What Truly Influences Stocks to Go Up and Down!

hello and welcome to talking well I'm Dow gillham the chief analyst here at wealth within today we've got a great topic for you it's about mood and the market cycles and uh we'll actually be talking to you about why the length of women's dresses can tell you what the market is all about I want the psychology on the market is all about also music and a few other things but before we get into all of that I need to introduce my co-host to Janine Cox how are you great thanks how are you today I'm saying oh look I'm fantastic I think you know it's exciting things on the market but I'm actually excited about what we're going to talk about because we actually did this presentation probably about nine years ago gosh that was fun I still remember this one when you were bringing up the slide before I was just looking at it and thinking oh my goodness I can just remember standing out in front of everybody and we just had so much fun that night I was a real fun and there's a lot of how do I say a really really good information about how to recognize what's going on in the marketplace because all the talk when we look at this the top level stuff you know like dividend your dps's PE ratios or we might look at a chart but this is really coming at it from a different angle completely different angle and um this was a presentation we did on our what we used to do a regular art of trading Workshop so this is on a Friday night we were invited not just our students in but other people and we haven't been doing those for a couple of years those art of trading workshops but it was a presentation on that and so I haven't really changed the slides I've got an update on one of them that I can flick to which is about the history of the Australian stock market in the share prices but pretty much I haven't changed them and you might go well why didn't you update them down and the answer is I didn't need to they're just as relevant today as what they were in nine years ago I thought oh look I'll do some new optimists because the same things repeat over and over again they do because you know this is using Optimus six you know or Market analysics at the time I'm an hour on Optima which is like nine or ten but the chart still says exactly what it should be saying and gives us the information that we need so I think this is one of those misconceptions that people see when they look at a recording they go oh yeah your charts are 10 years old or yeah or they look at my book how to beat their managed funds by 20 you know which you can still get for free just by going to our website and you just got to pay the shipping and you know that was 10 years ago last time that was updated and people go oh it's out of date now no it's not it's still just as relevant to today some of the best facts and amazing techniques come from decades ago oh yeah it's like reading to me it's you know we read books all the time on investing or trading or whatever else and some of the best books and stuff that I've read from the 50s and the 40s yeah that it's just as relevant today but you know we digress and I really do need to take people into food yeah oh well into I was going to say to you do you know what mood I'm in today hopefully it's a good one I know you're wearing it you're wearing a computer that means your heart color therapy doesn't it I'm just guessing here like red is fiery and anger yeah um but you know but you went angry last time you wore a red top in here yeah it's actually the the highest level in the in the chakras the purple purple all right so you're you're going to be operating from your highest level today and give everybody the best of you see therefore you're in a great mood yep yes okay mood is a four-letter word though it can be changeable cool but we want to get into the first thing on the first thing I want to talk about is the myth now the myth is that most people believe that stock market movement is caused by fundamental economic and political conditions and events well are you not got nothing to say about that plenty I mean there are so many so many things that we could talk about here that some of them we probably can't talk about here without being considered lunatics so you know maybe maybe we don't go down that path I mean occasionally I've gone into those types of areas with people and they just look at you as if to say what planet are you from which is a bit of a clue in itself but you know when we're talking about what's going on from a fundamental and economic point of view initially people look at it and think two-dimensionally that that's a cause and effect direct cause and effect which at times there can be in the shortest term sense but the bigger picture influences uh are something much greater again well it is I mean it's logical to go well yeah the fundamentals Drive the stock market economic conditions right now we've got higher um inflation rates interest rates are going up those sorts of things are happening but there's stuff that happens Time and Time and Time and Time and Time Again over hundreds of years you know but we do go into new ages though well we do we do but that's what we're saying this is the myth is most people believe that the stock market movement is caused by these fundamental economic and political conditions but is that what causes the stock market to move or is the stock market moving a reflection of our mood and then these events happen so is it the chicken or the egg and that's the question that's what I'm proposing is it is this is the chicken or the egg here and we're talking about what actually moves them out so what causes economic events what causes economic events what causes fundamentals to change what causes political conditions to change what cause events to change so is it where of reflection or the stock market is a reflection of of the market of the economics yeah or is the economics eventually reflects the market mood that's what we're going to talk about now I want to read a statement from a gentleman called Robert prechter and he um did a study now Robert prechter who's um one of the proponents of Elliott wave principal so some of our students would be aware of Elliott wave now this is from a book I remember back in this was a book I got back in 2003 um and it's called pioneering studies and socioeconomics well it's actually not a book it's a two book series big books and they're borings old Jack they really are boring because they're very academic books but it talks about socioeconomics all the economies or economics of the social mood of the marketplace but if you're really into investing and trading um probably good books to read but expect to fall asleep while you're reading them and I'm not saying it's a bad book they're great books but it's just it's a very good place to sort of get an idea about the overall impression of things especially as you read in the first couple of pages I know but we're going to quote we're going to bring up some of the stuff that's in within that book but I want to quite do this quote from Roberta from the book um and the book was launched in 2003 and he goes Robert practices both the study of the stock market and a study of Trends in popular attitudes support the conclusion that the movement of aggregated stock prices is a direct recording of mood and mood change within the investment community and by extension within the society at large people could say okay well well interest rates have been going up therefore it's going to affect the mood correct but is that affecting the stock market because my interest rates going up well that's right so it's actually what's happened before that is the info driving influence the interest rates only got because the economy is is going too fast why is the economy going too fast yeah we're going back and back and back out asking questions correct the chicken or the egg so we're getting price Rises what causes price Rises so there's always a cause and effect interest rates are going up because the government says we're spending too much money yep so why are we spending too much money what caused the Roaring Twenties what caused the 60s and what caused the whole Road what caused the 70s when we had a recessionary environment the oil crosses there's this list of things just go on and on and on so that's what we're talking about now and why is it but I want to ask you a question why is it important to understand the mood of the market today because I think if you understand the mood of the market then you you can make a decision whether to try to swim against a current or to go with it that's a simple thing and if you know how the mood of the market is and what that means in terms of the stocks and Investments that you're likely to put your money in then you're more likely to sort of be prepared