World war 2 ended 75 years ago. It was the darkest period of humankind. Even though just 20 years earlier world war
1 ended. A war to end all wars, supposedly. Yeah, that turned out well. The Seven Years war and Napoleonic wars could
also be labeled as world wars, in a sense. With so many wars throughout human history,
it’s quite possible we’re just several international incidents, trade wars, civil
wars or revolutions away from the next truly global conflict. So where could it start? But world wars usually start out of smaller, local
wars. There are currently several locations around
the world where such a hotspot might explode into a world war. One of those areas, the arctic, we sort of
covered in last week’s video. So check that out too, the link is below,
in video description. Anyway... Ukraine could, in theory, flare up once again. The pro russian separatists are currently
dormant, but that may be due to lack of support for them from Russia. It’s not impossible to imagine a situation
where the entire Ukraine destabilizes. Due to suspicious elections, or an internal
economic crisis exacerbated by the global crisis caused by the corona virus event. If such destabilization happens, the lack
of central government control might induce further separatist movements, not just the
ones in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk controlled by existing separatist forces. Indeed, the two self proclaimed republics
of Donetsk and Luhansk claim a much larger territory than they control. And if the ukranean central government falls
apart, they might seize the opportunity to try and expand. Russia’s own response would be key, of course,
and would decide whether such an event would remain a local war or would flare up into
a larger incident. Russia has been feeling threatened by the
US, for some time. That feeling never really went away, of course,
after the end of the cold war. But ever since the events that happened in
ukraine in 2014, the relationship has been pretty bad. Various examples of political and economic
pressure, like the US attempts to stop economic infrastructure cooperation between Russia
and european countries, like with the Nord stream 2 gas pipeline have only made the matters
more tense. Just like Russia felt compelled to take Crimea
in 2014, as it was fearing it’d lose Access to it for good, It’s not out of the question
that Russia would openly support the separatists once again, perhaps even to a greater degree
than before. Once Russian forces do start operating inside
Ukraine in massive numbers, rather than in covert formations like before, the line would
get very blurry. Where might Russia stop with its incursion
into ukraine? Where might the west decide that enough is
enough and send its own troops into ukraine? And when armed forces from two sides are so
close to each other, inside a country ravaged by fighting and civil war - incidents can
very easily lead to catastrophe. One side might cause accidental deaths to
the other side, for example. The other side retaliates. Then all hell breaks loose. A similar situation, again involving Russia,
could flare up in the Baltic region. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are all nato
countries, but are very light on armed forces of their own. And nato forces from other countries have
regularly deployed there to help beef up their defenses. Any delicate situation between US and Russia
anywhere else, like in the Arctic or in Ukraine, could lead to both sides accumulating forces. And Russia could again feel threatened if
suddenly NATO started pouring troops anywhere close to Russia. The US was unwilling to let Soviets install
missiles in Cuba back in 1962, at the US doorstep, and was playing a game of chicken to see who’d
blink first. They actually made the soviets believe they’d
attack them if Soviet forces didn't leave cuba. And even that was in reaction to NATO’s
own missile deployments near the Soviet Union, in Turkey. So it's not unimaginable that Russia might
do the same if too many NATO forces or specific missile weapon systems suddenly find their
way to the Baltics. And the Baltics there are not just the 3 mentioned
nato countries. Equally dangerous is the baltic region of
kaliningrad, which has remained in soviet and later russian hands since world war 2. Russia has been very protective of that region,
which is heavily militarized for its size. It’s basically the only permanent russian
access to the baltic sea, due to the winter period when maritime traffic around St. Petersburg
requires constant icebreaker support. Of course, there’s Poland, right next to
Kaliningrad. And Poland has been one of the most trusted
US allies in recent years, more so than Germany or France. Poland is already seen by some as an alternate
staging ground for a US army presence in Europe, if Germany one day decides it doesn’t want
US troops there anymore. We’re talking possibly tens of miles of
distance between US and russian forces then. NATO already doesn’t like the russian ballistic
missiles stationed in the Kaliningrad region. And with the INF treaty basically falling
apart, both sides are already developing platforms which may further exacerbate the situation. One wrong move and missiles may fly all over
europe. There’s also the never ending struggle between
Pakistan and India. While there’s been relative peace between
them since the Kargil war of 1999, there have been armed incidents with loss of life in
recent years. The two going to war are perhaps even more
likely to cause a further world war then decades ago. Back then, their wars were seen as fairly
isolated events. It was their own business. The Soviet Union and NATO had little immediate
interest in using them as proxies. But today, India is a huge part of the global
economy. And Pakistan is a big part of the trade routes,
both for the west but also for China. There are massive interests there that go
way beyond just Pakistan and india. Pakistan has been one of China’s longest
allies. And India is sort of aligning with the west
but also playing with Russia and it doesn’t seem to want to pick just one chair to sit
on. It’s not hard to imagine a situation where
a simple border skirmish would lead to a war between India and Pakistan. And then, perhaps, both the US and China selling
arms to their side. Perhaps even China inserting its own forces
to secure vital trade routes. And once one side does that - the gloves are
off. China and the US are, of course, butting heads
at an increasing rate. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that
