[Music] hello and welcome for people who did not know we are finally now in Dubai in terms of our office is set up our operations is set up and and basically this whole trip had to do with setting up that whole office there are plenty of things I wanted to talk to you about first one is obviously what's happening with the express entry nothing good is happening with Express entry at this point of time uh because uh the draws are just not happening the way they should be happening so what I have for you today is a set of data points the set of data points which will give you a bit of Glimpse because what is happening is a lot of people of course on social media uh are talking so many different things in terms of what kind of draws are happening how many invitations will be issued will the scores go below 500 or not or will it stay for the rest of the year at 520 or whatever that might be uh so I will just talk to you about the data points especially from 2023 because that's where the category based draws have started so that you have a glimpse of what's going on so this was the last Express entry draw which has happened on the 29th of February 2,500 invitations were issued uh this was the French language proficiency category so frankophone category right if you have cb7 n clc7 uh and then you would be eligible in this in this category 336 was the draw which is to be very honest pretty decently low but look at the pool breakdown right and most people are worried about this number there are 9567 candidates above 501 of course these 601s get cleared out these are thousand there at this point of time of course the next Express entry draw will clear these guys out I'm not particularly worried about them I I expect a draw to happen on the 12th or 13th of March if it happens on 12th of March then we probably will see more category draws if it happens on 13th of March it probably will be a general category draw so 965 is not a concern 501 to 600 you have 9567 candidates who are sitting in in the express entry pool now this in my opinion I would say is going to get cleared my I believe I absolutely believe and a lot of people are saying that it is stuck it is going to be remaining at above 500 more than 520 it will not come down blah blah blah blah blah um with all due respects to everybody who has a different opinion and view there has to be a basis right uh I understand that ircc for the first two months of this year that is Chan and Feb they have only conducted these draws which are pretty much 1,470 which brought a score to 534 then there was 1490 which brought the score to 535 then there was 730 541 1,40 543 and 1510 so they have pretty much conducted the draws in the 1500 less range which I would call as actually a PNP program P&P specific draws because they're pretty much only clearing those people who have received a nomination uh doesn't really help us a lot in the regular Express entry draw because most people would want to see the draws you know at least of 3,000 4,000 hopefully even 5,000 kind of a number which ircc was pretty actively drawing until last year 2023 not too far away now let's let's take some numbers into play I don't have a slide I apologize for that in 2023 the number of invitations the total Express entry invitations issued were 11266 okay so that's the number of invitations issued total 2023 number of itas 110 266 now the kotas or the targets were about 465 to 485,000 they finally achieved that Target so in spite of that Target of 400 less than half a million in number of invitations that were issued were 11,266 now mind you this number 11,266 is the second highest in the history of Express entry Now history of Express entry dates back to 2015 uh January 1 that's where Express entry was launched you also will obviously remember that the category based draws have been announced only last year so only six eight months back now and they were launched the first draw conducted was on the 28th of June when they invited 500 candidates under the healthcare draw the draw number was 252 okay 500 invitations were issued score was 476 now the the the the draw before that if you see the draw number 251 was a no all program draw right number of invitations were ised 4,300 score was 486 the the the the draw before that 4,800 invitations issued score was 486 draw before that 4,800 invitations issued score was 488 now even then if you see these three draws just before the the the category based draw started scores were pretty pretty much you know stuck at 488s 488 486 486 so that basically told you that even after ircc was issuing so many invitations right 4,800 almost 5,000 the scores were not really dropping right the scores were staying same even after two weeks after gaps of two weeks that the scores that the draws were happening why uh there was a big influx of people who were coming into the pool with high Express entry scores in the sense like they were completing their masters High ISS one year of work experience outside Canada in Canada one year of work experience all these guys can very easily score 500 plus and add to that if they have frankophone scores add to that if they have an lmia whether it's 50 points whether it's 200 points all of these factors in combination we're seeing this number please also do not forget March of last year ircc did invite draw number 243 draw number 244 draw number 245 they issued 21,000 invitation in a span of just two weeks in 14 days 21,000 invitations were issued the score dropped from the previous 791 it dropped down to 484 and then to 481 490 484 and then 481 and you can imagine the reason why ircc chose to conduct these big uh number of draws as in 21,000 invitations was because there was this big chunk of people who had gathered there approximately 20 to 25 I think 24,000 people with a score of 481 plus you know in the express entry pool which was largely a worrying number there was a lot of advocacy from the members of parliament from the political groups as well who are supporting immigration as to why these draws were you know why why the scores were so high and the reason why the scores were so high is because the previous year which is 2022 see you have to understand the history you have to understand all these data points to get a good perspective so that's the reason bear with me before earlier uh in the end of 2022 in November they had changed the knock system from the knock 2016 to knock 2021 right that the knock became from four digits became five digits and then obviously the way ircc systems are the systems crashed uh and the draws stopped so there was no draw towards the end of November there was no draw towards December January there were some draws so they did two draws big numbers 5,500 each about 11,000 invitations were issued uh yeah these ones but obviously the scores were too high because the numbers were too high and therefore they conducted these three draws of 7,000 each which basically tells you that it is within the irc's scope it is within their purview to increase the number of invitations whenever they are whether it's the political agenda or whatever that might be whenever they are asked to to to make those changes then they it is within their scope it is within their purview to issue these large draws so that the scores can brought be brought into some sort of normaly so 481 was the lowest that saw uh last year and and therefore we we had that that that draw and this year unfortunately obviously it's not like that now further what happened is and also what you need to keep in mind is this particular date June 28th 2023 when that that's when the category based draws