Mars. The Red Planet. Like all the other
planets surrounding Earth in the solar system, it’s a wasteland free of life. Thanks to its
relative closeness to the sun and its lack of volatile weather like Venus, it’s seen
as a possible site for human colonization. But how would humanity transform a red planet
of dust and rock into a thriving human colony? It won’t happen overnight - but the
foundations are being set as we speak. Here’s how Mars could become a human colony
if everything went right - year by year. Year One - This has happened already, as
in 2016, the eccentric billionaire Elon Musk - who had long been fascinated by the
idea of colonizing another planet - took his first concrete step towards it. He announced
the first designs of his rocket that would deliver colonists and supplies to Mars.
He called it “Starship”, and his teams immediately began working on the technology
that would make it possible. And the same year, the Russian aeronautical company Roscosmos
successfully sent a probe into the orbit of Mars. Humanity was on its way. Year Three - Humanity was still a long way from
Mars, and there were many obstacles in the way. For one thing, the surface of Mars was deeply
inhospitable to human life. While humans could survive on it in space suits, the journey would
be long and challenging - and that would only be suitable for a short visit, not colonising the
red planet. So in 2018, NASA took the next logical step - they sent a robot there instead. The NASA
InSight Lander was the latest robotic probe on the planet, but this one had a special purpose.
It would place a seismometer on the planet to map it more effectively - both inside and out -
and get a picture of its internal heat transfer. To send humans to Mars, we’ll need to
understand Mars a lot better than we do now. But first, we’ll need to get the technology right. Year Four - SpaceX has been spending the
years since Starship was announced making plans and building ships. Now, in 2019, it’s set
to debut the first proof-of-concept for its fleet of ships - the Starhopper. This prototype for
their test vehicle makes its first test hops, simulating the kind of jumps it’ll need to make
to get to Mars in a controlled environment. It aces every one, and SpaceX is soon building
full-scale prototypes to send the first crews to Mars. Some government officials quibble
- shouldn’t space travel be in the public’s hands and not a private company? - but
barring any large-scale investment, it seems likely that any future space exploration
will be led by Elon Musk and his company. And only a few years later,
some big steps would be taken. Year Six - 2021 was a big year for space
exploration. The United Arab Emirates successfully sent a probe into orbit around
Mars! NASA successfully landed their Perseverance rover on Mars to collect samples, alongside a
small drone-helicopter. As SpaceX successfully completed a high-altitude test flight and
landing of the latest Starship prototype, NASA officially selected the company to build
the first human lunar lander model - much to the anger of Musk’s chief competitor, Amazon founder
Jeff Bezos, who has his own space program Blue Origin. Later that year, China would successfully
land its own lander and rover on the red planet. The race to Mars was on - but how
long would it take to get there? Year Eleven - As we head into the future, more
countries will join the race. Japan and India, both of which have fast-growing space programs,
will likely get closer to the red planet. India is set to launch its Mangalyaan 2 orbiter to
collect data in orbit, while Japan will sent its Martian Moons Explorer to capture samples from
the moon of Phobos and return them to Earth over a four-year mission. But no one in the race is
catching SpaceX, as the Starship prototype is now complete and operating crewed test flights. As
the first orbital flight with a crew is a success, Musk and his team get ready for an even bigger
leap. However, one thing stands in their way - the ideal alignment of Earth with Mars only
happens once every two years, so timing is key Because if Mars colonization is going to
happen, They need to get everything right. Year Thirteen - SpaceX is ready to show off
again - this time, with a flight to the moon. The #dearmoon mission will take off from Earth
and take its pilot and eight carefully selected crew members on an orbit around the moon
for the ultimate view. At the same time, an uncrewed SpaceX ship will be getting ready
to land on the lunar south pole - the most significant landing for the company yet. But
the most significant development is happening elsewhere - as the main structure of the Lunar
Gateway is completed. This small space station - a collaboration between American, European,
Canadian, and Japanese space programs - will orbit the moon and be a key waystation
for larger space missions in the future. But the biggest test is yet to come. Year Fifteen - The moment is here - Can SpaceX
make the leap to Mars? The ship has been tested, but this is going to be its longest trip yet, and
so the first mission to Mars will be unmanned. These two cargo Starships will head to Mars, both
