The ruse with the dirty bomb: A sign of Putin's weakness?

as Ukraine presses its counter-offensive against Russian occupying forces in the South Moscow is doing some nuclear muscle flexing conducting military exercises simulating response to a nuclear attack and accusing Kiev of planning to launch one Russian forces in the southern region around her son have been moving injured people and civilians out of the city but it's unclear whether the troops themselves are bracing for battle or preparing to flee meanwhile Moscow claims kiev's getting ready to detonate a dirty bomb laced with radioactive material a charge Ukrainian leaders deny saying Russia's describing its own intentions so on to the point we're asking the ruse with the dirty bomb a sign of Putin's weakness [Music] thank you hello and welcome to to the point it is a great pleasure to greet our guests Jessica Berlin is a geostrategic expert with the German Marshall fund Gustav gressel is senior policy fellow and Military expert at the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations and joining us online from Bonn is my Ukrainian colleague Roman godzarenko he's working for DW's Russia desk and Roman I'd like to go uh to straight away to the situation in Hassan because there's mixed signals emanating from that region where Russian occupiers uh have at the same time been sending dire messages and about an impending Ukrainian attack and at the same time also appear to be digging in bracing for battle so can you give us your assessment of what is going on there and also of why Hassan is so strategically important well let me start with this uh late um latest the point that you've mentioned uh Hassan is extremely important for both sides it's important for Russia because um it is the only point in Ukraine which Russia managed to well manage Russia managed to cross the nipro river the biggest river in Ukraine which divides the country in two halves in east and west and it is very difficult to cross it's a natural barrier and Russia managed to cross nipro in the early days of the invasion and from from this from this place it is planning to go further west to towards mikolai which is a neighboring City and Odessa which is an extremely important report for Ukraine on the Black Sea and um if Russia succeeds Ukraine would lose access to the Black Sea so it is extremely important for Russia to hold her Zone to be on that right Bank of the nipro river and it is extremely important just from the opposite side for Ukraine to to get it back and uh it is also important because it's very close to Crimea to the annexed Crimea or where Russia m is uh is getting supplies with fresh water from that nipple River it is also from the region of her son so it is it is um the focal point of this war for both sides just just shortly I think we are we are at a point where Ukraine would like to um continue its offensive which it started a few weeks ago or a few months ago the preparations but it is very slow and Russia is on the Tipping Point Russia wants to defend her so not to lose it and is preparing to defend it but it could be forced to leave it so just very quickly if you would when could the battle for her son take place because as you say the Ukrainian forces haven't made real advances in the last few weeks well there is a rather small window of opportunity for Ukraine here um I think three or four weeks because the Russian mobilization started in late September and we'll need some time to show effect on the battlefield at the moment ukrainians have a chance to start the assault on Hassan um but then that weather and Russian mobilization could stop Ukraine or make it more much more difficult to retake the city so um at the moment we are at a situation which is very volatile which very Dynamic and it is impossible to predict Which side will win in the coming weeks Gustav the head of Ukraine's own defense intelligence agency has downplayed expectations that or hopes that uh Hassan might soon be liberated saying that he does not see the Russians truly preparing to leave is that just expectation management do you think or is it realistic no it will be a hard fight I mean Rush is there are defensive preparations you see them taking lines outside of the city you see them preparing some of the outskirts the buildings to reinforce them to sustain shelling and to to basically turn houses into fortresses on the other side there are swapping troops there is now one ponton bridge that operates across the nipple River it is used for quotation mark evacuation to have civilians Crossing that bridge all the time because as long as civilians are crossing ukrainians won't fire at this bridge this bridge then is also used for military purposes that is bringing out experienced personal especially the paratroopers because they need them elsewhere and bringing in freshly mobilized uh fresh troops these fresh troops are of course weaker less experienced less tough but of course they have to perform static defense that's tactically not very difficult um so Russia is supposed to by the way saying they are cannon fodder of course they are Russian Russian mobilized forces are Cannon for that and Russia will hold this city as long as it can afford with these troops but on the other hand they uh they put their Elite forces elsewhere in order to have again an operative Reserve to contain Ukrainian counter offense if that are expected elsewhere to to follow Jessica meanwhile Ukrainian president zielinski is saying that his people should prepare for what he called the most difficult winter in their history that hardly sounds