Is US military strong enough to conquer China on its own?

china seems to be in the u.s crosshairs a lot lately but this video isn't about politics hypothetically speaking if all this political posturing does result in a hot war between the two just how much damage could the u.s do to china is marching with the land army to beijing an option and what would it take for such a wild operation bringing the war to mainland china to succeed the us and china's war would likely pull other countries into the conflict while actual results are hard to predict they're interesting to model in games like in conflict of nations sponsoring this video it's a free online strategy game i enjoy you choose a country to lead and take over the world define your own strategy build powerful armies by combining dozens of different modern unit types there is various kinds of infantry tanks planes and ships you fight up to 64 other players in real time and binku viewers are getting a special gift click on the link below in the video description to get 13 000 gold and 1 month of premium subscription for free more about the game after our video back to our hypothetical war the future is unpredictable so this war is set to late 2020. taking chinese mainland is a complex topic so much so that the crucial geopolitical aspect of it all will be discussed in a separate later video china has a bigger ground force in terms of active soldiers the us national guard is a combat reserve formation but with more training than usual reserves u.s or chinese ones as the rest are mostly support units not combat units the chinese militia reservist formation also has some 2 million armed troops doing at least some training but all those figures would not come into play until the air war and war on the seas are settled the us has quite a bit more active service planes chinese figures are realistic case estimates neither side has reserve units planes included except for the us air national guard units as those are closer to active service quality the technological edge is also apparent the us has 13 times more stealth planes almost 4 times more fighters with modern radars and almost 2 times more large fighters on the seas the disparity is even more pronounced the list shows only commissioned ships the carriers are not so useful to china in a defensive role u.s ships are generally bigger and carry more weapons though china has many more coastal ships which could interfere with u.s navy assaults submarine numbers are almost the same but chinese subs are smaller and less advanced a big issue for the us is access to nearby ports and air bases without those the us force projection might drop quite a bit this video will assume japanese cooperation when it comes to u.s bases other variants of the scenario with more or fewer allies will be covered in a later video the us carrier fleet would provide only a smaller part of the overall u.s combat aircraft numbers any big ship needs a lot of downtime even if most could be surge at once that would be detrimental to later numbers important in a long term war against china planes 2 need maintenance realistically there might be only 4 to 6 on four to six carriers near china once the us is ready to start its attack and if six are surged that number would likely keep falling during the first year due to downtime issues similarly four or five small carriers would be the limit for the likes of the harrier or f-35b if used as carriers but those ships might be more effective as assault ships with just a few jets each basically some 400 combat planes would be the top limit the u.s could feel from their carriers on the other hand the us air force already has that many planes near china most of those in its japanese bases and on guam as the naval forces assembled near china the u.s air force could add a few thousand more land-based aircraft in various existing bases but also new bases in japan and perhaps even australia various commercial airports repurposed into combat air bases would be a common feature perhaps even new additional runways and whole bases might spring up within months the us might eventually be feeling over 2 000 combat planes on japanese soil basically all of the us air force if needed so the basing area would not be an issue if japan can be counted on but the issue of distance would still remain to reach the chinese coast there is still the east china sea to cover bases like those on okinawa are very close by but that also means they would be the first to be hit by china it's unlikely such bases would survive also china is a big country reaching one part doesn't mean the same plane could easily reach another part of china while the shanghai region would be the most exposed to the us attacks the approach to beijing for example would be protected by land masses left and right even in air refuelling could not really help there as trying to refuel just a few hundred miles of chinese coasts would likely end in tanker interceptions and trying to provide air superiority anywhere in southern china would be extremely hard due to the extreme distances now all these distances even doing thousand miles let alone crossing two thousand miles from tokyo to hainan island are very hard to do for most planes the realistic combat radius of most planes would be 500 to 800 miles when taking into account bomb loads supersonic dashes and possible low altitude approaches to targets