Why Germany Doesn't Buy the F-35

germany is a bit of a pickle well not germany specifically but the luftwaffe the german air force it is looking to update some of its key equipment and the f45 the lockheed martin f-35 was part of that discussion for some time until it was simply brushed aside what is going on why is germany looking to update some of its equipment and why is the f-35 no longer part of that discussion i will try to answer that question in this video so as a quick reminder of what is going on germany is currently on the hunt for a replacement for the aging panavia tornado fleet i already talked about germany's reasons for replacing tornado and some of the recent news surrounding this issue in these videos right here so if you're new to this make sure you watch these videos as well so you get a fuller picture but as a quick reminder here it of course serves to remember that germany is trying to find a replacement for tornado ids and tornado ecr and currently the discussions revolve around the euro fighter and the fa-18 super hornet and the e818 growler at the date of this recording they have not yet confirmed that they are going to buy american never mind what you've read on the internet never mind what you've seen on youtube the defense ministry and the german parliament has not yet confirmed the order nor has the necessary budget been passed the only budget that has been cleared by parliament a couple of months ago was on updating part of germany's eurofighter fleet not for buying super hornets or growlers the budget committee of the german parliament passed a 5.4 billion euro package for the purchase of 38 machines with this the first generation of eurofighters is to be replaced there's no direct link to their plans for replacing the aging tornado platform germany has still no concrete solution on how they're going to be substitute tornado and to be honest if they wanted to have a domestic solution they should have started working on this like 20 years ago at minimum but they didn't so we are in this very joyous situation at the very least we do know that eurofighter and also the boeing aircraft are being considered at the moment that begs of course the question why not the f-35 and there's a lot of things that speak for the f45 and in order to illustrate those let me put on my best salesman impression the f-35 can fulfill every single mission germany would wanted to and more all mission parameters and more check the f35 is nuclear strike capable and recently got certified for the b61 f35 nato nuclear sharing policy check the f-35 is also the most modern state-of-the-art system out there f-35 modern and state-of-the-art system check it's the most future-proof system and it would also buy you all some time for that f-cass thing you'll be trying to put together f35 future proof check what do you say sounds uh pretty good now sounds good on paper yes yeah good check fantastic pleasure doing business with you here's the invoice thank you okay so that was a bit of fun to illustrate some selling points but actually to be honest i don't think that the price tag of the f45 is that big of an issue or should be that big of an issue all things considered but i will go into that and later on in the video for now it serves to remember that the f45 was actually being considered as an option for us for some time for example in 2017 germany shortlisted the f-45 and approached the americans to ask for relevant information on the platform in order to assist them making a decision on it the german air force this month sent the us military a written request for classified data on the lockheed martin corporation f-45 fighter jet as it gears up to replace its current fleet of fighter jets from 2025 to 2035. in the same year luftwaffen inspector general and carl milner indicated that the f-45 is considered as the best option for the luftwaffe the german military needs a fifth generation replacement for its tornado fighter jets the chief of staff of the air force set on wednesday lieutenant general kaimuna's comments are his clearest public statements to date on the tornado replacement program they indicate our preference for the lockheed martin corporation's f-45 fighter jet the only western aircraft that meets those requirements mirna who had also championed the use of weaponized drones had been quite an experienced luftwaffe inspector holding the job since 2012. his frequent clashes with then defence minister ozola fonderline and his rather public support for the f-45 is by many seen as the reason for what happened next in the debate over deficiencies with bundeswear equipment the defense minister uzola fonderline has initiated a changing of the guard next to the replacement of the current under secretary of defense the current inspector general of the bundeswehr and the long-standing inspector of the luftwaffe general and carl milner had to resign it has been suggested within the defense ministry that by indicating his preference for the u.s jet mirna has publicly opposed the minister on a key defense acquisition matter in the official press release of the ministry the reasons for the personnel changes were not further justified and with that the f-35 was off the table well not exactly it actually did take until like 2019 for an official statement to be made but you know if somebody appears to get fired over this issue then that using your signals to everyone in the room as well as to everyone outside the room that hey this issue is really not being discussed anymore and now for a quick intermission if you enjoy my videos whether that is inside the cockpit or my world war ii luftwaffe primary document series or this one consider doing the whole liking subscribing hitting the notification bell icon thingy here on youtube i know super selfish of me to ask you to do that but actually it's win-win you get regular free content that you enjoy and i get to do this so let's win win together and also i keep having people asking me where they can get these aircraft models that they see in the background of my videos i've actually recently partnered with a company called air models so if you want to space not space but spice up your office space your living room your kitchen your bathroom maybe even your bedroom with some sweet air models well check out air models with the link down below that's an affiliate link so any purchase you make is not just going to make your space look a lot more air spacey that was a horrible joke but it's also going to support a channel so if you do that thank you very much and now back to the video whatever might have been the cause for mundus dismissal this debate is also one about how germany talks or doesn't talk about military procurement so i want to briefly talk about four