK THAT YOU LOOK BACK IS PROBABLY NOT TO BE AFRAID OF AN ALL TIME HIGH. I THINK OVER THE LAST YEAR, WE'VE HAD 35 ALL TIME HIGHS IN THE S&P 500. AND SO THE HOUSING MARKET IS ANOTHER ASSET CLASS THAT'S PUSHING NEW LIMITS. >> WHAT ARE SOME OF THE REGIONAL MARKETS AND DRIVERS THAT YOU'RE TRACKING RIGHT NOW. >> YEAH WE'RE SEEING BROAD BASED GAINS ACROSS THE MARKET AND REALLY LESS OF A DISPARITY BETWEEN SOME REGIONAL MARKETS AND ANOTHER. BUT ONE OF THE AREAS THAT'S REALLY GROWN THE FASTEST IS THE NORTHEAST, AND THAT'S A BIT OF A SURPRISE. BUT THE LAST 5 OR 6, PERIODS, WE'VE SEEN CITIES LIKE NEW YORK, BOSTON, WASHINGTON, D.C. REALLY DRIVING UP THE VALUES OF THE HOME PRICE INDEX THAT WE CALCULATE. AND THAT'S WHAT'S REALLY BEEN PUSHING SOME OF THE REGIONAL TRENDS. SO WE HAD ORIGINALLY SEEN A LOT OF THE SUNBELT STATES DO VERY WELL IN 2020, 2021. BUT YOU LOOK AT THE LAST 12 TO 24 MONTHS, THE DISPARITY HAS BEEN IN THOSE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS. SO IT COULD BE SOMETHING THAT MORE OF A RETURN TO OFFICE, ENVIRONMENT AS WELL, PUTTING PEOPLE BACK IN THOSE CITIES OR TRADITIONAL METRO POLITAN AREAS, BUT THE CITIES LIKE TAMPA, PHOENIX AND DALLAS THAT HAVE REALLY THE OUTPERFORMERS IN 2020 AND 2021 HAVE FALLEN OFF THE PACE. AND SOME OF THOSE LAGGARDS DURING THAT TIME ARE NOW COMING BACK UP . >> THAT'S REALLY INTERESTING BECAUSE WE WERE SPEAKING WITH A GUEST EARLIER THIS MORNING JUST ABOUT HOW MUCH, PERHAPS THE KIND OF ANNEXATION TO CITY CENTERS COULD IMPACT THAT THE HOUSING MARKET. ONCE AGAIN, IF YOU SEE PEOPLE FLOWING BACK INTO AND FLOWING INTO SUBURBS OR EXURBS, THAT WAS A NEW ONE FOR ME TO LEARN THIS MORNING AS WELL. HOW THAT COULD AND RETURN TO OFFICE COULD POTENTIALLY ALSO BE A NEAR-TERM TYPE OF BOOST. SMALL OR MEDIUM SIZES. IT MAY BE BACK INTO THE HOUSING MARKET AS WELL HERE AS WE'RE STILL WAITING FOR EVEN MORE CAPACITY TO BE BROUGHT ONLINE AS WELL. >> YEAH, I THINK THERE'S A LOT OF TRENDS THAT ARE THAT ARE DICTATING THAT. A LOT OF THAT IS MIGRATORY TRENDS THAT WE'VE SEEN A LOT OF THE POPULATION SHIFT DOWN SOUTH. BUT THOSE WERE, VALUES OF HOUSING MARKETS THAT WERE LOWER VALUED HISTORICALLY SPEAKING. AND A LOT OF, PEOPLE MOVE THERE FOR A BETTER OF QUALITY OF LIFE. AND SO A BETTER QUALITY OF LIVING IN TERMS OF THEIR AFFORDABILITY OF HOMES, BUT NOW WHAT WE'RE SEEING IN THE LAST 12 TO 24 MONTHS OF DATA IS A REVERSAL OF THAT. SO I THINK THAT SOME OF THE, OUTPERFORMERS, THE SUNSHINE STATES, THEY HAVE DONE VERY WELL AND THEY'VE CONTINUED TO DO, RETURN POSITIVELY. HOWEVER ONE OF THE AREAS THAT WE'RE REALLY SEEING IMPROVEMENT IS SOME OF THOSE LARGER TRADITIONAL MARKETS. AND SO WHAT THAT'S REALLY DICTATING IS THIS MIGRATION OF PERFORMANCE THAT GOES BACK TO THOSE TRADITIONAL CITY CENTERS LIKE CHICAGO, LOS ANGELES, NEW YORK, THOSE LARGER AREAS, AS OPPOSED TO SOME OF THE SMALLER MARKETS THAT WERE REALLY, OUTPERFORMING IN THE 20 2021 PERIODS. >> YOU KNOW, YOU'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT ARE PERHAPS ON THE SIDELINE JUST WAITING FOR THE FED TO CUT RATES. AND, YOU KNOW, AT THIS POINT, IT'S BECOMING A DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH TYPE OF SCENARIO. BUT IF THERE'S ONE THING THAT YOU BELIEVE THAT THE FED MAY BE WATCHING FOR, WHAT WOULD THAT BE? ESPECIALLY AS THEY'RE KIND OF LOOKING ACROSS HOMEOWNERS EQUIVALENT RENTS. THEY'RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHERE SOME OF THOSE AREAS OF STICKIER, STICKIER INFLATION AND SHELTER AND ENERGY, WHERE THEY ACTUALLY HAVE LEVERS THAT THEY CAN PULL AND THE RIGHT TIMING TO PULL THAT. >> YEAH. SO YOU DO LOOK AT THE SAINT LOUIS FED. THEY DO TRACK THE S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDICES. THEY TRACK EVERYTHING FROM A CONSUMER'S PERSPECTIVE. I THINK THAT WHEN YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE ELEVATED RATES WE'VE SEEN, THAT DID CAUSE A BIT OF A PAUSE IN THE APPRECIATION. IN THE MARKET IN THE THIRD QUARTER, HOWEVER, WE HAVE SEEN MORE, POSITIVE MONTH OVER MONTH RETURNS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. BUT IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL BENEFIT FOR ALL THIS EQUITY IN HOMEOWNERS, VALUES IS, YOU KNOW, THEY HAVE THAT AS A BUFFER IF IT'S NOT THEIR FIRST AND LARGEST ASSET INVESTMENT, IT COULD BE THEIR SECOND NEXT TO THEIR RETIREMENT PORTFOLIO. THAT'S SOMETHING THAT'S GOING TO GIVE THEM A LITTLE BIT OF CONFIDENCE IN THEIR WHAT THAT IS GOING TO DICTATE FOR THE FED IS GIVING THEM THAT ABILITY. HOWEVER THEY THE HOMEOWNERS CAN'T REALLY LOCK IN OR EQUITIZE THOSE THAT CASH UNLESS THEY SELL THEIR HOME, IN WHICH CASE THEY MAY WANT TO DO THAT. OR IF THEY'RE DOWNSIZING, BUT THERE'S NO REAL TOOL THAT THEY CAN GO IN AND SAY, I WANT TO PEEL OFF A PIECE OF THAT EQUITY FOR RETIREMENT FOR A LONGER, LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. AND SO IT DOES GIVE A BENEFIT TO THE HOMEOWNERS AND THEREFORE IT TRANSLATES INTO CONFIDENCE, OVERALL, IN THE CONSUMER, BUT THERE'S NOT REALLY SOMETHING THAT THEY CAN PULL TOGETHER. AND AND UTILIZE ASIDE FROM, YOU KNOW, TRANSACTING AND SELLING DOWN. >> YEAH. BRIAN, I GOT TO SPRINT TO THE FINISH. 