Sir John Major questioned by Oxford students

[Applause] [Music] foreign for those fascinating uh opening remarks um one thing that struck me throughout was from uh almost explicitly quoting for the many not the few uh to your comments on brexit I was wondering when you look at the Contemporary conservative party do you find it familiar do you think it resembles that which you led or do you feel like a stranger in your own path I'm glad you start with an easy question yes I'm very grateful to you for doing that things change things move on and the conservative party began to become more ideological I think in the 1980s and what happened in the 1980s and in the 1992 election is that the members of parliament who had either served in the war or who had lived and understood the immediate post-war years and that determination that never again would we be split away from our European Neighbors retired from Parliament and a new and younger generation who hadn't had those experiences came in and it was a more ideological intake so it has evolved since then parliament's always changed there's nothing especially novel about that so it has changed from the period where the conservative party was much more consensual than it has subsequently become it has changed and do you feel disconnected from it well it's difficult to be disconnected for something you joined in 1959 I've been there quite a long time um so I don't feel disconnected from it no it still has the same basic underlying principles but it just places them I think in a different order of priority at the moment politics is like a stream it will it will carry on and it will change and it will change back again so so no I I don't feel disconnected from my party I think it has changed many of the things that it gives priority to would not have been my priorities things change they may change again I'm sure that they will one of the things you attributed to being the cause of the breakdown in politics recent years was the ability of Fringe ideologue to take control of mainstream parties there's always been influential ideologues from our ex-president Tony Bend people like Enoch Powell or Keith Joseph in the conservative party why do you think that nowadays the ideologues are able to get more power and influence in the parties than they were in the past there are more of them it's as simple as that I mean in the period that I was in Parliament of course we had a right wing at one stage we had the Empire Loyalists and we had a whole range of of different groups that formed but two two things have changed one they knew that they were a minority and they expressed their views to keep the flame of their ideals alive but they didn't actually press it in the way that happens these days now now that there are more people in Parliament who have non-mainstream views so I think that that is what has changed there's been a slight change in culture and there's been a change in the number of people who are actually in Parliament who have who have those different views what I think lies at the core of this um is the change in the constituency parties over the past 40 or 50 years 40 of 50 years ago when I first joined the young conservatives there were a million members it was the greatest and most successful marriage bureau of the world has probably ever seen but there were huge numbers of people in the young consultants and the conservative party was a really Mass membership party there were far fewer distractions in the 1950s and 60s than there are today that people can do and the same thing has happened to the other parties as well so the constituency parties have hollowed out now who has left the people who have left are those who are least political but used to Ally themselves to either labor or the conservatives or the liberal parties that they have left and the people who have remained are the people who are most convinced of the philosophy of those parties so that instinctively makes them a little more ideological and it is they who pick candidates for the next Parliament it's not just a problem for the conservative party it exists right the way across politics and um I I don't see a day in which the political parties are going to be mass movements in the way that they were in the post-war years I think that is extremely unlikely what is important is to make sure that increasingly we seek a proper mixture of people in Parliament and that we try and persuade some of the most able people that it is career that is worthwhile there are many people who turn away from politics these days because they don't like the way it's conducted because it doesn't pay very well if one takes a mercenary View because they don't want the harassment that one actually gets from social media and elsewhere there are a whole range of good reasons why not to be in politics but if all the most able people were to turn away from politics it would certainly diminish the quality of government successively the more that happened so one one does need a fair proportion of the best people to take an interest in it because it does involve running our country taking it then a level above the constituency party to party leadership you're one of the last leaders of the conservative party to be selected purely by the Parliamentary conservative party before the reforms in the 2000s which made the leadership determined by a ballot of the members do you think that particularly given the events of the last 12 months this leads to that level of ideological takeover and would you think it would be a positive step for the conservative party and perhaps other parties to go back to a system where