We are in the 15th month of the unprovoked
invasion of Ukraine. Let that sink in for a second: a full-scale war with hundreds of
thousands of people fighting for the 15th month in a row in Europe. As crazy as it may sound, it is
happening right now. In the second half of April, we observed Russia losing its offensive momentum
everywhere but Bakhmut. Another fortnight has passed, and we are yet to see the Ukrainian
counter-offensive, probably due to rainy weather. Welcome to another Kings and
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That’s ridge dot com slash kingsandgenerals. Russia continued making progress in
and around Bakhmut during this period. By April 19, Wagner advanced closer to
the O0506 road in the NW of the town. As Russian units already control portions of the
H-32 highway, the O0506 road remains the sole supply line controlled by Ukrainians. The loss
of these territories is even more significant because the terrain between these roads is muddy
and difficult for armored vehicles to drive on. Russians advanced around the H-32 highway two days
later and gained ground West of Dubovo-Vasylivka. On April 23, it was reported that Wagner captured
the train station in Bakhmut. By late April, Wagner had most of Bakhmut under control except
for the city's western outskirts. On April 24, Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine would not leave
Bakhmut without a fight, as losing this city would allow Russians to “widen their front” and capture
more Ukrainian territory, opening a way for the Russians army to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. At
this moment, it looks like Bakhmut is on the brink of falling, and the Ukrainian army would
have to fall back to the next defensive line. But apparently, the situation of Wagner units
in the Bakhmut section is problematic too, if we believe another rant by Prigozhin. On
April 28, he claimed that “Russia is on the brink of catastrophe”. Prigozhin indirectly
acknowledged the high rate of casualties suffered by Wagner in the battle of Bakhmut,
saying, "Wagner, in a short period of time, will cease to exist. We will become history,
nothing to worry about, things like this happen". Prigozhin also informed about his letter to Shoigu
“with a request to immediately issue ammunition. In case of refusal, I consider it necessary to
inform the Supreme Commander-in-Chief (Putin) about the existing problem in order to make a
decision and about the advisability of further presence of the "Wagner" PMC in Bakhmut
in conditions of ammunition shortage.” He added that "if the shortage does not
stop, <...> we will be forced to withdraw part of the units from this territory,
and then everything else will collapse." Prigozhin also warned the Russian public
that the Ukrainian counter-offensive would start no later than May 15. The Wagner chief
is basically trying to blackmail the Russian command into giving his team of mercenaries more
shells, threatening with a withdrawal otherwise. Prigozhin has been less belligerent towards the
Russian Ministry of defense in recent weeks. This interview is a marked return to his highly
critical attitude towards the Russian command. In the Avdiivka sector, the Russian
assault has largely stalled. DPR units achieved some success near
Novoselivka and Novokalynove, but by and large, Ukrainian forces have halted the Russian advance.
In this period, several notable developments occurred on the Kherson front. For months, this
front was stable and expected to remain like this due to the river Dnipro, a significant
natural barrier for any offensive operations. This front has also been overlooked in
terms of the potential axis of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. On April 20, Russian telegram
channels and military bloggers started complaining of increased presence and established positions
of Ukrainian forces on the left bank of Dnipro. The original Telegram post, which sparked
discussion about the situation along Dnipro, stated that Ukrainian forces had created
a foothold on the left bank of Dnipro, near the Antonovsky bridge. The blogger claimed
that Ukrainians have been able to regularly supply their forces on the left bank via military boats.
He criticized the Russian command for excessive bureaucracy, which prevented the Russian artillery
on the left bank from striking the Ukrainian forces before they changed their position
or disappear. Later other Russian military bloggers chimed in with claims that Ukraine has
taken control over several Dnipro delta islands. The spokesperson of the Ukrainian army Natalia
Humeniuk tried to temper the excitement regarding this development, stating that crossing such
a wide river like Dnipro is very difficult. She urged everyone to remain patient and to let
the Ukrainian forces do their job in silence. Many military commentators agree that the
established Ukrainian presence in the dachy area north of Oleshky is not a precursor of massive
events to happen on the left bank of Dnipro. It is a swampy area, which is not a good starting point
for an offensive. Ukrainians are still unable to bring tanks and armored vehicles to the left bank.
