- In the Pacific Northwest, a slow motion collision of tectonic plates along the Cascadia subduction
zone has been building tension for over 320 years. And when that tension is released, the resulting earthquake is likely to be as large as a magnitude 9. That will be 45 times more powerful than California's most
destructive quake in 1906. And the consequences defy imagination. (building rumbling) This megathrust earthquake is
predicted to be so significant locals simply call it The Big One. And scientists estimate that
it has an alarming 37% chance of occurring within the next 50 years. In this episode, we'll learn
just how this mega quake will impact our cities and
find out what's being done to prepare our infrastructure and learn some invaluable
lessons about how to make a plan for when The Big One hits. (dramatic music) Subduction zone earthquakes
often cause sudden movement and changes on the ocean floor, triggering tsunamis large
enough to completely wipe coastal communities off the map. Remember the Fukushima
power plant disaster? In 2011, Japan was hit by
a magnitude 9 earthquake, similar to what we're anticipating
here on the West Coast and it unleashed a tsunami
of devastating proportions. Chris Goldfinger is a geologist in Oregon who studies earthquakes and
he happened to be in Japan when the quake hit. I asked him to tell me
about his experience. - We went outside and just watched buildings moving, flagpoles whipping, and it just felt like the whole
earth had turned to liquid. Yet you could feel this
grinding plate underneath us. And as we watched it, though, we knew that Northeast
Japan wasn't expected to have anything bigger than about an 8.4. But when it hit three minutes
and went past three minutes, we knew that was wrong. They were going, this is a nine. It has to be a nine. That's what it takes, three minutes - [Maiya] Because of a long
history of earthquakes, Japan was so well prepared
that this mega quake destroyed a relatively small number of buildings. But they just didn't expect the size of the tsunami that followed. (tsunami siren howling) Allison Pyrch, an engineer from Oregon, visited in the aftermath. - And it toppled most
of their tsunami walls inundated huge amounts
of the Japan coastline. It killed 16,000 people. And we were there six to
eight weeks after the tsunami, going and standing there
and smelling the fish smell. And you can imagine where the water went 'cause you can see the water lines on the trees on the hills around it. You can see the pieces of
people's lives strewn around. So as an Oregonian, that's really hard, knowing that that's what our
coastline is gonna look like. - And while the Tohoku quake in Japan was the costliest natural
disaster in the world's history, here on the West Coast
of the United States, we're nowhere near as
prepared as Japan was for this kind of disaster. - If that had been Cascadia
and I'd been at work, my building would have collapsed. There's no question about it. I might've gotten out, it might
not, but it would be gone. Everybody thought Cascadia was A size, meaning no earthquakes, because historically, that's what it was. It was dead silent. And then the first evidence was discovered in the early to mid eighties, realized that we just happened to be sitting in a quiet spot. - The Cascadia subduction
zone is a 600 mile fault that runs from Northern
California up to British Columbia. Over the last 10,000 years,
geologic records show that there have been 41
subduction quakes here, which averages out to
about one every 250 years. The last one came in the year 1700. That's 321 years ago. Since then, tension
along the subduction zone has been slowly building as the Juan de Fuca plate
steadily pushes into and under the North American plate. The plate edge continues to
gradually bend and buckle and one day, it'll release that tension causing up to five minutes of
violent shaking and triggering an immense tsunami that could reach a hundred
feet in some areas. - If you were looking at a bird's eye view of Portland or Seattle, very soon after shaking started, bridges and other longer infrastructure are going to be warping and
falling off their foundations. You would see unreinforced
masonry buildings start to collapse. This is where 95% of Oregon
and Southwest Washington's fuel is brought in and stored. These tanks will deform, they'll spill. Any type of spark or
metal hitting each other could also start a fire. The Cascadia subduction
zone earthquake is gonna be one of the worst disasters
America's ever seen. - [Maiya] Officials in Portland, Oregon created this animation
showing what they predict one of the busiest bridges in
the Northwest will look like. And it's not pretty. (tense music)
(earth rumbling) In the aftermath of the quake, survivors along the coastline
and towns like Seaside, Oregon will have as little as
20 minutes to evacuate before the massive tsunami hits. - In a place like Seaside,
what we need to do is get from here up to the
hills right back there. It's a very straight
path, it's not that far. It's a very doable evacuation,
but there's a problem here because there's no way to get there without crossing one of these bridges. The bridges were built
before plate tectonics, so we've got no retrofitting at all. If these bridges go down, people trying to evacuate
are gonna have a problem. They're gonna have to swim the river and then continue evacuating up the hill. - [Maiya] To get an idea of just how risky this situation is, Chris
actually flew our camera person oversee Seaside in his acrobatic plane. (engine sputters) - As we're flying over Seaside, we can see how low elevation the town is. Ground doesn't really rise much until you get well on the
other side of the highway. Pretty much everything on
the west side of Highway 101 is pretty likely to be inundated. (ominous music) I mean, I came home from Japan
feeling optimistic about it, but at the same time, I look
around at the Pacific Northwest and I can see just visually that yeah, we are a thousand years behind and this is not gonna be easy to catch up. - But officials in the
Northwest are getting started. Portland is currently reviewing options to build a new Burnside Bridge to serve as a lifeline after the quake. And all new structures are being built up to earthquake standards. Still, the vast majority
of homes in the region are not ready for earthquakes
of this magnitude, and aren't even bolted
to their foundations. Michael Wieber is a contractor specializing in retrofitting homes to make them more likely
to survive an earthquake. - So this house was built in 1911. There really wasn't a
building code back down. This house is sitting on the foundation through the grace of gravity. We're going to rectify that. We're going to collect
