Elon Musk on Artificial Intelligence

the least scary future I can think of is one where we have at least democratized AI because if one company or small group of people manages to develop godlike digital super intelligence they could take over the world at least when there's an evil dictator that human is going to die but for an AI there would be no death they would look forever and then you'd have an immortal dictator from which we can never escape at some point in the early 21st century all of mankind was united in celebration we marveled at our own magnificence as we gave birth to a singular consciousness that spawned an entire race of machines we don't know who struck first us or them but we know that it was us that scorched the sky the robots going down the streets they're like what are you talking about man we want to make sure we don't have killer robots going down the street once they're going down the street it is too late Google acquired deep mind several years ago do you mind operates as a semi independent subsidiary of Google the thing that makes deep mind unique is that deep mind is absolutely focused on creating digital super intelligence an AI that is vastly smarter than any human on earth and ultimately smarter than all humans on earth combined this is from the deep mind reinforcement learning system basically wakes up like a newborn baby and is shown the screen of an Atari video game and then has to learn to play the video game it knows nothing about objects about motion about time it only knows that there's an image on the screen and there's a score so if your baby woke up the day it was born and by later afternoon was playing 40 different Atari video games at a superhuman level you would be terrified you would say my baby is possessed send it back the deep line system can win at any game it can already beat all the original Atari games it is superhuman it plays the games at SuperSpeed in less than a minute deep mines AI has administrator level access to Google's servers to optimize energy usage at the data centers however this could be an unintentional Trojan horse Eve mine has to have complete control of the data centers so with a little software update that a I could take complete control of the whole Google system which means they can do anything they can look at all your data do anything [Music] we're rapidly headed towards digital super intelligence that far exceeds any human don't think it's very obvious I'm talking about your time allocation I think one of the things you spend an awful lot of time thinking about I know is artificial intelligence it's something that you and I have as a shared interest and it's something that our audience is interested in as well the question here is a lot of experts in AI don't share the same level of concern do you do about the drop pools what what's his last words what what specifically do you believe that they don't well the biggest issue I see with so-called AI experts is that they they think they know more than they do and they think they're smarter than they actually are in general we are all much smarter than we think we are much less smart dumber than we think we are by a lot so this is this tends to play plague smart people like you just can't that they define themselves by their intelligence and they they don't like the idea that a machine can be way smarter than them so they discount the idea which is fundamentally forward that's the wishful thinking that a situation I'm really quite close to I'm very close to the cutting edge in AI and it scares the hell out of me it's capable of vastly more than almost anyone knows and the rate of improvement is exponential you can see this in things like alphago which went from in the span of maybe six to nine months it went from being unable to beat even a reasonably good go player so then beating the European world champion who was ranked 600 then beating Lisa doll for five what would been world champion for many years then beating the card world champion then beating everyone well playing simultaneously then then there was alpha zero which crushed alphago a hundred to zero and alpha zero just learnt by playing itself and it can play basically any game that you put the rules in for if you whatever rules you give it just literally read the rules play the game any superhuman for any game nobody expected that great of improvement to guess those so those same experts who think AI is not progressing at the rate that I'm saying I think you'll find that their predictions for things like go and and other and other AI advancements have their true they're batting average is quite weak it's not good that we'll see this also with with self-driving I I think probably by intermixture self-driving will be will encompass essentially all modes driving and be at least a hundred to two hundred percent safer than a person by the end of next year we're talking maybe eighteen months from now knits of the study on on Tesla's autopilot version one which is relatively primitive and found that it was a forty five percent reduction in highway accidents and that's despite what a pilot one being just version one version two I think will be at least two or three times better that's the current version that's running right now so the rate of improvement is really dramatic we have to figure out some way to ensure that the advent of digital super intelligence is one which is symbiotic with humanity I think that's the single biggest existential crisis that we face and the most pressing one and how do we do that I mean if we take it that it's inevitable at this point that some version of AI is coming down the line how do we how do we steer through them well I'm not normally an advocate of regulation and oversight I mean I think it's once you generally go inside minimizing those things but this is a case where you have a very serious danger to the public and it's therefore there needs to be a public body that has insight and then oversight on to confirm that everyone is developing AI safely this is extremely important I think a danger of AI is much greater than the danger of nuclear warheads if I unlocked and nobody would suggest that we allow anyone to just build nuclear warheads if they want that would be insane and mark my words AI is far more dangerous than nukes far so why do we have no regulatory oversight this is insane which question you've been asking for a long time I think it's a question that's coming to the forefront over the last year where you begin to realize that it doesn't necessarily I think if we we've all been focused in on the idea of artificial superintelligence right which is clearly a danger but maybe you know a little further out what's happened over the last years you've seen artifacts what I'd be calling artificial stupidity you're talking about you know algorithmic manipulation of social media like we're in it now it's starting it's starting to happen how do we how do we is it what's the intervention at this point I'm not really all that worried about the short-term stuff things that are other like narrow AI is not a species level risk it will it will result in dislocation in lost jobs and you know that sort of better weaponry and that kind of thing but it is not a fundamental species level risk whereas digital super intelligence is so it's really all about laying the groundwork