Hezbollah leader warns Israel about the cost of a war in Lebanon | DW News

the leader of the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon Hassan nzela has threatened a fight with no rules if Israel launches a fullscale war against his group he also said EU memb Cyprus would be a legitimate Target in any future War if it continues its military cooperation with Israel the statement followed Israel's announcement that its military has approved a plan for an operation in southern Lebanon the latest strikes on Lebanon Israel and the militant group Hezbollah have been trading crossb attacks almost daily now they have taken steps with the potential for a fullscale conflict Israel has approved what it calls operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon we've made absolutely clear that one way or another diplomatically or through uh military means uh our our northern border the north of our country will our Israeli Sovereign territory will be made safe for Israel's population Israel's people to return there hezbollah's leader Hassan nasala responded by promising a fight with no rules they have to wait for us on the ground in the air and in the sea we have said this before and I will say this again today if the wars imposed on Lebanon the resistance will fight without control without rules and without a ceiling the crossborder exchanges of fire began after the October seven terrorist attack by Hamas the UN says more than 400 people were killed in Lebanon in such strikes including dozens of civilians on the Israeli side the reported casualties amount to at least 25 soldiers and civilians Hezbollah says it is ready to deescalate but to do so it wants something that has proven difficult to achieve alastin ceasefire in Gaza well let's examine this with from the Washington Institute for NE East policy welcome to the day um is a fullscale military confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah on the ground in the air and in the sea as Hassan nzala put it is that more likely now hi how are you H thank you for having me um my short answer and I'll explain is no uh still I believe still that it's unlikely for the simple reason uh that both parties do not have uh an interest in a full scale war and just let me explain why from hasb Allah's side they have many many many challenges that make them feel that they cannot afford a fullscale war one this is not their War their job today is to protect Iran's interests that is the Iranian regime and its nuclear program once the Iranians feel that they are directly threatened they will use hasah as an insurance policy or they will unleash them if they feel that it's necessary this is not the time for Iran hezbollah's War this is Hezbollah wants to keep it calculated and also they do have military challenges they do not have the war budget they do not have the uh Commandments they do not have a proper Commander with a vision that would lead the war and this is just not their war on the Israeli side this is a this what's happening today is both parties are trying to reestablish deterrence after months of the conflict the Israelis are definitely more interested in war and they have more capabilities to uh set back however there are two important issue three important issues for Israel that are deterring them so far from a fullscale war one which is the most important one is that they still not 100% sure that the US wants another front with the in the region another war in the region before the presidential elections in America in November and this support is needed by Israel in order to launch a war that GZA will look like a tiny uh uh war in in front of a big Lebanese war that would drag in all the Shi militias Iran back militias in the region and could very well develop into a regional War uh that would drag the us into it and the US does not want that so a political Military Support by the US is a challenge two the Israel needs to finish Gaza take a breather restock re uh rethink and today what they're doing actually they are targeting hasbullah without the risk of thousands of uh prec Precision missiles attacking Israel and causing more displacements so it's kind of not ideal situation but I think it's more effective than going into a war the rhetoric escalation that we're seeing today is more I think is to reestablish deterence and force the other side to stop or to accept a certain compromise or a deal that is proposed by the Americans it's more of a a flexing muscles and showing what can be done in case of a war okay so th this this in your analysis this is about the the the this this ceasefire deal that that Joe Biden announced to the world a couple of weeks ago this is this is positioning exactly I think this is positioning this is preemptive measure rather than uh a reactive measure this is like what hasah is doing is trying to pre prevent the war by increasing the rhetorical escalation they are trying to say that we haven't used everything that we have we haven't targeted everything that we can Target and today they he added Cyprus to the list but it's not really just about Cyprus it's really about the eastern Med Eastern Mediterranean and it's really about Europe it's like they he wants this pressure to push the Europeans and the International Community to put more pressure on Israel in order because hasah feels that the israelies are becoming more serious about a war that they are starting to believe that Israel might actually escalate maybe not a full-fledged War but a real escalation and they have suffered a lot of Damages they cannot afford for this war between War to continue uh uh because this is this is this opportunity Lebanon was not targeted before October 7 Syria was a different scenario where it was open for Israeli military attacks every day assassinating commanders irgc Hezbollah Lebanon was a red line for everyone today this has changeed the Syria scenario moved to Lebanon and Lebanon is an open field and hasah is suffering a lot of military damage assets uh Personnel commanders infrastructure weapons Etc so they they need to reestablish deteran to stop them right let's hope you're right thank you so much for talking us through that Han Kar from the Washington Institute for near East policy thank you so much thank you very much let's take a closer look at these developments Randa slim is a Lebanese American foreign policy specialist from the us-based Middle East Institute welcome to DW so we we've heard this threat then from Hezbollah leader Hassan nazah he's warned Israel to be ready for his