Stock market today: Stocks build on tech-fueled jump as market takes PCE in its stride

>>> SHAH GNAW AND BRAD SMITH. THIS IS YA HEROES LIVE. >> THE TREASURY YIELD FALLING DESPITE ANOTHER SURPRISE DESPITE INFLATION. >> CORPORATE CE COMING IN. SHOWING TRADERS WE'RE ALREADY POSITIONED FOR ANOTHER. >> MICROSOFT TECH DRIVING HIGHER. IT COMES AFTER THEY IMPRESS WITH THEIR QUARTERLY REPORTS SHOWING AI SPENDING IS PAYING OFF. LET'S SHOW YOU THE THREE THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW. "YAHOO! FINANCE" HAS MORE. >> FUTURES LOOK AT GAINS. CLOCKED IN HOTTER THAN EXPECTED LAST MONTH, UNDERSTAND SCORING IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR THE FED TO GAIN CONFIDENCE THAT INFLATION IS DROPPING BEFORE CUTTING INTEREST RATES. FED CHAIR POWELL WARNED AHEAD OF THIS NUMBER LAST WEEK, SAYING HE DIDN'T EXPECT IT WOULD SHOW PROGRESS AND SAID IT WOULD TAKE LONGER TO GAIN CONFIDENCE AND INFLATION IS DROPPING. >>> BIG TECH EARNINGS SENDING NASDAQ HIGHER. CLOUD COMPUTING IS PAYING OFF FOR ALPHABET AND MICROSOFT. SHARES JUMPING AFTER THE COMPANY REINVESTED ITS COMMITMENT TO AI AND OFFERED ITS FIRST EVER CASH DIVIDEND BUY BBACK PRAM. MICROSOFT IS GROWING ON ITS CLOUD PRODUCTS. >>> EXXON SHELF CHEVRON MOBIL CLIMBING. THEY'RE LOOKING AT LOWER REFINING MARGINS. ♪ >>> TODAY'S TOP STORY, THE MAR INFLATION PRINT COMING IN LINE, JUST A HAIR HOTTER THAN EXPECTED. HERE WITH WHAT THIS READING COULD MEAN FOR THE FED'S PATH TOWARD THEIR NEXT MEETING AND PATHWAY FORWARD HERE. WE'VE GOT OUR VERY OWN JENNIFER SCHONBERGER. HEY, JENNIFER. >> GOOD MORNING, BRAD. THAT'S RIGHT. A NEW READING ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE SHOWING PRICES REMAINED ELEVATED LAST MONTH, UNDERSCORING CONCERNS THAT INFLATION IS GOING TO TAKE SLOWER AND LONGER TO DROP AND THAT THE FED WON'T BE CUTTING RATES ANY TIME SOON. TAKE A LOOK AT THAT NUMBER, THE SO-CALLED FOUR PERSONAL EXPENDITURES CONSUMPTION INDEX. THAT CLOCKED IN AT 2.8% FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, PULLING THE SAME LEVEL AS FEBRUARY AND A TENTH OF A PERCENT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED YEAR OVER YEAR. THIS COMING AFTER WE GOT A READING ON THE FIRST QUARTER GDP THAT SHOWED THAT INFLATION DID REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE FIRST QUARTER. FED CHAIR POWELL WARNED AHEAD OF THIS NUMBER LAST WEEK THAT HE DIDN'T EXPECT IT WOULD SHOW PROGRESS. THE FED CHAIR SIGNALING IT WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO CUT RATES FOLLOWING THAT HOT READING ON THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR A THIRD MONTH IN A ROW WHEN HE SAID IT WILL TAKE LONGER THAN EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE CONFIDENCE THAT INFLATION IS COMING BACK DOWN TO THE FED'S 2% TARGET. TAKING A LOOK AT FED FUND FUTURES, PRICING IN AT A 45% CHANCE THAT THE FED WILL BEGIN CUTTING RATES IN SEPTEMBER. GUYS? >> ALL RIGHT, JEN. THANKS SO MUCH. >>> WELL, FUTURES ARE HIGHER AS MARCH PCE COMES IN PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS, THE NASDAQ GETTING A BOOST ON THE BACKS OF MICROSOFT AND ALPHABET. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT WHERE WE ARE TODAY. JUST ABOUT 27 MINUTES HERE UNTIL THE OPENING BELL. WE'RE LOOKING AT GAINS AT LEAST FOR THE DOW FUTURES, POINTING TO A GAIN OF 53. TAKING A LOOK AT THE NASDAQ, 100. DOWN TO THE FUTURES ACTION, THAT IS ALSO POINTING TO GAINS HERE, JUST ABOUT 1% IN EARLY ACTION AS WELL AS THE S&P 500. THAT'S MOVING TO THE UPSIDE, MOVING FURTHER ABOVE THE 5100 LEVEL. I THINK THIS IS A BIT SURPRISING MAYBE WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THE HEADLINE NUMBER, THE CORE CPE COMING IN HOTTER THAN EXPECTED. BUT WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THE BROADER ACTION, A LOT OF THAT HAD ALREADY BEEN PRICED IN FROM PREVIOUS DAY LET'S MOVES AND THAT'S WHY WE'RE NOT SEEING A BIGGER REACTION. >> YOU MENTIONED TECH. THAT'S ONE AREA WE'LL DIVE INTO. LET'S TEE UP ON THAT. WE'LL GIVE YOU A LOOK AT THE HEAT MAPS AND NASDAQ 100. ANYWAY, TAKING A LOOK AT THE PREMARKET MOVES, NO FURTHER THAN ALPHABET, GOOGLE, ALPHAGOOGLE, CALL THEM WHATEVER YOU WANT. >> A LITTLE SLOWING BUT THE MARKET PCE PREECE RISING AT 2.8%, COMING IN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN ANTICIPATED. TO BREAK THIS ALL DOWN, WE HAVE BRIAN ROSE, U.S. SENIOR ECONOMIST HERE. IT'S GREAT TO TALK TO YOU. TALK TO US ABOUT HOW YOU'RE LOOKING AT THIS PRINT AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE OVERALL FED, DO YOU THINK, AND WHAT IT MEANS IN THE COMING MONTHS. >> SURE. THE RECENT INFLATION DATA HAS BEEN TOO HIGH FOR THE FED TO THINK ABOUT CUTTING RATES, BUT IT'S NOT THAT FAR OUT OF WHAT THE FED WAS EXPECTED. SO IF YOU GO BACK TO THE MARCH FOC AND THE DOT PLOT, THE FED WAS SAYING WE'RE GOING TO CUT RATES BY THREE TIMES BY THE END OF THE YEAR, AND WE'RE LOOKING FOR THE CORE CPE INFLATION TO BE AT 2.6 AT THE END OF THE YEAR. IN MARCH WE'RE AT 2.8. SOMETHING A LITTLE DIFFERENT. WE NEED THE RATE TO COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND THEN WE CAN THINK ABOUT THE FED CUTTING RATES. >> CERTAINLY. AS YOU LOOK AT THE INDEXES WITHIN THIS BROADER REPORT HERE, IS THERE ANYWHERE THAT YOU THINK THE FED DOES NOT HAVE A LEVEL IT CAN PULL IN ORDER TO PULL DOWN INFLATION? IN SOME OF THE STICKIER AREAS, YOU THINK OF THE I AND THAT HOTTER THAN EXPECTED READ WAS. IT'S BEEN SHELTER, IT'S BEEN ENERGY COSTS. HOW DOES THAT COMPARE TO THE PCE REPORT FOR YOU? >> THEY'RE VERY CONFIDENT THAT SHELTER INFLATION WILL SLOW BECAUSE WE HAVE MORE TIMELY DATA ON RENT, WHICH IS CLEARLY SHOWING THAT SHELTER INFLATION WILL HEAD DOWN. THE BIG PROBLEM FOR THE FED HAS BEEN CORE SERVICES EXCLUDING SHELTER. NOW, THESE ARE THE THINGS THAT ARE MOST CLOSELY LINKED TO THE STRENGTH OF DEMAND AND ALSO TO WAGE GROWTH. THE FED'S BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS FOR TWO YEARS. THIS IS WHERE THEY WANT TO SEE DISINFLATION, AND THE READINGS ARE JUST TOO HOT. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE FED, THOUGH, IS WAGE GROWTH IS SLOWING, SO THAT DOES IMPLY THAT THIS CATEGORY OF INFLATION SHOULD SLOW OVER THE MEDIUM TERM. WE'RE NOT THAT FAR AWAY FROM CIRCUMSTANCES THAT WOULD LET THE FED START CUTTING RATES. >> BRIAN, WHAT DOES THAT TIMING THEN LOOK LIKE, DO YOU THINK? >> OUR BASE CASE IS SEPTEMBER. OF COURSE, EARLIER WE WERE TALKING ABOUT JUNE. BUT BECAUSE OF THE HIGHER INFLATION PRINTS WE'VE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR, WE'VE SWITCHED THAT BACK TO SEPTEMBER. THERE ARE RISKS THAT IF WE CONTINUE TO GET TO SORT OF THE INFLATION PRINTS WE'VE HAD RECENTLY, IT COULD GET PUSHED BACK EVEN FURTHER. BUT, AGAIN, YOU LOOK AT THINGS LIKE WAGE GROWTH, WHICH IS CLEARLY TRENDING LOWER, AND ALSO WE HAD GDP COMING IN SLOWER IN THE FIRST QUARTER, SLOWER ECONOMIC GROWTH WOULD ALSO HELP TO GET INFLATION DOWN. WE'RE OPTISTIC WE WILL GET INFLATION PRINTS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE GOT IN THE SECOND HALF OF LAST YEAR. THAT'S GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE FED TO START CUTTING BY SEPTEMBER. >> YOU MENTIONED WAGES. WE'RE GOING TO GET A TROVE OF ECONOMIC DATA ON THE EMPLOYMENT FRONT NEXT WEEK AS WIELL. WHAT ARE YOU ANTICIPATING AS YOU'RE LOOKING TO SEE WHICH INDUSTRIES ARE ADDING THE MOST JOB, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, THE PAY THAT COMES WITH THOSE JOBS BEING ADDED IN INDUSTRIES STILL TRYING TO REBOUND? >> RIGHT. SO FROM THE FED'S PERSPECTIVE, YOU KNOW, THEY DON'T HAVE A MANDATE ON GROWTH, PAYROLL GROWTH, BUT THEY ARE INTERESTED IN THE BALANCE IN THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF THE LABOR MARKET AND THE ULTIMATE MEASURE FOR THE FED IS WAGE GROWTH. SO BECAUSE OF THE SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE LOTS OF IMGRANGT LABOR COMING IN, IT'S A BIT HARD TO GAUGE. IT WANTS SUSTAINABLE GROWTH BUT IT'S REALLY FOCUSED ON WAGES. AGAIN, YOU CLEARLY SEE IN ALL OF THE WAGE MEASURES THAT THINGS ARE SLOWING. ALSO, ON THE FED CONTACTS, BUSINESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY, YOU KNOW, THEY PUT THAT INFORMATION IN THE BASE BOOK. ALSO CLEARLY SHOWING LESS PRESSURE ON THE WAGES. SO THE FED IS MOSTLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION. WHERE IS INFLATION GOING TO BE 2025/2026? THEY'RE NOT THAT, YOU KNOW, WORRIED ABOUT, YOU KNOW, THE MONTHLY PRINTS. AS LONG AS THE OUTLOOK IS FOR INFLATION TO SLOW TOWARD THE TARGET, AGAIN, SAY, BY THE END OF 2026, THAT'S WHAT THEY WANT TO SEE BEFORE THEY START CUTTING RATES. WAGES, I WOULD SAY, ARE VERY, VERY IMPORTANT COMPONENTS OF THAT. >> BRIAN ROSE, UBS GLOBAL MANAGEMENT. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME. WE APPRECIATE IT. >> THANK YOU VERY MUCH. >>> TWO MORE MAG 7 STOCKS MAKING BIG MOVES THIS MORNING. MICROSOFT AND ALPHABET BOTH GROWING. ALPHABET ROSE 13% AND CLOUD REVENUE JUMPED 30%. ALPHABET'S CEO SUNDAR PICHAI, TAKE A LISTEN TO THIS. >> WE ARE COMMITTED TO MAKING THE INVESTMENTS REQUIRED. THIS WILL FUEL GROWTH IN CLOUD, HELP US PUSH THE FRONTIERS OF AI MODELS, AND ENABLE INNOVATION ACROSS OUR SERVICES, ESPECIALLY IN SEARCH. >> FOR MORE ON THESE RESULTS, TED MORTENSEN AND THE RBC CAPITAL MARKET EQUITY ANALYST JOIN US NOW. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR KICKING US OFF AHEAD OF TODAY'S TRADING SESSION. WE'VE GOT TO BREAK THIS DOWN. WITH HEARD FROM GOOGLE AND SUNDARPY PICHAI. HOW DOES THIS RANGE YOUR RATING THAT YOU HAVE ON IT? >> ABSOLUTELY. REMEMBER, I CAN KIND OF TALK ABOUT THAT AND MAYBE MORE BROADLY ON AI. BUT THE COMMENTARY OUT OF MICROSOFT AND GOOGLE, THERE IS REAL DEMAND FOR AI, AND IT'S HAPPENING WITH THE DATA INFRASTRUCTURE FOR RIGHT NOW. BUT WHAT'S REALLY HAPPENING IS THERE'S ACTUAL MONEY BEING PUT BEHIND THIS. IT'S NOT JUST HYPE OR PEOPLE TALKING ABOUT IT. THERE'S ACTUAL CAPITAL BEING PUT TO WORK. LOOK AT MICROSOFT, A 77% GROWTH FROM AZURE THAT CAME FROM AI. THAT'S A $4 BILLION BUSINESS FROM MICROSOFT TODAY, AND THAT'S NOT EVEN COUNTING BENEFITS FROM OFFICE CO-PILOT. ALTHOUGH IT IS VERY EARLY DAYS FOR GENERAL TIGGES AI, THERE'S REAL INTEREST AND REAL CAPITAL BEING PUT TO WORK. >> TED, WHAT DO YOU THINK? DO YOU THINK THIS AI NARRATIVE IS BACK ON TRACK FOR INVESTORS FOLLOWING THESE TWO RESULTS? >> THANK YOU. I DO AGREE WITH YOUR GUEST. WE'RE GOING THROUGH REALLY A GENERATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURED BY WITH RIGHT NOW A LOT OF SEMI-CONDUCTORS, A LOT OF NETWORK AS THE STACK GETS BUILT OUT. WE'RE SEEING THESE CAPEX NUMBERS. IF YOU LOOK WHERE GOOGLE SPENT THIS LAST PRINT, IT WAS $12 BILLION. MICROSOFT CAPEX WAS $14 BILLION. WHAT GIVES THEM BOTH THE ADVANTAGE IS THEIR DATA CENTER FOOTPRINT ALREADY EXISTS, AND THEIR INTERNAL EXPERTISE IN GENERATIVE AI, THEY'RE HITTING IT WITH A LITTLE DIFFERENT TAX WITH MICROSOFT INVESTING IN OPENAI, AND GOOGLE HAS A LOT OF INTERNAL A.I. BOTH ARE JUGGERNAUTS AND THIS MARKET IS STARTING ON THE INFRASTRUCTURE SIDE AND SOON WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE SOFTWARE LAYER PROBABLY IN 2025 ON THE ENTERPRISE SIDE. >> HOW SOON DO SOME OF THE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES THAT BOTH OF THESE COMPANIES, BUT SPECIFICALLY THE COMPANY YOU COVER, HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS NEED TO PAY OFF FOR THEM IN ORDER FOR INVESTORS TO REALLY REMAIN CONFIDENT? >> I THINK MICROSOFT IS IN A VERY UNIQUE SITUATION. THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE REAL AI REVENUE GOING BACK TO THE $4 BILLION AI NUMBER, ONE THING I THINK YOU MAY HAVE CAUGHT WHEN SUNDAR WAS TALKING ON THE CALL YESTERDAY, IT'S NOT JUST SERVER CAPACITY. IT'S THINGS LIKE POWER AND COOLING THAT THERE'S NOT ENOUGH OF. AS LONG AS THE AI NUMBER CONTINUES TO TICK UP, AS LONG AS YOU START TO SEE EVIDENCE OF THINGS LIKE OFFICE CO-PILOT TRACKING AHEAD OF E3 AND E5, I THINK INVESTORS WILL BE PATIENT WITH THAT CAPEX NUMBER. THAT'S WHY THEY'RE NOT BEING PUNISHED. THERE'S THE DEMAND TO BACK IT UP. IF THE DEMAND STARTED TO BE LIGHT, INVESTORS WOULD START TO LOOK AT THAT. >> I'M CURIOUS TO GET YOUR THOUGHTS ON THAT. I GUESS YOU COULD MAKE THE ARGUMENT THAT MICROSOFT AND GOOGLE ALPHABET FORECASTED IT BETTER THAN META DID. BUT, TIM, WHY DO YOU THINK WE SAW SUCH A DIFFERENT RESULT FROM META AND THE CAPEX AND THE RESULTS THEY'RE DOING THERE VERSUS WHAT WE'RE SEEING WITH MICROSOFT AND GOOGLE GIVEN THE MASSIVE BRAND THAT THEY HAVE ALSO PUT FORWARD IN INVESTMENTS AND AI? >> I THINK IT'S A GAME OF POSITIONING. META WAS EXTREMELY CROWDED GOING INTO THE PRINT. THERE ARE SOME PEOPLE THAT, QUITE FRANKLY, DIDN'T LIKE SOME OF THE UNPROFITABLE SPEND, BUT META IS ALMOST -- IS VERY ATTRACTIVE DOWN ON WHERE IT GOT HIT THE LAST FEW DAYS. I WOULD SAY TH, THOUGH, MICROSO HAS A HUGE ADVANTAGE JUST BECAUSE OF THEIR ENTERPRISE FOOTPRINT. RIGHT NOW WE'RE LOOKING AT FIVE MAJOR CLOUDS THAT ARE GOING TO CONSOLIDATE THIS GENERAL AI MACRO. ONE THING IT DOES HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF HEARTBURN WITH IS IF YOU LOOK AT ENTERPRISE SPEND ON THE I.T. SIDE, WE'RE UP ROUGHLY 3% PER YEAR. IT'S JUST NOT ALL A PANACEA OUT THERE. THEY HAVE TO FIND A RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL THAT MAKES THE GATE THAT THEY CAN FIND THE A.AND MAKE MONEY. I THINK ONE OF THE NEAR-TERM CALLS THAT WAS VERY INTERESTING AT THE END OF THE CALLS, THE CIO BASICALLY SAID, LISTEN, I'VE GOT MY CONSULTING REVENUES THAT ARE A LITTLE UNDER PRESSURE BECAUSE THEY'RE TRYING TO FIND THE COMPONENT TO THE JAEPTIVE AI. THEY'RE NOT THERE YET. IT'S COMING. IT'S A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE IT APPLIES. IT'S AGERNAUTJUGGERNAUT. >> AS WE WERE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE ELEMENTS AND LISTENS TO THE CALL AS WELL. