Why the world population won’t exceed 11 billion | Hans Rosling | TGS.ORG

so an overview would be like this in the past the two parents on average got six children the reason the population was not growing here from the year 2000 from the year you know when we started agriculture way back then 5,000 years ago it took five thousand years to go from ten million to 1 billion this is 1 billion here it is because 1 2 3 4 died sadly before growing up to have children themselves the past was ugly human beings have never ever lived in ecological balance with nature that's a myth people have been dying in ecological balance with nature it's due to high and tragic death rates of children and young people that there's been a balance between human and nature and that's ugly and people hated it and they wanted their children to survive and after the Industrial Revolution we got soap industrially produced soap we got piped water and we got some medical actions you know and instead of for dying for survived and to died and that caused the growth of the population you see to parents for children doubling in one generation 25 years 1 billion to two billion 25 years more 2 billion to forbid and there we went to 7 billion people and this is what many co population explosion raghava yeah but it was inevitable we didn't want kids to continue to die and people would not apply family planning until they saw their kids surviving all this the death rate has to fall before the birthrate is falling and and and then many call this exponential growth have you heard the term exponential growth this is exponential faster and forever since 1960 we have had no exponential growth whatsoever we've had an absolutely linear growth and for those of you doing math you know that linear grow of means that the interest rate is falling every year we added 1 billion in 14 years 1 billion in 14 years 1 billion in 14th year that means the adding of billions did not become faster and faster but there's so much crap written and said about population growth so they are put in these X's explosion exponentially and you argue for things based on scare trying to scare people instead of making them understand here now we have a situation where we will add another 4 billion in spite of already having reached the new balance this is strange why will we add 4 billions when the number of children have stopped increasing right strange this one the balance was controlled by death it was ugly and unacceptable people would never accept that they tried their best this balance is controlled by love by being able to disentangle sexuality and reproduction and some religious leaders haven't got it yet we try to make it very simple to understand this is a good thing it's a good thing that you can separate those two and and and why will it be 11 billions well I have some more improved educational material from Gapminder here I brought these blocks here imagine that this is 1 billion people you can see here 1 billion people and these ones or children below 15 here's the edge see they are below 15 these are the children there 2 billion in the world next age group 15 to 30 there are also almost 2 billions I'm going to simplify not falsify but simplify really it's actually 1.8 or something here but I say to Bill next group I say it's 1 billion it's actually 1.4 but they are less here next group 45 to 60 1 billion almost precisely 1 bin then it's my group 60 years and older and we are not really 1 billion but almost and we take the help by some really old people who join our group here so we have this is the world population today this is the world the compositional world population you could call it a population pyramid more in the base than up here now many think that the reason these are missing is because they died no no some are missing because they died most are missing because they were never born it was back then 30 to 60 years ago there were fewer people born because there were fewer women then more and more survived and then we got this situation now the number of children will not increase these to billions will remain to billions for the rest of this century and the 71-year of life expectancy won't increase that much so let's assume that that stays the same so if number of children stays the same length of life stays the same what will happen because there's some people telling me the environmental problems are so severe so we have to stop world population below 10 billion hi is that so have you studied demography I think yes yes yes we have to stop it no you can't I see and I will show you know why you can't stop it below 10 because imagine let's look at it let's look at my group what happened to people like me do you know that no one has a family that are Undertaker's they die we die the old people die some think we become angels some things we just disappear anyhow they disappear what happens to the rest of you you grow older you grow older and older and older and 15 years from now you have changed age group and then other children come and replace you down there can you see same amount of children as I show you then they old died the rest grow older and older and older and get the same amount of chill thirty years from now then they old die is not so difficult you get it now they die the rest grow older and older and older and here they are I mean this this is you started down there most of you students one two three this is when you are up here you are 60 years old you become like me you see when you are like me it's filled up to here and we have three billion more you saw the magic without increasing the number of children without increasing the length of life we got three billion more I'll do it once more because you're in doubt the summit thing here I made this up you know in some way the old dies the rest grow older and they get children they all die the rest grow older they get children they all die the rest grow older they get children and there are inevitably you will have three billion more people because death starts up here at this edge relatively few die here a 135 million children born six million die every year it's down to 5% that's mainly down here our depth then death rate is relatively low all the way up because life expectancy 71 now in spite of instead of getting shorter life what we think is that we will get longer life and we think we will get 1 billion more up there because I'm very happy of that that will give me 15 years more to follow statistics you know so now that there is some people just wrote in the Swedish newspaper and criticized means that we must be less than 10 billions but who should we take away which one do they want to remove there should be that you know they take away the old but is still 10 billion stay until then you want to take more can you kill these two no say no for God's sake it's for better don't be in doubt it's absolutely forbidden ourself not clean haven't you read the Bible so what shall you do what shall you do I think you will have to do it like this you have to force people to just a one child do you see if you do not much the tomb date say you introduce one child French it's very delicate here to be careful if they did it like this then they can get a failure you think people voluntarily will go for one child no I suggested to the leader of the Swedish environmental party who argue that one time and said that that you know we should have less people in the world I said I am we talked with her and I said yeah why don't you start with Sweden there because we are one of the rich country that increased the number of children per room it's quite easy you just take away the child allowances the subsidies for the daycare center and you put in school fees three simple measures as a politician the number of children per woman the Sweden will drop from two to 1.5 of course you will lose the next election action and you have to make a coup d'etat you know and become dictator it's very strange how serious people can suggest this now I share the concern about the environment I share the concern about elephants and rhinos I share more than anyone else the consider to concern about the climate but I ain't going to kill people to achieve I ain't going to force people to get sterilized I ain't come to become Nazi - because it won't work people won't accept they won't accept it and and and here you can see so I think we will have to yes this is like oh you can't you can't mix up with population like that it's very dangerous have to be careful with people all right you have to be very careful with people so they can live this in their life I think the solution for the world lies in respecting people you know and seeing what it is and that's not difficult we know everyone should have access to contraceptives everywhere but not be forced because if you force people it will backfire and we know that the poorest in Africa they will not use contraceptive as long as they say their children die as long as they don't have a school in the village as long as they need their children for work Malala said they don't go to school because they have to work to support their family and as long as things are like this they want their kids and then some wants their kid a little too long many kids because some men are proud because I made so many children and when men think that their pride is having seven eight nine children instead of how well their children are doing that's old-fashioned Patriarca girl thinking men have to think my pride is how well my children are doing how happy they are in life that's my pride and when you get that attitude change you have to get it's not only providing services this is the number of births in the world it has already happened the number of births is not increasing any longer in the world the adults are increasing you get it now you understand why these adults already it's these three just by the fill-up and it's this group here but it's more to it it's more to it we have to go a little more into details a little more into details look here now it's late in the evening and I put a demanding explanation demography here to you each doll here is hundred million now these one were thousand millions 1 billion thousand 8 now ten out of these dolls is one here down here I have what is it should be about twenty down there these ones are Europeans children these are American children these are African children as many children in Africa as in the whole of the Americas in Europe together and these are Asian children and you can see that at the age between fifteen and thirty then there are less Africans he is even less African he is very few Africans so the African population is quite dramatic it's in increasing the number of children in Asia they've stopped increasing remember the Asian curve it was already down to two so Asia is not increasing Africa is at four point five they will continue to increase for another thirty years more or less 30 years so what happens here is the following you know it now the old dies the rest grow older and they have their children whoop one more in Africa one less in Asia that's why the number of children doesn't increase the increase of children in Africa is compensated by a decrease of children in Asia and Europe but Europe is so little it doesn't matter much they die they grow older and they get children one more in Africa out of things like this out of four children in China that pass their 15th birthday three are replaced by a Chinese baby born and one is replaced by the Nigerian baby born that means that children conceptually are moving from Asia to Africa children in the world remain the same but they are moving towards poverty because in poverty the number of children increase where countries are more wealthy the number decrease that's why it's a good reason to support UNICEF children in the world need support and here they die they get older and they get children and they die and they get older and they get children and this is the Phillipa battles you remember the three billion show you here these three billions is the same as that group there when I make it in more detail it's a fill up of people and that's why Africa will increase so much and Asia will increase so much Africa also increase here because an increase of children and Asia decrease down there so longer life this one I hope to be this one I can follow statistics for 15 more years you know and see what happens this we don't know we don't know here you see if people want to decrease the number of people in the world they think provide prevent contraceptives in Africa yes go for it but don't think you can force poor women's poor women are clever otherwise they are dead don't think they are dumb they want many children it's because they see their children dying they need their kids who help them they get the better life mediately they will ask first for family planning to space children to wait for the next child and then decide how many they with that this is a new tool that Gapminder have made on our webpage

