AMD Navi 48 Leak: RDNA 4 Performance, Die Size, Release Date Targets

[Music] if you Google AMD rdna A4 leak funnily enough the most recent reporting I've seen of something that isn't like a Linux driver thing is actually reporting on a recent discussion I had with Fabio from the YouTube channel Ancient gamls now I am of course very happy to see that episode of broken silicon get some traction online I thought it was a really good episode but I do have to admit that I find it funny that at least some of the reporting out there was packaging things we talked about in that episode like it was new information really what me and Fabio were talking about was stuff that I had already leaked in a teia city episode of broken silicon which was rough rdna A4 performance and pricing targets that I was told by people at AMD and then also stuff from months before that which was just the rough outline of what the rdna A4 product lineup is going to look like all of this stuff was from months ago almost almost half a year ago for one of those videos but the fact that people are talking about it again with new articles recently well it makes me realize that there's probably a huge desire out there right now for people to know is there anything new that can be 100% confirmed about rdna A4 and if there is please for the love of God someone tell us and so yeah I decided to put together this video that is just short of having literally all the information but I believe is much closer than before and can tell you basically everything you need to know about na'vi 48 and na'vi 44 to the point that we will dispel some of the fake rumors that are out there as usual and I thought that was important to get out now so without further Ado let me put this information on screen and first let's start by confirming what I can confirm about basically all rdna 4 products so number one they do use monolithic dieses manufactured on the tsmc n4p Node based on conversations I've had this week it sounds like amds node will be single digits better than the 4N node used by Nvidia love lace but they're both from the same family and well if you see similar die sizes if AMD were to pull off a home run you would conclude well then AMD should be slightly better than Nvidia because their node is slightly better the node is only slightly better and should not be looked at as a major boost or reason to have higher performance than an Nvidia counterpart with a similar die size from this generation additionally I also have been told by multiple people that both stricks which actually only uses rdna 3.5 and rdna 4 dedicated GPU engineering samples are currently boosting above 3 GHz with some expectation that maybe some golden samples could hit 3.3 GHz could it get a bit above that I don't know maybe slightly but from what I'm hearing 3.5 GHz sounds completely off the table at this point but you should expect products that are boosting above 3 GHz anything more specific than that just going to say 3 to 3.3 GHz for now and I can also confirm that right now AMD is going around and bragging about the fp8 and Matrix performance for higher tops for their new rdna A4 products and they do expect to be able to sell these cards for AI usage much better than they have been able to depending on what you're going to use it for with rdna three and well when will these cards come out I will talk about this much more later in the video but based on what I am told right now for a long story short I can just say that rdna A4 is definitely ready and a to launch in quarter 4 of this year and there is a slim chance AMD could launch it at some point in quarter 3 if they really wanted to rush it but outside of that that's basically it it will be out by quarter 1 of 2025 and they can do it this year if they want to again I'll talk about that more later because it's actually kind of complicated all right additionally na'vi 41 or 4C or 4X at least according to the people I talk to those seem like alternative code names for the same sort of Flagship multi-chip product that is of course by now canceled but I have conf confirmed of course what it would look like if you want to see that in a video that I've already done and that and then of course the slightly smaller multi-chip na'vi 42 these big Flagship multi-chip rdna A4 products that have since been canceled they had gddr 7 memory controllers but currently I have no proof that AMD ever planned to support gddr 7 with their smaller die configurations I cannot rule out that they might but it doesn't sound like we should be so sure that they do and again I'll talk about that later in this video cuz I've actually got some pretty comprehensive evidence that suggests that I don't know maybe AMD just isn't planning to support gd7 anytime soon but before we get to that part of the video Let's just confirm what I can about the specs so na'vi 48 I am told by all sources that rasterization performance is roughly between that of the RX 7900 XT and the RX 7900 XTX could it be a hair weaker than the 7900 XT sure a hair stronger than the 7900 XTX and raster sure but that is the peg that's basically what I've already