Tom Nichols: Are Facts Dead?

good afternoon and welcome to today's meeting  of the Commonwealth Club of California the place   where you're in the know you can find us online  at Commonwealth Club org Facebook and Twitter   and on the club's YouTube channel I'm Melissa  Kane politics reporter for CBS 5 television   in San Francisco and your moderator and it is  my pleasure to introduce today's distinguished   speaker tom nichols he's a professor of national  security affairs at the US Naval War College and   the author of the new book the depth of expertise  the campaign against established knowledge and   wide matters fake news fake facts and all-knowing  proclamations on social media are we at a point   where expertise is meaningless prompted by this  concern Tom Nichols wrote the death of expertise   he says people are now exposed to more information  than ever before and that as this societal gain   is a societal gain it's also helped to fuel a  surge in narcissistic and misguided intellectual   egalitarianism that has crippled informed debates  on any number of issues today he says everyone   knows everything with a quick trip through WebMD  or Wikipedia average citizens believe themselves   to be an equal intellectual footing with doctors  and diplomats all voices even the most ridiculous   demand to be taken with equal seriousness and any  claim to the contrary is dismissed as elitism dr.   Nichols is concerned that the current rejection of  expertise and learning could threaten the survival   of our democracy so the obvious question is who is  dr. Nichols to tell us about expertise C some kind   of expert well yes before becoming a professor  at the Naval War College he taught international   relations and Russian affairs at Dartmouth  College and Georgetown University dr. Nichols   was a defence and security affairs adviser to the  late state late Senator John Heinz of Pennsylvania   and was a fellow at the Center for Strategic and  International Studies in Washington DC since 2008   he's been a fellow at the international security  program at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government   dr. Nichols holds a PhD from Georgetown University  and perhaps most impressively is a five-time   undefeated jeopardy champion so he knows quite a  number of real facts please welcome dr. Tom Nichol thank you so much well proof again that no matter what you do  in your life going on Jeopardy makes it real   well thank you so much for having me I'm really  honored to be here I want to start by saying that   I reflect only my own views here and not those  in the Naval War College or Harvard or anybody   but myself I think the question that I often get  about this I'll just start with is why would I do   this why would I start why would I write a book  with such an unbelievably obnoxious title and   a subtitle that almost dares you to disagree  with me the book actually I never intended to   write this book I had always kind of accepted that  experts get challenged that's part of it as I say   oftentimes in the book goes with the territory if  you're an expert in something whether it's Foreign   Affairs journalism science medicine whatever it  is law people people will ask you questions and   really it's your job to answer them that's your  client Society is your client what struck me was   that over the years that questioning of experts  was moving into something different it was turning   into replacing experts it wasn't people saying  I doubt you and I want you to explain yourself   or I have questions or I want a second opinion or  I want to hear from somebody else it was people   saying literally I'm I know more about this than  you do because I went to college or you know as   we can talk about later as I sometimes called I  went to college depending on what they did and   where they went or I watched enough television  or I searched the internet or whatever it was   that made them think that and the the moment that  kind of tripped the switch for me was about four   years ago I regardless of what folks may think I  actually didn't write this book about the election   I could have but I did uh it was during the Edward  Snowden business where I as a Russia guy set you   know that there's we're going to find that Russia  is deeply involved in this there's a you know this   is a pretty object for people who study Russia and  the old Soviet Union that's kind of a no-brainer   I mean it's going to be pretty obvious and of  course a lot of folks time didn't want to hear   that and finally somebody I can remember was young  younger person said Tom let me explain Russia to   you and I said oh no no no no no no and I sat down  I used to have a blog which I don't have anymore   because the blogs are part of the problem and  I decided to not be part of the problem anymore   so I closed down my blog it turned out that there  you know every thought we have doesn't need to be   expressed and written down and I sat down in front  of my blog and I kind of as therapy wrote a long   piece where I said you know people people really  need to understand when to listen to experts and   you know when to how you deal with expertise and  how to think about it and at that point I didn't   think much more of it I kind of had my therapy I  felt better I wrote my way you know out of being   annoyed and then a magazine came to me a new  a new conservative I kind of like culture and   ideas magazine popped up and so we'd like that  your piece and I I gave it away I said sure take   it you know this is really an old man yelling at  clouds kind of piece and who you know if you want   it you can have it that's when it went viral and  within about a year over a million people around   the world would read it I was started getting  letters and mostly good letters I got some   you know angry mail because you know you write  anything you get hate mail but mostly I mean I   the one I remember was from a molecular biologist  in France who said thank you for writing this can   I translate it hang it on the door of my lab and I  I was like because because people are arguing with   you about molecular biology and then I started  just getting letters and letters and letters   doctors lawyers journalists teachers you name  it people in every walk of life and people not   just from profession some you know photographers  electricians anybody who has specialized knowledge   has had the experience of this happening so once  again I kind of left them that said well if if   I've helped people feel better that's great but  that's when Oxford approached me and said you   should turn this into a book and so here we are  so what do I think is happening what let me try   and distill the book down to a few minutes and get  to your questions as soon as we can I don't think   I did not write a book let's put it this way I  did not write a book about why everyone should   just shut up and listen to me or should just shut  up and listen to people who have advanced degrees   or anything like that I mean this is it this is  I think one of the things that people have always   been concerned about that this is really just  a way of saying you know experts want deference   and respect and fame and glory and it's really not  the case as I say many times in the book experts   are the servants of a democratic society not the  masters what I did identify though was and that   word I I use in every time I talk about the book  what I did identifies what I think is an epidemic   of narcissism that has created a society in which  no one can tolerate ever being told they're wrong   or that they don't know enough about something now  how did this happen well as someone who tends to   lean conservative I blame blame all bad things  on the 1960s but I thought maybe I should be a   little more granular about that i I think there  have been there's been a confluence of several   things including the kind of institutionalization  of a youth culture that is constantly questioning   to the point of incoherence sometimes but I  think it's more than that some of its been   aided by technology some of its been aided by  the way we do higher education some of its been   aided by the way our journalistic institutions  have