15 SECONDS LEFT HERE. IF THERE'S ONE WAY THAT YOU WOULD DESCRIBE THE SUMMER HOME BUYING SEASON IS NOW, WE'VE HAD THE UNOFFICIAL BEGINNING OF SUMMER ALREADY BEHIND US THIS PAST WEEKEND. WHAT WOULD THAT BE? >> WELL, HAVING STRENGTH COMING INTO THE SUMMER THAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE RECENT MONTHS OF DATA, I WOULD SAY THAT THAT'S GOING TO BE, YOU KNOW, A CHALLENGE TO CONTINUE THAT TREND. HOWEVER, THAT'S WHEN MOST HOMEOWNERS START TO MOVE. THEY SCHOOLS OUT AND YOU'LL SEE A LOT OF PRICES CHANGES TAKING OVER DURING THAT TIME. SO IT REALLY KIND OF SEES THE STRENGTH COMING INTO THE SUMMER IS INTERESTING. >> BRIAN LUKE S&P DOW JONES INDICES HEAD OF COMMODITIES, REAL AND DIGITAL ASSETS BRIAN, GREAT TO SEE YOU. THANKS FOR HOPPING ON WITH US. >> THANK YOU. THANKS EVERYONE. >> LET'S STICK WITH HOUSING FOR A HOT SECOND HERE. AMERICANS ARE DELAYING THEIR HOME RENOVATION PLANS AND OPTING FOR MORE AFFORDABLE OPTIONS AMID HIGH BORROWING COSTS AND A HOUSING MARKET RECOVERY THAT HAS YET TO FULLY, ENTIRELY MATERIALIZE. HERE. HERE WITH THE STORY THOUGH WE'VE GOT YAHOO FINANCE'S DANNY ROMERO. HEY DANNY WHAT DO WE KNOW BRAD BECOMING A FIXER UPPER IS REALLY EXPENSIVE RIGHT NOW. >> CONSUMERS ARE SHIFTING AWAY FROM BIG RENOVATION PROJECTS AND MOVING TOWARDS THOSE DO IT YOURSELF TYPE OF PROJECTS. DATA FROM JOHN BURNS AND APRIL SHOWED THAT CONSUMERS ARE TRYING TO FIND CHEAPER ALTERNATIVE MOVES IN CATEGORIES LIKE CABINETS, FLOORING, LIGHTING, FIXTURES AND EVEN COUNTERPARTS. I SPOKE WITH A HOMEOWNER IN MICHIGAN THAT SAID THAT HE WANTED TO REPLACE HIS SHOWER STALL, AND HE SAID THAT IT WOULD COST HIM ABOUT $1,000 JUST TO REPLACE THAT SHOWER STALL. YOU CAN SEE IT ON YOUR SCREEN RIGHT NOW. AND SO THAT WAS REALLY OUT OF BUDGET. AND HE ALSO SAID, THIS IS NOT INCLUDING LABOR COSTS INTO ALL OF THIS MIX. SO INSTEAD HE FOUND DIY FACEBOOK GROUPS AND STARTED POSTING THESE PICTURES ON THESE FACEBOOK GROUPS. AND IN THOSE FACEBOOK GROUPS. I MEAN, I'M SURE, YOU KNOW, A LOT OF PEOPLE GO IN THERE AND THEY JUST START SAYING SUGGESTIONS ON FACEBOOK IN A WHILE. SO, I DON'T KNOW, BUT THEY JUST START PUTTING COMMENTS IN THERE. AND SO HE WAS LIKE, WOW, I CAN ACTUALLY REPAIR THIS SHOWER STALL FOR $25, A WAY BETTER IN HIS BUDGET, LET'S SAY, BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS HOMEOWNER ISN'T THE ONLY ONE. THERE'S DATA FROM JOHN BURNS THAT SAID THAT 36% OF CONSUMERS ARE DELAYING PROJECTS FOR AN EVEN FURTHER DATE, WHILE 30% OF CONSUMERS ARE SPENDING LESS. THAT WAS ACCORDING TO DATA IN APRIL. AND THE REASON IS BUILDING PRODUCTS ARE SO EXPENSIVE RIGHT NOW AND THE COST OF LABOR IS HAS ALSO GONE UP. BRAD. BUT THE SLOWDOWN ISN'T GOING TO LAST FOREVER, ACCORDING TO EXPERTS. THERE ARE TWO CATALYSTS THAT REALLY WILL HELP THIS MARKET. THIS INDUSTRY, FOR ONE, HOUSEHOLD WEALTH IS SO STRONG RIGHT NOW, AND THAT REALLY IS AN INDICATOR FOR LARGE DISCRETIONARY SPENDING. NUMBER TWO IS THAT EXPERTS SAY THAT 50% OF HOMEOWNERS ARE SITTING IN A HOME THAT IS 40 YEARS OLD. SO THAT MEANS THAT EVENTUALLY THOSE HOMES WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED AND REPAIRED WITH INSIDE THE HOME. AND SO THAT WILL ALSO HELP THE HOME IMPROVEMENT MARKET SOME CRITICAL STRUCTURAL PROJECTS PERHAPS HERE. >> DANNY, THANKS SO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME TO BREAK THIS DOWN. APPRECIATE IT EVERYONE. WE'VE GOT MUCH MORE ON WEALTH AFTER THE BREAK. YOU'RE WATCHING YAHOO FINANCE. MAJOR INDICES. HAVING A STRONG MONTH HERE. THE NASDAQ AND THE S&P 500 HAVING THEIR BEST RUN SINCE NOVEMBER TO BREAK DOWN WHERE YOU SHOULD BE POTENTIALLY CASHING IN TO THE RALLY. HERE WE'VE GOT NORA YOUSEF, WHO IS THE RBC WEALTH MANAGEMENT VICE PRESIDENT AND FINANCIAL ADVISOR. NORA GREAT TO SEE YOU AND THANKS FOR JOINING THE PROGRAM WITH US HERE THIS MORNING. WE GOT TO KNOW, I MEAN, WHEN