Developers On Edge

developers are on the edge okay what are on edge what what what are we edging about okay you know I've been edging I'm a big fan it's a double whammy of anxiety for developers at the moment on the one hand the layoffs are dragging on the industry has shed more jobs in a shorter period of time uh than any time since the.com bust over 20 years ago seasoned veterans who have had have recruiters banging at their door non-stop can suddenly barely get a call back and now the threat of AI suddenly got even more urgent and imminent with the launch of Devon if you zoom out though developers are still flying high on Tailwinds that took them to the Moon over the past decade yes hundreds of thousands of people have lost their job in the tech industry but the proceeding hiring Bonanza still leaves us with an enormous and Wealthy industry the wage gains secured during the go- go days are still massive despite the inflation has eroded over the last few years yeah yeah I mean dude food's gotten so expensive holy cow uh contrast the fortunes of Premium programmers in 24 with their situation from 2014 or 20 uh 2008 20 2008 yeah no real talk when I got hired on when I was doing my first internships dude I doe $15 an hour and that was like good 2008 was my first internship $15 an hour baby let's go 15 bucks an hour I was stoked dude I was so stoked 15 an hour in 2018 2008 was huge yeah dude it was my f d oh my my goodness I was freaking out because before that I was working at Texas road housee for $7 an hour washing dishes for 30 hours a week you know how much it sucks to wash dishes my wrist still hurts from grabbing that gosh dang wrist the the sprayer it sucks it's why I take so seriously like typing and having the right stuff and and all that uh Texas Roadhouse mentioned let's go yeah and they're still looking a mighty priv but humans don't react to Absolute status or wealth all the anxiety or exhilaration is the uh is in the Delta are we moving up or down this actually this is a really good point react mention really is that what we're taking out of this is that honestly that's what we're taking out that's what we're taking out of this react mentioned damn it is true though our our DX with respect to time dude our change in X with respect to time is what we measure so much more more often and so like because the reality is what he's saying is actually really accurate which is if you look at like 2008 uh until now wages have just gone up and then in starting in like what 2022 late 2022 they've kind of effectively flatlined or slightly gone down right somewhere right in here has kind of happened in the last few years right and cost of living has certainly gone up most certainly but this raise this percentage raise is much larger than the cost of living percentage raise in these last you know effectively 20 20 years right we we'll call it the last 20 years just to make it easy and so it's funny because this right here this change right here somehow makes things feel way worse even despite the fact that this exists it's funny how a slight downturn or just staying stagnant can feel bad despite like the the percentage of going up is huge you know are are you talking about tech wages only uh not necessarily Tech wages only but yes this is this is specifically about tech but like in modern day like if if I was to talk about another industry let's let's just talk about like uh some form of construction we're talking about uh a woodworker Carpenter electrician anything like that you the wages there barely moved right they were just like very very slow and they've recently in the last little bit have gone significantly up it's wild like we're talking about people were making $20 an hour are now making $45 $50 an hour it's extremely difficult to find anything that's like if you hire an individual you're paying at least this if you're hiring a company you're paying $150 an hour for like anything it's wild how expensive uh like skilled labor has gotten skilled labor has gotten really expensive the trades are wildly expensive right now yeah we make like $100 an hour sure we do make $100 an hour but there's a vast difference you know why I think that's completely okay it's to to make money in our industry requires you sit down in a computer or on a on a chair in a computer and type on a computer for anywhere between one year to 10 years to become okay at it and then to go 10 years to another 10 more years to become decent at it like these are your getting decent years actually getting paid money it's extremely hard to get good at programming and to be good at it and to be effective at it you can be an okay electrician and not nearly the same time it is to be an okay programmer being an okay programmer is extremely difficult to get to most like you got to remember that we don't live in a normal distribution of computer Talent like this is not this is not a distribution of how computer Talent works it is an alpha beta curve okay most exist way way way down low most people clock in clock out and don't think think about things like I would call this the line of being decent that's why when people see these ideas of 10x programmers I like what Theo said 10x programmers isn't because there's somehow some magical programmer that are just incredible it's literally because so many people exist at such a substandard level now me personally I've always gone with the only such thing as a 10x a real 10x programmer is someone that can cause 10x the jobs okay for me that's like the realest programmer is the 10x programmer that causes 10x the jobs like they're able to create such a complex system that you need to hire 10 more people to help them solve their own problems like those are the real those are the real 10x Engineers okay the toms the Ricks you know you know you know what I'm talking about as an electrical