A Cold War between the United States and Germany,
a Nazi flag on the moon, and an American pacific empire? This is some of the weirdest consequences
of the United States staying out of World War II. By 1940, Europe and East
Asia were aflame with war. Germany had launched its brutal assault against
France, taking the country in mere weeks. A complete military disaster was only narrowly
avoided thanks to the incredible efforts of the British in the Dunkirk evacuation- though Hitler's
own incompetence played a large role in that too. With allied forces pinned against the sea, Hitler
inexplicably ordered his Panzers to stand down, relying on the air force to mop up the
survivors and thus allowing their escape. But the allies had lost their foothold in
Europe, and Britain was increasingly looking like the next target for Nazi invasion. Surviving
World War I German veterans beamed with pride at their conquest of Europe, even as Hitler turned
his hungry eyes east towards the Soviet Union. In Asia, Japan had launched a
brutal war against China. The small island nation desperately needed the
manpower and raw natural resources of China to fuel its dreams of empire, and with
complete military superiority had led a devastating attack against the splintered
forces of the nationalist Kuomintang and the Communists. They used chemical weapons with
impunity, knowing the unsophisticated Chinese couldn't hope to respond with their own while they
slaughtered civilians and POWs by the thousands. Despite a world in the grip of the
most violent conflict of human history, the United States teetered on the brink of
neutrality. Its citizens remembered all too well the brutality of World War I, and the
hundreds of thousands who had returned home with horrible wounds or not at all. The conflicts
'over there' were a European and Asian affair, and had nothing to do with the United States. The hope to ensure peace between all mankind
through the League of Nations had failed, and now Americans were more disillusioned than ever with
the world. Why should they have to go fight other countries’ wars, when they could simply remain at
home safe and secure thanks to two big oceans and one of the best navies in the world. For Americans
suffering through the Great Depression, there were simply bigger problems at home- everyone
else would have to solve their own this time. Isolationists in the US believed that the ongoing
conflicts in Europe and Asia were the concerns of the nations involved, and had nothing to do with
the United States. Europe loved starting wars with itself, hosting a new major war every twenty
years or so- why would this be any different? The conquest of East Asia by the Japanese
was unfortunate for those involved, but America and the rest of the western powers
had themselves long exploited the Chinese. In the minds of isolationists, the US should simply
build up its military and remain neutral, working to ensure that no navy could
challenge America in the Pacific or Atlantic. The America First Committee and similar
organizations all preached a message of isolationism and political neutrality,
influencing the public through radio, print advertisements, and big rallies in
large cities. Celebrities of the day such as Charles Lindberg and popular radio priest
Father Charles Coughlin spread the message of isolationism. Lindberg even lashed out at
President Roosevelt, who publicly claimed that the Nazis were a threat to democracy everywhere.
Lindberg would go on to say, “These wars in Europe are not wars in which our civilization is
defending itself against some Asiatic intruder…” This is not a question of banding together to
defend the white race against foreign invasion”. Turns out Lindbergh was a white supremacist who
also claimed that “racial strength is vital”. He even wrote a Readers Digest article stating that
“...our civilization depends on a Western wall of race and arms which can hold back...
the infiltration of inferior blood.” The America First Committee liked what it
heard from Lindbergh and soon its leader, Robert E. Wood, head of Sears Roebuck,
invited Lindbergh to join the group and preach the good news about white supremacy
and isolationism across the country. However, the Isolationist movement began to
stumble thanks to Lindbergh himself. His previous glory and fame for feats in aviation had already
tarnished significantly due to his blatant racism, but in a speech in Des Moines, Lindbergh
announced it was time to “name names”. According to Lindbergh, “The three most important groups
who have been pressing this country toward war are the British, the Jewish, and the Roosevelt
Administration.” Pressed on the matter, Lindbergh claimed that the Jews of all people
should be fighting the hardest against war, as in his eyes they would suffer the most. He
then denounced the infiltration of the press, film industry, radio and government by Jews. Lindbergh
was immediately denounced as an anti-Semite. Interventionists meanwhile preached
their own gospel: the US didn't just have a moral obligation to stand against
Hitler, but a national defense obligation. If the democracies of West Europe fell to
Hitler, then this critical line of defense against a powerful Germany would also fall and
leave the US alone to face it in some future conflict. If France and Britain fell, Hitler
would be in control of much of the world's oceans and the vast resources of the rest of the
planet, as none would be able to oppose him. President Roosevelt described the situation
as “living at the point of a gun”. Most interventionists believed that
direct US involvement was inevitable, but others called for a relaxation of the
Neutrality Acts so that the US could instead equip the western powers with weapons and not have
to do the fighting itself. William Allen White, chariman of the interventionist organization
Committee to Defend America by Aiding the Allies, claimed that the best way to keep the
US out of the war was to arm Britain. American opinion however was swiftly changing.