PEOPLE ARE THINKING ABOUT, OF COURSE, THE AGE OLD ADAGE OF SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY, IT SEEMS LIKE THERE'S QUITE A FEW BUYING OPPORTUNITIES THAT INVESTORS HAVE REALLY BEEN TRYING TO TAP INTO. WHERE ARE SOME OF THE MAYBE NOT OVERCROWDED, BUT STILL RIPE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MARKET? >> THAT'S RIGHT. BRAD THE OBVIOUS ONE IS TECH WITH AI IN ITS INFANCY STAGES. AI IS THE BUZZ TERM. NOW. NEXT WILL BE QUANTUM COMPUTING. WE'VE ALL HEARD WHAT IT CAN MEAN FOR PRODUCTIVITY AND HOW IT'S GOING TO BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE PREVIOUS INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTIONS. THE NAYSAYERS ARE SAYING THINGS ARE FROTHY. I DON'T DISAGREE, BUT THINGS AREN'T AS EXPENSIVE AS THEY WERE DURING THE.COM BUBBLE THAT EVERYONE'S SO SCARED OF. BACK THEN, THE FOUR HORSEMEN STOCK, INTEL, MICROSOFT, CISCO, DELL THAT POWER THE TECH SAW THEIR COMBINED PE WAS A WHOPPING 80 TODAY. THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN'S COMBINED PE IS ABOUT HALF THAT, AND THIS RALLY IS FUELED BY ESTABLISHED FIRMS WITH YEARS OF PROFITS IN THE BOOKS LONG OPERATIONAL TRACK RECORDS. AND THAT'S A STARK CONTRAST TO BACK THEN. THE SECOND I'D POINT OUT PERHAPS LESS OBVIOUS REITS, THEY'RE EXPERIENCING AN INVERSE RELATIONSHIP WITH INTEREST RATES. THEY TOOK A BEATING IN 2022 AS RATES WERE UP TO COMBAT INFLATION, WHICH PEAKED OVER 9% IN JUNE OF 2022. IT WAS DOWN MOST OF LAST YEAR AND ONLY FLIPPED UP POSITIVE ABOUT 10% AT THE VERY END OF LAST YEAR. ON THE IDEA OF THE FED STARTING TO LOWER RATES. AND WHEN THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN THIS YEAR, IT'S BACK DOWN AND STILL ON SALE FROM ITS ALL TIME HIGH. SO REMEMBER THE KEY TO BEING A GOOD INVESTOR IS BEING A CONTRARIAN AND SEEKING OUT WHAT'S OUT OF FAVOR. AND LASTLY, I'D POINT OUT FIXED INCOME. WE ARE AT 23 YEAR HIGHS FOLKS, ON INTEREST RATES RIGHT NOW, SO CONSIDER SEIZING THAT OPPORTUNITY BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY CLOSES ON US AS THE FED LOWERS RATES AND THAT MEANS BUYING UP THINGS LIKE TREASURY BILLS, CDS, BONDS, PARTICULARLY MUNICIPAL BONDS. IF YOU'RE IN A HIGH TAX BRACKET. SO THAT WAY YOU DON'T GET HIT WITH INCOME AND POTENTIALLY STATE TAX TAXES. >> CERTAINLY. >> AND SO NOR AS WE'RE KIND OF THINKING ABOUT THOSE DIFFERENT ELEMENTS OF THE MARKET THAT INVESTORS COULD BE AND SHOULD BE PERHAPS EVALUATING OR EVEN TAKING ON SOME POSITIONS WITHIN, WHERE SHOULD THEY BE PERHAPS FADING SOME OF THEIR EXPOSURE. >> WELL, YOU KNOW, EVERYONE'S WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION. AND YES, WE HAD A GOOD INFLATION READING LAST, MONTH HERE. BUT IN SHORT, THE WORRIES AREN'T REALLY BEHIND US JUST YET. SO INFLATION REALLY IS A BIG PART OF YOUR DECISION. INFLATION IS A STUBBORN THING, NOT UNLIKE TRYING TO LOSE WEIGHT. THOSE LAST FEW POUNDS OR TWO ARE USUALLY THE HARDEST. IT'S THE SAME THING WITH WHERE WE ARE WITH INFLATION, AND GETTING DOWN TO 2. SOUNDS EASIER THAN IT IS. EVEN THOUGH WE'RE HOVERING IN THE THREES. APRIL WAS JUST ONE DATA POINT IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. WE HAD SEVERAL MONTHS THAT WERE HOTTER THAN EXPECTED, BUSTING PEOPLE'S HOPES THAT WE'D HAVE A FED CUT BY NOW. PCE IS WHAT THE FED PAYS ATTENTION TO. CPI IS WHAT US CONSUMERS FEEL. AND WHEN YOU ADD IN BACK FOOD AND ENERGY, THAT CAME IN HOTTER THAN EXPECTED. AND THERE'S INFLATIONARY HEADWINDS TO CONSIDER TOO. SO WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT FADING AWAY, TAKE THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, FISCAL POLICY, YOU KNOW, WHERE THE MONEY IS BEING SPENT. WE'VE GOT STUDENT LOAN FORGIVENESS PROGRAM, IN FULL SWING HERE. PLUS THE CHIPS ACT IN INFRASTRUCTURE. I BELIEVE WE'RE SCHEDULED TO SPEND OVER $100 BILLION BY YEAR END. AND FOLKS, THAT IS INFLATIONARY. >> WHEN CONSUMER DOES TYPICALLY FEEL LIKE THIS. AND I'M LOOKING AT SOME OF THE DATA FROM THE CONFERENCE BOARD AND THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA THAT CAME OUT THIS MORNING SAYING COMPARED TO LAST MONTH, CONFIDENCE IMPROVED AMONG CONSUMERS OF ALL AGE GROUPS IN TERMS OF INCOME, THOSE MAKING OVER 100 K EXPRESSED THE LARGEST RISE IN CONFIDENCE. BUT SIX MONTH MOVING AVERAGE BASIS CONFIDENCE CONTINUED TO BE HIGHEST AMONG YOUNGEST. THE UNDER 30 FIVES AND THEN THE WEALTHIEST CONSUMERS AS WELL. WHAT DOES THAT ALL MEAN AND CORRELATE FOR INVESTORS WHO ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT, OKAY, WHERE