Tropical Storm Bret to strengthen before weakening

thanks for logging on to myfoxhurricane.com still watching tropical storm Brett uh it's struggling a little bit but despite that it is slowly starting to get a Little Bit Stronger but it's only a matter of time before really the conditions just get much more hostile for this system and we really start to see just kind of falling apart as it works way across the Caribbean but here it is right now you see those bursts of convection with this and those are kind of intermingled with some of these these down times where you see a lot of that convection going away it looks like probably in the mid levels the atmosphere we're getting some wind shear with this so it's just not able to completely establish itself and get that nice outflow and just really get all everything and just kind of cooking the way it wants to you also see some of this drier air sitting just to the north of this system but as of the 11 A.M advisory top winds are at 60 miles an hour it's moving to the West at 14 miles an hour and we haven't seen a whole lot change with that forecast track over the past couple of days what we've really been focusing on and we talk about this all the time every storm is different they've got their little unique characteristics this one's dealing with some of that mid-level wind shear and the big story with this one will continue to be wind shear over the next several days so as it works its way on towards West it looks like it'll strengthen a little bit more working its way across the islands as a moderate tropical storm and then once it works its way into the Caribbean that's when the wind shear is really going to start to pick up and you can see this goes from 60 miles an hour to 50 to 45 to gone so it's going to happen pretty quickly as this moves towards the central Caribbean the wind shear picks up very quickly and is quite strong so really the models have been suggesting several models have been suggesting over the past couple of days that it will start to encounter some very strong wind year across the Caribbean and that will dissipate this system very quickly so you look at the computer models and we're getting more and more consensus as far as that track basically just continuing on towards the West you do have some of these models going a little bit further to the north but still even with any models going further to the north they still they show strong wind shear with this and just kind of dissipating this system so so could some of that moisture drift on to the north yeah certainly and what we're really talking about is just adding more this tropical moisture across the Caribbean but not in that organized way because it dissipates this system so here's the other area that we're watching this is invest 93. now yesterday for a time this looked like it basically just kind of Fallen apart but it still had that circulation it still has the possibility that it's going to develop over the next several days the next name on list if it were to reach that tropical storm status is Cindy part of the reason it probably just get a little distance away from Brett there's some dry air sitting to the north of this system and at this point it's sitting in an area the conditions are favorable that's going to see some more development over the next couple of days but it looks like even if this develops pretty much the same fate now it's going to go not going to go on the same exact track but there's still that idea that we've got that stronger wind shear closer to the Caribbean and that's what we're going to see as we go through the next couple of days so look at the Fox Model doing a fantastic job with both of these systems it's been really spot on over the past couple of days so it looks like it's it's got a good handle of what's going on here is tropical storm Brett here is invest 93. we'll step through time and you see what happens here is Brett working its way towards the islands heading towards the Caribbean you see that strong wind shear sitting just to the north and you notice what is waiting across the Caribbean where you see that red shade that has very strong winds in the mid and upper levels the atmosphere tropical systems they don't want to see that it just shreds these systems apart so what happens as we go through the next couple of days here we are on Saturday morning Brett is now starting to encounter that strong wind shear whatever we have going on with could be Cindy could be another tropical depression but right now it's invest 93 it's sitting just to the south of that very strong windshear so it still has that possibility even into Saturday for some more strengthening but then as we head through Sunday into Monday that's what's left of Brett basically nothing that just dissipates shears that system apart and then this system is now starting to get into the core of some of that strong wind shears so it will continue to struggle as it works its way up into that area as well but we're going to continue to watch both of these systems and we'll keep you updated right here on myfoxhurricane.com

Channel: FOX 13 Tampa Bay

Views: 28,464

Keywords: Tropics, weather, tropical cyclone, meteorology, forecast, hurricanes, tropical storms, Tampa weather, Florida weather, WTVT, FOX 13, tropical update

Id: rnOFOOCaGMc

Length: 5min 0sec (300 seconds)

Published: Wed Jun 21 2023