leaked but it still remains there with an emphasis though from my source is that it's probably in between them not better than the 7900 XTX and it has a die size that is estimated to be around 300 to 350 millim squared so yeah this is not a small die I think there's been some people out there suggesting that this thing would be lucky to be to 4070 or something that's not what I have from documentation that confirms the die size is on the larger end for a mid-range die and also that does have a 256-bit memory controller for that 20 GB per second gddr6 and that means that yeah they will be able to do 16 gbt easily without having to resort to really expensive methods of getting to higher Ram capacities which really is the point of na'vi 48 to bring current high-end performance down to mid-range pricing now there's also the na'vi 44 die rasterization performance is above the 7600 XT but below the 7800 XT now I know that's not saying a whole lot there but I have been told firmly by multiple people basically that this thing is between na'vi 33 and na'vi 32 in performance so I would suspect it's plus or minus 10% of the 7700 XT and from the sounds of it they could sell this thing for below $400 so that will be an improvement in price performance and that's because well the die is small though this is on a n4p tsmc node that is likely below 200 mm squ technically I can only confirm below 210 mm squ but I think it's probably close to the same die size as a 40 60 TI but again slightly better node and then it does have a 128bit memory controller meaning if they want to give it 16 GB well they'll have to use a clam shell system with gddr 6 now if you'll notice there is nothing on this slide that says anything about Ray tracing performance and that's honestly because what I can confirm and you're about to go duh it is better per compute unit at R tracing than Aran A3 I know big Revelation but unfortunately I don't have anything specific to confirm for these products in exact rate tracing versus the previous gen or nvidia's existing love life so I'm just going to leave it at that yeah raid tracing will be better than AR A3 it is a major focus of this architecture to improve it I do not expect them to try to match Nvidia in Ray tracing per raster yet though so expect it to probably be a bit below like if you had an AMD Rd and A4 card that equal the 480 and raster I would expect the rate tracing performance compared to the 480 to at least be a little bit below it it's it's really rdna A5 from the sounds of it that's really going to go hard for R tracing from what I'm hearing but I can't quantify it exactly yet and so I'm just going to leave it at that when it comes to R tracing performance although I do want to go back to the rasterization performance a bit more because well the sense that I get is that well everyone is certain will be at least around a 7900 X and raster I cannot confirm with anyone right now that they are confident it will get above the 7900 XTX and if that disappoints you well I need to remind you if you look on screen here that the 480 super currently loses to the 7900 XTX and rasterization and therefore if the 8800 XT is 10% behind the 7900 XTX in raster like it sounds like it could be it would still be right next to the 480 in raster roughly trading blows overall anyways which is all this channel leak they were trying to accomplish and so I actually threw together this chart here where I have added the full na'vi 48 performance range that I'm expecting from my sources both the upper bounds which would be just a hair above the 7900 XTX and the lower bounds which should be trading blows with a 4070 TI super I am almost 100% confident it will be within this range here and then actually I even added this this blue little shape here this is what's telling you what my sources are leaning towards so while I can confirm it is between just below a 7900 XT to just above a 79 00 XTX it's only a 20% range these things can vary by 20% before they decide final achievable base clock speeds and voltages and tdps what cooler they're going to use that 20% range really isn't that large of a range even though I know everyone online argues over which card wins by 2% or not 20% is really a reasonable range at this point before launch we're not quite sure what will slide in there so I could put out another leak that moves the blue box up a little higher or slightly lower but that's what I'm hearing right now probably somewhere around a 7900 XT I'm thinking a hair stronger in raster and a lot better in raay tracing but that's basically the best range and estimate I can give you right now and well I do want to address the people that I'm sure are undoubtedly typing right now about how disappointed they are in Rd and A4 that look yes I know a lot of you were hyping up the idea that AMD was about to launch a 4080 super super killer for half the price of a 4080 super and I would say there's still a chance that could happen right I did not say that won't happen but that is not the median outcome I'm expecting as of today and the stuff that this channel leaked last year about the and it was a