Israel to launch ground invasion of Lebanon?

Israel has approved operational plans for war with Lebanon the move came after Hezbollah released threatening Drone footage over the Israeli Port City of hia located 27 km from the Lebanese border filmed in the daytime the footage showed civilian and Military areas including malls and residential quarters in addition to a weapons manufacturing complex and missile defense batteries the Drone footage is a bid to demonstrate hezbollah's ability to breach Israel's air defenses and reach deep into the country Israel's foreign minister called out hezbollah's leader and said that Israel is very close to the moment of decision to change the rules against Hezbollah and Lebanon underlining that in an allout War Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be severely hit later the head of the Israeli Northern command stated that they approved and validated plans to mount a ground assault north of the Border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have been mounting since the start of the Gaza War for months on end low-level hostilities have simmered across the border but recently things have picked up a notch this month alone the Israeli Air Force hit multiple military facilities and targets across Southern Lebanon which resulted in the death of a a senior Hezbollah Commander Hezbollah responded with a rocket barrage hitting factories and civilian areas in Israel since October 2023 more than 400 people have been killed in Lebanon with 25 deaths in Israel meanwhile at least 990,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon and more than 60,000 have been forced from their homes in Northern Israel suffice it to say the situation is on fire sometimes literally Israeli troops have been seen using a trebuchet to toss Fireballs across the border into Lebanon probably to burn Shrubbery so that hostiles can be identified more easily even so both sides are primed for a fight and war is itching closer whether we like it or not Netanyahu recently stated the end of the intense phase of the war in Gaza this could have two different outcomes either Israel is moving resources to the Hezbollah front or it is getting ready for a ceasefire in Gaza which is one of the preconditions to deescalate tensions with Hezbollah so it could go either way truce or more war ground news does a superb job providing all sides of the conflict I turn to their app and website whenever I research current events like this it's why I continue to partner with them nearly 150 articles have been published worldwide on netanyahu's comments with several different narratives Israeli headlines reference netanyahu's claims of the war winding down British government Associated BBC focuses on intense fighting in Lebanon while turkey government anadolu agency highlights the humanitarian crisis in Gaza comparing coverage in this way is crucial to see how strategic interests and hidden motives can shape public perception and ultimately influence global power I encourage you to go to ground. news/ Caspian to learn more subscribe through my link for 40% off unlimited access that's what I use for my analysis by subscribing you are directly supporting my channel in the late 6th Century BC as Chinese strategist sunu rested near the mouth of the yanga river he wrote one of his most renowned aphorisms he will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight for 8 months prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided that the time was not right to fight in the north at least not a full-fledged War but that policy seems to be rapidly falling apart whenever a skirmish erupts time is of the essence the more time passes the more the conflict escalates and the more the chances grow for a full out War Netanyahu and his cabinet fa the trial posed by sunsu is now the time to fight President Biden doesn't think so from the outset of the Gaza War America has thrown substantial diplomatic and Military heft to prevent the fighting in Gaza from spreading to Lebanon and Beyond no less than two aircraft carrier strike groups were deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean even so these measures didn't have the desired effect if they had any at all Hezbollah has since switched tactics it is now looking to impose pain on the Israeli population situated in Northern Israel and thereby encourage the civilians to leave the area permanently by making Israel's North unstable and unsafe Hezbollah is steadily making the region uninhabitable by all means what's going on between Israel and Lebanon is a war of attrition it's a test of who can hold out the longest of who can endure the most pain this map compiled with data from the nonprofit ACL illustrates the crossborder attacks from October 2023 to March March 2024 the blue circles stand for Israeli attacks while the orange circles represent Hezbollah attacks the bigger the