the Parliamentary parties have more control over the leadership reflection that's a splendidly double-edged question I think it's quite difficult to go back I mean the truth of the matter is the when the mass party votes for the leader of the labor or conservative party they don't know the person they are voting for they know what they read about the person they are voting for they see the prospective candidates through the filter of the media and through the filter of social media but they don't know them they haven't sat with them they haven't talked with them they don't know what their strengths and weaknesses are they don't know how How firm they would be in times of Crisis how compassionate they would be in times of difficulty so I I have always thought the wisest way is for the choice to be made by the people who know them best that is their parliamentary colleagues but that isn't the most democratic way you can quite see why members of the party in the country who pay their subscription who knock on doors who do the work say but hang on you rely on me to get you elected why shouldn't I have a party of electing you as a party leader so it's I can quite see how we have moved to a mass party choice but I do think it has disadvantages as well as advantages but you wouldn't seek or advise the chairman of the 1922 committee or chairman of the conservative party to look at leadership alternative leadership believe you me if I were to advise them to do that they certainly wouldn't take any notice so moving on then to Europe brexit The Windsor framework um in a few months time the country will celebrate the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Good Friday agreement something that you spent a long time working on in your tenure may I first start with a personal question does it annoy you or did it annoy you that the Good Friday agreement was signed less than a year or just about a year after you left office and Tony Blair was able to take a lot of the credit for it despite it being years and years of your work um you won't believe this answer but I'll give I'll give it to anyway the answer is no I didn't um we were we thought a long way towards an agreement in 1996. but we've also a long way behind in the opinion polls and it became perfectly clear that the IRA thought they would get a better deal from any party other than the conservatives they remembered the the Bobby Sands affair they remembered all sorts of difficulties have been over recent years and they they simply would prefer to have signed the agreement with someone other than us so I was perfectly well aware of that when Albert Reynolds and I started on this in the early 90s we both realized that it may not be concluded in our premierships or in Albert's case very sadly in his life so my principal thought afterwards I should say this when I first began the Northern Ireland process I talked privately to John Smith who was then the leader of the labor party and we sat in my room sipping whiskey one evening after a debate and I told John exactly what we were planning to do and the privy Council terms and in those days they were invariably honored um and I can see him now picking up his glass of whiskey swelling it around taking a large twig and saying right Northern Ireland well there are no votes in it we'll support you all the way and he did and so did Tony Bear the labor party were absolutely Honorable in the way they supported that and when Tony went ahead my principal thought was was pleasure that he had taken it so seriously and that he reached an agreement and to be absolutely fair to Tony he has never hesitated to indicate the role that was played by his predecessors so my principal concern was pleasure that it had happened and if you had seen the way Ireland lived in those days the fear that existed on the streets the news bulletins that began routinely a soldier was killed there was an explosion and all that ended a Northern Ireland is a wholly different place than the one it was and the relationship between the North and the South of Ireland wholly better than it was the UK's relationship with southern Ireland the Republic infinitely better than at any time in history it has been there's a short blip a couple of years ago for reasons I don't immediately recollect but it is on balance much better so the whole relationship has changed and that uh that's something I'm very pleased about do you think that the Windsor framework fixes the many or of the problems caused by the back Northern backstop well the the um the the previous protocol was very poorly designed I think there were always Tony Blair and I went together during the referendum to Northern Ireland to warn of the dangers of uh leaving the European Union precisely because of the problems it would create with Northern Ireland and the difference between North and South also being the border of the European Union and we were told by the then leader of the dup and the Len Northern Ireland secretary that we didn't know very much about Ireland between us and they proceeded um I I think things have changed so much I think the protocol was badly negotiated the first one I think what has been done this time is much more detailed much more effective it still has some problems there are still some problems with it I mean one conceivable problem with the Northern Ireland um The Good Friday agreement is that it requires agreement from both the major parties before the assembly can sit and that is a Lacuna I think that is something you might want to look at in due course but I think it was an excellent negotiation The Good Friday agreement and I'm full of praise for