to not um to go with the flow when it's going and to pull back from that when um you need to so it's it's just having that huge awareness of what's going on that's so important okay next question I've got for you now that recently and your self-awareness of course let's say because you don't want to get pulled into the current well that's true a lot of people aren't self-aware are they but without controlling it you want to be you want to be self-driving and self I guess correcting in terms of what you're doing and the decisions you're making rather than it's all about the herd mentality isn't it well it is I know there's you know the it's a fact that oh awareness brings change if you're aware of something you can bring change and so therefore things aren't working for you then what isn't in you that's not working that that is keeping you where that is where you are by having getting an awareness of what you're doing that's causing that what the outcome that you're getting then you can choose to keep it or change it and most people would choose to change it if it's a negative outcome but I also want to say okay so understanding the mood of the market now is it more important to understand the mood of market now or where the mood's going to be moving to well I think both but it's more about where the mood is moving to from to make sure that you can set your sales and adjust yourself in New Direction but it's also now because you want to be in the moment right now to be able to make the best possible decisions that you can and separate yourself and almost rise above what's going on so if you know the mood of the market the mood of the media is about negative and doom and gloom then you can not get sucked into that emotional vacuum and be able to be um I guess rational yeah now the other week in a podcast a little recently in sorry in our live stock market show that we do on talkingwell.com so if you haven't seen that head over to talking wealth.com oh you're telling me to go and have a look no you you're already on it um you're one of the superstars of it you actually made a did a quote by I think we call him the founder of modern economics Keynes um and you talked about anticipating that the anticipation yes so do you remember the actual quote not off the top of my head but you said it it was only very short and that's really what it was so basically you need to anticipate what the mood in the market is that's where I take it so into my mind if you understand where the mood is now you may be able to understand where the mood is Shifting and we're going to give people some of that in anyway during this whole podcast that we're doing we're going to show so if you are listening to this podcast as an audio on iTunes or whatever you listen to we are doing a PowerPoint presentation as we're doing this so there's some other charts and some of the information we brought up would be great for you to go and look at that on YouTube so we're doing so if you go to YouTube and you type in wealth within TV you'll be able to bring up wealth within TV and you'll be able to see the graphics that we're talking about so that you can help you understand where the mood is now where the mood is likely to go to because later on we're going to ask you to think about where you think the mood is right now let's move on so we talked a little bit about what Robert practice said now there's another statement this one's by a gentleman pork I've got to put my glasses on for this one his name is Peter at water and um and he talked about moods and markets and he said the S P 500 which is referring to the US market the S P 500 is to social mood what the thermometer is to temperature wow so what do you get from that one it's just telling us what's going on absolutely because if the S P 500 is the social mood is to social media what the thermometer is to temperature what he's saying is our mood measures what's happening with the S P 500 this is going to do a lot of people's heads in you realize that don't you I hope so that's my intention if the head's done and that means they're curious and that means we've actually pushed them because through discomfort comes growth yes and if we keep telling people what they've always known they're not learning that's true and our job is to push people a little bit past what they may think or maybe get them to challenge some of their beliefs or they're thinking about how the market is working or what actually happens okay so they may or may not believe us but yeah test it so the scenario then okay if the S P 500 is rocketing up yep social mood yep is that's that's already gone to the Mars it's really gone because the S P 500 is the thermometer of what the social media is already doing so if we're really excited and we're you know we're bullish on what we think the future's like and we're happier we're building houses we're doing all sorts of stuff we're going to drag the S P 500 along with us that's right in Australia or the us or whatever country that you happen to be listening at the moment is is that people drive the market not the other way and that's really what we're talking about in terms of the chicken yeah so if we if we create a scenario let's just say where somebody puts out a virus okay and then it creates massive waves like covid through people I'm not saying covert like covered um and then I've said it and then then be prior to that governments around the world were pumping money into the economy like they could there was no tomorrow and then they turn around and pump more money in to the economy and then they overheat economies of the world they do because we're now people have more money in their pockets because interest rates were so low you've got this huge Melting Pot or almost like you know an incredible vacuum if you like for things to change suddenly and then we're seeing now that the mood is changing because basically the stock markets are volatile but down and sideways and at some point that's got to change so okay let's just say for example that the mood is being influenced by something a social mood and then as the mood starts changing we start to see that in the share price now you and I know that we can see a change really early on because technical analysis starts to show us that before it even appears in the media that that people ought to be looking at stocks because the theory is that the Market's already run hard before the media starts saying that this you know telling people or their stories start popping out saying it's now the times to buy so yeah yeah so if the thermometer is the thing that's more accurate because if you think about a thermometer it's pretty quick isn't it and telling you that there's a temperature change same with the chart yeah same with the chart but of course there could be fluctuations in temperature that then see the temperature go the other way just as we see with the stuff so it's about looking for when the temperature becomes more reliable yeah yeah so we're going to show you how to measure that so we're going to show you certain things through this presentation that you can use to actually measure the mood of the marker which is whatever the temperature is on the thermometer is it getting hot or is it cold are we expanding or Contracting in the economy so let's keep moving on so obviously we talked about you know the S P 500 is to social mood what if you know whatever it is but there's another Market myth we want to talk about or another myth that we talk about markets often rise and fall on news Okay investors often mistakenly watch for news to make investment decisions the reality is that these moves are generally short term because we don't see a lot of people they watch the news and you know if you know what do you call it Donald Trump said something the market would react but is that really what drives the market or not no I mean like you said it's a short-term move but the interesting thing that you can you as the investor can gauge from that is that how long does the market actually stumble over that does it recover really quickly because that's really telling a tale because if there is going to be a change in the direction of the market if those sorts if things keep coming up to try to trip people if you like and over time that doesn't trip and the market still keeps going north instead of south then you know that we're going into more much more of a bull market I I liken it to the QE2 right the big big big ocean liner like you know you might have some big waves come along for half an hour that slow the thing down but if it's gone from A to B it's not it's going to keep going from a bit that's right it's going to take a long time that thing around it takes miles or multiple kilometers to turn that thing around in a semicircle and that's a really good point because and