circle the more attacks took place in the vicinity here near kirat Shona Hezbollah conducted 62 attacks in nearby margalot there were 56 attacks further north in Shabah Farms there have been 43 attacks while shaula and ARA in the South have each seen 43 and 39 attacks by Hezbollah Israel has retaliated strongly and more spread evenly the Lebanese town of AA al- shab has seen 190 Israeli attacks while in hola there have been 143 attacks still more to the West Ras Al nakora Alma asab and Ty Hara have seen 154 134 and 139 attack s respectively needless to say the whole region has been through the meat grinder so much so that the Israeli government has ordered the evacuation of communities along the Lebanese border some 60,000 Israelis have left their homes and this entire zone is off limits to civilians simultaneously on the other end of the Border more than 990,000 Lebanese have packed up their stuff and moved North away from the crossfire life has become unbearable however in recent months Israeli civilians from the northern towns have been increasingly demanding that netanyahu's government take practical steps to return them to their homes but American diplomacy seems to be out of ideas the gaps in the negotiations are deemed insurmountable and so all that is left is War as such Israeli military officials now speak more loudly and more often of a ground invasion of Lebanon meanwhile in his last video message Hezbollah leader Hassan nazala said that in case of War his army would fight without restraints without rules and Without Limits the mood is on edge if armed conflict were to erupt it would play out like a fir storm devouring everything in its path fighting Hezbollah would necessitate a long and complex conflict it's the type of warfare Israeli is frankly not set up to win admittedly Israel punches well above its weight in all domains of statecraft it has a robust military that enjoys untethered access to the American Arsenal and its defense Industries Israel also has a vast arsenal of missiles and Rockets it domestically produces numerous crew and ballistic missiles these can hit targets as far as Iran let alone neighboring Lebanon anti- radar missiles like Delila have a range of up to 300 km Laura ballistic missiles can fly as far as 280 km and artillery Rockets such as extra have a range of 150 km air to ground missiles like popey turbo have a range greater than 200 km while the Gabriel anti-ship missile can fly as far as 400 km these are the types of weapons that Israel can readily manufacture at home and in great quantity using these systems Israel can make short work of Lebanon however the complete military superiority that the Israeli military enjoyed for three decades has worn away years ago Hezbollah which was once seen as a poorly resourced militant group that could carry out occasional bombings and small hit and run attacks now holds capabilities associated with professional State militaries its fighting force numbers around 100,000 soldiers most of whom are battle hardened from Syria Hezbollah troops are trained like an army and equipped like a state it possesses a large and diverse stockpile of rockets and ballistic missiles as well as anti-air anti-tank and anti-ship missiles some of these weapons pose a genuine strategic threat to Israel for instance the fjer 5 has a range of 75 km the kar has a range of up to 100 km and the zelzal 2 missile has a range of 210 km which can hit targets as far as the Tel Aviv metropolitan area this is the heart of Israel the place where much of its population economy and industries are situated these three missiles also happen to be of Iranian origin collectively this arsenal of missiles and Rockets places Israeli security under constant pressure back in 2018 Hezbollah was estimated to have roughly 130,000 rockets and missiles however in June 2024 an official from Iran's KS Force overseeing Hezbollah operations went on record saying that Hezbollah had more than a million rockets and missiles if true and that is a big if but even if half that number was valid that is a massive jump in capacity which was previously not established for context a stockpile of 1 million rockets and missiles is more extensive than what the average NATO member has in house Israel's iron Dome as sophisticated as it may be would be overwhelmed if Hezbollah fired everything everywhere all at once however a full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel would be devastating to both that much is clear after 8 months of conventional conflict in Gaza Hezbollah is aware that all of Lebanon would be destroyed in the case of full out war with tens of thousands of casualties but Israel is also aware that what faced in Gaza over these past months without achieving all its objectives would be nothing compared to a war with Hezbollah what makes conflict with Hezbollah so complex is its entrenched nature like Hamas