splintered into a million different pieces   specifically in the book I talk about three things  and I put the internet last actually because when   I started working on this people said well it's  the Internet right and it preached and my answer   was no it predates the Internet this phenomenon  actually predates the internet I talked about   education specifically higher education where  the the brush to make college a mass experience   is creating a whole successive generations of  people who have gone to college as an experience   but who are not actually college educated in the  sense that we would once understand that with the   critical thinking skills the breadth of exposure  to ideas the the overall understanding of their   own civilization we have people that have gone  to some kind of post-secondary education where   they've been treated like clients and I really  hammer this in the book pretty hard that caught   that a lot of universities and let me just say I  I still believe American universities are the best   in the world they still believe they provide the  greatest education if you are conscientious about   getting one but they provide a client servicing  mentality where as one of my colleagues many years   ago said to me I don't feel like a professor I  feel like a clerk in an expensive boutique and   that has enabled all kinds of other problems  including grade inflation you know students   are coming out of college and saying well I must  know a lot of stuff I had a three point you know   I had a 5.7 GPA on a 4.0 scale I must be awesome  especially in math and I and I think that is a   serious problem now one rejoinder to this is just  that well yes but not in stem well I can't speak   for the stem field and I don't know you know  that's not a world I'm deeply familiar with but   let's face it most college students don't go to  school and become stem majors this is a broader   problem of a kind of fo university education  and in fact I note in the book and maybe it's   happening here in California because I can say  it's definitely happening in New England how   many small colleges that were once content to  be small colleges have rebranded themselves as   universities every time I Drive by a sign it's a  brand new sign that has turned some small college   into you know galactic State University and I  don't understand how they managed to make that   claim but of course that's because students want  to say I went to a university I am a university   education when in fact they don't so a big part  of this is the client servicing mentality that   takes a lot of younger people pushes them through  four or increasingly five or six or seven years   of an expensive undergraduate education tells them  that they're smart because it's been telling them   because we're telling them from K through 12 that  they're smart and then we tell them for the next   four years or five that they're smart and then  when they get out they say well I must be able   to comprehend everything because I'm smart that's  a real problem I also talked about another field   I am an educator but another field where I don't  actually work as journalism but I talked with a   lot of journalists and I tried to kind of unpack  this problem of why isn't journalism helping us   to get out of this problem and some of it I think  is a chicken and egg problem because people lack   critical thinking skills by the way I was asked  how can we instill critical thinking skills   in younger students and I said stop telling them  they're awesome all day that would be a good start   one of my first professors in graduate school  used to start by handing out a an essay he'd   written called what a student owes a teacher to  grad students and of course we all kind of react   to that and it included things like trust humility  docility you know there's big imposing Jesuit just   hand this to us and say this is how we're going  to start and of course we all kind of bristle I've   told this story before but I think I'll tell it  again I I passed that class by the way I got past   this tough Jesuit philosophy professor and I got  an A and I walked up to him thinking that I was   now you know his peer smarter than all smartest  kid in the class and all that stuff I walked up   to him at Christmas at the Christmas party and I  said what do you say father I said Merry Christmas   what do you say peace on earth goodwill toward  men and he looked at me over his clothes and he   said what'd he say to you mr. Nichols his repent  now journalism I was actually asked recently was   the world a better place when journalists you  know when we had three TV networks and I said   well in some ways I guess I'm going to say yes  I grant you that those that half hour of news   at the end of every day was a curated stream of  what a bunch of rich old white guys working for   corporations in New York City wanted you to hear  I still think that their decision that an arms   control treaty was more important than which  Kardashian is sleeping with whom was a better   curation of the news but be that as it may those  days are past the problem now is that we have   so much bandwidth and so much cable availability  you know can we take cable as a fact of life I'm   just don't be fooled by my youthful good looks I'm  actually old enough to remember when cable arrived   and when c-span first won our CNN's first one on  the air we have to fill that time and so the the   market is now segmenting if you're liberal you  watch MSNBC you're conservative if you watch Fox   if you want to read things that you often agree  with in one direction you read nothing to impose   so I read things in another you read National  Review or slate or whatever it is and people   can go through their whole day saying I watched  the news when in fact all they've done is read   a lot of stuff that they've cherry-pick to agree  with them if they read it at all and assuming they   didn't just breeze past the headlines in a Google  search because you know if you believe what the   first ten results in a Google search it's pretty  clear Barack Obama was born in Kenya so journalism   has again become a kind of marketized client  servicing organization I mean it's it's almost   quaint to talk about the days when news the news  division was the money loser in a network right   the news was like a public service that you  know the network's went well we got it we got   to do something so put on the news and we're on  a half an hour the other thing that's different   is because of the ubiquity of cable years that  people think they have watched the news when what   they mean is I have left on some video wallpaper  all day that I did not actually watch and I mean   I again I contrast this to when I was a boy my  parents were not educated people I did not come   I come from a working-class background I did not  come from a very I came from a factory town in the   Connecticut Valley in Massachusetts but for that  half-hour my father watched news aerobic Li you   could not interrupt my father watching the news  that was his half hour and he watched it to the   point of almost sweating because that he felt  that was important whereas now he said well you   know I'll just graze it's a buffet it's on all  the time it's just a big kind of you know junk   food buffet and I'll take a little this a little  that and people don't really watch the news so   much as they sort of graze and cherry-pick it say  a few words about the internet which I'm loathe   to do here in the heart of Silicon Valley I love  the Internet I actually do love the Internet I'm   bye-bye middle-aged professor standards I'm a  geek I mean I love computers my wife can tell   you that I probably love them too much I I was  an early adopter of the Internet I mean I was   one of those guys that their one old netscape  browser watching pages load you know a line at   a time while my my Hayes modem went here or you  know and woke up the whole neighborhood but I   cannot deny being pessimistic that the Internet is  also making a stupider and meaner it just is it's   making people dumber and it's making them more  mean than they used to be because it's replacing   human interaction and I think there's there's