Elon Musk - My Final Warning

the biggest issue i see with so-called ai experts is that they they think they know more than they do um and they think they're smarter than they actually are um in general we are all much smarter than we think we are but much less smart dumber than we think we are um by a lot so this is this tends to play playing smart people um they just can't they define themselves by their intelligence and they they don't like the idea that a machine could be way smarter than them so they discount the idea which is fundamentally flawed that's the wishful thinking situation i'm really quite close to very close to the cutting edge in ai and it scares the hell out of me um it's capable of vastly more than almost anyone knows and the rate of improvement is exponential um you can see this in things like alphago which went from in the span of maybe six to nine months it went from being unable to beat even a reasonably good go player to then beating the european world champion who was ranked 600 then beating lisa dole 4-5 who'd been world champion for many years then beating the current world champion then beating everyone while playing simultaneously then then there was alpha zero which crushed alpha go 100 to zero and alpha zero just learnt by playing itself and it can play basically any game that you put the rules in for if you whatever rules you give it literally read the rules play the game and be superhuman for any game nobody expected that rate of improvement if you ask those so those same experts who think ai is not progressing at the rate that i'm saying i think you'll find that their predictions for things like go and and other and other uh ai advancements have uh that their batting average is quite weak it's not good um that we'll see this also with with self-driving nitsa did a study on on tesla's autopilot version one which was relatively primitive and found that it was a 45 reduction in highway accidents and that's despite autopilot one being just version one um so the rate of improvement is really dramatic i think that's the single biggest existential crisis that we face and the most pressing one i'm not normally an advocate of regulation and oversight i mean i think once you generally you're on the side of minimizing those things but this is a case where you have a very serious danger to the public and therefore there needs to be a public body that has insight and then oversight on to confirm that everyone is developing ai safely this is extremely important um i think a danger of ai is much greater than the the danger of nuclear warheads by unlocked and nobody would suggest that we allow anyone to just build nuclear warheads if they want that would be insane and mark my words ai is far more dangerous than nukes far so why do we have no regulatory oversight this is insane i'm not really all that worried about the short term stuff things that are like narrow ai is not a species level risk it will result in dislocation uh in lost jobs and you know that sort of better weaponry and that kind of thing but it is not a fundamental species level risk uh whereas uh digital super intelligence is uh so it's really all about laying the groundwork to make sure that if if humanity collectively decides that creating digital super intelligence is the right move then we should do so very very carefully um very very carefully um this is the most important thing that we could possibly do well i mean there are other things that are on a longer time scale and obviously the things that i believe in like extending life beyond earth making life multi-planetary um i'm a big believer in sort of um asthma's foundation series or the principle that you you really want to um you know i recommend reading the foundation series but it's like if if you if you know that there's a there's likely to be we don't know but there's likely to be another dark ages which it seems my guess is there probably will be at some point um i'm not predicting that we're about to enter the dark ages but that there's some probability that we will particularly if there's a third world war then we want to make sure that there's enough of us of a seed of human civilization somewhere else [Music] to bring civilization back and perhaps shorten the length of the dark ages [Music] i think that's why it's important to get a self-sustaining base um ideally on mars because mars is far enough away from earth that that um a war on earth the mars base might survive it's more likely than a moon base but i think a moon base nmr space um that that could perhaps help regenerate life back here on earth would be really important and to get that done before a possible world war three um you know last last century we had two massive world wars three if you count the cold war i think it's unlikely that we will never have another world war game um there probably will be at some point yeah it just could be radioactive rubble um so again i'm not predicting it seems like well if you say given enough time will it be most likely given enough time this is this is has been our pattern in the past so but i think sustainable energy is also obviously really important it's totological if it's not sustainable it's unsustainable well i think that the core technologies are are there with the wind solar with batteries the fundamental problem is that there's an unpriced externality in the cost of co2 um the market economics works very well if things are priced correctly but when there's when things are not priced correctly and something that has has a real cost has zero cost then that's where you get distortions in the market that inhibit the progress of of other technologies so um essentially anything that that produces carbon it puts carmen into the atmosphere which includes rockets by the way so i'm not excluding rockets from this um it has to be a price and that um you can start off with a low price but then that price and then depending upon whether that price has any effect on the parts per million possibility of co2 in the atmosphere you can adjust that price up or down uh but in the absence of a price we sort of pretend that digging trillions of tons of of fossil fuels from deep and under the earth and putting it into the atmosphere we're pretending that that had that that that has no probability of a bad outcome the entire scientific community is saying obviously it has it's going to have a bad outcome obviously you're just you're changing the chemical constituency the atmosphere so um so it's really up to people and governments to put to put a price on on carbon and and then automatically the right thing happens it's really straightforward um it sounds like i'm backtracking but there's actually an argument that more carbon in the atmosphere is is actually good but up to a point so we might actually arguably have been a little carbon starved if you go back 200 years ago and say okay a few years ago like we had like 280 290 parts per million of carbon we're probably a little carbon stock now we're about 400 just past 400 mark i think somewhere in the 400s probably okay uh we don't have to worry about sequestering carbon or anything like that but now if this momentum keeps going and we start going up to 600 800 1000 1500 um that's where things get really squirrely and the sheer momentum of the world's energy infrastructure is leading us in that direction [Music] it's very so it's just very important that the the public and the governor's push to to ensure that the correct price of common is paid that that will be the thing that that matters well right now the only things that are really stressing me out in a big way or ai obviously there's somebody who i can't remember his name but had a good suggestion for what the optimization of the ai should be what's its utility function you have to be careful about this because you say maximize happiness and the ai concludes that happiness is a function of dopamine and serotonin so it captures all humans injects your brain with logical amounts of dopamine serotonin like okay so what we meant well i like the definition of like the i should try to maximize the freedom of action of humanity um maximize the freedom of action maximize freedom essentially um i like that definition

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Id: xJ9pq1xPqqU

Length: 10min 20sec (620 seconds)

Published: Thu Apr 15 2021