started now just to give you a bit of perspective about these factors and these numbers is 110,000 266 invitations issued in 2023 s okay you have that then total number of invitations that were issued to all program draws all program draws so including pnts CC's fsws fst's Federal skill trade categories all program draws the total number of invitations that were issued were hold your horses 76 ,700 so this was the number that was issued that that were the invitations issued now they were throughout the year there were five PMP specific draws five PNP specific draws invited 4,396 candidates okay and then there was this one odd very odd right which which actually got everybody by surprise uh which draw was it yes this one this particular draw on the 2nd of February 202 3 draw number 240 they chose to invite only Federal skilled workers they have never done that I I don't not know why it happened I don't know how that happened was it a technical glitch was it somebody who who pressed the wrong button somewhere they invited 3,300 people with a score of 489 only Federal skilled worker fsw program specific draw the only time that has happened so now you have 76700 invitations which were issued throughout the year uh for all program draws you have 4,396 invitations that were issued to PNP specific draws then you had 3,300 which was issued to the federal skilled worker program only do you know how many were actually issued to the categories throughout the year last year only 2,870 the total number of category based draws itas issued last year 2023 because that's when it started was 25870 that's it that was the total number of invitations issued now you will say but of course uh category based draws only started in June which is true June 28 where is this of course June 28 is when the uh category based draws started do you know from January to June when the category based draws had not started the number of all program pnps Federal skilled workup draws the total number of invitations issued were 59,4 so that basically meant from June to December and when I'm saying June it was already if you can see 252 was already end of June all right so from June to December the total number of invitations that ircc issued were 51,2 18 okay and out of this which then tells you that the number of invitations issued to all program draws after the category based draws had started was 25,34 now the reason why I'm stressing upon these numbers 25870 from June to December 25348 were the all program draws and it started from June to December and the reason why these numbers are so important is because it tells you that they shared almost 50/50 of the number of invitations after the category based draws that started and because we do not have any other data point there is no historical data to take into consideration there are no Trends to take into consideration so the only data you can refer to are the six months of uh 2023 when the actual category base draws it happened now obviously you want to know how many draws were issued or how many itas were issued to different categories French or frankophone category specific draws the number of itas issued were the highest which was 8,700 Healthcare got 5,600 stem category surprisingly got only 6,400 one draw was in first one was in July only 500 invitations were issued which caught Everybody by surprise and then the next draw happened in December 5,900 invitations were issued score was 481 skilled trades they invited only 2,500 people uh TR 1,670 agriculture only 1,000 candidate but again uh Agriculture and transport had a very small number of uh uh invitations because the number of nooc codes were also quite Less in agriculture you only have three in transport you had about eight or 10 that basically meant less number of candidates less number of invitations but other than that skill trade also had only 2,500 stem did have 6,400 health had 5,600 French had 8,700 so if you take these numbers and just pretty much double these up that is on an average what you can expect for this year again I'm only saying it on the basis of the last six months of data for the category based draws that is available to us now from uh 2023 anything other than that we do not have any data to base any kind of analysis on so what this means for people who are wondering what the hell am I going on and on and on and about that in my opinion and only opinion I expect that ircc is going to split the number of category draws and the regular General Express entry draws which is all program including the pnps almost 50/50 if not 50/50 then probably 55 45 45% in the favor of all program draws 55 in the favor of category based draws and that is pretty much how it goes and if last year they chose to invite 11,266 invitations then I'm hoping and and expecting that they would pretty much stick to the similar number if not more this year as well so if you expect because this year also the number of federal High skilled categories Target for the express entry for 2024 has also gone up it's about 110,000 now so keeping that in mind the number of invitations I expect to be in the similar range of last year about 110,000 which says that about 50,000 invitations will go to uh the all program draws and about 55 to 60,000 will go to category based draws or they could even be split half and half now with that with about 50,000 invitations being issued with the regular Express entry draws so far only 5 to 6,000 people have been invited in the all program draws and only two months have passed so you still have 10 months to look at and you still have you have roughly 45,000 invitations to expect with 10 months to go 45,000 invitations even if they start conducting 3 to 4,000 invitation of 3 to 3,000 4,000 kind of you know they can always vary they can do couple of 4,000 kind of draws or 5,000 kind of draws then bring it back to 3,000 again increase it to 4,000 bring it back to 2,000 all those variations are possible because that's what they've been doing in the past whenever they choose to do that and again I've just shown you historical evidence they have done that in the past last year January they conducted two draws 5, 500 5,500 in March they conducted three draws of 7,000 7,000 7,000 all of them were done deliberately to bring the scores down it doesn't stop them from doing it again uh obviously we now have a new immigration Minister who is pretty much more under pressure for a lot of things right now but if the right kind of uh advocacy is done I have absolutely no doubt at least I believe it that the scores should clear definitely 500 should should clear and from there on if you actually see uh 490s is only 7,574 if you calculate 7574 and 9567 this is roughly 17,000 18,000 profiles if ircc could invite 21,000 people in 2 weeks then this is just about clearing 177,000 is it possible is it not possible you you make that call you make the decision as far as I'm concerned I'm I'm pretty pumped I'm pretty positive I'm pretty hopeful that 500's definitely should clear out once the 500 clears out and from there on they keep conducting these kind of draws with the intention of issuing roughly 50,000 invitations only for all program draws in the year 2024 it's my belief that 500 definitely gets cleared out with definitely can see 490s happening within this year itself uh so this is for all that opinions that you have seen on Instagram on reals on Tik Tok where it has said that the scores will remain only at 500 Plus thank you everybody yeah we will do this again of course next week uh until that time please do share like subscribe and I will see you next time take [Music] care [Music]
