What would war with North Korea look like?

like crying wolf much of the World Turns a deaf ear when North Korea threatens destruction on its enemies but now in his 13th year of running the country Kim Jong-un may actually be serious about armed conflict as his nation's nuclear capabilities and missile program have matured Kim is testing the boundaries of his new found strategic power in January 2024 he closed down agent IES working on reunification and removed like-minded statements from North Korea's Constitution Kim then went on a rant declaring he had the right to annihilate South Korea under normal circumstances such rhetoric would be dismissed however we live in an age of War think of Ukraine Israel Iran Ethiopia Etc an armed conflict in Korea is just the kind of War we could stumble into were recent provocations to escalate while it's true that North Korea has no chance of winning a war against the South The Fallout would see millions of artillery shells and thousands of rockets rain upon South Korea's capital Soul which sits a Stones throw away from the demilitarized zone that same region also happens to be home to the bulk of the massive South Korean economy the ramifications of such a conflict would be global imagine a deadly conflict smack in the middle of the second 3rd and 13th largest economies Supply Chains would collapse inflation would Surge and the global economy would be knocked off the rails clearly Kim's rhetoric cannot be dismissed easily so let's go over some scenarios if Kim decides to make good on his threats [Music] [Music] today's video is sponsored by conflict of Nations a free online strategy game where you choose a real country to lead into a modern global conflict up to 128 other players are moving their units across the map in real time so to win you need to form alliances and construct all types of units including tanks Jets and submarines conflict of Nations is a huge game it can take weeks for a game round to complete which makes Logistics as necessary as tactics the key to Victory is to think ahead and build alliances what I like most about the game is that you can play with the same account on both PC and mobile that convenience sets it apart from other games using our link below you will get an exclusive gift 13,000 gold and 1 month of Premium subscription for free the offer is only available for 30 days so get started sooner rather than later how would a war with North Korea happened well it's safe to assume it wouldn't be anything like in 1950 back then invading North Korean troops caught the US offg guard and swiftly took over much of the peninsula before the American American and South Korean counter offensive Pyongyang nearly achieved total Victory however the Allied Forces quickly rallied their numbers and reversed the situation pushing the North Koreans back and beyond their home bases almost reaching the Chinese border not surprisingly Beijing got involved which eventually led to a stalemate that resulted in a ceasefire treaty the Korean Peninsula has remained split at around the 38th parallel ever since Kim Jong-un is unlikely to repeat history not from a lack of will but from a lack of means South Korea has a clear technological superiority they would shoot down North Korean Jets even before they entered its airspace so a war between the two koreas is more likely to come about unintentionally a routine provocation for example could be misread and back and forth retaliation could spiral into a full out War the most likely place for such an incident is near the border islands in the Yellow Sea these islands are part of South Korea but are located in waters claimed by the north back in 2010 North Korean forces torpedoed a South Korean warship near bangong Island killing 46 Sailors a few months later that same island was the scene of a deadly artillery bombardment that killed soldiers and civilians alike suffice it to say that tensions are hot in the Yellow Sea even today as recently as January 2024 North Korea conducted military exercises near the border Islands South Korean president yunsuk Yol responded by saying if North Korea makes a provocation we will punish it multiple times over any Skirmish that escalates he even a peripheral attack in the Yellow Sea would quickly turn the crosshairs on Soul as the political and Industrial capital of South Korea Soul's greater metropolitan area is home to 26 million people soul is also home to about 70% of South Korea's $1.6 trillion economy it is the base for some of the world's top industrial Giants including Samsung Hyundai Motors LG Electronics and many more an armed conflict that touches Soul even a brief one would see the collapse of Global Supply chains which would then plunge the global economy into a recession unfortunately for soul it sits only 40 km away from the demilitarized zone across that line North Korea has placed about 12,000 artillery pieces stocked with millions of rounds of shells not to mention thousands of missiles and Rockets should the conflict go kinetic North Korea would likely Target high value military political and economic Targets in Soul according to a 2020 analysis by Rand just 1 minute of artillery and Rocket barrage would see 15,000 casualties in Soul if the barrage lasts more than an hour the numbers would climb to 100,000 according to the South Koreans the north can fire about 500,000 artillery rounds within the first hour and continue that pace for several hours so we're talking hundreds of thousands of casualties on day one just from conventional Firepower the mere thought of this capacity gives pongyang incredible political leverage North Korea keeps its howitzers mortars and Rockets in hardened positions and ready ready to fire on short notice for precisely this purpose at the same time according to South Korea's defense Ministry some 200,000 North Korean troops would try to cross the border by land sea air and even tunnel their objective would be to Target and destroy the infrastructure on the Han river that flows through the center of Soul doing so would split the city in two and trap millions of civilians from fleeing the scene by trapping the civilian population North Korea could then fire chemical weapons into the city pongyang has an arsenal of up to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons including chlorine