IN MY OWN CONFIDENCE DO I STILL FEEL CONFIDENT PURCHASING OR BUYING INTO THE BROADER MARKETS RIGHT NOW? YEAH. >> YOU KNOW, YOU BROUGHT UP A GREAT POINT, BRAD. AND HERE'S THE THING. WE WANT TO MAKE SURE YOUR RISK APPETITE HERE IS IN LINE WITH YOUR INVESTMENTS, ESPECIALLY NOW THAT PEOPLE ARE FEELING REALLY CONFIDENT BECAUSE WE ARE IN A POINT IN TIME THAT IS LESS VOLATILE THAN USUAL. AND THAT'S DANGEROUS BECAUSE IT TENDS TO LULL INVESTORS INTO COMPLACENCY. WHAT'S HAPPENING IS PEOPLE ARE JUST, FRANKLY, GETTING TOO COMFORTABLE AND CONFIDENT WHERE WE'VE HAD RELATIVELY LESS VOLATILE VOLATILITY IN THE PAST 18 MONTHS, WHERE THE S&P 500 WAS DOWN OVER 2% ONLY ONCE, WENT ON AVERAGE OVER THE PAST 20 YEARS, WE'VE ENCOUNTERED AND EXPERIENCED THIS AT LEAST 12 DAYS EACH YEAR, WHERE THE S&P 500 IS DOWN OVER 2. SO BE MINDFUL OF THAT AS AN INVESTOR. ANOTHER THING, TOO, AS AN INVESTOR, YOU WANT TO ASSESS YOUR PORTFOLIO, MAKE SURE YOU'RE DIVERSIFIED WELL, HERE'S WHY. DIVERSIFICATION IS GOOD, SO THIS WAY, WHEN THE MARKET FINALLY DOES PULL BACK, OR YOU HAVE EXTRA CASH TO PUT TO WORK, YOU KNOW EXACTLY WHAT YOU'RE BUYING, AND THE MORE DIVERSIFIED YOU ARE, GENERALLY, THE MORE CONSISTENT, PREDICTABLE RETURNS YOU HAVE OVER TIME. >> NORA YOUSEF, IT WAS THE RBC WEALTH MANAGEMENT VICE PRESIDENT AND FINANCIAL ADVISOR. NORA, GREAT TO SEE YOU. THANKS FOR JOINING US. >> SURE. >> ABSOLUTELY, EVERYONE. WE'VE GOT MUCH MORE WEALTH AFTER THE BREAK. YOU'RE WATCHING YAHOO FINANCE. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TICKED HIGHER IN MAY. AFTER THREE STRAIGHT MONTHS OF DECLINES. BUT CONSUMERS ARE STILL WARY. STILL ANXIOUS ABOUT THE FUTURE. HERE, WITH INTEREST RATES HIGH, MANY AMERICANS TURNING TO BUY NOW, PAY LATER TO HELP PAY FOR SOME OF THOSE EVERYDAY ESSENTIALS. 39% OF US ADULTS HAVE USED AT LEAST ONE OF THESE SERVICES AT CHECKOUT, ACCORDING TO A BANK RATE SURVEY. NOW, THE US IS PUTTING PROTECTIONS IN PLACE TO REGULATE BUY NOW, PAY LATER PLATFORMS MORE LIKE CREDIT CARDS. SO HOW WILL THIS HELP PROTECT VULNERABLE CONSUMERS? JOINING ME NOW WE'VE GOT SEBASTIAN WITKOWSKI, WHO IS THE KLARNA CO-FOUNDER AND CEO, PLUS OUR VERY OWN JULIE HYMAN HERE WITH US FOR THE CONVERSATION. SO SEBASTIAN, FIRST AND FOREMOST, AND WE THREW A LOT AT YOU THERE OUT THE GATE. BUT WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT HOW THE CONSUMER IS BEING DEFINED RIGHT NOW, WE'VE SEEN THIS MOVE FROM THE CONSUMER'S RESILIENCE TO THE CONSUMER IS GENERALLY HEALTHY TO THE CONSUMER IS STRETCHED. HOW WOULD YOU DEFINE THE CONSUMER BASED ON WHAT YOU'RE SEEING AT KLARNA? >> WELL, I THINK IT'S ALMOST INTERESTING BECAUSE LIKE ONE OF THE KEY ELEMENTS OF THE BUY NOW, PAY LATER PRODUCTS THAT WE OFFER IS ZERO INTEREST. AND SO TO SOME DEGREE, WE'RE SEEING, YOU KNOW, A CONTINUOUS ACCELERATION OF OUR GROWTH AND, AND PREFERENCE AMONG US CONSUMERS DUE TO THE FACT THAT ACTUALLY FROM THAT STRETCH, A LOT OF THAT STRETCH COMES FROM THE HIGHER INTEREST RATES ON THE CREDIT CARDS AND OTHER LENDING PRODUCTS. RIGHT. AND ACTUALLY, TO SOME DEGREE, BUY NOW, PAY LATER BECOMES A MORE ATTRACTIVE OFFER. SO IT'S SLIGHTLY DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH LIKE WHAT IS, YOU KNOW, ARE WE MAYBE SEEING A STRONGER GROWTH AND A STRONGER SENTIMENT AMONG OUR CONSUMERS THAN WHAT YOU SEE IN GENERAL IN SOCIETY DUE TO THAT FACT? >> WELL, AND SEBASTIAN, WE JUST SAW SOME FIGURES ON THE SCREEN THAT YOUR DEFAULT RATES ARE STILL VERY, VERY LOW. I DO WONDER IF YOU ALL HAVE HAD TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN HOW MUCH CREDIT YOU ARE. YOU KNOW, ISSUING OUT THERE. ARE YOU APPROVING FEWER BUY NOW, PAY LATER LOANS AS YOU ARE GETTING MORE FOLKS WHO ARE APPLYING AND, YOU KNOW, ARE YOU SEEING A LOWER QUALITY OF CREDIT CONSUMER WHO'S TRYING TO APPLY? >> IT'S A GREAT QUESTION. LOOK I THINK A LOT OF THINGS THAT ARE NOT REALLY UNDERSTOOD ABOUT BUY NOW, PAY LATER, THE DURATIONS WE ISSUE ARE SO SHORT, THEY'RE 30 DAYS. THE BALANCES ARE $150 COMPARED TO A CREDIT CARD OF $6,000. WE DON'T OFFER REVOLVING, WHICH IS HOW MOST PEOPLE BUILD OUT THE SIGNIFICANT PARTS OF DEBT. AND SO AND IT'S FIXED INSTALLMENTS. SO THE FACT IS THAT LIKE THE LOSSES ARE ALWAYS LOWER. AND WHEN WE WANT TO CHANGE UNDERWRITING METHODOLOGY, WE DO IT IN REAL TIME. AND MORE THAN 50% OF OUR BALANCE SHEET ARE UNDERWRITTEN ACCORDING TO NEW STANDARDS IN JUST 60 DAYS. SO THE ABILITY AGILITY TO ADOPT TO MACROECONOMIC CHANGES IS MUCH, MUCH, MUCH HIGHER. SO SEBASTIAN IF I SORRY TO SO I