Should Germany buy Gripen or Rafale?

hello everybody it's chris from military aviation history and for a while now i've been making videos about germany's ongoing quest to replace the panavia tornado some of these videos might be familiar to you you might have seen them in the past and the two options that are currently on the table for the german government that are being discussed are the uh super hornet and growler combo jumbo as well as buying more euro fighters preferably also with a new electronic warfare suite now on those videos that i've made sometimes i get comments like well instead of you know the super hornet or the eurofighter or even the f-35 why doesn't germany just buy oh i don't know the rafale or the grypton or or you can insert your favorite plate right here right and i've been looking for a while now for a way of tackling this question and then the last video happened why germany doesn't buy the f-35 and all of you have given me a perfect layup for this because i've got so many good suggestions on that video about what plane germany should consider at the moment in your opinion and there have been really some fantastic suggestions here and this really gives me now a great pool of options to discuss with you now a very kind viewer collected all of the options that were given in the comments section for a period of seven days post launch of the video and he's combined him here in a nice little graph now he went through a couple of thousand comments to get roughly 500 suggestions so thank you very much to him for doing this when i saw uh the the potential here that we could have a discussion on all the options that you have shared i certainly or was very happy to take his data set on board now i think there were really a few good mentions so thank you all for contributing to this because yeah like i said this now gives me the perfect opportunity to discuss this topic with you and really show what sort of awkward spot germany is in at the moment because a lot of the suggestions that you feel bringing to the table well there's good suggestions they're good aircraft but they simply are not what germany really needs or they're simply not a realistic option for germany at the moment and that really shows you how difficult this question is for the german government and the defense ministry in particular so let's look at these options that you've provided first as you can see from this graph there are about 500 suggestions that were given and they are nicely bundled up here i am going to be omitting some of the more courageous entries like the me 262 the bf-109 or the super tokano and i'm also going to be combining some of the options for example the chinese and the russian aircraft into their respective categories into in one go simply because that allows me to tackle them in in one pass essentially okay so now that we have something to work with i'm going to go through this list from the bottom to the top but before i do that it's very important to consider what germany actually needs at this point because if we don't consider what they require out of an aircraft then this list really isn't much health to us now germany as you know needs to replace roughly 40 to 50 panavia tornado ideas that's interdictor strike so just a strike package ground attack as well as about 15 tornado ecrs which are the electronic warfare variant and to do that so they need an aircraft that can do uh they can fulfill a strike rule they can fulfill reconnaissance seed and as well as that they also want something that is able to carry the american b-61 nuclear bomb because germany of course is in nato's nuclear sharing policy which means that theoretically in times of need hopefully never they might be carrying american nuclear warheads into battle so only options that realistically tick all those boxes work for germany of course it's a lot more complex than that but those are sort of the main criteria that i'm going to work with in this video at the same time you want to keep the number of different airframes in the forest to an absolute minimum simply because that is preferential in terms of supply and maintenance logistics chains and as well as that of course you want to use synergies where possible between the different airframes uh simply because again that is easier for maintenance there you have parts commonality for example but you also have ease of transitioning between the different platforms for example this is also why an updated eurofighter in an ecr role so an electronic warfare role is although it's going to be quite expensive to develop this still a discussion that is being had in the german government of course also airbus wants it to happen so that's another reason but uh because at that point the luftwaffe can turn around and say right we have eurofighter as a fighter we have your fighter and a swing roll with a strike potential and we have euro fighter as well in an electronic warfare platform and it's just one plane that gives us all those capabilities of course in different variants but you will have that capability super hornet and growler just to talk about that that is being essentially a necessary evil that is being considered at the moment and no as you know i've said this before the super hornet and growler have not yet been confirmed as ordered by the german government they have only issued like a statement of intent that they're interested in it they have not yet ordered these planes as you know but it's just worthwhile mentioning it once again nothing has changed in that position the reason why the super hornet and growler is of course being considered at the moment is well super hornet would give the germans a strike package and as well as that the growler gives them the electronic warfare platform and you have that synergy between these two aircraft because essentially they're built from the same platform and at the same time they also take all the boxes that germany needs including to carry the