gas Cyanide and sain under the right circumstances 1,000 kg of sain could terminate as many as 125,000 people so if such nerve agents were fired on Soul thousands would die with every passing minute it's the stuff of nightmares nevertheless that is where the North Korean Advantage stops South Korea is more than ready for a fight the country has Patriot defense systems that can intercept incoming missiles it has nearly 600,000 active duty personnel and more than 3.1 million in reserve the South Korean military budget is larger than North Korea's entire economy plus there are some 28,000 American troops based in the country and the South Korean military would enjoy access to American spy satellites without interruption should that still fall short us bombers in Guam and warships in Japan could come to South Korea's Aid admittedly North Korea has a Manpower Advantage the 200,000 North Korean troops that would cross into the South are part of the 1 1 million strong standing army however numbers aren't everything South Korean ground forces are better equipped and better trained their javalin missile systems would make short work of the Soviet era armored vehicles employed by the north of which there are about 6,500 and if that wasn't enough South Korea has F35 Jets equipped with high-end surfac to- a missiles that can deal with anything the north throws at it from the very first minutes of contact South Korea with the aid of the Americans would establish total air superiority in every way imaginable South Korean forces would Target hostile command centers ammunition sites Radars bunkers missile silos and nuclear facilities in hopes of wiping out as many hostile assets as possible the same Supremacy would extend into the naval domain nor North Korean submarines are Obsolete and can't stray far from the coast because that would make them detectable in a matter of days North Korea's military infrastructure Logistics and transportation Network would be destroyed and left defenseless but fighting on the ground would Linger on for a few more weeks if not months eventually though South Korea would gain the upper hand and move to take the cities in the north Soul would win but at a tremendous cost a cost so high that some might even consider it unbearable another possible scenario would be limited Warfare with North Korea a scene that was discussed during the Trump Administration limited Warfare in the form of preemptive strikes would only take place if Washington and soul believed a large scale North Korean attack was imminent the objective of limited Warfare would be to demonstrate the military superiority of the Allied Forces and remind Kim that he would meet a most unnatural end its purpose would be to deliver a message of deterrence the problem with limited Warfare is that it would very likely lead to full out Warfare what's more in recent years the bulk of North Korea's liquid fuel Rockets have been replaced by solid fuel systems which would take even less time to fire so the preemptive option would see North Korean missile and Rocket retaliation with little to no warning still worse if Kim misreads the American preemptive strike he might very well react by deploying nuclear weapons in January 2023 a Declassified paper by the US National Intelligence Council stated that Kim would only use nuclear weapons if he believed he and his regime were in Peril misreading a message of deterrence could fall into that category the precise number of North Korean nuclear weapons is unknown it is speculated to be somewhere between 40 and 90 Warheads with Kim's ultimate goal being to develop between 100 and 300 Warheads in the coming years one nuclear strike on Soul would cause up to 1.5 million casualties that's from just one Warhead North Korea could also strike against the US bases nearby including Busan okanawa and even Guam American casualties would mount in the thousands hitting Targets on the US Mainland is something that is also openly discussed but it is questionable whether the North Koreans have the ICBM technology at this point in time another variable to consider is China Beijing has historically acted as pyongyang's closest Ally fighting even aside the North Koreans during the first war China has every reason to prevent an armed conflict in its neighborhood a conventional or nuclear conflict would result in North Korea's eventual defeat and move American troops even closer to the Chinese border so armed conflict goes against China's interests even so beijing's influence over Pyongyang is limited in spite of close economic ties the Chinese have proven incapable of coercing the behavior of their North Korean allies for instance during the Trump Administration China cooperated with the United States on the UN Security Council to condemn North Korea's nuclear weapons program yet the Diplomatic Endeavor failed to change Kim's policy all it did was push North Korea closer into Russia's Embrace since then North Korean weapon sales to Russia have brought the two even closer to an understanding on the other hand however North Korean weapons sales to Russia may be the only silver lining in the entire strategic landscape Kim is selling millions of artillery shells to Putin worth billions of dollars that is bad news for Ukraine but good news for South Korea since it gives Kim a Lifeline to avoid conflict if Kim were genuine ly intent on going to war the last thing he would do is sell ammunition lest he risk running short of arms during wartime of course Kim could still completely go off script and disprove conventional wisdom it happened in Ukraine Israel Iran and it's just the type of conflict that can happen in Korea the only thing we can say with a level of confidence is that North Korea is ready to fight a war but it has no intention of starting starting one I've been your host chivon from Caspian report if you approve of what we do please leave a comment hit the like button and mayhaps share the video in any case thank you for your time and S [Music] [Music]

Channel: CaspianReport

Views: 572,677

Keywords: North Korea, Pyongyang, Koreans, South Korea, United States, China, Asia, Trade, Money, Power, Influence, Military, Army, Seoul, Capital, City, Companies, Economy, Finances, Caspian, Report

Id: m-_wwX2wufA

Length: 15min 54sec (954 seconds)

Published: Wed May 15 2024