Elon Musk's Crazy Predictions

well i i think the the biggest problem terrestrial problem that that earth faces is the sustainable energy problem um and um it's so so i think there's going to be a number of breakthroughs in that arena because like well they kind of have to be but i think that i think there will be as as they say necessity as the mother invention so i would expect to see significant breakthroughs in energy storage and probably is an energy generation as well [Music] although i actually think that there have been some pretty big breakthroughs in solar power there's going to be huge breakthroughs in genetics in in decoding dna and um and then also writing dna so once you've read dna you and figure out where's the the error you want it you want to sort of write the corrective code i mean dna is basically firmware uh you know if you occur if there's a disease that somebody has and it's genetic and you could sort of fix that we may be able to fix uh sort of alzheimer's and so i expect there's going to be a lot of breakthroughs in in the genetics area um that that's that's that's going to be really really huge of course the a lot of the biggest uh breakthroughs are going to be difficult to anticipate in advance yeah but probably the whoppers are energy energy transport um and and genetics um probably there will probably be um some some really big breakthroughs in understanding of the human mind and consciousness when you think of say uh i mean the first controlled powered flight was 1903 with the wright brothers um and then 66 years later we put the first people on the moon i mean that if you'd ask people say in 1900 what are the odds of you know men landing on the moon they would have said that's ridiculous um and if you talk try to talk to them about the internet what are you even talking about like this sounds so crazy um but today uh with a 100 device uh you can you can video conference with anyone in the world i mean i i think directionally i can tell you what i hope the future has as opposed to maybe what it will be because this this may just be wishful thinking um i mean i hope we are out there on um mars and maybe beyond mars the moons of jupiter i hope we're exp we're traveling frequently throughout the solar system perhaps preparing for missions to nearby star systems i think all of this is possible within 50 years and i think that'll be very exciting to do that and i think we'll see autonomy advance tremendously i think that's actually quite near term my guess is in probably [Music] 10 years it will be very unusual for cars to be built that are not fully autonomous 10 years i think almost all cars built will be capable of full autonomy in about 10 years [Music] as it is the tesla cars that are made today have the sensor system necessary for full autonomy and we think probably enough compute power to be safer than a person so it's mostly just a question of developing the software and uploading the software and if it turns out that the compute power that more compute power is needed we can easily upgrade the computer and other manufacturers will follow and do the same thing so getting in a car will be like getting in an elevator you just tell it where you want to go and it takes you there with extreme levels of safety and that'll be normal it'll just be normal like for elevators there used to be elevator operators you get in a guy moving a lever now you just get it you press the button and that's taken for granted once you have dramatically lower cost access to space then then many things are enabled i think you think of like once you got the union pacific railroad then you know getting to the west coast was much faster and much less dangerous yeah you're not likely to sort of end up eating your compatriots in a snowy situation so you just take the train you know in the beginning they thought why the heck are they building that stupid railway there's nobody there's nobody there and they're like but once you build the railway they're like okay now it's easy to get to the west coast uh and now a huge portion of the us population is on the west coast um and actually california is the most popular state in the nation but it used to be well least populous i suppose pretty low so many things are possible once you once the transport problem is solved um so that's why i think it's so fundamental um be careful if you can't get there or getting there is takes a long time and you can't risk and every mission has got to work then it's very hard to innovate um it's got to be that okay some missions won't work and the cost of running the experiments is low that's why i'm harping so much on the cost of transport um so you know once you're there i think like say establishing a base on the moon or base on mars there's just a tremendous amount of work work that's needed to create a self-sustaining base on the moon on mars and it opens up a tremendous amount of opportunity just as the union pacific railroad did by making access to the west coast much easier and i mean outside of the space space realm i think there's still a lot of opportunity in in tunnels i've been saying that for a long time um tunnels are great um they're really great um and uh the boring company is about to finish its first tunnel in vegas i encourage people to copy please copy the boring company uh or do better that'd be great things like things are very are definitely going to go into kind of autonomous locally autonomous uh drone warfare that's where it's at where the future will be i'm just saying let's not i want the future to be this it's just this is what the future will be okay is autonomous drone warfare um and at a local local level uh the you know um okay i can't believe i'm saying this because this is like dangerous but it's simply what will occur is is sort of a drones locally being autonomous um and um but i think we still want to retain sort of the you know authority to damage or destroy uh you know anything that that isn't an autonomous drone keep that authority back here with the person in the loop okay but it's it's the the fighter jet era has passed it's essentially in information theory and physical theory um if you want to understand the nature of the universe and have these have very good protective power physics and computer science okay again i can't emphasize enough how important reusable rockets are the most near-term uh impact from a technological standpoint is autonomous cars like fully self-driving cars like i said that's going to be that's going to happen much faster than people realize so and that it's going to be a great convenience to be an autonomous car but there are many people whose jobs it is to drive so if if [Music] in fact i think it might be the single largest employer of people is dr driving in various forms and so then we need to figure out new roles for what what you know what do those people do um but it will be very disruptive and very quick now and i should characterize what i mean by by quick um because the there are uh quick means different things to different people there are over two billion vehicles in the world approaching in fact approaching two and a half billion cars and trucks in the world the total new vehicle production capacity is about 100 million which makes sense because the life of a car or truck before it's finally scrapped is about 20 25 years so [Music] so the point at which we see full autonomy appear will not be the point at which there is massive societal upheaval because it will take a long time to make enough autonomous vehicles to be to disrupt employment so that that disruption i'm talking about will take place over about 20 years but still 20 years is a short period of time to have i think something like 12 to 15 percent of the workforce be unemployed you

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Id: sfo4osMD1R8

Length: 10min 24sec (624 seconds)

Published: Sun May 02 2021