so  many ways that we could blame the internet but I   in the end you know I blame the users I blame  the people it's like saying it's to me it's   like blaming obesity on on fast-food joints no  I blame the people who eat fast food all day you   know I when it comes to the news and the usage of  the internet for for educating oneself I you know   I always say treat it like food Ferrier diet  make healthy choices and limit your intake and   yet people who say I don't have the time to read a  newspaper will spend hours plowing through stupid   memes on Facebook from you know some aren't  somewhere who has decided that you know Vince   Foster is alive and living with Elvis and you  know you just cannot get people out of these these   habits because it's fun it makes it's empowering  and that's the last thing I'll say about all   this is that what what's really going on here this  attack on experts and by experts I mean people who   know things to to a level of specialization that  necessarily excludes lay people the people you   would ask to want if you needed to know something  who would you ask that's a good first cut it who's   an expert that this attack on expertise is part  of this narcissistic trend in American society   and I'm not the first one to note that I mean  people in the writing for 40 years about all the   way back to Christopher lash about why America is  becoming more narcissistic but it's also because   people feel a lot of things are out of their  control and arguing with experts in a world where   though everything seems to be swirling around and  you can't get a grip on anything experts who seem   to know what's going on immediately become  the scapegoats and become the problem and   it becomes very empowering to say I don't believe  the experts at all it's all a way of the ordinary   person saying you're not the boss of me and that  that recreates a certain sense of autonomy that I   think people feel is lost when the world starts  moving as quickly around them as it does we've   always had this problem there has always been  an anti-intellectual streak in American society   and I would argue that that's actually a good  thing I think Americans have always had a good   solid reliance on their common sense we don't we  are not like you know the old European society   that we broke away from 200 years ago we don't  have an instant deference to rank in to academic   achievement we we are you know Tocqueville writes  about it that we tend to rely on our own kind of   inner common sense about a lot of things but it's  out of control it is completely out control and   it is now to the point where instead of people  relying on the common sense every every expert   opinion about anything leads to a resentful  argument from someone who feels disempowered   just by having that conversation and this is why  all of the experts failure when I was writing it   I called it the Holy Trinity of expert failure  or I was right people would say well hmm you   know until look your doctor may get things wrong  but do you think you're living longer Americans   are living longer under the care of doctors than  they lived you know 100 years ago under the care   of you know their aunts putting mustard poultice  on them is okay then you get the Holy Trinity of   exudate immuno filete amide Vietnam Challenger  yes execute there's a little chapter in the book   about how and why experts can be wrong we are  human beings we are fallible sometimes we're   even evil and mean and do bad things and fake our  credentials and kick the dog and argue with our   kids and they're you you will never fail to find  expert failure but as I say at the end of the book   in the end the only people that can remedy this  are the voters and the citizens of the developed   world because you do have the autonomy that you  think you don't you do have access to information   if you really are diligent about you know again  reading a newspaper or watching an actual evening   news broadcast this is this is within the power  of the ordinary citizen and experts have made   terrible mistakes they have cost lives I would  argue that on balance they probably save more   lives i one of the arguments against my piece was  a commentator in USA Today said and I kid you not   his actual line was looking around the past 50  years what have experts done for us I guess I   guess since you're still at war with Nazi Germany  and you have polio nothing but that is very much   the the the attitude that experts have to deal  with and I think that's partly why experts have   done something I blame experts for and that is  withdrawing from the public space they don't want   to have these kinds of arguments and I you know I  can I'm a little more thick-skinned about it and   so I'm glad to be there to have this discussion  with you but I understand it's a difficult   discussion on both sides and I look forward  to continuing with it you with it excellent   you know I'm so glad you brought up the issue  of control because I thought about that a lot   when I was reading your book and you actually  talked about it in the context of college but   you do you have this one line there are so many  things in here you want to just put on a pillow   or frame and hang you know on the wall in your  house but this one you said students but again   I think this goes further they develop a toxic  combination of insecurity and arrogance and so   there's the loss of control plus narcissism equals  you know sort of where we are right now do you   think that's accurate and what do you I think part  of the thing is aside from ourselves sort of going   out and trying to find better sources for things  what can be done well I think the for the first   thing people can do is and this is going to sound  strange coming from you know an expert who has   just given you 20 minutes of arrogant hectoring  about why you should listen to but a little more   humility on everybody's part that's just on the  part of experts but on the part of citizens as   well a little more and a little more good faith  I think we all not just experts and citizens we   all have to be nicer to each other we all have to  start from the assumption that we mean each other   well I can't tell you how many times that people  have since especially since the first versions of   the book came out people said well of course you  say these things you're an expert you're against   us and let's let's not you know let's not ignore  the aleph at the room the president ran against   experts he basically went out to middle America  and he said of experts are the people screwing   up your lives and I'll I'll get even with them I  will you know fix their wagon same thing happened   it's not just an American phenomenon same  thing happened during brexit the people who   were pushing the leaf campaign said and one of  them actually caught him living he said this is   a guy who was a lifetime British politician and  minister with an education from Cambridge okay   and he said I think the people have had quite  enough of experts I thought you mean like you   but there is this assumption going in that the  average citizen knows more than the expert and   that the expert is part of some nefarious not  even as a conspiracy theory but some kind of   nefarious you know near to do well kind of plan  to hurt you and I think that's really has to stop   that's part of what happens when people spend too  much time in front of their computer screens too   much time alone in front of their televisions too  much time not really talking to each other so the   first that those are the first two things I'd say  is a little more humility the way my old teacher   said you know repent and also a little more  goodwill in every conversation and give it's an   important point you bring up about about humility  because you say one of the attractive features of   a conspiracy theory is hero is empowering that  you can you talk a little bit about how you get   to be those a victim and a hero in a conspiracy  theory confession because conspiracy theories are   first of all let me just say I love conspiracy  theories I mean I read every book Robert Ludlum   wrote until he died I mean I just you know I was  