April 26 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition

Douglas cooling and heating serving the Birmingham area for 38 years 9 8 8 3 706 that's Douglas I'm James Spann this is the morning edition of the weather extreme video this is for Tuesday the 26th day of April getting set for a two-day onslaught of severe weather across the state and clearly tomorrow should be the day with the most serious threat now let's take a look at some of these sky cam images around the network this morning first off coming from Hamilton up in Marion County in Northwest Alabama where some light rain is falling had a pretty nasty batch of storms moving into Alabama about 1 o'clock this morning but as expected those weakened with time and there's no severe weather in progress early this morning that's the Haleyville Skycam in Winston County they've had some rain there as well and from Tuscaloosa that's the way things look at 5:00 a.m. early this morning all right got a negative tilt trough to the West producing all kind of active weather mainly north and west of the state and again it's going to provide a 2-day severe weather threat to the state and boy clearly this thing yesterday was just deadly there's a look at the storm reports from yesterday and we had 38 reports of tornadoes in Texas Arkansas and western Tennessee 251 reports of damaging wind and 97 reports of large hail the total reports they're at 386 and clearly this storm you see the couplet they're north of Little Rock that is the most deadly so far the community of Vilonia which is north of Little Rock was hit by what could be one of these EF four ef5 tornadoes based on the reports at least two people have died there and 50 to 60 people are unaccounted for and we all know that you really don't know until the first light of day how bad it is and I'm afraid when the Sun comes up this morning it's going to be a bad bad scene up there but we must move on here there's a look at the radar at 502 this again you can see how it's raining nothing severe back in Northwest Alabama of heavier rain back over North Mississippi in western Tennessee but no watches or no warnings this morning and that's good there's the big picture look at all the flash flood watches from Arkansas North Mississippi and North Alabama North to near Indianapolis the Huntsville Weather Service counties are in a flash flood watch not the Birmingham counties for now and we've got a severe thunderstorm watch down south that's really the stronger storms across the southern states over Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi and that watch is set to expire at 7:00 this morning but there will be more later today as you can see a moderate risk today the enhanced risk is from near Paris Texas to Memphis and again that includes much of Arkansas and parts of the Mississippi Delta and the probabilities within that moderate risk area are 45% basically a 50-50 chance you'll have severe weather within 25 miles of any given point and tomorrow that enhanced risk is right on top of us it runs from near Demopolis up to a lexington kentucky that includes the northern half of Alabama much of Middle Tennessee in parts of Kentucky and same deal a 45 percent probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point and it could be one of these red-letter days and you know again again a lot of this will be determined by mesoscale features we just don't know yet whether it's going to be a red-letter day or not but certainly the potential is there and then on day three which is Thursday the risk is over on the Atlantic seaboard as we get into cooler drier air here's the expected rain for the next five days on top of the rain that's already come down an additional seven and a half inches at Memphis five and a half inches north of Nashville and across our state 1 to 2 inches are clearly likely and up in the Tennessee Valley they're suggesting rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 up there that's where that flash flood watch is currently in effect and we might see some spots down here that go over two inches clearly between and late tomorrow night let's dig a little deeper this is computer modeling this is the oszi GFS at one o'clock this afternoon and you could still see energy coming down the backside of this trough it is not you know completely developed yet and down below that this lead surface low is located west of Chicago and again today we'll have showers and storms around and with the boundary left over from last night's storm you know there could be enough low-level helicity for a few rotating updrafts we'll take a look this is the instability today and one o'clock and clearly the deeper values the higher instability values are west of the state where that moderate risk is in effect certainly it's unstable enough for active convection here in the storms that do form later today in this evening could produce hail and strong winds there's the holistic numbers and they're not that impressive and again we don't expect tornadoes to be a major problem today but again having said that with boundaries from last night's convection there could