american nuclear b61 bomb so with all of that summed up i just want to remind you that i also recently did an inside the cockpit episode on a panavia tornado i deep dive into the cockpit explain you the system explaining the layout and also the history of the platform so if you have not yet seen that video check it out as well that will give you a nice little introduction to the actual aircraft and you will also see the inside of it which is something that most people don't really get to see now i'm going to be starting here from in this graph as i said i'm going to start from the bottom going to the top and i'm going to focus on the main aspects of why these planes might not work or could work but since i haven't been restricting myself to the main aspects i can talk about everything if you have anything to add to the discussion please put it in the comment section below i'd be very interested to read all your ideas as well so let's start with the first one which is the f16 who doesn't love the f16 right yeah that's not going to happen so it does not really have an electronic warfare platform yes there are certain elements of that i believe in block 50 and now there's been recent use news not used for block 1772 that then electronic warfare packages being added and upgraded but unlike the fa18 super hornet and growler combo you are not really getting that much value out of the platform super horn and gravel would probably be the better options because you have a better strike package and also the electronic warfare suite is already available um that being said it is going to be interesting to see what f16 is going to uh mature into well it has already matured as a platform but where it is going but i just want to remind all of us including myself that when we talk about acquiring a new plane we also should think about everything that comes with that plane around it for example i'm going to talk about the weapon systems here currently what the luftwaffe uses are weapon systems that are integral to euro fighter and tornado if they now acquire a different plane from a different country with different weapon systems they might have to certify their own weapons on this platform which is going to take time which plus it's a huge information exchange which is sometimes a bit awkward and or they take all the weapon systems that already come with that platform and add it to the package and import that into the force so it's when we think about acquiring a new plane just thinking about the weapons here as well it's not just the plane it's everything that comes with the plane and weapon system is only being one part of that but that shows you how really big this issue actually is it grows beyond just acquiring a new aircraft next next suggestion here is the bae tempest so tempest doesn't exist yet and germany needs something now not in 30 years time besides germany themselves are with airbus in collaboration with dassault and of course uh the spanish companies as well uh working on their own sixth generation platform which is a direct competitor to tempest that is called fcas or scaf if you're french and so as as much as i would like european countries to bundle together share expertise and build one sixth generation platform that works for all of them that is incredibly difficult we've seen this in the past yes panhavia tornado is one of the examples where multinational development of a weapon system has worked there's a couple of other examples as well but for every example there there's also two or three where this hasn't worked and it's going to be incredibly difficult for european countries like france germany britain spain italy even sweden to come up with one combined solution that fits all of them without having to compromise heavily on what each individual country wants and i don't just see it happening at this point so i would like to see it happen but if not but that being said you know tempest is as we say in germany tsukum physique music of the future just as fks so right now not a valuable option but it's going to be interesting to see where that platform develops into now we come to the the j20 the fc 41 and chinese aircraft in a hall now i'm not going to make qualitative statements about chinese aircraft the reason is that i've recently invited an expert on this subject onto the channel i've made an interview with him and he's going to introduce you and me to the capabilities of as far as we know in the west of the current chinese kit that is out there so wait for that video to to get a deep dive on that it's going to be absolutely fantastic what i'm going to do at this point is just remind us all that buying a military jet is not like buying apples at a supermarket i know you know that but even for myself sometimes it's something that is important to remember because once we talk about these what-if scenarios it's very easy to get carried away and just come up with options that once you start deep diving into them really are not that realistic and this is exactly this this uh issue here with the chinese plane so military procurement is a very political process even geopolitical and it goes into national security and when we look at the chinese jets i mean there's going to be information exchange between the germans and the chinese aircraft and that's going to you know be quite difficult because it touches on things like military capabilities of course obvious intelligence and looking at the chinese side side you know the chinese are not going to sell germany a jet they're certainly not going to sell them the mighty dragon that j20 but they're not going to sell them any other jet either because they know that germany is in nato they know that germany has very tight ties with nato allies with america and there are quite rightfully probably going to fear that if germany gets these jets that the capabilities of these jets will trickle down information wise towards the allies especially the americans and that is something