The Dachy area has almost no road network, which is another problem, if Ukraine is indeed planning
to use this area as a staging point for an attack. So, at this point, Ukraine does not have a
usable bridgehead on the left bank of Dnipro. Still, high activity and presence of
Ukrainian special forces in the Dnipro delta and on the left bank do an essential
job of fixing Russian troops along the river. In this period, Russia somewhat increased its
intensity of strikes on Ukraine. On April 19, 12 Shahed drones were launched on Odesa. Ten of
them were shot down by the Ukrainian air defense. On April 21, for the first time in almost a
month Kyiv was targeted by Iranian drones. Russia launched 23 cruise missiles and 2 drones on
Ukraine, and according to the Ukrainian command, they managed to shoot down 21 cruise missiles
and 2 drones, which is a good result. The notable nuance of this strike was that,
according to some reports, Iranian Dehlavieh warheads were used in this attack, the delivery
of which to Russia has not been reported yet. The most deadly Russian strike in this period was
registered on April 28, with at least 23 civilians dying in Uman, when 2 cruise missiles hit a
residential building. Ukraine retaliated with its own attacks on Crimea. On April 24 and 29,
they attacked the Russian Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol with naval drones and Mugin-5 UAVs
According to official information from Russia, in this period, Putin visited the occupied area of
Kherson oblast and Luhansk. Officially, the visit took place on April 17, but Putin’s statements
from the trip, which were later deleted from the footage, demonstrate that the visit probably
happened earlier. It is Putin’s second trip to the occupied lands of Ukraine since the start
of the full-scale invasion, which may indicate that he is sensitive to criticism of the Russian
public regarding his lack of visible presence as a wartime leader, especially in comparison with
Zelensky, who regularly visits the frontlines. As usual, Prigozhin and Wagner had Russia's most
active media presence in this period. On April 17, two former Wagner members talked to the media
about atrocities committed by them and other Wagner fighters. One of the interviewed fighters
claimed that Prigozhin ordered his unit to kill children during the battle of Soledar. This
interview once again demonstrates that Wagner PMC does not have any regard for the lives
of civilians and non-combatants. Wagner and regular Russian army units are likely still
conducting war crimes as they did in Bucha, Izium and other areas of Ukraine, which
had been under Russian occupation. Along with Prigozhin’s interview about the
upcoming demise of Wagner and shell hunger, which we talked about earlier, the oligarch once again
called the Kremlin to focus on the defensive war. Prigozhin said on April 21 that Russia has to dig
in in occupied areas and brace for the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Prigozhin claims that Russia
would have to defeat the Ukrainian attack and gain some time to restore its military power to
continue fighting. Prigozhin is by no means a dove in the Russian elite, but the fact that he
called on setting more realistic goals at this point in the war, i.e. defending rather than
attacking for the second time in April, may indicate the current state of the Russian army.
Another incident, which has soured the Russian mood, is the accidental release of a
bomb by a Su-34 flying over Belgorod. The cause of this incident, which has left a
20-meter deep crater in the center of Belgorod, is unclear, but some have speculated on social
media that this Su-34 was on route to launching an airstrike on Ukraine. Russia is also taking
further steps to solidify its control over the occupied Ukrainian territories. According to
Putin’s April 27 decree, Ukrainians who refuse to accept Russian citizenship in the occupied
territories, will now be considered “foreigners”. “Foreigners”, who support, to quote, “extremism
and terrorism” will be subject to deportation. The most notable diplomatic development from
the Russian perspective in this period was the meeting of the Chinese defense minister Li Shangfu
with Putin on April 16. Again, parties exchanged niceties and praised the military partnership
between them, but China did not indicate in any way that they are any closer to supplying weapons
to Russia. But China probably made Russia somewhat happy in this period, when the Chinese ambassador
to France questioned the sovereignty of all former USSR republics. He claimed that since the status
of former Soviet Republics has not been confirmed by any international agreement, they don’t have an
effective status in international law. This claim is simply factually wrong. The ambassador also
questioned Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea, as “Crimea belonged to Russia from the beginning.