In January of 1940, a public opinion poll showed that 88% of Americans opposed declaring
war against the Axis powers. In June, only 35% of Americans believed they should even risk war
by providing direct assistance to the allies. However, France fell quickly after that
and Britain came under all-out air assault, as the Royal Air Force heroically fought the
superior German Luftwaffe off. As the Battle for Britain began, 52% of Americans now believed the
US should risk war by aiding England, but as it became clear Britain was holding off the Germans
from invading, public opinion swung even more in favor of joining the war. By April of 1941 68% of
Americans favored going to war against the Axis. On December 7th, 1941, the debate over America's
entry into World War II ended. Congress declared war on Imperial Japan with a nearly unanimous
vote- only Montana's Jeannette Rankin, a pacifist and the first woman elected to
Congress, voted against the war. Germany and Italy soon declared war against America,
and history as we know it fell into place. But what if America had stayed out? The best way to tackle this question is to
post two different scenarios at the same time. In one scenario, the Isolationists win
the battle of public opinion and the US remains completely neutral- this means no
military assistance to Britain as well as no entry into the war. In the second scenario,
the US continues providing assistance to Britain and Russia but doesn't join the
fighting itself- similar to how the United States is handling the
Russian invasion of Ukraine today. In the first scenario, Germany's forces
tighten the noose around Britain, cutting it off from the overseas colonies shipping
badly needed war goods to the island nation. Though Britain had the superior navy, the
German navy made great use of U-boats to intercept British shipping. With shipyards in
France and Norway under German control, and the vast resources of mainland Europe largely under
its command, Germany is able to slowly outgun the British navy, as the Royal navy finds it more
and more difficult to replenish combat losses. In the skies, the same scenario repeats itself. A
big part of the reason that the British air force was able to fend off the Luftwaffe is because
it was receiving steady resupply from America, but forced to fight on its own means, the RAF
slowly but surely begins to run out of oil, rubber for plane tires, and even ammunition. Eventually
it too is unable to replenish losses fast enough to keep up with the Luftwaffe, and by the end of
1941, if not sooner, Britain's air forces are all but defeated. Surviving planes are kept in reserve
to respond to beachheads during a German invasion. With the Royal Navy similarly attritioned,
Operation Sea Lion is at last realistically possible- and the fact that the British
Isles are now a realistic military objective leads Hitler to not launch an
invasion of the Soviet Union. At least not yet. Early in 1942 at the latest,
German forces make landfall on Britain, and Britain begins a desperate, but
ultimately losing war of survival. But what if the US had stayed out of the war, but
continued to provide critical supplies to Britain? This phase of the war would have remained
largely the same, though losses in manpower are harder for Britain to replenish than war
materials. Ultimately an invasion of the British homelands is delayed, but not indefinitely,
and an invasion by 1943 is very likely. Hitler does run the risk of bringing the
United States into the war regardless, but he may have taken a cue from history
and learnt from Germany's past mistake. This would mean that he wouldn’t aprove
the unrestricted submarine warfare that pushed the US into joining World War I. Instead
Hitler shows patience as his air force and navy slowly but surely reduce
Britain's available manpower. In the end, Hitler still invades
Britain, and without US forces to help, the island nation falls. In Africa, Hitler's superior forces cut the
British off from middle eastern oil early in the war. Without US reinforcements, Britain is forced
to stand alone against Rommel's desert armies, to disastrous effect. While they put up a spirited
defense, inevitably superior German resources trump British resistance, and now Germany is
left with its hand on the global oil supply. This causes a great deal of concern within the United
States- but the US can be self-sufficient if it needs to be thanks to its own vast oil reserves.