the world war might not start at some proxy location but also right at the chinese doorstep. There are two territories that are especially
sensitive. The Island of Taiwan and the chinese made
islands in the south China sea. Both are claimed by China and it doesn’t
seem as if China wants to let go of either. Taiwan is not under chinese control, though. Previously, US governments have sided with
China, and not really maintained official diplomatic relations with the country of Taiwan. But recently, US foreign policy changed, as
part of an overall approach to put pressure on China. The US did not sell many arms between 2000
to 2015, yet recently it started to do so again. So imagine if the US basically recognized
Taiwan as an independent country. And sold tons of weaponry, perhaps even held
military exercises with the Taiwanese. And then little by little some of the US military
presence would just remain in Taiwan itself. That might be done to provoke China, perhaps
to do something as reckless as military action. If China does strike first, the US would likely
be able to count on a broader coalition of countries, uniting against China. China might feel cornered and very antsy. Very protective of its claims. So it could either feel so provoked that it
actually does attack Taiwanese assets. In which case the US might very easily get
dragged into war... Or it could be so tense that any US military
asset near its borders gets shot at. And the islands in the south china sea would
be the perfect ground for such a spark. The US doesn’t approve of China taking control
of rocks and reefs there and excavating earth, turning those reefs into proper islands and
making bases on them. China has built up at least 7 rocks into artificial
islands in the Spratly archipelago, 3 of which have sprawling military bases with runways. The US has been sailing close to those islands
as it is. Now imagine all that going on, or even increasing
in frequency when there's a Taiwan crisis going on. The Chances for one side’s planes or ships
to feel threatened would be immense. Accidents might occur. Warning shots might get fired. And sooner or later someone might die. At which point the door to world war iii might
be wide open. Iran is another example of a country that
might find itself in a proxy war between world powers. The US, as the recent years have shown, is
pretty determined on not letting Iran trade with anyone. But what happens if US relations with other
countries deteriorate as well? We’ve seen the US implementing partial sanctions
on Russia and waging a trade war against China. If for example the economic war with China
goes further, or goes so far that the US is basically not trading with China anymore - then
what would be stopping China from trading with Iran? While the US will not be able to prevent the
other countries from trading with China, they might make an example of Iran. So if all else fails, there might be military
action against Iran. The pretense for that is plentiful as it is. Iran has been influencing the internal politics
of Iraq. They’ve been shooting down some US aircraft
and boarding british ships. And Iran is very much a part of the Syrian
struggle, supporting Assad’s military effort. The US could use any one of those as a pretext
to strike. Lets face it, Iran has been on the US list
for decades now. The strike might not even come from the US,
though. If the internal politics of Iran change, perhaps
even due to US economic pressure, Iran might indeed choose to continue its nuclear weapons
programme. If Iran does get on the verge of fielding
nuclear tipped missiles, Israel or Saudi Arabia might strike first. They have both been threatened by Iran before
and feel threatened by a nuclear armed Iran. So a strike on iran’s nuclear forces and
installations as a preemptive measure is not out of the question. Such a strike could also very easily lead
to total war, one that could very easily pour into Iraq, due to its key location. And make the war in Syria even worse. Possibly even dragging Turkey into everything. At that point, where Syria, a long term Russian
ally, is threatened, and where perhaps China and Russia feel threatened by a possible pro
western regime change in Iran, playing against them - then China and Russia might openly
support Iran. Again, all hell might break loose. North Korea was inevitable on a list like
this. On its own, it’s pretty insignificant. No world superpower really thinks it's worth
the hassle, to even try and cozy up to it. Which is why the status quo - the detachment
from South Korea and world isolation has been going on for decades. But when Kim jong un dies, there might be
a power vacuum left behind. Multiple internal parties might fight to succeed
him. And the government crumbles. There’s a revolution, potentially even a
civil war. The country has nuclear weapons. Do the US and China stay put and just leave
it be? Does South Korea, which has tens of millions
of its people within missile reach, just let it play out? Or do the superpowers try to take advantage
of the situation and try to influence the outcome of the power struggle? Because, it's not unimportant who North Korea
will align with in the future. The geography of North Korea means a lot to
both the US and China. If the US could perhaps count on one day having
its troops on current North korean soil, let's say as part of unified Korea, then they’d
basically have a route towards Beijing. If China had control over North Korea, they’d
have easy access to the sea of japan, and thus easier access to both the pacific and
possibly access to US military assets stationed around Japan itself. So one superpower could send in secret weapons. The other side could infiltrate their own
troops, under disguise. Both could try and subvert the population,
to make them believe THEY are the true saviours. That can be done through various economic
means, disguised as economic or even humanitarian aid. And before you know it, it could all escalate
to name calling between China and the US, to various combat air patrols over North Korea,
so both sides can monitor that the other side isn’t helping anyone - and ultimately such
tensions could lead to unintentional skirmishes. And war. As you can tell, pretty much all of these
scenarios are dependent on one thing - the existing bad relationship between superpowers. Without that, no proxy war could flare up
into a world war. But if globalization is reversed, if international
trade is limited, if nationalism rises, if the Coronavirus crisis gets overly politicized
and an iron curtain is once again raised - there is no telling what bad things the future might
bring.
