so guys we are discussing the express entry draws for Canadian PR in the year 2024 during consultations and comments on social media as well I get uh you know this particular questions a lot of time is that um what do you think about the express entry draws what do you expect when are we going to see a sub 500 draw that's a million dollar question for me um apart from that when do you see a stem draw when do you see you know what do you think is going to happen with the category draws and whatsoever so guys with tons of questions it becomes increasingly important for us to analyze the express entry pool and the historical draws and then to you know uh probably put perspectives into place some projections numbers and to see where we are going to land well in this video today we will be doing the exact same thing that is looking at historical data we will also look at the you know the targets the quotas and we'll try to you know project what exactly can we expect in the year 202 for balance of the year so guys today's video is extremely special if you are willing to come to Canada and if you are eyeing espe if you are inside Canada especially uh then this video should be watched up until the end my name is sahil and see on the other [Music] side so guys welcome back once again my name is sahil and regulated Canadian immigration consultant and I practice here in Ontario my office is here if you have to get in touch with me my number is on the screen and the details are there in the description box more than happy to speak with you before we proceed any further please make sure that to hit the Subscribe button and the bell icon because we talk a lot about Canadian immigration and if you are an aspirant of moving to Canada and this is a channel that you must be subscribed to all the time so guys in this video today we will be discussing the extremely important topic of the express entry draws what do we project what do we see what do we expect how are the draws uh you know expected to shape out in the balance of the year with regards to the new developments the you know the CRS cut offs and everything so guys um we have put together you know a couple of uh you know windows for you to have a look at just to get a background so people who will be hearing this uh you may want to tune in to our YouTube channel later but for now um overall guys um the express entry system is is the staple um you know online application system as you as you may want to look at it people will use that to apply for PR now how it works is basically you have certain set of qualification for example your age your education inside Canada outside Canada your language you could have appeared for English or French language test then your family situation married or not and then talking about your work experience the occupation code category all of that is put into you know an application system and the system gives you Merit based points so it has points allocated to each Cate category and based on what you put in as data or your factual information the system will tell you okay so for example you have 470 480 500 520 530 that sort of points now what the um immigration department at the back end does is it has a view of the whole pool of candidates so once you submit your Express entry profile you're placed in a pool of candidates and the immigration department at the back end has the pool of candidates in front they know all the all the you know specific qualification ations and then they invite people based on the number of people in the pool and the kind of Labor Market requirements that they may have for that particular year this particular labor market requirement change came in the year 2023 mid of June and then they started inviting people based on these uh you know labor market requirements now every year the starting of the year they would let you know that okay for this year we have these broad categories and then we will be inviting people based on these categories now let me let me just quickly uh bring it up on the screen okay so the categories for this particular year are stem categories which is uh science technology engineering and Mathematics then we have category for French language and we have Healthcare trades then we have transport and agriculture so what ircc says is that um whenever um they want to invite people they will be doing that based on these categories and uh you know that there will be draws so they will let you know what kind of a minimum CRS cut off could be a general category draw where they say okay everybody from all the categories are invited so that's a no program specified or a general category draw and there could be point when they would say that okay we need say trade people and they could align or they would align certain CRS cut off say General category do people above 524 everybody is invited now the scores could be such that if it's too high it would technically be a P&P only draw but still ircc chose to call it you know an all program draw whereas the other draws could be say people in trade knock codes they've previously identified nooc code it would say okay people in trade KN Goods uh your cut off is say for example 350 okay so that's the kind of draw size that we look at every bi- weekly now what ircc has been traditionally doing it and they're not bound to do that is that every 15 days every bi-weekly they would hold a series of draws so say within a week Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday specific days they would hold draws say one day would be a trade draw agriculture draw then the next day could be anything else so that's how they've been doing it so far in the in the last couple of say six months or so and they are inviting people all over the place now for the year if you um the pool so let's just have a look at the pool as of now now the pool today sits at close to 2,962 people so that means uh that's the total people sitting in the pool as of March 24th 2024 above 600 are 987 above 500 between 501 and 600 is 10,342 people between say 51 and the top of 1200 that's 11,329 people now interestingly uh the reason why I pointed out to 481 till uh 500 is that uh prior to 2020 um three also 480s was a mark where people were usually sitting at um and this this figure is extremely important because say somebody's inside Canada uh did say a Bachelors from India or Pakistan or Bangladesh or wherever would come to Canada to do your one year uh Bachelor or say one- year diploma and would get say one year work experience from back home one year work experience