CLUB LUNCH - "A Lunch with Former Singaporean Minister for Foreign Affairs George Yeo"

uh I'm Keith Richburg if you don't know me I'm president of the FCC and I want to thank you all for coming for this really special event very excited uh before I introduce our speaker who probably needs no introduction because he knows all of you now just want you to know that there are a lot of great events coming up here at the FCC uh on the next Monday on the uh the 13th we have a club screening of the film no ordinary life about camera women it's CNN we've got a breakfast coming up the following day on the 14th uh with Alicia Garcia Herrero on will China's reopening save the world economy we've got another club screening coming up on the 3rd of March and it's going to be a battle box which is the third of the films in the series by uh you know by Craig McCurry I don't know if you saw his first films about Hong Kong that'll be the third in the series we've of course got quiz night coming up and since you've all signed up for this one I'll tell you we're gonna have a special one we haven't even advertised it yet we have a special one that's going to come up on the 16th we're going to have Mr Wang Chung Wei coming up and analyze what's happening at the NPC and the cppcc going on in Beijing so that'll be on the 16th look over the next couple of days for the ad for that hasn't come out yet but uh I'm really excited to have uh Mr Giorgio come speak to us today as you know he's currently a visiting Professor or scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of public policy at the National University of Singapore he served for 23 years which is a very long time at the top ranks of the government in Singapore including in various various Ministry roles including for health for trading industry and also Minister of Foreign Affairs it comes he got a he got his first degree in engineering actually from Cambridge and his uh his MBA at the baker school from Harvard so he's uh across the ocean and uh he began his military career uh you know in the Singapore Army but then he crossed over to the Air Force he defected to the Air Force and he rose to the rank of Brigadier General but now he is uh uh traveling and and uh he's the author of a series a couple of books now two now out a third one to be published called musings and it's a really interesting uh read because it's not your typical you know former Minister's autobiography uh it's actually just a series of uh his thoughts on various issues uh of the day going on in the region and the world uh so without further Ado I want to introduce Giorgio who's going to give us a couple of opening remarks and then we'll have a q a so Mr Joe over to you [Applause] well thank you for having me here this is a very August Institution and as the first chief minister of Singapore once said it was a Sephardic Jew they said I feel like a lion in the den of Daniels I think all of you have fearsome reputations as journalists and as a politician I had to defend myself on many occasions against onslaughts from different direction we're very happy to be here my wife and I left Hong Kong just before Chinese New Year in 2020 and I told my secretary will be back on the sixth day to attend the Quark dinner please have my license all wrapped up ready and we didn't come back for over three years when we landed on Monday there was a sense of returning to a city we lived in for many years quieter seems somewhat more thoughtful but in my heart I tell myself it is temporary June 4th 1989 there was panic in Hong Kong a great outflow Lee Kuan Yew decided that Singapore should offer a backstop to help Hong Kong something called approval in principle scheme which meant that if you're Hong Kong you could apply in advance uh to get the Singapore PR a right of a boat and it's on the Shelf it's valid for three years if you need in a hurry just pick it up the Shelf come to Singapore leave a home he made me in charge of that program I mean I must have come here or easily 10 times in those two years I remember meeting likashing he said no my amateur needs one of these mind you I can't have it in Singapore because we need her here she raised Victor and Richard he said don't worry she's a millionaire so you don't have to you don't have to provide for it so in those days I could make that arrangement I met Hari Hari Layla and I said look if the Indians feel uncomfortable you can come too he said yes but for the passes please offer the approval in principle to the entire tribe there are not many of them and you don't want them divided and I made an arrangement in the end we must have process and approve over 300 000 aips a few tens of thousands came to Singapore among whom many have come back to Hong Kong now whatever discomfort Hong kongers may feel over the events of 2019 it's nothing compared to the fears in Hong Kong in 1989 1990. Hong Kong bounced back very smartly I have no doubts that you're about spec s it plays a special role in the Chinese economy you know cancer patients in order to avoid having to be poked all the time for chemotherapy they put in a podcast and then you inject into the Potter Cafe it's critical that the Potter cap does not infect the body from time to time you've got to flash it with Heparin to make sure that everything