a sucker for every spy movie during the Cold War   course I was a Russia specialist during the Cold  War so conspiracy theories for me were cabinet at   least in fiction I was a devoted x-files watcher  until it got kind of boring but what makes them   so attractive well think about it it explains all  the things in your life that are going wrong that   you can't explain you know why why why can't I get  a job why did my girlfriend break up with me why   do you know bad things happen to good people  whatever it is and it makes you heroic I know   secret things it makes you powerful within your  peer group to say I know special stuff it's kind   of the way that geeks in Washington I mean there  is no quicker way to quickly lose your cred this   is you know from my Washington days than to say  well I know stuff but classified I can't say you   ever use that to cut in an argument in a political  argument Washington DC people immediately tune you   out because that is a losers argument and it but  it's the same thing that people do to each other   how do I know well I you know have knowledge  and knowledge is power and it's unjust again   it's understandable conspiracy theories aren't  new they go all the way back through American   history through human history because we want to  be able to explain why bad stuff happens that is   beyond our control it's very comforting think of  it this way it's in some ways it's more comforting   to believe that 9/11 was an elaborate plot that  took immense resources of all kinds of smart   people than it is to believe that 19 guys got on  some planes with box cutters in a way that that's   more terrifying than a conspiracy because it means  anybody could do it it could happen again and so   you know it's funny I was thinking about this  book and when you read the book which is great   and you should buy it plenty back there when you  read the book I felt at times like like I was you   know become like felt sort of curmudgeonly Shuren  while I was reading the book so it was a lot of   word it's a word I it's been thrown at me a few  times while I get off my lawn feeling when you're   India I'm like yeah yeah then I'm like oh gosh  well what what am I thinking but it was it was   funny right around the time I was going through a  reading the book I was talking to someone I work   with at the news station and she was explaining  to me how a friend of hers had come to town and   sat her down and tried to you know and was telling  her how an executive producer you know does their   job and this is a person never stepped foot in a  newsroom before trying to tell her that's what we   were laughing earlier that mansplaining this is  all none none of this is really new to a lot of   women but but that that happened and I thought wow  it really I'm not over blowing it also is actually   you know a big deal but I wanted to ask you as  a national security expert as well what are the   implications you say it happens all over the globe  but what are the implications for for you know   real national security issues for for this thing  happening daily everywhere well first of all that   that's a great story because of pursuit you're  not crazy right you read the book in general   this guy and I was really in certain people would  read the book and say well people this guy people   just argue with this guy I mean he's obviously  just abrasive and difficult and and I am but it   really has you know people a surgeon told me when  I was writing this book he said thanks I'm so glad   you're writing this he said because I've got to  the point where I want to put all this stuff on   a tray and just push it across the table and say  you know what you do it ha ha he so I've had it   Diane Weinstein I'll say occlusive Diane Feinstein  was here doing her first town hall that she's done   since she's been in the Senate and at one point  one of the people in the audience was was yelling   something about Syria and she said she stopped and  said to him if you think you know more about Syria   than I do and I think what she said was come on  up to the stage but you couldn't hear her because   the applause what's allowed I think she said come  on up to the stage but it was like whoo I've been   on the Foreign Intelligence Committee for you know  however many years if you think you really elmore   so you admit you're part of the conspiracy yes I  have I mean and that's what happened so I'm now   in the book and the Foreign Affairs question  is just so crucial to our national security   in the book I talked I related a story of a 2014  well there's two polls in there and they're both   great stories but one of them is about Ukraine  and people were asked what should we do about   Ukraine and the people who had the strongest  views on Ukraine where the people least likely   to know where it was and by and by least likely  I mean and they were placing Ukraine in places   like South America the average respondent in a 24  this included a fair tranche of college graduates   or that they asked them where Ukraine was median  respondent in this poll was off by 1800 miles that   means that the single largest country in Europe  which is Ukraine not Russia because entirely   in Europe the single largest country in Europe  and Americans couldn't a fair number Americans   couldn't even put it on the right continent now  the other one was about a mischievious polls   actually to buy a group of liberal pollsters who  thought they were going to catch out Republican   it turns out that they dragnet at everybody into  looking stupid they were asked Americans how they   felt about whether we should bomb Agrabah and of  course most Republicans were in favor of bombing   Agrabah aggressive you know war mongers that they  are but it turns out a lot of Democrats had very   strong feelings about not bombing Agrabah it was  very important to not do that because they're much   more peaceful group of people Agrabah is the  country in the 1992 Aladdin film animated film   Aladdin doesn't exist it's a cartoon so what they  found out by accident was about half the people   they've polled had a strong opinion about bombing  a cartoon now on the road people would say well   you know you can cherry-pick these okay couple  of about two weeks ago The Washington Post had   a had a map and it's a map of everything from  the Caspian Sea pretty much out to the Pacific   and it's all covered with pink dots from Australia  to Azerbaijan up to Siberia and the cat what you   realized is every pink dot represented the guess  of an adult American respondent about where North   Korea is oh yes now what really struck me was the  people who put in Australia you just say well you   know these are people don't know where the car  is most of the time what struck me was how many   people got it on the Korean Peninsula had a 50/50  chance of putting it on the north side of a line   and got it wrong and it's the name is in the name  North Korea so what what implication does that   have for national security it means that people  are voting on very important issues and sending   demand messages to their elected representatives  based on not knowing stuff now one of the things   that I having worked in Washington and you  know being an educator people say you elites   particularly the elected representatives they  don't listen to us enough my argument is they   are listening to you too much that actually the  biggest problem of the United States right now is   that your elected representatives who were created  in a Burkean system of republican government where   they are supposed to add their judgment are in  fact doing what the public's telling them to do   of course people think NATO is obsolete and not  very important they have no idea NATO is they   have no idea where what you know how much the  United States pays for it give you a similar   example four hundred foreign aid most people in  America yeah some of foreign aid is wrapped cut   foreign aid slash it's huge respondents when you  ask them how much America devotes to foreign aid   the median respondent is anywhere between ten and  twenty five percent of the u.s. budget the real   number is less than three-quarters of one percent  five to ten percent