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math, science, and computer science one, intuitive step at a time. Like most places on Earth, Thailand has had
a strange year. Its largest city, Bangkok, is the world’s
number 1 most visited city, measured by international arrivals. As the pandemic spread across the globe, it
felt an even greater impact than other well-traveled cities like Paris, London, and Dubai. Markets, nightclubs, and temples were now,
suddenly, empty, after teeming with foreigners for years non-stop. But only after a brief calm period of strictly-enforced
curfew, were the usual swarm of visitors replaced with a new one: pro-democracy protestors. Thousands of loosely organized students flooded
the streets of Bangkok, defying the emergency lockdown orders to incite change long overdue. They ask for the resignation of the Prime
Minister and reforms to the powerful monarchy. Currently, anyone found to have “defamed,
insulted or threatened” Thai royalty can be jailed for years, while the king spends
much of his time relaxing at his villa in Germany — paid for by the Thai public. One of the country’s vocal opposition parties
was legally dissolved by the courts in February. But while Thailand’s current lack of tourists
is highly unusual, these protests are not the least bit. One of the few consistencies in Thai politics
is their extreme turbulence — the country has cycled through more governments than almost
anywhere else in the modern world. This timeline shows every coup and attempted
coup since 1910 — roughly twenty-one — though there have been so many that experts disagree
on the precise number. Notable is not just the sheer number but also
the frequency. The longest a single government has maintained
power is fifteen years, and just twice in the entire period. Only three other nations have had more constitutions
— Haiti, Venezuela, and the Dominican Republic. But there’s a less obvious reason for Thailand’s
instability — one that has nothing to do with the monarchy, democracy, or even politics
whatsoever. Looking at a map you can tell a lot about
a country. Take away all labels, markers, and otherwise
human-generated data, and you still can identify the ingredients of a nation: How big or small it is, which rivers or oceans
it has access to, who its neighbors are, climate, latitude, forestation, shape, and so on. All of these things can affect a country’s
political stability. A small, European nation situated between
two large powers and landmasses? You can expect plenty of invasions. And it’s no surprise that this hunk of snow
has been well protected from attack. But what you can’t tell from looking at
a map, is a country’s concentration of power. Big or small, much more important when it
comes to stability is where decisions get made — how many places and how far apart
they are. Of course, in no nation is power truly divided
evenly — it always concentrates in pockets, just as water droplets naturally attract and
combine. This is no surprise — Civilization, in general,
develops unevenly. Once cities are founded, they experience network
effects. When there’s a critical mass of energy,
transportation, buildings, and jobs, more people move, which in turn creates more of
all those things, which, again, attracts more people, and so on, until they spill over into
neighboring cities or grow to consume them entirely. Still, there are limits. For example, simple geography may support
several centers of power, like LA and New York on opposite coasts. The other reason for this growth ceiling is
countervailing forces. For example, as cities like San Francisco
grow, demand pushes rent to untenable levels, forcing an exodus in the opposite direction. So, while a country’s largest city is usually
far bigger than its second -largest, this proportion varies based on many factors, like
economic development. We can see this fact reflected in this list
showing the ratio of a country’s largest to second largest city — it’s “primacy
ratio”. Those largest cities which are at least twice
as large as the next largest are said to be “primate cities” — they exert outsized
influence on the nation as a whole and represent it almost exclusively to the outside world. For example, the greater London area is home
to nearly 10 million inhabitants, far more than second place Manchester. Similarly, Mexico City is home to around 9
million people, about 7 million more than any other. There are many other examples, including Cairo,
Paris, Jakarta, and Seoul — but, without a doubt, the absolute most primate of them
all is Bangkok, Thailand — with at least 10 million people, depending on where you
draw the metropolitan boundaries. This dwarfs the country’s second largest
city, which has only 385,000 people. That’s a ratio of at least 26:1. No other large nation has a population this
unbalanced — and yet, it’s home to nearly 70 million people — meaning almost everyone
lives either around Bangkok, or in one of its hundreds of small, distant cities. The capital magnetically concentrates nearly
every major institution, because where else would they go? Bangkok is home to two large airports — one
serving as the hub for international flights, and the other for shorter regional ones. Its fifty districts reportedly grow by as
many as a million people during the day, as workers commute from their homes outside the
metropolitan area. The city is also home to nearly all of Thailand’s
major universities, along with the vast majority of its hospitals. Altogether, Bangkok contributes 29% of the
national GDP. In 2010, it accounted for 80% of all urban
land. How does any of this relate to hourly coups? That’s where geography and politics collide… Because not only are all of Thailand’s museums
and schools here, but also all it’s “action”. It houses the headquarters of all its major
banks, multinational corporations, the national Stock Exchange, national newspapers, broadcast
media, publishers, and, most importantly, branches of government. Bangkok singularly holds the country’s monarchy,
military, and bureaucracy — which, in turn, appoints all provincial governors and district
officers. For obvious reasons, Thailand has greatly
benefitted from this close proximity — indeed, many nations nurse primate cities as a strategy
for rapid development, hoping to later export their work across the country. Every financial or political decision can
be made and executed within a few hour’s drive — there are no time delays or words
lost in translation. On the other hand, there’s also a downside. Bangkok is a single, imperative chokepoint,
whose capture or disruption can cause every category of chaos across the rest of the nation. And small but symbolic and important, physical
arteries — roads, monuments, and government buildings, are exactly the sites protestors
seek to occupy and interrupt. The area’s unusually poor city planning
— or, lack thereof — ensures that many streets are extreme bottlenecks, which, if
blocked, can freeze entire regions. All of these factors predispose Thailand to
frequent coups — though not necessarily successful ones, since after the physically
small territory is captured, it can easily fall again. Of course, geography doesn’t solely or even
principally explain Thailand’s instability, there are other political and structural reasons
which would be foolish to overlook. For example, its mix of democratic institutions
and unchecked royalty creates inevitable tension. But the primacy of Bangkok ensures that, when
they do happen, coups are relatively quick and decisive. Just as important, the extreme contrast in
living conditions, opportunities, and wealth between the nation’s capital and the other
85% or so of the country fuels the desire for change in the first place. In other words, the very same inequalities
which make revolution possible, also motivate them, as the rural population craves the same
attention and resources as the city. While these facts do not necessarily doom
Thailand to an eternity of coups, they make real, lasting change a slow effort. Still, progress is very much possible. The latest round of protests has broken the
decades-long seal on criticizing royalty, opening the door to honest and open debate. When structural progress is eventually made,
it will be thanks to the hard-fought protests of today. If you’re interested in politics, you’re
probably curious to know where the world is going next. And the best way to predict the future is
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