flows nicely and that there's no infection that bottle cap isn't very useful to the patient Hong Kong is a Potter Cafe for China if there's a danger they infect the body that's something we have to be done to it but if it fulfills that function is valuable and the body will value it so I say this in the context of the National Security Law which to me was like cleaning the Potter calf flushing with heparin to make sure that it functions as it was designed to function and if there's clarity about its role you will have a long-term purpose because China is a self-contained civilization throughout its history it has safeguarded its homogeneity by building walls so when they sing the national anthem they still talk about building walls the Great Wall which was built in every Dynasty they have Capital markets wall which will never remove in my view they have walls for education for Hollywood movies in the last few years the greatest war of all the great biological war of China and when they talk about the Dual circulation economy it's precisely to keep the internal circulation separate from the external circulation the external circulation can be infected it can be disrupted but you keep the internal circulation safe but the two circulations are connected and Hong Kong is dead connection Singapore at best can be supplementary and complementary but it cannot replace Hong Kong because it's too far away the distance from Singapore to Hong Kong is there from London to Moscow where in different geographical regions but we help each other in fact if we go back to the East India Company into the days of the 19th century China tree Hong Kong was established after Singapore and before Shanghai and today a new China trade is Flowing much greater than the 19th century and both cities not only will be re-energized but will energize each other I think when Lee Kuan Yew was here he talked about a day of Two Cities if I remember correctly it's always been so and God willing you'll always be so I I'm amazed how over the years the two cities are connected not only in terms of the British institutions which you inherited in the southern Chinese culture and the commercial mentality and a Cosmopolitan atmosphere these two cities are more alike than they are different of course there's rivalry but as a penultimate governor of Hong Kong David Wilson once told me is that the competition between Oxford and Cambridge is exaggerated for the purposes of entertainment seriously it wishes it has qualities the other has each knows that it is the Richer for having the other also prosper so I'm very glad to be here very honored to be before you and happy to to answer your questions well thank you very much for that really and we'll I'll get to some audience questions in just a couple of minutes I want to ask a couple of just of my own here which is talk a little bit more about that Hong Kong Singapore rivalry you said it's like Oxford Cambridge I'm surprised you didn't say Harvard Yale that's similar but uh you may not think about it so much in Singapore but in Hong Kong that was in the Press every other day there was a story about people moving to Singapore they're a story about stories about people deciding to move their kids there during the pandemic Singapore's airport is back to pre-pandemic levels where Hong Kong is still struggling I mean didn't Singapore take advantage a little bit of Hong Kong being closed to kind of drop its mass mandates drop its coveted restrictions earlier attract people down for family offices I mean wasn't there a little bit of Singapore saying let's take advantage of this I would say during this entire period of kovid Singapore's moves were not motivated by what Hong Kong did and I may be wrong but my sense was Hong Kong was I Singapore more carefully the Singapore's eye in Hong Kong we were just trying to survive in the case of Hong Kong for a period of time you were trapped in between because China wanted to shut the front gate so that the back gate could be open and up to the beginning of 2022 the internal Universe was free was open and hung the Chinese government wanted the Hong Kong people to enjoy that freedom but unfortunately that back gate could not be open because Hong Kong could not clean up completely and so the buttercaf had to be in place then there was a period when Hong Kong was in a toilet Zone where the back gate could not be open but the front gate was shut and so there was a miserable period for Hong Kong and now you're opening up again and within a few months you'll be back to normal it's no this is completely temporary can I ask you because you know people always talk about the Hong Kong Singapore rivalry I I always I lived in China before so I always add in Shanghai is Shanghai a competitor to both because that's before covid that was emerging as a huge financial center as well no Shanghai is inside the wall because inside the wall it has to conform and comply with Mainland policies and Mainland requirements Hong Kong is outside the wall you know in in Chinese history the region Beyond The Great War is called sideway and sideway is important for the defense of the world it was forward defense but the war itself had beacons had observation posts had internal communication and had Gates which if neither could be