forces on the ground in the air and in the sea if Israel launches a war in Lebanon is this rhetoric or is an allout War a real possibility I have been following Nal speeches since October 7 and he has given plenty many of them um and this is the first time that I really was alarmed by the tone partly because it came on the heels of a message conveyed by us Envoy Amos Hawkin to the Lebanese government and then from them relate to Hezbollah that if there is no sensation of hostilities on the Israel uh Lebanon border within the next four to five weeks then Israel will organize a limited will will engage in a what's called limited operation and we don't know how limited it is whether it's only limited to the southern region of Lebanon you know near the border with Israel or whether it is going to involve attacks on the capital Beirut other parts where hisbah of Beirut where hasah has um you know major presence um and and and and I think the message of NASA yesterday was very much a reply to this message that if Israel were to decide to do this lar this incursion in Lebanon or this attack on Lebanon then there will be no rules no limits no boundaries to hezbollah's reaction hasbalah has been trying to deter Israel since it started its war of support of the pales Ians in Gaza and it has been escalating you know in a tit forat pattern with Israeli action but all the time wanting to prevent a allout war and it looks like we might just it's just the timeline is not helping them anymore and do we presume then that the Israeli threat is a credible one fighting on two fronts in Gaza and in Lebanon the the the timeline is interesting because the message that was conveyed by the US invoy to Lebanese authorities is that if this is going to happen it's going to be within the next four to five weeks and this is supposedly when Israel is presumed to have finished with most of its operation in Rafa and then it can turn more of its attention and its resources to the north uh northern border so uh so is it credible I mean it was conveyed by a us Envoy and the timeline seemed to align itself with where the war in Raza is going Hezbollah of course part funded by Iran if a fullblown war uh with Israel were to break out uh what do you expect um the Iranian response would be well I mean depending on what kind of operation again Israel does and whether hisbah can withstand that kind of assault or not uh I don't think Iran will intervene if hisbah can take care of itself and can and will be able to repel whatever Advance uh whatever operation that Israel will will organize uh against Lebanese territory uh I think the red line for Iran has always been any existential threat tobah like it has been also in Israel I mean in Palestine any existential threat to Hamas uh and so um I think as long as that the situation does not create an existential threat to hisbah Iran will not intervene hisbah will be able to take care of itself and of you know of of its defense and and Lebanon has always been this this strange creature with Hezbollah acting as an army within the Lebanese state so does the Lebanese government just look on and watch this this happen um in its own land yes unfortunately yes and I think the all the decision of War and Peace now have been in the hands of hisbah for some time including for example in 20112 when hisbah decided to send its troops to Syria to help prop up the Assad regime when at at the time that the Lebanese government made a decision to disassociate itself from the Syrian War so yes uh war and peace decision have been in the hands of hisbah for some time in Lebanon thank you so much for guiding us through that so clearly Randa Slim from the us-based Middle East Institute thank you so much thank you and we can now get a broader perspective on these developments and welcome Katrina samour she's with the Emirates policy Center that's an independent Think Tank Miss samour joins us from the Jordanian Capital Aman welcome to DW now Hezbollah leader Hassan Nala has ramped up the rhetoric we heard it there is this just safe rattling or a threat to be taken very seriously um we need to also consider that not only nah has been uh raising the rhetoric but also the Israeli government has been raising the rhetoric when it comes to South Lebanon and the hisbah attacks on uh the North of Israel uh what they're both are trying to do they're trying to raise the rhetoric to deescalate the situation basically to raise the alarm of a possible war that they both want would try to avoid it is very interesting to look that nella's speech came after uh a video footage was released from the Recon drones um which was a clear message that hisbah has access their drones have access to sensitive Israeli military uh facilities and locations and it was a clear message that hasah is still committed to Rules of Engagement and is and is choosing not to escalate which and the same thing with Israel when they say that they have a plan to engage in south of Lebanon it is not a declaration of war we need to remember that it is just an approved plan by the military so both parties are trying to avoid a wider conflict nah is also trying to create more pressure in Israeli Society on BB's government to reach a ceasefire agreement and also to relieve some of the pressure on and Gaza for the Hamas for the Hamas members that are operating there still something that sorry to jump in there but but something that raised eyebrows in the EU especially was naz's threat to attack Cyprus if it opened its airport and basis to Israeli forces is that a realistic possibility a realistic scenario if those two were really to clash look uh the war on Gaza has changed a lot of Dynamics in the Middle East and I don't believe there will be a full confrontation or attack on Cyprus for example but it could affect its shipping it could affect uh its trade uh and and diplomatic uh and economic relations with the region um if we see the patterns of uh Iran mobilizing its proxies in groups it happened on a a very gradual uh way in a very gradual way so we saw the huis uh escalate and escalate in the Red Sea hisbah has escalated in South Lebanon and the Iranian backed militias in Iraq have escalated with time so we cannot just assume that this is going to be like hisbah engaging with Cyprus or attacking Cyprus we need to look at the wider context and the and and basically the geography of the region and where Cyprus fits in so for me a real possibility would be is uh influencing or affecting uh Cy trade and and shipping Yeah you mentioned Iran there