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT JUMPS OUT IS THE MANAGEMENT AND HOW THIS COMPANY IS MANAGING SO MANY DIFFERENT ARMS AND BUSINESS AND WHETHER THAT BE LINKED IN. AI TOUCHES THAT. WHETHER IT'S CLOUD AND AI TOUCHES THAT. IT SEEMS LIKE THEY'RE SUCCESSFULLY WEAVING THAT IN, BUT THE PRICE NARRATIVE, HOW DO THEY PUT THAT IN SO THERE CERTAIN AN OFF-TURN OF SERVICES, THAT THEY'VE REALLY STARTED TO INTRODUCE TO THEIR CLIENT BASE? >> YEAH. I THINK IT VARIES FROM PRODUCT. BUT I THINK YOU'RE EXACTLY RIGHT. WITH MICROSOFT, THE STRATEGY IS TO BRING THE ENTIRE PRODUCT FORWARD. THE FACT THAT IT GOES BACK TO 2019, YEARS BEFORE WE HEARD OF ChatGPT TO BEGIN WITH, FROM MY PERSPECTIVE, MICROSOFT IS GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WITH CO-PILOT. DEVELOPERS ARE 30% TO 40% MORE PRODUCTIVE BECAUSE OF THAT. I THINK THAT NUMBER WILL GO UP OVER TIME. SAME WITH OFFICE CO-PILOT. IT'S BEING PRICED AT A LEVEL OF ANY ENTERPRISE. AS LONG AS IT CAN GET PAST THE SECURITY AND GOVERNANCE CONCERNS, I WOULD SAY THIS IS WORTH IT AS LONG AS THE BENEFITS ARE THERE. IN OTHER AREAS, I THINK THEY'LL GIVE IT AWAY. DYNAMICS, I THINK THEY CAN BRING IT IN. IT REALLY IS GOING TO VARY FROM STRATEGY, BUT ULTIMATELY, WHETHER IT'S DIRECT OR INDIRECT, AI WILL CONTRIBUTE REAL REVENUE. EVEN IF YOU THINK ABOUT OFFICE CO-PILOT, IF IT CAN TRACK TO ANYWHERE CLOSE TO EI ADOPTION, IN THE NEXT THREE YEARS, AI CAN BE A MULTI-BILLION-DOLLAR BUSINESS. >> TED MORTONSON, SECTOR STRATEGIST AND RISHI JALURIA. THANKS FOR TAKING THE TIME. I APPRECIATE IT, GUYS. >>> WE'RE ALSO WATCHING TWO ENERGY GIANTS. EXXONMOBIL AND CHEVRON BOTH SEES PRODUCTS DECLINE. BOTH HAVE SEEN REVENUE FALL 4% FROM A YEAR AGO AS A RISE IN OIL PRICES FAILS TO OFFSET OTHERS IN THE ENERGY SPACE. INES FERRE HAS MORE. >> THE COMPANY SAID IMPACT FROM DERIVATIVES AND NONCASH CHARGES CONTRIBUTED TO LOWER EARNINGS. WALL STREET NOTICED A DECLINE IN THE SEGMENT PROFIT. HOWEVER, THE BALANCE SHEET IS EXTREMELY HEALTHY. MEANWHILE CHEVRON'S FIRST QUARTER CAME IN, BEATING WALL STREET ESTIMATES. THAT'S STILL DOWN ROUGHLY 17% FROM THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. CHEVRON IS SAYING THE FIRST QUARTER 2024 EARNINGS DECREASED BECAUSE OF LOWER MARGINS AND BECAUSE OF LOWER GAS REALIZATIONS PARTLY OFFSET BY SALES IN THE U.S. NATURAL GAS PRICES HAVE PLUMMETED THIS PAST YEAR, DOWN ROUGHLY 34% YEAR TO DATE. THE EXPECTATION FOR THIS QUARTER IS EARNINGS WILL RISE ON A YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS AND NOT A LOT OF COLOR WAS GIVEN TO THE TIMELINE ON THE CHEVRON ON THE HESS DEAL. HESS REPORTED A 70% BOOST IN PRODUCTION THIS QUARTER. EXXON ALSO SAW RECORD PRODUCTION IN GUYANA, SO IT'S PROVING TO BE A VERY VALUABLE ASSET. >>> TRACKING XLM AND CVX. THANKS. >>> WE'RE JUST GETTING STARTED ON THE MORNING BRIEF. COMING UP, INTEL SHARES FALLING AFTER THE COMPANY FELL SHORT ON THE REVENUE OUTLOOK. WE'VE GOT THE DETAILS ON THAT. LATER CEO PAT GEL SINGER WILL JOIN US. THAT'S AN INTERVIEW YOU WILL NOT WANT TO MISS. >>> SHARES OF SNAP BEATING ESTIMATES ON THE TOP AND BOTTOM LINE. WE'LL EXPLAIN ON THE COMPANY'S ADVERTISING. >>> AND LATER ON, WHAT KIND OF PHONE CAN YOU OWN FOR $1 MILLION? STICK AROUND. YOU'RE WATCHING "YAHOO! FINANCE." >>> LET'S TALK HERE ON THE DAY. SNAP SHARES SURGING THIS MORNING, UP 25% AFTER REPORTING REVENUE JUMPED 21% IN THE FIRST QUARTER FROM A YEAR AGO. THEY GAVE AN UPBEAT UPDATE, SEEING DAILY ACTIVE USERS CLIMBED TO 142 MILLION. TWO THINGS TO BREAK DOWN, WE TYPICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW QUARTERS HAVE SEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT GAP-UP, GAP-DOWNS, DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS ESPECIALLY WITH THE TIME SPENT ON THE PLATFORM AND THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE REMAINING AND HOW THEY'RE GROWING OUT TO THE PLATFORM AS WELL. IT'S COME TO SOME OF THE INVESTMENTS THEY'VE MADE WITH REGARD TO AI OR MIXED REALITY OR ADVERTISERS WANTING TO OVERFLOW INTO IT. THERE'S ANOTHER THING IN TIKTOK. IF YOU SEE A MASSIVE OR SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TIKTOK'S ABILITY TO OPERATE IN THE U.S., SNAP COULD BE A BENEFICIARY. >> EXACTLY. WE'VE HEARD THAT FROM A NUMBER OF ANALYSTS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT WAS A BIG SURPRISE THAT DAILY USERS ROSE, A CLIMB OF 10%. SOME OF THESE RESULTS ARE KIND OF OFFSETTING THE FEAR THAT HAS BEEN SURROUNDING THE STOCK FOR SO LONG WHEN IT COMES TO THE GROWTH NARRATIVE, WHAT EXACTLY THAT LOOKS LIKE HERE FOR SNAP GOING FORWARD. WE KNOW HE'S REALLY WORKED TO RESHAPE THE COMPANY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS, AND JUDGING JUST FROM THIS PRINT, THAT TURNAROUND STARTING TO TAKE EFFECT. THEY DID DOWNSIDE THEIR HEAD COUNT. THEY'VE BEEN SLASHING PROJECTS THAT WEREN'T BOOSTING THEIR BOTTOM LINES. SO THEY'VE BEEN REALLOCATING RESOURCES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL QUARTERS. ALSO, BRAD HI, YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT REWORKING THEIR ADVERTISING BUSINESS. A NUMBER OF THEIR INITIATIVES STARTING TO PAY OFF. WE'VE SEEN THE STOCK POP. IT'S ALWAYS A WILD EARNING. THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE INVESTORS ARE PLEASED BY THE RESULTS. LET'S QUICKLY TAKE A LOOK AT ROKU BECAUSE SHARES ARE FALLING AFTER THE COMPANY WARNED THAT THE FINANCIAL BENEFITS ARE STARTING TO FADE, QUOTE, SENDING A HIGHER MAKESHIFT TOWARD ADS. THEY FORECAST HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SALES FOR THE CURRENT QUARTER. YOU'RE STILL, THOUGH, LOOKING AT LOSSES OF JUST ABOUT 3%. I THINK A LOT OF THAT HAS TO DO WITH INCREASED COMPETITION. I WAS LOOKING FOR THE IMMEDIATE REACTION FROM SOME OF THE ANALYSTS. STEVE WAS SAYING THE RIVAL INCREASE FROM MORE AD TIER STREAMERS COULD POST A RISK AT LEAST IN THE STHORT TERM. >> IT'S BRINGING ME BACK TO VIBES OR CONVERSATIONS WE WERE HAVING YESTERDAY WITH REGARD TO COMCAST AND WHAT THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT WITH THEIR STREAMING BUSINESS AS WELL. THE ADVERTISING MARKETING EXPENSES THAT YOU HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IN ORDER TO MAKE SURE YOU'RE BRINGING ON MORE CUSTOMERS. SO CUSTOMER ACQUISITION COSTS GO UP. TOTAL MARGIN WAS DOWN BY ABOUT 1.5 BASIS POINTS OR 1.5 POINTS THEY SAY. ALL RIGHT. TAKING A LOOK AT THE OPENING BELL HERE ON WALL STREET. AND THEN ADDITIONALLY IN MIDTOWN MANHATTAN AT THE NASDAQ. TAKING A LOOK AT THE BELL RINGERS HERE, I CAN'T SEE THE NAMES ANYMORE BECAUSE THEY'VE GONE AWAY. THERE'S THE NYC ONE. THE DOW, S&P, AND NASDAQ, THEY'RE IN LINE. THE NASDAQ IS CALIBRATING AND IT'S HIGHER BY ABOUT 1.4% HERE THIS MORNING. >> THE MAJOR MARKET OR BROADER MARKETS REALLY GETTING A BOOST FROM SOME OF THE EARNING RESULT WES GOT LAST NIGHT. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE GAINS IN MICROSOFT, ESPECIALLY THE GAINS IN GOOGLE, A HUGE UPSIDE AT THE OPEN. THAT'S SOME OF THE MOVEMENT WE'RE SEEING TO THE UPSIDE. IT'S IMPORTANT TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE YIELDS. WE HAVE THEM FALLING BACK OFF OF THE ELEVATED LEVELS OF THE PCE. YOU'VE GOT THE TEN-YEAR OFF JUST ABOUT THREE BASIS POINTS IN EARLY ACTION. >>> LET'S GET TO MORE COVERAGE HERE. SOME OF THE MOVERS WE'RE WATCHING. JARED BLIKRE STANDING BY. >> I WILL GET TO THE EQUITIES. THIS IS S&P 500 BACK TO THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. BLUE LINE IS A 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE. WE HAVE A 20-DAY, WHICH IS ABOUT TO CROSS OVER. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WHERE THE RUB IRMEETS THE ROAD IS 5120 TO 5130. THAT'S SOMEWHERE UP HERE AND WE'RE NOT THERE QUITE YET. IF WE DO RALLY, I WANT TO WATCH THAT LEVEL VERY CLOSELY. ALSO TAKING AING LOO AT BOND YIELDS, YOU WERE SAYING THE 10EER CLIMBING TO THE HIGHEST, WE HAD SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRICES YESTERDAY, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, WE'RE LOOKING AT HIGHER PRICES ON THE YEAR. THAT CAN WEIGH IN ON STOCKS AS WELL. LOOKING INSIDE SOME OF THE SECTOR ACTION, HERE'S WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY. COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES, THAT'S THE HOME OF ALPHABET, META. TECH IS ALSO DOING WELL. THEY'RE THE ONLY TWO OUTPERFORMERS. SECTOR TO THE DOWNSIDE. THE COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES SECTOR, HERE'S A FIVE-YEAR CLART. THIS TOOK A DEEP HIT, AND THAT WAS LARGELY ON META WEAKNESS BUT ALSO ALPHABET WEAKNESS, AND NOW IT'S BACK UP TO WHERE WE STARTED IN 2021. THOSE ARE RECORD HIGHS. WE WANT TO WATCH THE PRICE ACTION CAREFULLY AROUND THERE. THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE HANDLE FOR THIS, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO SEE. I DID MENTION COMMODITIES. I WANT TO SHOW YOU A ONE-MONTH TRAILING CHART HERE. A LOT MORE WINNERS THAN LOSERS. COFFEE UP 18.5. BUT ALUMINUM, COPPER, WHEAT, COCOA, SILVER, GOLD, HOGS, THESE ARE ALL SURGING HIGHER. THIS IS A MONTH WHERE STOCKS HAVE FALLEN BY THE WAYSIDE IN COMMODITIES THAT HAVE TAKEN OVER. >> THANK YOU FOR GIVING US A CLOSER LOOK. >>> COMING UP, KEEP IT HERE ON "YAHOO! FINANCE." WE'LL TELL YOU WHY THERE'S A HOTTER THAN INFLATION PRINT. WE'LL TELL YOU WHY WHEN WE COME BACK. >>> MARKETS SHRUGGINGO OFF A HOTTER THAN EXPECTED PCI THIS WEEK. IT'S BEEN THE INFLATION PRINT AND GDP PRINT WE GOT YESTERDAY, BUT ALSO BIG TECH EARNINGS. THAT HAS REALLY PUSHED SOME OF THOSE MAJOR AVERAGES HIGHER. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHERE THINGS STAND TODAY ON THAT. IT'S GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE. TALK TO US. BEFORE WE GET INTO EARNINGS, MORE SPECIFICALLY, HOW ARE YOU LOOKING AT THIS CPE PRINT AND WHAT ARE YOU SIGNALING WHEN WE FACTOR IN THE POTENTIAL FED DECISION DOWN THE LINE? >> THANKS, SEANA. GREAT TO BE HERE. WE CONSIDER THE CPI PRINT ESSENTIALLY IN LINE. IT WAS BRACED FOR SOMETHING WORSE THAT WAS IN YOUNG'S REPORT. WE THINK THAT THAT'S REALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THE MARKETS HERE AND HELPS STABILIZE SOME OF THE SENTIMENT THAT'S BEEN BUILDING IN RECENT WEEKS. >> CAN STRONG EARNINGS, IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT, ESPECIALLY KNOWING WE'RE GOING TO HAVE SOME MORE MAG SEVEN NAMES REPORTING, CAN STRONG EARNINGS OFFSET OR ALLOW INVESTORS THE OPPORTUNITY TO KIND OF DIMINISH THE ROLE OF THE FED OR FADE THE FED RISK OR HEADWIND AND LEAN INTO WHAT THE CEOs ARE SAYING ABOUT THE MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL? >> WE DEFINITELY THINK THE GROWTH EARNINGS ARE IMPORTANT AND THE PROJECTIONS ARE PORT. SINCE WE'RE LOOKING AT STABILIZATION AND UPSIDE GAINS, I THINK WE HAVE A MORE INHERENT PUSH IN GROURKT. I THINK IT'S GOING TO ACCELERATE IN THE SECOND HALF. WITH INFLATION BEING A LITTLE STICKIER AND THE SLOW PATH DOWN, WE DO THINK IT MEANS A LITTLE MORE OF A CHOPPY MARKET, BUT WE THINK THE GROWTH AS IT ACCELERATES IN THE SECOND HALF OR IS SET TO ACCELERATE IN THE SECOND HALF, WILL HELP TO UNDERPIN A HEALTHY MARKET. >> YUNG-YU, DOES THAT THEN LEAVE 5% YIELDS THE PLAY? >> 5% 10E-YEAR YIELDS ARE DEFINITELY IN PLAY. WE THINK OVER THE LONG TERM THEY EUCON DOWN, BUT THE PATH IS SOMEWHAT SLOW. WE THINK THE GROWTH WILL ACCELERATE IN THE SECOND HALF. YOU COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEF SITS AND FUNDING NEEDS OF THE GOVERNMENT, WE THINK TEN-YEAR YIELDS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO DRIFT UPWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR, AND THAT'S PART OF THE INHERENT PUSH AND PULL WE SEE HAPPENING IN THE MARKETS THAT YOU CAN'T GET TOO ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT GROWTH IF SOME OF THAT GROWTH STARTS PUSHING UP THE YIELDS A LITTLE HIGHER. >> DOES THAT PUSH AND PULL MEAN A SOFT LANDING IS ALREADY HAPPENING ON YOU? >> WE THINK SO. WE THINK IT'S IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR DESPITE THE HEADLINE NUMBER COMING IN SOFT. WE THINK THE BUSINESS SPENDING LOOKS HEALTHY. WE THINK THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR IS GOING TO BE DRIVEN BY BOTH THE STABLE CONSUMER, BUT THEN BUSINESS SPENDING ACCELERATING. SO WE'RE ACTUALLY PUTTING A STAMP ON THE SOFT LANDING AND THINK THE THING TO LOOK FORWARD TO IS WHERE THE GROWTH IS GOING TO COME FROM AND HOW STRONG THESE A.I. AND PRODUCTIVITY THEMES ARE GOING TO BE FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR. >> IF WE DID SEE THAT, HOW DOES THAT NOT CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE INFLATION REARS ITS HEAD ONCE AGAIN? >> YEAH, THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. WE DO THINK THE PATH FOR INFLATION COMING DOWN IS GOING TO BE SLOW, BUT IF YOU THINK OF WHAT SOME OF THE DRIVERS ARE, WAGE GROWTH ISN'T ACCELERATING ANYMORE. ALSO COMPONENTS SUCH AS SHELTER ARE LIKELY TO COME DOWN IN THE NEXT FEW QUARTERS. WE HAVE ELEMENTS SUCH AS WITHIN THE INFLATION COMPONENTS. INSURANCE HAS BEEN VERY STICKY. HEALTH CARE LOOKS LIKE IT'S BEEN STICKY AS WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO BE A LONG ROAD, BUT WE THINK ULTIMATELY PART OF THAT GROWTH WE GET IS GOING TO BE IN GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVITY THAT HELPS TO SOFTEN THE INFLATION A LITTLE BIT. >> I GUESS IMPROVEMENTS WE COULD SEE DRIVEN ABOUT BY AI. I WANT TO GET YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE AI INVESTMENT STORY BECAUSE IT SEEMS LIKE THE INVESTORS WERE A BIT SKEPTICAL OR THE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY AHEAD OF EARNINGS. WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT GOOGLE RESULTS AND MICROSOFT, DOES THAT THEN LEAD THE AI INVESTMENT STORY? IS THAT INTACT? IS THERE STILL THE OPPORTUNITY THERE? >> I THINK THE AI INVESTMENT STORY IS INTACT. THE ENTHUSIASM IS GOING TO COME IN WAVES. THE DATA IS NOT GOING TO BE A CONSISTENT STEADY FLOW, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE MEDIUM TERM TRAJECTORY AND LONGER TERM TRAJ TRAJECTORY, THE SPENDING THAT'S GOING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE BOARD BY COMPANIES LOOKING FOR WAYS TO IMPROVE PRODUCTIVITY, LOOKING FOR WAYS TO IMPROVE AI AND THEIR BUSINESS, I THINK THIS HAS A VERY LONG RUNWAY. SO DESPITE THE WAYS THAT MIGHT COME FOR THE ENTHUSIASM AND SOMETIMES THOSE WAVES CAN INCLUDE A BIT OF AN EBB IN THE SLOWDOWN, OVERALL WE THINK DIRECTIONALLY, THAT ENTHUSIASM, THE STRENGTH OF THAT SPENDING IS GOING TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARKET SHARES THIS YEAR. >> THANKS SO MUCH FOR THE TIME THIS MORNING. REALLY APPRECIATE IT. >> THANKS, BRAD. >>> COMING UP, EXXON AND CHEVRON BOTH OUT WITH THEIR EARNINGS THIS MORNING. WE'LL BREAK IT ALL DOWN FOR YOU NEXT. THIS MORNING AFTER FIRST QUARTER RESULTS MISSED EXPECTATIONS HERE FOR THE COMPANIES. NOW, THE IMPACT OF WHEAT AND NATURAL GASES WEIGHING IN ON THE RES RESULTS. IT'S IMPORTANT TO DISTINGUISH SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES WE'RE SEEING WITHIN THE REPORTS. I WANT TO START OFF WITH SHEVG RON. INVESTORS DON'T SEEM TO BE TOO IMPRESSED. PROFIT DID TOP EXPECTATIONS BUT SALES MISSED. I'M CURIOUS YOUR REACTION TO WHAT WE'RE SEEING PLAY OUT IN THE MARKET AND WHAT THIS SIGNALS FOR CHEVRON AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. >> THANKS FOR HAVING ME. I WOULD SAY IT'S NOT A TOTAL SURPRISE. WHEN YOU LOOK AT YEAR-OVER-YEAR PRICES, YOU WOULD LOOK AT GAS PRICES, OIL PRICES, EVEN REFINING MARGINS. WE KNEW THEY WERE GOING TO GO DOWN. MIDTERM, THERE'S STILL A LITTLE PRESSURE ON THAT. BUT, I THINK, IF NATURAL GAS PRICES RALLY AS THE STRIP INDICATES THEY SHOULD OR WOULD NEXT YEAR AND OIL PRICES REMAIN FIRM, I THINK BOTH EXXON AND CHEVRON WILL SETTLE QUITE NICELY. >> IT'S INTERESTING. THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT WHAT SEEMS LIKE SOME OF THEIR COST MANAGEMENT STRATEGY AS WELL EXITING FROM CERTAIN BUSINESS THAN THE EXISTING BUSINESSES THAT THEY DO HAVE, WHERE THEY'RE MAKING FURTHER INVESTMENTS, WHERE DOES THAT -- THIS SEEMS TO BE THE THEME -- LEAVE THE CAPITAL DIVIDENDS THEY'RE PUTTING IN FOR NEXT YEAR, THAT EXXON HAS PUT IN BY 2027 IN ACCUMULATIVE SAVINGS? HOW MUCH DO THEY HAVE TO SPEND IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE CALCULATIONS AS WELL? >> IT'S A GOOD QUESTION. YOU KNOW, YOU'RE RIGHT. NOW ALL THESE COMPANIES ARE LOOKING AT THE FLAT PRODUCTION PROFILE, CHEVRON AND EXXON ARE NOT UNIQUE, BUT WHAT'S UNIQUE ABOUT EXXON, THEY TALKED ABOUT ACHIEVING $10 BILLION IN SAVINGS ON THE WAY TO THEIR GOAL OF $15 BILLION IN SAVINGS THROUGH 2027. I CERTAINLY THINK WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO HIT THAT. SO, YOU KNOW, WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO SEE IS JUST KIND OF FLAT -- ON A FLAT SPIN. BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, I THINK THE KEY FOR THESE COMPANIES CONTINUES TO BE FREE CASH FLOW AND WHAT THEY'RE ABEL TO PAY OUT OR RETURN TO INVESTORS. BOTH OF THESE COMPANIES TURNED OVER $6 BILLION THIS QUARTER. AGAIN, YOU LOOK AT EXXON. THEY PAID OUT 101% OF THEIR FREE CASH FLOW. CHEVRON PAID OUT OVER 120% OF THEIR FREE CASH FLOW. I THINK THE KEY IS THEY'LL RECEIVE RETURNS FROM BOTH OF THESE. >> THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT STRONG EXECUTION TO NAME WITH ONE OF THE REGIONS HERE, TWHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THE NUMBERS WE'RE EXPECTING IN THE CURRENT QUARTER AND THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR, IS THAT GOING TO BE A CONTINUATION OF WHAT WE SAW IN THE FIRST QUARTER? >> THAT'S RIGHT. IT'S VERY, VERY SLIGHT GROWTH. AGAIN, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE BIG GROWTH AS YOU POINTED OUT IN THE PER PERMIAN. THAT'S GOING TO KEEP IT OVERALL FLAT. IF YOU LOOK AT THE PROJECTS COMING ON THROUGH 2027 ON A GROSS BASIS, WHICH EXXON HAS 45% OF THIS, THAT COULD DO ALMOST 1. BILLION BARRELS A DAY. YOU THINK THAT THE U.S. ALONE IS DOING ABOUT 13 BILLION BARRELS. THIS IS ENCROACHING ON WHAT THE U.S. ALONE COULD DO WITH THIS PROJECT BY 2027. THAT'S WHY IT'S OBVIOUSLY A BIG DEAL ON THIS LITIGATION BETWEEN CHEVRON AND EXXON ON THE HESS DEAL. I CANNOT SAY ENOUGH ABOUT THIS GHANA PROJECT. IT'S A MEGA PROJECT TO SAY THE LEAST. >> HOW DO SOME OF THE NEW PROJECTS THAT EITHER OF THESE COMPANIES