The quadrennial presidential and congressional elections came to an end last weekend. This election in Taiwan was called by many foreign media this year "the most important election in the world" and the results can be said to have created a new situation since Taiwan's democratization . So, What do the results of this election mean? Today, let us talk about the "2024 Taiwan Election"! Hiho~ Hello everyone, I am Zhiqi! The overall results of this year's general election showed a "three-legged confrontation" between the President and Vice President. Lai Xiaopei of the Democratic Progressive Party was elected with more than 40% of the vote , Hou Kangpei of the Kuomintang ranked second with 33.49% of the vote, and finally the People's Party with 26.46%. Although Ke Ying and Lai Qingde broke the curse of the same party in power for a maximum of eight years in the past 20 years for the DPP , his vote rate was less than 50%, which was nearly 17% less than Tsai Ing-wen last time . In addition, the KMT’s vote rate, It was also 5% less than last time in the People's Party. Although Ko Wenzhe only won the third place as president, the People's Party he led succeeded in seizing the position of the "key minority" in Congress. The confrontation between the United States and China has exacerbated the turmoil of the world. Under such circumstances, Taiwan's election has also attracted great attention from the international media. Not only has it made headlines in many foreign media , the BBC, the Washington Post and other media have even called this election "one of the most important elections in the world" this year . So, What do the analysts from all parties think of the results of this election? What challenges will we face next for Taiwan's political parties and society as a whole ? But before we start today’s discussion, let’s go into some business service time! [DPP: Lai Ching-te’s triple challenge] Although the DPP was re-elected, it lost nearly 2.6 million votes for the president compared to the last election. Regional legislators also lost a lot of money. However, the performance of party votes was relatively stable , and nearly 5 million votes were kept up. Analysts believe that the nearly 5 million party votes are equivalent to the "basic base" of the green camp , and the 2.6 million lost presidential votes should mostly be "swing voters" who are neither blue nor green. " In the last election, these voters were affected by the "Hong Kong Anti-Extradition Movement" and voted for Tsai Ing-wen because they were worried about the threat from China. However, this time they may care more about housing prices , wages and other more relevant people's livelihood issues than China factors. Some voters have a strong desire to "change and see" and therefore decide not to vote for the DPP . This situation also means that Lai Qingde, who will usher in the DPP's "third presidential term", must deal with these people's livelihood issues. On domestic affairs issues, he has demonstrated a more convincing governance performance that impressed the public. However, with the opposition in the Legislative Yuan being dominated by the Democratic Party and the Democratic Party, it is likely that he will have difficulty in promoting and realizing his political views due to opposition from the opposition parties . Even this time, there is still no single political party. More than half of the situation , so how to negotiate and cooperate with the two opposition parties will be a major challenge for him after taking office in May. At the same time, some commentators believe that although the China factor has subsided this time , it will soon be over, and Xi Jinping will seek to seek power again in 2027. If he is re-elected, will he take any action against Taiwan before that ? This will also greatly test Lai Qingde's response ability [Kuomintang: How to reform? 】 Although the Kuomintang made a comeback in many places this time and regained many regional legislative seats , the party vote was about the same as last time , so the overall number of congressional seats was not more than half. Moreover, not only did their president lose 850,000 fewer votes than last time , he even lost more than the party vote. The 100,000-vote shortfall set a historical record for the first time that the KMT's "presidential votes were lower than party votes." Some analysts believe that this shows that Hou Youyi not only failed to help the KMT , but even lost votes from the blue camp. Therefore, even the KMT's internal review believes that this time they One of the main reasons for the president's defeat was the "selection issue." From the beginning of Terry Gou to the subsequent defeat of the blue and white alliance, supporters may feel confused. That is also because Hou Youyi, who finally qualified , did not gain universal recognition from the pan-blue camp, so the blue camp The strongly promoted "abandonment of bail" strategy not only failed to work , but even diverted some votes to Ko Wenzhe . Some people believe that in the longer term, this also reflects the lack of talents in the blue camp who can build consensus within the party and are suitable to run for president. In addition, , some analysts believe that the bigger problem of the Kuomintang may be that its relatively pro-China proposition and conservative image have not changed, which has resulted in them getting almost no support from young people. Therefore, the next biggest issue for the Kuomintang is to "reform", first of all, internal talents. The training and selection mechanism needs to be adjusted. The second is to change the image of the party to attract more young people . Otherwise, it may gradually decline because there is no new blood to join . However, analysts believe that most of the more potential talents in the blue camp are the second generation of politicians, or The factional family power still has an outdated and conservative color, which may conflict with the "younger" image transformation . Moreover, if they want to "younger" the image of the party, or even change the policy line, they may also lose existing die-hard loyalists. The choice of this part of the electorate will also be a big test [People’s Party: The problem of the key minority? 