from here and a decently good enough is score that person would be sitting at High 4 80s 90s could reach up to 500 and more depending upon what kind of an a score now this particular is an ideal situation for an international student to be in because that's where they don't need any additional support from uh an employer and they have uh you know they have no requirements of an lmia and they don't even require a high English score and they don't even need a French so that was historically a sweet spot for people to come to Canada uh fast forward to today ircc has projected the numbers where close to 2.5 million temporary residents are here out of which major Chu is students close to 800,000 and that's where students are struggling and that's the whole reason of un cry now what ircc has been doing after they start bringing in the express entry category draws is that they stopped taking the low draws for 480s they started uh you know giving out smaller size draws a number of itas would be low but that would push the CRS score Beyond 530 by you know 535 something like that so that's the whole you know human cry because people between five you know 480s and 530s are the biggest chunk that is you know that is not happen now again going back to this number uh between 481 and 1200 there are 30,36 people which includes a lot of international students uh people who have been working here people who have good master's degree and this is the age bracket between 28 and you know say not even 28 it could be 24 23 also up until say 3540 because once you start hitting 40 um then you are not able to reach this point no matter what kind of a uh you know qualification you may have I'm not including French and Elm here we're just talking about without LM and without French so that is the this is the situation why 480 is important and hence the question from a lot of people that okay sahil why do you think you know uh or what do you think when will we see a sub 500 draw before 2023 I was getting asked a question when will you see a lower cut off draw 470 or 460 and now the question has shifted to when will you see a sub 500 okay because people below 475 have lost their hopes okay also below 480 uh nowadays you know we see Ontario coming up with a lot of draws of human capital so human capital priorities obviously there's a choice of no quots but for it people between 467 and 477 types they get picked up so typically ircc and human capital are covering the Spectrum so what is left is between 480s and 520 so that's the main hotspot where we are yet to see anything now the next thing to note here is that if we look at 2023 uh the targets as per globe in mail in one of the news that was published around August of 2023 uh this number is not officially confirmed by ircc per se but this was a data that was uh taken by glob and Mill which is one of the biggest uh you know uh news agency here in Canada um they said that the 10 categories were supposed to have a draw uh you know projection or a target of 28 to 31% a French language would be 11 to 15% Healthcare would be 9 to 12% trades would see 3 to 4% transport 1 to 2% and agriculture 1 to 2% now what we're trying to do today is we are trying to um you know keep these figures into the mind because like I said ircc has not confirmed these figures uh officially so we can't take them forward but we are only going by projected numbers and the historical figures now the draws that we see here or the the numbers that we see here on the screen are the ones that will be uh looked at upon uh in the projections today post this last year the uh 2023 three total draws were sitting at [Music] 110,00 invitations were seen in the category so trade stem all of these put together 25 2,870 draws all program itas were kept to 25 you know 2023 also we saw this this pattern come up overall this was 2023 so in our projections today which we are going to talk about we have taken into account the 2023 targets and the numbers that we are seeing on 2024 based on these facts the million doll question whether we are going to see a sub 500 draw is the next couple of slides that we will look at and the analysis now in 2024 so far a until 31st of March 2024 which is today between 1st of January and 2024 we have seen zero stem category draws and French language have been uh say close to 11,000 people so that's the maximum uh Healthcare draws have been 3500 a trades have been zero transport 975 and agriculture have been 150 people so that's a total of you know categories only sitting at 15,625 people plus the 11,070 people who have been invited in all program draws so so far in the year 2024 up until 31st of March 2024 we have seen 26,6 195 people being invited in the express entry draw so far based on the 2023 data we have the projected balance which we are going to see approximately 3,874 people who should be invited in the stem category draws so far zero so that means a lot of stem category draws are around the corner French language pretty much looks like it's been exhausted uh 1129 people left over I think we should see a couple of French draws like one or two draws in the near future and that should be it uh Healthcare is still a good balance of 6,424 um zero in trades that have been invited I think we should see a good 3,300 draw at once like one single shot and it should go down to say you know 300 something and that should be the trade draw specifically I think trade should be one single shot or maybe two shots of say 1500 and 1800 or say 15 15 and 300 something like that could be spread over uh whereas transport is pretty much done with the largest transport draw and the agriculture is still pending with 953 draws for the year so this is what we are seeing based on the targets that we saw uh you know uh with the news of glob and mail and um up until if you look at the comparison up until this 31st of March cut off uh ircc had invited 37,5 159 people last year as compared to 26695 people this year so there's still a drop of approximately say 7 to 8,000 people keep in mind we haven't uh we haven't taken the increasing of the quota so every year ircc would want to bring in say close to so last year was was approximately 465 to 485,000 people this year we are looking at close to 485,000 people so this projection that we're looking at we haven't yet increased the number we are still being very conservative we are looking at replicating the previous years in terms of the quota to 110,000 only and U the the categories the targets also we haven't touched upon we are going by what number we have