of people interviewed about   this will tell you that foreign aid constitutes  at least half of the budget of the United States   now how can you have an intelligent interaction  with the voters when they think that ten to twenty   five or even fifty percent of the United States  budget is on is based on foreign aid you simply   cannot have the public informing policy because  they don't know what they're talking about it's   like the public asking you to finally ban unicorns  it's it's it's not an intelligent conversation so   this has dire implications when when we have a  rogue nuclear power that is destabilizing the   entire Pacific and perhaps the entire world the  fact that there are people who think it's in the   middle of the Caspian Sea is a problem so I think  if anything that level of ignorance about Foreign   Affairs means that national security policy  and foreign policy increasingly the distance   between the the public and the experts who have to  function and and just you know make the the make   American diplomacy run every day that distance is  going to get bigger because you simply cannot get   intelligent coherent answers out of the public  and what what do you do though I mean I mean if   somebody says you know no it's it's here it's down  here near Sydney what part of the problem is it   seems like you know in addition to so what we can  do ourselves to be better citizens in the world   like how do you even begin because I'm sure we've  all we've all got you know families you know I've   got a family member who is convinced that there's  you know a media conspiracy and I keep explaining   no I'm in the room right like when this issue I  promise you we're not getting together to figure   out how to get one over on you that's really  we're just trying to figure out who's available   for an interview frankly more than anything so  you know it's it's when you get run up against   a brick wall like that what on earth you know  can we do I had the problem you had once when   I was working in Washington one of my uncle's who  was a early he was actually an early Trump adopter   he was wearing a trump hat back in 2000 and he  because anybody that annoyed the establishment   me he was despite the fact that he was you know  pretty well-off and collecting Social Security   and had a stock portfolio all that stuff he wanted  to stick it to the bad guys and he said you know   they're all corrupt all of them and I said I'm  in Washington Oh everybody watching is corrupt   and I said I worked in Washington he said well  then you're corrupt - and I said you know he   just consistent and you all and he did because he  didn't know what else is saying you know I mean we   all went ok pass the potatoes you know just get  Pesa people asked me how do you deal with your   family about stuff like this and my answer is  always how much do you like your family because   you are not going to be able to deal with this  gently and this is actually an important question   about moving forward because a lot of folks have  read the book or people who are in the teaching   profession say how can we do this gently how can  we move people from you know here to there and I   said well you know in a classroom in particular  that's a different question I think though in   public and in personal relationships I've given  up on the gentle approach I just turned to people   and say you're just wrong it was wrong and you  know and I don't really care if it makes you mad   you know we're not going to have fundamental  disagreements about whether North Korea is is   whether there are kangaroos in North Korea we're  not we're not having that discussion and you're   wrong and if you think that's disrespectful I'm  sorry it's actually disrespectful to me to tell   me that I must begin from the assumption that you  know North Korea is in Australia is a reasonable   assumption and I think I've been arguing for I  think extra work about do they say well let me   go and check the Almanac I don't and rethink this  I don't know but I think one thing it's certainly   less wear and tear on me for one thing but also I  think one of the dangers in this is that when you   start to grant the when you start with me well  oh you believe Australia you know you believe   that North Korea is in Australia well okay that's  an important point and I understand and then now   you're just lost because then then you're on  the territory of that person who says and you   know now that we're talking about it I have some  sources over here from info wars and Breitbart and   you know lunatic calm and you know wherever  I'm getting them and I think it's important   for experts to just plant that flag right away and  say I promise not to condescend to you and I and I   know I fail at this on Twitter and social media I  can be really snippy and snarky and condescending   and I'll issue a blanket apology now but I'm going  to tell you all it's going to happen again but I   think while it's important not to condescend it's  important not to patronize either because I think   when somebody says you know I think North Korea is  in or Australia it's really insulting for somebody   who knows better to say that's so interesting  that's great no you're not doing that person any   favors and in fact in some ways you're being less  you're being disrespectful and you're certainly   failing in your job as an expert if someone said  to you you have a background in the law somebody   said to me after the 2010 elections well now that  the Republicans have taken the house they can   remove President Obama and I said no they can't I  said the Senate would and they said where are you   getting this where he read a Constitution of  the United States I had a guy stand up at a I   did a book a few years back on war and the United  Nations and that all my books are depressing and   a guy in the back raised his hand he said excuse  me professor are you telling me that one country   this actually happened is God as my witness are  you telling me that one country at the United   Nations can hold up everybody with one vote I said  yes that's ours I didn't start by saying well um   you know I said yes that's why I said yes that's  what I'm telling you and he and he got angry and   he said well how long has this been going on  and I said since 1945 and he said that and he   again there I have witnesses he said does our  Supreme Court know this and I said they've been   briefed about I don't think in a conversation  like that you could say well now where why do   you think that isn't true you just do your job  as an expert extended saying no that's not true   no you're wrong and if you want I'll explain it  to you but I'm not going to play pretend that you   somehow knew something coming into this because  that just wastes your time in a waste mine well   I wanted to I've got a question here got a couple  Wow look at all this so I I want to tell the guy   I want you to tell the Dartmouth story because  it's just one of my gosh yeah and but we also   have a question here that's related somebody wrote  in what are the two or three things you wish every   professor would say at the beginning of this  semester put especially those who are teaching   things like political science or philosophy what  do you think what do you wish they would say at   the beginning of semester but also if you would  tell that tell that Dartmouth story them well   the the I I can only tell you how I teach and  again I don't represent the the opinions of my   institutions including the War College I teach  military officers during the day and I teach   undergraduates at night so I get a full kind of  range of them in it would be military teaching   military students a little bit of a different  art it's very rarefied skill so it's not really   applicable here but certainly for 30 years that  I've been teaching undergraduates I always tell   them the same thing look you know I don't care  about your politics and something I don't care   in the sense I don't care about you as a person  but that I don't really care a you know I won't   hold anything against you because you're here to  form opinions not to have opinions verified you   know you're here to learn stuff and