ARE TALKING ABOUT GET THEM CLOSER TO SOME OF THE TARGETS THAT THEY AS WELL AS SOME OF THEIR PARTNER COMPANIES HAVE TALKED ABOUT WITH REGARD TO CLEANER ENERGYSOLUTIONS IN THE FUTURE? >> I ASKED THAT TODAY. IT'S INTERESTING. THEY STILL HAVE ADVANCED RECYCLING. THERE'S A LOT OF THINGS THEY DO ON THAT, BUT, AGAIN, IT'S STILL A PRETTY SMALL AMOUNT OF TOTAL CAPITAL SPEND. SIMPLE REASON BEING THE RETURNS ARE NOT AS NEAR AS THEY ARE IN THE UPSTREAM OR EVEN THE DOWNSTREET FOR THAT MATTER. AGAIN, I THINK THEY ARE GOING IN THAT DIRECTION. DO I THINK IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE YEARS IT WILL BE CLOSE TO 20, 25%? ABSOLUTELY NOT. BUT THEY CONTINUE TO LOOK AT DIFFERENT TYPES OF PROJECTS ON THAT SCALE. BUT THEY'RE ALSO LOOKING AT THEY HAVE TO GAIN A RETURN THAT IS COMMENSURATE TO THEIR PROJECTS. >> NEAL, GOOD TO SEE YOU. THANKS SO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME. >>> COMING UP, WE'VE GOT THE BULLISH TAKES FOR MICROSOFT AND ALPHABET ON THE OTHER SIDE. THE BACK OF ALF FA BACK AND MICROSOFT'S EARNINGS REPORTS, BOTH COMPANIES GETTING HIGHER TARGETS FROM BOTH THIS MORNING. THE COMMENTARY WAS POSITIVE WITH MOST OF THE STREET ENTHUSED ABOUT THE AI OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH OF THE TECH GIANTS, AND META PROBABLY SOMEWHERE SAYING WHAT GIVES, BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, YOU'VE GOT A LOT OF REVIEWS HERE, POSITIVE ON THESE EARNINGS RESULTS. WE'LL START WITH ALPHABET HERE. ONE THAT STOOD OUT TO ME, A JEFFERIES ANALYST SAYING THE SHARES ARE TRADING AS AN ATTRACTIVE ACCELERATION. AND AD AND CLOUD REVENUES WERE A BRIGHT SPOT. HERE'S WHAT'S INTERESTING. THE CAPEX COMES UP FOR HIM AND HE REMAINS WARY OF THAT. WE'LL SEE. THAT JUMPING POTENTIALLY 50% THIS YEAR FUELED BY SOME OF THE AI INVESTMENTS. >> IT STUCK OUT WITH ME BECAUSE THE OVERALL SENTIMENT ARE KIND OF BRUSHING OFF THE MASSIVE INCREASE WE SEE IN CAPEX SPENDING. WHAT WE'RE SEEING -- WE'RE TALKING ABOUT IT TODAY -- WITH ALPHABET AND GOOGLE. WE HEARD FROM RISHI JALURIA BEFORE. IT HAS SEEN UP UNTIL THIS POINT YOU TALK ABOUT THE GROWTH OPPORTUNITY GOING FORWARD. BANK OF AMERICA IS SAYING ALPHABET IS STILL WELL POSITIONED FOR THE LONG TERM. THEY HAVE AN OUTPERFORMED RATING ON THE STOCK RIGHT NOW, ALTHOUGH, THEY DID KEEP THEIR BUY RATING ON THE STOCK. THEY KEPT IT AT 200 BUCKS A SHARE. OVERALL YOU CAN SEE IT CLEARLY REFLECTED IN THE INVESTMENT HERE. WHEN IT COMES TO THE ANALYSTS, EXTREMELY PLEASED WITH WHAT THEY GOT OUT OF ALPHABET. THEY'RE BRACING THEMSELVES AFTER THE RESULTS FROM LAST NIGHT, WHETHER OR NOT META WAS A REALITY CHECK WITH OTHER BIG NAMES. BUT YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE THE DIFFERENCES HERE WITH SOME OF THE COSTS AND WHAT THAT ULTIMATELY MEANS FOR THEIR BOTTOM LINES HERE AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. >>> NOW FLIPPING OVER TO MICROSOFT, A SIMILAR SORT OF A STORY THERE. WE'RE SEEING SHARES MOVE TO THE UPSIDE. WE SAW AN INCREASE IN CAPEX, BUT THE STREET OKAY WITH THAT. YOU CAN SEE IT CLEARLY PAYING OFF WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE AZURE NUMBERS. WE'RE SEEING SOMETHING THAT THE STREET HAD BEEN LOOKING FOR NOW WITHIN THIS QUARTER, SO THE EXPECTATION FOR THIS TO CONTINUE AND THE EXPECTATION FOR AI TO CONTRIBUTE EVEN MORE TO THAT GROWTH STORY DOWN THE LINE HAS MANY NAMES, TWO ON YOUR SCREEN RIGHT NOW, WELLS FARGO AND JPMORGAN. >> MORGAN STANLEY ALSO WITHIN THAT GROUP HERE, AND THE ANALYST KEITH WEISS ALSO SAYING IN ADDITION HERE THAT HE SEES THE CLEAREST EVIDENCE YET OF THE TECH COMPANY'S AI DOMINANCE HERE IN MICROSOFT AND ALSO WITH THE AI INNOVATION CYCLE JUST STARTING. HE SEES PLENTY OF RUNWAY FOR GROWTH HERE FOR MSFT. THIS IS SEEMING LIKE A FAVOR-TOOL BASEBALL PLAYER, MICROSOFT. >>> WE'VE GOT A LOT MORE AND WHAT'S KEEPING INFLATION STICKY. PLUS BRIAN SOZZI WILL BE SITTING DOWN WITH NEWEL L BRANDS'S CHRIS PETERSEN. >> AND WE'LL BREAK DOWN TECHNOLOGY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO. >>> PAT GELSINGER AT 11:20 EASTERN TIME. DON'T GO ANYWHERE. YOU DON'T WANT TO MISS IT. >>> WELCOME BACK TO YAHOO! FINANCE. I'M SEANA SMITH ALONGSIDE BRAD SMITH. WE ARE 30 MINUTES INTO THE TRADING DAY. LET'S GET TO OUR BIG STORIES HERE THAT WE ARE WATCHING. STOCKS, HOLDING ON TO GAINS TO END THE WEEK WITH INFLATION, SHOWING LITTLE SIGNS OF EASING. PCE, CORE PCE, INCREASING 2.8% FROM A YEAR AGO FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. THAT WAS HOTTER THAN WHAT THE STREET WAS EXPECTING. STOCKS, THOUGH, STILL MOVING TO THE UPSIDE. A LOT OF THAT HAD ALREADY BEEN PRICED IN. WE ALSO GOT THE STRONG RESULTS OUT FROM ALPHABET AND MICROSOFT AFTER THE BELL YESTERDAY. >>> AND THE BILLS ARE COMING FOR THOSE TECH COMPANIES. THE LATEST RESULTS FROM ALPHABET AND MICROSOFT SHOWING BOTH BIG TECH COMPANIES HAD RECORD CAPITAL EXPENDITURES IN THEIR MARCH QUARTERS, BUT UNLIKE META, BOTH COMPANIES HAD STRONG EARNINGS DRIVEN BY GROWTH IN THEIR CLOUD SECTORS. VERY INTERESTING HERE. >>> AND ALSO, THE ENERGY SECTOR, UNDER SOME PRESSURE THIS MORNING. EXXONMOBIL AND CHEVRON FALLING AS BOTH COMPANIES REPORT PROFIT DECLINES IN THE FIRST QUARTER. BOTH COMPANIES ARE ALSO GETTING HIT BY DECLINING NAT GAS PRICES AND REFINING MARGINS, AND YOU CAN SEE LOSSES THERE. CHEVRON, MOVING OFF BY JUST ABOUT 0.5%, EXXON OFF NEARLY 3%. >>> WE WANT TO GET TO BREAKING NEWS THAT WE GOT OUT HERE THIS MORNING, TOP OF THE HOUR, ON CONSUMER SENTIMENT. WE HAVE GOT THAT DATA COMING IN, SLIGHTLY LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED HERE. FINAL READING OF 77.9. THE INDEX HAD BEEN AT 79.4 THE PRIOR MONTH HERE, AND DIGGING INTO SOME OF THESE EXPECTATIONS HERE, EXPECTED CHANGE IN MEDIAN PRICES DURING THE NEXT YEAR. THAT ROSE TO 3.2% VERSUS 2.9% THE PRIOR MONTH. ALSO, CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, THAT INDEX FALLING TO 79 VERSUS 82.5 THE PRIOR MONTH, SO A BIT OF A COOLING, IT LOOKS LIKE, ON THIS FINAL READING OF THE CONSUMER, OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX HERE FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL. >> TAKING A LOOK AT THE MARKET REACTION AS OF RIGHT NOW, YOU'RE STILL SEEING GAINS ACROSS THE BOARD HERE. A LOT OF WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE PCE NUMBER EARLIER THIS MORNING AS WE DID SEE SOME WAFFLING. HOWEVER, OUT OF THE GATE, WE WERE HIGHER EXCEPT FOR THE DOW, WHICH WAS TRYING TO MAKE UP ITS MIND. AS OF NOW, WE'VE MOVED HIGHER FROM THOSE LEVELS, THE NASDAQ LEADING THE PACK ON A PERCENTAGE GAIN BASIS. YOU'RE SEEING THAT UP BY 1.7%. THE DOW HAS FIRMLY ENTERED INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY. THAT'S UP BY ABOUT 0.5%, AND THE S&P 500 SEEING GAINS AS WELL OF ABOUT 1%. >>> THE LATEST CORE PCE READING SHOWING THAT PRICES INCREASED MORE THAN WALL STREET EXPECTED IN MARCH. THE RECENT INFLATION REPORTS WE'VE BEEN SEEING ARE DAMPENING INVESTOR EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FED'S INTEREST RATE CUTS. HOW READINGS COULD REIGNITE THE RATE HIKE, ACCORDING TO OUR NEXT GUEST FROM STIFEL. IT'S GREAT TO SEE YOU. YOUR REACTION TO THE PRINT THAT WE'RE GETTING HERE THIS MORNING. YES, IT SHOWS THAT INFLATION DOES REMAIN MAYBE A BIT HOTTER THAN WHAT THE FED ANTICIPATES OR WOULD LIKE TO SEE AT THIS POINT, BUT NOT REALLY RINGING TOO MANY ALARM BELLS YET, IS THAT RIGHT? >> WELL, YOU'RE RIGHT. IT WASN'T NECESSARILY A MATERIAL INCREASE, BUT THIS IS SIGNIFICANT FOR THE FED, WHO WAS EXPECTING -- THAT WAS EXPECTING A SIZABLE REVERSAL IN THIS DISINFLATIONARY TREND, WHICH, AS OF THE START OF THE YEAR NOW, HAS NOT ONLY ARRESTED, BUT WE'VE STARTED TO SEE MOUNTING PRICE PRESSURES MOVING THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION, AWAY FROM THE FED'S 2% TARGET. SO, FOR A FED DESPERATE TO PROVIDE RELIEF, THIS IS FAR FROM THE IDEAL CONDITIONS WHEN WE TALK ABOUT RISING PRODUCER, CONSUMER, OR THE PCE AS WE SAW THIS MORNING. SO, THIS IS GOING TO COMPLICATE THEIR OUTLOOK AND POTENTIALLY DELAY ANY CONVERSATION ABOUT NEAR-TERM RATE CUTS, AND I THINK IT'S GOING TO, AT THE VERY LEAST, PUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-ENGAGEMENT AND FURTHER RATE HIKES BACK ON THE TABLE. >> YOU KNOW, IT'S REALLY INTERESTING, LINDSEY, ESPECIALLY WHEN WE PAIR TOGETHER ALL OF THE ECONOMIC DATA READINGS WE'VE GOT THIS MORNING, AND WE WERE MENTIONING CONSUMER SENTIMENT. IT SEEMS RIGHT NOW, CONSUMERS CONTINUING TO EXPRESS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF THE ECONOMY, PENDING THE OUTCOMES OF THINGS LIKE THE ELECTION. YOU'VE GOT EXOGENOUS THREATS THAT WE NEVER KNOW UNTIL THEY HAPPEN. ALL THESE THINGS CONSIDERED, IS THERE ANY DAMPENING OF THE DEMAND ENVIRONMENT THAT WE'RE HEARING ABOUT FROM COMPANIES RIGHT NOW THAT WE SEE DETERIORATING FURTHER OR DOES THE RESILIENCY LOOK LIKE IT'S GOING TO REMAIN INTACT? >> THE CONSUMER DOES APPEAR TO BE RESILIENT, CONTINUING TO SPEND ON PARTICULARLY SERVICES IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. AS WE SAW WITH THIS MORNING'S NUMBER, THE CONSUMER, STILL SPENDING AT AN ANNUAL PACE, UP NEAR 6%, BUT WHEN WE PARSE THROUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS, AS WE SAW IN THE GDP REPORT, CONSUMERS ARE BEING MORE CHOOSEY ON WHERE THOSE DOLLARS ARE BEING ALLOCATED, SO NOT ALL BUSINESSES, NOT ALL SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY ARE FARING EQUALLY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. SO, THAT BEING SAID, BROAD BASED GROWTH HAS SLOWED AS MOMENTUM HAS SLOWED. CONSUMERS ARE SPENDING, BUT THEY'RE DOING SO AT A NOTICEABLY SLOWER PACE, AND SO AS A RESULT, GROWTH, TOPLINE GDP HAS COME DOWN FROM 5% TO 3% AT THE END OF THE YEAR, LET'S CALL IT, TO NOW BELOW 2% AS OF THE START OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE SIGNS OF FATIGUE, BUT THE CONSUMER, AS THE BACKBONE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE THE STRONGEST SUPPORT TO GROWTH GOING FORWARD BEFORE AND LINDSEY, THAT SOUNDS LIKE SOMETHING YOU EXPECT TO CONTINUE HERE, AT LEAST FOR THE COMING QUARTERS IF I'M UNDERSTANDING THAT CORRECTLY. SO, WHAT DOES THAT THEN TELL US ABOUT THE ULTIMATE TIMING FOR RATE CUT, HOW UNLIKELY OR LIKELY IT COULD BE HERE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR? >> WELL, I THINK IT COMES DOWN TO THE PERFORMANCE OF INFLATION. IF INFLATION STABILIZES AT THE CURRENT LEVELS OR EVEN TICKS UP, MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, I THINK BY THE END OF THE YEAR, GIVEN THAT THE FED IS DESPERATE TO PROVIDE RELIEF, I THINK THE COMMITTEE MAY STILL BE WILLING TO GIVE US ONE OR TWO RATE CUTS, BUT WITHOUT MORE OF A MEANINGFUL DECLINE OR IMPROVEMENT IN INFLATION, AFTER THAT MINIMAL CONCESSION, I THINK THE FED'S HANDS ARE TIED, AND WE'D LIKELY SEE THE FED MOVE BACK TO THE SIDELINES FOR A SECOND ROUND EXTENDED PAUSE. AND IN FACT, EVEN IF INFLATION DOES REVERT BACK TO A DISINFLATIONARY TREND, I THINK RATE CUTS FROM THERE WOULD BE VERY SLOW, VERY TEMPERED, VERY CONTROLLED. LEAVING US WELL BEYOND NEUTRAL, NOT JUST BEYOND 2024 BUT WELL BEYOND 2025 AS WELL. BUT THE BIGGEST RISK IS IF INFLATION DOESN'T BEHAVE AS THE FED ANTICIPATES. THE BIGGEST RISK IS IF INFLATION BEGINS TO MORE MEANINGFULLY REVERSE COURSE, NOT ONLY IN TERMS OF THE MONTH TO MONTH INCREASES BUT ON A PERSISTENT BASIS. AT THAT POINT, I THINK THE FED'S HANDS MAY BE TIED TO, AS I MENTIONED, RE-ENGAGE AND PUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FURTHER RATE HIKE BACK ON THE TABLE. >> LINDSEY, GETTING KIND OF A ROUND-UP OF THOUGHTS ON THIS, HAS THE FED SUCCESSFULLY INITIATED A SOFT LANDING YET, OR IS THAT STILL UP FOR DEBATE OR UP FOR SEEING IN THE DATA COMING FORWARD? >> I DON'T KNOW IF WE'VE NECESSARILY SEEN A SOFT LANDING AS WE'RE STILL WORKING THROUGH THE CYCLE AND PRICE STABILITY HAS YET TO BE ACHIEVED. BUT WE'RE CERTAINLY AT A SOFT PAUSE OR SOFT PHASE OF THE CYCLE AT THIS POINT. AND THE FED CERTAINLY WANTS TO PERPETUATE THESE SOLID CONDITIONS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OUT IN THE ECONOMY, AGAIN, AND THAT'S THE MOTIVATION FOR WHY THEY WANT TO INITIATE THESE RATE CUTS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. AS SOON AS THE INFLATION DATA ALLOWS. BUT RIGHT NOW, WITH INFLATION REVERSING COURSE SINCE THE START OF THE YEAR, THE FED IS ON AN UNFAMILIAR PATHWAY, AN UNEXPECTED PATHWAY, FOR WHEN THAT POTENTIAL CHANGE IN POLICY MAY COME TO FRUITION. >> LINDSEY, WHAT DOES THAT THEN TELL US ABOUT THE EXPECTATIONS HERE, WHETHER OR NOT -- OR YOUR CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL ACHIEVE A SOFT LANDING, AND IF NOT, WHAT IS THE MORE REALISTIC OUTLOOK, DO YOU THINK, AT THIS POINT? >> REMEMBER, TO ACHIEVE A SOFT LANDING, THE FED HAS TO RAISE RATES TO A SUFFICIENTLY RESTRICTIVE LEVEL IN ORDER TO EVENTUALLY REINSTATE PRICE STABILITY. BUT THE GOAL WAS NEVER TO GO FROM 8% TO 6% TO 3% BUT TO CONTINUE ALONG THAT DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY BACK TO 2% ON A SUSTAINED BASIS. IT'S NOT ABOUT TOUCHING 2% BUT GETTING BACK TO 2% AND STAYING THERE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. RIGHT NOW, I DON'T SEE ANY EVIDENCE IN THE INFLATION DATA THAT WE ARE IN A TRAJECTORY BACK TO THAT LEVEL, SO THE FED MAY BE FORCED TO RE-ENGAGE IN ORDER TO REACH A STUFUFFICIENTLY RESTRICE LEVEL TO REINSTATE PRICE STABILITY. THE POSSIBILITY OF A SOFT LANDING IS STILL OUT THERE, BUT I THINK THE FED STILL HAS A LOT OF WORK TO DO. >> LINDSEY PIEGZA, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US HERE THIS MORNING. >>> COMING UP, WE HAVE SEEN A NUMBER OF COMPANIES BEAT EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS THIS QUARTER, BUT DO THOSE BEATS REALLY MATTER? WHAT IS WALL STREET LOOKING FOR INSIDE THE REPORTS? WE WILL DISCUSS ON THE OTHER SIDE. >>> LET'S DO A QUICK CHECK OF THE MARKETS, 43 MINUTES INTO THE TRADING DAY, AND YOU'RE LOOKING AT GAINS FOR THE S&P AND THE DOW. ALL THREE MAJOR AVERAGES TRADING TO THE UPSIDE. S&P JUST ABOVE 5,100. YOU'VE ALSO GOT THE DOW IN THE GREEN TODAY, THE MOVE HIGHER COMING DESPITE THAT SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN EXPECTED CORE PCE NUMBER WE GOT THIS MORNING. WE'VE GOT THE NASDAQ TRADING TO THE UPSIDE HERE, UP JUST ABOUT 2%. A LOT OF THAT STRENGTH BEING DRIVEN BY THOSE LARGER CAP TECH NAMES IN TODAY'S TRADING ACTION. YOU CAN SEE THAT CLEARLY ON DISPLAY FROM THE SECTOR ACTION THAT WE'RE SEEING HERE THIS MORNING. YOU GOT COMMUNICATION SERVICES, ALSO TECHNOLOGY, THE OUTPERFORMERS OF TODAY, UTILITIES AND ENERGY LAGGING. WE GOT THE DISAPPOINTING RESULTS FROM EXXON AND CHEVRON. THAT'S WEIGHING DOWN THE ENERGY SECTOR HERE. LET'S TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LEADERSHIP WE'RE SEEING PLAY OUT IN THE MARKET. YOU DON'T HAVE TO LOOK ANY FURTHER THAN THESE TWO NAMES ON YOUR SCREEN. GOOGLE UP AROUND 9.5% TODAY IN EARLY TRADING. YOU'VE ALSO GOT MICROSOFT ADDING TO THOSE GAINS, SO BOTH OF THOSE RESULTS, WE'VE BEEN TALKING TO STRATEGISTS AND ANALYSTS HERE THIS MORNING, AND THE TAKEAWAY, AT LEAST FOR ME SO FAR, UP UNTIL RIGHT NOW, HAS BEEN THE FACT THAT THESE TWO RESULTS HERE FROM GOOGLE AND MICROSOFT REALLY PUT THAT A.I. NARRATIVE BACK IN PLAY, ENOUGH TO EXCITE THE MARKET, AND WE'RE SEEING THAT REFLECTED IN THE BROADER MARKET GAINS SO FAR THIS MORNING. >>> IT HAS BEEN A ROLLER COASTER WEEK FOR MARKETS AS BIG TECH EARNINGS PASSED A CRUCIAL TEST. WE'VE SEEN STOCKS REACTING MORE THAN USUAL TO EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS THIS TIME AROUND. MARKETS ARE POISED TO END THE WEEK HIGHER THANKS TO A.I.