It was Khrushchev who gifted Crimea to Ukraine in Soviet times”. Apparently this Chinese ambassador
thinks that the beginning of history is the year 1783. These statements were angrily rebutted
by officials of Ukraine and Baltic states, prompting the Chinese Foreign Ministry to assure
everyone that China’s position regarding Crimea has not changed, while it also reiterated
its respect to the sovereignty of all states. China continued its more active involvement in
the settlement of the war in Ukraine. On April 26, Xi Jinping held a phone call with Zelensky.
There is not much information about this call, but the Chinese side provided general
information about Beijing’s intention to deepen discussions with all parties to
reach a political settlement of the war. Iran remains the chief military
supporter of Russia in this war. On April 24, the Wall Street Journal
reported, based on the accounts of an unnamed Middle Eastern official, that Iran
has transferred over 300k artillery shells and more than 1 million ammunition rounds
over the Caspian Sea throughout 6 months. In his interview, Ukrainian minister of defence,
Reznikov, confirmed that Russia is seeking shells: “We have information that they run around
the market and ask for shells”. Reznikov also added that both Iran and North Korea are
supporting Russia militarily. In this period, one of the Pentagon leaks informed about Russia’s
experimentation with the Tobol electronic warfare system to fight Starlink systems, heavily used
by the Ukrainians. This is an important aspect of warfare, which often goes unseen, but another
Pentagon leak talking about the limited success of Ukrainian JDAMs due to Russian electronic
warfare systems indicates an impact they may have on the battlefield. To conclude the topic
of internal developments in Russia with an impact on the war in Ukraine, we should inform you
about the decision of the Russian government to stop publishing data and gas output. This is
probably linked to the dropping energy revenues of Russia. The Kremlin likely wants to avoid
this being discussed by the Russian public. While Russia is wrapping up its offensive
operations and is trying to complete the capture of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian army is
getting ready for its counter-offensive. We have recently released another video about the
highly anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive, the link is in the description, so we are not
going to dive deep into this topic here. But let’s highlight the most notable statements
of Ukrainian officials on this matter. On April 17, the Secretary of the Ukrainian
security council Danilov assured that Ukraine is not going to launch its assault without being
thoroughly prepared. He probably implies that Ukraine has been delaying the operation due
to hold-ups in delivery of Western supplies, while also voiced his dissatisfaction with
this situation, saying that officials of allied countries sometimes “say one thing and
do completely the opposite”. The spokesperson of the Ukrainian army, Hanna Maliar, stated on
April 19 that Ukrainians are already conducting counter-offensive actions. This is probably
a rhetorical statement, which nevertheless may inform about preparatory actions carried
out by the Ukrainian forces to improve their launching positions or to collect information
about defensive positions of the Russian army. Some Ukrainian officials are generally hyping
up the counter-offensive, while others call to temper expectations. The chief of the Ukrainian
military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov stated they are approaching an important battle in the
modern history of Ukraine. Being his usual optimistic self, Budanov claimed that reaching the
border of the country in 2023 is a realistic goal. Zelensky also conveyed an optimistic
message regarding the counter-offensive stating that he believes in the future of the
counter-offensive and in the liberation of Crimea. On the contrary, Reznikov and Kuleba have been
cautious in their statements. Reznikov agreed that expectations from the counter-offensive
are overheated, while Kuleba reiterated his earlier statement advising against calling the
upcoming Ukrainian operation, the decisive battle. Ukraine’s allies continued making pledges
and delivering on their promises of military assistance in this period. On April 16, the
Italian media reported that Italy donated up to 60 M109L self-propelled howitzers. On
April 17, the Slovakian defense minister announced that they have transferred
all promised 13 MiG-29 jets to Ukraine. While the delivery of Soviet-made jets is good
news for Ukraine, they are still fighting for the delivery of much more advanced Western jets like
the F-16. On April 17, the US deputy secretary of Defense Colin Kahl commented discouragingly on
this topic, saying, "In the case of a positive decision, it will take 1.5 years for the
delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine". 1.5 years is not the time that Ukraine has at this
point, and they will likely have to be content with Soviet-made fighter jets. On April 18, it
was revealed that Patriot air defense system and the second IRIS T system promised by Germany had
been delivered to Ukraine. The main topic of the Ramstein meeting on April 21 was air defense too.