slam shot if for whatever reason that gate is slam sharp Hong Kong will be outside the wall not inside Shanghai will be inside so Shanghai and Hong Kong play different roles for China interesting it was that role which it was the robish Macau played during the Ming and Qing Dynasty yeah you know I don't doubt that Hong Kong will bounce back I mean because of the people's resilience I remember coming here in 89 and 90 when I was based in Southeast Asia but One external factor that might affect how quickly they can bounce back is U.S China relations is that correct and I noticed in your book you talked you talked about the trial of strength between China and the U.S and and questioning how is this going to end that you said among other things the U.S you said U.S leaders have to develop a deeper understanding of China and the nature of its society and you say China's understanding of the US is significantly greater than the US's understanding of China can you elaborate on that a little bit well China doesn't want the U.S to leave Hong Kong but if circumstances are such the Americans find uncomfortable to be in Hong Kong because of governmental policies beyond their control Hong Kong will still thrive because Hong Kong plays the rule which is not entirely dependent on the U.S if you look at the 19th century when the Western Powers came to Asia they had difficulty dealing with local populations so the intermediaries who were the company of Taipan and in a strange way there's a reverse flow from China to the rest of the world and the Chinese also have difficulty dealing with local populations and the role of the compradors the role of the taipan in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia have been revised but in the opposite direction mostly Chinese but that network will play a very important role in China's interaction with the rest of the world with or without the U.S but of course the Chinese would rather the U.S not leave because they don't want a cold war and they will try to make Hong Kong comfortable for the U.S so long as the Potter Cavs doesn't infect the body polity I was in Saudi Arabia recently let's talk about aramco being listed in Hong Kong because China buys more oil from Saudi Arabia than any other country and the Saudis are wary about listing in New York or London seeing the way assets could be expropriated so if they live in Hong Kong then the Americans will be here and China must contribute such the substantial American interests are rooted in Hong Kong and interests which are influential in Washington so that the geopolitics can be influenced in a positive and in constructive way talk a little bit more about U.S China relations I mean at the NPC that's going on now we heard some pretty tough words from president XI from the foreign minister Etc saying the U.S has to put the brakes on et cetera meanwhile in the U.S you have this new House of Representatives committee on China it seems like there's a bipartisan consensus Republicans and Democrats in the U.S who normally don't agree on anything have agreed that China is an enemy and a challenge to be confronted I mean are we do you think a confrontation of some sort perhaps even military is inevitable or do you think the two sides will eventually get off that that ramp or in the last five years establishment and popular sentiment in the U.S has turned sharply in the Chinese and it is very worrying it's almost unrecognizable American friends with whom in the past we could talk sensibly about China are now so ideological you're careful about what to say in order not to damage relationships it's very troubling what has happened but this is in the nature of politics that it is driven not by the mind but by mass emotions and and part of it is because of the rights of China and the Americans not being used to the idea another Power to look at eye to eye and not be subservient they don't like that they know it threatens the dominance in the world so there is this growing feeling that China is a challenge it's not a threat to the U.S in any in any sense of the traditional meaning of a threat but it's certainly a threat to us dominance in the world and for the time being there is a western alliance against China because the West has been used to being dominant for a few hundred years and I was reading any an article economist he said the West must stay United on Ukraine to maintain its Authority in the world I'm not sure if that phrase was intended but to me I asked what gives you the authority before the entire world of course historically yes for a long time my values are Universal values your values are backwards and sooner or later you have to walk my path and suddenly there's China which says no I've opened my own path and in some ways I'm better than you and this gives heart to the entire developing world that they can find their own path to the Future separate from the Western path and this at the visceral level is very uncomfortable for the entire West particularly for America which has been so dominant and we just maintained with this network of overseas military bases effectively affects Americana beneath which we could have depoliticized trade we could have international institutions which appeared as if they were public goods but once it became clear that