issues that i believe have an influence on this debate and the possibility of getting the f-35 which as i said is not being considered at the moment now i'm going to be very clear here a lot of this is somewhat unclear this is a very bureaucratic process this is one that is very complex so what i'm going to lay out here is a more generalized metascope of things and then maybe in a future video i can drill down more specifically into individual issues if you guys would like to see that in germany any sort of major debate on military matters is sure to pickle somebody's cabbage weaponized drones g46 rifle nuclear sharing policy interventions abroad tornado replacement what i find remarkable however is that in recent history the industry is getting a lot more vocal and they're doing this in public which it really is not a given for germany take airbus aeros is applying a lot of pressure to keep your fighter orders rolling in and airbus argues that it can and already has to a degree modified eurofighter into a platform that can also substitute tornado ids at the same time the earth force also want to replace tornado ecr and for that they want to modify eurofighter into an electronic warfare platform similar to how the growler is sort of the electronic warfare cousin of the super hornet right now that hasn't happened yet and it's going to look very expensive but airbus naturally wants to do it and actually you might remember this from the other videos i already spoke about that there so i think in the future we will definitely be seeing even more vocal industry and one that is going to apply a lot of pressure via lobbying but also via the labor unions and any sort of return to a discussion on the f45 is going to attract a very rigorous response because airbus of course wants to keep jobs in europe well specifically in germany and the eurofighter platform is going to allow that any talk about the f45 is immediately going to track a lot of comments about its price tag but i actually don't think that the price tag of the f45 is that much big of an issue in this case although the perception of it might be very different as you know the figures that you see advertised on the internet of the unit prices so the price you pay for a single aircraft are usually only ballpark figures and the way they're calculated sometimes is just there they take a complete order package and then you just divide it by the number of planes orders and you get a figure but this figure includes not just a plane but a lot of other things for example spare parts early maintenance on the machines and of course also training and on top of that the prices that you pay might vary considerably between the orders because of the date when the order was made the upgrades that you have asked for in the machine and of course also the batch size of your order so two different orders by two different countries with a relatively similar batch size might actually be broken down into two completely different prices per plane simply because these deals are completely different let's put some figures out there right the f-35a which was the plane that the luftwaffe was looking at has reportedly fallen to below 80 million usd per plane it's very unlikely that germany is going to get that price for example the danish deal on the f-45 equals out at 116 million usd norway at 160 million usd and belgium at a whopping 191 million usd now i'm going to assume that if germany puts in a significant batch order that it's probably going to get a price that is once you break it down roughly equivalent to the danish figure but again that's just speculation then let's look at the euro fighter the euro fighter we actually have that recent order by the uh by the german parliament right and this is an 8.4 billion euro package for 38 euro fighters and if you break that down per plane we're sitting at i believe it was a 142 million euros which quick math translates into like what 165 million usd per plane again that's not just the price per plane that also includes all the extra costs that i talked about earlier but if we shave off let's say 15 to 30 million whether you want to make that euros or usd depends on you but eurofighter is also expensive of course beyond that lifetime costs matters as well and the f-35 is more expensive there plus as it is a completely new machine that germany would have to get used to so it is expensive both to purchase and to run however i think really the money is a superficial reason it's something that gets quick public traction like with the f45 the price has already become sort of a meme really and beyond that you know it's it's just good for a couple of nice headlines in the media but if we for example assume that the germs are going to go with a pure euro fighter approach and substitute tornado ids with euro fighter and tornado ecr then tornado or euro fighter ecr has to be developed first and that's going to be really expensive as well and although i can't really tell you how much that is going to cost because i don't know i feel like ordering a significant number of f-35s versus ordering a custom purpose-built eurofighter ecr that may only germany wants and maybe only germany orders in the end i mean which one is going to be more expensive i i really don't know at this point but i have a feeling that it might actually be you're a fighter so i don't think the price matters that much beyond the perception of the price but i think there's a genuine hesitance perhaps in germany about buying american at this point and that might also have an influence on the super hornet and the growler deal well there is no deal yet but on the plans of perhaps potentially substituting tornado ideas and tornado ecr with the support and growler yeah the actions of america since the invasion of iraq the continuous interventions abroad and then specifically also the legacy of the donald trump administration on transatlantic relations have created in germany uh more and more hesitance about you know doing anything with the americans and yeah anti-american feeling in germany is probably on the rise and that in fact might have an influence on the decision whether you can put in an order for the super hornets and the growlers never mind the f35 because a lot of political bargaining has to take place since buying anything american at this point might be perceived by some people in society and also by some people in politics as buying into or even sort of sponsoring an american war machine so any sort of deal involving the americans and their equipment is probably going to result in a lot more discussion than we are currently seeing just now of course germany does not just need to replace tornado it also needs to have a platform that is nuclear strike capable