Taiwan's real estate boom is actually a big reason for the central bank's long-term low interest rates , which are a very important natural hazard and investment environment for real estate speculation. Dear friends and viewers of Financial News, my name is Xie Jinhe . Welcome to watch Lao Xie's lecture again this week. The focus of all Taiwan is on 00940. The Taiwan Value High Interest Fund issued by Yuanta has attracted a high degree of subscription from all walks of life after its issuance. You can see that the TV stations have used 00940 as the focus of their reports . This is because the monks are I came here to open an account , so it has attracted great attention from the society. In recent times, everyone has often heard a saying : Don’t go to crowded places. I also tell everyone that you are welcome to join the financial news channel. As a member, support us, the financial media that knows the most about investment. The program will be updated every week to allow everyone to track global political and economic trends and understand industry conditions. At the same time, 2024 is also the 50th anniversary of Financial Information. Whether you are a channel member or a message sponsor for the program, you can support us to continue to bring you wonderful content 00940 from After the fundraising, there were two high-interest funds in Taiwan in March : Uni-President 00939, which raised a total of NT$53.1 billion. Yuanda's 00940 originally thought that as long as it exceeded NT$50 billion , they would consider it a success. But all of a sudden, it suddenly hit the target It was heading in the direction of NT$200 billion. The fundraising speed was too fast. In addition, it caused a run on securities companies and alerted the Financial Supervisory Commission to pay close attention. Therefore, Yuanta called for a halt 3 days in advance. The final amount was NT$175 billion. This time 00940 had a lot of The large proportion comes from newly opened investment accounts. Why if you subscribe to ETFs , as long as your bank has a securities account and a collective insurance account, you can allocate money directly and complete the subscription process . But if you are a novice in the securities industry and have not opened a securities account, you can also If you don’t have a collective insurance account , you probably have to go through the insurance process, which will be cumbersome. So the sight of queuing up at major banks and securities companies to fill out forms has brought everyone a lot of attention. New money has come out, so let’s look at Taiwan’s ETFs first. The scale of ETFs will become larger and larger. In January, ETFs attracted NT$191.4 billion. In March, due to the raising of two new high-interest funds, there was an increase of nearly NT$300 billion . We can all see the current ETF performance of Taiwan stocks. The scale of ETFs now reaches NT$1.53 trillion, which is very scary. Everyone knows that when Yuanta 0050 was first raised 20 years ago , Taiwan (trading volume) was less than NT$300 billion , but now it has reached NT$1.53 trillion. Domestic funds other than ETFs are domestic. Before 2000, everyone knew that Taiwan’s four closed-end funds had caused a surge in 1989. At that time, in the past 20 years, only overseas funds in Taiwan were sold over the counter at banks, but domestic funds were relatively ignored. But what? Mr. Liu Zongsheng of Yuanta Investment Trust began to take advantage of his home field advantage and began to increase the scale of domestic funds. The scale of global ETFs is now NT$4 trillion. Among them, overseas ETFs in Taiwan have NT$2.5 trillion. Fixed income is NT$2.2 trillion, so You can see that the scale of ETFs is getting bigger and bigger. Among them, let’s take a look at the structure of the top 10. The first one is 0050, Yuanta Taiwan 50. This Taiwan 50 is a semi-annual dividend distribution (dividend). 0056 is a quarterly dividend distribution 0050. The scale has reached NT$309.8 billion. The scale of 0056 is NT$275.4 billion. The third place is 00878's Cathay Pacific Sustainability High Dividend. The scale is NT$266.7 billion. If you add up these 3 levels, the scale has reached NT$851.9 billion. You can see that the 10th place is the scale. NT$122.1 billion is Yuanta's investment-grade corporate bonds , and Yuanta accounts for half of the top 10. Yuanta's funds account for NT$1.02 trillion (in the top 10). This is incredible. So in these years, we have seen Liu Zongsheng It turns out that after the merger of Polaris Securities, he has been the chairman of Yuanta Investment Trust. I believe that in these years, his ETF operations have been highly recognized by the market . You can also see that the scale of Taiwan's ETFs has ranged from less than 2,000. NT$100 million started to grow in 2019. In fact, it was not much, but now it has reached NT$ 1.53 trillion. This scale is very fast . We have also seen that Yuanta’s high-dividend fund has gone from listing to NT$11.73 now. It went to 39.36 yuan this time to subscribe for 00940. Many people associate it with the Yuanta Taiwan 50 at 0050. You can see that Yuanta Taiwan 50 raised funds from 10 yuan 20 years ago to 156.45 yuan now. Everyone knows that this is not achieved instantly. This is the result of spending 20 years step by step in passive funds to select the top 50 stocks in Taiwan with relatively large market capitalization. So everyone must not be fooled because when subscribing to 00940, you must think with a long-term perspective and do not use short-term thinking. The probability of getting stuck in a short-term operation is very high. We saw that Yuan Dai Gold rose to a maximum of 30.7 yuan this time. Its market value reached a maximum of NT $385.6 billion , surpassing First Financial Holdings and Heku Financial Holdings, which is the No. 1 financial holding industry in Taiwan. 