some of the existing rules were not in U.S interests like the WTO the U.S turned against it and China I think in the minds of many in the west and particularly in America represent a challenge to something which has long been taken for granted I don't think we can avoid a multiplayer world China doesn't have any illusion that you can make Indians like to be like Chinese or they can change the Arab world Western World so historically China has always been able to operate in the multipolar world the Indians too except multiple logo so to the Arabs and Africans but the West finds it very difficult so there's a period of transition when the other polls arising there is a defensive response right now coalescing around the U.S and which was which I think will find a Breaking Point in Ukraine because in Ukraine there's a determination by Russia that it will not be subjugated and even if I'm losing I'm a nuclear power and that is my last resort they won't say it openly but they are hinting at it in a sense China is benefiting from it and I think the Ukraine war will help to crystallize multipolar World faster than we expected can we just drill down on Ukraine just a little bit and I asked this question on Monday we had a panel of uh Western diplomats speaking of Ukraine and I asked the question why is it that and from my admittedly Western perspective Ukraine is clear-cut one country a big country invaded its neighbor trying to force its neighbor to adopt certain policies Etc we would think the rest of the world would be on its border that you can't change borders by invading another country but when I go around when I talk to Southeast Asian friends they kind of are more like yeah well Russia had security interests They Don't Really Care that's a European problem what's what's your perspective as a Singaporean Southeast Asian but also someone who knows the world about why it is that this idea that the Ukraine war is a clear case of aggression for people like me is not so much for a lot of other people and to you from the West I must recall Kosovo which was part of Serbia which was broken from Serbia by force and Belgrade was born there was a war which lasted I think two three months to break Kosovo off from Serbia so what is sauce for the goose this sauce for the gender are used to sit next to lavrov and Regional meetings because Singapore is s Russia is r we're permanent Neighbors he was very upset by what the West did on Kosovo so I don't think you can argue against Russia's intervention in Ukraine on the basis of a principle now Singapore is of course upset we see a small guy being beaten up we being smaller still immediately sympathize with a smaller guy but sometimes when you see a conflict it's important to watch the entire video and when you watch the entire video you say oh but it's actually it's not so simple and if you want to find a solution you better watch the entire video and not just depend on one snapshot ask yourself why is it Lenin Putin zelenski have the same first name who was Vladimir Vladimir was the prince of Kiev who when he was baptized had to decide between the Latin right and the Byzantine ride at a time when the church was still United before the great season of 1054. in a famous passage she wrote that he was so beguiled by the richness or Byzantium so he became orthodox the Greek word became Orthodox the Greek word which Rome never fully absorbed and that division between Roman and Greek World persist till today and Kiev was where Muscovy became orthodox now you can escape the fact that Ukraine has always been in between if you look at that atlases of Europe 50 years ago 100 years ago 150 years ago the borders have been shifting up and down so Ukraine is between where tectonic plates meet and I was convinced that Russia would move by the end of 20 21. I told my children because I read Putin's common history of Ukraine and Russia written in July it was to me a quite a good piece of historical writing but when I mentioned it to my American friends they laugh at me they sneered at me this is an evil man how can you read him what can I say but and when he moved I was sure they'll be the Ukraine will be partitioned and it'd be partitioned for decades the way the Korean Peninsula has been partitioned the way Kashmir has been partitioned the way Cyprus has been partitioned it may be possible after two three years to have a ceasefire but there'd be no peace agreement and this partitioning of Europe is opening a new chapter in the history of all of Europe and marks a limit to EU expansion and maybe to Nato expansion and in the nature of these things when you push and the war doesn't fall part of that Force goes back into you opening up cracks in your own Society so ask myself if I were a German and I will see more hush well of course I cannot openly say that I believe what he said but I read him you'll be thinking why are we in this position you are French who are in this position and we are not careful we will see conditions which will lead to a Resurgence of the right of the afd in Germany of Le Pen in France so Europe is in a very difficult position and the lack of clarity about Europe's future is very troubling what is the end point Less in the coming months the ukrainians make great advances where do you stop do you