-FUELED RALLIES FROM MICROSOFT AND ALPHABET. WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? WE WANT TO BRING IN NICOLE, HSBC'S HEAD OF EQUITY STRATEGY FOR THE AMERICAS. NICOLE, IT'S GREAT TO SEE YOU HERE. TALK TO ME JUST ABOUT YOUR REACTION TO THE EARNINGS PRINTS WE'VE GOTTEN TO THIS POINT AND WHETHER OR NOT IT'S ENOUGH FOR THE MARKET TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE UPSIDE. >> GREAT. THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME ON. EARNINGS HAVE COME IN MUCH STRONGER THAN EXPECTED, SO LOOKING AT THE PERCENTAGE OF EARNINGS BEATS, ABOUT 75% OF COMPANIES THAT REPORTED SO FAR HAVE BEAT EARNINGS, BUT THE PRICE REACTION HASN'T BEEN SO GREAT. SO, IF A COMPANY MISSES, YES, YOU'RE SEEING THOSE COMPANIES PUNISHED, BUT COMPANIES THAT ARE BEATING, YOU'RE NOT SEEING NECESSARILY THAT INCREASE IN THE SHARE PRICE THAT YOU WOULD TYPICALLY SEE. AND WE THINK THIS IS BECAUSE INVESTORS ARE SCRUTINIZING EVEN MORE EARNINGS AND FORWARD GUIDANCE, SO IF YOU LOOK INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR, YOU SEE EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS ARE PRETTY HIGH, SO WHEN WE SEE COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS, IT'S NOT SO MUCH WHAT THEY'RE REPORTING IN THE QUARTER BUT WHAT THEY'RE SAYING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR, AND I THINK THE MARKET REALLY IS EXPECTING THAT THAT GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY BETTER THAN WHAT THEY'VE ALREADY PRICED IN RIGHT NOW. SO, THAT'S THE REASON WHY THE REACTION HASN'T BEEN AS STRONG FOR MANY OF THESE NAMES AS WE'VE SEEN IN THE PAST. >> SO, THEN, NICOLE, WHAT DOES THAT SIGNAL FOR THE CURRENT QUARTER WE'RE IN AND THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR IF WE HAVE THESE LOW EXPECTATIONS LIKE YOU ARE SETTING OR LIKE YOU ARE SAYING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME BEATS. IS THAT GOING TO BE ENOUGH, THEN, GOING FORWARD? >> I THINK SO. WE'RE STILL VERY CONSTRUCTIVE U.S. EQUITIES. WE HAVE A PRICE TARGET OF 4,500 FOR THE S&P FOR THE END OF THE YEAR. I THINK, FIRST QUARTER, NEAR TERM EXPECTATIONS ARE VERY LOW, SO THAT DOES SET A VERY LOW BAR FOR AN EARNINGS BEAT. AND WE HAVE TO REMEMBER WHAT WE'RE SEEING ON THE GDP GROWTH SIDE, AND I THINK WE KEEP FORGETTING THAT SIX MONTHS AGO, THE MARKET WAS EXPECTING THAT THE U.S. WOULD GROW LESS THAN 1% IN 2024. NOW, WE'RE AT 2.4%, SO THAT IS VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR EARNINGS GROWTH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR, SO, YES, EXPECTATIONS ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE, BUT WE THINK, WITH THIS GDP GROWTH THAT WE EXPECT TO STAY RESILIENT, WE THINK THAT COMPANIES CAN DELIVER ON THAT EARNINGS GROWTH EXPECTATION OVER THE NEXT FEW QUARTERS. >> NICOLE, ONE THING YOU HAVEN'T MENTIONED YET IS THE FED AND WHETHER OR NOT THE FED IS GOING TO CUT, HOW THAT'S FACTORING INTO YOUR PROJECTIONS. DOES IT MATTER AT THIS POINT WHETHER OR NOT WE GET 25, 50 BASIS POINT CUT BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR? >> I DON'T THINK IT MATTERS WHEN WE GET THE CUTS. I THINK IT MATTERS THAT THAT NARRATIVE STILL NEEDS TO BE IN PLACE. SO, YOU KNOW, THE INFLATION DATA THAT WE SAW TODAY WAS -- IS IN LINE WITH WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. BUT WHAT IT'S SHOWING IS THAT INFLATION IS STAYING VERY STICKY. WHAT WE DON'T WANT TO SEE IS A RE-ACCELERATION IN INFLATION. WE THINK IF WE GET THAT, THEN WE START SEEING THIS NARRATIVE SHIFT FROM NOT WHEN THE FED WILL CUT BUT IF THE FED WILL HIKE. SO, AS LONG AS WE'RE IN THIS CONTINUED NARRATIVE THAT THE FED WILL EVENTUALLY CUT, IT DOESN'T MATTER IF IT'S JUNE, JULY, SEPTEMBER, DECEMBER, AS LONG AS THAT NARRATIVE IS IN PLACE, WE THINK THAT IS STILL VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR EQUITY MARKETS. >> NICOLE, YOU SAID IF THE FED WILL HIKE. IT DOESN'T SOUND LIKE YOU THINK IT'S TOO LIKELY AT THIS POINT, BUT WHAT IS YOUR EXPECTATION WHEN IT COMES TO THAT, AND OBVIOUSLY, THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS, THEN, FOR THE BROADER MARKET? >> WELL, I MEAN, WE DO HAVE A BEAR CASE SCENARIO OF THE S&P REACHING 4,800 AT THE END OF THE YEAR. AND THAT IS A NO-FED-CUT SCENARIO, AND THIS NARRATIVE SHIFT FROM, YOU KNOW, THE FED'S NOT GOING TO CUT, BUT THE FED WILL HIKE, AND IF WE SEE THAT, OBVIOUSLY, THAT IS A HEADWIND FOR VALUATIONS. IT'S A HEADWIND FOR EARNINGS AS YOU SEE CORPORATES WILL ACTUALLY PROBABLY HAVE COST PRESSURES IF THAT INFLATION MOVES A LITTLE BIT HIGHER, SO THAT IS REALLY KIND OF THE DOWNSIDE SCENARIO THAT WE HAVE FOR THE S&P, THE NO FED CUT AND ACTUALLY THE MARKET STARTING TO PRICE IN A FED HIKE. WE STILL FEEL LIKE WE'RE PRETTY FAR AWAY FROM THAT RIGHT NOW, LOOKING AT THE DATA THAT WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY. >> NICOLE, TALK TO US ABOUT YOUR STRATEGY, WHERE YOU'RE SEEING OPPORTUNITY, HOW YOU ARE POSITIONED, THEN, HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR. >> RIGHT. SO, YOU KNOW, WE'RE STILL VERY POSITIVE BIG TECH. WE THINK IT DOESN'T REALLY MATTER IF THE -- IF RATES STAY HIGH FOR LONGER FOR TECH. THESE COMPANIES, A LOT OF THEM HAVE VERY STRONG BALANCE SHEETS. THEY'RE NET CASH, SO IF WE DO SEE RATES STAYING HIGHER FOR LONGER, WE DON'T SEE THAT HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE BALANCE SHEET, AND ALSO, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE DELIVERING ON EARNINGS. THIS IS A SECULAR GROWTH STORY, SO WE THINK THAT SECTOR CONTINUES TO STAY STRONG OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR. ANOTHER SECTOR WE LIKE IS CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY, AND THIS REALLY WE'RE TAKING THIS BARBELL APPROACH WHERE WE LIKE COMPANIES THAT ARE FOCUSED ON THE HIGH-END CONSUMER. WE THINK THE HIGH-END CONSUMER WILL CONTINUE TO DO WELL, EVEN IF RATES CITY HIGHER FOR LONGER. THEY HAVE THESE FIXED RATE MORGUES. THEY HAVE THE WEALTH EFFECTS FROM HIGHER HOME PRICES AND HIGHER EQUITY PRICES, SO WE THINK STOCKS FOCUSED ON THAT SORT OF SECTOR WILL DO WELL. AND AS WELL IN THE LOW INCOME SECTOR, YOU COULD SEE THIS TRADE DOWN OF THE MIDDLE INCOME CONSUMER TRADING DOWN, WHICH COULD HELP SOME OF THOSE COMPANIES THAT ARE REALLY FOCUSED ON THE LOWER END CONSUMER AS WELL. >> ALL RIGHT, NICOLE INUI, GREAT TO GET YOUR INSIGHT. THANKS SO MUCH FOR HOPPING ON WITH US THIS MORNING. HSBC'S HEAD OF EQUITY STRATEGY FOR THE AMERICAS. THANK YOU SO MUCH. >> THANK YOU. >>> WELL, COMING UP, WE ARE TAKING A LOOK AT THE U.S. DOLLAR AFTER INFLATION COMING IN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN EXPECTED. WE'LL GET A GUEST'S TAKE ON WHERE WE ARE HEADED. OBVIOUSLY, THAT MOVE TO THE UPSIDE, WHETHER OR NOT THAT'S GOING TO CONTINUE. WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK. >>> EVER WONDER WHY A STOCK SUDDENLY DROPS DOUBLE DIGITS OR BITCOIN UNEXPECTEDLY HITS RECORD HIGHS? WE'RE UNPACKING THE CATALYSTS DRIVING DAILY MARKET ACTION AND EXPLAINING THE CHAIN REACTION. WHY ARE OIL PRICES TRENDING LOWER, DESPITE ONGOING GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS? >> OR WHY A COMPANY'S STOCK IS UP EVEN THOUGH IT MISSED ON EARNINGS. >> INSIGHT FROM TOP STRATEGISTS, ECONOMISTS, AND BUSINESS LEADERS WILL HELP YOU MAKE THE SMARTEST CHOICES FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO. >> THIS IS "CATALYSTS." >> TUNE IN DAILY, 10:00 A.M. EASTERN, ON YAHOO! FINANCE. >>> U.S. DOLLAR TRADING TO THE UPSIDE HERE THIS MORNING FOLLOWING ANOTHER HOTTER THAN EXPECTED CORE PCE PRINT OUT EARLIER TODAY, SHOWING THAT INFLATION, ONCE AGAIN, REMAINING A BIT STICKY. HERE TO BREAK IT ALL DOWN, WHAT EXACTLY THIS MEANS FOR THE FX MARKET, WE WANT TO BRING IN MARK McCORMICK, TD BANK. LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT UPSIDE HERE. WE HAVE GOT ANOTHER SURPRISE IN INFLATION. IS THIS GOING TO KICKSTART ANOTHER ROUND OF STRENGTH, DO YOU THINK, FOR THE DOLLAR? >> YEAH, I THINK THIS IS, ACTUALLY, VERY MEANINGFUL. THE ONE THING THAT'S KIND OF CHALLENGING ABOUT FX MARKETS IS IT TENDS TO CHANGE ITS FOCUS VERY QUICKLY. CORRELATIONS CHANGE, AND IT KIND OF CHANGES WHAT IT WANTS TO LOOK AT. SO, FOR A WHILE, THE MARKET'S BEEN REALLY FOCUSED ON THE RELATIVE GROWTH DEVELOPMENTS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND THE REST OF THE WORLD WHERE THE REST OF THE WORLD HAS BEEN NARROWING THAT GAP. LAST THREE MONTHS, IT COMPLETELY FLIPPED, AND UPSIDE SURPRISES IN INFLATION, WHICH HAVE BEEN GENERALLY IGNORED BY THE MARKET FOR THE MOST PART OF THE YEAR, HAS BECOME THE MOST IMPORTANT DOMINATING THEME IN FX. AND WHAT IT'S DOING, IT'S CHANGING THE FACTORS AND THE WAY THAT THE MARKET'S WORKING BECAUSE GLOBAL GROWTH HAS BEEN UPGRADED, FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ARE EASING, CENTRAL BANKS ARE CUTTING, AND THAT'S SEEING THE DOLLAR NOT TRACK INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS. NOW WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS THAT INFLATION IS TAKING OVER, AND IT'S VERY STRONG IN THE U.S. RELATIVE TO OTHER COUNTRIES, PARTICULARLY IN THE G-10. NOT SO MUCH IN EMERGING MARKETS, BUT THAT IS NOW WHAT'S DICTATING THE MARKET OUTCOME, WHICH IS EVERYONE'S FOCUSED ON, WILL THE FED CUT? CAN THE FED CUT? BUT WE KNOW THAT THE ECB IS GOING TO CUT. THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GOING TO CUT. THE BANK OF CANADA IS GOING TO CUT. SO, NOW, WE SEE CLEAR DIVERGENCE. INFLATION IS THE NUMBER ONE THING THAT MATTERS FOR THE DOLLAR RIGHT NOW. >> AND MARK, TALK TO US A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THAT FX TRADEOFF, THEN, GIVEN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT RIGHT NOW, GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE COULD SEE THE FED STAYING ON THE SIDELINES, WE COULD SEE ACTIVITY FROM OTHER CENTRAL BANKS. YOU JUST MENTIONED THE ECB CUTTING IN JUNE, AND ULTIMATELY WHAT THAT TELLS US ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE UPSIDE POTENTIALLY HERE FOR THE DOLLAR. >> YEAH, IT'S QUITE IMPORTANT BECAUSE, TOO, THERE'S THE BIG ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM, THERE'S AN ELECTION THIS YEAR. THERE'S DYNAMICS IN THE FX MARKET THAT WORK THROUGH GEOPOLITICS. YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE SEE IS THAT FX VOLATILITY IS QUITE LOW RELATIVE TO GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY. THE INDICATORS THAT WE TRACK. SO, WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THINKING IS THE DOLLAR, AS WE KIND OF COME FOR THE SUMMER, SHOULD BE QUITE STRONGER ANYWAY, BECAUSE WE DO THINK THE MARKET AND THE ELECTION AND ALL THESE THINGS SHOULD BE REALIZED THROUGH MUCH HIGHER VOLATILITY. I THINK WHAT'S HAPPENING IS NOW THE FED'S WINDOW TO ACTUALLY CUT RATES, WHETHER IT BE IN SEPTEMBER OR JULY, IS NARROWING QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY, WHICH ALSO, I THINK, THERE'S A LOT OF DEBATE. WE HAVE THESE CONVERSATIONS WITH CLIENTS. CAN THE FED ACTUALLY CUT IN SEPTEMBER? JUST GIVEN THE, LIKE, THE PROXIMITY TO THE ELECTION IN GENERAL. IF THAT BECOMES AN ISSUE BECAUSE INFLATION'S STARTING TO REACCELERATE, OR IT'S STICKY OR IT'S HOT, THEN THE MARKET'S PRICING NO CUTS. SO, I THINK THE MODALITIES HERE OR THE EXPECTATIONS OF WHERE THE DOLLAR CAN GO IS THE DOLLAR CAN GET MUCH STRONGER FROM THESE LEVELS, GIVEN WHAT WE'VE SEEN TRANSPIRE OVER THE LAST, YOU KNOW, COUPLE OF WEEKS, AND THE COUPLE OF MONTHS IN TERMS OF INFLATION AND HOW THE MARKET'S NOW PRICING REAL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN G-10 CENTRAL BANKS AND THE FED. >> MARK, TALK TO US A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THE RISK OF THE U.S. DOLLAR GETTING TOO STRONG, AND THEN WHAT COULD HAPPEN NEXT AS A RESULT OF THAT? >> YEAH, THAT'S ANOTHER INTERESTING -- WE ALWAYS, IN FINANCE AND MARKETS IN GENERAL, YOU HAVE TO KIND OF THINK OF FIRST ORDER EFFECT, SECOND ORDER EFFECT. IT'S VERY CLEAR THERE WAS A STATEMENT LAST WEEK FROM CHAMPS-ELKOREA, JAPAN, AND U.S. OFFICIALS THAT THEY ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE KOREAN YUAN, THE JAPANESE YEN. THE BOJ DID NOTHING OVERNIGHT, WHICH IS KIND OF CONTINUED TO SEE PRESSURE ON THE YEN. AN INTERESTING PART HERE IS THE BOJ DOES NOT WORK DIRECTLY OR THEY WORK DIRECTLY, BUT THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE CONTROLS FX MOVEMENT, SO WHAT YOU CAN SEE HERE IS INTERVENTION ON THE YEN. WE'VE ALSO SEEN HOW CENTRAL BANKS HAVE TO CHANGE THEIR MINDSET. DO THEY WANT TO CONTROL THE FX RATE AND ALLOW THE CURRENCY TO NOT WEAKEN, WHICH IS WHAT WE SAW IN INDONESIA? OR DO WE WANT TO LET THE CURRENCY KIND OF BE DICTATED A LITTLE BIT BY THE MARKET AND SEE FURTHER CURRENCY WEAKNESS? THE INTERESTING THING THAT'S HAPPENING IS IF WE DO GET THIS WEDGE WHERE THE DOLLAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN FROM NOW UNTIL THE ELECTION, AND EVEN GETS STRONGER THROUGH THE ELECTION, DEPENDING ON WHO WINS, THE ENVIRONMENT CAN LEAD TO WHAT, YOU KNOW, IF YOU GO REALLY FAR WITH IT, THERE'S DISCUSSIONS ABOUT A NEW PLAZA ACCORD. THAT'S KIND OF BEING REPORTED. THAT'S BEING DISCUSSED. YOU CAN SEE IF, LIKE, DONALD TRUMP WINS AND LIGHTHIZER IS HIS TREASURY SECRETARY, THEY HAVE HAD CONVERSATIONS, AND THERE'S PUBLIC DISCUSSIONS AROUND WHETHER OR NOT HE'D WANT TO DEVALUE THE DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES THAT ARE QUITE CHEAP. WE DO SEE SOME INTUITIVE LOGIC IN THAT, THAT IF THE FED CAN'T CUT, GIVEN INFLATION AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKS CUT, AND YOU GET AN EXCESSIVE MOVE IN THE DOLLAR IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS, AND THEN YOU HAVE CONTINUATION IN THE DOLLAR, IF TRUMP WERE TO WIN, YOU CAN SEE HOW YOU CAN KIND OF GET TO AN ENVIRONMENT IN, YOU KNOW, MID-2025 WHERE THE DOLLAR'S JUST AGGRESSIVELY TOO STRONG, AND THERE IS KIND OF A GLOBAL PUSH TO WEAKEN IT. >> YEAH, MARK, SO THE TIMING OF IT, DOESN'T SOUND LIKE THAT WOULD POTENTIALLY, IF ALL THAT SCENARIO'S PLAYED OUT, THAT WOULDN'T BE AN EARLY 2025 STORY. IT WOULD ALMOST BE A LATTER HALF 2025, EARLY 2026 STORY, IS THAT RIGHT? >> YEAH, THAT'S THE FIRST AND SECOND ORDER EFFECT. IF THERE'S NO FED CUTS, U.S. ECONOMY'S GENERALLY REACCELERATING, AND IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS RISK-OFF IN HIGHER INFLATION, THAT DOES FAVOR DONALD TRUMP, AND IT DOESN'T FAVOR THE INCUMBENT. SO, IN THAT ENVIRONMENT, THE MARKETS HAVE TO RECALIBRATE TO NEW MACROECONOMIC POTENTIAL POLICIES OR AT LEAST PRICE IN THE RISKS, WHICH IS TAX CUTS AND TARIFFS, WHICH ARE THINGS THAT HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED QUITE FREQUENTLY. SO, THOSE ARE INFLATIONARY THEMSELVES. SO, THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK, YOU KNOW, IF YOU THINK ABOUT FURTHER CORPORATE TAX CUTS OR EXTENDING THOSE TAX CUTS NEXT YEAR, ALONG WITH TARIFFS ON OTHER COUNTRIES, THAT ALSO WOULD REACCELERATE THE STRENGTH OF THE DOLLAR THAT WOULD COME THROUGH IN THE FALL. SO, THOSE ARE THINGS -- THAT WOULD BE THE FIRST ORDER EFFECT, AND YOU KNOW, IN THAT ENVIRONMENT, THE DOLLAR GETS AGGRESSIVELY STRONGER IN 2025, WHICH, THEN, SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR POLICYMAKERS AROUND THE WORLD TO SAY, YOU KNOW, THE ONE THING THAT WE DO KNOW IS IF THE DOLLAR IS VERY STRONG, IT'S BAD FOR GLOBAL EQUITIES. IT'S BAD FOR GLOBAL GROWTH. THAT'S AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE, IF THE DOLLAR GETS EXCESSIVE, BASED ON THE -- THOSE TYPE OF SCENARIOS, THAT'S WHERE, YEAH, THINGS -- THE SECOND ORDER EFFECT IS SOME KIND OF POLICY MOVE. >> MARK McCORMICK, GREAT TO TALK TO YOU HERE THIS MORNING, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME TO JOIN US. TD BANK GLOBAL HEAD OF FX EM STRATEGY. THANK YOU SO MUCH. >>> COMING UP, SHARES OF UNDER ARMOUR ARE UNDER PRESSURE, OFF OVER 20% IN THE PAST YEAR. THE RETAILER JUST GOING THROUGH A CORPORATE SHAKE-UP WITH OUSTING OF ITS FORMER CEO IN EXCHANGE FOR THE RETURN OF FOUNDER KEVIN BLANK. AFTER THE BREAK, YAHOO! FINANCE GOES BEHIND THE SCENES TO CAPTURE THE APPAREL GIANT'S CORPORATE TURNAROUND STORY, WHAT IT WILL TAKE FOR THE STRUGGLING BRAND TO BOUNCE BACK. THAT'S NEXT. >>> UNDER ARMOUR HAS LONG BEEN KNOWN AND LONG BEEN HERALDED AS THE UNDERDOG IN THE CUT-THROAT SPORTSWEAR APPAREL WORLD. MORE RECENTLY, IT HAS BEEN DOGGED WITH CONTROVERSY, A FEW PUBLIC MISSTEPS BY FOUNDER KEVIN PLANK AND A BIT OF A REVOLVING DOOR AT THE C-SUITE THAT HAS LEFT INVESTORS HOLDING SHARES OF A COMPANY VALUED AT 85% BELOW ITS RECORD HIGHS. IN EARLY MARCH, THE MOST RECENT CEO, STEPHANIE, WAS LET GO AFTER