What if Smaug Survived? | Tolkien Theory

when the dragon smog dies in 2941 the effects reverberate throughout all of middle earth drastically changing the balance of power in the north today i've put my regular research into action to answer the question what if smog survived while some would say the most logical point of deviation would be the moment bard kills smaug with the black arrow tolkien's own writings point to an earlier moment in the story with far reaching implications it is the spring of 2941 of the third age and gandalf is approaching brie on his way to the shire he's going to the shire for a brief respite after not having visited in 20 years his mind is burdened primarily with the presence of sauron in dulgaldur a secondary concern is the dragon smaug in whom gandalf fears sauron may find an ally in the actual story gandalf meets thorin oakenshield on the road to bri where they meet and discuss the state of things including the dragon here is our moment of deviation in today's scenario gandalf and thorin by being off by even just a day or two don't meet near brie what is the impact of this in short it is very great after the events of the return of the king gandalf tells the surviving fellowship that the north of middle earth would be ruin and ash but it was averted all because he met thorin oakenshield one evening not far from brie in the canon story gandalf is able to convince thorne of the futility of open war as is stated in unfinished tales your own ideas are those of a king thor an oak and shield but your kingdom is gone if it is to be restored which i doubt it must be from small beginnings far away here i wonder if you fully realize the strength of a great dragon but that is not all there is a shadow growing fast in the world far more terrible they will help one another for thorin he makes his way back to the blue mountains where with no gandalf to convince him otherwise he moves forward with the plans he already has in mind plans for battle and war gandalf continues to the shire still in possession of the map and key to erebor in the canon story it's only after his meeting with thorin that gandalf realizes who the raving dwarf was that gave these items to him so in this scenario he has no idea how significant these items are or that it was king thrain himself who gave them to him while gandalf is concerned with the threat of smaug he knows by now that the necromancer in douglador is sauron the re-emergence of the dark lord is the priority so after a time of brief rest in the shire as intended he makes his way east in order to go through with his plan of convincing the white council to attack dolgodur months later in september 2941 dolgodur is attacked by the white council gandalf having convinced the council to act on the necromancer as for thorin he is still making battle plans as we have seen over and over again in our videos on battles and wars of middle earth most armies and conflicts are the result of years of planning so thorin is still in the planning phase as sauron is displaced from dolgodur making his way to mordor around a week later with no hobbit to rouse him and no dwarves to attempt to move against him smaug goes on living in his mountain now what of the epic battle of five armies in short there's no reason for these armies to congregate in this scenario the dwarves of the iron hills are not summoned by raven messenger with the dragon still alive the elves of merkwood have no reason to leave their home the men of lake town remain on the lake and the goblins and wargs also have no reason to be there unlike it is portrayed in the films the army of goblins and wargs does not come from dulgaldur in reality the army consists of goblins of the misty mountains and grey mountains commanded by bolg these forces joined together after gandalf kills the great goblin and after hearing of smaug's death with the great goblin and smaug both still living there is no reason for this vast host to assemble or march to erebor so let's take a look at the status of middle earth sauron has returned to mordor where his nazgul have rebuilt bharadur thorn is preparing for battle in the blue mountains a vast force of orcs dwells between the grey mountains and the misty mountains smaug is alive and well in erebor and gandalf and the white council have won a victory by expelling sauron from dolgodur all the while bilbo baggins sits in his armchair and the ring of power dwells in the depths of the misty mountains gandalf would no doubt still have concerns about smaug but at this point it's hard to imagine him derailing thorin's plans after months or even years of preparation or to even know about them at all thorin marches his army of dwarves from the blue mountains making their way to war messengers are dispatched to the iron hills in an effort to get reinforcement from his cousin dane by the year 2945 the army of dwarves marches upon the mountain as gandalf says in unfinished tales i could see no hope in that with no access to the secret door the dwarves spill upon the gate of erebor and are met with fire and death smaug being now much older and stronger than when he originally took control of the mountain devastates the army of doran's folk those who survive retreat to the iron hills utterly defeated it is six years later in the actual story in 2951 that sauron sends three nazgul back to dulgador where they begin rebuilding the fortress and sauron's influence in the north arises once again with a dragon virtually in their backyard sauron sends one of his messengers as an emissary to smaug possibly in nazgul the mouth of sauron or some other servant we can look to the messenger sent to king dane as described in the fellowship of the ring for inspiration as to how this conversation might play out the lord sauron the great wishes for your friendship treasure he will give for it such treasures as he gave of old treasures far beyond the trinkets of the dwarfs in exchange for your service sauron shall give you lordship over all the lands of the north all its