At exactly 6 AM on January 18th, 2014,Â
the sun began peeking above the horizon in  Luanda, Angola, marking the beginning of whatÂ
seemed, at the time, like any ordinary day. Just seven nautical miles offÂ
the coast sat anchored “Kerala”,  a Greek-owned, Liberian-flagged,Â
Angolan-chartered oil tanker. Kerala had just loadedÂ
60,000 metric tons of diesel  and was carrying a 27-person crew,Â
when something strange happened. The ship suddenly stopped broadcasting a signal.Â
Its owner tried but failed to make contact. As far as any map, satellite, or radarÂ
was concerned, Kerala stopped existing. An entire day went by… nothing. ThenÂ
another day. And another. Then five more. Finally, on Sunday, January 26th,Â
eight days after its disappearance,  the tanker emerged 1,300 milesÂ
north, off the coast of Nigeria. It wasn’t hard to put the pieces together:Â
13,000 tonnes of oil, worth $8 million,  was missing, one crew member injured, and theÂ
ship’s identification markers painted over. In case there remained any doubtÂ
that this was a clear case of piracy,  a suspicious tugboat had been sighted nearby. Instead, the plot thickened… Sponsored by Morning Brew — the free,  daily newsletter that keeps you up toÂ
date on the world of tech and business. When you hear the word “piracy”, you probablyÂ
think, consciously or otherwise, of Somalia. For a long time, this was theÂ
capital of maritime hijackings.  At its peak, in 2011, 736 crew membersÂ
and 32 ships were held hostage. Why Somalia? The answer seems obvious: The average person  lives just 57 years, and its GDP per capitaÂ
is the second-lowest of any country on earth. It ranks at the bottom, in fact, of nearlyÂ
every metric where data is available. But while most of the population livesÂ
on less than one US dollar a day,  just a few miles off the coast pass by shipsÂ
carrying many millions of dollars in cargo. To put things in perspective, Somali piratesÂ
collected an estimated $70 million in 2009, which  would make it the country’s third most lucrativeÂ
industry, after Gold, and sheep and goats. The actual cost of piracy, on the other hand,Â
is much larger. It includes not only the ransoms  themselves, but also the second-order costs ofÂ
prevention, insurance, and lost efficiencies. When everything, from hired security to longer,Â
alternate routes are factored in, a single  hijacking, between Europe and Asia, increases theÂ
overall maritime shipping costs that year by 1.2%. Now, around 2009, the worldÂ
collectively decided enough was enough. NATO’s Operation Ocean Shield was ledÂ
by the U.S., but everyone, from Norway,  to Pakistan, China, and even Russia pitched in. It’s a strange set of circumstancesÂ
that gets India and Pakistan,  the U.S. and Russia, and China and Japan toÂ
fight on the same side, but nobody likes pirates. And, to the surprise of no one,Â
guided-missile destroyers and  their assortment of Seahawk helicopters wereÂ
victorious over… a few dozen wooden skiffs. Since 2018, thanks to an aggressiveÂ
military response, both mercenary and naval,  no attacks have occurred in theÂ
international waters around Somalia. Piracy, it seemed, wasÂ
becoming a thing of the past. Then, like a game of whack-a-mole,Â
it sprung up somewhere else. This time on the other side ofÂ
Africa, around the Gulf of Guinea,  whose coastline stretches nearlyÂ
4,000 miles from Senegal to Angola. Today, a staggering 95% of all globalÂ
kidnappings occur in these waters. Eight of the nine ships fired upon in 2015Â
were traveling through the Gulf of Guinea. In 2017, over a third of allÂ
ships passing through the  region carried kidnapping and ransom insurance. Although it hasn’t yet reachedÂ
the level of Somalia at its peak,  the Niger Delta is becomingÂ
the new global piracy hotspot. Half of Nigeria lives in what theÂ
UN calls “multidimensional poverty”,  which measures both income, and otherÂ
factors like healthcare and education. Wherever there’s poverty plusÂ
opportunity, it seems, piracy will follow. Yesterday, Somalia. Today, Nigeria.Â
And tomorrow, somewhere else. Or, so it appears, on the surface. In reality,Â
what we’ve come to think of as “piracy”, is more  a result of specific circumstances within SomaliaÂ
than the explanations Hollywood popularized. Piracy in each region isÂ
based on entirely different,  culturally and economicallyÂ