that china wants to avoid and at the same time flip side let's look at this from the other side right germany is not going to buy a chinese jet because germany i'm going to use the the royal we as the royal third person here um germany we have better allies china is not an ally of germany yeah we have allies in nato we have allies in europe we have allies in america with canada we have tighter thais and and nations that we trust more and who also have military kit that is quite more potent of what the chinese are bringing out right that is just easier to acquire comes with less strings attached comes with less risk attached and makes a lot more sense so um yeah this is this is one of those things where it's it's just not possible from from a political geopolitical perspective new drones drone swarms unmanned this is a really cool suggestion because it's very future orientated right but just a reminder germany needs something now and when i say now okay like next five years let's say not in 15 to 20 years time now yes drones are really sort of the the topic that we like to discuss at the moment they're very very pertinent to ongoing discussions about where aviation military aviation is taking us in the future but again a lot of this stuff you're not going to take a drone right a normal weaponized zone as we know like the heron tp or something like the older platforms like the predator or something and you're going to say well we're going to just take that and replace all our force with that of course i don't think that has been the suggestion that you guys have been making anyway but when we think about drone swarms and so on that is planned in fcas anyway and that is also planned for example tempest although a little bit less so so a lot of these capabilities are only just now being hashed out what they're supposed to be and what they're so going to be and there's a lot of theoretical stuff and a very little practical stuff when it comes to drone swarming so we're not yet there where we can really make a decision on this plus i mean if you've seen the german debate on weaponized drones i have a video on this with dr ulrich franke she gives a great really a fantastic breakdown of the german drone debate on weaponized drones and why it's so complex and if you've seen that video you'll know why this currently is not an option for german anyway the next one is an f-22 the f-22 i mean at this point you might as well go f45 i know i've all these comments come on a video where i said germany does or doesn't buy the f35 right so but thinking about the platform and you have the f-22 here we have one but wave if you're interested in these models i'm affiliated with air models and if you uh acquire a fantastic little miniature from them you will also be supporting the channel so if that is something that you would like to spice up your living space with uh let's say your living room um you can do so there and you'll also be supporting the channel but going back to the f22 i mean i think i don't think there's been a single f22 that has been built since about 2012 and there's been a recent study that was conducted on what it would cost to relaunch production of the f-22 because a lot of the factories were sort of mothballed or pushed into supporting the production of f35 i believe the figure that the study comes up with is 10 billion dollars just to relaunch production not actually a production run of aircraft as well the cost of those airframes is going to be on top of those 10 billion dollars and germany for a fleet of 40 to 50 aircraft plus 15 ecrs let's say uh they're not going to be spending 10 billion dollars giving it to the americans plus the cost of the individual airframes they're going to take that money they're going to invest it into eurofighter they're going to invest it into either maybe super hornet or into fcas or well any any other project the f-22 um doesn't work at this point um you might just go with completely different options the option of buying f22 a second hand also not very good you know it's a dead end at this point so tornado new or updated um i think what is meant here is either you update the existing airframes or you buy new ones build new ones on the side of updating them well that's what germany has been doing together with their partners the raf and the italians on the platform of course the raf has recently well retired their tornado fleet um there was a very um sad ceremony but yeah the platform is getting old right um so they have been doing that for some time and they've been given midlife updates and i believe it is slotted to fly until 2030 and then 2045 even and we're not quite sure yet where how long uh tornado is going to stay with it but one thing is sure tornado is over it is an old platform there's only so much you can do with it and just like with the f22 re-launching production now just for germany is going to be prohibitive uh expensive based on what you're gaining out of it so that just doesn't make any sense at this point i would hate to see tornado go but we will have to let it go at some point it's just it's just how it is um yeah i'm not quite sure if there's any big update for tornado slotted up at the moment uh but there's not so much that you can do anyway at this point anymore the next option fa-18 where do we have mine there it is f a-18 uh i was a little bit surprised how low this was on the list to be honest um given that this is actually one of the planes that is realistically being considered by the german government and at this point i'm not going to be saying that it is a good option in my opinion but it is a realistic option you can of course have a discussion wherever uh super hornet and growler gives germany the capabilities that will allow it to overcome the hopefully never scenarios that we sadly have to include in sort of this planning and hopefully never scenarios would be a direct confrontation with the russians at least if we only think about europe right