know when to stop if you don't stop then Russia will be forced to escalate if the opposite happens in the next few months Russia makes great gains and it doesn't know when to stop then NATO will be forced to escalate one more cycle I hope both sides will have a wisdom to know when to stop so that is some stability and the stopping point will lead to a partition of Europe of Ukraine I want to get the questions in just a second but I want to get to a couple of things I know earlier you said you just visited Saudi Arabia and uh as a journalist and in a club of journalists we only know uh MBS the Crown Prince because of the murder of the journalist khashoggi but you have a different take on who he is and what he's doing for Saudi Arabia is that right I have to be respectful to you because you were from The Washington Post and was from The Washington Post okay but leaving that aside MBs is doing for Saudi Arabia in a smaller way and a smaller scale what turns Xiaoping did for China he's opening up the country in the dramatic way my wife was going to follow me to Saudi Arabia but she could not because of Earth because mother was not well but she would not have to wear a nabaya who she had two nine years ago I gave a lecture at the iPhone University and they say meet at the male entrance so I shrunk my shoulder but when I went there I realized that male and female entrances were Heritage names now it's open and the boys and girls were mixing freely and not all the women were wearing headgear in fact when I arrived at the airport the immigration officials are met were women and MBs is encouraging Saudi Arabia to go back to its pre-islamic past my the organizers of my of my visit and arranged for me to visit the dinner and I was told please be discreet this is sensitive but when I went to Medina my visit was handled by the governor's office and the governor is mba's older brother saman an official said please post the pictures in the past non-muslims could not visit Medina it was at Mecca Haram now they say no only the most over the prophet's tomb is Haram the rest of Medina is open Saudi Arabia is has its own reform and opening up and this will have a dramatic impact for the future they are changing themselves internally they are changing the foreign policy I think they are trying to find a way out from the yemeni problem they're settling with Syria it will take time and most importantly when Xi Jinping visited real he received a spectacular welcome there was a bachelor's welcome for Trump many years ago but he had a very different quality Steve's visit had us a formality and a ceremony which suggested the opening of a new phase first by bilateral meeting with the Saudi government then the GCC then we've leaders from Arab states and Arab organization go because there's a bit of a tension between him and Bs so the Chinese were sensitive they said after See's visit to the UAE and to Iran to cover all bases the Chinese approaches your internal problems I'm very sorry about them but they're your problem if you want me to be a peacemaker I'm a peacemaker I will not be a troublemaker in February 1945 Roosevelt a few months before he died when took the Crimea Yota to meet Stalin and Churchill there around the table they developed the world the the delineation of the line in the Korean Peninsula Greece to the West others to the Soviet sphere Roosevelt on his way back to the U.S on both the U.S Cruise the Quincy stop by in the Suez Canal and there he met Abdul Aziz for a few days Abdul Aziz the grandfather of MBS all the kings of Saudi Arabia have been his sons and now for the first time the succession will go down one generation but from that meeting with ldr I think two months before he died a rose a key agreement that in return for U.S protection of the Kingdom oil will be denominated in USD and the anchored the dominance of the US dollar in the world which gave the U.S exorbitant privilege the US dollar is a tax on all of us I mean how do you finance all your overseas bases why don't you have to make a choice between guns and butter because I can print more money and so all of us have our coinage debase because you can print money and I cannot but the weaponization of the US dollar is resented and is accelerating a future which should have been kept far as far away as possible by the U.S the result now is an alternative to Swiss alternative credit cards alternative settlement systems alternative currencies being used for international trade so what NBS is doing will undo what his grandfather did and this has huge implications he wants to join brics or all the existing members of bricks have agreed that Saudi Arabia should join so I think there's a fair chance that the coming brics meeting Saudi will be admitted and this will further take the word the world in a direction which he has been used to since the end of the second World War so we're in a period of great transition all of us have got to hoist all this in and ask ourselves what does it mean for Hong Kong what does it mean for Singapore what does it mean for my company what does it mean for me as an individual can I ask you one quick question about Singapore what do you make of this odd Feud going on between the Lee Brothers there was a Facebook post today from one saying he's an exile in