However, Hitler is now the most politically powerful leader in history thanks to his ability
to control the flow of Middle Eastern oil. This victory ensures that the German war
machine can run unopposed indefinitely, completely overwhelming any would-be adversary. In Eastern Europe, Hitler eventually breaks
his cooperation pact with Stalin- but at a later date than happened on our timeline. This
is due to his need to mop up British resistance on the home islands, but with Prince Edward as
a puppet monarch on the British throne, Hitler effectively controls most of Britain a year after
the invasion. He can now divert the bulk of his military to the eastern theater in anticipation
of a massive assault against the Soviet Union. What happens next depends on if
the United States remained neutral, or simply refused to join the war. If the US remains neutral, then it
never sends vast amounts of military and humanitarian aid to the Soviet Union as
Germany begins Operation Barbarossa. America's assistance to the Soviets is an often overlooked
factor in determining what would have happened if the US never entered the war. The United
States was in fact one of the main reasons the Soviets were able to mount an effective
resistance to the invasion in the first place, as the US sent a whopping $180 billion in today's
money to the USSR over a period of 4 years. By comparison, the US has so far pledged only about
$15 billion in total assistance to Ukraine today. The aid the US provided included 400,000 jeeps
and trucks, 14,000 airplanes, 8,000 tractors, 13,000 tanks, 1.5 million blankets, 15 million
pairs of army boots, 107,000 tons of cotton, 2.7 million tons of petrol products, and 4.5 million
tons of food. At one point nearly every truck the Soviets operated was American, and nearly every
Soviet soldier was clothed thanks to America. Without this significant amount of aid, even
vast Soviet industrial might would not be able to stand against Germany's onslaught for long -
specially if forces left to fend off an allied assault from Britain were no longer necessary due
to the island's pacification. Stalin's military, atrophied by his vast political purges,
absolutely crumples in the face of German assault, and both its soldiers and population
starve without American aid shipments. Without hundreds of thousands of American trucks
and vehicles, the Soviet war machine has to rely on horse-drawn carts and marching on foot, while
German mechanized forces outrun and outmaneuver ever-retreating Soviet armies. Eastern Europe
turns into a bloodbath for the communists, and within months Moscow has fallen and Stalin
and his government fled to the far east. Germany does not pursue- as there is no
need. It has taken exactly what it wanted from the Soviet Union, the fertile and resource
rich southwest of the nation. The Soviet Union continues to exist as a puppet state, but things
get worse for them because due to the crushing defeat in Eastern Europe, Japan reignites the
Russo-Japanese War and takes vast swathes of Russian held territory in the far east for
itself. After another year of fighting, Russia no longer has a presence in Asia and Japan
is left in complete control of the continent. If America continued to supply the Soviets,
the fighting would have dragged on for far longer- but defeat was inevitable. With no need
to secure France against invasion, Germany can free up hundreds of thousands of troops to throw
into the meat grinder that is Eastern Europe. Eventually, the result is the same, and both
Japan and Germany push the Soviets out of their respective sphere of power and reduce the USSR to
client-state status. Stalin vows never-ending war, but he is hunted down by German assassins and a
fascist Russian ruler is installed by the Germans. In Asia though, our what if
scenario gets even more interesting. Japan's attack on the United States is what
precipitated the nation joining World War II, but if the United States had remained truly
neutral, Japan may not have attacked at all. The attack on Pearl Harbor was premeditated
by the United States stopping shipments of oil and rubber to Japan, seriously harming
its plans for Asian conquest. Japan now had only a few months worth of supply, which
necessitated war against the United States and the seizing of oil-rich European colonies
in the south Pacific. But if the United States had remained completely neutral, there's a
chance war would have been averted- for now. With the US still supplying Japan with oil,
rubber, and other heavy industry resources, Japan is free to continue consolidating
its gains in China. Within a few years, most of China becomes Japan's manufacturing base, skyrocketing the power of the Pacific empire.
