11 - There will be no programmers in 5 years

welcome Peter I have a critical critical thesis for you I read or I listened to some AI podcast recently and they all mention one fact there will be no programmers in five years this job description will not exist anymore what do you think about this I hope for some critical contrast here okay continue [Music] or any other large language model can just do the whole programming and there are examples which are really astonishing where people go like look I want to have a webpage and just tell the thing create me this webpage looks like this and the follow-up page blah blah blah and it creates the whole stuff fantastic why you have a code you ask him where is the the program error or something went wrong tell me what it does and it fixed it it's just like this so these examples are really mind-blowing I would I would say yes yeah if I say I would say nah the extreme of the sentence it is kind of a clickbait statement it's too much for me there will be programmers but they will be different that's what I would say yeah well if I read if if I read the the studies I am convinced that you are wrong so um I read I found two studies or they quoted two studies 92 of the American coders um already use chat GPT or GitHub co-pilot to create code and it's just six months six months these tools exist on the market and 92 percent already use these tools so people who do not use chair gbt or AI driven coach generators are dead so they will not exist from my perspective but what what even more surprised me is the fact that 41 of the entire code base generated right now on GitHub is not being generated by a human being but rather by AI come on 41 which means it's just 60 percent of of code that is human generated right now so if you ask me give it just another six months there will be like eighty percent of a non-human generated code and another year and there is no human generator related so this job description will not exist if you yeah no completely wrong so what I say is you're right with the numbers maybe what do the eight percent people people are doing maybe they're just called assembler so the thing that I why I'm critical about this is look at the moment nobody really does coding on their own except a few lines so what they do if you go there's a lot of movement of no code low code we have a lot of applications out there where you just click through stuff and code is being generated and not only on the front end the front end is of course the thing where the most of it happens look when I was young I called it the game computer game oh really yeah so I wanted to be like studied chemistry Peter I studied chemistry now yeah but I was also a bit of a computer geek at this time I was even coding hex code really into the computer just typing stuff which was printed out without knowing what is going on compiled code in a way but I try to learn on my own like and how to detect some like basic and stuff and wanted to code and that's what I did manually the first web pages I've written were in HTML in a simple text generator now today nobody does it do this the game developers are just graphical people with a plot like like um art directors who create a movie scene they have no need to know the programming behind it when you're on this on the on the kind of the the surface the UI is absolutely clear that you just do graphics with some logic behind and you know you you come from a company with background where we have this kind of automation tools on the middle layer middleware like workflows you program them not with the if then statements manually you just click buttons and have a lot of graphical interface programming that's what's happening anyway and most of the programmers would have taken code from sub from stack Overflow and put it in there and kind of take what is there if I were to find something I hacked the PHP page for our internal Learning System to have a different logon screen not knowing what I was doing basically by just copying and pasting stuff and now this is bad programming style but it's very often copy and paste anyway so I would say yes that's right and most is not human generated type like in Old Days completely right this is not changing with jet gbt what I rather believe is the layer the level of a developers different one and if you have no clue what program language is if you have no idea how you've never written one statement for yourself or no technical background if you're not a programmer mindset in a way you will fail even if you use Church EBT you just get random you don't it can still create stuff which is not working and you have no skills to judge you have no skills to review it like an editor when you go for a your own social media person if you just have to think create social media you have no idea what it basically does you don't even speak the language that the output comes to you like it creates Chinese and you don't know Chinese it will not work that's why I believe you have some knowledge you need some knowledge and the this the job will stay but completely different that's my belief so maybe we are writing the same thing I again have to disagree because I I read all the Reddit posts like on a daily basis and there are people who are not killed in in program at all and they create like extensions for browsers in just one thing Sim single day or they create new games without knowing how to program so they tell this tool I want this and this is a game to create this and this game which would by the way to contradict your um your message about stack overflow on stack Overflow you wouldn't ever find a game that is is exactly the game that you want to build in your head so it it's a static code and now you can ask chpt without any programming skills to create a game where a snake moves around in in a virtual world playing Punk with another snake whatever and it will create such a game in in in one minute for you so what is the point of view of learning these skills for like two three four years if you can create other things um like with one prompt yeah my my answer to this is the complexity itself if you do this little extensions too if you do like my case if I do like something else snapping for Excel also that's something I can just look up and do it for myself and that's fine if it fails it fails for me so no problem when you go for and that's where most of the programmers work in an integrated world like you you write code or you have something right code for a system in a car or in a in a wind turbine or in a nuclear power plant or you're going in a company you create software like sap also um the risk of having people that have no clue at all to just use a tool to create some output and put it somehow together would not be enough so I believe that's why I say yes you will have programmers maybe not on the extent that we have today not the the ones we you throw a kind of a task over the fence and they just type code or create generate code on whatever way and you assemble it later but the the level of the quality assurance the level of the understanding of how these things fit together also the understanding of the code itself so it's important you should know whether this is No Object oriented programming whether this has some reference pointers or not so the concept of a language needs to be understood otherwise you get something you don't know what it is and you would have to tell the thing you know I need a python code because the only thing that I can plug it into my environment is python if you don't know that python is required and the plug-in required you have no no clue so looking down the line it can be really at the end a couple of years from now perhaps that you have like Engineers that don't need to know all the bits and pieces in in a in a machine they are working for but in the end you still study engineering that you're able to go to the abstraction level that you need okay yeah okay and I asked chechi PT to answer this question so okay let's see will you replace programmers in five years um well programmers will likely continue to exist in five years and be Beyond the role will evolve rather than disappear programmers will focus on higher level tasks such as architecture design problem solving system integration and maintaining ethical standards additionally programming requires human creativity and adaptability to tackle new challenges and develop innovative solutions yeah so well the the I would say this thing is right it tells the right thing that's what I also believe so but it also tells the classical programmer role will probably disappear absolutely that's what Apple does things as well so I think we're not kind of we just put it like you have opposite opinions I don't think so I also believe the developers will vanish like we know them today but this was a trend that was going on anyway look for low code no code programming things or citizen developers that's the path we have been going down anyway it's just much faster now and much better okay now with the two you're reaching the 10 minute Mark and here you know how I have tricked I am the final recommendation for programmers whoever wants to become a programmer or is a programmer so it's one or two sentences from both of us what would you recommend to them ah the under learn architecture learn philosophy learn the concepts behind and then fool around a couple of languages that you know what they look like and then as quickly as possible go for no code low code and Jetty and all the other things that you're familiar with the environment that's my recommendation for you my recommendation would be to learn the problem solving skills or the design thinking skills whatever it is how to solve problems in the in the real world how to talk to customers how to talk to human beings because even if you create programs you need to sell your idea you need to understand the problem all these things that we teach in our training this will become more and more important yeah you will still code every now and then but probably 90 percent of your work will be problem solving and this is absolutely would be my recommendation I totally buy you one so we kind of agree Peter

Channel: Simply Good Business

Views: 19,192

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Id: Swk3OW86uTM

Length: 11min 15sec (675 seconds)

Published: Tue Jul 04 2023