JUST 13 MONTHS ON THE JOB. SHE WAS THE THIRD CEO IN FOUR YEARS FOR THE COMPANY. A LONG-TIME MARRIOTT EXECUTIVE, SHE WAS BROUGHT IN TO OVERHAUL THE COMPANY STRUGGLING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS FROM DIGITAL MARKETING TO CORPORATE CULTURE TO SHAREHOLDER VALUE. >> BREAKING NEWS, KEVIN PLANK RETURNING TO UNDER ARMOUR AS ITS CEO, REPLACING STEPHANIE LIRNTS, WHO JUST ROUNDED A YEAR IN HER TENURE AS HEAD OF THE COMPANY. >> CORPORATE SHAKE-UPS AT THE C-SUITE LEVEL ARE NOT UNCOMMON, ALTHOUGH ACCORDING TO SOURCES YAHOO! FINANCE HAS SPOKEN WITH, THIS ONE CAME AS A SURPRISE TO MANY, INCLUDING LIRNTS HERSELF. NEWS OF PLANK'S RETURN DID NOT SIT WELL WITH WALL STREET, THE STOCK FALLING MORE THAN 10% THE MORNING AFTER THE ANNOUNCEMENT. PLANK, WHO FOUNDED THE COMPANY IN 1996, HAD A SUCCESSFUL RUN IN THE EARLY 2000s, BUILDING THE BRAND AND INKING LUCRATIVE SPONSORSHIPS, BUT BY 2019, PLANK STEPPED DOWN AS CEO AMID FINANCIAL MISSTEPS AND CONTROVERSIES. WHILE DOWN, UNDER ARMOUR IS NOT OUT. IT IS STILL A RECOGNIZED BRAND GLOBALLY WITH NUMEROUS PARTNERSHIPS, ESPECIALLY AMONG COLLEGES. BUT WITH LIRNTS'S DEPARTURE AND PLANK'S RETURN, ANALYSTS AND INVESTORS ARE WAITING TO HEAR HOW UNDER ARMOUR PLANS TO BECOME A STRONGER COMPETITOR AGAINST THE LIKES OF NIKE, ADIDAS, NEW BALANCE, AND PUMA, AMONG MANY OTHERS. WHEN YAHOO! FINANCE SAT DOWN WITH LIRNTS AT UNDER ARMOUR'S BALTIMORE HEADQUARTERS IN LATE NOVEMBER OF 2023, SHE HAD ALREADY BEGUN IMPLEMENTING A THREE-YEAR TURNAROUND PLAN. THE PLAN WAS AIMED AT INCREASING U.S. SALES, ELEVATING DESIGN AND PRODUCT, WITH A FOCUS ON FOOTWEAR AND SPORTS STYLE AND DRIVING GLOBAL BRAND HEAT. >> YOU'LL SEE A NEW LOOK AND FEEL TO OUR MARKETING. YOU'LL SEE A NEW LOOK AND FEEL TO WHERE YOU CAN BUY UNDER ARMOUR. BUT YOU KNOW, NOTHING HAPPENS OVERNIGHT. IT'S ABOUT THREE BIG THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS, TO DRIVE OUR REVENUE GROWTH, OUR BOTTOM LINE PROFITABILITY, AND IT'S REALLY ABOUT BUILDING BRAND HEAT FOR THE COMPANY. >> SHE NEVER GOT A CHANCE TO FIND THAT HEAT, AND NOW ANALYSTS ARE LOOKING AT THE STAKES A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. >> IT'S REALLY CRITICAL THAT UNDER ARMOUR PUT OUT HIGH-QUALITY FOOTWEAR THAT HAS INNOVATIVE FEATURES, IS STYLISH, AND REALLY ADDRESSES THE NEEDS FROM THE MARKET AND ADDRESSES WHAT CONSUMERS WANT AND WHAT COLLECTORS WANT, AND THAT'S FOR ALL DEMOGRAPHICS AND ALL AGE GROUPS. >> UNDER ARMOUR HAS LOST RELEVANCE AMONG TEENS, ACCORDING TO A RECENT SURVEY BY PIPER SANDLER, WHICH SAID, "WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT UNDER ARMOUR HAS LOST RELEVANCY WITH ITS TARGET DEMOGRAPHIC." TO DO THAT TURNAROUND, LINNARTZ FOCUSED ON GROWING UNDER ARMOUR'S FOOTWEAR BUSINESS, ESPECIALLY WITH SPORTS STYLE AND WOMEN. IT WAS A BIG ASK FOR A FIRST-TIME CEO IN A NEW INDUSTRY IN SUCH A SHORT SPAN OF TIME. >> THE BRAND, UNDER ARMOUR, HAS HAD STALLED GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES. THAT'S JUST FACTUAL. I KNEW ONE OF THE CHALLENGES THAT I WOULD HAVE TO ADDRESS VERY EARLY ON IN MY TENURE AS CEO HERE WAS REALLY FIGURING OUT, HOW DO WE GET THAT BRAND HEAT BACK IN THE UNITED STATES? HOW DO WE GROW SALES? >> SHE CERTAINLY WASN'T GIVEN ENOUGH TIME. SHE HAD JUST MADE CHANGES, VERY RECENTLY, HAD BROUGHT IN NEW EXECUTIVES AT UNDER ARMOUR. THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT TURNOVER AT ALL MAJOR POSITIONS AT THE COMPANY, SO SHE WAS NOT REALLY GIVEN A CHANCE TO PERFORM AND TO SHOW THAT HER REFORMS ARE GOING TO WORK IN THE LONG-TERM. SHE HADN'T MADE MUCH OF AN IMPRESSION AT ALL. >> WAS IT A RISK? >> IT WAS A RISK, BUT I'VE ALWAYS BEEN A BELIEVER THERE'S MORE UPSIDE TO TAKING RISK. I'VE ALWAYS GIVEN YOUNG PEOPLE THE ADVICE TO BELIEVE IN YOURSELF, BET ON YOURSELF, TAKE SMART, CALCULATED RISK, AND I HAD DONE THAT THROUGHOUT MY CAREER AT MARRIOTT THEN, I DECIDED TO DO IT IN AN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT WAY AND SWITCH JOBS, SWITCH INDUSTRIES, AND LEAD THE NEXT CHAPTER FOR UNDER ARMOUR. >> A CHAPTER SHE WILL NO LONGER GET TO SEE AFTER PLANK POSTED A STATEMENT TO THE COMPANY'S LINKEDIN PAGE IN MARCH, ANNOUNCING HIS RETURN. "I WANT TO THANK STEPHANIE FOR HER CONTRIBUTIONS TO UNDER ARMOUR. SHE HELPED ADVANCE THE COMPANY FORWARD IN MANY IMPORTANT WAYS, INCLUDING LEADERSHIP, TALENT, DESIGN, SUPPLY CHAIN, CONSUMER LOYALTY AND REGIONAL MANAGEMENT." HE ALSO ALLUDED TO HIS TIME AWAY FROM THE CEO ROLE, SAYING, "I HAVE LEARNED MANY LESSONS PROFESSIONALLY AND PERSONALLY. THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN INVALUABLE, SHAPING MY UNDERSTANDING OF OUR BUSINESS AND REINFORCING OUR MISSION, VILSION AND VALUES." PLANK WAS NOT IMMUNE TO CONTROVERSY. NEGATIVE SENTIMENT TO RELATED TO UNDER ARMOUR PRODUCTS WERE ALREADY IMPACTING THE COMPANY AND ITS SHAREHOLDERS. PLANK PRAISED PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP FOR BEING PRO-BUSINESS AND A REAL ASSET FOR THE COUNTRY. HIS COMMENTS QUICKLY CAME UNDER FIRE FROM CUSTOMERS AND HIS OWN STAR ATHLETE ENDORSERS, INCLUDING STEPH CURRY AND DWAYNE "THE ROCK" JOHNSON. PLANK LATER PLAYED CLEAN-UP, TAKING OUT A FULL-PAGE AD IN THE "BALTIMORE SUN." IN A CRITICAL 2018 "WALL STREET JOURNAL" ARTICLE, PLANK FACED A #METOO BACKLASH FOR THE COMPANY'S ALLEGED ANTICS THAT INCLUDED ALLOWING EMPLOYEES TO EXPENSE VISITS TO STRIP CLUBS, WHICH PLANK PUT AN END TO AFTER THE ARTICLE CAME OUT. UNDER ARMOUR WAS FIND BY THE S.E.C. FOR MISLEADING INVESTORS. >> CEO KEVIN PLANK ANNOUNCING HE IS STEPPING DOWN FROM THE COMPANY HE STARTED MORE THAN 20 YEARS AGO. >> EVEN AFTER HE STEPPED DOWN AS CEO, KEVIN PLANK WAS STILL VERY INVOLVED WITH UNDER ARMOUR. HE WAS STILL ON THE BOARD AND STILL THE CONTROLLING SHAREHOLDER AND WAS STILL ACTIVE IN THE STRATEGY OF THE COMPANY. >> IS IT TOUGH TO CHANGE CULTURE? >> I THINK THAT IT IS -- I DO THINK IT'S TOUGH TO CHANGE CULTURE, THAT OLD EXPRESSION THAT CULTURE EATS STRATEGY FOR LUNCH, BUT I THINK YOU NEED TO HAVE A STRATEGY FOR CULTURE. I DO THINK YOU NEED TO HAVE A STRATEGY FOR CULTURE, AND I THINK THAT THE CEO PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN DRIVING THE CULTURE OF THE COMPANY. >> WITH NEWS OF PLANK'S RETURN AS CEO, THERE WAS A FEELING OF DISBELIEF INSIDE THE HALLS OF UNDER ARMOUR, ACCORDING TO PEOPLE CLOSE TO THE COMPANY WHO YAHOO! FINANCE HAS SPOKEN TO. >> I THINK A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN IS THAT THERE'S NOT MUCH STABILITY AND CLARITY AT THE COMPANY AT THE MOMENT. I MEAN, INCLUDING KEVIN PLANK, THIS COMPANY HAS ESSENTIALLY HAD FOUR DIFFERENT CEOs IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS. AND YOU CAN'T TRY TO REBUILD A COMPANY WITH SUCH INSTABILITY AT THE TOP, AND THE FACT THAT KEVIN PLANK IS COMING BACK, ALTHOUGH I THINK IT WAS MET WITH A LOT OF SKEPTICISM BY INVESTORS, I DON'T THINK IT WAS BECAUSE THEY DOUBT HIS PERSONAL INTEREST IN THE COMPANY. I THINK THAT THEY'RE WELL AWARE THAT HE WANTS THE COMPANY TO SUCCEED AS MUCH AS ANYBODY. >> ACCORDING TO A STUDY, THE MEDIAN CEO TENURE AMONG S&P 500 COMPANIES HAS DECLINED 20% FROM SIX YEARS IN 2013 TO 4.8 YEARS IN 2022. LINNARTZ LASTED ONLY 13 MONTHS. FOR HER TIME, SHE WILL RECEIVE $2.6 MILLION IN CASH OR TWICE HER CURRENT SALARY BASE. THE 2024 PERFORMANCE BONUS INVESTED STOCK WORTH ABOUT $7.3 MILLION AS WELL AS MEDICAL COVERAGE FOR TWO YEARS AFTER DATA SEPARATION, ACCORDING TO AN AGREEMENT THAT LINNARTZ ENTERED INTO THREE DAYS BEFORE UNDER ARMOUR ANNOUNCED THAT PLANK WAS RETURNING. >> WHAT I THINK UNDER ARMOUR AND KEVIN PLANK NEED TO DO IS THEY NEED TO PROVE TO INVESTORS THAT THERE IS A PLAN TO EXPAND THE MARKET AND EXPAND BOTH GEOGRAPHICALLY OUTSIDE OF NORTH AMERICA, WHICH STILL GENERATES TWO-THIRDS OF UNDER ARMOUR'S SALES, AS WELL AS TO REACH MORE DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS AND INCREASE ITS PENETRATION IN THE CORE DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS THAT IT CATERS TO. AND SO, I THINK THAT'S WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN BEFORE INVESTORS WANT TO BUY THIS STOCK. >> THAT WAS OUR PIECE ON THE FUTURE OF UNDER ARMOUR WITH KEVIN PLANK BACK LEADING THE CHARGE. WE ALSO SHOWED BITS OF MY CONVERSATION WITH FORMER UNDER ARMOUR CEO, STEPHANIE LINNARTZ, AND SEANA, THIS IS -- LINNARTZ, I KNOW HER GOING BACK TO WHEN SHE WAS AT MARRIOTT, REALLY CHANGING THE GAME THERE, ESPECIALLY AS PERTAINS TO THEIR REWARDS PROGRAM. SHE GOT A BAD DEAL HERE. ONLY 13 MONTHS ON THE JOB, AND IN A POSITION LIKE THIS, LIKE UNDER ARMOUR, WHERE THEY HAVE LET CUSTOMERS DOWN SO BADLY OVER THE PAST DECADE ON PRODUCT, CUSTOMER SERVICE, YOU NAME IT, SHE NEEDED AT LEAST TWO YEARS TO START TO TURN THE SHIP AROUND >> THAT CERTAINLY SOUNDS LIKE THAT HAD BEEN THE CRITICISM, REALLY, FROM MANY ON THE STREET. WHEN YOU ASSUME A NEW ROLE, ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE CEO, COMING IN AS AN EXECUTIVE TO A NEW COMPANY, YOU NEED AT LEAST SIX MONTHS, 12 MONTHS, 18 MONTHS, REALLY, TO GIVE YOURSELF SOME TIME TO FAMILIARIZE YOURSELF WITH EVERY SINGLE DIVISION, AND THEN YOU START TO MAKE THOSE DRASTIC CHANGES, AND LIKE YOU WERE SAYING, 13 MONTHS, CLEARLY NO MATTER, REALLY AN OPPORTUNITY FOR HER TO TURN ANYTHING AROUND AT UNDER ARMOUR. I'M CURIOUS WHAT YOU MAKE OF THE STRATEGISTS AND ANALYSTS YOU'VE SPOKEN WITH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS SINCE THIS ANNOUNCEMENT. WHAT DO THEY MAKE AS KEVIN COMING BACK AS CEO? ARE THEY AT ALL CONFIDENT THAT IT'S GOING TO BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME AROUND? >> THE FOLKS THAT I HAVE TALKED TO ARE CONCERNED. I THINK THEY WERE TAKEN ABACK BY STEPHANIE BEING SHOVED OUT THE WAY SHE HAS. KEEP IN MIND, STEPHANIE REBUILT THE EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP TEAM, REBUILT A LOT OF THE RANKS LOWER DOWN FROM THE EXECUTIVE LEVEL. THESE ARE PEOPLE THAT SHE SIGNED OFF ON AND HAD THE HIGH-QUALITY OR HIGH-QUALITY RESUME AND WERE JUST GOOD HUMAN BEINGS THAT SHE BROUGHT ON TO THE TEAM. I THINK A LOT OF FOLKS ARE ABOUT TO LEAVE UNDER ARMOUR AT SOME POINT THIS YEAR, BECAUSE THEY DO NOT WANT TO WORK FOR KEVIN PLANK GIVEN ALL HIS CONTROVERSIES AND HOW HE'S HISTORICALLY LED THE COMPANY. IS THERE ANOTHER EXECUTIVE EXODUS FROM THE COMPANY OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS? I THINK THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN. LET'S NOT MAKE ANY MISTAKE HERE WHY KEVIN PLANK IS BACK. HE'S HERE TO SAVE HIS LEGACY, AND THAT LEGACY -- HE'S THE CONTROLLING VOTING SHAREHOLDER IN THE COMPANY, AND AS PART OF SAVING THAT LEGACY, HE'S GOING TO HAVE TO DECIDE WHAT HE WANTS TO DO WITH THIS COMPANY. IS UNDER ARMOUR, AT THIS POINT IN ITS LIFE SPAN, SHOULD IT BE OWNED BY PRIVATE EQUITY, OUT OF PUBLIC MARKETS? IT'S A -- IT WOULD BE A WAY FOR HIM TO MAXIMIZE SHAREHOLDER VALUE BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE COMPANY BACK TO RELEVANCE. >> WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS HERE UNDER HIS TENURE, HIS SECOND TIME AROUND. SOZ, THANK YOU SO MUCH. >>> COMING UP, NEWELL BRANDS SEEING NET SALES FALL, BUT THE COMPANY REMAINING CONFIDENT IN ITS FULL-YEAR OUTLOOK. SHARES TRADING TO THE UPSIDE TODAY. WE WILL SPEAK TO THE CEO, CHRIS PETERSON, NEXT. >>> EVER WONDER WHY A STOCK SUDDENLY DROPS DOUBLE DIGITS OR BITCOIN UNEXPECTEDLY HITS RECORD HIGHS? WE'RE UNPACKING THE CATALYSTS DRIVING DAILY MARKET ACTION AND EXPLAINING THE CHAIN REACTION. WHY ARE OIL PRICES TRENDING LOWER, DESPITE ONGOING GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS? >> OR WHY A COMPANY'S STOCK IS UP EVEN THOUGH IT MISSED ON EARNINGS. >> INSIGHT FROM TOP STRATEGISTS, ECONOMISTS, AND BUSINESS LEADERS WILL HELP YOU MAKE THE SMARTEST CHOICES FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO. >> THIS IS "CATALYSTS." >> TUNE IN DAILY, 10:00 A.M. EASTERN, ON YAHOO! FINANCE. >>> NEWELL BRANDS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY AFTER REPORTING SIGNIFICANT QUARTER EXTANGS FROM A YEAR AGO, BUT THE COMPANY DID SEE NET SALES FALL OVER 8%, CITING THE IMPACT FROM UNFAVORABLE FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND BUSINESS EXITS. CHRIS PETERSON, NEWELL BRANDS CEO, JOINING US NOW, ALONGSIDE YAHOO! FINANCE'S EXECUTIVE EDITOR, BRIAN SOZZI. CHRIS, GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE ON YAHOO! FINANCE. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME TO SPEAK WITH US THIS MORNING. >> HAPPY TO DO IT. GREAT TO BE WITH YOU. >> SO, LET'S TALK ABOUT SOME OF THE IMPROVEMENT THAT YOU SAW LAST QUARTER. YOU BOOSTED YOUR MARGINS AND NARROWER THAN EXPECTED LOSS HERE. WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU ABOUT WHERE YOU ARE IN YOUR RESTRUCTURING EFFORTS AND EXACTLY HOW THOSE RESTRUCTURING EFFORTS ARE PAYING OFF FOR YOUR BUSINESS? >> WE PUT A NEW STRATEGY IN PLACE LAST JUNE THAT WAS REALLY FOCUSED ON IMPROVING THE RATE OF CORE SALES GROWTH, FOCUSED ON IMPROVING OUR COMMERCIAL CAPABILITIES OF CONSUMER UNDERSTANDING, BRAND BUILDING, INNOVATION, AND GO TO MARKET. AT THE SAME TIME, WE TOOK THAT STRATEGY, CHANGED OUR OPERATING MODEL, AND ARE VERY FOCUSED ON DRIVING MARGIN IMPROVEMENT AND CASH FLOW, AND THAT STRATEGY THAT WE'VE BEEN EXECUTING AGAINST FOR THREE QUARTERS, I THINK, IS STARTING TO SHOW STRONG RESULTS. IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR, WHICH WE REPORTED THIS MORNING, OUR NORMALIZED EBITDA WAS UP OVER 30% FROM THE FIRST QUARTER OF LAST YEAR, DRIVEN BY A 410-BASIS-POINT IMPROVEMENT IN GROSS MARGIN. OUR CORE SALES GROWTH WAS DOWN 4.7%, WHICH WE'RE NOT SATISFIED WITH, BUT WAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN RUN RATE VERSUS WHAT WE SAW LAST YEAR AND IN THE BACK HALF OF LAST YEAR. >> CHRIS, IT'S BRIAN HERE. GOOD TO WELCOME YOU TO YAHOO! FINANCE. HOW COMPETITIVE IS THIS CATEGORY? I GO DOWN THE AISLES. LET'S SAY I GO TO DICK'S SPORTING GOODS. I SEE THE LIKES OF YETI COMPETING WITH THINGS, MAYBE, THAT YOU SELL. I SEE STANLEY SELLING THESE MUGS TO EVERYBODY, SEEMINGLY EVERYWHERE. YOU SELL, YOU KNOW, SIMILAR-TYPE PRODUCTS. HOW HARD IS IT TO GET THAT GAME-CHANGING BREAKTHROUGH PRODUCT INTO THE HANDS OF THE CONSUMERS RIGHT NOW? >> IT'S A GREAT POINT, AND IT'S EXACTLY WHAT OUR NEW STRATEGY IS DESIGNED TO DO. WE THINK WE ARE THE SCALE PLAYER IN GENERAL MERCHANDISE. WE'RE LARGER THAN MOST OF OUR COMPETITORS THAT WE COMPETE AGAINST IN EACH OF THE CATEGORIES, BECAUSE THEY TEND TO BE MORE SINGLE-CATEGORY FOCUSED. AND IN THE PAST, WE'VE BEEN OPERATING AS A SERIES OF BUSINESS UNITS. ONE OF THE CHOICES THAT WE MADE AS PART OF THE NEW STRATEGY IS TO CREATE HORIZONTAL CAPABILITY IN THE COMPANY AROUND CONSUMER UNDERSTANDING, PUT IN PLACE A BRAND-BUILDING FRAMEWORK, AND AN INNOVATION PROCESS THAT IS CONSISTENT ACROSS THE COMPANY, AND WHEN WE DO THAT WELL, WE SEE WE CAN GROW MARKET SHARE AND OUTCOMPETE THE COMPETITION. ONE OF THE INITIATIVES THAT WE LAUNCHED IN THE FIRST QUARTER THIS YEAR THAT WE'RE VERY EXCITED ABOUT IS WE JUST LAUNCHED THE SHARPIE CREATIVE MARKERS, WHICH IS A PAINT-LIKE MARKER THAT GOES ON MULTIPLE SURFACES, AND THE PAPERMATE INK JOY BRIGHT GEL PENS. THOSE TWO ITEMS, WHICH WE STARTED SHIPPING IN FEBRUARY, ALREADY IN MARCH, ARE THE TOP-SELLING SKUs IN THE WRITING CATEGORY, AND THEIR PROPRIETARY PRODUCTS THAT REALLY OUTPERFORM THE COMPETITION. THAT'S A GOOD EXAMPLE OF WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO BRING ACROSS THE BREADTH OF BRANDS IN WHICH WE COMPETE. >> I HEAR YOU, CHRIS, THAT YOU'RE INVESTING A GOOD SUM OF MONEY IN INNOVATION, SHARPIE, YOU NAME IT. HOW -- IN LIGHT OF THAT REORGANIZATION THAT YOU ANNOUNCED A COUPLE MONTHS AGO, HOW COMMITTED ARE YOU TO BUSINESSES LIKE YANKEE CANDLE THAT PERHAPS MIGHT NOT FIT INTO THIS NEW GROWTH PROFILE OF NEWELL, AND MAYBE YOU PUT THAT ON THE SALES BLOCK AND YOU CAN PAY DOWN SOME DEBT? >> YEAH, SO, WHAT WE'VE DONE IS WE'VE MADE A SERIES OF WHERE TO PLAY CHOICES AND A SERIES OF HOW TO WIN CHOICES AS PART OF THE NEW STRATEGY. AND ON THE WHERE TO PLAY CHOICES, WHEN WE DID THE STRATEGY WORK ABOUT A YEAR AGO, WE WERE