this will  go on long after you and I are done I what I   care about is that you do the assigned reading  that I'm giving you and that you give your best   effort in class you know I always tell my students  I'm happy to be Lake Wobegon all the students can   get an A you can all be above average if you put  the effort into it and no no nothing you say can   or will be held against you you know in this court  in this courtroom this classroom because I don't   run a classroom that way now there are professors  who do that who say you know I am the Oracle you   are stupid I think the bigger problem is actually  that remember the old Paper Chase remember that   movie professor kingsfield's here's a dime go call  your mother yeah I don't do that I wish I could   sometimes I would love to do that scene I think  the problem is actually in the other direction   and what I wish teachers would stop saying is oh  you know I learn as much for my students as they   learn from me no no if that's true you stink as  a teacher it's not an even exchange they should   be learning more from you than you're then you're  learning from them and so I you know I also go in   there and say argue with me all you want that's  why we're here that's what a classroom is for but   don't you know but don't you know walk out being  angry if I correct you that's my job my writing   students I teach a writing class I say I'm not  here to tell you your writing is awesome I'm here   to tell you what's broken and how to fix it and we  I am starting from the assumption that most of you   have stuff in your writing that's broken because  we all do and they just look at me so but I've   always had really good grades they say well that's  welcome to me so at Dartmouth when I first got to   Dartmouth in the 90s there was a legendary story  about a now pet passed away astrophysicists named   Robert and it had just one of my my own story I  just lost the gastro Robert Jastrow that's for   physicist and he was also a big fan of the FBI  program of Star Wars and a student Christmas   of the 80s and you know students wanted to argue  about this because Reagan was evil and Star Wars   was awful and I'm not a missile defense proponent  myself but you know Robert Jastrow was pretty   smart guy in his day and the student finally after  arguing with him about this over and over sat down   said well okay your guess is as good as mine and  Jastrow stopped him right there and he said no no   no my guesses are much much better than yours  and I think more more teachers should do that   I mean you know we are not in a classroom we are  participating in something very important together   but we are not peers teachers and students are  not peers and that is one of the most corrosive   ideas to creep into higher education in the past  48 40 years and it's really a bad thing well so   I have a question here and this is enclosed  they lack critical thinking skills isn't this   just a recourse of an established authority  who's outmoded and incorrect ideas have been   challenged well whoever said that is wrong no  critical thinking critical if you really want to   challenge the establishment critical thinking is  your strongest weapon rigid ideological resentful   close thinking is what lets people control your  life because once they figure out the pattern   once they figure out your cognitive map about the  things you love to believe it's easy to manipulate   you critical thinkers are the hardest people to  get over on because they're the ones that always   stop and ask another question even a question that  may be uncomfortable for them that to say that you   know critical thinking is just this whitewash of  oh stop asking questions no critical thinking is   the thing that says start asking questions  and don't be afraid of where they go and I   think that's a really important skill and it's  something that people don't want to do because   they because real critical thinking challenges  everybody I mean look I've written things where   I've had to change my mind this morning I was on  kgo this morning and Ron pulled out a piece that   I'd written in 2009 that has things in it but I'm  not really happy about anymore and I said stupid   experts always writing stuff down you know darn it  fully we could burn all the paper in the world but   you know it was ok to say look I said something  and I've thought about it and people argued with   me and I've changed my mind it's okay to change  your mind and you know I've started my career as   a young cold warrior there and I have now come you  know thirty thirty years later my last book before   this was about why we need to engage in unilateral  reductions and nuclear arms and get rid of the   damn things you can change your mind but that  starts by being open to changing your mind which   is the key to critical thinking I don't think you  should be so open-minded as the expression goes   that your brain falls out but this notion that  you know critical thinking is just a weapon of the   establishment no the critical thinking is what the  establishment insofar as one even exists in our   very modern time you know is is your best weapon  for dealing with whatever's coming over your TV   screen or through your radio or from some you know  middle-aged professor talking to you you know in   the middle of a room it's an important skill to  develop and again at the root of it is a certain   amount of humility and a dedication to logic and  empiricism no matter where it leads even when it   goes places you don't happen to like I've got a  couple questions here about the media we've got   one person asked how can trust be restored in the  media and another person asks a sort of related   question what new sources do you trust well you  right and so I actually this is I'll take the   second part first and say and some say something  that is going to make people's heads explode I   actually trust most sources in the media I've  worked a lot of journalists from and I've talked   with a lot of journalists from National Review to  Mother Jones across the spectrum by the way when   I worked in the Senate for a Republican senator I  subscribed to the nation and Mother Jones to keep   myself honest I read a member I read him regularly  I got I got you know all my other stuff so I got   conservative journals I made sure to subscribe to  at least two left-wing journals just to make sure   that I was keeping myself honest so that's one  piece of advice I think most journalists there   again they're experts they're human beings they  make mistakes is there there is spin there is bias   there there are nothing burgers that are made into  stories journalists make stupid mistakes every   day but I really believe that most journalists in  the United States of America really intend in the   Western world and in Russia people in where being  the journalist is a life-threatening occupation   they really are committed to getting out the truth  that is a set of facts that that then people can   read and make decisions on their own are there  are they're lousy journalists who spin stories   in the direction of their own confirmation bias  yes there are so what there are bad judges too but   that doesn't mean I wanna get rid of the judicial  system and that I don't trust most judges the fact   the matter is I my experience over the years and I  and I say this now I actually once had a beef with   a journalist who I felt ambushed me and misquoted  me and I I kind of this was a long time ago but   still practicing journals like I ran into her at  a conference and I kind of across the table I did   one of these you know ha ha ha and she went kind  of like shrugging like yeah I probably I could   have done that one better and I kind of screwed  you over and I'm sorry it happens and you know   what if you're big boys and girls and you're  willing to keep reading the news every day you   will be able to correct for that and to get the  basic facts out of almost any news story first   thing you should do no matter what form of news  you're reading is to make sure that you know that   you're reading the news section not the opinion or  the analysis section that's a big division right   there.i paper newspapers