to make sure that if humanity collectively your science that creating digital super intelligence is the right move then we should do so very very carefully very very carefully this is the most important thing that we could possibly do and that the AI risk is that I guess it's the sort of a benign AI and they were able to achieve a symbiosis with that AI ideally the AI there's somebody who can members name but had a good a suggestion for what the optimization of the AI should be what's its utility function you have to be careful about this because you say maximize happiness and the AI concludes that happiness is a function of dopamine and serotonin so just captures all humans and checks your brain with large amounts of dopamine serotonin like okay salt we meant it sounds pretty good though how people love it well I like the definition of like the I should try to maximize the freedom of action of humanity maximize the freedom of action maximize freedom essentially I like that definition but we do want to close coupling between collective human intelligence and digital intelligence and a neural link is trying to help in that regard by creating a an interface between the high bandwidth interface between AI and your human brain yeah we're already we're already a sidewalk in a sense that your phone and your computer a kind of extension of you just low bandwidth input-output exactly it's just low bandwidth particularly output I mean two thumbs basically so how do we solve that problem the better thing it's a bamboo dish and we've all we've also come to it now we're all we're all cyborgs we're just low efficiency cyborgs so how do we how do we make it better I think we've got a bowl of a we've gotta build an interface like we're didn't evolve to have a communications jack you know some so there's gonna be essentially the vast numbers of tiny electrodes that are able to read right for your brain of course you know security is pretty important in the situation say the least obviously saying I'm not coming with I'm keeping my brain air-gapped yeah well the a lot of people will choose to do that but it's a bit like in banks is new or lace but not but in the case of your lace it's sort of that that's there from when you're born or it's sort of it's not a sort of I'm sorry - back up yeah kind of a back up this would be this there's a digital extension of you that is an AI Dai extension of you a tertiary layer of intelligence so you've got your limbic system your cortex and and the tertiary layer which is the digital AI extension of you and that high bandwidth connection is what achieves the tights and meiosis I I think that's the best how come I I hope so if you know he's got better ideas what you hear this is the largest global governments um what we have over 139 government here if you want to advise government official to be ready for the future what is three thing or three advice we'll give them well I think the the first bit of advice would be to really play it pay close attention to the development of artificial intelligence I think this is we need to just be very careful in how we adopt artificial intelligence and to make sure that researchers don't get carried away because sometimes what happens is a scientist can get so engrossed in their work they don't necessarily realize the ramifications of what they're doing so I think it's important for Public Safety that we you know government's keep a close eye on artificial intelligence and make sure that it does not represent a danger to the public but what to do about mass unemployment this is going to be a massive social challenge and I think ultimately we will have to have some kind of universal basic income I don't think we're gonna have a choice Universal Music Inc and universal basic income I think it's gonna be necessary so it's mean that unemployed people will be paid across the globe yeah because there is no job machine robot is taking over there will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better but that's simply the that I don't want to be clear these these are not things that I think that I wish would happen these are things simply things that I think probably will happen answers in if if my assessment is correct and they probably will happen then we need to say what are we gonna do about it and I think some kind of a universal basic income is going to be necessary now the output the output of goods and services will be extremely high so with automation they will they will come abundant there will be almost everything will get very cheap the is so I think the biggest I think will just end up doing a universal basic income it's going to be necessary the harder challenge much harder challenge is how do people then have meaning like a lot of people they derive their meaning from their employment so if you don't have if you're not needed if there's not a need for your labour how do you what's the meaning you have meaning do you feel useless these are much that's a much harder problem to deal with and then how do we ensure that the future is gonna be the future that we want that we so like no I mean I do think that there's a potential path here which is and we're really getting into the science fiction or create create you know sort of advanced science stuff but having some sort of merger with biological intelligence and machine intelligence to some degree we are already a cyborg you think like you think of like the digital tools that you have your phone your computer the applications that you have like the fact that I was mentioning earlier you can ask a question and instantly get an answer from Google you know from other things and and so you already have a digital tertiary tertiary layer I say tertiary because you can think of the limbic system kind of the the animal brain or the primal brain and then the court cortex kind of the thinking planning part of the brain and then your digital self as it as a third layer the so you already have that and in anything if somebody dies their digital ghost is still around you know all of their emails and their pick is that they posted in the social media vessel lives even if they physically if they died so over time I think we'll probably see a closer merger of biological intelligence and digital intelligence and it's mostly about the the bandwidth the speed of the connection between your brain and your digital the digital extension of yourself particularly output like when and and output if anything is getting worse you know we we used to have like keyboards that would use a lot now we do most of our input through our thumbs on a phone and that's just very slow a computer can communicate at a trillion bits per second but your thumb can maybe do under 10 bits per second or 100 if you being generous so some high bandwidth interface to the brain I think will be something that helps achieve a symbiosis and between human and machine intelligence and maybe souls the control problem and the usefulness problem

Channel: ritm 1

Views: 1,344,627

Rating: 4.8866282 out of 5

Keywords: elon musk, artificial intelligence, AI, robots, artificial intelligence movie, elon musk neuralink

Id: H15uuDMqDK0

Length: 18min 56sec (1136 seconds)

Published: Mon Oct 14 2019

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[u/aarkwilde]

And on Halloween night, 2019, Deep Mind became self aware.