SELLING ABOUT 80 BRANDS AS A COMPANY, BUT 25 OF THOSE 80 BRANDS REPRESENTED 90% OF OUR SALES AND PROFIT, AND SO WE MADE THE STRATEGIC CHOICE TO FOCUS ON THE TOP 25 BRANDS. OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST NINE MONTHS, WE'VE ALREADY REDUCED THE COMPANY'S BRAND PORTFOLIO FROM 80 BRANDS DOWN TO ABOUT 60, SO THE QUALITY OF THE PORTFOLIO IS IMPROVING. SIMILARLY, WE MADE CHOICES ON GEOGRAPHIES. WE PLAY IN ABOUT 42 COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD, BUT THE TOP TEN COUNTRIES REPRESENT ABOUT 90% OF OUR SALES AND PROFIT, SO THAT'S WHERE WE'RE FOCUSED. I THINK WE'VE GOT A LOT OF OPPORTUNITIES ORGANICALLY. I DON'T BELIEVE THAT LARGE-SCALE M&A IS NEEDED TO DRIVE SHAREHOLDER VALUE FOR THE COMPANY IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS. >> CHRIS, IT'S STILL A VERY MASSIVE PORTFOLIO OF BRANDS THAT YOU STILL HAVE UNDER NEWELL. I'M CURIOUS WHERE YOU ARE SEEING THE MOST STRENGTH. WHERE ARE CONSUMERS SPENDING THE MOST, UP UNTIL THIS POINT? >> WE -- OUR CATEGORIES TEND TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE DISCRETIONARY, SO EMBEDDED IN OUR GUIDANCE, WE'VE SAID THAT WE EXPECT THE MARKETS IN WHICH WE COMPETE TO BE DOWN LOW SINGLE DIGITS THIS YEAR IN TERMS OF CONSUMPTION. AS CONSUMERS ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE FROM INFLATION ON FOOD COSTS, HOUSING COSTS, ENERGY COSTS, WHICH HAS OUTSTRIPPED WAGE GROWTH OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS. THAT BEING SAID, WE THINK, WITH THE CAPABILITY IMPROVEMENTS THAT WE'RE PUTTING IN TERMS OF OUR FRONT END CAPABILITY, WE'VE SET A GOAL OF GETTING BACK TO MARKET SHARE GROWTH ON OUR BRANDS SO THAT WE IMPROVE THE RATE OF CORE SALES GROWTH. AT THE SAME TIME, WE THINK WE'VE GOT A BIG OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE MARGINS AND DRIVE CASH FLOW, AND WE THINK IF WE DO THAT, WE CAN DRIVE SIGNIFICANT SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND POSITION THE COMPANY WELL FOR WHEN THE CATEGORIES BEGIN TO INFLECT POSITIVE AGAIN. >> WE'VE BEEN HAVING A LOT OF DEBATE HERE AT YAHOO! FINANCE, CHRIS, ABOUT THE INFLATIONARY OUTLOOK, BUT I IMAGINE INFLATION IS STILL VERY MUCH WITH YOUR BUSINESS? >> YEAH, WE EXPECT THIS YEAR, WE'RE SEEING INPUT COST INFLATION, LOW SINGLE DIGITS, AND REALLY THE TWO MAIN DRIVERS OF INFLATION FOR US THIS YEAR ARE LABOR AND OVERHEAD COSTS, FIRST AND FOREMOST, AND THEN SECONDLY, WE ARE SEEING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RESIN PRICES, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT OF INPUT COST INFLATION HAS REDUCED BUT IS STILL WITH US. WE ARE NOT IN A DEFLATIONARY SITUATION. THE GOOD NEWS FOR US IS THAT WE HAVE A VERY STRONG PRODUCTIVITY PROGRAM, AND WE'RE DRIVING PRODUCTIVITY SAVINGS THAT ARE ABOVE THAT LEVEL OF INFLATION, WHICH IS HELPING US DRIVE GROSS MARGIN IMPROVEMENT. >> CHRIS, WE ONLY HAVE ABOUT 30 SECONDS, BUT HAVE YOU RAISED PRICES? DO YOU PLAN TO RAISE PRICES GIVEN THAT INFLATION IS STILL A HEADWIND FOR YOUR BUSINESS? >> WE DO NOT PLAN TO RAISE PRICES IN THE U.S. THIS YEAR. WE HAVE NOT RAISED PRICES IN THE U.S. THIS YEAR, AND SOME OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS WHERE WE'RE SEEING DOLLAR STRENGTH AND CURRENCY DEVALUATION, WE ARE TAKING PRICING, BUT IN THE U.S., WE INTEND TO MAINTAIN PRICES RELATIVELY STABLE TO WHERE WE ARE TODAY. >> CHRIS PETERSON, GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE ON YAHOO! FINANCE. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME TO JOIN US, CEO OF NEWELL BRANDS. AND OF COURSE OUR THANKS TO BRIAN SOZZI AS WELL. >>> LET'S DO A QUICK CHECK OF THE MARKETS, STILL LOOKING AT GAINS ACROSS THE BOARD. YOU'VE GOT THE DOW UP AROUND 128, THE S&P UP JUST OVER 1%, THE NASDAQ, THE OUTPERFORMER, WHY? A LOT OF THAT HAS TO DO WITH MICROSOFT AND ALPHABET BOTH BEATING THE STREET'S EXPECTATIONS, BOTH SOARING IN TODAY'S TRADING ACTION, AND AS A RESULT, YOU'RE SEEING A LOT OF THOSE TECH NAMES HERE TRADING TO THE UPSIDE. COMING UP NEXT IS "WEALTH," DEDICATED TO ALL YOUR PERSONAL FINANCE NEEDS. BRAD SMITH HAS YOU FOR THE NEXT HOUR. HE'S GOING TO BE DOING A DEEPER DIVE INTO WHAT THE RESULTS FROM ALPHABET AND MICROSOFT MEAN FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO. STAY TUNED. >>> WELCOME TO "WEALTH," EVERYONE, I'M BRAD SMITH, AND THIS IS YAHOO! FINANCE'S NEWEST GUIDE TO BUILDING YOUR FINANCIAL FOOTPRINT. OUR COMMUNITY OF EXPERTS WILL GIVE YOU THE RESOURCES, THE TOOLS, THE TIPS AND THOSE TRICKS THAT YOU NEED TO GROW YOUR MONEY. ON TODAY'S SHOW, RISING MORTGAGE RATES, IS IT CHEAPER TO BUY OR RENT A HOUSE? >>> AND THE BEST CREDIT CARDS FOR YOUR NEXT HOME IMPROVEMENT PROJECT. OUR REPORTER LAYS THE DETAILS BARE. PLUS, MEME STOCK, WE TALKED TO AN EXPERT ABOUT WHETHER STOCKS THAT GAP UP METEORICALLY HIGH AND LATER COME BACK DOWN TO EARTH, THINK GAMESTOP AND AMC, THEY MAKE SOUND INVESTMENTS. . FIRST WE LOOK AT THE ACTION 90 MINUTES INTO THE TRADING DAY. ALL THREE MAJOR AVERAGES ARE IN THE GREEN. THE DOW IS UP BY ABOUT .3% OF, S&P 500 UP BY ABOUT 1.1%, AND THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE TECH-HEAVY IS BOOSTED BY EARNINGS RESULTS, UP BY 2.2%. INVESTORS NOT PHASED BY A HIGHER THAN EXPECTED REPORT. CORE EPC, 1/10% HOTTER THAN EXPECTED. THE NASDAQ GETTING A BOOST FROM TECH EARNINGS. ALPHABET, SNAP, ALL OUT WITH RESULTS, ALL TOP TRENDING TICKERS ON THE YAHOO! FINANCE PLATFORM. ALPHABET SURGING ON ITS FIRST EVER CASH DIVIDEND AND STOCK REPURCHASE PROGRAM. EXECUTIVES STRESSING DURING THE EARNINGS CALL THAT ALPHABET IS WELL POSITIONED TO LEAD THE SHIP TO AN AI-CENTRIC TECH WORLD. WE HAVE SHARES OF MICROSOFT AND FST RISING ON A TOP AND BOTTOM BEAT, BUOYED BY STRENGTH IN THE CLOUD BUSINESS. THE COMPANY'S CFO, AMY HOOD, SAYING DEMAND IS OUT PACING CAPACITY. SHARES OF EXXON MOBIL AND CHEVRON FALLING AFTER REVENUE FOR BOTH CAME IN LOWER THAN THE YEAR BEFORE. WELL, LET'S GET BACK TO GOOGLE'S PARENT COMPANY, ALPHABET, ANNOUNCING THE FIRST EVER DIVIDEND AND ISSUING A STOCK BUYBACK THIS WEEK, AT THE END OF THE DAYING THE-- OUR OWN JULIE HYMAN. >> LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT THE DIVIDEND IS BUYBACK IS. $0.20, PAYABLE ON JUNE 17th TO SHAREHOLDERS AS OF JUNE 10th. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? YOU HAVE FROM NOW UNTIL JUNE 10th TO BUY THE SHARES IF YOU DON'T HAVE THEM ALREADY. AND ON JUNE 17th, YOU WOULD GET $0.20 FROM ALPHABET FOR EVERY SHARE THAT YOU HOLD. AS FOR THE BUYBACK AUTHORIZATION, THAT $70 BILLION, IT'S THE SAME AS IT WAS LAST YEAR. AND A BUYBACK AUTHORIZATION DOESN'T MEAN THAT THEY'RE NECESSARILY GOING TO BUY BACK $70 BILLION WORTH OF THEIR OWN SHARES. IT MEANS THAT THEY CAN WHEN THEY SEE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MARKET. THEY HAVE THAT AUTHORIZATION COMING FROM THE BOARD. SO LET'S SORT OF DIG INTO THIS A LITTLE BIT MORE. HOW A DIVIDEND WORKS, HOW A SHARE BUYBACK WORKS AND WHY COMPANIES DO THEM. TAKING THE DIVIDEND, FIRST OF ALL, YOU HAVE TO GET APPROVAL FROM A BOARD TO DO ANYTHING FOR THE COMPANIES, AND BASICALLY YOU GET A PIECE OF THE ACTION. THAT'S ALL IT MEANS HERE IS THAT IF YOU HOLD SHARES IN A PARTICULAR COMPANY, YOU WILL GET, AGAIN, THAT SET AMOUNT PER QUARTER FOR EVERY SHARE THAT YOU HOLD. IN THE CASE OF A BUYBACK, AND IT'S BASICALLY A LITTLE REWARD FOR HOLDING THOSE SHARES, AND IT'S A SHARING OF THE PROFITS OF THE COMPANY. A BUY BACK IS A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT BECAUSE THOSE PROFITS DO NOT FLOW DIRECTLY TO YOU. IT'S MORE INDIRECT. SO WHEN A COMPANY BUYS BACK SHARES, THEY REDUCE THE TOTAL SHARES OUTSTANDING, LESS SUPPLY OF SHARES MEANS IT TENDS TO BOOST THE PRICE, AND IT TENDS TO PROVIDE A BIT OF A FLOOR UNDERNEATH THE SHARES. IT'S ALSO A SIGNAL POTENTIALLY FROM A COMPANY THAT IT THINKS ITS SHARES ARE WELL VALUED. THAT'S WHY IT'S STEPPING INTO THE MARKET. IN TERMS OF SPECIFICALLY FOR ALPHABET, WHAT THIS MEANS, WE HAVE TO PUT THIS IN CONTEXT. A LOT OF TECH COMPANIES DO NOT PAY OUT DIVIDENDS. THEY ARE VIEWED AS GROWTH COMPANIES. AS GROWTH COMPANIES, THEY TEND TO REINVEST THE PROFITS IN THE BUSINESS. THEY DON'T PAY THEM OUT TO YOU. THEY'RE FOCUSED ON GROW, GROW, GROWING. ALPHABET, SAW A HUGE INCREASE IN CAPEX, CAPITAL EXPENDITURES BECAUSE IT WAS DOING JUST THAT, AND IT DECIDED TO PAY OUT THE MONEY. THE FACT THAT A BIG GROWTH STOCK AND TECH COMPANY LIKE ALPHABET IS PAYING THIS OUT COULD SIGNAL ACCORDING TO ANALYSTS THAT THEY SEE SLOWING GROWTH AHEAD, SO THEY NEED TO OFFER YOU A LITTLE CARAT IN THE FORM OF THE PROFIT SHARING TO SOFTEN THE BLOW OF THE GROWTH. WE DON'T KNOW THAT. THAT'S SORT OF THE IMPLICATION. THAT'S AN INTERESTING WAY TO READ INTO THIS. IF YOU LOOK AT DIVIDEND YIELDS OF OTHER LARGE CAP TECH STOCKS, A LOT OF BIG CAP TECH DOES NOT NECESSARILY PAY OUT DIVIDENDS HERE. HERE'S A FEW EXAMPLES. AND THE DIVIDEND YIELD IS EFFECTIVELY THE AMOUNT THAT A COMPANY PAYS OUT IN DIVIDENDS ANNUALLY, DIVIDED BY THE STOCK PRICE. INH NVIDIA'S IS VERY SMALL BECAUSE THE STOCK PRICE HAS GONE UP SO MUCH. THEY PAY OUT $0.04. ITS DIVIDEND ALSO RELATIVELY LOW AS IS APPLE'S. YOU CAN COMPARE THAT WITH THE S&P 500'S DIVIDEND YIELD AT ABOUT 1.4%, AND THE NASDAQ 100, WHICH IS TECH-HEAVY AT 0.9%. THESE COMPANIES ARE PAYING OUT LOWER DIVIDEND YIELDS, HIGHER SECTORS LIKE BANKS, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT JUST GIVES YOU AN IDEA OF THE LANDSCAPE. ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT DIVIDENDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT MORE, BRAD. >> IT WAS THE PERFECT AMOUNT. THAT'S BEEN A MAJOR QUESTION FOR A LOT OF INVESTORS OVER THE COURSE OF THE YEAR, DO THEY EVEN DIVIDEND, ESSENTIALLY, TO SUMMARIZE, BECAUSE NOW, FOR SOME OF THESE COMPANIES, IT'S A WAY TO COZY UP TO THE INVESTOR THAT LOOKS AT DIVIDEND PAYING COMPANIES AS A THEMATIC STRATEGY SFL TH . >> THERE ARE A LOT OF DIVIDEND STRATEGIES, EQUITY INCOME STRATEGIES, BECAUSE YOU'RE GETTING INCOME FROM YOUR INVESTMENTS. THERE ARE A LOT OF ETFs BUILT AROUND THAT, A LOT OF MUTUAL FUNDS BUILT AROUND THAT, AND BANK OF AMERICA NOTING TODAY IN ITS NOTE REACTING TO THIS THAT PER THEIR PORTFOLIO STRATEGIST THAT 40% OF ACTIVELY MANAGED U.S. EQUITY ASSETS ARE EQUITY-INCOME FUNDS. THEY FOCUS ON THOSE DIVIDENDS CH. SO THIS POTENTIALLY MEANS THAT ALPHABET IS ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THOSE FUNDS AND THAT COULD GIVE A FURTHER BOOST TO THE SHARES. >> JULIE, THANKS FOR BREAKING THIS DOWN FOR US. >> OF COURSE. >> VERY IMPORTANT INFORMATION ON DIVIDENDS AND BUYBACKS THERE. WE HAVE HEARD A LOT ABOUT THAT OVER THE COURSE OF THE EARNINGS SEASON. ALSO, WE HAVE HEARD ABOUT INFLATION RECENTLY. INFLATION REMAINS STUBBORN, ACCORDING TO THE FED'S INFLATION GAUGE. THE CORE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES KNOWN AS CORE PCE. COMING IN AT 2.8% IN MARCH ON AN ANNUAL BASIS, VERSUS 2.7% THAT WAS EXPECTED. THIS IS JUST THE NEWEST DATA POINT IN A LINE OF REPORTS THAT HAVE INVESTORS RETHINKING THE TIMING OF RATE CUTS. ONLY 30% OF TRADERS ARE PRICING IN THAT FIRST RATE CUT IN JULY, ACCORDING TO THE CME FED WATCH TOTAL, YOU'RE SEEING THERE, AND THE PROBABILITY. STOCKS REGAINING SOME GROUND TODAY AFTER LOSSES THURSDAY AROUND A SOFT GDP READING. THE S&P 500 AND NASDAQ GETTING A BIG BOOST FROM TECH EARNINGS AS WELL IN THE AFTER MARKET TRADING ACTIVITY, AND GOING INTO THE PRE-MARKET, AND NOW EXTENDED INTO TODAY'S ACTIVITY. SO FOR MORE ON THIS, AND ALL OF IT, WE TURNED TO BRIAN MOBERRY, THE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CLIENT PORTFOLIO MANAGER. GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE WITH US. OKAY, SO IT'S BEEN A WHIRLWIND OF A WEEK WITH ECONOMIC DATA, DATA COMING FROM COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS. SOME OF THE MAG 7 COMPANIES. THE MARKET IS GETTING A TROVE OF INFORMATION COMING OUT AT A FIRE HOSE SPEED. >> WE'RE HAVING A REPRICING OF IT THAT'S HAPPENING IN THE MOORKT RIGHT NOW. THAT IS AROUND HIGHER FOR LONGER INTEREST RATES. AS YOU SHOWED, THE LIKELIHOOD OF RATE CUTS SOON DECLINING, AND THAT'S BECAUSE PRICES ARE STAYING VERY STICKY. THE OTHER MEASURE OF INFLATION WOULD BE THE CORE CPI, AND WHAT WE'RE SEEING LINED UP WITH THAT PCE NUMBER WE GOT TODAY IS A MONTH OVER MONTH TREND OF JUST VERY STICKY CORE PRICES AROUND .4 AND .3% ALL YEARLONG, AND THAT JUST SIMPLY MEANS THAT PRICES AREN'T GOING DOWN. THE FED HAS TOLD US, THEIR TARGET IS 2% INFLATION, AND THEY DON'T REALLY HAVE ENOUGH INFORMATION OR DATA TO TRULY DECLINE WHAT WOULD BE INTEREST RATES TODAY. SO THE MARKET HAS TO REPRICE THAT. THINK OF IT THIS WAY, AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, THEY WERE DEPENDING ON FOUR OR FIVE RATE CUTS, WHICH MEANS THE YEAR AND INTEREST RATE WOULD BE 4% OR SLIGHTLY LESS. NOW THEY HAVE TO REPRICE FUTURE EARNINGS AGAINST A 5% YEAR END INTEREST RATE REFLECTING 1 OR 2 RATE CUTS POSSIBLE, AND THAT'S SHIFTING THE DYNAMIC OF HOW FUTURE EARNINGS ARE GOING TO BE VALUE VA VALUED. IT HAS TWISTED THINGS TO WHERE WE SAW TESLA COME OUT WITH A MISS ON TOP LINE AND BOTTOM LINE EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS, BUT THE STOCK WENT UP BECAUSE THEY ARE SHOWING BETTER FUTURE GROWTH OVER THE NEXT FEW QUARTERS THAN WHAT THE MARKET IS OFFERING RIGHT NOW. WE COULD COMPARE THAT TO THE S&P 500 WHERE WE STARTED AT 11 OR 12% EARNINGS GROWTH, $225 A SHARE UP TO 250. NOW THAT'S BEING DIALED BACK UNDER THE WEIGHT OF HIGHER INTEREST RATES TO AROUND $242 PER SHARE. ONLY A 7 OR 8% EARNINGS GROWTH. TESLA IS MOVING UP EARNINGS BY 14 TO 18%, WHICH IS WHAT THEY EXPECT, NOW YOU'RE GETTING DOUBLE THE GROWTH IN THAT STOCK THAN WHAT YOU'RE GETTING FROM THE OVERALL MARKET, AND THAT'S WHY THE STOCK PRICE WENT UP. AND SO THAT'S REALLY JUST THE DYNAMIC THAT WE'RE SEEING, IS THAT IN IN THIS MOMENT, THE EARNINGS IN THE CURRENT QUARTER AREN'T AS IMPORTANT AS THE GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF QUARTERS FOR INVESTORS RIGHT NOW. >> IT'S INTERESTING, YOU MENTIONED TESLA. TESLA HAD BEEN WITHIN THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN LEXICON, AND OVER THE COURSE OF 2024, WE HAVE SEEN THAT MAGNIFICENT SEVEN CONVERSATION SHIFT INTO THE BIG THREE OR FANTASTIC FOUR. WE HAVE HEARD A FEW DIFFERENT NUMBERS TOSSED AROUND. ULTIMATELY HERE, IT STILL DOES COME BACK TO A FEW THINGS IN THE KIND OF INTERSECTION OF ROADS HERE WITH THE FED'S PATHWAY AND THE POLICY THERE AS WELL AS WHAT THE ACTUAL THEMATIC PLAY OF GENERATIVE AI LOOKS LIKE, AND THE INVESTING AND THE AMOUNT THAT THE COMPANIES ARE WILLING TO INVEST, THAT'S PART OF THAT INTERSECTION. HOW DOES A SHIFT IN TIMING OF RATE CUTS SHIFT THE PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN OVER INDEXED ON THE MAG 7 TRAILED? >> THE SIMPLE MATTER IS HIGHER INTEREST RATES MAKE THE VALUE OF FUTURE EARNINGS GO DOWN. REALLY IT BECOMES A QUESTION OF ARE YOU PROPERLY MANAGING COSTS AND A HIGHER INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT AT THE SAME TIME. AND WE'RE SEEING FROM THESE MAGNIFICENT 7 STOCKS A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT ANSWER TO THOSE QUESTIONS. TO YOUR POINT AT THE INTERSECTION, WHAT WE'RE FINDING FROM MICROSOFT IN PARTICULAR IS THE CLOUD GROWTH IS UP 23% IN TERMS OF REVENUE. AGAIN, THAT'S THREE TIMES WHAT YOU'RE GETTING FROM THE MARKET. AND IT ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE MOST PROFITABLE BUSINESS SEGMENT THAT MICROSOFT RUNS. SO THAT LEADS TO A BETTER EXPECTATION OF EARNINGS GROWTH ON A NET BASIS GOING FORWARD. SO AGAIN, THE MARKET IS LIKING THAT. GOOGLE ALSO A STRONG COMMITMENT NOW TO SHAREHOLDER VALUE. TWO YEARS IN A ROW, $70 BILLION IN SHARE BUYBACKS, REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF SHARES TRADED INCREASES THE PRICE AND NOW THEY'RE SHARING A DIVIDEND AS WELL. SO THEY'RE LOOKING AT IT IN A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT WAYS. THESE COMPANIES ARE IN A VERY STRONG CASH FLOW POSITION ARE SAYING, WE'RE GOING TO DOMINATE THIS. WHETHER INTEREST RATES ARE HIGHER OR NOT, AND WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THE