but that's before the u.s starts to use its one massive advantage it's vast fleet of in air refueling tankers using those the us would be able to effectively double or sometimes almost triple the stated range figures the capacity figure shown is a theoretical one at any given time there would be only a few hundred planes in the air at once still it's evident that would say two refuelings on the way out and two more on the way back for each plane even the south china sea could be covered such extreme missions would be impossible to sustain on a prolonged massive scale and would likely be used for strikes on fixed targets fighter combat air patrol interceptions or striking targets of opportunity would not work over such distances all those tanker planes would be quite vulnerable to various chinese missile strikes they're very large and quite hard to protect or even hide they might partially hide amongst various parked commercial airliners though but extreme distance cuts both ways placing those tankers away from china would cut into their refueling capability but it might protect them as china doesn't actually have that many stand-off missiles of long reach their impressive arsenal is primarily designed against closer targets such as taiwan when targeting the tokyo area or guam only a few hundred ballistic missiles would be able to reach them of course the calculus changes for targets in japan if russia for example just tacitly allows chinese to shoot over their territory it would be very hard to keep this kind of war from growing into a world war trying to hunt down all the launch platforms would be impossible in a timely manner but the us would more than reciprocitate with its own stand stand-off missile arsenal most cruise missiles are subsonic and easier to shoot down if flying a straight route to target in practice their useful range would be less as they fly various roundabout routes ballistic missiles do fly a straight route maximizing range they rely on their very high speed and altitude to avoid interceptions but the us has been developing anti-ballistic missile systems against such weapons the systems such as patriot pak-3 would try to protect against shorter ranged and slower ballistic missiles thaad batteries and aegis sm-3 missiles would protect against the really fast missiles the navy's bmd ships would be crucial for protecting various land sites augmenting other defenses all such systems would only try to intercept the incoming missiles with various success rates thaad and sm-3 had roughly 80 success rate in testing in actual war conditions with saturation attacks it's likely two or even three interceptors would be needed per each incoming missile although standoff missile strikes would hardly make a dent on the massive battlefield with hundreds of thousands of various targets they would slow down the enemy and temporarily shut down some bases and factories weeks would be needed to fire them all with some targets getting repaired in the meantime japan 2 has some pak-3 missiles but their biggest addition would really be their own protective shield besides their air force they have a robust sam network and their naval ships add many more anti-air systems as well if china tried to use its air force in a continuous campaign against the us and japanese forces on the japanese mainland it would face bigger numbers better attack and a lot of sam systems against it long term it would be suicidal for china so it would probably save those planes for only occasional strikes of opportunity for defense and perhaps for taking out some key bases closer to china like okinawa and some of the other nearby islands bombing them and attempting assaults on them the chinese landing fleet has been growing over the decades and is very much suited to disembark tens of thousands of troops to such nearby locations after some months once the us assembles its assets in huge numbers the blue side would commence its campaign into china but there's a lot of defenses the us would need to go through before they could hope to reach the chinese shores chinese naval expansion has focused a lot on air defenses their fleet is now capable of projecting a defensive sam umbrella some distance from the coastline even the frigates are capable as they use missiles that cover altitudes of some 12 miles up basically no u.s non-stealthy plane could fly close to them without getting threatened the us would likely take it very slow with their invasion pushing too much at once usually means too many unnecessary casualties even if china takes some islands there would be no rush to take them back but the chinese navy would likely stick to their shores and enjoy the added protection of their air forces and even their land-based air defenses and china does have a lot of those even the older systems could come in handy of course as there might not always be enough jammers and decoys available for the us if the approach routes to china are limited by a lack of allied countries most of those sams could be concentrated in a fairly small area providing formidable overlapped defenses early warning and airborne radars would add to the shown figure the concentration of sams and radars might initially be such that even stealth aircraft could not hope to fly over the coastline without getting so close to a radar that would either threaten them directly or would direct fighter interceptors to them