his from his own country over the house I mean what are we supposed to make of this I'm a friend my wife and I are friends to all sides is very unpleasant and depressing but I'd rather not come in on a Family Matter sure understood it'll take audience questions Frank Ching is going to come first and then we'll go over here uh Frank in the middle yeah right here behind you there's a mic and then the second floor yeah this is a very interesting discussion covering a lot of ground um I'd like to ask you a question that doesn't have to do with territory but that has to do with uh blood you know the Chinese government uh is not very uh careful in different shading between nationality and ethnicity Xi Jinping very often calls on the Sons and Daughters of the Chinese Nation so why aren't you to follow China follow the Chinese government support the Chinese government Communist Party do you see this as a threat to Singapore and and is this dangerous for countries with large ethnic Chinese populations around the world and the interest to the ethnic Chinese themselves it goes back to the question why the Chinese are the most homogeneous people in the world for thousands of years much more than any other ethnic group on this planet why is that in my first book I talked about the Chinese writing system which is digital the value doesn't change with time I talk about paper which enable China to be more information intensive more data intensive than any other grouping on Earth because China had a monopoly of paper for centuries but there's a fact the Chinese people are more homogeneous than the white peoples than the people of Salvation than any other ethnic group on Earth but a huge margin so the idea of a nation-state the Westfield an idea that a nationality enter their border it's not in the culture without embarrassment declares himself who's a Malaysian foreign Chinese went to Bandung to overseas Chinese who've taken up local citizenships they allowed they must be to the local country and not to China but there are cultural affiliations there are ethnic affiliations and you mind less if your son or daughter marries any Chinese from China or Taiwan or Hong Kong or or Malaysia then if you were to marry say a Caucasian or an Indian or somebody else this is culture so yes in a in a strict way of saying no no we we must draw clear lines but when it comes to food when it comes to marriage when it comes to a sense of what is proper Chinese matters in Singapore three causes Chinese well I could read him in context but the the mainland China is always taking a position the Singapore Chinese we are Singaporean and they know that and I've known Singaporean Chinese who live in China for decades have they become Indian Chinese no this is Singaporean but that this is a source of support for China yes of course if you look back after Tiananmen where did the Investments which spark off the great growth come from no mostly from Southeast Asia initially in Hong Kong then it then others floating so well I'm sorry early no of course not of course not a bit Wonder there's a difference between right no so in Chinese it's clear but when you say sons and daughter of Chinese civilization is not clear no I'm a Chinese I'm not a PRC citizen come on Frank the rest of this a chat over there uh Mr yo I got to say your remarks today have been a tour de force um and uh as a naturalized Chinese citizen I feel I've just fallen into the Gulf between you and Frank on the last question and answer um I lived here 50 years but I've always been a huge admirer of Singapore and you have one of the many aspects that I admire is this ability to produce people like you who can speak authoritatively about world affairs in the way that you just have I can't think of a single Hong Kong minister or person that we have produced anything like the same caliber why is that um is there anything we can do about it [Laughter] no we're all products of our geography and history uh I think there are any number of Hong Kong intellectuals and leaders who know much more about China than we do in Singapore and you could speak much more authoritatively alternatively on China and then they someone from Singapore so each has its own strength and each wishes he has some of the other strength for himself thank you anyway uh one in the corner here yeah Mr yo I'm a big fan and thank you for coming here um my question is if you are engaged engaged as an advisor to the Chinese government to find a permanent solution to dispute open South China Sea what would be your advice oh can you solve the South China Sea dispute in about a minute or two it's historically the South China Sea has been the commons which brought China and the kingdoms and principalities of Salvation together the claims are complicated because they go back to the kmt government and even before that to the Qing Dynasty when they were repeated protest against French incursion into the South China Sea so China's claims research Tennessee are not weak but the 11 dashlines which became nine are egregious because if you're in Malaysia or in Philippines it comes right up to my Horizon you see how can that be fair just because I was not born yet and you made your claim before I was born you mean I must accept those claims so the question is we're trying