range the range of rdna A4 performance and pricing the most optimistic outcome was beating the 480 super for about half the price of a 4080 super and there was a range that was below that but even at the low lower end of the range which again I'm not saying it will be at the lower end but even the lower end of the range I just showed you would mean that AMD is about to launch a product that is a 4070 TI super for about $300 less than what you can currently get a 4070 TI super for and well even better rate tracing their existing products that is a big outcome that is good that is good for this Market that would lead even the worst case scenario that I am hearing and I'm not saying it will be the worst case scenario but even the worst case scenario for Rd and A4 sounds like AMD is basically bringing 30% higher performance at least to the $500 price point and then bringing like 7,800 XT performance down to around 400 to 450 and 7700 XT but with 16 gbes of ram potentially below 400 and so on and so forth down the stack that is just an across the board basically 30% increase in price performance on top of a generation that already people are saying is better value than love life that does help Gamers that is a good outcome and that is something to get excited for now next up what do we need to talk about well I want to clarify some things that I'm hearing about gddr 7 supports and even about what the max speeds you should expect for gddr 6 Within products coming out soon and it actually explains some of the specs of the PlayStation 5 Pro if you can believe it I want to talk about that and also clarify when I believe rdna A4 will be releasing but first an ad from a sponsor all Jesse wants this Valentine season is for Maurice to play with her more often but unfortunately he just does not give out play time or kisses for as low of a rate as she does and I think she's just going to have to deal with that but do you know what you don't have to deal with paying too much for Microsoft software if you go to cdkey offer.com this piece of content is sponsored by cdkey offer.com whether it's Microsoft operating systems Office Products or even many of the latest games cdkey offer.com provides PC Gamers with a product this community deserves amongst endlessly elevating component costs fair pricing on Microsoft Keys is one thing that we at least should get I think and you know the mors Law's dead team has been working with cdk offer.com for a very long time and that's because they're good to me good to Dan good to about a dozen family members of friends of mine that have used their services and they've been really really good most importantly to the mo law is dead community so support this channel by using offer code broken silicon to save 25% off Microsoft software or you can also use die shrink to save 3% off everything else on the website like games using either of those codes really helps the channel a ton and it helps save you money so use those codes broken silicon and D shrink at cdkey offer.com today all right the first thing I want to cover in the second half of this video is what the heck is going on and and really what you should expect out of gddr 7 and gddr6 memory speeds in graphics products over the next year or so and it really all comes down to this first of all based on what I'm being told yes the top multi-d expensive versions of rdn A4 that have since been cancelled those did intend to support gddr 7 but the lower end variants those were never planning to use gd7 at least for the initial rdna A4 lineup additionally from what I'm gathering talking to people at Major memory manufacturers yes people like Samsung Micron and HX basically I am told that at least for the next well over 12 months only Nvidia is planning to buy large amounts of gddr 7 you heard me correctly only Nvidia meaning that at least as of right now today there is no evidence that AMD is buying up large stock piles of gd7 for anything even in 2025 so far and at the same time I am told that AMD is purchasing large quantities of 20 GB per second gddr6 for some product that might launch late this year hm I wonder what product that might be right probably rdna A4 and yeah none of those contacts wanted me to show quotes of what they said on screen but they did say I could talk about this subject if I wasn't specific about who at what company said what and that really is what it all comes down to it is very clear that Nvidia will be using gddr 7 for at least some of their upcoming Blackwell products and at least right now they do not have purchases from AMD for gddr 7 but they do have a ton of purchases for gddr 6 and well then I pushed and I said H could an AMD also just use 24 gbit per second or 27 from what I've seen in the headlines for Rd and A4 I mean what the heck is going on with that lightning fast gddr6 Samsung keeps hyping up and I was directly told that the yields on Samsung's faster gddr6 products are actually apparently horrible and I was pointed to look at their page and if you actually do scroll down you can see that to this day Samsung is only claiming that they are sampling this totally real gdr 