Channel: THINK Global School

Views: 1,581,814

Rating: 4.7774153 out of 5

Keywords: World Population (Literature Subject), Hans Rosling (Academic), Statistics (Field Of Study), Population (Quotation Subject)

Id: 2LyzBoHo5EI

Length: 16min 36sec (996 seconds)

Published: Tue Dec 01 2015

Reddit Comments

[u/lLoveLamp]

I tend to agree with anyone who waves a harpoon around

[u/56shayjayoh]

Sad to hear him at the end hope he would have 50 more years to share his knowledge of demographics. Brilliant man gone too soon.

[u/Tetsuo666]

That's a really big laser pointer he got there !

On a more serious note, that was very interesting and it dispelled a lot of misunderstanding of demography on my part.

Thanks for posting that !

[u/Cbird54]

Just so we're clear every scientist who's ever predicted the cap to the world population has been wrong because of technology they couldn't have predicted was invented that solved a particular issue.

[u/ToxicAdamm]

I discovered Hans about a decade ago and his talks radically changed my viewpoints on humanity.

We spend so much time mired in the bad news and the existential anxiety of the future that we don't even take the time to fully appreciate the wonder and joy of the now.

Hopefully his words and ideas live on for many decades and inspire others.

[u/scarfaceDeb]

Great and well explained video

[u/ElagabalusRex]

I always wonder how quality of living trends over time. Malthus believed that technology will eventually bring about suffering as the population outgrows the resources needed for comfortable living. Population growth is actually slowing to a stop, but even a constant population consumes non-renewable resources.

[u/[deleted]]

He died?

[u/StarMasher]

This guy always had some of my favorite Ted talks and videos explaining statistics in simple and interesting ways.