The Swine Flu? Pah, just Media Hype!

did you know that 40,000 people 40,000 die each year in America alone from seasonal flu and that there have only been about ten recorded deaths from the recent swine influenza outbreak and that many have advanced this most notably Ron Paul and very vocally his supporters as a reason for why this swine flu thing is all media hype explained completely out of proportion and that really it's not that big of a concern the argument has several issues most notably historic in that it says valid today this sort of argument is as valid today as it was in 1970 the big problem being is them in 1918 there was the Spanish flu pandemic influenza pandemic and it killed about 50 million people comparable to the entire death toll of World War two and that too started out by killing ten people that was it started out as a mild influenza didn't have a particularly high mortality to it and then it could be tainted him something more aggressive and spread through the world's population killed 50 million people the second problem a new segment is it lacks a certain acknowledgement of the hazard of contagious diseases most viruses most seasonal viruses seasonal flu sorry most people have some native immunity to them so if one person with the flu comes into contact with for maybe only one will actually develop the virus and this can go on to generation to generation three four and five such that after five generations you have a total of maybe five people with this seasonal talk now this is the sort of thing that comes 40,000 people each but those 40,000 tend to be the weak and the sick people who were hanging on anyway how is this different from a pandemic well with a pandemic no one has any native immunity to it such as in the fullest generation all the people who come exposed to it develop the virus and each one of those comes into contact with say four people and such that a generation two you have 16 generation 3 you have another 64 generation 4 you have 256 the generation 5-year at 1024 which means in total after five generations here you have about 1300 cases of the virus versus five and this is the key difference this is the key difference between the seasonal influenza and a pandemic right the Panda is that the fact that that both influences is almost a point of complete irrelevance the fact that this one kills 40,000 a year is a point of almost complete irrelevance the problem is this one has pandemic potential and not only does it a pandemic potential it's unknown if this thing will actually mutate into something that has a significant mortality to it and just to put those a wall into harsh perspective if this was the bird flu the avian flu that we were looking at and not the swine flu the bird flu currently has a mortality rate of about 50% that's about 50% of those who contracted died so there is significant hazard in always there is significant hazard in the pandemic that you don't get out the seasonal influenza let's put some some rough time scales on this so it says about five days per generation which means that this is about twenty five days would have been a month so after a month you can can go from one case 4,000 cases alright one case 4,000 in a month after two months you're up into the millions after three months you're up in four billions which is comparable to the world's population so whereas in this case of course you would have 15 cases after 15 days sorry after 15 combinations so what can you do about this well the first is of course as an individual you need to understand how viruses are spread the main mechanism is people get infected with them they cough them out those go everywhere people and touch them they touch their face touch their mouth gets into the respiratory system and they become infected so the simple hygiene protocols are don't touch things don't avoid lots of people in relatively confined spaces and of course if you actually develop it yourself try not to spread the germs over spread the virus everywhere okay and by following these simple things like washing your hands let's just say foreign state apartment into instead gained for Cuba the generation against its rate such that after one generation there are only three people who have it after two generations nine three generations 27 four generations it's gonna be about eighty five generations is going to be about 240 so just by following simple hygiene procedures over five generations you can reduce the number infected with the virus from a thousand to that 250 so relatively minor things can have significant impact on the spread of the virus the second thing you can do is you can have government organizations that have preparedness for this sort of thing and the most obvious one would be is si si you can deploy this is ten days two generations is about 10 days and the current one the current virus you know this from the recent swine flu outbreak is that the virus can spread worldwide very easily in ten days but let's just say that you'll have a government organization that is if ready for this and can respond within ten days and they actually managed to isolate and mostly contain the disease at that point they put all those resources into and cases whereas if you are actually left your response time till the end of the month then you have 100 times as many cases to deal with in containment object becomes much hard but let's say that you actually mostly shut it down let's say that one case gets through the negative 3 & 9 so by having government preparedness the total cases on this line here are about 20 versus 240 if there was no government preparedness for those and also you can make a very good argument for at this point that your chances of contracting the virus depend on the health care of those around you a case can be made that in the event of a pandemic social healthcare a you giving away health care to everyone for free isn't so much a matter of philanthropy as a matter of salt preservation and that if you actually have people out there in society who can't get any health care or are afraid that they can't afford it then they these people enhance the propagation of the biunder through the population a third way that you can help reduce the potential spread of the virus is through countering disinformation and one of the most egregious ones I've come across as a guy called Alex Jones who says the virus is all part of Illuminati conspiracy to control people's minds and that really people don't need to be concerned about it it's all the government trying to generate fear to controlling and I find that egregious on so many levels in that first of all no one ever releases these viruses into the environment once they're in the environment they can mix with other viruses you've lost complete control of them right no one releases viruses into the environment deliberately the second is of course this is to say that one person in fault buys into this conspiracy thing and decides they're not going to follow any of these hygiene things they're just designed to generate fear let's take this guy here so let's say for the sake of argument the to follow the hygiene procedures but this guy's a conspiracy guy so the first generation you have two cases at the next generation you have four in the next you have 8 16 and 32 which means in total here you're about 50 cases of the virus versus five and that's just from having 25% of the population reject these safety procedures because they think it's all a conspiracy their ignorance is a hazard to us all so what's the take-home message from all of us well firstly do not underestimate the hazard of a pandemic simply because a pandemic does not arrive every time there is the potential of one sooner or later something like this will lightly sweep through the population of the planet and in such an event there are things that you can do to minimize the potential spread of that virus those are actually having knowledge of how viruses spread such that you can minimize them yourself and the second one is you can actually have infrastructure in place that can help shut down the virus early and minimize the potential spread of the virus so it all boils down to knowledge enables prevention and preparation reduces potential hazards

Channel: Thunderf00t

Views: 99,237

Rating: 4.6339173 out of 5

Keywords: The, Swine, Flu, phase, pandemic, imminent, influenza, H1N1, false, hoax, illuminati, mind, control, conspiracy, outbreak, usa, united, states, prevention, WHO, world, health, organization, CDC, center, for, disease, hygiene, NHS, Congressman, ron, paul, national, service, tamiflu, potential, dangerous, hazardous, bird, avian

Id: W57pnVhEhjU

Length: 10min 15sec (615 seconds)

Published: Tue May 05 2009