The transportation sector accounts for 28%
of greenhouse gas emissions, and heavy-duty trucks account for 23% of that. Even though transitioning passenger cars to
electric is well underway at this point, we're right at the beginning of transitioning trucks
and semis. But there's a major wrinkle. While EVs are far more energy efficient than
gasoline vehicles, towing a lot of weight takes a major hit on efficiency. Let's explore the future of electric trucks
and just how well batteries stand up to diesel. I’m Matt Ferrell ... welcome to Undecided. Heavy-duty trucks are one of the backbones
for shipping goods around the world, but they’re usually powered by noisy diesel engines, which
means they're also creating a lot of pollution. In the U.S., transportation is the largest
contributor for greenhouse gas emissions, and from a worldwide perspective, diesel truck
engines account for 5% of global fossil fuel derived CO2 emissions. But there's a wave of electric trucks and
semis coming to the market to address this. When you look at how gasoline compares to
battery electric vehicles for energy use, it's pretty clear that EVs come out on top. The fantastic YouTube channel, Engineering
Explained has a [great video](https://youtu.be/S4W-P5aCWJs) breaking down energy and range comparisons
between battery and gasoline, as well as towing impacts. I'll include a link in the description, so
be sure to check it out if you're interested in the math behind this. But in a nutshell, a 200 kWh Cybertruck would
have a range of about 500 miles vs. a Ford F150's full tank providing the equivalent
of 775-1,200 kWh of energy for 437-684 miles of range. That's quite a gap going from 200 kWh to 775
kWh for roughly the same range. Battery wins there. But that's where the big challenge comes in. That's under ideal conditions for just the
vehicle itself. When you start towing tens of thousands of
pounds of cargo, the range on EVs takes a much bigger hit than the gasoline competition. When towing, the range of a gasoline truck
is a little over double the capability of a battery electric truck. They may be more inefficient, but that shear
energy density in a tank of diesel makes up for it. For electric trucks and semis to really be
competitive they need to double the energy density of their battery packs ... or do they? In 2017, Elon Musk stood on stage and announced
the Tesla Semi, which most people are expecting to be a major market disrupter. This all-electric semi-truck should get somewhere
between 300 to 500 miles on a single charge, while consuming less than 2 kWh per mile. That's impressive ... and to do that it's
going to be taking advantage of Tesla's new 4680 battery cells. But even with the 4680 cells, it's still going
to require an absolutely massive battery. We're talking about 5 to 10 times the battery
capacity of a typical Tesla car. While the Tesla Model 3 has battery pack capacities
ranging from 50 kWh to 82 kWh, Semi's might range all the way up to 800-900 kWh. On that exact topic Elon said: “You want something in the order of probably
a 500 kWh pack. What we have in the Model S and X is a 100
kWh pack and probably something like a 500 kWh pack in the Tesla Semi.” Again, that's only in reference to the 300-mile
version, and it's another catch for battery electric trucks: not enough batteries. The massive battery pack and number of cells
needed is one of the reasons for the Semi's production delay. When asked about Semi's launch timeline on
Twitter, Elon said: “We are too cell-constrained right now,
but probably ok next year.” Earlier reports said the company was planing
to start building five Semis a week in a new pilot line near the Nevada Gigafactory later
this year. And add to that the announcement from Pepsi
that they're expecting to be using 15 Tesla Semi electric trucks by the end of 2021. Based on Elon's tweet it sounds like we're
not going to be seeing any significant Semi production this year, but there's still a
chance we could see limited runs ... but 2022 is the more realistic timeframe now. The production delays will get resolved eventually,
so let's take a look at how well an electric truck, like the Semi, stacks up in other areas
like cost. The expected price for the 300-mile range
Tesla Semi is $150,000 and $180,000 for the 500-mile range version. And the reason many companies are excited
to buy it even at that price, like Pepsi, is because of the expected $200,000 savings
in operational costs ... but I'll get into that in a minute. Besides Tesla, the top truck seller, Volvo
Trucks America, is also developing a zero-emission truck. The Class 8 Volvo VNR Electric has a 264-kWh
lithium-ion battery pack that can provide a driving range from 120 to 150 miles, and
be charged up to 80% within 70 minutes. They're expected to start producing the VRN