the way it was done in terms of the barriers to now the the framework going through um again it's that ideological wing of the party that you're referring to in a certain blonde ex-president of ours um do you think that that will be a barrier to the framework passing or do you think it'll be more of a challenge to Rishi sunax party leadership and the unity of the conservative party I I I'm no longer in Parliament as I'm as preface my answer with that and so I don't know all the members of parliament in the way I once did so I can't be absolutely certain but I would be surprised if it didn't go through if the Prime Minister puts it before Parliament he will have the support of most of the conservative party perhaps overwhelmingly the support of the conservative party and I think almost without exception and the support of the labor and liberal parties as well so yes I think it will go through and I think it should you say then you're not in Parliament this leads me on to a question I wanted to ask which is that after you step down from the house Commons in 2001 you turned down then customary peerage that um Prime Ministers were offered um why did you do so and do you regret it now no no I don't regret it absolutely not I mean I'd spent a long time in Parliament and before that involved in politics to the extent it wholly dominated my life really and I thought I'd finish with politics I didn't see at any point in going to the House of Lords and I didn't think it was proper to take a title go to the House of Lords and not do the work so I had no hesitation in not accepting the offer of a peerage I have never regretted it I'm not in the House of Lords I don't intend to go to the House of Lords I'm much respectable that the Lords do but my uh active party political day is our finish so why do you think then that some of those is sat in very prominent positions around your cabinet table like Lord hustleton or Lord Clark have chosen to do so well you must ask them um I mean in in terms of Ken Clark can eat sleeps and drinks politics I mean politics are the oxygen of life to Ken well that and Jazz and cigars and cigars and eating and the occasional drink are absolutely the component parts of Ken's life so so I'm unsurprised and Michael is an instinctive politician at the end of his fingertips and far beyond as you probably saw here I think only a fortnight or so ago so they they have different priorities it just wasn't for me and speaking of the House of Lords one of your successors Gordon Brown has seemed to make his post Prime ministerial career or project I suppose constitutional form particularly aimed at the House of Lords do you think the significant House of Lords reform is needed if so do you back Gordon Brown's proposals for a chamber of the regions and Nations no I don't I mean Gordon is very clever and he's produced a very skillful uh very skillful suggestion but I think there are several things about the household yes it needs reforms it is ludicrous that the House of Lords is the second largest assembly in the world other than the Chinese conference that's rather stupid there are 900 members of the House of Lords theoretically if they if they all turn up there aren't enough seats for them all they'd be queuing outside um so obviously that needs changing and so do some of the rules by which the House of Commons works one suggestion is that we should elect the House of Lords because it's democratic I have heard of many stupid suggestions in the world but that is pretty much at the top of the House of Lords is not an initiating chamber the House of Lords is a revising chamber it doesn't necessarily need politicians in it particularly hack politicians were sent there to vote for the government or the opposition it needs people who have experience of Life who can revise serious bits of policy to make sure that the legislation eventually passed is the best legislation we can properly frame it's a totally different proposition from the House of Commons and if you produced an all-elected House of Lords which many people without thinking I suspect actually favor you would get a second-rate version of the House of Commons I have always taken The View with it if the answer to any question is more politicians it's the wrong question so no I don't favor election so the reforms I would make would be or perhaps to some of the ways they're nominated perhaps some of the ways they are approved certainly to some of the ways it works but I would not change it into an elected chamber and I would halve its size 900 is ludicrous 4 to 500 would be ample speaking more than about the general culture politics you said that obviously the conservative parties changed a lot in the last 20 25 years one of the big changes or reversals I suppose when you're talking about politics being a stream in post-war British politics is that from the period of 1964 to 1997 every single British prime minister had been State educated and yet from 1997 to the present day we've had two atonians um Rishi study Blair who attended private schools do you think that social mobility and politics has gone downhill in the last 25 years and you think of someone who left school at 15 now you'd have the same ability to progress in politics as you did well if you progress in politics you need an extraordinary amount of luck wherever you come from whether you come from a privileged background or a pretty ordinary background um I think politics Used to Be The Preserve of people from a fairly narrow from a fairly narrow part of our national constituency it's a good deal widen now and I think that is that is welcome so it seems to be not to matter