】 This time, although the People's Party was at the bottom in terms of presidential votes , the gap with the Kuomintang was not very big. Regardless of the district, it improved by three seats and became the "critical minority" in Congress . Some analysts believe that this means that Ko Wenzhe's "middle line" has been effective and successfully won the election. The median voters who voted for Tsai for the second time also attracted some pan-blue voters who were opposed to the DPP's rule. However, among the three groups of people, the People's Party's basic base was also relatively unstable. Ke Wenzhe received 3.69 million votes , but the party vote was only 3 million . All 11 recommended regional legislators were also defeated . Some analysts believe that this means that the entire People's Party almost relies on the political charm of Ke Wenzhe. If his popularity is not maintained, he will easily be marginalized , as he once became the "third party" in the past. The Taiwan Federation and the People's First Party, both of which are declining in power, are like this and gradually bubble up. What's more, the People's Party's voter structure is younger than these political parties, and its stickiness may be lower. Especially in the next four years, Ke Wenzhe will have no public office, only party office. It may also be difficult to maintain its voice , so next, it will be a great test whether the People's Party can perform brilliantly in Congress , and this matter will not be easy because although the People's Party has the opportunity to influence the situation in Congress as a "key minority" Even if we get more favorable political chips , there will also be great pressure to "choose sides." For example, will we support Han Kuo-yu in the candidate for "Legislative Yuan" that we will soon face ? Or whether we should promote the restart of nuclear four in the service trade in the future , etc. When more sensitive issues come to a vote in Congress, it may be more difficult for the People's Party to maintain a "middle-of-the-road" attitude on many issues like it did in the election . Moreover, because of its role The key is that their choices on each issue are bound to receive closer scrutiny from the public , which also provides voters with more opportunities to test their values [Small parties: Will they never recover from this? 】 Several small parties that began to show their prominence after the Sunflower Movement in 2014 were completely wiped out in this election , including the Times Force, which had 3 seats in the previous term. This time, the party not only had no seats, but also only received 2.57% of the vote. It is below the 3% threshold that can receive subsidies. Other small parties, including the People's First Party and Taiwan Foundation , whose votes exceeded the 3% threshold last time , all fell below 1% . Analysts believe that the overall decline of small parties is basically The main problem that can be expected is that it is common to all small parties. The current "single constituency two-vote system" is inherently very unfavorable for small parties to survive . During elections, they often have to fight against the "abandonment effect" of many voters. Because they are worried that their party votes for small parties cannot be converted into actual seats , they will choose to vote for large parties, which will make small parties even weaker. In addition to the difficulties of the system, several relatively powerful small parties also face similar difficulties. Take Times Force as an example. In the past few years, they have repeatedly encountered the problem of unclear party positioning. With many political stars quitting the party and now losing their subsidies, the test has become even more severe . However, some analysts believe that the future of small parties may not be so good. It is pessimistic because overall the total number of votes cast for the minor parties is still large , but it is more evenly dispersed. This means that there is still a certain number of value-oriented voters . If they can strategically form alliances with each other or cooperate with major parties, there may still be a chance. However , most analysts generally agree that the next challenge for these small parties is still very arduous , especially how to continue to maintain the operation of party affairs without subsidies is a big challenge . Moreover, if they really want to choose strategic alliances, it may also be possible. Like the forces of the times, we will encounter issues such as party positioning and internal divisions. [Challenges in Taiwanese society] In addition to the challenges faced by various political parties, this election also reflects the challenges faced by Taiwanese society . First of all, many comments mentioned that although the election Social divisions caused by war are nothing new. However, in recent years , there seems to be more and more attacks , hatred and even rumors between different positions on the Internet. "End Media" commented that Taiwan's elections are "populist". It is becoming more and more obvious that the candidates’ policies are hollow. Rather than discussing solutions to problems, candidates spend more energy on calculating polls and hyping up the negative image of their opponents. The hatred of people with different stances towards each other continues to soar. In addition, end media, reporters, etc. Comments from other media have also mentioned that the impact of "China's interference in the election" includes indirect economic oppression, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council directly warns Taiwanese voters , or through cognitive warfare , that is, spreading false information to incite Taiwanese people's emotions and create confrontation. As for cognitive warfare, there have always been two factions of voices in Taiwan. One group believes that there is no so-called cognitive warfare , or even if it does, it is not that serious . The term is just an excuse used by the ruling party to suppress those voices that supervise the government. But the other group believes