Hezbollah forces are deeply embedded in lebanon's civilian population tactical sites are often located in the heart of urban areas in a decentralized manner Israel would have difficulty in finding and destroying military targets as it did in Gaza but since Lebanon is much larger than Gaza hezbollah's Urban entrenchment means it would retain the capacity to attack Israeli targets effectively over time the only way to turn off this Advantage would be to bomb Lebanese cities from the air indiscriminately and then move Ground Forces to occupy the Strategic sites that's a lot of damage we're talking about it would be like the current Gaza a war but on a much larger scale in Gaza Israeli forces moved quickly and sliced through Hamas defenses above ground below ground however things have deviated from the plan Israeli special engineering units can deal with individual tunnels but they can't cover large networks effectively as such Israel has been unable to find strategic assets or senior Hamas leaders in Lebanon hostility would be orders of magnitude greater Hezbollah has far more advanced anti-tank weapons and attack drones if fighting took place in open territory Hezbollah troops would be able to Target and Destroy Israeli forces from kilometers away that's not a capacity Hamas has ever had what's more just like Hamas Hezbollah also has tunnel networks that run Underground Across Lebanon these Hezbollah tunnel are believed to be even more extensive than the ones used by Hamas plus consider that Lebanon is a mountainous land whereas the Gaza Strip is a flat terrain so fighting in lebanon's mountains against an enemy armed to the teeth and with tunnels running underground is not the best of ideas on top of that unlike Gaza which is geographically isolated from its sponsors in tan Iran has established ground and Air supply routes leading to Lebanon through Iraq and Syria that could be used to sustain hezbollah's forces in the event of a full-scale war again Israel is not prepared for a ground assault on Lebanon heck even if the Israelis moved into Southern Lebanon proper say 10 or even 20 kilm from the border Hezbollah would still be able to rain Rockets down across Israel considering the proximity between Israel and Lebanon and the massive stockpile that Hezbollah possesses numerous Israeli cities would likely be destroyed in the case of fullscale War Israel would inflict massive damage on Lebanon the Israeli defense minister warned that Lebanon would return to the Stone Age in the event of a war that may be true but Hezbollah would do the same to Israel's North with its massive Firepower Hezbollah would take down nearly all of Israel's essential infrastructure including oil refineries air bases and the Demona nuclear research facility the whole back and forth Carnage would end in yet another fragile ceasefire agreement which wouldn't Inspire much trust from the northern Israeli communities multinational businesses would move away from Israel Capital flight could take hold of the Israeli economy since nobody wants to set up shop in a place that sees armed conflict Israel's diplomatic economic and military position after the conflict would be worse than before so the price of war is far greater than its benefits so far Israel and Hezbollah have kept the escalations within the current framework and have used the UN interim force in Lebanon as a backdoor channel for dialogue Hezbollah despite it martyrdom rhetoric is not suicidal instead it prefers controlled escalation keeping its actions just below the threshold of fullscale War its actions so far have been to counter Israeli escalation with reciprocal measures with the aim being to establish a new deterrence that escalation might increase or decrease in the coming months we don't know what's on the minds of Lebanese or Israeli officials but if the escal goes beyond certain red lines for instance if there is a sudden spike in civilian casualties then fullscale War May yet become unavoidable the only way to step back is for Israel and Hamas to agree to a ceasefire and then negotiate for Hezbollah to respect that as well the available Firepower that both parties possess is too great to be applied so it stands to reason that peace is maintained by the equili ibrium of forces and will continue only for so long as this equilibrium exists I've been your host chivon from Caspian report if you approve of what we do please leave a comment hit the like button and mayhaps share the video in any case thank you for your time and soul [Music]

Channel: CaspianReport

Views: 641,433

Keywords: Israel, Lebanon, Israelis, Geography, Towns, Missiles, Drones, Footage, Iran, Crisis, Conflict, News, Media, CNN, BBC, CNBC, July, 2024, Biden, Netanyahu, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Palestine, Gaza, Soldiers, Power, Influence

Id: U3ksp5N68Ko

Length: 18min 28sec (1108 seconds)

Published: Mon Jul 01 2024