engineer I'm definitely a substantial programmer according to my peers oh I would actually like to see some of that because I think that electrical engineering is super super hard so you know how to learn give yourself a little bit of time read juice up that old learning that old like Vigor that you used and I I bet you you will absolutely crush it holy crap I'm a 10x engineer let's go do sweet jobs have 10 more years I think we have easily 10 more years all anxiety or exhilaration is in the Delta are we moving up or down forwards or backwards and right now except for a tiny group of gilded AI Wizards most programmers have either seen their prospects stalled or become more uh precarious yeah I'd say that's fair it's it's it's one of the reasons why I've been thinking harder about if I if I go full time into content creation what is the prospects of coming back to jobs and stuff like that I have a great job right now absolutely love it provides for the family uh what what is tomorrow's what does tomorrow's landscape look like you know just something to think about uh so yesterday's winds are quickly pushed aside to tomorrow's worries there's some irony in this change of Fortune programmers as a group have prospered tremendously by automating other people's jobs over the past half century true and false but true obviously a lot more jobs have been created but it does come at the exclusion of unskilled it's not a lie it's a shift but when it's other people's livelihoods we naturally have a much easier time seeing the big picture that's the aggregate prosperity of the world improves as productivity goes up very great statement here it's a little harder when it's your own profession feeling the pressure pre-at pre- red pre- everything I mean again I I personally for those that are wondering I don't think I think the pressure is simply just because we weigh over hired and I think the second pressure is that there is an abundance of unskilled skilled talent I think that here I'm going to give you a little fax here I think that if you measured from 2008 to 200 16 what you would find is that the new pool Talent exists like this and this is probably like 1 to five this is probably 5 to 10 and this is probably 10 plus right 10 plus being the most dominant thing so there's probably a lot of seniors and there's probably a huge amount of mid to just becoming senior levels and then the unskilled skilled Talent side the the internships all that are probably much much thinner but if you took today I think what you would find is that that unskilled section that section that's barely having like any foot in the door that are just starting out all the consequences of boot camps all of the this is right here and then the rest occupy a much smaller slice and so now this is causing a really weird strain on the market and some people some people are saying they think the unskilled section is bigger maybe it's half the graph right I have no idea what it is but it's vastly changed the market to where we have what used to require like if you like anyone who built a UI and 2010 2011 2008 understands the pain it took to build like an image Carousel like building an image Carousel was extremely difficult this is a task for a for an engineer but now to build an image Carousel it doesn't take effort or time or skill it takes you linking the right Library that's a fundamental shift in engineering jQuery had one hey guess what in 200 in 2010 you know how much jQuery was going on in 2010 it wasn't the jQuery that you're thinking of okay this was early days jQuery okay this was pre- Sizzle pre-pull out the library prebe awesome jQuery okay this is date picker this is date picker by the way did you know the person who wrote date picker later on founded frontend Masters isn't that funny Mark Mark gransky is the one that uh wrote jQuery ui's date picker yui was big yes yui was big during these days this was the yui days people don't realize that uh wow how cool yeah it's fun fact it's just like a fun fact um I didn't didn't know that he was the one that created the date picker and when he did I was just like Sir you made my life so beautiful sir I just want to let you know that I love you right like the date picker was so big it was so big uh UI is still hard in my opinion I'm not so this isn't like I really don't want people thinking that I'm dunking on UI here I'm just saying the problems that you solve as Engineers have vastly changed what was really hard and took a very Advanced engineering skill set to really make well has become mundane maybe it's even better to use the word profane here it's profane right the skill set has been be has been profaned and now to build something like this is just way easier which means we can build more complex sites but anyone that's building something interesting isn't building something that's just an amalgamation of a few libraries and so what I see is this is I see a bunch of really propane no profane profane not propane you goof profane profane okay propane's one of the definitions to make ordinary uh that's like that that should be its the problem is is not respectful of Orthodox religious practices this is not quite the right Google always sometimes has the stupidest definition but a proper definition of profane would be to make ordinary right and so what was once like a very if you were a very hard skill to own is now a very easy thing right right not sacred set apart exactly like this was a hard engineering thing to get it required you to really really hone your skills to do and now it's super super easy so the thing that I see with a lot of uis is that there's a set of companies that are doing genuinely hard things and so they're going to hire people that could write this then there's a set of there's a set of websites that are literally just out marketing websites and