that, Cognitive war is not only real , but also very serious. Regarding this point, there are currently many domestic and foreign independent institutional studies showing that China’s cognitive war against Taiwan is indeed on the rise. For example, in 2023, the "Global Democracy Project V-dem" of the University of Gothenburg in Sweden will A report in 2017 pointed out that Taiwan has been ranked first in the world in terms of the severity of "foreign disinformation attacks" for 10 consecutive years, and the situation continues to worsen. In September last year, an analysis report released by Microsoft also stated that China would set up online media or pretend to be local people . Deliberately posting controversial remarks on online communities will influence the 2024 Taiwan (and U.S.) election. They even predict that China will expand covert cooperation with Internet celebrities in the future to influence uninformed people and stand on the front line of fact-checking in Taiwan. The Center also stated that as the election approaches, false information is not only more intensive, but also more diverse. In addition to the people's livelihood issues that will always appear before and after the election, a large number of maliciously edited videos have also appeared on platforms such as TikTok to create a trend of "vote manipulation" [Our Viewpoints] Before entering the views, we would like to express our special thanks to all members of Zhiqi Qiqi. With your support and sponsorship, we can continue to operate this channel so that important issues can be seen by more people . Thank you very much! If you are willing to support us to go further, please click the "Join" button on the channel homepage to become our member , or you can also use "Super Thank you" to support us with a small amount . Having said that, the presidential election 4 years ago, regardless of whether it was the two major parties The candidates or their supporters have obviously different positions on many issues. However, during this election campaign, the three candidates did not differ that much on the general direction of many policies. Moreover, during the process, some very special phenomena also appeared, such as many foreigners. The focus of the media is how the Taiwanese will choose the next course towards China. However, they have seen that the most controversial issue during the Taiwan election was the real estate issue of the candidates from each camp . Many blue and green die-hard supporters also expressed disapproval of their own candidates. People are dissatisfied with the performance of the people , so after the election results are released, many experts also believe that this post-election analysis is relatively difficult . In the past, we can usually roughly see from the vote results how satisfied the swing voters other than the iron-clad votes are with the ruling party or But this time, the China issue has subsided. Some people even directly stated that rather than saying that they strongly agree with Ko Wenzhe or the People's Party, what they care more about is whether they can end the long-term monopoly of political power between the blue and green parties. At the same time , forces from abroad continue to intensify the existing antagonism between us through various information warfare , which also makes the situation more complicated. Based on our research and understanding of China’s information warfare in recent years, these concepts In fact, wars are not necessarily aimed at a single camp. Sometimes, they may act as supporters of different political parties at the same time , deliberately making extreme remarks in major discussion forums to stir up tension and make everyone suspicious of each other and hate each other . It is becoming increasingly difficult to form a consensus. Under such a trend, we ourselves have clearly felt that the discussion space for many issues seems to have become increasingly restricted in recent years. Not only the major Internet celebrities, but also the general public have become increasingly uncomfortable. Those who dare to express their opinions in their own communities are afraid of being criticized if they say the wrong thing. However, we believe that if fewer and fewer people are willing to participate in politics or discuss political issues , then the right to speak will be more likely to fall into the hands of a small number of people. Therefore, we feel that if we want to avoid political control or to resist the impact of China's cognitive war on Taiwan's democracy, perhaps the easiest way is to have more people willing to stand up and care and express their stance. This stance is not just a declaration of oneself. It also includes what camp or ideology you support. If there are extreme, obviously malicious or untrue remarks, can everyone stand up and condemn them regardless of position and declare our determination to seek consensus to solve the problem ? We know that we must do it. It is not easy to get to this point , especially when the divisions in this election are very serious. Trying these requires more courage , but we believe that when there are more and more rational voices, Taiwan will become more united and stronger. In addition, we have also observed that this time, many people who did not pay special attention to political issues will start to join the topic of elections . Although the process may be noisy and stumbling, with a little passion, Now that it has come to an end, perhaps it is a time for each other to calm down and prepare to continue participating in democracy. Just like a while ago, the CEO of the Gongdu Alliance also shared that "democracy only begins after the election." So next, Let Zhiqi Qiqi continue to care about and discuss various social issues with everyone! Okay, let me finally ask you about this election. What surprised you the most? Finally, if you like today's video, please share it to let more people know about "2024 Taiwan Election Analysis"! In addition, you can also click here to read "Election Voting Controversy" and "Interview with the Public Governors League" . So, today's Zhiqi Qiqi comes to an end here . See you tomorrow night!