6 memory and that is what they were saying a full year ago if you check and in fact a year before that they were saying the same thing as well for two years now Samsung has been saying they've totally been sampling this totally real bro product that I I had suggested to me they put out basically to just cover for the fact that gddr 6X is probably going to remain the fastest memory product until gddr 7 comes out by Micron and they wanted to save face again I cannot promise you 100% you won't see any gddr6 products coming out soon that are above 20 GB per second but every person I talked to at Major memory manufacturers insisted that any product in large volumes especially any products that care about price to Performance will be using 20 gabit per second at most and that in fact Micron doesn't even plan to go above 18 gabit per second because well they'll just tell their customers build something that uses gdr 6X if you want something faster which by the way this explains the relatively slow speeds I believe for the gddr6 in the PS5 Pro that others and my I myself have leaked you see if you're Sony and all you care about basically is price to Performance for your product that you're going to sell at Cost then you're going to want to make sure your console uses memory that all the major memory manufacturers can produce so that you can bid all of them against each other and if one of them's cheaper one month get the best pricing and so that basically meant that the fastest Sony could go with is 18 GB per second and any Ultra budget products out of AMD are probably actually going to go for 18 gbit per second as well so I wouldn't even assume that all of hard and A4 will use 20 GB per second and yeah there is basically a race to just support gddr 7 because that's the one that will actually be ready in about a year and so everyone's pretty much not even really pushing Samsung to get the faster stuff out in large volumes either because by the time they would we'll be on gdr 7 anyways so yeah that's what's going on with the memory what about the release date of ran A4 I know that I sounded flaky in that earlier leak slide well let me explain to you now why and I'm just going to explain it to you by saying these quotes I'm about to put on screen all of them are from some of my best sources all of them I've spoken to for years and all of them are part of some of my most legendary leaks and they just don't really agree with each other so if we put these quotes on screen Source number one tells me that technically all this person can confirm on their end is how the driver development for rdna A4 is going but it is going very well and based on that It is Well ahead of where rdan A3 was at this point in the year when it came out so at a minimum this person expects that AMD could announce or tease rdna 4 at computex and then release it in quarter three and this person was surprised when I pushed back on them from what the other people were saying like Source number two who said at a minimum na'vi 48 will be ready to launch to notebooks by quarter one of 2025 and even 2024 sounds likely heck this person could even see AMD maybe pulling off a quarter three launch although this person seem to think it would be a late quarter 3 launch to desktop if AMD really wanted to Rush R A4 out however this person seemed to mostly be expecting a mid I don't know quarter 4 launch or something because there didn't seem to be any impetus at AMD to rush ardin A4 out they don't sound rushed at all and then Source number three told me all I will say is that we person at AMD don't have any mandate to get this thing out the door in 2024 don't misunderstand me we can launch this year if we want to but as far as we are aware Nvidia is only launching the RTX 590 this year for an absurd price which won't compete of course then with the 8800 XT and then the RTX 5070 which will be na'vi 48's main competitor most likely that's not going to launch till 2025 anyways and RD3 is currently selling very well and so unfortunately this is a situation where multiple of my best sources do not entirely agree and so I just wanted to show you the quotes exactly to make it clear why there would be any flakiness out of this Channel about Rd a4s Rel state but you know my reading between the lines on this one now now that you've seen the raw information let me tell you what I think of it I just don't think AMD is rushed at all you know Nvidia is not going to really have any cheaper options in the price range Rd and A4 is targeting this year and rdna A3 is selling very well so far and AMD isn't going for topend performance so the second rdna A4 comes out it will cannibalize all existing rdna A3 products s and then if nvidia's not going to compete there's no reason to launch anytime soon and and I understand why AMD then would probably be Loosely targeting I don't know maybe quarter 4 or quarter 1 2025 and then if they can sell through rdna A3 early yeah maybe they'll activate it to come out sooner rather than later but unless that happens they have no reason to do so but all right so that gets me to the final thing to talk about here