Electric this year. While it's rated up to 33,200 lbs. and doesn't
have the same range as the Tesla Semi, it doesn't need to. It's a great fit for local pickup and delivery
applications, coping with demanding routes with many stops utilizing a single charge. It has a different use case, but for those
bigger loads, they do have more options coming, like 66,000 lbs and 82,000 lbs variants. For now we still have no prices. Another company is Freightliner, a brand of
the Daimler Group, which also owns several companies, including Mercedes-Benz. The Freightliner eCascadia semi truck is a
100% battery electric that can haul up to 82,000 lbs, with a range of 250 miles on a
single charge. Its 475 kWh battery ... another big boy ... can
be recharged to 80% in 90 minutes, and Freightliner announced that the eCascadia is entering in
production in 2022. The company is also developing the eM2 model,
a medium-duty truck for lighter loads (26,000 to 33,000 lbs.) with a 315 kWh battery can
go 250 miles. Unlike the eCascadia, this model already has
an estimated price of $400,000, four times more expensive than the diesel-powered Daimler
M2 it's based on. Yikes. That much higher cost is a good transition
into how they compare to traditional diesel versions. The best way to look at this is the exact
way the companies buying them will: from the economics perspective. Let's take the Tesla Semi as an example. For our conventional diesel-powered semi truck
comparison, we'll use the 2021 Peterbilt 579 Sleeper. This truck features a 500 hp engine and costs
$146,500, while the 300-mile and the 500-mile versions of the Tesla Semi cost $150,000 and
$180,000, respectively. Although the electric truck has a higher cost
than a traditional diesel, it's in the operation cost that we can see the real benefits. But, to start doing the math, we need to understand
the baseline: 1. According to the Federal Highway Administration,
long-distance trucks can cover upwards of 100,000 miles per year. 2. Semi-trucks get around 6.5 miles/gallon (mpg)
on average. 3. The current average price of diesel in the
U.S. is $2.86/gallon. 4. According to Commerce Express, a semi-truck
can last 750,000 miles, but some can reach 1,000,000. Considering a 6.5 MPG efficiency and an 100,000
miles per year coverage, we've got 15,385 gallons of diesel used a year. Since the current price of diesel is $2.86
per gallon in the U.S., that annual fuel cost is $44,000 ($0.44/mile). For some international comparison, in the
U.K. where diesel is significantly more expensive than in North America, a liter of diesel there
costs about $1.79, meaning $6.79 per gallon (I'm sticking with gallons and miles for the
sake of an apples to apples comparison. Metric is the true measurement system ... yes
... but it doesn't matter for this comparison.). This adds up to $104,462 a year for a traditional
diesel truck in the U.K., giving us $1.04/mile! A little over twice the U.S. When Tesla unveiled the Semi, they stated
that the annual energy cost will be half that of diesel, at $19,231 -- but that statement
was based on a price of $2.50/gallon for diesel, a bit less than the current $2.86. So that $19,231, with today's diesel price,
means a $24,769 savings in the U.S., which is a 56% reduction in cost annually. Still, considering the current average cost
of electricity (9.64 cents per kWh) and the annual energy usage of the Tesla Semi (100,000
miles or 199,489 kWh) we end up with a 1.99 kWh per mile. The cost per mile in the U.S. would be about
19 cents, while in the U.K., where the cost of electricity is 14.4p per kWh (¢19.7),
the cost per mile would be around 39 cents. So a Tesla Semi in the U.K. would cost about
$39,355.25, saving $65,106.29 on diesel. That's kind of nuts. At the Tesla Semi unveiling, they presented
a total operating cost of $1.26/mile against $1.51/mile for a diesel, but there's more
to operational costs than just energy savings. Usually when we talk about the benefits of
EV over gas, yearly maintenance savings comes up as another area, but it's not clear cut
for a semi. If you factor in operation costs from Freightwaves
Sonar to our calculations: * Driver's salary and benefits: $0.78 per
mile * Trailer Financing: $0.27 per mile
* Repairs and Maintenance: $0.17 per mile * Truck Insurance: $0.10 per mile
* Permits, Licenses, and Tolls: $0.03 per mile Half of the recommended maintenance tasks
for class 8 trucks aren't related to the diesel engine, for instance tires are a major cost,
so for the most part we have to consider that the electric trucks will have close to the
same maintenance costs of a diesel truck. Adding up all these expenses to the cost per
mile for fuel and energy, we'd get a total operating cost of $1.79/mile for the diesel
and $1.54/mile for the Tesla Semi in the U.S. And in the U.K., cost per mile would be $2.39