OTHER BUSINESSES HAVE TO STRUGGLE IN ORDER TO CONTROL COSTS AND A HIGHER COST OF CAPITAL AT THE SAME TIME. AND THAT'S REALLY GOING TO BE THE DIVIDING LINE FOR INVESTORS GOING FORWARD. KNOW WHAT YOU OWN, KNOW WHY YOU OWN IT, AND REALLY PAY ATTENTION TO THOSE HIGH QUALITY STOCKS THAT HAVE LOW LEVELS OF DEBT, GOOD FREE CASH FLOW METRICS, AND GENERALLY SPEAKING, YOU MIGHT WANT TO LOOK FOR COMPANIES THAT HAVE LOW SHORT INTEREST AS WELL. >> THERE ARE SOME FOLKS THAT MAY BE WATCHING AND SAYING, HEY, HOW DO I -- LOOKING AT WHAT I'M GOING TO INVEST IN AND KNOWING WHY I OWN IT, HOW DO I KIND OF REMOVE EMOTION FROM A YEAR WHERE WE'VE GOT ELECTIONS THAT COULD COMBAT THE MARKETS, EXOGENOUS THREATS, WE DON'T KNOW WHERE THAT MIGHT COME FROM, BUT THAT HAD PERHAPS BROADER NEAR TERM IMPACTS TOO. THAT IMPACTS THE STRATEGY FOR A LOT OF PORTFOLIOS THAT MAY BE LOOK TO GO RETIRE SOON, AND SO HOW DO YOU KIND OF REMOVE THAT FEAR, THAT EMOTION WHERE YOU NEED TO BE STRATEGIC? >> IT'S A GREAT QUESTION, BRAD, THANK YOU, AND THAT'S REALLY THOSE QUALITY FACTORS THAT I JUST DESCRIBED. THOSE COMPANIES THAT HAVE LOW DEBT EXPOSURE AND GOOD FREE CASH FLOW METRICS MEANS THEY'RE ABLE TO PIVOT THEIR BUSINESS IF THEY NEED TO. ONE OF THE EXOGENOUS EVENTS WERE TO HAPPEN, THEY ARE ACTUALLY IN A BETTER POSITION TO BE ABLE TO SHIFT THEIR BUSINESS IF THEY NEEDED TO, AND THEY HAVE LOW LEVELS OF STRESS. STANDARD DEVIATION WOULD BE A MEASURE MEANING THAT IF THE MARKET IS MOVING IN A PARTICULAR WAY, PARTICULARLY TO THE DOWNSIDE, THESE TYPES OF COMPANIES HAVE LESS DOWNDRAFT IN THOSE MOMENTS OF TIME. THIS IS WHERE SHAREHOLDERS ARE GOING TO GO IF THEY'RE LOOKING FOR A SAFE HAVEN. BETTER PROFIT STRUCTURES, LOW LEVELS OF DEBT MEAN THEY'RE LESS INFLUENCED BY NEGATIVE EVENTS THAT HAPPEN IN THE MARKETPLACE. A PERSON WANTS TO MAKE SURE THEY'RE PROTECTING MORE OF THEIR ASSETS TO THE DOWNSIDE, RATHER THAN BEING CONCERNED ABOUT DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH, THIS IS DEFINITELY WHERE YOU WOULD WANT TO GO. REMEMBER, DIFVIDENDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED 40 TO 50% OF THE RETURN, HAVING A STRONG, STABLE BASE OF HIGH INCOME PAYING STOCKS IS ALSO A GREAT WAY TO DEFEND YOUR PORTFOLIO AGAINST DOWNSIDE VOLATILITY. >> BRIAN MULLBERRY, ZACK'S INVESTMENT THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THE CONTENT AND INSIGHT HERE. REALLY APPRECIATE IT. >> THANK YOU. HOME BUYER DEMAND TAKING A HIT AS MORTGAGE RATES STAY ABOVE 7% FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW. THE UPTICK IN RATES IS CERTAINLY A SOUR NOTE FOR POTENTIAL HOME BUYERS LOOK TO GO GET IN DURING THE SPRING SELLING SEASON. SO, WITH STICKY INFLATION PUSHING MORTGAGE RATES HIGHER, SHOULD YOU RENT AN APARTMENT OR BUY A HOUSE RIGHT NOW. YAHOO! FINANCE'S DANI ROMERO HAS THE DETAILS. HEY, DANI. >> BRAD, CONSUMERS ARE DEALING WITH HIGH MORTGAGE RATES THAT ARE HOVERING ABOVE 7%, AND RENT PRICES THAT ARE FALLING. WHICH MARKET IS BETTER TO PENCIL OUT HERE? WELL, DATA FROM REALTOR.COM SHOWS THE MONTHLY MEDIAN RENT IN FEBRUARY WAS ABOUT $1,700: THAT'S $4 LOWER THAN IN JANUARY. THAT'S ENOUGH TO BUY YOU A McDONALD'S BIG MAC EVERY MONTH. JUST A SUGGESTION. THE BIGGEST PRICE CUTS IN THE RENTAL MARKET WERE FOR A STUDIO APARTMENT. THE MEDIAN PRICE TAG A MONTH WAS ABOUT $1,400. TWO-BEDROOM AND ONE-BEDROOM APARTMENT PRICES FELL. IF YOU'RE CONSIDERING BUYING A HOME, DATA FROM RED FIN SHOWS THE MEDIAN MONTHLY PAYMENT ON A HOME, HIT A RECORD. IT'S ABOUT 28 HU$2,800 A MONTH. THAT'S A 13% INCREASE FROM THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. MORTGAGE RATES ARE PARTIALLY TO BLAME HERE. THE AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE IS HOVERING ABOVE 7%, PUSHING HOME OWNERSHIP OUT OF REACH. THE OTHER THING IS THAT IT HAS BECOME CLEAR THAT THE FED WILL KEEP THESE INTEREST RATES HIGHER FOR LONGER SO THE DREAM OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S RATE CUT LOOKS MORE DISTANT NOW. >> THANK YOU, APPRECIATE IT. A LOT MORE TO MONITOR IN THE SHELTER PART OF THE BROADER INFLATIONARY PICTURE HERE. SHARES SEPARATELY OF CHEVRON ON THE ENERGY SIDE HERE. LET'S SHIFT THERE. SHARES OF CHEVRON AND EXXON SLIDING THIS MORNING AFTER MIXED REPORTS. BOTH POSTED REVENUE DECLINES FROM THE PRIOR YEAR BUT WILL THE REPORTS HAVE AN IMPACT ON YOUR GAS PRICES? THAT'S A BIG QUESTION. TO HELP US ANSWER THIS QUESTION IS OUR VERY OWN INES FERRE. >> LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE REASONS FOR THE PROFITS DECLINE FOR THE BIG OIL COMPANIES. NATURAL GAS PRICES BEING DOWN, AND REFINING MARGINS WERE LOWER. THE MARGIN BETWEEN THE PRICE OF THE FEED STOCK, CRUDE OIL, FOR EXAMPLE, AND THE REFINED PRODUCT. REMEMBER THESE BIG OIL COMPANIES HAVE NUMEROUS REFINERIES. WHEN WE TAKE A LOOK AT GASOLINE PRICES, THOUGH, THEY ARE SITTING AT $3.66 PER GALLON ON A NATIONAL AVERAGE. FROM A WEEK AGO, THAT'S DOWN ABOUT $0.02. SO THOSE PRICES MAY HAVE PEAKED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR, THAT'S ACCORDING TO TOM CLOSA AT OPUS, WE LOOK AT THE NATIONAL AVERAGES. WE LOOK AT CALIFORNIA, FOR EXAMPLE, ONE OF THE PRICIEST STATES IN THE COUNTRY, YOU'RE SEEING THAT IT'S AT $5.40 PER GALLON. LAST WEEK AT $5.45. SO PERHAPS CALIFORNIA ALSO SEEING ITS PEAK. THAT'S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THEIR YEAR, AND IN FACT, WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE RELIEF IN SOME AREAS, BUT JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT THAT YOU WERE IN THE CLEAR OR SECOND WAVE OF RETAIL PRICE HIKES MAYBE JUST AROUND THE CORNER IN AUGUST. THAT'S WHEN WE TEND TO SEE THE PRICES GO HIGHER AROUND SEPTEMBER. WE'RE SEEING THAT THE PRICES ARE PEAKING AGAIN, AND THEN DECLINE INTO THE END OF THE YEAR. SO WHAT ANALYSTS ARE SAYING IS THAT WON'T HAVE AN IMPACT ON GASOLINE PRICES UNTIL THE LAST 100 DAYS OF THE YEAR, BRAD. >> THANK YOU SO MUCH, IKEEPING TABS ON ALL THINGS OIL, GAS AND ENERGY. >>> LET'S DO A QUICK CHECK OF THE MARKETS HERE. WE'RE JUST A LITTLE OVER 90 MINUTES INTO THE START OF TRADE. THIS MARKET CHECK IS SPONSORED BY TASTY TRADE, THE DOW, S&P 500, AND NASDAQ, WE'VE GOT GREEN. DOW UP BY 2/10 OF A PERCENT. HOLDING ON TO GAINS. THE S&P 500 UP NEARLY A PERCENT AND THE NASDAQ UP NEARLY 2%. 311 POINTS IN POSITIVE TERRITORY. >>> COMING UP, INTEL SHARES TAKING A HIT TODAY AFTER ITS FIRST QUARTER EARNINGS REPORT. WE SPEAK WITH CEO PAT GELSINGER, TO HEAR MORE ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE FOUNDRY BUSINESS AND ITS PLACE IN THE AI ARMS RACE. THAT IS COMING UP NEXT. THERE YOU SEE PAT. PAT, STICK AROUND. WE'RE COMING TO YOU IN A HOT SECOND. >>> INTEL REPORTS STRONG FIRST QUARTER EARNINGS ON THURSDAY AFTER THE CLOSING BELL, BUT LOTS OF FOCUS BY INVESTORS ON THE COMPANY'S OUTLOOK, WHICH ARE PUTTING SOME PRESSURE ON SHARES OF INTEL TODAY. LET'S GET RIGHT TO INTEL'S CEO PAT GELSINGER, THANKS FOR MAKING TIME WITH US, TRAVELING THE COUNTRY. THANK YOU AS ALWAYS. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE OUTLOOK, AND WE'LL GO BACK TO THE QUARTER A LITTLE BIT. TELL US AND EXPLAIN TO US SOME OF THE THINGS THAT YOU'RE SEEING THAT WARRANTED THAT LITTLE BIT MORE CAUTIOUS SECOND QUARTER GUIDANCE THAN THE STREET WAS EXPECTING. >> THANKS, SOZZI, COMING OFF A STRONG Q1, PROGRESS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR, BUT A LITTLE BIT MORE TEPID IN Q2. WE'RE ABLE TO SEE A LITTLE BIT BETTER EARNINGS THAN EXPECTED IN Q1. SOME OF THAT WAS THERE. OVERALL, THE MARKET IS A LITTLE BIT WEAKER, EVEN AS EVERYBODY IS PROJECTING THE SECOND HALF BEING MUCH STRONGER. SO THAT OUTLOOK GOT A LITTLE BIT OF REACTION FOR IT, BUT FROM OUR VIEW, HEY, A FIRST HALF, SECOND HA HALF STORY, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW IN '23, WE HAVE A LOT OF GREAT THINGS HAPPENING IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR. WE FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE OUTLOOK WE HAD, VERY PROUD THAT WE HAD A GOOD SOLID EXECUTION IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE YEAR AND THE LONG-TERM STRATEGY IS COMING TOGETHER AS WE WOULD EXPECT. WE GOT A LOT DONE IN THE FIRST QUARTER, A LOT TO BUILD ON FOR THE FUTURE. >> PAT, THAT WEAKNESS, IS IT -- LET'S LOOK AT IT FROM TWO PERSPECTIVES? IS IT PC DEMAND OR IS IT DEMAND FROM BIG COMPANIES OR ENTERPRISES? >> I WILL SAY OVERALL, THE MARKET WAS A LITTLE BIT WEAKER AS WE SEE IT SHAPING UP IN Q2 BUT RETURNING IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR. IT'S A BIT OF MARKET WEAKNESS. WE ALSO SAW UNIQUE ISSUES, THE AIPC IS HOT. WE WEREN'T ABLE TO SATISFY ALL OF THE DEMAND REQUESTS THAT WE'VE GOT. SO WE'RE, YOU KNOW, MEETING OUR COMMITMENTS, BUT WE'RE NOT HITTING THE UP SIDE REQUESTS, A LITTLE BIT OF OUR OWN OPPORTUNITY THERE THAT WE WEREN'T ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE, AND WE'RE WORKING HARD TO SATISFY THE MARKET REQUESTS, BUT OVERALL, WE ALSO HAVE BUSINESSES THAT ARE COMING OUT OF INVENTORY CHALLENGES AS WELL. WE SAW THAT WITH MOBILE I, OR SPGA BUSINESS, SO AS THEY FINISH THEIR INVENTORY IMPROVEMENTS THAT WE SEE JUST HAPPENING VERY NATURALLY IN THOSE BUSINESSES THAT THE SECOND HALF WILL BE MARKEDLY BETTER AS WELL. UNIQUE INVENTORY, SOME IN THE MARKET, AND SOME OF OUR OWN CATCHING UP TO ACCELERATE A DEMAND PARTICULARLY IN THE HOT AI PC CATEGORY. >> I HAVEN'T HEARD YOU SAY THAT BEFORE, HOT AI PC. ARE YOU STILL LOOKING FOR 40 MILLION SHIPMENTS THIS YEAR? >> YEAH, I'M DRIVING OUR TEAM SUPER AGGRESSIVELY, AND EVERY DAY THE MARKET IS REINFORCING, YOU KNOW, THIS ENTHUSIASM FOR THE CATEGORY, AND WE BELIEVE THAT WE CAN GO OVER 40 MILLION UNITS THIS YEAR. I'M GOING TO PUSH OUR TEAM SUPER AGGRESSIVELY. OBVIOUSLY THE CORE ULTRA IS THE DEFINING PRODUCT FOR THE AI PC CATEGORY. WE'LL BE INTRODUCING OUR SECOND GENERATION PRODUCT WITH CODE NAME LUNAR LAKE AND ARROW LAKE LATER THIS YEAR. WE'RE DELIVERING A SECOND GENERATION OR THIRD GENERATION PRODUCT THAT WE CALL PANTHER. IT IS OUR FIRST NEXT GENERATION PROCESS. THAT WILL BE COMING FORWARD NEXT YEAR. WE HAVE A STRONG ROAD MAP LINED UP. COMPELLING USE CASE ACROSS, YOU KNOW, COLLABORATION APPLICATIONS, DEVELOPER APPLICATIONS, TRAINING, AND I'M SHOWING OFF HOW WE'RE USING THE AIPC IN OUR OWN FACTORIES FOR IMPROVED YIELD AND PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT OF OUR FACTORIES. REALLY EXCITING PERIOD OF TIME. I THINK THE BIGGEST CYCLE OF PC SURGE IS JUST GETTING STARTED WITH THE AI PC, AND THE WINDOWS REFRESH LATER THIS YEAR WILL BE HELPFUL FOR THE CATEGORY AS WELL. >> EVERY TIME I TALK TO YOU, I'M BLOWN AWAY BY HOW MUCH THERE'S JUST GOING ON INSIDE OF INTEL RIGHT NOW. ARE ALL OF THESE NEW PRODUCTS WE TALKED ABOUT TODAY, AND THEN OVER THE PAST YEAR, ARE THEY ALL ON SCHEDULE FOR THIS CAREER TO RELEASE ON TIME AND CUSTOMERS WILL GET THEM? >> YEAH, ONE OF THE THINGS I'M REALLY PROUD ABOUT OVER THE THREE YEARS OF REBUILDING INTEL IS WE'VE GONE FROM A PERIOD WHERE CUSTOMERS COULDN'T TRUST US TO HIT OUR PRODUCT SCHEDULES AND NOW WE'RE HITTING THE FRONT END OF BEST CASE SCHEDULES WITH CUSTOMERS PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD, AND YOU KNOW, THAT IS JUST REALLY REBUILDING THEIR CONFIDENCE, AND YOU KNOW, FOR INSTANCE, WE JUST ANNOUNCED OUR FIRST ZION 6 PRODUCT WITH OUR VERY EFFICIENT, YOU KNOW, POWER PERFORMANCE COURSE AS PART OF IT, AND THAT WAS THE BEST CASE SCHEDULE THAT WE DELIVERED. THE FIRST PRODUCT ON INTEL 3 COMING IN TO THE MARKETPLACE, AND THE FIRST TIME IN A DECADE THAT THE U.S. HAS BEEN MANUFACTURING THE MOST LEADING EDGE TECHNOLOGY IN THE WORLD. SO PRODUCTS LIKE THAT ARE REBUILDING CONFIDENCE, A STRONGER PRODUCT LINE ALLOWS US TO STABILIZE AND REGAIN MARKET SHARE, SO OVERALL, WE'RE DOING WHAT WE SAID WE WOULD, AND I'M PROUD OF THE EXECUTION OF OUR TEAM IN MAKING THAT HAPPEN. >> PAT, VERY EARLY THIS MORNING, I WAS TAPING MY NEW PODCAST, OPENING BID, AND THE GUEST WE HAD ON, HE REMINDED ME THAT OVER TIME, STOCKS DO, IN FACT, GO UP, IT'S ABOUT INVESTING FOR THE LONG-TERM. A LOT OF INVESTMENTS YOU'RE PUT EN ING INTO YOUR BUSINESS ARE FOR THE LONG-TERM. BY 2030, WHAT IS IT LOOKING LIKE? >> BY 2030, WE WILL BECOME THE LEADING AI SYSTEMS FOUNDRY, AND A BUSINESS THAT TODAY, AS YOU SEE IN THE NUMBERS IS TINY TODAY FOR EXTERNAL FOUNDRY, BUT WE SEE THIS BECOMING A VERY LARGE CAPABILITY AND CONSISTENT WITH THE THEME THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT, THE WORLD NEEDS GEOGRAPHICALLY BALANCED SUPPLY CHAINS. WE SAW THE CHIPS ACT COMING FORWARD THIS LAST QUARTER AS PUTTING THE STAMP ON THE NATIONAL CHAMPION INTEL AND WHAT WE'RE DOING WITH THE $45 BILLION GRANT PACKAGE THAT WAS THERE. THE MILESTONES THAT WE'RE HITTING IN OUR OWN TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT, AND THESE NEW PRODUCTS ARE COMING TO LIFE, YOU KNOW, SHOWING THAT WE'RE HITTING THE TECHNICAL AND MANUFACTURING MILE STONES TO MAKE THOSE REAL. AND AS THOSE PRODUCTS AND TECHNOLOGIES RAMP, THE FINANCIALS, YOU KNOW, AS I WOULD LIKE TO SAY, EVERY QUARTER FOR MY FOUNDRY BUSINESS GETS BETTER FROM NOW TO THE END OF THE DECADE. REVENUES IMPROVE, MARGINS IMPROVE, PROFITABILITY WILL BE GROWING. THIS WILL JUST BE THAT EVERY QUARTER WE JUST SEE THAT PROGRESS AS WE GO THROUGH LITERALLY THE REST OF THE DECADES. SO I'M VERY CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE DOING WHAT WE SAID WE WOULD. MAYBE THE MOST IMPORTANT STRATEGIC TURN AROUND IN, YOU KNOW, CORPORATE HISTORY, AND WE ARE ON TRACK TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN. >> LASTLY BEFORE I GO, LIKE I MENTIONED, YOU HAVE A LOT GOING ON AT INTEL. FROM A LEADERSHIP PERSPECTIVE, HOW DO YOU KNOW WHERE TO SPEND OR DEVOTE MOST OF YOUR TIME? ONE MINUTE I SEE YOU HANGING OUT WITH THE PRESIDENT, NOW YOU'RE TALKING TO ME. YOU'VE GOT THE EARNINGS CALL LAST NIGHT. WHAT'S YOUR DAY LOOKING LIKE? >> OBVIOUSLY TO ME, SPENDING TIME WITH CUSTOMERS AND MY ENGINEERING AND MANUFACTURING TEAMS, THOSE ARE TO ME THE MOST CRITICAL THINGS THAT I DO. RIGHT? MAKING SURE THAT WE'RE REBUILDING THAT CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP, OUR PRODUCTS ARE HITTING THE NEEDS, AND THEN, YOU KNOW, I'M A GEEK AT HEART, IF YOU KNOW, BRIAN, AND SPENDING TIME WITH THE ENGINEERS, MAKING SURE WE'RE REBUILDING THE EXECUTION MACHINE AND THE TECHNOLOGY ROAD MAPS, BUT AS ANY CEO, YOU HAVE MANY OTHER HATS TO WEAR, WHETHER THAT'S FINANCIAL HAT, YOU KNOW, WHETHER THAT'S THE PRESS AND RELATIONSHIP HATS SUCH AS THIS ONE, YOU KNOW, WHETHER THAT'S THE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS HAT THAT YOU SEE ME WEAR. BUT THE ONES THAT I WANT TO SPEND THE VAST MAJORITY OF MY TIME ARE THE CUSTOMER HAT AND THE INTERNAL FACING HAT TO MAKE SURE WE'RE REBUILDING THIS ICONIC COMPANY, A CRITICAL ROLE, YOU KNOW, FOR THE NEIATION, THE INDUSTRIAL AND THE WORLD WE ARE ON FOR TODAY. >> PAT GELSINGER, ALWAYS VERY BUSY, INTEL CEO, HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND. WE'LL TALK TO YOU SOON, SIR. >> THANKS SO MUCH, SOZZI. >>> I WANT TO TELL YOU ABOUT YAHOO! FINANCE'S BRAND NEW PODCAST, OPENING BID, HOSTED BY YOURS TRULY, NEW EPISODES EVERY FRIDAY MORNING, 8:00 A.M. EASTERN. THIS MORNING I WAS ABLE TO SIT DOWN WITH TRUIST CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AND CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AS WELL AS OUR OWN INES FERRE. HERE'S A PREVIEW. >> AS A STRATEGIST, IT'S GREAT TO BE ABLE TO SAY WE GOT THE BOTTOM OR WE GOT THE TOP. OUR PROCESS, WHAT WE TRY TO DO. >> BECAUSE I USED TO BE AN ANALYST, I LOVE MAKING THAT BIG CALL. I'M JACKED UP, I WANT TO GET ON FINANCIAL TV. >> YEAH, AND LISTEN, IT'S, YOU KNOW, YOU GOT TO BE CAREFUL BECAUSE, I MEAN, WHAT'S MORE IMPORTANT, YOU KNOW, TRYING TO BE CUTE TO GET THE EXACT BOTTOM OR SAYING HEY, THE RISK-REWARD HAS IMPROVED. LISTEN, AS A STRATEGIST, YOU HAVE YOUR GOOD CALLS AND BAD CALLS. ONE OF MY BEST CALLS, CAN I -- >> OF COURSE. TELL ME. WE'RE HERE TO TALK. >> THE OCTOBER LOW WE WROTE THE NOTE THAT DAY AS THE MARKET WAS BREAKING DOWN SAYING, YOU KNOW, WE THINK THIS IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY AND