that's often what happens near tops is you get those big Jagged moves in the share price so you don't always you often get a warning prior to the top or just after the top that this is coming which we saw that around the time of the GFC there was a big fall in the stock market beforehand and then it took off again making everybody think that it was going to go higher again and and then eventually it fell away and and it wasn't until most people didn't even realize that the market was going to keep falling until after it had done the kick back up and was on its well and truly on its way down but I mean because we're technical analysts we recognized that there was a high probability that the market was going to come up and then it was just going to plummet which it did and it did so this is the sort of stuff we're talking about is these signposts or things that are happening in the in the not the marketplace within the mood of the population and how do we how do we explain covert around this though that's the interesting thing for me is because with covert it was very different the charts even in the 87 crash just you had that exuberance going into the pig but then you still had a correction near the top there was some volatility near the top there were signs from a technical point of view that the market could fall maybe not as far as what it did but still that it was likely to move down further whereas with covert it was just literally like a sinker you just dropped it straight into the ocean so I understand that but then what you're looking at with covid it was an event driven crash what I mean is like let's say you are in a motive You could argue that the 87 crash was the same sort of thing yeah no not really it wasn't really an event driven crash GFC wasn't a vent driven crash it was a systemic type of thing it was an economic thing that happened to there but that's what came out eventually but not initially is what I'm saying so initially didn't start overnight no the GFC didn't but the 87 crash wasn't there wasn't that build up whereas with the GFC there was too young to remember that I'm just looking at the charts you were just starting High School when that happened I just look at the chat and I see I was in long pants at the time there was a big correct you don't even know I don't think you know the entire the dates um so if you look at the correction that happened prior to the GFC right there was all of that rumbling I think it was the CEO I think it was of NAB um at the time who came out though and there were no other Banks coming out and actually talking about this I just remember them being the first ones to come out so there was that real rip South in the market so a lot of selling off and that was when the people in the know were sort of thinking this could be the big one it rebounded people went thinking time High new all-time high now if you go back to the 87 crash we didn't have that big um sell-off right prior to the peak which when you look at a lot of stocks and some of the podcasts that were mothered in 29 it was that went up and then it just started tanking but the big day was part of the way down the moon but we've also alluded to in some of our recordings that that technology has played a big part since around that time of 87. because it is something fee drives things far faster and far deeper than what greed does yeah so that's affected the mood so kovid having a virus come out and saying we're all going to be shut down into lockdowns and blah blah and people are dying and etc etc so it goes oh my God we can't we're going to be locked down for a while etc etc that causes huge in that emotion yeah that emotion then caused the stock market to crash not the other way around the stock market didn't crash and then our emotions changed it was yeah there was the emotions went oh my God what's going to happen all you know businesses are shutting down they have to because not everybody's going to spread this disease faster than you know um and I wonder like if you think about the time that the market is fearful the mood and the market is fearful after say a GFC yeah it lasts a long time it can because it will change yeah and because that fear is still there for the few years but then eventually people forget so after a covert correction I wonder how long that fear lasts for because what happened it just bounced back up so strongly this lasted a couple of years didn't it well it did it that Mounds wasn't that was people I don't think it did but that bounce happened because people who didn't have jobs they were stuck at home because I wasn't allowed to go to work they were made they're on they weren't getting a paid because they were in um I've forgotten the word but the boss said well I don't know if you've got to you know you just go there and I can't pay you so you go home and they didn't know they're not going to get income so therefore there was a whole need the people go I'm at home I can't go out so what can I do to make money stock market and then you had all this advertising around all those actually like your Robin hoods and stuff like that people were going oh I can make 300 a day so you've got these younger generation just go boom straight onto the onto them but it was a different sort of mood altogether it was the GFC yeah so a completely different mood so I mean we can discuss that you know all day long can't we but anyway to me the the critical thing is the prevailing Trend largely depends on the mood or what we like to say the confidence of the masses at the time if the masses are confident the market is going to or the the Outlook is bright and sunny and everybody's going to be happy and everybody's got jobs and their employment's going to keep going and their wage is going to go they'll spend more money and drive the economy but if they're fearful of stuff but you see that sort of flies in the face of what you just said because people were fearful at the time a lot of people were but they'll fearful catching covered yeah but that was over that was actually over the top of the fear that you were mentioning before about were those businesses because there are a lot of businesses that had to shut the door correct for a period of time and nobody knew how long that was going to be and yet we had all that spending after correct which all end up in the stock market so the government's putting out all the spending into the stock market so anyway the prevailing Trend really largely depends on the on the mood or the confidence of the masses because markets all bounced didn't they you know because obviously all that spending came out and the government says this and there's a lot of uncertainty because we didn't know how long we're going to be on lockdown and we didn't really know how bad Kobe was going to be now as it turned out doesn't matter whether you know you were Pro this or anti this we're all lied to so it's like okay the mood is so strong right let's just think about this scenario when the rebound happened from covert the mood is still so strong yeah it was so the big powers that beer thinking okay we've got to pull this back so they start Rising interest rate right so there's interest rates bang let's hit them really hard because of the strength of that rebound indicated um the strength of that so that indicated the measures that had to come in afterwards inflation was a a direct outcome of all of that government spending but not just not just those people spending you're right it was all the pent up spending from before from before and the money because we were locked down we weren't spending as much so when we get out we spend a lot yeah so what a what an interesting strategy that was huge interesting so where does that take the mood now well we're going to tell you but Golden Rule of investing is always the investment trend is my friend you know trade with the trend and all of that sort of stuff so always go with the trend so how do you determine what the trend is right so forgetting what people think it is yeah have a look at this yeah so now we've got we've brought up if you as I said if you listen to a podcast you've got an Advan if you've got an advantage if you can see this you've got to understand as if you see it so if you are listening to the podcast you need to get onto YouTube go to wealth within TV and see what we're talking about now because I've done I've graphically or put a table together of the stuff from the book that I mentioned from Robert Proctor um or I've recreated it from the stuff in Robert fracture and he talks and there's there's um five columns one is area of culture and so those where he's got in their campus Trends don't read them all though just people I'm not going to pick a couple you know family life fashion Fitness um movies Okay blah blah blah okay sales First Column