JUST WANTED TO PICK UP ON SOMETHING YOU JUST SAID. >> SO I GUESS WHAT I'M ASKING IS, HAVE YOU CHANGED YOUR UNDERWRITING STANDARDS THIS YEAR AS THE MONTHS HAVE GONE ON? YOU KNOW, BECAUSE OF WHAT YOU'RE SEEING OUT THERE? >> NO, I MEAN, WE MADE THE MAJOR CHANGES ALREADY BACK IN 2022. AND SINCE THEN WE'VE ACTUALLY RATHER SEEN, YOU KNOW, SLIGHT RELAXATION OF UNDERWRITING IN MORE RECENTLY BECAUSE WE SEE THAT OUR POPULATIONS ARE DOING REALLY WELL. LOSSES ARE 20, 30% BELOW INDUSTRY STANDARDS. AND AGAIN, THE GOOD THING IS WE GET SO FAST FEEDBACK LOOPS. RIGHT? SO IF WE WOULD SEE EVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOSSES THAT WE WOULD ATTRIBUTE TO MACROECONOMIC SHIFTS, THEN WE COULD ALSO MAKE CHANGES MUCH FASTER. >> YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE PIECES OF DATA THAT WE CONTINUALLY TRACK IS COMING OUT FROM THE CONFERENCE BOARD, CAME OUT FROM THE CONFERENCE BOARD TODAY HERE AND WITHIN THE CONFERENCE, CONFIDENCE SURVEY DATA, THEY TALK ABOUT THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT ARE TRACKING A POSSIBLE RESURGENCE IN RECESSION AND THE CONCERNS AROUND THAT AS IT RELATES TO KLARNA. YOU KNOW, WHAT ARE THE UTILIZATION LEVELS, THE UTILIZATION RATES THAT YOU WOULD KIND OF COMPARE NOW VERSUS THE PAST TWO, AND KIND OF HOW DOES THAT MEASURE UP, I THINK IT IS ACTUALLY HAS BEEN ON IMPROVING SIDE. I WAS MORE CONCERNED AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME, TO BE FAIR. I FELT THAT LIKE WHEN I WAS LOOKING AT CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN THE US, I WONDERED HOW MUCH OF THE US SALES OF CHRISTMAS WAS DRIVEN BY, YOU KNOW, A TOUGH DISCOUNTING BY THE RETAILERS AS, AS OPPOSED TO, LIKE, SENTIMENT. MY IMPRESSION IN THE LARGER IMPRESSION, LOOKING AT OUR NUMBERS FOR THE LAST SIX MONTHS IS NOT THAT YOU'RE SEEING THAT WORSENING TREND THAT YOU READ IN OTHER PLACES IN MEDIA AND SO FORTH. RIGHT? SO WE'RE NOT SEEING THAT. BUT AGAIN, I'M NOT ENTIRELY SURE TO WHAT DEGREE. IT'S BASICALLY ALSO CONSUMERS CHOOSING KLARNA AND OF THAT OF THAT PURPOSE, BECAUSE THEY SEE US BEING A MORE ATTRACTIVE PRODUCT IN A HIGHER INTEREST, MARKET. >> SEBASTIAN, I DO WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT THAT CFPB NEW SORT OF RULE, RULING, IF YOU WILL. I KNOW IN A BLOG POST YOU GUYS TALKED ABOUT THAT YOU DIDN'T THINK IT WAS NECESSARILY APPLICABLE. THESE CREDIT CARD STANDARDS FOR BUY NOW, PAY LATER COMPANIES. AND I WONDER WHAT YOU THINK THE BIGGEST SORT OF MISHAPS MENTION IS ABOUT BUY NOW, PAY LATER VERSUS CREDIT CARDS. WHAT DO YOU THINK? MAYBE REGULATORS AREN'T UNDERSTANDING. AND WHAT DO YOU THINK MAYBE CONSUMERS DON'T UNDERSTAND? >> WELL, I THINK FIRST OF ALMOST LIKE IT'S NOT LIKE IT'S ENTIRELY UNREGULATED. WHAT IT IS JUST FALLS INTO THE SAME TYPE OF REGULATION THAT YOUR ELECTRICITY BILL AND YOUR PHONE BILL AND OTHER THINGS LIKE THAT HAVE BEEN. AND THE REASON WE HAVE NEVER BEEN CONCERNED WITH POTENTIALLY, YOU KNOW, OVER EXTENDING YOURSELF ON YOUR CARRIER BILL TO THE SAME EXTENT THAT WE'RE WORRIED ABOUT YOUR CREDIT CARD, IS IT DOESN'T CHARGE INTEREST RATES, YOU PAY IT BACK VERY QUICKLY. AND, YOU KNOW, WITHIN 30 OR 60 DAYS. AND THE EXPOSURE, I MEAN, THE AVERAGE ORDER VALUE MAY BE $150, $100. AND THAT'S EXACTLY THE SAME FOR THE TYPE OF CREDIT THAT WE ISSUE. SO IT IS A, A MORE HEALTHY FORM OF CREDIT. IT'S A BETTER ALTERNATIVE TO USING CREDIT CARDS. AND THAT'S WHERE SOMETIMES IT GETS MISUNDERSTOOD IN MEDIA. BUT WITH THAT SAID, AT THE SAME POINT IN TIME, WE WELCOME THESE CHANGES, THAT THE CFPB SUGGESTED BECAUSE THERE ARE BASICALLY GOOD STANDARDS THAT ANYONE LENDING MONEY SHOULD APPLY. IN OUR OPINION, ABOUT MAKING SURE THERE'S GOOD CONSUMER PROTECTION. I'M NOT AN ANARCHIST. I DON'T BELIEVE THAT. LIKE, YOU KNOW, A MARKET SHOULD OPERATE WITHOUT ANY RULES. SO I THINK THERE'S GOOD TO HAVE SOME RULES. AND IT ALSO MAKES SURE THAT, LIKE EVERY PLAYER IN THE MARKET IS, IS BEHAVING APPROPRIATELY AND WITH THE BEST INTEREST OF THE CONSUMER. SO THERE'S A BALANCE THERE. BUT I THINK, AGAIN, WHAT'S CRITICAL TO US, WE NEED MORE COMPETITIVE, CREDIT CARD AND BANKING PRODUCTS WE NEED. THAT'S WHY WE'RE SEEING EXCESS PROFITS IN THE BANKING INDUSTRY. WE NEED MORE COMPETITION AND WE NEED PRODUCTS THAT ARE HEALTHIER FOR CONSUMERS THAT ARE EASY TO USE AND EASY TO ALSO ONBOARD. AND THAT'S BEEN THE PROBLEM. IT'S BEEN TOO HARD TO SWITCH, WHICH IS WHY WE'RE SEEING EXCESS PROFITS. AND SO WHEN YOU START INTRODUCING A LOT OF FRICTION, THE DOWNSIDE YOU HAVE, YOU MAY