5 In the past, Yuanta Financial Holdings was a small financial holding company , but now it has skyrocketed. It also means that Yuanta ’s securities-based wealth management content has gradually exerted its power in Taiwan over the years. I believe this is a good one. Everyone should also cherish this phenomenon. After Yuanta Financial has been so successful in raising funds , it must properly restrain investment credit traders. With so much capital, they must be very cautious in their operations. This is our expectation for the future of Yuanta Financial Holdings. From 00940 You can probably see several very prominent phenomena in the fundraising. The first one is Taiwan’s financial system. Deposits in the banking system are increasing year by year. This is something that everyone should pay great attention to. In 1989, when the Taiwan stock market reached 12,682 points, there was a popular saying that Taiwan’s money flooded its feet. I believe that this time Taiwan’s money is better than it was 30-40 years ago. The era of flooding will be even worse. The biggest reason is that we see that after 2019, domestic Taiwan dollar deposits plus foreign currency deposits will be about NT$1.9 trillion before 2019. On average , we can see that from 2000 Since then, deposits in the banking system have generally averaged around NT$1.5 trillion, which means that bank deposits have increased by NT$1.5 trillion every year in the past 20 years . However, after the 2020 epidemic , because Taiwanese people cannot go out and do not travel abroad, bank deposit positions have increased rapidly . 2020 is relatively terrible. Within one year, you can see that the amount of increase is very considerable . The average deposit balance increased by NT$3.4 trillion from 2020 to 2023, which is equivalent to an increase of NT$2 trillion in more than one year. In this case, this is What 's more terrifying than Taiwan's flood of money is that we can probably see a scene like this. Bank deposits continue to increase. There are several important reasons for this. First, you can understand that before 2019, many people in Taiwan were used to making money. The money is remitted to mainland China to buy a house and then to buy RMB goods. Now you can find that after China's economic downturn, not only will it not be remitted to China , but the money from selling land in China and selling real estate will be remitted back to Taiwan . When funds come and go, it will have a very large relative impact. This is one of the reasons why everyone should pay great attention to changes in financial flows. The second reason is that we have seen the US dollar change from the US dollar to the New Taiwan dollar. Everyone knows that before 2019, the Taiwan dollar used to be It has appreciated to 27.375 to 1 U.S. dollar. Now the Taiwan dollar has depreciated to about 32 to 1 U.S. dollar. In the past, the U.S. dollar-denominated funds that everyone bought included overseas funds, high-interest corporate bonds , and junk bonds. The amount was very large. Now everyone has moved it from the U.S. dollar position. Switching back to this will cause the New Taiwan dollar assets that everyone sees now to be relatively hot. Third, we also see investment-type policies in life insurance policies. In the past period of time, everyone knows that this life insurance policy has increased the amount of life insurance very much. The annual premium income of the industry was NT$3.67 trillion in 2017 and has now dropped to NT$2.1879 billion. The premium income of life insurance has decreased by about NT$1.5 trillion. This is also a very important confidence that everyone has seen the rapid growth of ETFs in these years . You can see that the U.S. dollar, as mentioned earlier, has gone from 27-28 to 1 U.S. dollar over the past few years , and now it has returned to 32 to 1 U.S. dollar. Many people have converted their original U.S. dollar assets into New Taiwan dollar assets and invested in junk bonds. About NT$1.39 trillion has now dropped to NT$891.3 billion. Therefore, this capital continues to flow back, including the size of the target maturity bond fund. Now it is also shrinking, so this huge flow of money has returned to Taiwan stocks. Returning to Taiwan stocks, there is another important factor. The obvious lesson is that Taiwanese companies have made very good profits in these years , so you can see that Taiwan's listed OTC companies earned NT$1.88 trillion in 2016, NT $2.19 trillion in 2017-2018, and NT$1.99 trillion in 2019, which is around NT$2 trillion. But from 2020 Taiwan's semiconductor industry will rise after 2020, and it will earn NT$2.46 trillion in 2020 , NT$4.298 trillion in 2021 , and NT $ 3.98 trillion in 2022. This profit is significantly ahead of the curve . TSMC will earn NT$116.5 billion a year in 2022, and it will probably reach NT$3 trillion last year. Under this situation, the profits of Taiwanese companies have increased significantly in a year, and the dividends have increased relatively. The dividends we allocate in a year are about NT$2 trillion . Under this situation, you can now see that there is a flood of funds. There are only two ways to go , one is to real estate, the other is to stocks and real estate. Now you can see that the house price index we used Xinyi Housing in the first quarter of 2020 was 108.34. By 2023 , it has reached 153.44 . This is It’s amazing, so now you can see that the government has used all kinds of efforts to build houses , but the effect is not very good. Now there is still a fund repatriated from the past, which is about NT$380 billion. The government has ordered that no one can enter the real estate industry within 3 years. Now in August After the ban is lifted, what kind of thoughts does the central bank have on the more than NT$300 billion ? It is worth waiting and watching . Recently, we have seen the Bank of Japan end the era of negative interest rates . The Bank of Japan announced