too much whether one went to Public Schools or or state schools what matters is whether you have the ability to do the job and whether also for this matters whether you think the person chosen as prime minister can actually empathize with the difficulties the country is facing because we have faced huge difficulties when people are in difficulty if somebody can understand the difficulty understand what they're facing and what they're going through they are more able to be able to do something to help and I think that is an important part of politics so I I welcome the fact that people from far more diverse backgrounds now get both into Parliament this might be cheeky of me but I assume from that comment that you don't believe all your successes have had that ability to empathize with the problems people are facing you might say that I couldn't possibly comment um I'll ask one or two questions about foreign policy and we'll open up a few questions from the audience I was interested about what you were saying about um again to to quote a phrase I don't normally like quoting Global Britain and Britain accepting its place as a leading major power but accepting that it's not a superpower um I remember um listening to a recording of you speaking I think it was at the hay Festival a couple years ago about the withdrawal from Afghanistan uh and you were decrying it as being Britain you know firmly um abdicating her responsibilities to the people of Afghanistan and Britain's role in the world stage do you think that Britain should play an active and interventionist role in promoting democracy and liberal British values across the world or do you think that all of that stuff needs to go along with the idea that we are Global Britain the superpower now I don't think that at all um I think we certainly have a role in promoting democracy I mean a great deal of the world's democracy is actually a variant of what we introduced first in this country and I think we do have a moral obligation to continue to pay a role in that I mean I referred to the fact that we were scattered from Afghanistan large lady at the insistence of the United States it wasn't practical to say if they were going and they were going um but look what has happened there's been this vast increase in in in in migrancy a great deal of it is from people fleeing from the rigid nature of the Taliban in Afghanistan Afghanistan and Syria two of the Nations that are providing the largest number of these uh additional migrants and you can see how desperate they are if they're going to risk their lives and that of their families in these perilous dinghies going firstly across either the channel or the Mediterranean or both you can understand the desperation they feel and if you look at where around the world the whole world is is in a migratory mold at the moment but where are they mostly coming from that they're coming from Afghanistan they're coming from the Congo they're coming from Albania they're coming from a whole range of coming from Syria they're coming from countries where the public the people are jealous of the freedoms and opportunities that they see in other countries and because these people may be poorly educated and because these people maybe have very little it doesn't mean they care less about the future of their children and their lives than we do here in this room who would object to anybody in this room doing something to better the position of their family we would applaud it what do you think these migrants are doing they're trying to better the condition of their family and part of the reason there are so many is because the conditions in their countries are so dire and in some cases in the case of Afghanistan we moved away from a position where things were getting better and the Taliban returned and made them immensely worse it's now impossible for girls to go to university and for girls to get into education again that's 15th century not 21st century so there is a responsibility on the Richer and more powerful nations of the world to consider what the secondary effects and the the the third set of effects are on the policies they follow and we have one real problem with this forgive me if I go on about this remember but I think it is relevant in 1946 at the San Francisco Opera House um The Victors of the war and others signed the United Nations Charter and set it in being and they set up the permanent five in the the permanent five security members of the United Nations Russia China the United States France and the UK they were arguably the most powerful nations in the world in 1946 they are not now consider Germany consider Brazil or consider South Africa consider Japan and at the moment each one of those permanent five has a veto on policy United Nations can do nothing in Ukraine officially because Russia can veto any action they wish to take now that is absurd in a body that was actually set up primarily in an attempt to stop the world going to war it needs reforming but which of the permanent five nations is going to give up its secure and happy position as one of the permanent members and suggests that the permanent membership should be increased I think it should be increased I think there should be two reforms it should be increased so that the permanent members are perhaps 10 10 to 11 members embracing the countries I've just mentioned like Brazil and others and the one nation veto should go if there has to be a veto let it be three nations so that the United Nations is not hamstrung from doing so many of the things that it was actually set up to do now if you look around the world where is the Statesman big