people will pay homage to the great dragon smog and his kingdom of erebor shall overflow with the golden jewels played by his subjects what say you i say neither yay nor nay i must consider this message and what it means under its fair cloak consider well but not too long the time of my thought is my own to spend for the present said the messenger you have won a great victory over those who would steal from you o smog but think not there are no others in middle earth who would seek to usurp your wealth even now word of the attack spreads throughout the land perhaps there are those who believe they would fare better and with greater numbers with sauron as ally no one should dare challenge the might of smoke king of the north convinced by the prospect of further riches the rule of the north and going forth unchallenged smaug agrees to ally himself with sauron an army of orcs is stationed around erebor attacking and enslaving the people of lake town in the process once again turning to unfinished tales gandalf gives us insight into sauron's approach in making his war on the free peoples with a dragon and a vast army of northern orcs at his command sauron first strikes not at the realm of gondor but of lorien and rivendell it is likely that the woodland realm would be less of a priority for sauron for one its leader is of lesser importance and unlikely to possess one of the coveted elven rings of power second with the growing danger and presence of sauron's forces in the north thranduil's people would likely retreat to the halls of the elven king which consists of a fortified system of caves while this would enable them to hold out for some time during a siege they also seem less of a threat to launch open war mobilizing the orcs of the north sauron takes control of the north passage and begins re-establishing the realm of angmar years later angmar has risen again the army of angmar led by one or more nazgul marches south along the western side of the misty mountains meanwhile a second army led by smaug marches down the eastern side we must keep in mind that with the one ring still dwelling within the misty mountains there is no journey to rivendell no council of elrond and no fellowship of the ring there is only separate realms of free peoples holding out for as long as they can against an army of orcs and a colossal dragon having become aware of the growing threat due to his regular visits to the northwest of middle earth gandalf arrives in rivendell in hopes of assisting elrond in his defense with mighty enemies on both sides gandalf elrond and the elves are far outnumbered and overrun by the time the fellowship would have formed rivendell is consumed in dragon fire and ruin encouraged by this victory and the riches it has won smaug the nazgul and their combined forces prepare to attack lorien where galadriel's strength will be put to its greatest test meanwhile gondor is still very much in a weakened state likely battling the forces of the witch king in the land surrounding ausgiliuth rohan for the past five years has been under the control of saruman through his servant wormtongue saruman also commands an army of orcs at isengard without gandalf to free king theoden of wormtongue's influence rohan falls to saruman with ease meanwhile smaug and the nazgul lead the attack upon lorien how would galadriel fare against this force we learn in the actual story that galadriel successfully repels the forces of dulgaldur three times with her power and later after kelleborne and thranduil defeat the orcs of dolgodur galadriel destroys the fortress on her own however let's not forget another event in the actual story the battle of dale in this battle which takes place around the time of the battle of pelinor fields an easterling army attacks the armies of erebor and dale with no sizable force of dwarves or men remaining in the region of erebor sauron instead sends these easterlings to reinforce smaug the sheer size and power of this force behind the dragon would simply be too much for galadriel and her elves to endure like rivendell before it lorien burns and is no more with galadriel's defeat following those of gandalf and elrond sauron now commands all three elven rings of power so at the uttermost end gondor stands alone to the south are the armies of barador minis morgul the corsairs and the haradrim from their victory at lorien come the orcs of the north and the easterlings from the remains of rohan rides the army of saruman with this massive force sauron utterly destroys minas tirith and enslaves the men of gondor middle earth is now under the dominion of the dark lord smaug returns to his mountain his treasuries having grown immensely from his plunder of the elven realms with promise of further reward coming his way from sauron with no realms left in the northwest the kingdom of angmar grows to encompass all of ariador including the shire where the hobbits are made into slaves the few elves remaining at the grey havens led by kierdan sail to the west forsaking the ruined world that was their home while the world is under sauron's control and he commands his mighty lieutenants including smaug saruman and the nazgul he cannot fully rest in his victory for the one ring remains lost for saruman and the dark lord the race is on the first to claim the ring will rule with all of middle-earth under his sway meanwhile in the forest of mirkwood the last remaining group of free peoples prepares to make its final stand as the flies overhead returning to his mountain a man of dale shackled in servitude looks up dreaming of his chance to hold a bow once again well there you have it guys there's my theory on what if smaug survived obviously there's a lot of speculation here and there's plenty of room for other ideas and opinions i'd love to hear what you think would happen if smoke survives so be sure to tell me in the comments as always i want to say 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Id: If8opS5pToI

Length: 14min 20sec (860 seconds)

Published: Sat Feb 27 2021