It looks that the West is prioritizing supply of air defense systems as a sensible substitute for
supply of Western-made jets. While Western-made fighter jets would go a long way to ensure
Ukraine’s increased air presence, for now the West is focusing on helping Ukraine to deal
with Russian missile and drone attacks, which is important particularly against the background of
the Pentagon leak claiming that Ukraine is running out of air defense missiles, along with preventing
the Russian air force from having air superiority. The main outcomes of this Ramstein meeting was
the pledge of Germany and the Netherlands to supply minesweepers and transportation vehicles;
the conduct of training of Ukrainian servicemen for Abrams tanks and Western air defense
systems; creation of the maintenance center for Leopard 2 in Poland and promises by allies
to support Ukraine for as long as necessary. In Ramstein the NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg
also made an encouraging statement for Ukraine, saying that all NATO allies agree that Ukraine
has to become a member of the alliance. Along with that, during the meeting, it was
reported that Western allies have already delivered more than 230 tanks and 1500 other
armored vehicles for 9 Ukrainian brigades, which will presumably fight in the
counter-offensive. On this day, Latvia also pledged to deliver all of its remaining
man-portable air-defense systems to Ukraine, while Canada promised to purchase 26 million
dollars worth of fuel to deliver to Ukraine. On April 19, Ukraine received two pieces of good
news. First, the United States promised another military aid package worth 325 million dollars,
including HIMARS munitions and artillery shells. Along with that, South Korean President Yoon
Suk-yeol declared that if Russia continues to conduct large-scale attacks on Ukrainian
civilians, Korea would revise its long-term policy of not selling weapons to countries
at war and send military aid to Ukraine. This was followed by yet another threatening
message by former Russian president Medvedev. On April 20, Denmark and the Netherlands made
a joint announcement on the delivery of 14 Leopard2 tanks to Ukraine. On April 26, it was
reported that Slovenia had unofficially given 20 Valuk armored vehicles. On the same day, the
commander of the United States European Command, Cristopher Cavoli, stated that Ukraine had
already received 98% of promised vehicles. NATO chief Stoltenberg reiterated this message
stating that NATO has delivered 98% of promised vehicles and has armed more than 9 Ukrainian
brigades, along with training them. We are covering the Pentagon leaks in another video, but
let’s wrap up the section about military support to Ukraine by developing the earlier report about
Egypt’s intention to sell weapons to Russia. A leaked document claims that following talks with
US officials, Egypt agreed to produce artillery shells for Ukraine instead of helping Russia.
Ukraine suffered a painful diplomatic setback with its European allies in this period. On April
16, Poland and Hungary banned grain imports from Ukraine, hurting the local producers. Later
Romania, Slovakia and Bulgaria also joined this ban, which the EU strongly condemned. But it
looks like the sides have reached a compromise. It has been reported that the EU has offered these
countries to maintain the ban of only 4 types of grain from Ukraine, while lifting all other
measures and offering aid to affected farmers. The optics of this situation are not good at all,
neither for Ukraine nor its European allies. They have to find a way to avoid such conflicts
and reach agreements before issues get blown out of proportion, if they intend to continue
demonstrating a united front against Russia. We have reached yet another stalemate point
in this war. Russia has attacked and attacked since December 2022, but it looks like they don’t
have any more offensive resources to make gains anywhere, but Bakhmut in the foreseeable future.
Very soon the Russian army would have to enter the stage of operational pause, at the time when
Ukraine is going to strike. For now, what is left for us is to count losses suffered by Russia
and Ukraine. There have been no credible reports of manpower losses in this period. According to
the Oryx blog, the visually confirmed losses of Russia as of May 1 are 1925 tanks, 3989 vehicles,
239 command posts and communication stations, 686 artillery systems and vehicles, 194 multiple
rocket launchers, 80 aircraft, 84 helicopters, and 219 drones. For Ukraine, these are 493
tanks, 1431 vehicles, 12 command posts and communication stations, 285 artillery systems
and vehicles, 45 multiple rocket launchers, 66 aircraft, 29 helicopters, and 105 drones.
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