russian air force russian air defenses especially the air defenses and you can make an argument well you know the russians have been beefing up those capabilities as well is super hornet and growler really going to work in that environment i'm not the one that can answer this question i'm gonna be honest but that is an argument that i think we should look at super hornet of course has some uh advantages it's relatively easy to acquire i can already hear somebody typing so stand by for one second it's relatively affordable as well i can hear somebody else now typing please just stand by for a second and of course it comes with that combined synergetic package which is the super hornet and growler and i don't think anybody is typing there to loop back to recent news that's why i was saying that some people might already be typing is that well there's been recent news now with the 2022 proposed defense department of defense budget by the u.s and in that budget the fa18 acquisitions for 2020 have been slashed to zero none whatsoever null of deutsche actually uh steve trimble on twitter put together this handy graph here that you can see and give him a follow by the way uh if you're interested in these sort of questions he often posts around quite interesting things on such topics and what this means is that germany better decide fast whether they want super hornets and growlers or not because with the us navy slashing their orders it's going to get more expensive buying the platform and eventually it might not longer be available because you might say well boeing could go out on a limb here and build a couple of whitetails on their own company money in the hopes of selling those then later on to germany but i don't see boeing taking that risk at the moment so yeah it's now or never germany if you want super hornets or growlers you better decide this year or next year maybe and this once again shows you how time sensitive these things are and we really should have started this whole process 10 to 20 years ago but oh well you know that's in the past we just gotta move forward now next one f15ex might as well just keep tornado and try to improve it at this point um rafael okay so now it gets interesting the sweetheart of the internet has arrived that is so rafa through the day anybody on the internet criticizes the rafael rafal is not a good option yeah there i gone and said it it's not a good option the reason why i say that i'm going to focus on the political side now of course rafal is a capable aircraft it comes with a strike package it has a competitive electronic warfare suite but what i want to just highlight here is that currently dassault which of course builds rafale and airbus which is part of the conglomerate that builds eurofighter they are working together on fcas and right now they're a little bit of a clinch about who gets to say what on f cars yeah the french are very interested in the new next generation fighters or the fighter platform in afghans and the germans the airbus the airbus company is mainly working on of course the remote carrier but they also want to have to say on the next generation fighter and right now it's a little bit complicated between those two sides and the last thing that i think aeros wants at this point airbus wants generally but at this point specifically is that the german government turns around to that so and says we want rafael we're going to prop you up instead of buying more euro fighters from airbus that is certainly going to see some heavy lobbying on the side of airbus right now but at the same time we also have to think about it beyond that in the political geopolitical realm germany is of course a nato's nuclear sharing policy which means they're using the b61 nuclear bomb which is an american bomb now say it is hypothetical scenario that they buy rafael and they want to certify the file for the b61 nuclear bomb now the french are going to say no because when that happens a lot of information exchange between the two platforms is essentially being sent the americans way and i don't think the french are you know tight allies with the americans but they still don't want the top of the line information on their fighter platform being sent towards the americans and there's going to be a lot of information exchanged on these two platforms in order to certify the aircraft for this bomb and the french are going to say no and quite rightly i think and of course at that point you can say well the french have their own tactical nuclear warheads right asm pa and rafale is certified for those you can't generally just have those well first of all if germany does that it is now out of nato's nuclear sharing policy because that is based on the b61 and i don't think that germany politically wants to be out of nato's nuclear sharing policy even though theoretically at the same time they might want to do that it's a very complex situation anyway with asmpa the french don't have that many of them but i and franco german friendship has gone a long way since the second world war we are as tight as ever but the french are not going to give germany a nuclear bomb end off i mean if germany calls and says hey we would like to have rafael the scenario will most likely unfold like this okay yes thank you good bye it's so rafael sukhoi aircraft big aircraft russian aircraft same story as with the chinese aircraft just refer back to what i said there f35 okay so these suggestions i on the recommendation of getting the f35 were made on a video entitled why germany doesn't buy the f35 so spoiler alert of course your suggestions are absolutely valid the f35 is a realistic option it takes all the boxes yes it's expensive especially in the long run to run but so would be an updated eurofighter electronic warfare suite or a completely new suite by the way it's not just updated so yeah of course there is discussion there but germany even though this is a realistic option even though this is perhaps the