like he's expecting Victory anytime soon well the difficulty of this winter goes far beyond just the battle for Herson as we've seen in the past weeks Russian military has been targeting civilian infrastructure as well as military targets destroying power plants heating infrastructure so right now 30 percent of the countries without power and the rest of the country is experiencing planned rolling blackouts to protect the grid and conserve power and right now it's October it's getting cold but the worst the coldest is still of course yet to come so this will be an incredibly difficult winter both on the battlefield but also on the home front and we have an example of the concerns about the sensitivity of infrastructure let us take a closer look now at the situation in the region around Hassan which Russia occupied in the early days of the war and illegally annexed at the end of September and as we heard just now Hassan is a strategic prize for whomever controls it the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south is apparently putting the Russian occupiers under increasing pressure images from a Russian State broadcaster administrators loyal to Moscow are transporting people from the city of Kelso across the nipro river they call it evacuation in anticipation of Ukrainian attacks Kiev speaks a forced resettlement Castle is strategically important if it becomes Ukrainian again Russia would not be able to advance further west as planned Ukraine in turn would Advance toward Crimea Russian troops west of the nepro have been in a difficult position for some time as the Ukrainian Army has destroyed important supply routes now the massive kahofka dam is at risk of becoming a weapon of War since March the facility has been in the hands of the Russians Ukraine accuses them of mining the reservoir and warns that if it were blown up it would cause a deadly flash flood for hundreds of thousands of people the Russian side claims that it is Ukraine that wants to blow up the dam itself how we his Putin's Army in Castle and let me put that question straight to Roman we heard uh Gustav telling us just now that in fact Russia has been removing some of its most experienced officers and troops and replacing them with these newly recruited inexperienced uh young men what do you think how long could such forces uh defend uh occupied Hassan well it is difficult to assess because we do not know the whole picture how many um are mobilized how many are experienced of the Russian troops there from what I hear on Russian State media there is this feeling that we will not give up we will not pull back we will defend her song because it is so much so important for Russia when you think of Russian history just to remind you it is the city which where the Russian Black Sea fleet was built the first ships were built there so um it was important in the 18th 19th century for Russia so uh you hear such tones some people even compare harson the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is so when you hear this it is hardly imaginable that Russia is preparing to withdraw from the city so I think they'll just um trying to win some time some weeks when they have more forces and run the weather with the winter coming it will make it more difficult for Ukraine to move forward forward Jessica let me come to these claims swirling around the hakovka dam which is at a key a hydroelectric plant you mentioned infrastructure earlier on near Hassan president zielinski said that his government has information that the Russians have mined the structure and Russia meanwhile is accusing Ukraine of planning to attack the dam so are these just verbal tactics designed to throw the other side off balance or do you think this discussion signals a major escalation in the offing was a bit of both of course it's part of the information War but it undermines the it shows the undermining of the Russian military tactically if Russia is needing to destroy infrastructure if they're threatening to uh if they're putting out rumors of dirty bombs or threatening the dam which of course would not only destroy a major power source but would also flood an area where hundreds of thousands of people live this would be a catastrophic attack if this infrastructure were destroyed they're showing that tactically on the battlefield they're weakened and therefore needing to use these kinds of threats to try to get Western support to back off this is really what's what's going on at play so it is a credible threat it is something we have to take seriously but it's also something that's being used to shape The Narrative of fear and deterrence in this war because of staying with uh the Strategic and tactical side here destroying the dam would create major flooding as we heard in the report and as Jessica has pointed out it would also destroy an important power plant put it utterly out of commission who would have any real strategic Advantage uh from that given the fact that the Russians are the occupiers don't they also need this damn and this power plant to remain uh in operation the Russians don't need the power plant uh but they need the dam for the water for Crimea that the channel That supplies Crimea is uh is built from that Reservoir as long as water levels are high enough you can tap water and pump it or let it flow downwards to to Crimea so they will not destroy it unless they feel they have to of course if they completely lose the Battle of Cresson if there's sort of things are Beyond repair for the Russian army they might explode it just to to drown a lot of Ukrainian soldiers and to drown