for diesel and $1.74 for the Tesla Semi. So even when factoring that maintenance might
remain the same, electric still comes out on top. Yet, one of the biggest questions that remains
for electric semi-trucks is: will there be enough range day-to-day? According to the Hours of Service regulations
of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (the good old FMCSA), truckers are only allowed
to drive a maximum of 11 hours per day. Considering that a trucker will drive about
55 to 60 miles per hour on average, at the end of the 11-hour driving shift, this could
add up to 605 to 650 miles per day. Of all the models we've covered, only the
500-mile Tesla Semi can come close to that. But, electric isn't the only option to get
off fossil fuels. This is where I might get a little controversial
for some of you: hydrogen. Some companies like Hyundai and Mercedes-Benz
are developing hydrogen-powered trucks utilizing fuel cells. Fuel cells introduce hydrogen and oxygen to
a catalyst generally composed of platinum, which starts an electro-chemical reaction
that produces electricity, heat and water. The electricity is then used to drive the
truck's powertrain. At the end of the day fuel cell trucks are
still electric trucks and use batteries to manage energy generation and storage. The big advantage of fuel cell trucks is that
they can achieve a longer range without sacrificing payload since they have much smaller batteries,
and hydrogen tanks can pack in more energy density. Not to mention the faster refueling times. Charging batteries usually takes hours, while
filling up 120 pounds of hydrogen can be done in minutes. But there are some big challenges with hydrogen. Right now it’s more inefficient to use electricity
to make hydrogen, which in turn is converted back into electric power for generating torque,
rather than just filling up batteries with electricity from the start. In addition, hydrogen is primarily sourced
from natural gas right now using something called steam reforming, so while it’s a
zero-emission fuel when powering a vehicle, it creates carbon emission during hydrogen
production ... although less than using diesel. But that's starting to change with green hydrogen,
which I have a video on if you're interested. Some examples of fuel cell semis come from
Daimler, with the Mercedes-Benz GenH2 Truck that can travel up to 621 miles on a single
tank, which is much closer to the range a trucker drives every day. They expect to start customer trials in 2023
and enter production sometime in the “second half of the decade.” It's pretty vague right now. A more current example is Hyundai, which is
testing heavy-duty fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs) in Switzerland right now and plans
to start selling them in the U.S. in 2022. Most of these companies seem to be ramping
in 2022. And before anyone starts chiming into the
comments that fuel cell is stupid and takes additional infrastructure that doesn't exist,
neither path is has a significant leg up here. Electric trucks are going to require all new
infrastructure too. Tesla's Superchargers aren't capable of delivering
the massive power these battery packs will need for fast charging. That's why Tesla's designed a new charger
specifically for this purpose called the Megacharger, which will be much more powerful than the
current Superchargers. In fact, Tesla and a few other companies are
racing to produce a greater than 1 MW high-power charging standard for electric trucks within
CharIN, which is the industry association behind the CCS standard. Bottom line: there's all new infrastructure
needed to support battery electric trucks. Both electric and fuel cell options offer
viable solutions as diesel alternatives. Both require new infrastructure to support
operation with either fuel cell stations or Megacharger installations near truck depots. So neither has an advantage there over the
other, but unlike passenger vehicles, it's easier to target those station locations because
trucks typically have set routes. With Hyundai already testing fuel cell trucks
in Switzerland, and Pepsi testing Tesla Semis later this year, it's clear that the age of
electric trucks is coming ... soon. And the operational cost advantage of electric
over diesel is going to drive adoption in a big way. So when do you think we're going to see a
flood of electric trucks hitting the market? 2022 seems like the tip of the iceberg to
me. And who's going to be the first major player? Jump into the comments and let me know. If you liked this video be sure to check out
one of the ones I have linked right here. Be sure to subscribe and hit the notification
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and to all of you for watching. I’ll see you in the next one.