to be magnanimous in compromising that's the historical basis for this in the border delineation with Myanmar in 1960 between two online and they win they settle on a McMahon line more or less a language they never recognize in China and which is an important part of its dispute with India when I was in tangtong in North Korea on the Chinese river there was an island which is a lot it's just a hopper way I was told this belongs to North Korea that's it how come the ultra in life gave it to the North Koreans in return for the entire yellow being open to navigation on both sides and I suspect the Chinese were generous because on the other side the two Mansion the tuman river where China had no Outlet to the Sea except through the river they wanted the same arrangement in 1956 or seven Ho Chi Minh no 52 in the Gulf of Tonkin the rub of two lines and settled the boundary there was an island on the Chinese side in 1954 55 Ho Chi Minh went to China lie a little Mao he said can we use the island to have a radar station quietly Mao Zedong said take the island belongs to Vietnam and Chinese people are not happy that Mao without going through due process just give an island the Vietnam like that so China is capable of being magnanimous in the way it solves its boundary problems the key is to get the politics right so I'm not unhopeful that slowly we can find win-win solutions for receptionality one on The Veranda back there first thank you very much thanks very much for sharing yeah I uh I have a question about the statement made by Chinese new former Minister I think two days ago in which essentially he said to the U.S please back off before it's too late now I'm wondering from your we should have been expertise whether this may signal potential for China to harden this uh its line for example a more confrontational stance for example supplying indirectly or directly weapons ammunitions to Russia or imposing more sanctions on the United States what do you think thank you when um at the U.S request Xi Jinping met Biden in Bali and had over three hours of meeting with simultaneous interpretation we've only attended toilet break I think all of us breathe a sign of relief a sign of relief that relations will be stabilized and blinking was supposed to visit Beijing to follow up on details and before that Yellen met luha in Davos in a very long meeting broken up only because Yellen had to go to the airport to catch a flight but the balloon case has derailed that process and the Chinese are wondering whether the Americans have departed from the the broad agreement receiving ping and Biden reached in Bali that we took you seriously we negotiated seriously we have a road map so for the first time Xi Jinping mentioned the U.S by name and qingang who is also a state counselor has taken a hotline so I I think the Chinese will send signals to the Americans look if you're not serious then we will take a different approach it's a kind of a shot across the bow did you decide if you want to go back to Bali we go back to Bali but if Bali is forgotten and we are back to where we were before Bali then we'll react accordingly I think that's a signal sorry one here yes I'm uh just curious what do you think uh what happens to Singapore if the um us and China end up in some sort of conflict over Taiwan whether that's blockades sanctions or even military conflict like where does Singapore fit how do you navigate all of that because I imagine the pressures be quite intense yeah when the funeral Marcus was deposed and Corazon Aquino took over the U.S had to leave Clark and Subic which were enormous installations so Singapore in order to maintain the U.S presidency in the region allow the U.S to use facilities in our bases at the time I was a junior Minister and Lee Kuan Yew asked me to make the speech in Parliament to announce that we were embarking on this path and I made a second speech when an agreement was signed to allow the U.S to use a basis was very clear that should there be conflict between the U.S and China over Taiwan Singapore would not be involved I've left government for over 10 years I don't think that position has changed I don't see a Singapore being used for U.S forces to attack Chinese forces the way Thai basis Filipino bases were used during the Vietnam war interesting and then last one there thanks Minister thank you very much great to have you back I want to ask you about Singapore about 10 years ago Lee Kuan Yew spoke to the strange times then and used is Singapore going to be around in 100 years I'm not sure this is what I call constructive paranoia which actually Singapore in Hong Kong both benefited benefit from given the experience pandemic geopolitics climate change which Lee Kuan you also recognized immigration Etc what do you see going forward what an experience over especially the past three or four years in Singapore you think has made it uh more likely Singapore will go forward stronger and and maybe the opposite as well Singapore face great pressures as a result of the crystallization of multipolar world and prolonged periods of oscillation between the Cold War and a cold peace in the region and we we have intimate relations with both China and the U.S and finding a balance point is very difficult and sometimes there may be no sweet