enough and powerful enough to bring the world together and force that change through I don't immediately see him or her now it happened at the end of the war because the world had gone through such a cataclysm people were prepared to make really significant changes in the way in which the world operated and that of course also applied to the establishment of the European Union starting off as the iron at Kohl's Steel Community in the 50s and we need to look almost all of the immediate post-war architecture is out of date in one form or another whether it's the World Health Organization the World Bank or whatever it may be but sadly it is difficult to see how we get out of the rut in which they need reform but nobody can Institute reform or agree upon what the full reform should be it would be a better world if we could but ultimately to talk about the issue of the week you mentioned migrants refugees Asylum Seekers Etc um the government's new Asylum bill seems to rely on this portrayal of the Home Secretary and the Prime Minister have been peddling both in the Commons and in interviews and in statements that Asylum Seekers seem to oppose this existential threat to um the fabric of this country or to the quality of the lives of britons do you agree with this betrayal and do you support the government's outlined Asylum plans this is very complex because let's draw a distinction between Asylum and and other people who don't come through the Asylum system there are two ways reasons why people don't come through the Asylum system firstly the Asylum system is very inadequate a lot of people don't actually have a practical opportunity of getting onto it and secondly there are lots of people who seek to come here who don't who aren't General genuine Asylum Seekers so there are those that there are those two two strands um sheer practicality says we cannot take everybody in our small island who wishes to come that is a very difficult problem and we can't we can't possibly do it and neither can Europe Europe accepted over a million people um over a very short period of time collectively but the demand now is absolutely astronomical in it I think these are real International effort to deal with it um but when people run Asylum together with other people what is really causing the trouble is the people who are coming in the rubber boats they are less than one-tenth of the people who actually migrate to this country we need to actually look at the figures more carefully and the whole things are sort of bled together as though it was a single problem it's not there are a whole series of different component parts to this problem I don't have an easy solution to it some of the solutions that have been proposed are not the solutions I would have proposed I put it as mildly as that but there is a problem and we need to try and deal with it now it doesn't need to be dealt with collectively the prime minister is meeting the president of France on Friday and that's very important because we need a collective action with the European nations that we once had when we were members of Europe and now don't we need to reconstitute that we need to be able to work collectively so that a fair burden is shared between countries across Europe we also need to look more widely and see whether there are things that we can do that can stem the desire of people wishing to move in the first place by a utilization collectively of of overseas aid and other special areas of that sort you can see that people feel they're falling behind in these countries and in many cases they're frightened by the nature of governments they have but also frightened at what their prospects are and all of those different components of the problem may need a different solution so it's much more complex than what is actually done about the admittedly illegal but positively justifiable claims for uh asylum in this country from many of the people who who come in unconventional ways final question from being a bit more of a light-hearted one you've spoken at length about your dissatisfaction about the portrayal of the royal family and your relationship with Prince Charles in the lazy season of the crown what are your general thoughts on their portrayal of you you think it's fair do you think it's amusing do you think it's accurate um I didn't see it you haven't seen it no I didn't watch it so you can tell me you'll know better than that anyway anyone here who saw the crown all the way through right so what happened to studying then now I can I can genuinely and honestly say I didn't watch the crown that there's a great episode with you at the Gillies ball at Balmoral uh talking to Diana so watch it just for that bit it's quite amusing um well I I can tell you absolutely I never went to the gili's board hi um right with that I was never in Balmoral at the time was held and if I had been I would have avoided it like the plague um we'll open up some questions in the audience if you have a question please raise your hand or membership card or go to the person right at the back there because you were very quick yeah yeah you who's looking around yeah thank you you've talked briefly about public policy domestic policy and the sensible domestic policy with the benefit of hindsight do you think the privatization of Railways was a sensible domestic policy I had that question written down so thank you for asking it I I suggest there may be in collaboration here um I don't know forgive me from saying this but I doubt you're old enough to remember the nationalized railways and the reason for privatizing the railways the reason essentially for privatizing the railways