TRY TO DO THAT TO PROTECT CONSUMER INTEREST. AND, BUT AT THE SAME POINT OF TIME YOU'RE ALSO REDUCING COMPETITIVENESS IN THE MARKET. SO THERE'S A TRICKY BALANCE THERE, SEBASTIAN, I ALSO SWITCHING GEARS ONCE AGAIN, I WANTED TO ASK YOU ABOUT A NEW ANNOUNCEMENT YOU GUYS MADE ABOUT CUTTING DOWN YOUR SALES AND MARKETING SPEND IN THE FIRST QUARTER BY 12. YOU DID THAT IN PART THROUGH THE USE OF AI, YOU KNOW, BASICALLY INTERNALLY YOU'RE CREATING AI GENERATED IMAGES AND SUCH FOR SOME OF YOUR CAMPAIGNS. AND I THINK THIS IS INTERESTING, NOT JUST CLASS SPECIFIC, BUT SORT OF THE RIPPLE EFFECT THAT AI IS HAVING ON, SAY, AD AGENCIES FOR EXAMPLE, AND OTHER THE ECOSYSTEM IN WAYS THAT WE DON'T NECESSARILY UNDERSTAND QUITE YET. >> NO. EXACTLY THAT. RIGHT. AND THAT'S WHY WE I MEAN, BECAUSE WE ALREADY MADE AN ANNOUNCEMENT THAT GOT QUITE A LOT OF ATTENTION BACK IN JAN, FEB AROUND THE FACT THAT, YOU KNOW, AS A CONSEQUENCE OF OUR AI CUSTOMER SERVICE CHATBOT, THAT WE HAD HAD A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN ERRANDS THAT WERE HANDLED BY, AGENTS, ABOUT 70% OF ALL OF OUR ERRANDS ARE HANDLED BY THAT. AND THAT MEANT THAT ABOUT 700 JOBS OF A REDUCTION OF NEED OF KLARNA. NOW, AGAIN, THESE PEOPLE WERE EMPLOYED BY COMPANIES THAT EMPLOYED 200,000 PEOPLE. THEY WERE, IN THE SHORT TERM, BASICALLY WORK FOR OTHER CLIENTS OF THOSE CUSTOMER SERVICE COMPANIES. BUT IN THE LONGER RUN, IT IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THOSE KIND OF JOBS. AND WE FELT THAT WE WANTED TO ENCOURAGE POLITICIANS AND SOCIETY TO THINK ABOUT THIS PROACTIVELY AND NOT HIDE THE FACT THAT IT WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THOSE KIND OF JOBS AND THAT, YOU KNOW, WE THINK SOCIETY SHOULD TAKE SOME CAREFUL CONSIDERATION ABOUT WHAT TO DO ABOUT THAT. I THINK THIS THIS ANNOUNCEMENT IS SIMILAR IN THE SENSE THAT WE SEE THAT IT WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON FREELANCING JOBS IN PHOTOGRAPHY IN AND COPY AND CREATIVE AND TRANSLATIONS, NOT TO SAY THE LEAST. AND WE WANT AGAIN TO SHARE BECAUSE YOU GET A LOT OF NOISE, YOU GET A LOT OF LIKE NICE ANNOUNCEMENT ONLINE. YOU SEE SOMETHING ON X, BUT THEN YOU REALIZE LIKE IT'S A NICE DEMO, BUT IT'S HARD TO PUT IN PRACTICE. BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE WHAT WE CAN ACTUALLY HEAR AND HEAR. SOME EXAMPLES AND METRICS OF HOW WE ACTUALLY PUT IT TO PRACTICE. IT'S ACTUALLY WORKING, AND IN THIS CASE, ABOUT $10 MILLION OF SAVINGS GENERATED THROUGH, BEING ABLE TO USE THE TECHNOLOGY THAT WAY. >> DO YOU ANTICIPATE ON TOP OF THE $10 MILLION IN SAVINGS THAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE, CUTTING THE SALES AND MARKETING SPEND BY 12% IN Q1 2024, THAT YOU WOULD LOOK TO THIS TECHNOLOGY IN OTHER PARTS OF THE BUSINESS, AND THAT IT COULD ALSO IMPACT THE OVERALL HEADCOUNT MAKEUP FOR KLARNA? >> NO, ABSOLUTELY. I MEAN, WE'VE WE HAVE AND WE'VE SAID SO INTERNALLY AS WELL SINCE AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, WE STOPPED HIRING. SO, WE ARE AND AS A TECH COMPANY, WE HAVE AN ATTRITION RATE THAT'S KIND OF NATURAL. ABOUT 20% LEAVE EVERY YEAR, WHICH IS KIND OF TYPICAL FOR TECH COMPANIES. SO THAT MEANS IF WE STOP HIRING, WE SHRINK AS A COMPANY BY 20% ON AN ANNUAL BASIS. AND THAT'S WHAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING. SO WE ARE SHRINKING. WE'RE GOING TO BE 20, AT LEAST 20% SMALLER, IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS FROM WHEN WE DID THE SIX MONTHS AGO WHEN WE STOPPED RECRUITING. SO THAT'S DEFINITELY THE CASE. I MEAN, AGAIN, I AM A BIG BELIEVER THAT WHAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE IS A KIND OF A SINGULARITY MOMENT IN BUSINESS WHERE THERE WILL BE BUSINESSES WHO, AT THE CORE, HAVE LEARNED HOW TO APPLY THESE TECHNOLOGIES IN ORDER TO CREATE BUSINESSES THAT MOVE AT A TEN-X SPEED TO THE INCUMBENTS AND THOSE BUSINESSES WILL START EMERGING AND ACCELERATING AHEAD OF A LOT OF THE COMPETITION. AND IN MY OPINION, IT'S MY RESPONSIBILITY TO OUR EMPLOYEES, TO OUR SHAREHOLDERS, TO OUR CUSTOMERS, TO, YOU KNOW, ASPIRE TO BE ONE OF THOSE COMPANIES AND USE THOSE TECHNOLOGIES IN SUCH A FASHION, AND SO THAT'S WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO DO. AND WE THINK THAT'S DEFINITELY A THING. I THINK THAT SINGULARITY MOMENT IS MAYBE 6 TO 12 MONTHS AWAY, WHEN WE WILL START SEEING THOSE TRULY AI COMPANIES, ACCELERATE AHEAD OF COMPETITION IN DIFFERENT SECTORS AND INDUSTRIES. SOME REALLY COMPREHENSIVE THOUGHTS THERE, AND STRATEGY ON BOTH