spot you know so it's I think we're aware of this our best bet is to get the region to hustle together then from time to time will hide behind the region that is the regional position so please don't force us because we have to be part of the region which you also want us to be part of so Asian is very important for us and if you can keep us in the going concern for the coming decades I think Singapore should be safe and there's a good chance Indonesia which is the biggest country in asean knows that however big it is it is small compared to the big powers and therefore it's better off with a region as neutral than a region which is balkanized Vietnam has a lot of energy and intensity it will no doubt become a very great country in asean but however great however big is no bigger than a province in China and he knows that and Vietnam in order to have a normal relationship with China Nissan so from two ends the biggest country and probably the most dynamic economy they all want a strong asean and we want a strong Asian and I believe the ties in the Filipinos and the Malaysians bruneias even the Myanmar people want that too so yeah we've got a few more years here one there and looking at the time too I know we're gonna get out soon but I living in Hong Kong the Singapore presidential election is expected to be in the second half of this year and there are rumors that the general election will be this year or next year two related questions will you run for president another question is will you re-enter parliamentary politics and running elections either with a ruling party or some other party no to both questions all right that's a quick that was a quick one so we can get in one last one here yeah that was easy um thank you and thank you for including me at the end here um a really great talk so thank you so much sir um I want to take us back to the the question of today which is around uh Ukraine and you also mentioned Kosovo as a precursor uh to why countries in let's call it the global South to be lazy um have have questions about the West's motives and ideas so my question is we're talking about the US and Russia and maybe not really Ukraine to what extent does this unease ignore the agency of the people's involved so do ukrainians have a right to assert their own language culture their version of their history similarly in the Kosovo case the Albanian Muslim population felt very estranged and oppressed from the Orthodox Belgrade so you could say that there is something there and that the current War represents sort of a last gasp of white Colonial 19th century views to impose itself on a country that wants to have a different path so I would just put that out there as a as a different View and ask how will you respond to that thank you there's no easy answer I mean if you apply that principle to Scotland or to Catalonia or to Kashmir or to many parts of Africa then there'll be interminable Warfare so we say look stick to his failure what does a sacrosan and if we have to change borders it should be done peacefully and through the U.N but countries are always in breach so when the U.S recognizes the annexation of the Golan Heights by Israel that was shocking I mean however you try to explain it is shocking so if you Bishop principle then can you accept that principle in other parts of the world in every case it might say it's very generous then there's no principle yeah so there's no easy question and political leaders who say that the solution is one or the other will both fail in the end you have to go back to our common Humanity yeah you can be from Catalonia you can be from Kosovo you can be from Kashmir how do we interact with one another as human beings so my wife had a conference in Singapore recently where doctors from India and Pakistan came and there was a karaoke session at the end and the Indians and Pakistani doctors decided that they will be together because culturally they are one people so if we begin on that basis that we share a common Humanity a common fraternity then many problems can be solved but if we begin on the basis of abstract polar principles then we I think condemned to an eternity of conflict well thank you very much for this uh I'm I'm sorry we don't have another hour because I saw a lot of other hands up but I think the uh if I'm not mistaken I think the headline news you made is you will not be in the Parliamentary election and you will not run for president so I can see what's going to be in the Straits times tomorrow but uh on behalf of the FCC I'd like to know that we are neither yellow nor blue because our colors are both yellow and blue but we'd like to give you a gift inside please so you can take this safely through the airport yeah obviously Pro Ukraine yes sir it's the EU colors as well thank you so much thank you thank you and please respect that our guest has to get out of here be in a car by two o'clock latest because I'm a board member AIA there's a meeting and there's a photograph taking at 215. so I shouldn't keep the others waiting so please excuse me okay just one quick picture here

Channel: The Foreign Correspondents’ Club, Hong Kong

Views: 127,538

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Id: GHHFK6ZXGKM

Length: 57min 12sec (3432 seconds)

Published: Fri Mar 10 2023