so far okay so keep in mind we are not overestimating any budgets um with this particular thought the express entry 2024 numbers are here uh what we project is that there are still 39 weeks to go in the year which means there could be potentially 19 draws uh and approximate quota that would have been left based on a conservative approach of 110,000 would be 8335 people to be invited in this year um if by this number if you just divide by 19 draw uh you know 19 draws that's about 4,3 1884 people who should be invited in a particular draw week um the 83,000 is directly being divided into two uh which is uh you know projected category draws based on the you know the number that I showed here um uh this one the the targets that we have based on this number 42 42,8 2016 people just like here as well 42 816 and uh projected General draws would be 4 uh 40, million inside Canada especially the workers the international students who are going to face expiry of their work permits in the coming few months converting those temporary residents to permanent so technically tr2 PR uh well don't go by the name of the the program that I said but they're working on a special pathway maybe or ways means and methods to convert temporary residents into permanent residents that could include looking at you know working out on the undocumented people here as well that could mean CC only draws that could mean a tr2 PR pathway like another pathway uh that could mean anything right so we haven't had much Clarity from the immigration minister so far in this regard but a CA C draw might be around the corner if you look at last year's figures if I quickly show you uh you know um last year's figures here the um um previous 2023 there were there was a series of three draws for you know the general draw where they had 777 th000 draws okay so that was 21,000 people invited in just back-to-back draws that meant the express entry points dipped okay so if that happens you know um if that happens then great uh otherwise the way to convert 18,9 977 people would be to see a series of General category draws they have to go overboard the um you know the Regular Size draws of 2,500 people only then we can achieve the 481 number keep in mind the um you know the 40,000 people will also be bitten up by the CC only draw say 20,000 30,000 people or something like that um however this number could be brought in over by the other categories of you know all also like a carry forward but overall uh will we see a sub 500 draw I think sub 500 is a bit farfetch considering the latest announcement uh which was that they will have CC only draw if that announcement hadn't been there now then I would have been firmly positive about the fact that yes a sub 500 can be possible because the the way that these guys have been inviting people that's pretty slow and that number would blast up by the end of this year but because they suddenly pumped in the CC only draw I think that category will take up a chunk of people now the CC draw only could be a very low cut off okay that particular draw itself so that would not be a benefit to people outside Canada but yes if it's a cc only draw that is something that the people here in Canada would have been waiting for so for them it could be a positive news for everybody else outside Canada um I think closer to 500 would be a decent approach that you can look at uh if you're sitting anywhere close to 504 5 say you know 510 I think that would still be achievable because it's only 11,329 people even if you go by the regular size draw of you know say um approximately say 2,133 people just five draws plus say a 50% Target of people you know uh being added back to the pool people who you know reject the the invitations with that thought in mind so 20,000 is achievable in 10 draws we still have 19 draw weeks so if they continue to invite 2,000 people in the coming few weeks back to back 2,000 2,000 then we should definitely start seeing sub five you know lower 500 draws so that's for sure is uh something in my mind in as per my hopes I think it should be achievable for sub 500 it may not be achievable in the near future for a general category draw because looking at the the pending quas but it could definitely be achievable if IR CC you know plans to invite CC only from Express entry if they design a different category altoe say CC only there's a different PR2 PR type category then it will still continue to be the same then obviously the scores will not drop uh if that's a separate category altogether but if it happens so the CC only draw happens from the express entry then for sure sure you know then it would be definitely a lower draw again it would depend upon like I said you know uh the draw size and the uh you know the latest development that we said the draw size and timing when it would be invited and also the size of the general draw so this is my take on whether we will see the 500 you know uh only draw overall I think um um this particular part has been taken care of where I'm trying to explain you know um what kind of draws should we be seeing uh I think it is still not bad Express entry is still you know a good pathway because that is one of the only Pathways where people get uh p in larger provinces like you know Ontario British Colombia in addition tops and the rnps ircc is still working out on the on the pilot programs and they are still trying to overhaul the PNP programs but I think for people here in Ontario who don't have lmas and all I think for you express ENT still happens to be positive you know hope couple of key take that I do want to give people every time when I speak to them is that one do not think on when to uh you know apply for an Express entry you should submit an Express entry profile as soon as you can uh there is no waiting there is no special anecdote or anything so one key takeaway if you can from this video would be to create an Express entry profile as soon as will never get it guys overall this is my take on Express entry on whether it's going to be sub 500 when are you going to see the CC only draws and what kind of Express entry projections are we looking at I hope you got to take away something really important from this video and I wish the video was helpful to you if you want to discuss anything if you have a personal case to discuss with us please feel free to schedule a consultation with us the details are there in the screen we would be more than happy to speak with you once again we wish you all the best and we really hope to see you soon in Canada all the [Music] best