be enough backed winds in spots for a few rotating updrafts not totally out of the question but we think the main risk later today in the night will be from hail and strong straight-line winds there's the energy holistic index and clearly the bigger numbers are west of here back over that moderate risk area all right tomorrow this is when things could be pretty rough this is at 1:00 o'clock tomorrow afternoon the energy is coming through the base of the trough it assumes a somewhat negative tilt in the new surface low is north of Memphis that is a very favorable area for severe weather in our state and it's under a thousand millibars 996 millibars you've got ongoing convection north of the state and down here the air should be pretty unstable and initially we think tomorrow morning will probably be quiet because of the camping inversion that kind of keeps a lid on things but if we hit as we hit the convective temperature then the cap should break and we'll see storms developing and initially they will probably be cellular and those could produce those strong long tracked tornadoes from North Alabama and north and the Tennessee if Tennessee can destabilize and that remains to be seen mean there's the energy holistic index this is at seven o'clock tomorrow evening and you know those numbers are almost seven units and really anything over one or two is significant that's almost off the chart this is the STP the significant tornado parameter and this is valid at four o'clock tomorrow afternoon and the tornado parameter values are maxed out from about well us to 78 at North Alabama up into Kentucky but remember anything over you know what two is very significant you've got that all the way down to New Orleans and it remains to be seen if the if the instability will be sufficient for that up in Tennessee they might have a big rain match tomorrow morning that kind of foul things up for them in terms of stabilization which I say foul things up it would be good for them but it would foul up the convective development process but whatever clearly the chance of strong tornadoes is on the board and the supercell composite index off the chart for North Alabama and Tennessee and very high numbers all across North Alabama and the Craven Brooks index almost off the chart and you know we could sit here and show you these things over and over again you don't see them like this that often these are you know a pretty rare set up here so potential for a major severe weather outbreak tomorrow we don't get caught up in hyperbole and you know we're not trying to scare people at all maybe it won't be as bad as it all looks here but clearly the players are on the board here for potential for a major tornado outbreak tomorrow and tomorrow night just be close to a good source of weather information we think initially the main threat will begin tomorrow afternoon anytime after the lunch hour and will wind down late tomorrow night well past midnight say well pass me and I probably 1 2 o'clock something like that alright Thursday the trough axis is progressive and we are dry slotted we get into cooler air yeah sounds good high probably 70 to 275 on Thursday a nice North breeze and Friday will be gorgeous probably start today Friday morning in the upper 40s maybe low 50s and wind up in the upper 70s with a cloudless sky for your weekend plans Saturday looks good mostly sunny and a bit warmer low 80s are likely and then Sunday here comes a cold front but this time we've got ridging coming in from the south so this will not be more than likely a severe weather issue you see the big upper load north of us and down below that there's a surface low underneath that and that trailing front is producing a band of showers and storms and it's clearly gonna run out of gas with that Ridge so Monday it just stops and the chance of showers and storms will extend into Monday on Monday so we'll mention a two-day chance of showers and storms Sunday Monday severe weather not looking likely at all with that and then a week from today and a new surface high comes down with enough push to move that thing to the south and it's pretty cold air coming down through the Great Lakes if this is right well check the end of the forecast on May 11th got ridging here and that's gonna be nice and quiet if that happens to be correct and again I remind everybody that May is still tornado season here that's it for the weather extreme video today we'll have notes on the blog the next video by 3:30 or so today and if you're local to us we invite you to watch us on television this evening ABC 3340 in Birmingham at 5:00 6:00 and 10:00 thanks for watching have a wonderful day and God bless being Alabama's news leader means digging deeper to get you the facts working harder so you have all signs of the story and not being afraid to tell the truth every day you award us by making ABC 3340 Alabama's most-watched news and now The 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Channel: ABC 33/40 Weather

Views: 8,275

Keywords: james, spann, abc, 33/40, weather

Id: e7y3bxZ7XZ0

Length: 10min 37sec (637 seconds)

Published: Tue Apr 26 2011