besides the ground warning network china has been improving their aerial radar fleet while the very local situational awareness in an air battle might be on the u.s side due to the technology edge the broader situational awareness might favor the chinese they would have many land sea and air based radars tracking the enemies the closer the us would go to the chinese coastline the less it could depend on both sea based and air based radars like aywax massive air battles would ensue at first near the coastline while the us might very well have more planes fairly nearby in actual localized clashes there might be instances where the chinese fighters outnumber them that's because sending a thousand fighters at once and organizing them all to receive ample in-air refuelling would be way too unwieldy adding in chinese sams the us force going for the coastline might have to rely on tax superiority rather than on numbers numbers here are totals of active service planes for both sides not all would be available for missions at the same time especially for the us the list shown is rough so two planes within the same rank are not necessarily of the same capability both sides would use bombers as missile trucks only the stealthy usb-2s might strike flying over targets and sometimes remaining alive the us tech edge over china has been eroding chinese are equipped with very modern missiles radars and jammers given the other factors as well the us might be losing a dozen planes per day positive kill rates against chinese planes would not be assured but the us does have more planes at some point probably well past the six months mark the chinese air forces would be severely depleted and unable to control the skies near the coastline while the us would likely still have some 2000 combat planes remaining depending on the size of its overall alliance while china could save some of its forces by simply not trying to protect the coastline that would be disastrous for its economy in the long run a huge chunk of everything important in china is located near the coastline both sides navies would suffer major losses during the said time frame to be efficient the u.s carriers would need to get close many escort ships would likely suffer defending those carriers inevitably at least a few u.s super carriers themselves would get sunk and if the u.s navy presses on too early even half of the u.s carrier fleet might be neutralized the chinese have over the years assembled a dedicated network for locating and tracking carriers out in the ocean that would be harder but within the first island chain satellites underwater solar networks various drones and probably the most powerful coastal based anti-shipping force in the world would inflict serious losses u.s submarines would be most lethal at torpedo ranges neighboring seas are not ideal for fast attacking sub-maneuvers they're shallow and the subs can't dive deep to hide beneath the thermocline layer which usually protects subs from long-range sonar in open oceans the chinese have also built up their anti-submarine capabilities most of their new large ships have taught and variable depth sonars and half of their corvettes are of the anti-submarine variant aerial assets would aid in the submarine hunt in the opening stages of the war while the chinese numbers could still provide cover threat levels and the fact u.s destroyers might not be risked going forward to hunt for chinese subs would mean the u.s subs would largely rely on airborne protection only or they wouldn't go so close to china at all in theory the us does have a vast fleet of anti-submarine aircraft but only a small portion of those might survive operating near chinese shores china's own submarines are mostly diesel-electric but they wouldn't need to sail far they could practically wait or very slowly and silently broad forward hoping to ambush the enemy ships or subs depending on just how aggressive the us navy would be with their submarine use perhaps even half of the u.s subfleet might perish before the war ends of course much of the chinese navy would be sunk by then besides taking back okinawa the us might take south china sea islands over the decades chinese have built up whole islands on some rocks there there are at least seven island bases with three to four being able to operate combat aircraft they're sort of unsinkable and repairable aircraft carriers but that all applies up until the point the islands themselves can be kept supplied months into the war when the chinese air force is forced to retreat those islands would become a liability the chinese navy could try to protect them on its own but it would be exposed to still plentiful u.s forces eventually china would likely retreat from those islands the islands are tiny and not fit to support many troops over a long time on their own they would also come in handy to the us after it takes them they could become staging grounds for an attempted invasion of hainan island why there because islands are inherently easier to take than actually disembarking on the chinese mainland it would still be a huge undertaking hainan is close to the mainland the nearby peninsula does mean the mainland connection is small and would likely be cramped with various hardware it would be easier for u.s air power to suppress the island itself is huge very populated and with its own production there could very well be a few hundred