second column is is what he calls a rising transition now Rising transition is a is coming out of a low that's what we're seeing anything coming out of the markets coming out of a load then we've got the next one is Peak positive move what when what kind of period is that in the market market Peak yeah so it's them it's rising up into the peak they've got that bullish bullish blush market then we've got the next column bodybuilding Peaks is it like in Fitness it's bodybuilding I think I'm just looking there smoking junk food let's just stay focused here right okay we're still explaining the columns the fourth column is falling transition which is the four from a peak um and then we have the last column called Peak negative moves and what he's done is in all these different areas of culture that some you know I've only mentioned a couple like you know you've got politics pop up you know poetry those sorts of things so he's saying what's going on in these different types of moods in the marketplace and why is this important Janine well it's just to recognize the trends and things that are going on so it's science it's signs for you warning signs they give you warning signs so let's give you an example so the first one is let's we pick the area of culture called Dance okay so in that culture when we're in a rising transition what Robert practice research has done has said Partners dance together the tempo speeds up and part then and partners separate so that happens during the rising transition so you can read the next one so this is Peak positive mood Partners dance apart and there's a fast tempo so it depends so you go think about the Roaring 20s what kind of dancing was happening during the Roaring 20s and then what type of dancing was happening in the 30s or 40s you know in the 30s we had a recession in your depression environment sorry after the 29 crash or the Great Depression what was happening then but then we had the 50s rock and roll came out in the 60s and then what happened in the 80s and nobody knows what happened in the ladies anyway and the 70s are all stoned pretty much but so that was a topic positive who his Partners in the 80s you had happy pants or something happy pants yeah so in the 70s you had was it 780s you had some burnt orange rep coming rap was in the 80s I think something like that on the 90s early 90s in the falling transition has got Partners come back together Tempo slowed down a bit more cuddle time so why is that because the Market's Falling Away that's a good question isn't it well I'm asking you well I don't know maybe it's a couple dancing you don't have a good answer okay well I just think it's you know when people are more similarly subdued in their mood maybe upset maybe depressed because they've lost money you know they eat you know they do um how do I say self-deprecating things like so they wouldn't be dancing oh well they'd be they'd be coming on the couch they'd be relying on each other they'd be cuddling up and Tempo slow down and they'd be looking for love okay because they're not getting it out of the stock market right and the peak negative mood is the partners are together so that's so that's dance but again as I said if you're listening to this on a podcast just get onto YouTube and watch this week because you'll be able to read all that I know some people are going to be thinking what train are you on what Trader what am I thinking what are you smoking what the hell let's go for the next one so the next one is good versus evil I like this one it's pretty cool good versus evil so Rising transition you can just read this one bad guys versus Good Guys movies pro wrestling Heroes celebrated so remember you know you know wrestling programs and things like that they peaked at some stations I think that some saying so when did MMA come out yeah look at some of that sort of stuff in the peak positive mood everyone's a good guy yeah nobody's a bad guy polling transition you can say that one there are no bad guys and no good guys Heroes trashed now the interesting thing is that there's a movie out called Shazam which you haven't seen probably wouldn't won't no um but it's a DC film and it's actually got it's really light-hearted compared to DC which is generally dark yeah right so that's fitting with what you're saying so where's where he is saying that we're in a boom but every everybody else thinks that there's we're not in a boom and yet we're seeing those movies coming out yep and we'll give people the examples shortly on actually on the charts I will actually show you movies and music and everything that came out at certain times and when they came out and what the market was actually doing so the peak negative new mood this is we're still on Google so we're actually measuring the the peak mood Peak all the different moods of the movie makers really on the movie makers because movies are a reflection of how we're thinking of what's going on because Movie Makers want to make movies that people will watch and make money pretty quickly don't recoup their costs so they're making movies that fit the mood of the market at the time or are they why same with music because they want to sell it who's the chicken who's the egg here's the egg so in the negative mood everybody's a bad guy okay don't like being bad guys so now we're going to go to stock market that's when they turned Batman really really dark didn't they they did a few years back they turned in really really dark stock market popular valuation of productive Enterprise in the rising transition so the market is rising [Music] um then in the peak positive mood it's actually topping which is the topping part of the marketplace in a falling transition that's when it's peaked off the top and it's coming down and it's correcting so we know the first places it's actually correcting in a peak negative mood that's when it's bottoming so that's like to give you an example so when we talked about everybody's a bad guy that's the bottom that's when you know that this bottom if everybody's a bad guy so that's that will show you how to when you're looking at movies or music or in the media and whatever's going on around there you'll actually be able to say okay it's topping or yeah so in the news they don't have any good news stories it's all bad yeah we should have a good news story anyway and there's a lot of different topics on there that we're going through to pop music as I said we're talking about philosophy religion we're talking about politicians and Sport as well and even War when the wars happen so we talk about that as well so let's move on now this next chart I'm showing you anybody can get this for free off the Australian stock exchange and this is an older one this is the original one we did in the presentation which finished about 9 one year 10 years ago and it's Australian share price movements and if you Google that you go and put into Google Australian share price movements the latest one will come up on the ASX website but what it does is it actually shows this one goes right back like a hundred years nearly and it'll actually show you different Wars and different presidents or prime ministers whose labor liberal was in it'll tell you different things that might have happened during the history and it equates it to what's going on in the stock market so this is a free chart again it's called Australian share price movements on the ASX I'm going to show you that the current one on the as that I got off the ASX so this next one is the app that I can't 100 it's actually it's just not a log chart it's not a log chart and it doesn't it only goes back to the 80s but it shows you where the iPhone came out and when um Microsoft did something and all the different things so it shows you a whole lot of different events I actually don't like that one as much no I don't like it as much anyway but it's still good for people to see so again just Google Australian share price movements and you'll be able to pick that up and and have a really good look at it yourself but let's go back to our presentation oh I didn't do the right thing did I you got it yeah you were on the right there yeah going back to my our presentation so now I want to go back to that very first share price movement chart okay and I've just zoomed up a section of it and this section is from 1960 to 19.78 is that well no 1980.80 okay it's up to 1980. so we see when in the 60s we had a lot of growth we had the Beetles yeah some great Beach Boys yeah great 50s 60s 70s so we had that coming out and then darker music coming and then in the 70s we had Ozzy Osbourne Black Sabbath they fought Black Sabbath formed in 1960s he was very much a recessionary environment from 70 to 71 to 74. our Market was falling U.S market was falling it was very much more of a recession environment 1970 we had