smartest option at this point germany has decided not to go that route so the jesus is absolutely valid sadly that is not where we're going at the moment okay now this is this this is going to be a good one gripen gripen is a really cool aircraft i'm not surprised to see it on the list but i'm very surprised to see it this high and saab if you're watching this you guys are popular wow and yeah of course uh on the new uh gripen ef i've been looking at this a little bit more closely i've been asking a couple of people that know a lot more about this than me the electronic warfare suite very competitive the problem is gripen in a strike role not that good it's a downgrade from euro fighter and as well as that the b61 nuclear bomb not an option because the swedish governmental line is that they are not going to allow exports to other countries if the platform that is being exported is going to be used to deliver nuclear warheads and if the germans want to have the b61 and b in nato's nuclear sharing policy and want gripen for this the swedish government is not going to make that happen that's just how it's going to be um of course you could say well the germans could buy grip and then promise the swedes not to do that and then do it anyway no that's not going to happen you know that's like a house of cards scenario and which just doesn't work in the real world um of course one of the possibilities would be to get gripen only for covering tornado ecr but then we're talking about a fleet of 15 to 20 aircraft financially wise doesn't really make sense and then we come to fcas or a new german aircraft or an updated euro fighter so i'm going to bundle these into one new german aircraft well that's fcas yes it's a multilateral development but that's where we are at the moment so that's still going to take decades fcas was moved to what 2030 then 2040 and we're still not quite sure what fcas is going to be delivering at the end if even it happens in the end so we don't know took office music just like tempest right actually talking about fcas i have uh doctor ulrich funker coming back to the channel very soon to talk about this platform and she gives a really nice introduction to this aircraft and i think a lot of you will uh will enjoy that video so make sure you subscribe and hit the bell notification so you get the notification when it comes out talking then about eurofighter okay so i have a couple of things to say about this that i've already said in the last video but tornado ecr again it's not called ecr because it doesn't exist yet but the electronic warfare variant that is proposed by airbus is going to be really expensive for germany to do but also because germany is probably going to be only country to buy it and again this is going to be like for 15 20 planes until we see a massive increase in the size of the luftwaffe which i don't see forthcoming in the near future and also your fighter ecr is going to still take a while to develop as well so it's not going to be around anytime soon which again it shows you that really awkward scenario and why we've ended up with these two possible options you know propping up national industry with airbus in re reordering first of all a lot of fighters in new swing roll for groundless attack for ground strike missions to replace the tornado ids we'll talk about 40 to 50 aircraft and as well as that getting airboats that contract for an updated euro fighter with electronic warfare that's one option and why we and because this is expensive and still something that has to happen in the long term germany has turned to an option that is probably easier to acquire which is the super hornet groudo combo and this is how we arrive at those two platforms because the f35 which is the other realistic option has been just bracketed off by the previous defense minister so yeah you can see the awkward spot that germany is in at the moment um a lot of the options that you guys have been given me absolutely valid they they could work theoretically speaking but there are certain elements in each or one of them that just disqualify them and that that just is where the story ends at this point you know we'll have to see what anigret kabha and the defense ministry and the german government decides i don't think that's going to happen this year because this year is election year so the decision is going to happen in a proposed budget for the year after so that's the proposal comes in around august september 2022 and is then ratified in november december 2022 so yeah we're going to have to wait at least one and a half years unless something big happens i don't see that happening at the moment so we'll have to see we'll have to see i think they are the cdu so the party of hannigate kampang bauer is currently also building up their election program where some of these questions might be answered we'll have to see but yeah i hope that all of you enjoyed this overview of the options that germany has and this dilemma that we are in isn't it fantastic absolutely amazing the situation we've got ourselves in but yeah it is how it is life goes on right i want to hear now your suggestion your takes your deep dives on some of these aircraft why you think they would work for germany or not what do you think germany should be doing at the moment put them in the comment section i'd be very interested to see what all of you would argue and as always i just want to remind all of you that this channel is actively supported and possible due to active patreon supporters and channel supporters so if you enjoyed this sort of convent check out those platforms and if you're so inclined support the channel as always make sure you also like subscribe the whole youtube combo jumbo thing right and i wish all of you a fantastic day and see you in the sky

Channel: Military Aviation History

Views: 308,884

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Id: sGiZKLIBAJc

Length: 30min 7sec (1807 seconds)

Published: Thu Aug 26 2021