was that there was no investment going into them and there has been the most extraordinary investment in the private sector what I think has gone wrong is two things we were originally intending to privatize them with rail part of the privatization on a regional basis and we persuaded by experts so that would be a bad idea because the investment wouldn't actually go into the rail it would all go into the Rolling Stock and that would be dangerous and I think actually the split of rail away from the main part of the privatization in retrospect I think that was a mistake the other thing I think that has been happened of course what we originally did was changed quite considerably by the incoming government in the late 1990s who deposes the privatization and I think you might equally direct that question to John Prescott as well as to me and I would be extremely interested to hear what he has to say about it so I don't see how any British government is going to be able to afford the investment that British Rail needs whether you can change and improve the management whether you can change and improve the structure I've no doubt now with the experience that we can but I don't think taking it back into into public ownership unless you're prepared to see your taxes rise quite substantially just for that single issue is a practical proposition next question please uh we'll go to the member over here so I'm making a lot of walking thinly um yeah thank you um so I'd say that back on Northern Ireland a little bit um I'd say that there's quite a strong feeling in Northern Ireland that it's been sorry it's got to get a little muzzled I can't quite hear it can you is this better yep um I'd say that there is a bit of a feeling in Northern Ireland that the country is being used a little bit as a pawn when it comes to kind of the hard line brexiteers and that that might have somewhat shifted now with Richie sunac however do you think that he was going to be able to kind of suppress that part of the party still or do you think that that might have um like a stronger impact now on the Windsor framework now that's going to be negotiated upon he's about I I don't know the present prime minister well he is younger than my son um so so the soda is quite a gap let me just put it that way um but he is a serious politician I do know that he spends his time looking at the minutiae of policy so I I think he realizes the difficulties of Northern Ireland I think he will legislate not for the headlines but for the reality of what is right for the people of Northern Ireland I believe that will be the case and we will have to wait and see but I think his negotiation of the revised protocol was very skillfully done and I find that very encouraging I mean there is a lot to be done in Northern Ireland one problem with Northern Ireland is that the assembly hasn't been sitting for every year now that's absolutely crazy people think of Northern Ireland and they think can it preserve peace what about the political difficulties is there going to be United Ireland and all this stuff meanwhile there are serious problems in the education system in the health system in the degree of investment in in private business all of which need this need the assembly to be sitting and while the assembly is not sitting those problems are not getting solved because the the government of Westminster had evolved effectively running Northern Ireland as a civil service but they can't initiate new policy they can only run things as they were with the money that was voted to them so policy in Northern Ireland is standing still at a time and there's a great deal to be done we must get the assembly back next question uh we'll go to the member here on the blue shirt on the front row thank you I was wondering you've talked a lot about could you get it yeah sorry you've talked all about the effects of brexit on Northern Ireland but I wonder what you think the effect will be on Scotland whether you think Scotland will get independence and whether you think perhaps the resignation of Nicholas surgeon is the bailout for the union that it desperately needed now I think her successor will continue to to continue to try and get independence indeed if they weren't prepared to do that they wouldn't get elected as a leader of the Scottish national party so I they will certainly continue whether they will continue in quite the same way I don't know um Nicholas surgeon served for eight years as leader take it from me the one thing the Americans have got absolutely right in her Constitution is that the president serves only for eight years or whenever you have prime minister serving for longer troubles occur and and and and and I think she was probably quite wise to resign after eight years after doing from her perspective um a pretty successful job now um do I think Scotland will become independent well um there are two answers to that as there so often are in politics the first one is if there isn't a majority for uh Independence now after the last three years in the UK I wonder what set of circumstances could possibly provide one that's my first intermediate thought a more serious thought is it does actually depend upon the views of the Next Generation and the Next Generation seem much more inclined perhaps a real experience in some ways to to want an independent Scotland and uh and and so the problem isn't going to go away now I I don't think successive governments I'm not just talking of this government I don't think successor governments for quite a long time have have handled the independence questions perhaps as wisely as they could um when Westminster