David Bowie who was that sort of different type of thing and then obviously punk rock came out in 76 different type of thing I don't think that's a good description well it was androgynous about is that a right word to say I would just say like it's just out there Ozzy Osbourne um yeah as well but Sex Pistols 1976 to 78 punk rock said vicious blah blah blah so that shows you what was happening in the movie The Market and what the market was doing so again you can have a look at these um if you do go to YouTube and said so now that I've clicked onto the next one now and this is it is again still from 1960 to 1980. we can see there that Woodstock was 1969 and there was three days and so you know we're talking the 60s and then Happy love 70s you know some of those little 70s there but that was the peak of the market yep so that sort of Woodstock was saying the peak of optimism there wasn't it then we've got Vietnam War so World recession 73 to 76 Vietnam war ends Saddam Hussein Kamaya Rouge and Soweto type things happening into that um President Nixon Watergate 1973. yep so what was happening all the bad guys coming out all the bad guys coming out so looking at all that now Moving On Again we're still 60s to 80s and this is a really good period of time to study this type of thing in the 1960s we saw we saw short skirts and Go-Go dancing in the 60s really happy 60s was a really growth period in the 70s as you said what did we say players long dresses and big hats yeah you know we had all that I still like big hats you still like big hats but flares Claire's look I don't mind flares actually these ever look good I think they look really not in jeans but if you've got some really beautiful pants and someone's got like a really short top oh that's just if it's you know summer can look absolutely magnificent with all the Fashions change between the 60s and 70s and the 70s and 80s now fashion in the 80s was bold and glitzy remember the 80s with all the Sparks yeah yeah and all that Michael Jackson yeah Michael Jackson and we got you know Madonna Michael Jackson that sort of stuff and then the 80s was another boomy period there so that's right these are things that you can look at and go oh okay and music is exactly the same as movies as other types of popular art you know pictures and things like that 1975 human rights packed packed signed in Helsinki you know we also had um well here's the thing 1974 I went to the movies with my mum and I saw these movies number 1974. airport 74 75 76 70 79 Jaws you know these are all these types of new thing movies you know things were going on and this is during a recessionary environment um 1977. what happened then Star Wars and E.T oh my goodness I still can't quite deal with Star Wars I didn't really know much about it until much later because my husband was a big fan of it but um he's picked it up somewhere along the line from who probably an uncle or someone who's tried to influence him that way I don't know yeah 1983 our Market started to take off and Flashdance came out in 1983 with those awesome leg warmers Lycra and leg warmers beautiful something like that but again as I said these charts is so you can go to YouTube and see what we're talking about here but we need to look at what's happening in the market in terms of music so what kind of music is happening now what kind of movies are coming out well that's a good question but I don't really know it's funny because I'm just so busy that I don't pay attention to not asking you I'm asking our viewers well looks do you know the answer to that you're asking them a question you're supposed to know the answer yourself well well that's true that is true but you know some of the most popular music right today I mean obviously we've had rap and all of those sorts of stuff we had periods of Death Metal and those sorts of things right now we're getting the most popular type of stuff we've got a bit of um you know a dowel is probably the most popular person in the world at the moment in terms of music but you do have other ones from that sort of stuff music you know movies what are we getting in times of music movies at the moment we're not getting a lot of super happy type of movies are we we're still getting Pete movies that you know a lot of drama do you think it's still the middle of the middle of that cycle hmm I don't think we're at that sort of peak of optimism and stuff like that at all I mean obviously you know obviously the Market's showing that we're not I know Adele when when you know I've got her concert and she talks about she doesn't do upbeat songs you know most of her stuff about breakups and things like that so and people love that sort of stuff and she and she's a great singer and have done an issue with that but um to me just looking at what the music is coming out I want the most funnies no because I was speaking to someone the other day who said she said I've stopped listening to all of that stuff that sort of stuff yeah why because I don't want to listen to fill my head with things that nobody's changing that's what happens if we get something more like that yep so we know how mood determines Market Cycles so how about we look more closely how mood translates into Market Cycles because we're saying what we're saying is people is the mood changes then the market yeah the mood's the most obvious at the turn before the turn where you get that big sell-off at the bottom yeah and the the exuberance or the Euphoria Rising into the peak so now what we're going to do is put those onto charts now as I said we're going to talk a bit about this uh just before I bring up some of the stock charts this is the best chart if you ever want to look at a chart about the market this is the best chart that you will ever look at not a stock and whether it's a buy right now this is going to explain everything I tell all of our students to print that up into A2 and put it above their computer and look at it anytime they're looking at a stock or the market to look at this because I call this the road map to them exactly it is your GPS and it's called Dao's theory of the market and you can Google this and get this anywhere I've just put douse theory of the market and you'll get this and basically has impulse and corrective phases of the market so impulse being bullish side um corrective phase is obviously the battery side and if there are three phases that you have on the bully side do you want to go through those yeah abandoned hope and phase two left-hand side polish phase that's a very phase Oh I thought you'd done that phase one renewed confidence just two you don't listen to me I know look I just had a huge lunch you know I'm still thinking about it thanks to improved earnings phase three rampant speculation and that's the bull side so phase one so we really know ways to improve earnings phase yeah all sorts of things that appear on the chart that you can recognize in those different phases and that's a beautiful thing about the market but the media tells us these things don't they so when we hear journalists talk about oh there's been renewed confidence in blah blah blah blah or they go oh there's stocks going and it's been speculated on its rent yeah well the best time of year is the earnings season to listen to and you hear this so the bear Market phases still there's three bullish phases and three bearish phases the bearish phases are one is abandonment of hope it's phase one then we get number two is decreased earnings so it rises less it rises less up um and then phase three because it's almost like the push is still trying to happen you know the push but it just dies so that's where you get it off because generally markets like unlike covid General markers don't generally crash straight down so that's why we along with all the other experts in the world expected the market to go up a little bit and then come down again but it didn't happen so abandonment hope is where everybody's bought after the you know rampant speculation there's been some selling and I go oh and then all of a sudden there's people come in to bring that back a little yeah I wonder given that situation you know why more people didn't sort of stand up and point the finger and say you know there was massive manipulation in the market and why did we allow people to walk away correct from that now we talk about this in great depth through our diploma course and things like that so I mean at the end of the day again if anybody just looks at a stock and I go well where is it well the market or where is it in terms of this Dallas theory of the market they can do that and I could defy an eight-year-old to do this yeah it's not you don't need to be a rocket scientist or have a degree in engineering to figure this thing out now again now let's putting on on a chart now this is a chart again this is