THE CORPORATE FRONT AS WELL AS THE CONSUMER FRONT. >> SEBASTIAN MARKOWSKI, WHO IS THE KLARNA CO-FOUNDER AND CEO, AND OUR VERY OWN JULIE HYMAN AS WELL HERE. THANKS SO MUCH. THANK YOU EVERYONE. WE'VE GOT MUCH MORE ON WEALTH AFTER THE BREAK. YOU'RE WATCHING YAHOO FINANCE. THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT MILLIONS OF AMERICANS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THEIR FINANCES. AND ACCORDING TO A NEW REPORT FROM ACORNS, FOR MANY AMERICANS, THE SITUATION SEEMS DIRE. ACCORDING TO THEIR 2020 FOR MONEY MATTERS REPORT, NEARLY 25% OF AMERICANS ARE WORRIED THEY MAY EXPERIENCE SOME LEVEL OF HOMELESSNESS. TO HELP US DIVE INTO SOME OF THE NUMBERS FROM THIS REPORT IS NOAH KERNER. ACORNS CEO. NOAH. NOAH, GREAT. GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE WITH US. I MEAN, I'M JUST KIND OF FLABBERGASTED AT THE AMOUNT OF PEOPLE THAT BELIEVE THAT THEY MAY GO HOMELESS BECAUSE OF THEIR FINANCIAL SITUATION. I MEAN, WHAT'S PLAYING INTO THIS, AS THE DATA IS TELLING YOU FROM THE SURVEY? >> YEAH. >> THANKS FOR HAVING ME ON, BY THE WAY. I'M NOT I MEAN, I'M NOT VERY SURPRISED. I THINK WE'RE IN A TIME WHERE SAVINGS IS NOT REALLY PROMOTED, AND WHAT IS PROMOTED IS SPENDING, TRADING, BORROWING, ALL THESE KINDS OF CULPRITS THAT GET PEOPLE INTO TROUBLE, THAT GET EVERYDAY CONSUMERS INTO TROUBLE, AND OBVIOUSLY THE AMERICAN SYSTEM IS CONSTRUCTED AROUND GROWTH, GROWTH GROWTH AND SPENDING SPENDING, SPENDING. SO THE QUESTION IS HOW DO YOU GET PEOPLE SAVING, SAVING, SAVING. BECAUSE THAT'S REALLY WHAT PEOPLE, ESPECIALLY EVERYDAY PEOPLE NEED TO BE DOING A LOT MORE OF. AND THAT'S WHAT WE FOCUS ON AT ACORN. SO WHEN WE DID THIS STUDY TO FIND OUT, NOT, BY THE WAY, NOT JUST THAT ONE FOURTH OF AMERICANS ARE ARE SCARED THAT THEIR CURRENT FINANCIAL SITUATION COULD LAND THEM IN HOMELESSNESS. ONE THIRD OF YOUNG PEOPLE ARE SCARED THAT THEIR CURRENT FINANCIAL SITUATION COULD LAND THEM IN HOMELESSNESS. AND I THINK WHILE YOU HAVE ISSUES LIKE COST OF LIVING, INFLATION, DEBT UNDERPINNING, ALL UNDERGIRDING ALL OF THAT, WHAT YOU HAVE IS LACK OF SAVINGS, LACK OF SAFETY NET. AND THAT'S REALLY WHAT ACORNS WAS CONSTRUCTED TO DO TO HELP PEOPLE SAVE AND INVEST FOR THE LONG TERM. NOT TO HELP PEOPLE TRADE, TO PUT PEOPLE INTO DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIOS OF ETFS. STICK WITH IT OVER THE LONG TERM AND INVEST, SAVE AND INVEST. EVEN JUST THE SMALLEST AMOUNT OF SPARE CHANGE THAT YOU CAN AFFORD. AND IF YOU DO THAT EVERY DAY AND YOU STAY COMMITTED AND YOU STAY DISCIPLINED, THEN OVER THE LONG TERM IT WILL PAY OFF AND PEOPLE WILL BE IN A SITUATION WHERE THEY'RE NOT HAVING THIS KIND OF ANXIETY. >> YOU KNOW, IT'S INTERESTING. I MEAN, A LOT OF OUR PARENTS OUT THERE PROBABLY TOLD US WHEN WE WERE GROWING UP, HEY, BE HAPPY WITH WHAT YOU HAVE OR HEY, WE HAVE FOOD AT HOME. THOSE WERE SOME OF THE SMALL SAVINGS REMINDERS. BUT WHAT IS THE BIGGEST MINDSET SHIFT THAT PEOPLE CAN MAKE RIGHT NOW IN ORDER TO PROMOTE SAVINGS ON A PERSONAL LEVEL THAT CAN HELP ALLEVIATE SOME OF THEIR FINANCIAL STRESSES? >> JUST GET STARTED RIGHT AWAY. DON'T WAIT. I MEAN, INERTIA IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST PROBLEM AMONG ALL THESE OTHER ISSUES, BUT THE BUT THE INERTIA, YOU KNOW, IN SOCIETY WHERE PEOPLE JUST DON'T TAKE THAT STEP TO TAKE CONTROL NOW. SO I WOULD SAY IF YOU'RE SITTING AROUND THINKING ABOUT THIS OR IF YOU FEEL LIKE YOU'RE NOT IN A GREAT POSITION WITH YOUR MONEY, JUST TAKE THAT STEP NOW AND START SAVING AS MUCH AS YOU CAN AND INVESTING AS MUCH AS YOU CAN EVERY DAY. AND THAT WILL NOT ONLY CHANGE YOUR FUNCTIONAL LIFE , IT WILL CHANGE YOUR EMOTIONAL MINDSET. AND THIS IS ONE OF THE THINGS THAT YOU KNOW THAT WE STUDY A LOT AT ACORNS. WE DON'T JUST FOCUS ON THE PRODUCTS, WE ALSO FOCUS ON THE EMOTIONS AND THE ANXIETIES, YOU KNOW, AND WHAT OFTEN AMOUNTS TO LACK OF HOPE AND A FEELING THAT YOU DON'T HAVE PEACE OF MIND BECAUSE YOU DON'T HAVE THAT MONEY. THERE FOR YOU WHEN YOU NEED IT. >> YEAH. IT'S INTERESTING. WHILE WE HAVE YOU, THE JUST FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS AMONG DIFFERENT GENERATIONS AND HOW THEY'RE MAKING SURE THAT THEY'RE MANAGING THAT I MEAN, THEY'RE ALL IN VERY DIFFERENT STAGES. MILLENNIALS, FOR INSTANCE, ARE ESSENTIALLY IN SOME OF THEIR OR ENTERING INTO THE PEAK EARNINGS YEARS, SOME OF THEM, AT LEAST ON THE GERIATRIC MILLENNIAL SCALE, MIGHT ALREADY BE IN THOSE PEAK EARNINGS YEARS. YOU'VE GOT BOOMERS WHO ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT, OKAY, THE