because you knew that  what was above the fold on the front page was a   factual representation as best they could get it  and on the back was guys like me bloviating about   what we think I still think most journalists try  to aim for that above the fold level of accuracy   and again I think you should approach it with a  certain amount of goodwill does the media today   did they hate president Trump yes there's  no argument with that there is no doubt that   America that the American media you know hates  the current administration do they at least try   to get the reporting right I think they do and I  think that's really important what do I read as an   old you know DC Hill rat I I read and I you know  think tanker and all that time I spent in DC I   started with Washington Post if you want to start  with the New York Times The Wall Street Journal   conversation actually had something so what do  you read and I said why I watching tonight DC   Beltway elitist I said well all right the New York  Times says New York ëletís I said The Wall Street   Journal capitalists I said in other words what  you're saying is you don't want to read anything   you want to go find stuff that you already agree  with and have somebody tell you it's right there   a lot you know the Boston Globe the LA Times the  what is in San Francisco the Chronicle right I   mean they're there they're thousands of newspapers  and journalistic sources all across this country   they can't all be lying to you and the best way to  get the best story is to read two of them you know   that you know there's old saying a man with two  watches never knows what time it is but I think   if you read two newspapers you can actually start  correct correcting for bias and it doesn't take   you that long because the other thing people  always say to me about this is why just don't   at the time yes you do just stop you do have the  time you would think if you think of all the time   in an average day you waste doing nothing you know  playing computer games you know or arguing people   on Twitter you can be reading a newspaper I start  my day with at least two newspapers but I'm a news   junkie but you know if the average American  starting with one that'd be great and read it   from front to back or from top to bottom on the  Internet don't pick through it this is the other   thing that's kind of interesting with the move to  paper from paper to electrons people don't start   with a book and read page one and then finish it  they go to the index or they do a search to see   what's in there that they're already interested in  they don't go to a newspaper to start at the top   and read the headlines and work their way down  through the sections they say what's in where's   the thing in here that I'm already interested  in that I want to hear about and I think that's   that's just a really bad way so it's not just what  to read it's how to read also okay so this person   wants to know would you be willing to debate  look it looks like it's Nicholas Nassim Taleb   solid or Scott Adams oh well you know Tala tickle  is Nassim Taleb now I have to talk about two other   guys whose work I don't like but I will because  I'm an expert and I'm engaging critical thinking   whoever wrote this Talib is the guy who wrote the  book the Black Swan and he says experts trying to   predict something is stupid the experts especially  in politics and in soft fields like you know other   than engineering that we're just selling you a  bunch of hooey and we don't really know we're   talking about he coined the term intellectual  yet intellectually yet idiot I mean Talib baat   has already said that he will never write for  Foreign Affairs again because they published me so   the question isn't whether I debate Tollett before  the column would debate me you're super important   I guess I'm I guess you know I just I gave him a  sleepless night you know I think columns part of   the problem to be honest with you Talib is one of  the people who has a very narrow expertise that   then he uses to say that every basically he's  Homer Simpson everybody is stupid but me and I   think that doesn't get us anywhere I mean that's  intellectual Neil ISM nobody knows anything except   the super you know narrow specialization public  intellectuals are all full of steam and predicting   is pointless and useless I have a long section  in the book about experts predict because you the   public you want us to and we get it wrong but you  know nobody wants to hear an expert on Russia say   listen I don't really have any idea what's gonna  happen um because I do have some idea what's going   to happen and we can do the best we can and we  can try to have a track record you know I got it   wrong about Putin I said you know maybe Putin will  work out the first year or two I said maybe he's   going to do some things he won't turn out to be  horrible I was wrong on the other hand people say   so you're wrong about that yeah on the other hand  I also predicted the Soviet coup six months ahead   of time because I had better chops from reading  Russian and Soviet newspapers than the average   person you know I mean we get things right we get  things wrong so I think talib just leads you down   a dead-end of everybody stupid nothing could be  predicted Scott Adams look you know Dilbert's one   of the greatest comic strip strips ever written  and I think as a political analyst Scott Adams   is a great cartoonist I quoted him in the book he  said tell me any issue in that a president needs   to know you know any issue in public policy that  I can't master after talking for an hour with an   expert now talk about hubris talk about you know  lack of humility if you think I can get you up to   speed on Russia policy and arms control nuclear  stuff in an hour then you know then one of us is   really bad at this people like Adams have a notion  that expertise can be transferred like copying   files from a disk you know like I just have a  lot of random information and if I just kind   of you know plug into you and hit copy an hour  later you like yeah I got this and that leaves   out things like judgment experience learning from  being wrong interacting with other experts being   part of a community that kind of checks itself  all of that stuff goes out the window so you   know I don't really have any interest in debating  either of these guys because I don't I just don't   take either of them that seriously all right on  that note one quick reminder you're listening   to the Commonwealth Club of California program  and our guest is Tom Nichols professor at the   National professional security affairs of the u.s.  Naval War College who is discussing the subject   matter of his new book the death of expertise  I'm Melissa Kane you can hear the Commonwealth   Club programs on the radio and catch up with  program videos on the club's YouTube channel   plus find us on Facebook and Twitter I have  a question here that says and I suspect the   answer is yes but the answer the question is is  this trend causing experts to lay low like are   we losing an important voice in this debate when  experts sort of say forget it and so what's left   is is open yes a lot of non experts yes they're  not you're not losing those experts so much as   you are well you are losing some experts because  again you know college is turning into something   different than college and expertise is turning  into this idea that it's something you can gain   from a four-year program and then you have it like  being an electrical engineer and that's not even   true among engineers I mean again experience how  do you become a master electrician other master   electricians have decided you're that good it's  different than becoming electrician becoming a   master you know having enough time in your field  and I think people are saying I don't want to do   that I want shortcuts kids who go into journalism  for example say I don't you know I'm not writing   obituaries for the you know small-town newspaper  I want to graduate from college with a degree in   journalism and I want to go right to writing for  the New York Times and you know unfortunately that   leads to a lot of really dumb stories that force