the same chart we used nine years ago and it's in Market down or six somewhere like Optimus Market hours 10 I think roughly so that's how far along we've got but we've put Dallas faces on there for people to see what it looks like on a chart so do you want to take everybody through the chart yeah um this was really important I think to show people when we were going through this whole process because it wasn't just showing them you know the Dallas faces in the market this is a symbol of what the or the theoretic cool a picture of what it is this is more okay this is actually what happened and applying that over the top of the market so we can see at the start there um we start off really you've got to draw the line in the sand you know so after a correction if you can draw the line in the sand there then you it you know that's the best place to start major CR and you could do that after the um the Roaring 20s after the big correction then absolutely well after the 29 crash with the market the US market bottomed in 32 and I think we bought them in 33 or 31 like 31 I thought it was before 31 now what else did before I'm 31. so then we got we've got renewed conf at your our memories what it used to be renewed confidence coming out of that 87 crash so there's that sort of sideways choppiness that you expect to see tonight where the market tries to take off and it comes back again and then coming up from that we get much better Trends in the market it's much easier to trade improved earnings are happening we're seeing that through what was that 93 all the way through to about what through the late 90s and then we see the the Asia crisis happened there so we we had the initial yeah an initial warning of that which was pretty sharp and very volatile You could argue that it's similar with covert because it just came straight down yeah that was very short though yeah it was only a few days and then then a rebound because obviously people realized that there were some huge opportunities in there but then it wasn't it wasn't really it was short-lived the recovery a bit like what happened after covert and then we've seen a pullback occur from there and then there's this period of this real choppiness that happened after this improved earning so it's almost like the good news has come out the mood's still trying to push the market higher but it's really not advancing significantly it's just it's taking off it's coming back but those sort of movements were really great for trading as you can see but perhaps not as great as when you first come out of these lows and again after the pullback that we saw in 2003 then some incredible opportunities to trade the market which we will get these sort of opportunities again people have to just be patient and then right up and then we started the other side of the thing so the rampant speculation yeah but it's about it's about separating yourself from what's actually happening and and the more you've been doing this the more you'll more easily this will come to you that you'll be able to recognize these this activity in the market and step back from us we've done a lot of recordings on that part of that ramp and speculation where we've said to people when there were record levels of margin letting a record level our Tuesday night show as well we've done the record levels of people going into manage funds they'll record levels of people borrowing money off their housing and putting it into the stock market so when you're seeing that that is rampant speculation and that's the big signpost that the top is coming soon yeah not necessarily it has hit but then the opposite happens we once the GFC Peak happened we started the fall we got that initial fall which is your abandoned hope then you've got a rebound of that that you did mention before then we got the announcement started coming out you know decreased earnings you know that sort of stuff and then eventually distress selling then we've got record levels of people having margin calls and you know going bankrupt all that sort of stuff happening so a lot of signposts but you know then we go back into a new confidence which as you said earlier as people slowly change their mood over a period of time which you know then it's we'll start to get into some bad news about companies having bad reports bad you know losing money bad profit reports all that sort of stuff eventually that stops happening and when that stops happening that's the changing in the mood then and then the mood starts to pick up from there but it's a really great chart as I said it doesn't need updating it tells you everything that you need to know that sort of stuff so let's move on we've got another chart here this again this is the all audience index and this is from 87. um somewhere around about it comes around from 87 right through to 2009 we're showing how sickly called the market is and how I won't go into explaining this but it shows you how regular the market is between low to high to low to high to low to low so you get to get onto YouTube and have a good look at this so you can see that our Market is very predictable if you understand what you're doing and still got some good information on it but let's keep moving on I won't explain that too much but what we see is and what we're putting on at the moment on that chart is sort of things that happen emulate in relation to the mood of that market that might cause the cyclical nature or that repeatability of our Marketplace so all the things we talked about earlier was you know the dresses and music and movies now out of the 87 crash we had a nice strong move up out of 87 into 88 into 89 but then what happened you're just looking at it no I'm just um are you going to read it I'm just waiting for you to keep going ah why do I have to do all the work myself on this one yep cool well then what happened is a week before and sort of 89 88 89 then we had the pyramid big pyramid collapse in Geelong which caused Geelong to shut down uh Bond Corp collapses so that was Alan Bond and that sort of stuff the big Bond called you know we had I think I think it's like ariadne and um Poseidon and all that sort of stuff I think that might have been around there might have been before that I can't remember but the Gulf War started um and when we had Paul Keady telling us we had the recession we had to have wasn't that exciting so if we can move on from that then we see 19 roughly 1994 X roughly then we've had tax cuts in the USA the European Community uh the currency terminal the gold price was up the Australian government had a lot of asset sales and that was another peak of the marketplace then we move on to the next sort of peak sort of 1997-ish which is what you mentioned the Asian prices or the Asian currency crisis we had Australian agricultural commodity prices they dropped out of bed that was a short but that was another Market Peak and then we move on to April 2000 which we talked a bit about and we've talked about numerous times is the tech wreck in April 2000 we had a this speculative boom in tech stocks and then the techcrack but we also had 2001 we had the 911 track crash we had hia Insurance crash we had the Bali bombing and then the second Iraqi War happened and there's another peak of our Marketplace there so it's interesting about these economic things that happened and then obviously the GFC subprime crisis happened in 2007 so we've actually put these things on top of a chart of the Allure news index just to show you what was going on in our economy at the time of all these Peaks so being aware means you can make decisions don't you so let's move on so this is interesting well it is so I mean right now we've got to talk about what I want to ask you what is your view of society's mood and the economic and political conditions today and I'm not necessarily asking you Jenny I'm asking people listening to say what's your view of this society's means what is the mood of the market what do you see from people in businesses your friends your family War to the mood what are they thinking what's are they in a positive move in are they an euphoric type of mood do they think things are gonna you know or are they in a doom and God so an answer because you've asked me not to necessary listeners but I went into a cafe the other day and it was packed you're gonna tell me anyway I'm just going to give you a clue and it was really packed so there were just so many people in there and I said oh how's business going at the moment they said oh flat out and I thought okay great that's telling me a lot it is telling me but I was I think I remember taking this on one of our recordings around Christmas time you know I was in David Jones and Myers we went to see the Maya window here in Melbourne into David Jones and I was just gobsmacked and people there were people