Ukrainian assault forces equipped with heavy equipment which for Ukraine is irreplaceable tanks are irreplaceable because they get none from the West infantry fighting vehicles are irreplaceable so so there is a military purpose they would also drown some of their own Defenders but if you know if the situation is lost they don't mind for that the concern arising due to the war of words over the dam pales in comparison to unease over Russia's nuclear muscle flexing Russian defense minister Sergey shoigu recently called his counterparts in the U.S France and turkey to voice his alarm about what he called possible provocations by Kiev involving we just heard it mentioned the use of a dirty bomb that is a bomb laced with radioactive substances that Kiev would then seek to blame on Russia we have concrete information about those institutions in Ukraine their scientific institutions that are capable of creating this very dirty bomb the information we have verified through the appropriate channels is that this is not a groundless accusation if Russia calls and says that Ukraine is allegedly preparing something it means one thing Russia has already prepared all this I believe that the world should react as harshly as possible now if Russia continues to up the ante and prepare for the next level of escalation it must recognize that the world will not allow it is good stuff before we start talking about all what about what this means just tell us please what exactly is a dirty bomb and what kind of harm could it cause a dirty bomb is a conventional bomb basically explosives and the Splinter filler is not metal to cause physical damage it's made up composed of radioactive material that will then spread in the immediate environment where the bomb is detonated it's a usually it is intended as a terrorist weapon it has no military value it has no destructive potential it has and no impact on military operations as such it would be like a Minefield it would block a certain terrain for movements but that's it would it leave a radioactive effect that would essentially make that zone uninhabitable or unusable for sometimes it would make a certain Zone unusable of course it depends on the size on the composition on the way it is detonated on the altitude security is detonated but it would basically make a smaller area are uninhabitable but that's it it's of course the long-term effects are worse than the Minefield because it's easier to clear a Minefield but the immediate military effect is that of a Minefield so next fact-based question is there any evidence that Ukraine does have such a weapon and might be planning to use it this is all bogus nonsense there is no preparation for making a such a bomb and it would make absolutely zero military sense for you Ukraine to even think about that it is complete propaganda and yeah and Jessica what do you think about Russia might they have a dirty bomb and might they be considering using it it wouldn't be the first time that Russia has accused someone else of doing something that in fact it uh itself uh plans to do and we do know Russia just conducted a military drill simulating a response to a nuclear attack but that in fact included uh a nuclear uh strike uh in response so what do you think well precisely as Gustav said the the proposition from lavrov that Ukraine would be doing this and planning this is completely farcical it's complete bollocks but from the Russian side this is a signal this is a threat we have these in our arsenal we would be willing to use them at the end of the day this is a further sign of the weakness of the Russian position on the battlefield this threat is meant to change the narrative and to move the fear of Western governments and Western voters to try to reduce support for Ukraine it's another classic example of Russia pushing a lie some fantastic nonsense into the media then it gets picked up reported on discussed doesn't mean it do they not and they create in this way and help shape the narratives across the world but what we actually need to see here is that this is another lie another threat from a government whose word has become meaningless so let's talk about what effect that narrative is having Roman uh how are people people in Ukraine reacting to poutine playing and and of course his henchmen playing the fear card well um people remain calm but still they are worried and for the first time since the beginning of this War I saw that people really think that it is possible for Russia to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine something people denied in the beginning they didn't believe it can happen but um after Russia annexed those four regions of Ukraine two in the East and two in the South um after Russians threatened to use um all it can including nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues to fight on the territory which Russia now believes is Russian so people were discussing this they were thinking about their plans what they would do how they would protect their children their families the government made some some remarks on that and said stay calm but you should know what to do there were preparations of shelters in Ukrainian cities for that case but still on the large scale I would say that Ukrainian remain rather skeptical they don't believe that Russia would do such a thing because it is too dangerous for Russia itself Russia is not so far away and to detonate a nuclear bomb or to bomb Ukraine with a nuclear weapon be it a tactical weapon or any other kind um it would mean it is too high a risk for Russia itself or its neighbor Belarus agree