and that is should you hash wait for rdna A4 honestly I this I think there's a lot of good deals out there right now and if you can get a really good deal I don't think you need to necessarily wait if you're really eager to get a new graphics card like if you're somebody who's using I don't know an RTX 2070 or a 5700 XT and there's a lot of games you want to play this summer then I think getting like a 7,800 XT for below 490 or getting a 46 DTI 16 gigabyte for close to 400 if you can find one of those crazy Lightning Deals or or a 7900 XT for below 700 I don't think you're going to regret it right like you worst case scenario you'll be if you got a 7900 XT for like $700 or something you will have been gaming all summer before rdna A4 comes out with less vram than the card that you have yeah it might be $100 maybe $200 cheaper but your card will still have had more RAM and you would have still been gaming all summer so I don't think it's dumb to buy now if it's a good deal but you know if you're happy with your graphics card like if you have a 6800 XT and all of your games still run fine then yeah you should definitely wait I mean in in all honesty what I would compare rdna for you know if you should buy an hour wait for it to is is is the rdna A1 like if you're someone who saw a Radeon 7 for $600 you weren't dumb if you bought that like half a year before the 5700 XT came out the the Radeon 7 even after the 5700 XT came out uh performed a bit better it doesn't anymore unfortunately but it you know it did perform better and it did have a lot more vram and it did have uses like for non-gaming tasks that the 5700 XT wasn't as good at so I can see an argument for getting some of the lower high-end or mid-range cards right now if they're at a bargain but only if they're at a bargain and only if you want it now because well I did mention the 5700 XT and Radeon 7 basically the PlayStation 5 Pro is going to use something very close to the architecture in rdna A4 and I do believe that's going to make Aran A4 age very very well just like Polaris and the rx480 Aged incredibly well next to the PlayStation 4 Pro and the Xbox One X so I will say that if you can wait if you're happy with what you got wait you know Aran A4 will compared to current high-end cards cost quite a bit less use less energy have better Ray tracing have more modern features and probably age really well as one of those Bedrock backbone architectures that AMD supports for a very long time it's just it's not like if you bought a 2080 TI for $1,300 right before they dropped in price cuz the 3070 was announced or something and even after scalper prices the 2080 TI never went back up to what you would have just paid so it's not one of those situations it's more of an rdna A1 after Radeon 7 situation right now not a insanity rdna A2 AER situation where the price performance uplift was just massive compared to the previous generation and uh yeah that is going to do it for this video then I really hope you enjoyed it if you did remember to like it remember to share it sharing this video helps so much and to comment for the algorithm talk about this with people below but then also make sure that you're subscribed to the mors laad YouTube channel and ring that Bell button so you don't miss upcoming content I do have more rdna 4 stuff coming I'm of course putting together a Blackwell leak frankly You could argue there are some Blackwell leaks inside of today's information you're not going to miss want to miss that nor all the stuff that I have to say about upcoming Zen architectures as well soon and you know if you really do love the channel though the best way to support it is to join us on patreon just $2 we'll get you access to the Discord to talk to me talk to other members there there's thousands of people that want to have polite conversations with you about what you think about upcoming products and you'll also get access to hundreds of bonus pieces of content that have no ads in them like die shrink one just came out today actually looking at GPU and console economics there's a lot of interesting stuff in there it's just a bonus hourong video without ads and we keep putting them out for our patrons to show our appreciation and because frankly there are reasons it's easy to just put content out on patreon and not anywhere else but yeah anyways though no matter what if you made it this far thank you for watching n

Channel: Moore's Law Is Dead

Views: 83,919

Keywords: AMD, Nvidia, Intel, 10nm, 7nm, RADEON, GeForce, 8nm, 5nm, 6nm, 4nm, N4P, TSMC, 4N, RDNA, RDNA 4, RDNA4, 3.5, 3+, RDNA 5, GDDR6, 20, 18, 27, 32, Gbps, GDDR7, GDDR6X, Navi, 31, 33, 48, 44, N44, N48, N31, N43, N42, N41, 41, 42, 43, FSR, matrix, FP8, 16GB, 20GB, 24GB, 12GB, 8GB, ray, tracing, RX, 8800, 8700, 8600, XT, XTX, 8500, PS5, PlayStation, PlayStation 5, Pro, release, date, benchmark, test, Ada, Lovelace, Blackwell, GB202, GB203, GB102, GB204, GB206, RTX, 4090, 4080, 4070, 4060, Ti, SUPER, 5090, 5080, 5070, 5060, 3nm, N3P, N3B, N3E, Navi 48, Navi 44, 7900, 7800, 7700, 7600

Id: Hbx4AUcQ5do

Length: 25min 38sec (1538 seconds)

Published: Sat Feb 10 2024