WE WERE IN LIKE, YOU KNOW, PERCENTAGE TWO WE HIT THE LOW. >> GOOD CALL. >> IN EARLY IN MY CAREER, DO YOU EVER GET BIG CALLS. NO ONE WAS WATCHING, ANYWAY, SO WHO CARED. >>> GOLD HAS HAD A RECORD RUN THIS YEAR, AND SILVER HASN'T BEEN FAR BEHIND. SILVER OUT PACING GOLD, SHY OF ITS HIGHS, THANKS TO TRADERS, RETHINKING THEIR RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS, WHILE SILVER IS DOWN FROM ITS HIGHS, OUR NEXT GUEST IS UPGRADING THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE. DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH ANALYST IS HERE, MICHAEL, TAKE US INTO YOUR THESIS ON SILVER? >> OKAY. SO, YOU KNOW, SILVER IS KIND OF BIPOLAR, IT HAS TWO DIFFERENT PERSONALITIES, RIGHT? ONE IS AS GEARING TO THE GLOBAL MANUFACTURING CYCLE, AND TWO, IS AS A SENSITIVITY TO GOLD. USUALLY WITH A BETA THAT'S ABOVE 1. AND RIGHT NOW, WITH THE GLOBAL MANUFACTURING CYCLE, NOT REALLY DOING A WHOLE LOT, YOU KNOW, I THINK IN THE U.S. CERTAINLY WE'VE KIND OF TROUGHED IN THE MID CYCLE SLOWDOWN, IN, YOU KNOW, OVER THE COURSE OF '22 AND MID 2023, AND NOW WE'RE IN A VERY SHALLOW RECOVERY FROM THAT. BUT I THINK BROAD PICTURE ON THE MANUFACTURING CYCLE IS NOT A STRONG -- NOT A VERY STRONG INPUT TO THE PRICE AT THE MOMENT. YOU KNOW, THERE CERTAINLY ARE HISTORIC INCIDENTS WHEN IT CAN BE, MOST NOTABLY IN THE LEAD UP INTO A RECESSION, AND COMING OUT OF A RECESSION FROM THAT RECOVERY, VERY -- CAN BE VERY STARK IN TERMS OF THEIR IMPACT ON SILVER, BUT RIGHT NOW, IT SEEMS TO BE THE SENSITIVITY TO GOLD THAT'S REALLY DOMINATING SILVER AT THE MOMENT, AND THAT HAS GIVEN US A BIT MORE OF A LIFT TO WHERE WE CAN EXPECT SILVER TO END UP. A LOT OF STORIES FOR SILVER AT THE MOMENT DOES COME BACK TO GOLD, IN FACT. >> IT'S SO INTERESTING. AS WE'RE CONTINUING TO TAKE A LOOK AT BOTH SILVER AND GOLD AND SOME OF THE KIND OF PRICE MOVEMENT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING NOT JUST OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE YEAR, AND THE CORRELATION YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT A MOMENT AGO. I WONDER FROM THIS POINT FORWARD WHAT THE OUTLOOK LOOKS LIKE FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR. WHAT IS GOING TO BE THE CATALYST THAT PUSHES EITHER OF THESE COMMODITIES BACK TOWARDS ALL-TIME HIGHS. >> YEAH, WELL, AND TO RECALL, WE'RE REALLY NOT THAT FAR OFF THOSE NOMINAL ALL TIME HIGHS. I THINK WHAT WE'RE SEEING AT THE MOMENT IS KIND OF THE MARKET STALKING STALK, REALLY, AFTER WHAT WE HAD IN MARCH AND APRIL, WHICH IS TO ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES, A HISTORIC INVESTMENT, A HISTORIC SIZE, WHAT WE COMPARE WITH WHAT HAPPENED IN 2013, IN TERMS OF THE OUTFLOW IN GOLD, AS THE FED WAS DIALING DOWN THE PACE UPON BUYING, AND THEN CONTRASTING THAT WITH 2022, THE BIG BOOST IN CENTRAL BANK BUYING IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR. THAT REALLY HELPED GOLD DIVERGE FROM FUNDAMENTAL BUYING. THE BUYING WE HAVE SEEN IN MARCH AND APRIL HAS BEEN OF A COMPARABLE SCALE TO WHAT WE SAW IN 2013 IN TERMS OF SELL, AND IN 2022 IN TERMS OF CENTRAL BANK BUYING, SO, YOU KNOW, THAT'S A HUGE SLUG OF INVESTMENT DEMAND THAT'S COME THROUGH, AND THE MARKET IS NOW THINKING, YOU KNOW, HOW MUCH DOES -- HOW MUCH OF A CORRECTION DO WE GET. OUR THESIS HAS BEEN THAT THE CORRECTION IS GOING TO BE RELATIVELY MODEST IN GOLD, BECAUSE INVESTORS AROUND THE WORLD CAME INTO THIS YEAR WITH A BULLISH BIAS. I THINK THE ACCELERATION IN DEMAND THAT WE HAD IN MARCH AND APRIL, THAT PACE OF ACCELERATION AND THE TIMING OF IT WAS NOT NECESSARILY FORESEEN, AND SO I THINK ANY CORRECTION IS GOING TO SEE HEALTHY INVESTMENT DEMAND TO PICK UP FROM THOSE -- FROM THAT CORRECTION, AS WE GO THROUGH THE YEAR. AND AS THE CYCLE REMAINS ON THE CARDS, EVEN IF THAT'S BEEN DIALED BACK OR PUSHED BACK BY A MASSIVE AMOUNT. I THINK THE BULLISH BIAS OVER KIND OF A, YOU KNOW, 1 TO 2 TO 3 YEAR VIEW IS STILL GOING TO REMAIN TO THE UP SIDE FOR GOLD. AND SO IT'S A MATTER OF, YOU KNOW, SILVER PLAYING ALONG WITH THAT FOR THE MOST PART, AND EVEN POTENTIALLY GETTING A LITTLE BIT OF UPLIFT IF THE MANUFACTURING CYCLE DOES IMPROVE MODERATELY, WHICH IT SEEMS LIKE IT IS. >> CERTAINLY. AND MICHAEL, YOU STARTED TO TOUCH ON EXACTLY WHAT I WAS JUST ABOUT TO ASK YOU, WHICH IS HOW MUCH OF WHAT WE'RE SEEING IN GOLD AND SILVER IS DIRECTLY CORRELATED TO THE PUSHING OUT OF SOME OF THE THOSE RATE CUTS OR AT LEAST THE PROBABILITY OF THOSE RATE CUTS FROM THE FED, AS THEY KIND OF CONTINUE ALONG THEIR OWN POLICY PATH WAY AND LOOKING AT INFLATION, CONTINUING TO REMAIN HOT, AND NOT HAVING THE KIND OF DATA IN THE KIND OF TREND THEY'RE LOOKING FOR TO FIRMLY CUT AT THIS JUNCTURE? >> YEAH, I MEAN, I THINK WE CAME INTO THE YEAR WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT IT WOULD BE ALL ABOUT THE FED, QUOTE UNQUOTE, FOR PRECIOUS METALS. AND IN THE END, IT REALLY THAT BE, BUT NOT QUITE IN THE WAY THAT WE HAD EXPECTED. I THINK THAT IF YOU HAD TOLD US WE HAD GOTTEN THE AMOUNT OF DIALING BACK OF FED EASING THAT WE HAD, WE CERTAINLY WOULD HAVE BEEN QUITE SURPRISED TO SEE GOLD WHERE IT IS AT THE MOMENT. I THINK THE OVERRIDING INFLUENCE FROM THE FED CYCLE IS THAT INVESTORS CAN STILL LOOK FORWARD TO AND ARE STILL LOOKING FORWARD TO AN EASING CYCLE. AND SO IT'S LESS IMPORTANT, THE TIMING AND THE DEPTH OF THAT CYCLE THAN THE FACT THAT THAT CYCLE WAS COMING, RATHER THAN, YOU KNOW, AT VARIOUS POINTS WHEN SOME PEOPLE THOUGHT THAT WE WOULD BE GETTING A FURTHER HIKING CYCLE. OR FURTHER, YOU KNOW, SIGNIFICANT HIKING CYCLE. AND AS LONG AS THAT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE COME TO GO PASS, I THINK THAT INVESTORS WILL MAINTAIN A BULLISH BIAS ON THE PRECIOUS AS A WHOLE. >> MICHAEL, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US HERE, BREAKING DOWN GOLD, SILVER, THE COMMODITIES LANDSCAPE, MICHAEL CHOY, THE DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH ANALYST. APPRECIATE IT. >> THANK YOU. >>> COMING UP, EVERYONE, THE KEY THINGS YOU SHOULD CONSIDER BEFORE BUYING A HOME. WE'VE DGOT THAT FOR YOU NEXT. >>> PENDING HOME SALES, WHICH MEASURES THE VOLUME OF SIGNED REAL ESTATE CONTRACTS IN A GIVEN MONTH. IT JUMPED UNEXPECTEDLY IN MARCH, UP 3.4%. EVEN WITH MORTGAGE RATES CONTINUING TO RISE OVER 7% HERE. MORE PEOPLE, PEOPLE ARE OUT THERE, THEY'RE PUTTING IN OFFERS ON HOMES. IF YOU ARE IN THE MARKET FOR A NEW HOME, WHAT SHOULD YOU BE TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION ABOUT THE MARKET. JOINING ME NOW, MARIANA, THE SUR HAN FLORIDA FOUNDING AGENT. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. I TOOK A LOOK AT YOUR LISTINGS, NOT SHABBY AT ALL, THE FLORIDA MARKET BOOMING POST COVID. ALL THESE THINGS CONSIDERED, WHAT ARE THE TOP CONSIDERATIONS PEOPLE GOING INTO THE BUYING SEASON SHOULD KEEP IN MIND. >> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. DEFINITELY NEED TO DEFINE IF THEY'RE GOING TO BUY CASH. IF THEY NEED FINANCE, THEY NEED TO GET READY BEFORE SEARCHING FOR PROPERTIES AND OFFERS. WITH THE PREAPPROVAL LOAN WITH THE LENDER, WITH THAT LETTER, NOT ONLY ARE THEY GOING TO UNDERSTAND BETTER HOW MUCH THEY CAN AFFORD. MAYBE THEY CAN AFFORD MORE THAN THEY THINK OR LESS. WITH THAT APPROVAL LETTER, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE A LOT MORE WHILE PUTTING IN AN OFFER. >> I WONDER WHAT YOU'RE SEEING IN NEGOTIATIONS RIGHT NOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE MARKET YOU'RE WITHIN AND WHERE YOU'RE SEEING BUYERS KIND OF COME IN FROM. I MEAN, IT'S PROBABLY NOT FIRST TIME HOME BUYERS, BASED ON LISTING PRICES I HAVE SEEN FOR YOUR LISTINGS, BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, THERE'S A LOT OF JUST CONVERSATION ABOUT WHERE THEY'RE TRYING TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY ARE NEGOTIATING PROPERLY FOR THEMSELVES. >> YES, WE SEE BUYERS FROM ALL OVER, ESPECIALLY I'M IN FLORIDA, DOWN IN FLORIDA, WE HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE, A LOT OF LATINS, BUT WE HAVE A LOT OF THE U.S., NEW BUYERS. WE HAD SUPPRESSED DEMAND FROM THE LAST 12, 24 MONTHS, THE TRADER THAT WE SEE NOW JUMPING TO THE MARKET. AND THAT'S WHY WE SEE HOME SALES INCREASE IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS. ESPECIALLY THIS YEAR. >> LASTLY HERE, BEFORE WE LET YOU GO. WHERE DO YOU SEE THE MARKET MOVING AS YOU KIND OF LOOK OUT INTO THE REST OF THE YEAR. A LOT OF POTENTIAL BUYERS THAT ARE STILL ON THE SIDELINES JUST WAITING FOR POTENTIAL RATE CUTS. >> DON'T WAIT FOR THE INTEREST RATES TO START TO DROP BECAUSE PRICES WILL SKYROCKET. WHAT I TELL EVERYONE IS THAT EVERY HALF A POINT DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE IS ONLY $33 MONTHLY WITH PRINCIPAL AND INTEREST IN EVERY HUNDRED DOLLARS THAT YOU BORROW. IT'S NOT A LOT. IT'S BETTER TO NEGOTIATE WHILE YOUR PRICES ARE STILL LOW BECAUSE PRICES WILL JUMP ONCE THE INTEREST RATE STARTS TO DROP, AND THAT'S THE TREND. >> MARIANA NIRO, SERHANT FLORIDA FOUNDING AGENT. THANK YOU SO MUCH. TELL RYAN I SAID HELLO. >>> ARE YOU READY TO BREAK GROUND ON A HOME RENOVATION OR DIY PROJECT, BUT IS YOUR WALLET READY? NO MATTER HOW BIG OR SMALL THE PROJECT, THE RIGHT FINANCES CAN HELP. HERE WITH MORE, WE HAVE YAHOO! FINANCE'S KENDALL LITTLE. HOW DO YOU DETERMINE THE RIGHT CARD FOR THE DIY JOB THAT YOU'RE ABOUT TO START ON? >> THERE'S A FEW THINGS YOU WANT TO CONSIDER WHEN YOU'RE COMPARING DIFFERENT CARDS FOR A HOME IMPROVEMENT PROJECT. ONE, OF COURSE, IS REWARDS, AND SOME CARDS ACTUALLY CATER TO THIS WITH CASH BACK OR OTHER REWARDS ON HOME IMPROVEMENT PURCHASES. THIS CAN LOOK LIKE UP TO 5% BACK ON THAT SPENDING, UP TO CERTAIN LIMITS, WHETHER THAT'S $500 EVERY MONTH OR $1,500 EVERY QUARTER. YOU CAN EARN REWARDS ON THE MONEY YOU'RE SPENDING, THOSE EXTRA EXPENSES THAT COME FROM YOUR PROJECT. THE SECOND ONE IS GOING TO BE A 0% APR OFFER. THESE INTRODUCTIOORY APRs CAN LT FOR 12, 15, 18 MONTHS. THAT HELPS YOU NOT OWE INTEREST ON THE PURCHASES YOU MAKE IN THE PERIOD. THE END OF THE INTRO PERIOD, ANY BALANCE YOU HAVE REMAINING IS GOING TO ACCRUE INTEREST. IT'S IMPORTANT TO PAY IT OFF OVER THAT PERIOD. IT ADDS FLEXIBILITY FOR YOU. PEOPLE MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN RETAIL CARDS FROM HOME IMPROVEMENT STORES, AND THEY WILL TYPICALLY OFFER EITHER SAVINGS ON YOUR PCURCHASE OR SPECIAL FINANCING OPTIONS. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND, IF YOU OPT INTO A SPECIAL FINANCING PLAN WITH A RETAIL CARD, THEY USUALLY CARRY DEFERRED INTEREST. INSTEAD OF ACCRUING INTEREST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR A REMAINING BALANCE, YOU COULD TAKE ON INTEREST GOING BACK TO YOUR PCURCHASE. YOU WANT TO MAKE SURE YOU PAY OFF THE BALANCE BY THE TIME THE PERIOD ENDS. >> WHAT ARE THE PROS AND CONS FOR THESE HOME IMPROVEMENT PROJECTS? >> THE BIGGEST REWARD IS SAVINGS, FLEXIBILITY, IF YOU WANT TO GET CASH BACK OR MILES OR POINTS ON YOUR PCURCHASE, A CREDIT CARD IS THE BEST WAY TO DO THAT. YOU'RE PROBABLY SPENDING MORE OVER THE COURSE OF THE PROJECT. THE REWARDS CAN OFFER SAVINGS ON REGULAR PURCHASES GOING FORWARD. A 0% APR, LIKE WE TALKED ABOUT, CAN ADD FLEXIBILITY FOR YOUR SPENDING AND HELP YOU BUY SOME TIME TO PAY OFF THOSE BIGGER PURCHASES SO YOU'RE NOT ADDING INTEREST TO THE COSTS. THAT LEADS TO ONE OF THE BIGGEST CONS, LIKE ANY CREDIT CARD P PURCHASE, WHICH IS THE POTENTIAL ADDED COST OF INTEREST. YOU WANT TO MAKE SURE YOU'RE READING THE TERMS OF AN AGREEMENT YOU SIGN UP FOR, AND YOU UNDERSTAND EXACTLY WHAT THE CONSEQUENCES ARE OF NOT PAYING OFF YOUR BALANCE FOR THE PLAN. >> EVERYONE, WE'VE GOT MUCH MORE ON "WEALTH" AFTER THE SHORT BREAK. >>> ONE SOCIAL MEDIA MEME IS A FUNNY IMAGE OR VIDEO THAT'S WIDELY SPREAD AROUND THE INTERNET, BUT IN THE WORLD OF FINANCE, IT'S A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT. MEME STOCKS ARE RECOGNIZABLE WHEN SHARES OF A COMPANY GAIN VIRAL POPULARITY, AND THEN WITNESS MASSIVE PRICE SWINGS IN SHORT. YOU MIGHT THINK OF GAMESTOP AND AMC, THEY'RE AMONG SOME OF THE MEME STOPS THAT INVESTORS HAVE MADE POPULAR IN THE PAST BY FORCING SHORT SQUEEZES, THAT, A DIFFERENT DEFINITION FOR A DIFFERENT DAY FOR YOU. THIS IS JUST ONE OF THE MANY WAYS INVESTORS CAN GET INTO THE STOCK MARKET, OUR NEXT GUEST SAYS YOU SHOULD AVOID MEME STOCKS AS YOUR INTRODUCTION AT ALL COSTS HERE. FOR MORE ON THIS, I'M JOINED BY TODD WALSH, CEO AND AUTHOR OF "EXPONENTIAL GAINS," THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TAKING TIME. YOU'RE ADVISING OF THIS BEING YOUR ENTRY POINT, MEME STOCKS BEING THE FIRST TRADE. WHY IS THAT? >> THANKS FOR HAVING ME ON. WE HAVE A GENERATION OF INVESTORS AROUND AND UNDER 30 THAT THINK STOCKS LIKE MEME STOCKS, AMC, AND GAMESTOP ARE INVESTING, WHEN REALLY THEY'RE SPECULATION. WE SAW A LOT OF INVESTORS BEYOND GEN Z AND GEN X CHASE WILD STOCKS. WE SAW SZOOM GO UP AND DROP 90%. PEOPLE NEED TO WEED OUT THE SPECULATION AND BRINGS THEM MORE INTO INVESTING. THAT'S KIND OF WHAT THE BOOK IS ABOUT. >> CERTAINLY. AND I GUESS, AS WE'RE THINKING ABOUT WHAT'S THE PROPENSITY FOR CERTAIN THEMATIC PLAYS, ESPECIALLY AMONG YOUNGER INVESTORS, WHAT ARE YOU W WITNESSING, WHAT ARE YOU SEEING, AND WHERE DOES IT HOLD VALUE VERSUS WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE KICKING OF THE TIRES ON THE FUNDAMENTALS? >> WE NEED TO GET AWAY FROM THE IDEA OF MAKING A BIG SCORE AND GET A PROCESS IN PLACE THAT LOOKS AT REVENUES AND EARNINGS. IF THERE AREN'T REVENUES AND EARNINGS AND IF THEY AREN'T GROWING PRETTY WELL AND APPRECIABLY, THEN WE'RE PROBABLY SPECULATING, AND IF WE CAN EDUCATE PEOPLE IN GENERAL ABOUT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SPECULATING AND INVESTING, I THINK WE'RE GOING TO GO A LONG WAY OF CREATING A GENERATION OF SUCCESSFUL INVESTORS? >> IS D.JT IN A MEME STOCK? >> WHAT'S DJT. >> THE TRUTH SOCIAL, EXCUSE ME. >> SORRY ABOUT THAT. IT'S ONLY AN ELECTION YEAR. WHO'S THINKING ABOUT THIS STUFF. IT'S A LITTLE SPECULATIVE HERE, LET'S BE HONEST, THERE AREN'T THE REVENUES TO BACK IT UP. THE FIRST THING WE DO WHEN WE LOOK AT ANY STOCK, WHAT ARE THE REVENUES AND ARE THEY PROJECTED TO GROW? HAVE THEY BEEN GROWING? WHAT ARE THE ACTUAL EARNINGS. REVENUE IS ONE THING. WE'VE GOT TO BRING MONEY HOME AND MAKE MONEY ON THESE INVESTMENTS. WE NEED TO LOOK AT THE EARNINGS. A LOT OF STOCKS, THERE'S A LOT OF HYPE AROUND THEM. YOU MENTIONED DJT, WE'RE STILL RUNNING INTO YOUNGER INVESTORS WHO ARE SAYING, ONCE MY AMC GETS BACK TO 40, I'M GOING TO SELL IT. THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN. GETTING A PROCESS IN PLACE, WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT BOOK IS ABOUT. CREATE THE PROCESS TO SEPARATE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SPECULATING AND INVESTING. YOU CAN SPECULATE ALL YOU WANT AS LONG AS YOU UNDERSTAND THAT WHEN YOU SPECULATE YOU MIGHT LOSE A LOT OR ALL OF YOUR INVESTMENT. WE'RE ALL ADULTS AND IF WE, YOU KNOW, CHOOSE TO LOSE A LITTLE BIT OF MONEY, THAT'S FINE, YOU CAN MAKE A LOT OF MONEY ON SOME OF THESE THINGS TOO. THE CORE OF WHAT YOU'RE DOING, ESPECIALLY FOR YOUNG PEOPLE HAS TO BE PROCESSED BASED AND BACKED BY GOOD REVENUES AND EARNINGS, OTHERWISE, YOU'RE TAKING A BIG RISK. >> TODD WALSH, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME HERE. APPRECIATE IT. >> THANKS, BRAD. >> ABSOLUTELY. EVERYONE, THAT'S IT FOR NOW. I'M BRAD SMITH, THANKS FOR WATCHING "WEALTH" ON YAHOO! FINANCE. WE'LL SEE YOU NEXT WEEK.

Channel: Yahoo Finance

Views: 5,526

Keywords: Yahoo Finance, Personal Finance, Money, Investing, Business, Savings, Investment, Stocks, Bonds, FX, NYSE, Equities, News, Politics, Market, Markets, Yahoo FInance Premium, Stock market, bonds, market, recession, inflation, Wall street, S&P 500, Inflation, CPI, energy, Forecasts, volatile, Housing, cost of food, airline fares, White House, DJI, IXIC, wall street, Apple, Amazon, jobs report, fed, US banks, Middle East, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Israel, Gaza, Russia, Crude oil futures, Microsoft, Nvidia

Id: 2gvNW1YuLQM

Length: 179min 52sec (10792 seconds)

Published: Fri Apr 26 2024