they're going to hire people that can then use the wrapper right and that set is right here and those companies are limited there's more jobs in this area than in this area and so we have this huge weird market right now where the prices for basic UI engineering for the first time ever is going down but the prices for good engineering are remaining like level or slightly going up and again this goes back to this graph we saw yesterday which I actually really want to think more about this um anyways the graph looks something like this I actually think that was a pretty cool graph it looks something like this where it was uh difficulty and demand all right and this is like your payability right as there's more demand and more difficulty your pay goes up I think this is kind of a bad graph The more I've thought about it what it really should look like is this is that difficulty demand and then in each spot what you're going to see is like an amount of dollars right there is little dollars in these spots right these contain very little dollars maybe $2 because they can't hire as much and then as it goes up it's going to become more and more dollars to where if you can fall into this you're making the ton of dollars right you're making all the money this right here would be uh like right now ml engineering is just like super in demand and super difficult so it's like it is highly like this is this is currently like one of the places to go and so uh Magic learning is good yes yes can confirm this take yeah so this is bingo mentioned dude I know i' I've literally okay this is Twitch chat and a nutshell by the way everybody for those that don't know I'm over here cre like just dropping wisdom and thoughts that I've had in the shower and all this good stuff and all I'm getting is go mentioned Bingo mentioned how to go up magic learning this is engineering soku I'm over here giving you guys the greatest shower thoughts and you guys are just you're profaning my thoughts okay I want you to know this we're learning till we just have dumb responses come on all right AEM jQuery plugins were easier and better than the garbage we have today in some sense you're absolutely right by the way on this uh we have been regressing for a decade JS are only now starting to catch up to PHP and Ruby prove me wrong I can't prove you wrong you're both right and wrong right like any like any take I know that's like an intense take but you're both right and both wrong right starting a marketing site with a with an ooth login managed user database Payment Processing you could start that like in an afternoon or two that's incredible compared to where we used to be right I'm not saying it's better I'm just saying the basic building of stuff is really amazing Payment Processing back in the day yeah dude I'm on your team on that one f f that racket like really real talk F that racket it is annoying as back in the day remember stripe back in the day and trying to make stripe work or PayPal man Medusa JS was amazing all right it's hard to it's hard to tell how real the pressure actually is though okay the layoffs are indisputable and a tough iring environment and inevitable consequence but the wreckage of the.com bust was clear in a few short years and then it was back to full steam ahead and exuberant Tech analyss told CA uh CES cabbies CES C cabbies in 2017 that self cabbies kbes I was like these KB babies what are we talking about here dude I can't read okay shut up uh in 2017 that self-driving cares were going to put them out of all out of a job in a hot minute that still hasn't happened either fair I still literally get traditional taxi pickup like I get cat called by traditional taxis to this day uh that's the trouble with the future it's awful it's awfully difficult to predict when it will actually arrive all we're doing is making bets and taking guesses by the way the amount of people so I did that video earlier uh what was yesterday dropped my Devon take okay 30 minutes of me taken on Devon including trash dev's opening a lot of people have watched it the amount of people that went in there and be like dude you're wrong you got less than one year left of programming like there's people that still live this okay they still actually think that flying cars are just one year away like the apocalypse feel of average developers is huge still where's my hoverboard flying cars exist now yeah they do and they're horrible okay like I understand you can strap four gigantic propellers on a a car and definitely not call it a quadcopter but call it an airplane I get it yeah I mean sorry it's definitely a car it's definitely not a quadcopter it can drive it has wheels it's like oh okay okay guy like the motorcycle if you've ever seen the flying motorcycle it's literally just two gigantic it's just just two gigantic blades and then like a set of wheels so stupid anyways uh my guess is that uh my guess would be that just like agriculture went from requiring the participation of 97% of the world's population in an age of subsistence farming to a mere 2% required for our industrial process today so too will go the way of the programmer dang well the good news is that right now about .1% of people are currently programmers so you know what that means dude we still got 20 x% jumping people programming the future is alive people we got lots of time hell yeah brother man we got so much good stuff let's go let's go let's go ah cuz remember 2% of 8 billion is a ton of people okay it's a ton of people it's a ton anyways uh that is I don't think we've probably seen the high Watermark of manual programmers I like this see I I actually I actually am on this take because I I do I do have a a basic theory about the this this this this iteration of AI is that we are going to create a bunch of code bases using AIS and these code bases that we create