distinct, business models. The central problem facing the country ofÂ
Somalia is that… it’s hardly a country, at all. Since the collapse of a centralized government inÂ
1991, Somalia has been ruled by regional fiefdoms  with varying degrees of law and order.Â
Over the course of one 16 year period,  no fewer than 14 failed attempts were madeÂ
to establish a new national government. The result is that, while most of the worldÂ
recognizes only one sovereign “Somali state”,  there are, in effect, several self-proclaimedÂ
independent governments and warlords. One of which, Somaliland, acts, in practice, likeÂ
any other nation — issuing its own passports,  holding its own elections,Â
and enforcing its own customs. This inability by the central government toÂ
project power beyond the capital, combined with  droughts, and aggravated by insurgents, meansÂ
that a general lawlessness pervades the region. The resulting unemployment is oneÂ
of the primary drivers of piracy,  yet, Somalis have simultaneouslyÂ
turned this into a strategic advantage. Anyone, anywhere in the world armed with anÂ
AK-47 and some bravery can attack a ship,  most of which really only travelÂ
at 20 or 25 miles an hour. The problem is what you do after that. The mostÂ
valuable cargo on a ship is its crew — from  which you can potentially extract anywhere fromÂ
700,000 to nearly 10 million dollars in ransoms. But kidnappings are no walk in theÂ
park. Fresh-faced pirates are promised  action and adventure but soon discoverÂ
they’re more like small business owners. Just as new franchisees realize all they’veÂ
done is paid for the right to flip burgers,  being a pirate isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Most of the job is spent transporting,Â
guarding, and feeding hostages,  doing bookkeeping, and,Â
above all… patiently waiting. For every one person holding a gunÂ
announcing “I’m the captain now”,  there’s at least one more doingÂ
the boring, grunt work on-shore. During the heyday, many coastal communities wereÂ
based entirely around supporting this “industry”. The average length of aÂ
kidnap-for-ransom operation  is 6 months, and some negotiationsÂ
drag on for over a year. That’s six whole months of justÂ
waiting, trying not to get caught. But herein lies Somalia’s advantage.Â
Its complete and utter lack of formal  institutions — a motivated police forceÂ
or functioning government — means that  its pirates can afford to hold hostages as longÂ
as necessary without fear of being found out. Then there’s West Africa. The region’s economic center is Nigeria, byÂ
far the most populous country on the continent. Nigeria is an oil giant. Its over 600 fieldsÂ
pump out 2 million barrels of crude oil a day. The industry generates 95% of the country’s  foreign exchange and 80%Â
of its budgetary revenues. Yet, in a classic case of the “Resource Curse”,  only about a quarter of itsÂ
oil is refined domestically.  The rest is shipped abroad, refined, andÂ
returned in an expensive and inefficient cycle. To avert protest against a systemÂ
that clearly benefits only faraway  corporations and corrupt local politicians,  oil imports are heavily subsidized — makingÂ
its fuel among the cheapest in the world. Corruption, resource dependency,Â
and exploitation mean that, despite  producing more oil than anywhere else in Africa,Â
Nigerians lack reliable access to electricity,  instead spending $9 million aÂ
year on fuel for generators. On top of all this, oil importers regularlyÂ
decide they aren’t getting properly compensated,  cut off supply, and createÂ
shortages across the country. The result is unmet demand for fuelÂ
and a pervasive sense of injustice.  It’s hard to feel constrained by the lawÂ
when it’s abundantly clear that no one,  from local administratorsÂ
to top officials do either. One way this manifests isÂ
illegal, makeshift oil refineries.  A group of… “entrepreneurs” will set-up campÂ
in the swamp, burn crude oil in open air pits,  and sell whatever comes out the otherÂ
end at gas stations across the country. The other way is known as “petro-piracy”,Â
an extension of the widespread plunder  of oil that occurs on rivers andÂ
pipelines across the Niger Delta. Unlike in Somalia, where mostÂ
pirate attacks are kidnappings,  a significant number here areÂ
oil seizures targeting tankers. In 2016, pirates stole 400,000 barrels of crudeÂ