loaded with a miniature nuclear power reactor, as well as an atmospheric propellant plant
to create oxygen and methane from the Martian environment - essential for sustaining both
human and plant life on the red planet. And as this is going on, everyone is busy -
this is around when NASA will be retrieving samples from Mars to transport back to Earth. And
because SpaceX isn’t busy enough, this is the year that they plan to return humans to the moon to
search for frozen water in its polar region. Things are going to start
moving faster from here on out. Year Seventeen - Now that the Lunar
Starship has been tested successfully, several more are coming - and they’re going to
be staying for a while. The goal of this mission will be to establish the first human base on the
moon - the Artemis Base Camp, which will allow for the astronauts to stay for longer periods and
do research on-site. While there are no plans to create permanent living quarters on the moon -
it’s not as promising as Mars for those purposes - crews will be rotating in and out frequently. And
while this work is going on, the results from the ground tests on Mars will come back - and that
will allow the SpaceX team to make their final pick for the location of what will become Mars
Base Alpha, the very first human outpost on Mars. It’s almost moving time… Year Nineteen - Mars is about to get crowded -
but there still aren’t any humans in the latest arrivals. Two unmanned starships arrive on the
future site of Mars Base Alpha, and roll out a large fleet of rovers, solar panels, and mining
robots that will lay the foundation of the base. It’ll be one of the biggest construction projects
in the history of humanity - and it’ll take place over a hundred million miles away from the
closest human. This project will take more than a year to complete, but while that’s
going on, the world will be busy elsewhere. Because humans are about to
become an interplanetary species. Year Twenty-One - The robots are working away, as
landing fields are cleared and the base continues to be prepped. But while these tireless workers
are at their jobs, the moon is about to become a lot more crowded. Artemis Base Bamp was completed
not long ago, and after several short-term missions for construction and testing, it’s
ready to welcome its first full-time residents. Much like the massive International Space
Station, this base will allow its residents to engage in longer-term study of the moon
and the effects of life in space on humans. Because sooner rather than later,
that’s going to be very relevant. The countdown is over. It’s time for liftoff. Year Twenty-Three - It took a long time to get
here, and now, the whole world is watching. SpaceX has been searching for the right
candidates for years, and now twenty-four lucky individuals have been chosen. They’re
about to become the crew members of the first manned mission to Mars. They’ll be divided
into two groups of twelve, and sent on a pair of Starships accompanied by cargo ships.
While this is primarily a SpaceX operation, it’s backed up by NASA and will be watched
closely by governments around the globe. The cargo ships are critically important to this
mission, because they’ll be carrying an ISRU system. This machine will be used to collect,
process, store, and use materials found on Mars to replace construction supplies and
propellants that would otherwise need to be taken from Earth - saving a massive amount of
cargo space. Solar panels are also being set up around the planet by robots, providing much
of the power Mars Base Alpha will need. SpaceX also deploys its Starlink satellites around
Mars, guaranteeing communication and GPS abilities on this new horizon. After all,
no one wants to get lost on a new planet. Will it work? That’s the question
everyone wants to find out. But it won’t take long to find out. While SpaceX
estimates that the timeline of the trip to Mars will be significantly shorter than the original
NASA voyages, it’s still a several months long trip. The twenty-four astronauts are in for a long
and stressful voyage. But before the end of 2031, the Starships touch down on Mars
successfully. The whole world watches, the same way they did in 1969, as someone
steps out of the door. It’s one small step for man - or woman - and one giant step for
mankind as the first human sets foot on Mars. We made it! Now what? Year Twenty-Five - Now…the hard work begins.
The twenty-four residents of Mars Base Alpha are living in a self-contained environment, in
an artificial atmosphere, and only travel outside the base for research missions under carefully
controlled circumstances in space suits that can withstand the brutal conditions outside. It’s a
hard, lonely, and dangerous life - but they’ve all signed on for the greater good - science!
And one project in particular will make for a massive leap forward for life on the planet.
The robots have been scouting for the presence of frozen water on the planet for years, and
once the best location has been determined, it’ll be mined and processed into drinkable water.
After extensive chemical analysis, of course - no one knows what’s buried down there in the ice.