an interest rate increase , and now it is back to 0% - 0.1% This is a small test for Japan. However, everyone has noticed that the yen would appreciate if Japan raised interest rates, but instead the yen depreciated to more than 150 against 1 US dollar. Japan's Nikkei index has also reached more than 40,000 points. This situation actually reminds the central bank that Taiwan's interest rates in the past were relatively It is low. With the flood of funds, our central bank's monetary policy should not be too conservative. I believe the central bank has enough room to raise interest rates. In other words, let Taiwan return to the past level of integrating with international standards. I believe this is the future of the central bank. The main reason why Taiwan's real estate market is booming is actually the central bank's long-term low interest rates , which are a very important natural hazard and investment environment for real estate speculation. Well, another one is that we see that the Taiwan stock market is now at 20112 points. This tells you that in the past , when we passed 18619 points , everyone thought that Taiwan stocks were too expensive . However, the Taiwan stocks have gained more powerfully in this wave because of many fundamentals. Improvement, but everyone must remember that the market has begun to have a more significant change this time . So at 20,000 points, I actually tell you the market value ranking of the first company. It will have a very big change. In this round , TSMC (market value) By NT$20 trillion, Hon Hai and MediaTek will be around NT$1.8 trillion. I believe the final market value of these two companies will probably be around NT$2 trillion. For companies with a market value of NT$1 trillion, Quanta will reach the standard first. We will see later. From Fubon Financial Holdings to Chunghwa Telecom, it is possible. At this time, we can understand that the market value of Yuanta Financial Holdings has jumped significantly. It has surpassed Heku, Sinosteel, and now it is more than NT$700 billion. Its current market value ranks 8th. We have seen that the market value of Formosa Plastics Group has fallen sharply. This also tells everyone that you must be very cautious about future investments. All industries that are mass-produced in China will become a killing battlefield, from cement, steel, petrochemical panels to solar cell modules to electric vehicles to mature processes. Chip China's killing is not just targeting Taiwan. In fact, it has spread to the whole world. First, we saw the stock price of Formosa Plastics Sibao, which frequently hit new lows . Everyone remembers that Formosa Plastics' dividend in 2022 is allocated 8.2 yuan (slip of the tongue) ) Then allocate 4.2 yuan , and now it is left with 1 yuan. Nanya’s current dividend is 0.8 yuan. In the past, it was allocated 7.5 yuan. The shrinkage of this dividend is also due to the sharp shrinkage of profits . Among international companies, Apple has a large share of the Chinese market , so its stock price There is a very big retracement this time. We see that the most severe one now is probably Tesla. The market value of Tesla’s stock price has dropped to more than 530 billion US dollars. This also tells everyone that Musk seems to be under pressure gradually. We also see that. The stock price of Starbucks, which Luckin Coffee has hit, has also dropped. For Taiwan, Taiwan is in the most favorable position in history in the future . After the seven giants of technology, it is now called AI 5. This includes starting from Microsoft, then to Nvidia , then to TSMC, to AMD, and then to The first of the 5 companies behind AVGO, we can probably see that Microsoft, led by Nadella, has grown its market value more than ten times in ten years. We can see that after Microsoft's stock price reached US$427.82, its market value reached more than 3.14 trillion US dollars. The U.S. dollar is a new milestone in history. Now Microsoft's market capitalization leads Apple by at least more than 400 billion U.S. dollars. Huida's stock price continues to rise and is now gradually beginning to challenge Apple. This is noteworthy among the Chinese. AMD's stock price has reached a maximum of 227.3. The US dollar and Super Micro once reached US$1,229 (slip of the tongue). This also tells everyone that Taiwan is in the era of AI. Taiwan occupies the most important and key position. Therefore, under this situation, we just mentioned the mass production of mature process chips in China. The fate of current high-speed computing chips is very different. TSMC ’s market value is NT$20 trillion, but UMC’s market value is about NT$660 billion. This difference is that UMC ’s current market value is only about 3% of TSMC’s. This tells everyone that this is a portrayal of a cruel history in AI. We have seen that Quanta's stock price has now started to soar, and it has entered a new era. And in the new situation of the world, we have also seen that the Nikkei index has reached 40,000 points , and it has performed relatively well. India has reached more than 74,200 points. So everyone It can be seen that our trip to India this time has also brought a lot of inspiration to the Chinese people. We have seen that India has excluded China’s supply chain , including India’s ban on Chinese APPs , Douyin, and WeChat. If India can sign an FTA with Taiwan in the next round, I believe it. The Taiwanese Chamber of Commerce will shine in India. This is a world structure in the future. You can know that Taiwan , Japan, and India will play a very important role in the entire Indo-Pacific alliance. So we have to look at Taiwan with a different mood. I believe in Taiwan ’s real estate. The stocks will still shine in this big capital wave in the future and deserve everyone's high attention. Today, Lao Xie Kai's talk comes to an end . Thank you for watching. Please continue to watch at the same time next week.