oil every single day in the Gulf of Guinea,  for a total loss of $750 million in 2019 alone. Ironically, part of Nigeria’sÂ
problem is the opposite of Somalia’s. Where Somali piracy flourishedÂ
in the absence of a state,  piracy in the Gulf of GuineaÂ
is often enabled by it. Put another way: its problem is thatÂ
it has too strong a formal economy  and not enough lawlessness. Recall the case of Kerala. Logistically,Â
it would’ve been difficult to hide a ship  of that size for months at a time,Â
as was often done around Somalia. On the other hand, some semblanceÂ
of formal institutions and markets  are an asset for Nigerian pirates — there’sÂ
always an unscrupulous buyer for stolen oil. Petro-piracy is sophisticated. For starters,  it happens really fast — sometimes oil isÂ
seized and re-sold in a matter of hours,  quickly and untraceably moving betweenÂ
the 20 countries in the Gulf of Guinea. Attacks often require insiderÂ
information, connections, and planning. Some studies suggest there’sÂ
a kind of “sweet spot” between  anarchy and order that maximizesÂ
opportunities for piracy. After a ransom was successfully paid for MVÂ
Victoria, a freighter attacked around Somalia  in 2009, for instance, pirates offeredÂ
to stay on board until it reached safety  to ensure it wasn’t hijacked by a competing gang. Similarly, when al Qaeda tried to set up shop inÂ
Somalia during the 90s, it was frustrated by its  lack of policing. Self-protection is costly andÂ
time-consuming, even for pirates and terrorists. When Kerala was eventually found, theÂ
Angolan Navy conducted an investigation. Its verdict? The whole episodeÂ
was faked. There was no hijacking,  and the suspicious tug was, instead, a “replica”. What this means is either that someone onÂ
the ship itself coordinated the attack,  or the Angolan government dismissed evidenceÂ
of what would be the most Southern attack in  the Gulf of Guinea at the time, worrying thatÂ
it would deter shippers and harm the economy. As you can see, the lines betweenÂ
the formal and informal economies,  and the “good” and “bad” guys are blurred andÂ
sometimes even change from one day to the next. The lesson, if there is one, is that stampingÂ
out piracy once and for all is nearly impossible. Take the case of Somalia. While it’sÂ
true that the robust, multilateral  naval response was indeed effective, itÂ
wasn’t quite as successful as it may seem. Rather than disappearing overnight, piratesÂ
and nearby ships, especially fishing vessels,  reached a sort of mutual agreement: Pay us forÂ
a “fishing license” and you won’t be disturbed. Nigerians, likewise, conveniently,Â
though at times convincingly,  argue that oil companies, who profit fromÂ
but give very little back to the country,  are the real pirates — extracting valueÂ
from the land for the benefit of few. As long as these fundamental inequalities remain,  piracy will only adapt in its outward appearanceÂ
— moving on land and changing in name. …One thing that hasn’t changed much isÂ
how we get our news. I can spend hours  scrolling through Reddit and Twitter and notÂ
really remember anything. Today’s sponsor,  Morning Brew is a better way to stay up to dateÂ
on the world of tech, business, and finance. What I like about Morning Brew is that it’sÂ
self-contained. There’s a start and an end,  not an infinite scroll. Every issue isÂ
interesting, witty, and condensed, so  you can feel accomplished, up-to-date, and learnÂ
something new in the first 10 minutes of your day. In a recent Morning Brew, for example, IÂ
learned that Amazon today has double the  number of employees it did at the start of 2020.  Amazingly, it also makes more revenueÂ
from advertising than YouTube! Click the link on-screen or in the description nowÂ
to sign up for the Morning Brew newsletter 100%  completely free and in just 15 seconds.  Sign up, give it a try, and thanks againÂ
to Morning Brew for sponsoring this video!
Glad to hear PolyMatter mention the abrupt endings that seem to be a common thing in Nebula videos. To be honest, I'd be fine with something like a thank you for patrons just rolling at the end almost like credits. But I don't think he emphasizes those in his videos.
Also, I can just unlearn the expectation of there being more after the actual video ends.
Wake up babe, new Polymatter video just dropped