And at the same time, the construction robots are still hard at work - building more landing
and launch pads for future Starships to arrive. Because company’s coming. Year Twenty-Seven - The second crew
arrives on Mars, this time containing around thirty astronauts and specialized
workers. With a growing population, means growing needs. The priority of this mission
will be to enhance the food production of the planet. The centerpiece will be a hydroponic
greenhouse, producing fresh vegetables from the locally-sourced water and supplementing
the diet of packaged astronaut foods. This will be essential to promoting
the health of the astronauts - key to long-term survival on Mars. The footprint
of Mars Base Alpha is growing all the time, now featuring a field station for
research and fast-growing infrastructure. It’s such a success that other people
are going to want to get in on it. Year Twenty-Nine - Colonizing Mars is a
massive investment, and other countries are going to want to join NASA and SpaceX on
the red planet. So instead of financing their own colonial missions - and having to debate
land rights with the first arrivals - they simply decide to buy their way in. This is
around the time that allied space programs like those in Europe, Canada, and Japan will
realize that Mars Base Alpha is a success, and they’ll cut their own deals to buy in. Soon,
ships will be coming from around the world, and Mars Base Alpha will start to look
like a rainbow coalition of science. But now that humans are on Mars, there’s one
more challenge - getting them back to Earth. Year Thirty-One - It’s time for the first
return mission back to Earth - almost as tense an endeavor as the first arrival, if less
historic. It’s another nerve-wracking few months, but this mission ends in success as well and the
returning scientists and crew workers are found to be in good health. And don’t worry about Mars Base
Alpha getting lonely - a new Starship with the largest crew yet will be arriving to restock it
with scientists, workers - and for the first time, residents who will be staying there full-time.
The base has proven itself, now the entire world knows it can sustain life, and it’ll need a
larger crew to build upon this success. It’s now functioning as a full-fledged international
research base, with crews rotating in and out roughly every two years. It’s evidence that
cooperation is the future of space exploration. But competition is coming… Year Thirty-Three - Now that the US and
its partners have done the hard work, it’s proven that Mars can sustain human life
under the right circumstances. So it’s no surprise that China has been hard at work, and
the odds are it’ll have its own base along with its international partners up and running by now.
But don’t worry about shootouts on the surface of Mars - it’s likely China will keep to itself,
keeping its base far away from the US-aligned one and concentrating on its own research. And
while the crew at Mars Base Alpha keeps growing, so does its capabilities. The ISRU system has
been tirelessly working to analyze components of the Red Planet and synthesize what it can
out of them. Mars is now producing its own air, water, fuel, and construction materials from
locally synthesized compounds. Massive 3D printers cut down on the time it takes to create large
construction components, and much of the hard work at the station is now automated. The population
of the station is approaching two hundred, and SpaceX continues to bring in heavy-duty
construction equipment for ongoing projects. Things are stable. Things are good. And
things are about to take a big leap forward. Year Thirty-Five - Five years later, Mars looks a
lot different than it did when the project began. It looks less like a desolate waystation
and more like a thriving society. The small organic garden now looks more like a massive
greenhouse, capable of supplying large amounts of produce to a growing population. For those
astronauts who really don’t want to go vegan, there’s good news - a fish farm has been
established to provide much-needed protein, and multiple species of fish and seafood are
raised on-site in environmentally-shielded tanks. As for meat, they’re not going to be raising
any chickens, pigs, or cows on Mars - they would consume way too many resources and risk
contamination - but a cultured meat farm has been established to create small amounts of animal
tissue for those who really want their burgers. And the need for burgers is
only going to grow from here. The settlement on Mars started with astronauts and
scientists, living a hardscrabble existence trying to build a colony on the red planet. Then came
colonists, committing to living there long-term and helping to cultivate the environment. But
now, Mars is looking good - and the waiting list is longer than ever. Not only are there several
hundred human colonists living there, along with well-paid shorter-term workers, but the planet
is increasingly welcoming wealthy tourists who want a taste of the ultimate adventure. So where
is the planet keeping all these people? The Mars base has been expanded with massive underground
areas housing the large population. But as for the high-rollers, it’s likely that Mars has
luxury housing at this point as well - possibly a high-end hotel created by one of the many
investors in Elon Musk’s grand experiment. But there’s one type of residents
that poses a much thornier question. When will Mars welcome its first children?