around but nobody had shopping bags a normal Christmas time you say are these people with bags they've already done it had they but it didn't surprise me that you know retail sales are down a little bit so but but is but that shows you if you're out shopping and there's a lot of people out there shopping and they've got lots of gear you know lots of bags and everything that means people are spending but if that's not there then they're not spending and why aren't they spending are they fearful and we're seeing a lot of things talk about now about mortgage stress you know we have people going but it's the same 50 more for my mortgage they do all the time and then it's the same thing as when we're coming into election they bring the same issues up over and over again it's just a different phase that appears on the screen different person yeah exactly yeah totally agree totally agree and it's I think we need better politicians so what phase do we think the Market's imagining you want to answer that one oh I have to tell them so are we in the bullish phase or the bearish phase so are we in renewed confidence no I think so are we in rampant speculation no we're not up to that I don't think we've seen some improved earnings along the way but it's just we're in a little bit of um a limbo I think we've done the the you know I think we're in the middle phase of that down phase is the market on that bullish size I don't we're not at the end yeah so we're not about to crash we're not at the beginning definitely I think we're in that middle phase of Dow phases of the market so and we're just waiting at the moment we're in a little bit of limbo as you said and I think we're just waiting for a bit more better news to come out that sort of stuff but I think the mood is changing you know and things will get kicking on again so that's what I think we're at but I could be wrong look think about this for a minute during covert who planned holidays and when who planned holidays so you said there was covert right nobody wanted to go anywhere come out of covert what were people talking about escaping but how many did well a lot of people did um but did a lot of people go overseas though well you saw a lot of people booking holidays but I don't know whether they went overseas but I know no reports were chocolate let's just use that as a measure of people's mood so when the mood is you know great or heightened people are spending money on all sorts of holidays they're doing lots of stuff buying new cars but some of that stuff we certainly do because obviously sometimes but now right what is the mood what is the mood in relation to those people spending money on big trips I think it's subdued at the moment because they're not doing it because when when did people plan to spend that money okay is that a trick question think about it you yourself said John Mary I'll be back I asked you last year I said when are you going away and you said oh maybe 2023 but more than likely 2024. well I I was supposed to go away 20 20 21 2022 overseas that's right obviously 2020 all my plans that we booked got canceled um so we got our refunds and whatever else and then 2021 I was going to the US that didn't happen because we kept getting locked down we had more lockdowns in the jail I'm here in Melbourne and then 2022 we had less lockdowns but still more lockdown so it wasn't until sort of mid last year or sort of august-ish forget about that it's just like well now I'm thinking so what I'm saying I'm saying is once it once that starts to really kick in again we've seen airports absolutely chock-a-block at Christmas time but there's still some pretty good deals with some travel deals and now we're seeing that yeah apparently they're a good deal they'll they'll do anything to get people to part with their money so what you're saying is people travel domestically the last year or so I'm saying that yep we've seen that and this could be sort of like after the Wake if you like and then if there were so many people that I remember hearing even on TV shows news and stuff they were talking about that they're planning holidays and they're just going to let it go maybe to sort of second half 2023 2024. maybe somebody gives me a good deal I'm gone tomorrow and you're you're left with the baby here you're doing all the podcasts so what I'm saying to you is that you're talking about the phase we're in now and matching it up with what you're saying it fits perfectly it does and you know I just read in the newspaper today the opening two rounds of the Australian football season has had record attendances there you go um we saw Ed Sheeran here in the last month or two with concerts had record levels of people and what sort of music is 200 000 people at two two what sort of music is Ed Sheeran Ed Sheeran is it's a bit more upbeat it's it's um it's not jump up and out of your seat sort of thing but a lot of people do but it's not you know it's I wouldn't say it's like you know going to a Kiss concert you know what I mean but it's a great it's uplifting type of music so yeah some of his songs are really really it's about shits with you know what you're talking about we had Billy Joel here in in December which I went and saw which is amazing you know it was just a real upbeat lifting concert the music's come out for the young people I just listen to Young People you're asking the wrong person so I tended you know like I'd listen to Young I go okay that's interesting that's about it you know but we're not getting we're not getting all that death metal and stuff like that anymore I don't think we're getting much of that but we're good it'll still be there but there is some really nice new artists because it's just not in the Forefront yeah like you got pink coming out soon you know she's brilliant yeah you know those sorts of people are coming and doing concerts again that's and to me that show in the mood of the market people are still a bit upbeat they're not that's right Doom and Gloom so I think you know that's where I think we're in that phase of the market I think so we've got the best part yet to come this is what you said we've got the best part yet to come on we just got out of this little bit of a hurdle but I want to try and encourage people to stay positive and there's what I was talking about a bit earlier about well you don't need to tell them because it's going to happen anyway well it is going to happen anyway but no nothing positive came out of a negative mind and so we have a responsibility for ourselves to manage your own mood and like you said this person doesn't you know watch these things anymore you know to me it's garbage in garbage out yeah so don't listen to negative stuff don't watch negative stuff we've got this music that's sort of uplifting yeah we've got the cut the undertone in the media which is saying is a lot of Doom and Gloom no that's just lazy journalism because they just follow police and ambulances all the time and then just report whatever's happened there so to me that's not necessarily great journalism but to me it's like would you rather having but in these times but in these times you can still have this negativity trying to pull people down and that's why people just stay on talking pushing people up people should be listening and watching talkingwell.com but get onto talkingwell.com I mean it's like was it 3.50 something a week listen to all these amazing people so many amazing people positive people people with an abundance mindset people with the success mindset people who are motivational inspirational with great stories great information great education great um research and facts because if you keep feeding yourself positive stuff and putting yourself in a mood that is an abundant move that you know like I'm remember somebody the other week of saying to me oh you know blah blah blah blah you know you know everything's Doom and Gloom and there's not any money around the world and I won't need it really yeah I said maybe you're looking trillions of dollars running past my face every day on the sidelines there is well not just that but there's so much opportunity and you know this person said no there's no you know you know my job no I'm not getting pay rise I said give yourself a pay rise and I went how do you do that I said there's so many things you can do to make money from home yeah on your backside know why do you do that and I went well start thinking about it think of possibilities think about what you could do because and I remember chatting to a journalist only last week and he said I was talking about interest rates and the people with mortgage press and how we need to change our messaging to gen Z because you know my generation is telling him it's all hard you can't buy your own house it's you know you're struggling you're going to struggle to