RETIREMENT, IF WE'RE IN IT, IF WE'RE GETTING TOWARDS IT, HOW DO WE MAKE SURE THAT WE HAVE ENOUGH? AND THEN YOU'VE GOT THE GEN ZERS WHO ARE JUST DOING REALLY GOOD AT ENTERING IN THE WORKPLACE AND WORKPLACE AND ROASTING MILLENNIALS AT THE SAME TIME. ALL OF THESE THINGS CONSIDERED WHO IS DOING THE BEST ON A RELATIVE BASIS? >> I THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. I DON'T KNOW THAT ANYBODY'S DOING THE BEST ON A RELATIVE BASIS RIGHT NOW. I WOULD SAY THAT THE BEST THING YOU CAN DO IF YOU'RE A PARENT, THE BEST THING YOU CAN DO FOR YOUR KIDS IS TO START INVESTING IN THEM IMMEDIATELY. OBVIOUSLY, IF YOU START AT BIRTH, RIGHT, $5 A DAY INVESTED AT BIRTH ALL THE WAY THROUGH RETIREMENT AT AN 8% COMPOUND RATE BECOMES OVER $4 MILLION. AND IF YOU'RE 18 AND YOU DO THE SAME THING, YOU HAVE OVER $1 MILLION AT RETIREMENT. SO I THINK THESE ARE THE THINGS THAT HAVE TO START HAPPENING. I MEAN, WHEN YOU LOOK AT PEOPLE IN THEIR 50S AND 60S, I THINK THE AVERAGE AMOUNT THAT PEOPLE HAVE SAVED FOR RETIREMENT IS SOMETHING CLOSE TO $100,000 FOR EVERY DAY. PEOPLE IN AMERICA RIGHT NOW. AND OBVIOUSLY THAT IS JUST NOT THAT DOESN'T WORK. SO I'M NOT SURE THERE'S ANY GROUP THAT'S DOING BETTER THAN OTHERS. I WILL SAY, WHEN WE LOOK AT THE DATA AND AGAIN, NOT TO NOT TO PROMOTE ACORNS TOO MUCH, BUT WHEN WE LOOK AT THE DATA SLICED BY HOW ACORNS CUSTOMERS FEEL VERSUS HOW THE REST OF THE POPULATION FEELS, WE HAVE A 10% LIFT IN PEOPLE'S SENSE OF SECURITY AND PEOPLE'S SENSE OF FINANCIAL WELL-BEING. THAT HAPPENS FROM USING THE PRODUCT. I THINK THAT COMES FROM A COMBINATION OF TAKING CONTROL, STARTING TO INVEST, SAVE AND INVEST SMALL AMOUNTS OF MONEY, MAKING SURE YOU HAVE EMERGENCY SAVINGS, AND ALSO GETTING SMARTER BECAUSE WITH ACORNS, YOU'RE LEARNING EVERY DAY ABOUT HOW TO HOW TO BE MORE THOUGHTFUL WITH YOUR MONEY. ALL RIGHT. >> ALWAYS BE SELLING NO, DON'T EVER LET ANYONE FAULT YOU FOR THAT. NO. ACHERNAR ACORN CEO, WE APPRECIATE THE TIME. NO THANKS FOR JUMPING ON WITH US. >> THANK YOU. >> TAKE CARE. YOU TOO. TURNING NOW TO A TOPIC ON MANY AMERICANS MINDS RETIREMENT. EARLIER THIS MONTH, WE SHARED NEW DATA FROM THE NEW YORK FED THAT MORE AND MORE AMERICANS DO NOT EXPECT TO WORK BEYOND THEIR EARLY 60S. WELL NEARLY 2000 YAHOO FINANCE READERS JUMPED ONLINE TO SHARE SOME OPINIONS, AND HERE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME OF THOSE THOUGHTS IS OUR VERY OWN KERRY HANNON. KERRY, WHAT DID THEY HAVE TO SAY? >> I KNOW, GOOD MORNING. WELL, THEY WERE NOT AMUSED WITH ME SAYING THAT IT WASN'T PARTICULARLY REALISTIC TO THINK ABOUT RETIRING BEFORE 62. THESE PEOPLE WERE SAYING, HEY, COME ON , WE HATED OUR JOB. THERE ARE LIKE THREE COMMON THEMES. ONE WAS HATED MY JOB. BEST DECISION. I EVER MADE TO RETIRE EARLY. THE SECOND THEME WAS THAT HEY, YOU KNOW, I HAD A TRADITIONAL PENSION. IT WAS OKAY. I COULD STEP AWAY. NOW, REMEMBER, ONLY ABOUT 11% OF PRIVATE EMPLOYERS NOW OFFER A TRADITIONAL PENSION, BUT THEY HAD THAT SECURITY SO THEY COULD, WITH SOCIAL SECURITY, STEP AWAY. AND THE THIRD THEME, BRAD WAS SAVING EARLY. THEY SAID, YEAH, YOU KNOW WHAT I STARTED SAVING EARLY. WE HAD PLENTY. WE YOU KNOW, MY WIFE AND I WERE BOTH ABLE TO STEP AWAY FROM WORK BECAUSE WE STARTED EARLY AND IN FACT, THAT CAN HAPPEN. YOU KNOW, FIDELITY JUST CAME OUT WITH THEIR BIG 401 K MILLIONAIRES, YOU KNOW, JUMPED TO RECORD LEVELS. AND THESE ARE PEOPLE. AND WHO'S A41K MILLIONAIRE WHO'S BEEN SAVING FOR 26 YEARS. THE AVERAGE AGE WAS 59. AND GET THIS ONE, THEY SAVED A TOTAL OF 26.6% OF THEIR SALARY. NOW THAT INCLUDED THEIR EMPLOYER MATCH. SO OH MY GOODNESS. SO PEOPLE CAN DO THIS. THIS IS NOT SOMETHING THAT YOU SHOULD NOT DO. BUT I GOT TO SAY THE FINAL THING IS THAT I DID HEAR FROM READERS WHO SAID, YOU KNOW WHAT? I DID RETIRE EARLY AND I REGRET IT, AND I REGRET IT BECAUSE GUESS WHAT? I MISS MY JOB. I ABSOLUTELY LOVED THE WORK I DID. I LOVED THE COMMUNITY. IT MADE ME FEEL RELEVANT. SO, YOU KNOW, WE GOT TO TAKE ALL THESE THINGS INTO CONSIDERATION WHEN WE THINK OF EARLY RETIREMENT. BUT FOR EVERYONE, IT'S THEIR OWN PATH. >> YEAH. LOVE YOUR WORK, LOVE YOUR JOB AND YOU WON'T WORK A DAY IN YOUR LIFE, THEY SAY. BUT HEY, SOME OF US LOVE TO TRAVEL, KERRY, THANKS SO MUCH. WE APPRECIATE IT. >> THANK YOU. >> CERTAINLY EVERYONE THAT DOES IT FOR WEALTH. I'M BRAD SMITH. THANKS SO MUCH FOR WATCHING. YOU CAN STAY TUNED FOR MARKET DOMINATION WITH JULIE HYMAN, JOSH LIPTON THAT COMES UP 3 P.M. EASTERN TIME. YOU DON'T WANT TO MISS IT.