It might have already - after all, many people who have families have
committed to to an extended stay on Mars. After exhausting testing on the effect of space
travel on children, NASA and SpaceX will decide whether to allow pregnant colonists to travel
to Mars. If the okay is given, some adaptations will need to be made - including the very first
school on Mars. As for children born on Mars, that’s a much trickier question. The gravity and
environment on Mars are very different from Earth, and while adults with fully formed bodies
can adjust to it and thrive long-term, it’s not clear if the same would go for an infant
born there. Even if they could thrive on Mars, the trip back to Earth and adjusting to life
on it could be very hazardous. So the odds are the authorities are doing their best to
discourage any babies from being born on Mars. And new frontiers are being
discovered all the time. With a solid base on Mars, a new journey
beckons. Humanity landing on the moon in 1969 was an earthshaking event, but how
about landing on a moon…from another planet? It’s a short hop to Phobos and Deimos, which
haven’t been largely explored yet and may make for potential future sites for space bases and
way stations for hops beyond Mars. Until now, journeys beyond Mars were impossible due to the
length of the voyage - but now it’s possible to start on Earth, head to Mars, and head from
there to the great beyond. At the same time, the production on Mars is stepping up so intensely
that the planet’s produced resources may soon be exported back to Earth. That’s one solution
for reducing resource consumption on Earth! And thrill-seeking visitors to Mars
will be conquering their own frontiers. While the focus on Mars has been on developing
it and researching its resources and history, there is one feature on it that likely attracts
the attention of more visitors. It’s called Olympus Mons, and it’s the final frontier
for mountaineers - even taller than Everest, it’s the tallest mountain ever found in this
solar system. It’s a long and treacherous trek, but that just means someone’s going to want
to be the first to conquer it. And for that lucky rich Earth tourist who conquers
the mountain and lives to tell the tale, you can bet they’ll be famous
worldwide - on more than one world. And things will just keep on roaring forward. Year Forty - Mars is looking more and more
like a human city with every passing day. The entire surface has now been
explored and mapped by humans, and the area around Mars Base Alpha is
now a small spaceport capable of handling the heavy traffic coming back and forth.
Bigger Starships have been developed, carrying hundreds of passengers at a time.
These are not only bringing more humans to Mars, but heavier and more specialized equipment. That
includes parts for the first nuclear reactor on Mars - something that will massively increase
the base’s energy production and help to keep up with demand. And this isn’t a one-man job -
once it became clear that SpaceX’s investment in the planet was a success, the odds are that Jeff
Bezos’ Blue Origin and Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic would have invested heavily in the planet
as well. They may be working on their own bases and luxury hotels for tourists - meaning that
Mars is on the verge of its first advertising war. And that’s not the only way the red
planet is starting to look like Earth. The planet is now dotted with bases, mining
depots, and research facilities along its rocky surfaces, with SpaceX and NASA expanding
to multiple points of interest. Between the official sites and the many tourist sites
that are developing, people are going to need ways to get from one place to another. Mars
has likely had a road system established, as well as a public transportation system. Elon
Musk’s interest in underground train systems like the Hyperloop means that the mining droids
have been busy carving a vast martian tunnel network - supplemented by buses and short-distance
cars above ground. The population of Mars is now close to two thousand full-time colonists,
with more arriving all the time from multiple companies and countries. In only a few short
years, the nuclear reactor is up and running, and as the year 2050 is rung in on Mars,
the future is looking brighter than ever. But the growing population of Mars will
mean some hard questions are coming. Year Forty-Five - With the growing population of
civilians on Mars, the planet is starting to look less like a base and more like a city. Many of
the colonists work in factories on the planet, helping to construct assets like solar panels and
help perform the precise hands-on work the robots can’t. And with a combo of locals and tourists
roaming the planet, it’s likely some people will get up to things they shouldn’t - which is why
Mars Base Alpha soon establishes its own police force, taking over from the SpaceX security
team. The surface of Mars is now likely dotted with small bases from other countries, which use
them for research and production, but no other country has put the decades-long investment
into creating what’s essentially a colony. And now, SpaceX is looking further. The company has been working on creating new,
better, faster spaceships this whole time, and many are now produced and based on Mars.