using AIS somebody is going to have to maintain them is this some sort of pyramid it's a ziggurat you wouldn't understand you wouldn't understand a ziggurat don't worry about it um but people are going to have to maintain these code bases and I think what we're going to learn is that this idea of replacing a bunch of programmers with somebody that's going to type some text fundamentally flawed way to describe how you think into a machine that poops out code you realize like what this is going to cause right like it's going to cause some pretty pretty awful code bases out there and then guess what they're not going to be really maintainable and then every time you want to make a change you know what's going to happen so this is what happens right now can I give you a little little fact here this happens right now in programming there is this kind curve that exists that as a product matures the cost of developing a new feature grows my guess is with AI due to the cost of how it processes and how expensive it becomes maybe you're right maybe it costs less than whatever this is and it's able to go for a little bit longer and then the cost of new features and the ability to like maintain and understand the code base and like how much your AI bill is going to be like at the end of the day you should probably buy Nvidia stock now that I'm like really thinking about it it's probably going to be worth a lot of money you know like you know like when I really think about it the person probably making all the W's right now is NVIDIA cuz they just sold people pickaxes and get this the pickaxe makes people have to pay more money and buy more pickax the pickaxes it's like drinking saltwater you got to drink you got to go drink water at the end of the day to like recover from your saltwater drinking it's crazy absolutely crazy uh this is not Financial advice by the way for anyone that thinks this is financial advice uh just remember I'm a yes someone made a picture of me kissing a robot okay hold on hold on hold on if you take Financial advice from me just remember I am somebody who used to smoke meth and I do yell and squeal in videos do you really want to ask me or trust me on it anything not wrong people he's out of line but he's not wrong I yell things on the internet okay I trust former methodics more than Bankers okay well that's also fair I thought Twitter was right only I mean I had I had to do something about that one come on it was so nice I have a couple people on like notification and Madison said such a nice thing about me Madison's like my co-host for live stuff so of course I'm gonna like respond or come on uh that is I do think we've probably seen the high Let's see we let's see I do think we've probably seen the high water mark of manual programmers oh I read that backwards I thought he said I don't think I don't I actually personally think we haven't seen the man the high water mark of manual programmers I just realized this entire tangent was because I misread the sentence um we I don't think we've seen the high water mark for manual programmers I just don't think so uh that maybe our industry and employment charts might look like the Tokyo stock Market when we look back in the future sideways since 1990s uh now that still leaves an enormous industry with plenty of prospects of course if anything AI is likely going to make the tech industry even more integrated in society and thus more valuable but we might we just might not need as many human programmers pounding code with their little meat fingers I'm still on the I'm still on the the the big doubt on these statements for at least the next until the next big Leap Forward I'm on the I'm on a huge doubt right now just like the aggregate value of agricultural industry has uh gone up a lot since the pre-industrial era even if the number of hands in the field have shrunk to almost nothing so while it is hard to do it's useless to worry this is great advice by the way you literally can't do anything if you're worrying worrying makes you learn worse holy there's 3K of us here and he hasn't even shown us our feet fine here there's 3,000 of you guys hey if there's 3,000 of you guys hell yeah hell yeah take that take look at that Gap look at that you you people keep talking about thigh gap F thigh gap look at toe Gap look at that Gap okay dude look at that Gap look at that Gap look at that Gap okay look at how awesome that Gap is look at that look at this I I could put it over my head I can put it over my head what happened uh the future is out of our hands and out of your control no professional has ever successfully resisted automation or redundancy in the face of technological advancement over the long term screaming at Devon will only distract you from enjoying the last glorious years of the golden run we may be in the golden area of programming this may be completely true absolutely enjoy it learn to enjoy it learn to love it do the thing because you want to do the thing it may be 10 years it may be 20 years it it may be 30 years it may be 5 years enjoy it by the way AI will probably automate this out in this in this revolution of AI I think we automate this I think in the next revolution of AI I'd be surprised if we can make it all the way up to here maybe maybe in the next one we could also do this one right and it might not even go that direction maybe it'll only go like this right just real talk I think it's g i think I think all we're going to see is this for this first one the name is the primagen not the Doomer I'm actually the hen is what I like to think I am also the Fagen apparently a Jen

Channel: ThePrimeTime

Views: 196,917

Keywords: programming, software engineer, software engineering, developer, web design, web development, programmer humor

Id: DOdB1e1xrfU

Length: 24min 55sec (1495 seconds)

Published: Sun Mar 17 2024