buy a house you're going to struggle when you've got a house and and he said oh yeah it's like that isn't it and I said you know do you worry about your mortgage and he goes pretty much every day and I said I've never had one day my whole life that I've ever worried about paying my mortgage yeah same with me and he goes really I said yeah correct because I always have a positive mood and I have an abundant mood and I always make sure that I'm set up that I don't get put myself into those situations and so do you but that's what the difference is between successful people and ones that aren't successful people that's purely the difference between people who are willing to invest and not or successful people learn and they continually learn that's all we've talked about is they keep they buy more books because if you if you if you're a fearful like that you won't invest you don't you regress and you you shrink because to me it's if you're not going forward you're going backwards there's no such thing as standing still people are walking past you and it's your choice whether you do that and that's about understanding your mood and making sure things that can be done I mean absolutely I think I've talked before about that book that I read years and years ago I think it was in my 20s and it was this guy that came to Australia that he um he came from Europe and he looked at the opportunity in this country to be able to purchase property so he very early on started squirreling money away until he could get to the point where he could borrow some and buy a house and he ended up accumulating a number of houses and when the crunch came he wasn't really prepared for it but he knew what he could do like people around him were telling him that no that's ridiculous you need to give it away but he did he just decided to take Massive Action and did whatever he could do to fulfill his goals and he he was ended up being a multi-millionaire out of it because he stuck to that no matter where he started but he started off very small didn't have any money when they came there's so many stories like that you know my story is you know starting from nothing you know a lot of people's stories are starting and I don't share that to get sympathy from anybody this is my mood hasn't always been I need I I had my mood as an abundant mood it's not a scarcity mood if you think if you always talk about money then you think there's never enough and if you keep keep thinking there's never enough there never will be enough for you so what's the mood just is the mood around that person just money or do you think that there's a a sort of a sort of a systemic thing now that there's this mood around money I think there's a bit of both I think there's a bit of both there's a lot of stuff about especially what you know the Baby Boomers are talking about you know to the young people you know about it's hard blah blah and if you even watch the TV they talk about you know how to save money on you know your electricity bill on your phone I guess they do because they've been saying I can't imagine what it's going to be like for young people correct and to me that's disgusting yeah you know teach young people how to do things teach people how to find ways of making money or do better you know but we're not and that's yeah they've got a lot more tools at their disposal now and what they've got more information more tools and everything else but we put we our generation and I'm not saying you or me but I talk about the people of my generation people over 50 or 45 or 50 are still dumping crap into young people which it's based on their beliefs and their systems and we've and they've proven that doesn't work you know if you have a success mindset an abundant mindset and a mindset that says well it doesn't matter what challenges I face because the people that succeed are the ones that have failed the most and they get up and do it one more time yeah and they're the ones the success saw people the ones that continue to learn continue reading books chemical learning things and that's why I don't get why so many people who want success in the share market can't even spend two grand to do our trading Mentor course where they get every single email answered by May and I do those recordings for people and any one of them can make them more than the money of the actual cause but people go oh it's expensive well they're the people who have the challenge with money thinking just scarcity not abundance it's interesting isn't it because when if the mood changes and then the stock market is the thermometer measuring the temperature and you think about those people and their mood like you know everybody's going to be on slightly different wavelengths if you know what I'm saying yeah so if those people because of their beliefs are on a slightly different wavelength but they must their mood must be moving to more positive when the overall mood's moving to more positives but don't wait that's what I'm saying what you're saying is it moves late those people are the late moves right moving to the stock market right near the top the 10 like us us are the people that set their own mood and set their own agenda yeah and that's why we're always yeah there's more the stock market is not determining when we start is that what you're saying Market doesn't determine when we start we start when we want to start but the majority of the masses move together and the masses are generally wrong or get it wrong um and that's historically shown that okay time and time again so that's all I'm saying is is if somebody listening or watching us is saying to us or saying to themselves sorry or the person in the mirror in the morning who's brushing their hair or having a shave it they're going hmm I wish I or wish I could or you know otherwise can if you're saying those things to yourself I'd like more money I want to pay rise or like that you know better house better car holidays whatever the thing is for you or send my kids to private school you can do that it's just about looking at your mood right now and adjusting your mood and yeah you know I remember years ago of I forget as a Zig Ziglar book he said you need a checkup from the neck up and it's so right you know give yourself a checkup from the neck up and change your mood to one of abundance and one that you can get what you want because it doesn't matter what's happening in the economy and I over my decades and Decades of being on this planet I've never been affected by one recession or one interest rate rise or anything I've just kept going yeah perhaps yeah they slow me down and oh I speed up but the thing is it doesn't stop me at all and I don't get affected by that and as you said and I said I've never worried about interest on my mortgage ever you know I've never worried about making a mortgage impairment ever and that's a nice place to be into that is great you know and I think anybody can be in that space if they have a right mood and set the right processes in place but I agree I think we better finish up this podcast for everybody but if you do um you know get onto YouTube and you can watch the the actual recording of this because you'll be able to see the charts and everything we talked about so just go to YouTube Type in talking about TV and watch it give us a big thumbs up and a like and comment us saying hey great love you love your video share with your friends we'd love to do that if you are listening to us on a podcast give us a five star rating and a review on iTunes or whatever platform that you're looking at and if you are looking and thinking about you know what you can do with the share market please head to our website wealthwithin.com.edu click on the education tab tab and look at our education and just talk to one of our team because they will help you understand what is best for you and if it is it is and if it's not it's not that's okay but have a good look at it first anyway before you make that decision um we might just like to get my books so they're available on the website as well but anyway that's it for talking well I'm Dale Gill I'm the chief analyst here at Welton and I'm here with Janine Cox our senior analyst and we do hope you like our podcast but for now goodbye good luck and good Trading [Music] thank you [Music]

Channel: Wealth Within

Views: 1,943

Keywords: why do stocks go up and down, what makes stock prices move up and down, stock market, what influences the stock market, what moves the stock market, what moves the stock market up and down, australian stock market, dale gillham, janine cox, wealth within, wealth within tv, wealth within live, australian stock market show, stocks, stock price movements, understanding stock prices, stock price action

Id: IwEQZOWR3_M

Length: 67min 8sec (4028 seconds)

Published: Mon Apr 10 2023