a  lot of really dumb Corrections because that's just   a bad idea what experts the existing experts are  doing however is choosing only to talk to other   experts they don't want to be sitting here in  a group of lay people and and you know fielding   questions because they find it exasperatingly a  find you know they think that they're under attack   and frankly in this political climate they are and  that's really dangerous for democracy because as   I say at the end of the book the collapse of  expertise in a republic is dangerous for two   reasons one is that you simply stop listening to  experts and you get mob rule right and nobody you   know the amazing thing is in a democracy usually  there's a lot of misery when people get exactly   what they want you know HL Mencken once said  democracy is the theory that the working man   knows what he wants and deserves to get it good  and hard so that's the danger of that because   then things fall apart the other danger and I  think the one we're actually heading toward is   technocracy where experts simply say you know what  talking to the average person it's over their head   they don't want to hear it it's too difficult  we'll just talk to each other and we'll just   make things run and we won't ask them because we  can't get a coherent answer out of them and it's   too difficult and it's too aggravating and you  know we'll just we'll just do it and we'll keep   it on the bill what's the alternative to have the  expert engage and you know the analysts Twitter   war or you know with a with people well that's  been my solution um well I but I and this is   where I hide experts I say you know what if you  want to wear that badge of expert if you want to   you know then I guess you have to get you know  you're going to get your hands dirty and you're   gonna have to talk to your client which is society  and I do think experts have to get out there and I   do think we have to rehabilitate the notion of the  public intellectual regardless of what people like   like palate think about it that you know that  people who have not just expertise in a subject   but kind of broad training in critical thinking  how to think through a problem how to help the   public kind of weigh costs and benefits and work  their way through complicated issues but you know   experts don't want to do that because then they  get called a lot of ugly names and here we are   are we spoiled I mean it's so is some of this mean  you say you give an example of one yes here well   one example you give is example if you get into an  elevator right you don't have to think oh I hope I   make it you can get in and say okay well it's been  certified and some nerds have put this together   in a way that it's going to work and so you don't  have to actually sort of think through that and so   you know you can you know sort of go through your  day relying on everything running and people would   say oh well the Ella dice ed in the book I say you  know the certificate in an elevator doesn't say   good luck up there it says that this has been you  know examined but in people said well that's again   stem great engineers know there are Civic codes  there are things that your legislators had to do   from the city council to the state legislature in  Sacramento all the way back to Washington DC to   make sure that an elevator is safe it involved  people who have expertise in physics to people   who have expertise in policymaking and legislative  drafting that's how that got done that's why you   can go up the side of a building and not have to  to pray the rosary okay so yes I would argue that   the death of expertise and I've said this many  times is a disease of affluence for example the   anti-vaccine business I imagine in this area as I  say look out I don't know I hope there's a given   escort to the door but the fact the matter is  people can people are can get can have this kind   of sense of empowerment about refusing vaccines  when everybody's healthy that's the kind of thing   you say well I mean it's almost like a catch-22 I  don't need these vaccines who's ever seen measles   right we don't need it while totally missing  the point that you know or smallpox now being   of a certain age I gladly took I was vaccinated  both for smallpox and polio because there were   people within my family that I knew personally  that had had polio and within our living memory   who had had smallpox nobody was real nobody the  thought of I mean every time I saw my cousin limp   from polio I was you there was enough vaccine in  the world to give me as a kid that now with all   of that gone people said well oh you know this  is again it's personal empowerment some doctor   told me this but what doctors know I've had people  tell me doctors don't anything about heart disease   don't I think about the vaccines or infectious  diseases again you can see why that surgeon   said you know what you've got a point here do it  yourself and so I think that you know what will   end that a pandemic yeah it's going to ask you  I mean in terms of you you right here we've come   full-circle from a pre-modern age in which folk  wisdom filled unavoidable gaps in human knowledge   then a period of development based heavily  on specialization and expertise and now we're   serving this post-industrial information oriented  world to you know it seems like the reason why we   went from you know using a you know folk wisdom  to expertise with you know problems they you sort   of collectively have to solve and you realize oh  this you know these leeches aren't just going to   solve everything we got to do some other stuff  is that what it's going to take again a lot of   pain to realize you actually do need a master  electrician you actually do need a vaccine or   I hope not that kind of specialist I hope not I  wrote the book because I hope not and I wanted   to start that argument ahead of time but if you  think about the populism of the 1930s that's one   of the reasons that experts were ascendant in  the 1940s 50s and 60s you know people wonder   how do we get to this place where experts are  so powerful well because we delegated to them   rebuilding the ashes of a completely destroyed  world in which 65 million people were killed   because of you know in large part because of  a lot of populist nonsense about not joining   the league nations and economic protectionism and  mass movements and and then so experts afterwards   said okay why don't we build a global system of  trade and cooperation and alliances to maybe not   let that happen again it you know the same the  same people who think experts are dastardly are   probably people that think well you know yet here  we have a United Nations I mean we have you know   global trade agreements we have the World Health  Organization those are all important things and I   don't want us I don't want to see us have to do  that all over again and I'm hoping we have that   discussion first while there's still peace and  prosperity and good health before we we stumbled   down into that darkness again Wow on that note  we've reached the point now program where we are   going to say thank you to dr. Tom Nichols here  for coming up and being with us today he's the   professor of national security affairs at the  US Naval War College and the author of the new   book the death of expertise the campaign against  established knowledge and why it matters thank   you to our audience both here and also on radio  television and the internet we also want to remind   everyone here that copies of dr. Nichols's book  are for sale and he'll be pleased to sign them   in the in this room following the program i'm  melissa cain of CBS v CBS v KPIX and now this   meeting of the Commonwealth Club of California  the place where you're in the know is adjourned Oh

Channel: Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California

Views: 10,836

Keywords: Tom Nichols, Professor of National Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War College, Author, The Death of Expertise, facts, Melissa Caen, Political Analyst, CBS, San Francisco, Commonwealth Club of California, internet

Id: 8GfX6mQn4S8

Length: 66min 10sec (3970 seconds)

Published: Mon Jun 05 2017