thousand chinese troops there stocked in advance to last for years additional resupply by small low-flying aircraft or tiny boats would likely go on despite u.s efforts as the u.s would not be able to park its ships right next to the chinese mainland the us assault force is fairly large but it too has limits the airborne assault force would still be somewhat limited by distance even using the newly captured scs airfields the us might fall short of the troop numbers needed to secure a beach head assuming an optimistic 75 percent of all amphibious ships and 50 percent of plane fleet capacity the first wave might hope to land some 50 000 troops with subsequent waves landing much fewer as more and more supplies need to be landed as well though the bigger issue would be continuous losses to the u.s landing ship fleet compared to the normandy landings for example the us would not nearly be enjoying the same air superiority control of the literal waters the same element of surprise or even local numerical superiority on the ground it's likely such an assault would either fail ending a hundred thousand u.s soldiers lost or succeed sort of losing almost as many u.s soldiers the professional core of the u.s assault force and many of its hardware assets all for taking one island and neutralizing or capturing 300 or so thousand chinese troops in the grand scheme of things it would mean the us would be unable to attempt such a huge scale assault anywhere else for a year and china would have plenty of time to train replacement troops is there a better place to perform a landing no but of all the worst places the shandong peninsula might be the least bad it too would prevent china from attacking the landed force from many sides it's even fairly close to japan so the infrastructure supporting the planes and ships making cycles to shandong might allow for somewhat quicker accumulation of a larger landing force the problem is the chinese forces channeled there would basically have no limits to their numbers all the heavy hardware like artillery and tanks could be sent there and supplied and china has a big edge in heavy hardware compared to the us especially to what the us could actually land on enemy shores his aircraft would basically land only very light vehicles and even the ships would be landing a few hundred tanks and ifvs at best artillery firepower actually landed on the beaches would also be lacking for the us attack helicopters would be fewer numbers mostly marine corps assets with only some army apaches the us forces would eventually be driven into the sea with us local firepower significantly lacking the us air force would be roughly half by then what's left of it would be operating over quite some distance to support the landings that means even fewer planes actually on patrol for combat air support ships that would be close enough to provide artillery cover would also be close enough to be hit by chinese missiles so would reaching beijing even be feasible for the us no while some extra level of surprise could be had if the u.s tried landing elsewhere ultimately it would mean a longer route to beijing and a landing zone that's even farther away from us bases meaning a smaller landing force fighting a chinese response force that would not be limited by the constraints of a peninsula realistically the only way to successfully go into china and reach beijing would be by a multi-year war amassing allies and amassing a huge land force to fight through via a long bloody land route counting on industrial supremacy of the alliance would that actually be politically possible is very questionable the chinese navy and most of its air force could be defeated especially when it comes to power projection but using outside force most likely china could not be defeated by a foreign land army but realistically speaking though a locked in china with its economy and industry devastated would already be a defeated china oh and do check out conflict of nations the game is set in the early 21st century and features modern day weapons and technology there are awax planes with their radar ranges modeled anti-submarine helicopters and amphibious assault vehicles are simulated too and nukes as well you can play with the same account on both pc and mobile fight for world domination in epic real-time battles in a challenging pvp environment games can take weeks to complete join a huge community of millions of players in the game and discord and use your diplomatic skills to forge alliances with other players so why not give it a try it's free and the link is given below this video you will get a special gift 13 000 gold and 1 month of premium subscription for free that offer is available for 30 days only and remember binkov may talk about hypothetical wars but only real peace can bring us all [Music] together you

Channel: Binkov's Battlegrounds

Views: 1,454,437

Rating: 4.6214781 out of 5

Keywords: China vs US military, USA v China, Chinese military, US military, South China sea, Taiwan v China, Ballistic missile, Stealth fighter, Binkov's Battlegrounds, 2021

Id: FxYwD_n21wI

Length: 22min 35sec (1355 seconds)

Published: Fri Sep 11 2020

Reddit Comments

[u/OpanaPointer]

"Never get involved in a land war in Asia."

[u/LetsGoHawks]

Conquer? Nope. Nor do they need to be.

They just have to be strong enough that even if China did win the air/naval war, it would be a Pyrrhic Victory.