those earthquake loads and get them into the foundation to prevent the house from
moving off the foundation. So the vast majority
of our work takes place underneath the house. So in this case, the basement. (soft guitar music) All right, so this is
a special order plywood that's designed for earthquake loads, and it's going to install like this to get those loads from this beam up here into the sill plate down here. And then we'll install this side plate and we'll continue that load
path into the foundation. (drill whirring) - The most important
retrofit is strengthening the connection from
the walls to the floors and to the foundation. Some homes are simple to retrofit and it's possible to do it yourself, but others are very complicated, so it's worth having a
professional take a look if you live in an earthquake-prone area. And there's a lot you can do
without construction skills, like making sure tall furniture,
heavy wall decorations, appliances, and even
electronics like televisions are securely attached to the wall, so they don't fall on
people during a quake. Mark Ginsburg is a Portland NET or neighborhood emergency team leader and has been preparing for
The Big One for over a decade. Despite living and breathing
disaster preparedness, Mark, surprisingly doesn't
seem too overwhelmed by the inevitable earthquake. - It's not the thing
that keeps me up at night because I know that I can't control it. I understand where I live and I understand that
that's a possible risk. But I also know that if I
do some preparedness work and if I do trainings, this year I redid my first
aid and AED trainings. Those are the parts that I
can do and that I can control. There's your house and
the physical things, there's the knowledge, and there's a plan. But I think having the
things that you as a family or a household need to just be independent for a little while is really crucial. - Here are Mark's top
five most important things to keep in your home or garage when preparing for The Big One. - Shelf stable food, water,
one gallon per person per day. Good fire extinguishers,
the more the merrier. Two bucket toilet. Toilet seat, clips on the bucket. Toilet paper. Saw dust for your poop. For in one gas shutoff tool. Thank you. Water shutoff in the
bottom, gas shutoff on top. If you turn off your gas, you leave it off and let
the pros turn it back up. - Shutting off your gas can
be crucial to stopping fires. If you smell gas in your
home after an earthquake, Mark suggests grabbing
your for in one tool and simply turning the
valve to the off position. It's easy to feel
discouraged or overwhelmed when thinking about
preparing for a disaster as large as The Big One, but I think we could all take
a page out of Mark's book. - The time to figure out what to do is not after the earthquake,
the flood, the fire, but to know in advance,
if those things happen, what should we do? - You don't have to join
a local emergency team, although it's great if you do, but just taking small steps
today to start your preparation like picking up a gallon of water or a few extra cans of
soup for your pantry can go a long way. - People will want to help and will step up to help to
the best of their abilities. That's what everything shows will happen and what has happened in the past and we can expect that's
what's gonna happen should we need it in Portland. - And for a more detailed
look on how you can prepare ahead of time for an earthquake or for any other disaster for that matter, check out our episode on
how to stock your pantry and pack a go-bag. Thanks for tuning into
this episode of "Weathered" and as always, don't forget
to like and subscribe so you never miss an episode. See you guys next time. (soft music)
I live on the Oregon coast and commute 4 days a week into the PDX area for work. Chances are I will likely be in the valley when/if this event happens. My family and I have agreed on our plans of evac. What logging road to meet up on above the house, how to relay welfare messages through local radio operators, etc... Many of the coastal communities, including my own, are starting their own mitigation plans and recruiting CERT volunteers to prepare for this inevitable future event. My family and I signed up for CERT training, first aid and incident command and control training offered through the city. We've had to curtail monthly in-person training scenarios due to the pandemic. We run weekly radio nets on GMRS that are coordinated and keep us in practice for a real emergency. Many of us have also obtained our HAM licenses to enhance our capabilities above and beyond the GMRS frequencies.
We are told to expect to be without any aid or support from the outside world for up to 30 days, in the event of a major rupture on the Cascadia subduction zone. We have our go bags prepared with a week's supply of nutrition and a way to filter drinking water along with other critical items. We've laid in additional supplies for a longer evac. Hopefully our city will look into placing connex containers at the high-ground assembly areas for local citizens to store supplies to sustain a long duration. Some communities on the North coast are doing this quite successfully.
I think it's worth preparing for an event of this magnitude, as well as raising awareness in the community.
FEMA, multiple military branches, federal and state governments both physically and monetarily, and more and more people each day as discussion grows.
I'm getting the 2nd vaccine this friday so I should be OK
As a Californian living atop of the Hayward fault line, i am not prepared lol
I love the Oregon coast, and I’ve seriously considered moving there - but if I do, the house will be above 100’ elevation, and I’ll have a clear, bridge-free path inland from it. I saw a $3M+ house for sale just north of Bandon - right on the waterline (way way out of my price range, but cool to dream…), and I couldn’t figure out why someone would build something like that in that spot.
I was search and rescue and I have emergency bags in our car all the time because of what I was taught, I explained to my husband (who thinks I’m over preparing) if we ever need to leave in a hurry we don’t need to stop and pack, just grab the dog and go.
Quite frankly, there is no 'prepared' outside of a private avenue east, that no one else can readily access.
Outside of being well provisioned and set up for sustainability and a potential rebuild, there isn't a ton you can do. Your house will not survive. Every bridge will be obliterated. Power, water, sewer systems down for who knows how long.
https://www.opb.org/aftershock-story/
Enter your zip code/address and this website will tell you what the estimates are for how long various services will be unavailable in your community.