with that assessment as he mentioned uh Vladimir Putin has said that he is prepared to use any weapon in Russia's Arsenal to defend Russian territory and now that he has annexed her son and several other regions he considers those to be Russian territory on the other hand U.S intelligence Services say that they do not see evidence that Russia's nuclear posture has changed so what are you expecting to the extent that you can assess while at second U.S assessment we have very closely watched the preparation of the nounuclear exercises we've very closely watched a test of a nuclear drone Russia has tested in the previous month and we could very well trace the movements of visible material of reactor cores Etc so we know when Russia moves something and if Russia moves something we can pick up or the Americans can pick up the red telephone and make a call but Russia will make nuclear noise and it does so because it knows that this is the only convincing argument they can make to deter the west from supporting Ukraine and unfortunately we are providing them with evidence that this augment works Chancellor Schultz himself said numerous times that he doesn't want to lead Germany into World War that world war needs to be avoided he is succumbing to the fear card Biden himself did that he has a very very untalented wording in his own articles and speeches uh there are there is noise in the white house that is to be taken sort of that the Americans are even taking is much too seriously and that we give too much room to this kind of intimidation they see the Russians see that we still hold back decisive military equipment for Ukraine so they see that the fear-mongering works and so they do more of that it works for them we heard president zielinski there saying the West must harshly react uh Jessica we did hear uh President Biden saying that he has communicated directly to the Russians that it would be a grave mistake in his words to resort to any type of radioactive weapon we heard the foreign Ministers of France the UK and the U.S also is sending very clear messages but is it enough no those words need to be backed up with hard actions more weapons for Ukraine more offensive weapons for Ukraine they need tanks they need more air defense and the Western Partners need to give it to them this is the only thing that Putin will react to he's watching the messaging coming out of Washington out of Berlin out of Brussels very closely and the speeches have zero effect on him the only thing that will change the dynamic in this war and give Putin a same taste of some of the fear and intimidation that he is so successfully spreading across NATO is to show that we are delivering results quickly and that Western support will help Ukraine secure a decisive Victory within the coming year but unfortunately the the speeches and the comments yes of course it's important to say if you make this step the results for you will be catastrophic but we need to back that up with action in real time and giving the ukrainians the support they need to stand up to the Russian offenses and a further point just on this entire narrative even the fact that that we are now breaking apart and talking about the Russian dirty bomb stories is this is a part of showing how effective this strategy is they in a way are able to shape The Narrative of this war by taking these kinds of proactive steps by putting stories out there and we need to become collectively across the pro-ukraine alliance much more effective in simply dismissing these these statements out of hand but isn't that also what we're doing when we media talk about these issues don't we need to give people the facts about for example what a dirty bomb is and is not sure break down the facts let people know but I think the the leading Point needs to be that we don't even give lavrov the media air time when he's putting this stuff out there that's it's part of the problem we we're treating the Russian narratives on equal footing as the statements coming out of Kiev and that's a mistake let me just bring in a few viewer uh comments uh in the very little remaining time that we have we received several comments from YouTube viewers in response to last week's show for example this one at this point this conflict is no longer about just Ukraine it seeks to answer the basic questions conditions with nuclear weapons blackmail those Nations that don't and you better believe China and North Korea are watching this closely and another viewer says this viewer is fintucks the thought that letting Russia get its will would make the West somehow safer or make things better in general is completely out of touch with reality Roman do you think that clearly these are viewers who share the consensus here on the panel but do you think that citizens in the West can remain steadfast in in view of the ruse that the Russians are using well most of them can yes there is a minority which is susceptible to such Russian propaganda but most of them can and they will yes and very briefly to uh our our guests here in the studio our title was the roost with the dirty bomb assigned to Putin's weakness gusta weakness absolutely quickness thank you very very much to all of you for being with us uh once again on to the point thanks to our viewers for uh joining us and please do check out our show on YouTube and send us your comments we'd love to hear them so please do share them below take care and goodbye for now [Music]

Channel: DW News

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Id: Lc00qspvS1A

Length: 26min 14sec (1574 seconds)

Published: Thu Oct 27 2022