One of them will be used in the first mission from Mars - heading into the treacherous
realm of the Asteroid Belt with the goal of landing on the dwarf planet of Ceres. Made
up of frozen water and rich with minerals, it’s seen as a possible resource center for Mars,
and while the first manned mission is likely to be brief, it’s seen as a critical waystation
for longer journeys into the solar system. But back home, trouble may be brewing. Life on Mars is becoming less of a sacrifice for
the future of humanity and more of a desirable adventure. Many of the amenities on Earth
are becoming available on the red planet, and it’s bringing more and more people
all the time. By 2053, the population is approaching four thousand - and Mars Base Alpha
is getting crowded. New bases are being built, more countries are establishing their own
bases, and they soon start developing their own subcultures. It becomes increasingly important to
protect the surface of Mars - with more and more of it being dotted with human life, a stray meteor
strike from the asteroid belt could mean disaster. Defense systems are equipped with the ability to
track and shoot down flying objects if needed. But the biggest problem will
be Mars’ growing population. Year Fifty - And Beyond! The population growth is unlikely to slow
down, and that means that making decisions for a large group is likely to get harder. Until
now, the odds are policy was largely determined by SpaceX administrators and governments on
Earth. But with a population of thousands, you’ll have countless small issues every
day. This means that eventually Mars Base Alpha - and other bases as they grow - will have
to establish their own governments. These are likely to resemble small city governments
at first, with a legislative council, an executive, and a judicial system to handle
both criminal and civil disputes. It’ll look a lot like Earth - just on Mars - and will answer
to higher government authorities if needed. And as Mars grows, so does big business. The first businesses to establish themselves on
Mars will be - not surprisingly - the ones who already have investments. But with a permanent
audience of thousands waiting for them, don’t be surprised if soon the Mars bases get some familiar
occupants? Anyone up for a McMars Burger? How about a Red Planet Frappucino? Tourism will still
mostly be for the rich, but as the process becomes increasingly streamlined, it’ll get cheaper and
cheaper - just like air travel did decades ago. And soon, the planet may not
be looking so red anymore. One of the next big forays into Martian
exploration will be the process of terraforming, which will be started by artificially releasing
super-greenhouse gases in the Martian atmosphere and seeding the air. Will it work? A massive
stumbling block is the lack of an electromagnetic field. This would make any attempt at
terraforming Mars vulnerable to solar radiation, so the colonists are likely to stick to what
works - large domed environments suitable for growth. New outposts will be established on the
moons, spaceships will get faster and faster, and Mars will soon be covered with
massive domes housing cities of people. Its food and fertilizer output increases
so much, it becomes the main supplier to other outposts in the solar system - as it
lies muc closer to them compared to Earth. And now, something else is growing too. Despite many concerns about the health of the
children, the odds are the first children will have been born on Mars by now - either as a
planned experiment, or more likely, through a happy accident. Hey, those Martian nights get
cold. But planned or not, this will be the biggest experiment yet in the Martian colony - because
these children will be the first Martian natives, growing up in the red planet’s gravity and
atmosphere. It’s possible that they’ll live their whole lives on Mars, but if they plan on returning
to Earth, that’ll be a difficult process - and scientists are hard at work designing exoskeletons
that may help them adjust to Earth’s gravity. Eventually, Mars’ questions will
start looking a lot more like Earth’s. Who’s going to be the first country to build the
first prison on Mars? The odds are a jail will be built fairly quickly for small-time
criminals, but there is a long history of countries shipping their criminals off to
faraway colonies like Australia. Could Mars be next? As the population of Mars grows from the
thousands to the tens of thousands and beyond, and they become increasingly self-sufficient,
many of the resident Martian humans may start chafing under the leadership of Earth’s countries.
Some may even say it’s time to take their fate into their own hands. Will the governments be
willing to give them more autonomy? Will the companies that founded Mars Base Alpha and
beyond support their call for independence? Does anyone know if there’s a
river on Mars to dump some tea? If you’re looking for some more
unexpected looks into the future, check out “What If the Earth Stopped
Spinning - Minute By Minute”, or watch “The Real Problem With Living On
Mars” for a look at what might hold us back.