Westminster has powers but if it keeps legislating to determine what happens in Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland without consulting the first ministers for example without examining with them what it might mean in in their domains you're bound to create an antipathy to Westminster I mean I would like to see the Prime Minister perhaps set up a visible group of himself and the first ministers in Scotland Northern Ireland and and Wales who would meet regularly to discuss the policy that was being passed and what its implications in those territories would be it seems to be that would be a very sensible thing for them to do if we're going to kill the desire to become independent and I think if if they did become independent they I think Scotland would be my view is Scotland would be damaged and so would the rest of the UK by losing Scotland if we're going to stop that we have to re-enthuse people with the merits the virtues of actually working together and that means removing the things that are such Red Racks to them at the moment and that can easily be done so I I think at the moment the risk of independence of Scotland and for that matter Northern Ireland which is a different case is still very clear I think it is possible to ease that away and I think with why is policy certainly in the case of Scotland you may be able to do so the position of Northern Ireland may be different because [Music] although not every Catholic in Northern Ireland is a nationalist increasingly the Catholic population will be larger than the Protestant population so they pretty nearly are a majority in terms of voting at the moment they just were at the last election and certainly in five years time they will be so if somebody Unity amongst the Catholic population for a United Island they would win a border poll if they had one so again we need to encourage people in Northern Ireland to realize there are benefits in being part of a four Nation Union so it's a big constitutional question and it's one that can't just be considered when there's a problem and then pushed aside and left it does need a continuing consideration with those countries about how we remove all the sore spots that cause so much antipathy at the present moment I'm convinced it can be done I'm convinced it's in the interests of the United Kingdom as a whole to do it and I very much hope it will be done regarding your eight years comments John can you remind us how long your predecessor and success are served for no it slipped my memory time for one more question so please raise your hands we'll go to the member in the blue and white over here um you've spoken about how labor are the clear favorites to win the next election um and you you look at the polls on the single issues that the conservative Supply neighbor on the economy immigration enhs you name it and apart from hoping that something will turn up to change their fortunes and relying on um cold Comforts that they believe that kirst armor is a particularly popular or embraced uh what do you think the party you used to lead can and should do to turn their fortunes around well history is really what I have in mind on the day I became prime minister in 1990 we were in an almost identical position we were well over 20 behind in the opinion polls so a maximum of 20 months to go before the election labor were absolutely odds on favor to win and yet we won the election so I rely on the fact that it has happened before and uh whether it will happen next time and is out of my hands I'm merely these days an observer but since it has happened before I do believe it can happen again and it was upon that that I based my comments that nothing is certain in politics I mean some of the policies of labor party well the labor party very wisely haven't produced many policies um there are two that spring to mind they've decided they will remove um the the charitable status of private schools which means private schools would have to pay that now many of you may have gone to private schools and have had one of your two parents working just to pay the fees to send you to those schools in many cases um they're not going to be very pleased at that there must be hundreds of thousands of votes that would scurried straight back to the conservative party because of that particular policy and the only other policy I'm absolutely aware of though I think labor are about to produce policies um but the only other one is is the probable abolition of the House of Lords which will not win a single vote anywhere indeed since Lords would then be having would then be given the right to vote it might even lose some in future elections so I think there are a range of things to be considered the the polls and by-elections are always a different proposition from actually considering who might win the next election and you may be right it could be that the labor party will win it handsomely looking at today's opinion polls you would certainly think so I I merely look back at history and say it doesn't always pan out as you think before we thanks John for his time and his wise words um in recognition of Decades of service to free speech public discourse and generally the cause of uh political engagement among students and education the trustees and standing committee of Oxford Union have voted to elect Sir John Major as an honorary member of the society so please join me in congratulations [Applause] [Applause] [Music] foreign [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Music]

Channel: OxfordUnion

Views: 122,466

Keywords:

Id: nutpaMhsfKE

Length: 44min 35sec (2675 seconds)

Published: Wed Mar 29 2023