Hezbollah is of course in part funded by Iran now you say a full-blown war is not in anybody's interests at this point but things can get out of control and how would you expect Terron to to behave where there to be a wider conflict uh tan and uh Iran is not going to engage directly in in a war with with Israel because that means if Iran engages that means the United States engages that means the UK will engage it's will not want to have a full-blown confrontation with Israel and Israel's allies affecting its wider project in the Middle East but as we've seen with the huis the pmf in Iraq and with the hisbah in Lebanon Iran will mobilize through its proxies so we will need to look at the moving pieces in the region and how will Iran use them to support L support to hisbah mainly through Supply routs through Iraq and Syria which means then if you want to engage with hisbah and you're gonna or or have like have a wider conflict with hisbah you will need to Target their supply rootes which means you will Target Syria you will Target Iraq bringing the region again into a wider conflict um leaving countries like us Jordan again on the front on the Forefront of these regional conflict and putting our national security at threat a scenario that many where you are and where we are are trying to avoid that was Katrina samour from the Emirates policy Center think tank thank you so much for your time thank you thank you let's get some analysis now with makram Raba he's an assistant professor of history at the American University of Beirut welcome sir how do you read nasrallah's comments is it a warning shot or does Hezbollah actually want war with Israel I genuinely believe that masah statement yesterday reflects that of a drowning man who's trying to uh to scare people into accepting that he has the ability to take on one of the most advanced armies in the region the problem is that many of nella's claims rest on the fact that he assumes that Israel will launch a fullscale military operation but if we are to uh to Monitor and to analyze what's happening Israel are surgically removing the threat on its northern border by targeting high ranking military uh military officials within hisbah if this continues it is on its own sufficient to [ __ ] many of hezbollah's abilities in addition to the fact that Nala is uh betting that Iran's proxies across the region or across the globe will come to his Aid one has to mention that nasala or his people have been hinting to the fact that Taliban even want to join the fight on the 11 and all this is not realistic given the fact that if such a scenario does occur Hezbollah will not only be fighting Israel but it will be fighting the International Community as well as the NATO you're talking about targeted attacks from Israel against Hezbollah but many in Israel not least among the military BL brass say it's not a question of if but when we'll see a full-blown war with Hezbollah is that the view in Lebanon as well well everyone is waiting for the real big war unfortunately while they are waiting for this war we are in the midst of a different type of War as I mentioned before and this is why I think that going forward Israel will start targeting uh political assets within hisbah and not only restrict its targets to the south of Lebanon and even can go far as to attack hisbah civilians infrastructure however a fullscale war ident iCal to that in 20 2006 is not even on the table for many reasons first of all as long as the ra operation is Ono I don't think that the Israeli Army will launch two military operations at the same time yet when we get to the point where the Gaza war is uh completed we will have a new uh ball game and we will have a new playbook unfortunately and this is something that the Lebanese do not understand that Israel has been preparing for such a scenario on its northern border and it has more reverence and more respect tob's military capabilities and this is why they will be ready when the time comes and this will come at the expense of the innocent lives of the Lebanese people I wanted to talk about hezbollah's military capabilities because of this video that Hezbollah released on Tuesday showing apparently uh a Drone footage from over hia and it claims to pinpoint quote sensitive Israeli military sides what does that say about hezbollah's capabilities given that n just claimed that the group has new weapons as well well the the key word here is claim and all of this so-called access of resistance claims that it has technology I genuinely believe that technology needs democracies and many of these countries be it North Korea Iran and even hisbah they claim that they have Cutting Edge weapons the fact that they have been able to sneak in a small drone into hia doesn't really mean that they have the ability to destroy hia in addition to the fact that such footage and such gimmicks and theatrics from hisbah they give the Israeli Army and the Israeli political establishment more reason to get its own people and to mobilize public opinion as well as the Biden Administration behind them because if any potential attack against haa or even against the island of Cyprus like yesterday's statement with with Nala would also indicate that it will disrupt the maritime activities in the Mediterranean and this is something that the International Community does not want to have a new hthi threat like the one at the moment in the Red Sea the kind of statements that we are hearing from Hassan nasah is that what Iran wants to hear as well well at the end of the day nah is justce mouthpiece for Iran I don't tend to agree that hisbah has its own mind or it can actually operate independently of Iran and certainly we have seen how the the Iranians want a kind of a deal and they just are trying to wait out the war in hopes that a future Democratic Administration in Washington DC would allow them to go back to the old system whereas in fact I think everyone needs to remember that the word has changed after October 7 be it the Lebanon scenario or even the fact that many people have believed that the real threat was the nuclear weapons on the region was the recent events have proven that the real threat on the area and International Security are the proxies of Iran and they will start to deal with this accordingly we'll leave it there for the moment but thanks so much for joining us today makram Raba assistant professor of history at the American University of beut thank you sir

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Published: Thu Jun 20 2024