【字幕】新加坡前外交部長楊榮文：未來5年中國經濟為何會超越美國？ 面對不確定的未來 怎樣做好準備？ 西方聯手圍堵華為將付出什麼代價？ 《大師訪談錄》（2024-03-07）

I think China will continue to grow slower uh if there's a major global economic crisis when that crisis is over China will be number one in all the major countries interest rates are trending up and China is trending down it's trending down because China did not print money during Co China collected money both U makes boring speeches where information is in the Nuance did you talk to your American friends about Huawei your visit you know when I was asked to be the advisor in Singapore I hesitated because the Americans were going after them and the Singapore government was wavering and I did not want to cause inconvenience to [Music] myself [Music] thanks for the talk um I like your analogy about the Drone above the Raging River I'm here tonight because to me you are either that drone or the operator of that Dr um and so also for the benefit of our young people behind us um you you talked about the rough shape of the world that we can already start seeing uh what will that shape be in 5 years time in your mind and secondly if the trajectory of things goes as as it's going right now I surely the US must see it um what you expect the strategy for countering it or reacting to it will be over the next 5 Years thank you I think China will continue to grow slower uh there's a major global economic crisis when that crisis is over China will be number one so you notice after every economic crisis the Asian financial crisis the global financial crisis after each crisis it moves ahead because it's the least leverage during covid people thought that China had done badly but in fact China did the best they had the fewest deaths and they accumulated huge surpluses so if you cast your eyes the next five years I think China will will still be okay China ciz Asia will be more integrated and there's a good chance that the region will remain stable the wars will be distant Wars for us let's not get ourselves needlessly entangled but do what is right don't take Liberties of ourselves don't do what some countries do which is work from home you know people have become lazy no take take life seriously if if if you spend spend all your time on Hobbies it means you're not doing your work yeah so I would go back to B to Basics strong families social order look at the streets are there homeless people are there people who are neglected public cleanliness these are all indicators of social morale and group healths so the Japanese despite doing poorly I think at the Atomic level they're still very resilient because they maintain a very high level of internal discipline but many Societies in the west are breaking down I read an earlier fascinating essay that you wrote comparing the Chinese Communist party and the Catholic church so which institution is more meritocratic in your [Laughter] view both tries to be meritocratic uh one in the spiritual sense sense the other in intellectual sense both governs true hierarchies both justifies discipline through U moral principles both U makes boring speeches where information is in the Nuance in other words the Delta between the speech and an earlier speech both had cor big corruption problems both are trying hard to overcome them both have succeeded to a point both face longterm challenges both are Fallen both are human you know China so well you recently visit China do you see lack of confidence among Elites could be a problem you're all worried uh C ping has U has kept very tight leash pursue corruption so business people are worried where it is down so the mood is not buoyant unemployment is a problem in many cities but China has a lot of fiscal and monetary flexibility because of the surpluses he has accumulated in all the major countries interest rates are trending up in China is trending down it's trending down because China did not print money during Co China collected money now um many people believe the economic globalization we have been very familiar with over the past four decades come to an end so what's the new form start to emerge because today is live stream I think a lot of people even incl the business world uh uh business people will listen to your remark could you tell us give some indication that what will look like and the in the the next phase of globalization if we call that uh that way in in times like this practice races a head of theory it will take many years before economists and social scientists are able to make sense of what's happening because events are racing much faster it's more important at a time like this to be practical and to work on small things things rather than work on big projects because big projects require stability and on your on many assumptions being correct they're not likely to be not all of them so it's safer to work on smaller ideas you in earthquake zone don't build tall buildings build smaller buildings build buildings which can flex and even if some part collapse you can link them up like in the zook in the souk you know kind of a flexible arrangement I think into the world we are entering where there are all kinds of earthquakes which are hard to predict it is safer to work on smaller ideas and as individuals as families as businesses always assume that there be earthquakes and avoid excessive risk do small things link up try open up possibilities rather than lock yourself in into uh single channels MH that to me is a much better strategy because no one knows does teaching P know what China will be in 20 years time well here some sense but it depends on on where China is moving organically does Biden know or Trump know what the US will be in 20 years time they do not know we do not know history moves according to its own logic and Technology wave after wave are crashing onto our Shores changing things in ways that we could never have anticipated I me we talk about AI of course there's a lot of hype but AI will be everywhere when I visited Huawei last month it's a very impressive organization I'm advised to hu in Singapore and not be able to visit them during covid but decided I had to and I spend three days there and from cloud everywhere the new slogan is intelligence everywhere in other words everything that you do in a classroom in an office motor car new intelligence and allow for the fact that things will change you never get the future right so work on small modules and move in the general direction did you talk to your American friends about Huawei your visit you know when I was asked to be the advisor in Singapore I hesitated because the Americans were going after them and the Singapore government was wavering and I did not want to cause inconvenience to myself but seeing the way they were bullied I said no I will be the advisor I didn't like it because I I I thought it was unfair and unjust okay and having met them they're very spirit the people and Under Pressure they responded I did not know that every year every of the 200,000 employees of Huawei have to do a test on transparency and security they offer a network to companies to individuals so they owe it to the company and individual that they must be secure in this network yeah and the only way to be secure is you must know how the network networks you and how your data is used so there have entire flaw where companies which join the network understand the entire system the software codes and every year they have to sign they have to take a test that they understand the principles so I thought I never read about this media they pain W some evil organization wanting to spy on everybody my belief is this the five eyes have an amazing surveillance Network and we thank Edward Snowden for telling us about it for which he has paid with his life now he has to live in the Serv in Russia they were able to get into everyone's pocket into everyone's computer every click that you made on the computer they're able to retrieve if they want this gives them enormous power and suddenly a we come along oh I can't search this pocket I can't open this door I can't access this draw so they wanted to kill Huawei and the result is the Western countries have shaped policies driven by intelligence considerations the result is they have hobbled themselves they're denying themselves bandwidth the average Chinese today has much more bandwidth than the average American or european because of the policy of H so yes your intelligence people will have an easier time but everybody else pays the price it is not good for them

Channel: 灼見名家 Master Insight

Views: 311,536

Keywords: 灼見名家

Id: yMX2LDE31oo

Length: 11min 55sec (715 seconds)

Published: Thu Mar 07 2024