This allows them to push Russian forces out of the region completely, and begin the systematic
conquest of the remaining, smaller Asian nations. But the Philippines and other small holdings
in South East Asia remain under US control. Australia becomes the perfect base of operations
to counter Japan's growing power in Asia. In order to prevent Japanese hegemony
in the South Pacific, the United States moves significant forces to Australia, Guam,
and the Philippines, drawing a red line in the sand to Japanese expansionism. This is
a situation the Japanese can ill abide, as it places US forces within striking
range of the most vital trade arteries for the Japanese empire, and makes it possible
for the US Navy to slowly choke Japan to death. Inevitably, war between Japan and the United
States breaks out. During World War II, the US had a “Europe First” policy, and sent
the bulk of its combat power to europe. However, in this alternate timeline America is free to
use the bulk of its military against Japan. With Europe falling to the Germans, the US
has pulled itself out of the Great Depression thanks to the largest re-armament effort
in human history, dwarfing even that of the Germans prior to the Second World War. Japan
meanwhile has not had the time to set up much needed industry infrastructure in China,
or hold onto it against Chinese partisans. The US absolutely dwarfs Japan's military in
the Pacific, and Japan is left with no choice but to call for help from its European ally:
Germany. Now, Hitler faces a tough choice. He can declare war against America to relieve
pressure on Japan, but it'll be years before his forces can do much to actually threaten the
US. Building a navy capable of crossing the Atlantic and delivering troops to North America
takes time, and Hitler has plenty of reasons to not bother as he sets about building his glorious
Third Reich. Further, thanks to Hitler's paranoia, he has split up the scientists working
on a nuclear bomb amongst several, independent laboratories, severely slowing
down Nazi Germany's nuclear weapons program. With most of Europe's intellectuals taking refuge
in America, the United States now has the greatest concentration of engineers and scientists in
the world, and has already produced several nuclear bombs and is well on its way to building
planes capable of reaching Europe from America. Hitler can instead opt to break his alliance
with Japan and declare a cooperation pact with the United States instead. This will give
Germany time to rebuild from its war of conquests and consolidate its hold over
Europe and the Middle East. Racially motivated, Hitler has
more in common with white Americans than with the Japanese anyways, whom he sees
as intrinsically inferior on the genetic level. If America has remained truly neutral up to this
point, it's possible that such a cooperation pact does in fact take place. Such neutrality would
have necessitated that President Roosevelt not win re-election, and instead a much more
isolationist and pro-German president take his place. In this timeline, Germany has no
reason to be in competition with America, and instead as trade relations open up in
the post war environment, the two might become fast friends. This frees up the US to
crush the Japanese empire in the Pacific war, and ultimately declare hegemony over East Asia.
The world is now ruled by two equal military powers- the German Third Reich in Europe and the
Middle East, and the United States of America in the western hemisphere and east Asia. The two
sides are ideologically opposed, fascism vs democracy, but after their respective costly
wars have little reason to fight each other. Plus, simple logistics make such a
war unlikely- one side or the other would have to ultimately cross the Atlantic
and land troops on the other's territory, an impossible proposition without
nearby staging points for an invasion. Hitler's racial purges drive millions
of refugees into the Western Hemisphere, and the best and brightest amongst them
bolster the American economy and industry. The United States quickly becomes the 'brains'
of the world, and in the decades that come its scientific, industrial, and military
edge over Nazi Germany grows exponentially. Meanwhile, Hitler's racially pure Third Reich
stagnates from a lack of diversity and innovation. His fascist, oppressive rule has caused
the world's best artists, engineers, and scientists to flee for the democratic
USA. The brain drain cripples the Third Reich's ability to compete internationally
against the growing might of America, leaving an aging Hitler with only one choice
if he wishes to ever topple the threat that a much more powerful United States of America
now poses: complete and total nuclear war. Now go check out What If World War 2 Never
Happened, or click this other video instead!