because of nato's nuclear sharing policy which is a policy that based on these quick posts that i ran on youtube and twitter not that many people seem to be familiar with with by the way if you took part in that paul thank you very much thank you very much for answering honesty it was a big help so in a nutshell nato's nuclear sharing policy is a policy of nuclear deterrence where member states nato member states that do not have domestic nuclear weapons are included in the delivery of american nuclear weapons should this be required now whether you agree with this policy or not that is really up to you but germany is in it and nato's nuclear sharing policy it really isn't um it really isn't like it is the most dominating political or social discussion at that moment it really isn't but nukes are known to incite a lot of emotion and germany on the whole is against nuclear stuff where we're talking about nuclear energy or of course weapons the f45 is certified for the b61 yeah it checks that box eurofighter isn't and if germany wants to have a certified board db61 it is relatively reliant it is not just relatively aligned it is completely reliant on the americans of saying yes now if germany turns around to the americans says we are not going to take the f-35 we're not going to say super hornet not can we really take the growler we're going to go with a pure euro fighter lineup they're putting the ball in america's play field and america then has to decide okay we want germany in new nato's nuclear sharing policy so we are going to allow this that's going to take a couple of years and you know it's reliant on american american timetables but it might happen but at the same time the americans might say no this is not going to happen and if germany then sticks to its guns and says no no we are going to stay with your fighter whether you're certified for the b61 or not that germany is de facto out of nato's nuclear sharing policy because they don't have a platform able to deliver the b61 which is actually something that they might prefer of course if the americans say yes that's going to set up another beehive because in order to get the eurofighter certified for the b61 the way i understand this there's going to be a lot of information and also intelligence sharing on the platform in order to make that integration possible which is something that not everybody might want to happen starting with airbus and then also going over to all the other countries that are currently using the eurofighter so yeah that's going to make things quite tricky once again why didn't we just start like 20 years ago trying to find a replacement really just why didn't we just do that when it comes to the bonus wear germany doesn't know what it wants it's in a very inconvenient spot of where it could and perhaps should be doing more but it doesn't really want to yeah there's a strong reluctance in both society and politics in order to do anything concrete and i again i'm going to point to the interview that i did with doctor like ifanka she breaks this down really well germany needs to spend money to update this force and it has quite a few projects running you know there's fcas or scaf as the french say it and then there's mgcs that's the thing i can never say really fast mgcs there we go actually managed to do it relatively quickly and then to you add to that the general reluctance of talking about military matters and then of course the chat about neutrals nuclear sharing policy and you mix that all together and eventually you get this nice little political cocktail that is known as i am not going to stick my head out for this germany as a country not just the politicians but as a country since the cold war really needs to start finding a consensus on some even some of the most basic defense and security questions yeah do we want an army what sort of army do we want what capabilities and competencies do we want our force to have what sort of missions is this force laid out for what partnerships do we want with international partners do we want to be in nuclear sharing do we want to be in nato and yes i understand that in talking to an international audience and also probably to quite a few germans amongst you a lot of these questions seem simple and naive but in germany they are not redundant on some level those questions still need to be answered because at the moment the country just tries to desperately cling to the superficial status quo that was happening during the cold war but it is in itself very unhappy in that position and at the same time its allies are very unhappy about that as well and if you don't have a vision about what sort of army you want and what sort of missions you want this army to conduct embedded into what sort of partnerships and equipped for what sort of conflicts how can you then make coherent decisions once you have to start thinking about spending a lot of money on things like the tornado replacement during the cold war a lot of these things were easy and self-explanatory yeah we had west germany there was a war show pack just across the border that's dangerous we need weapons to defend ourselves against them and the east germans will probably think the same thing just vice versa right but since then it feels that unified germany has more and more just gone down this checklist of political buzzword bingo on international partnerships and commitments and it really doesn't have a concrete plan or a concrete vision and i think that this does have an influence on the f35 question because together with some of the other things that i've said right you are probably far less likely to put down money for something new if you don't exactly know what you need it for and a simpler solution or a seemingly simple solution with for example your fighter or the boeing aircraft might just be more inviting never mind whether they're actually able to do the tasks that you want them to do or able to do a task that these platforms have to do in the future for example one basic question you might ask is having talked about nuclear sharing is the eurofighter platform or is the super horner platform at this point in time actually capable of fulfilling that mission given the overall environment and the technology that exists nowadays compared to the f4d5 could the f-35 perhaps fulfill that mission whereas you're a fighter and subordinate can't could the f-35 make a return in the discussion perhaps it would be a quick fix and it would allow if germany goes for the f55 to close this chapter relatively quickly but i don't think that's going to happen and i also don't see anybody in the political landscape that is really prepared to push for it military procurement in germany is a political hot potato most of these things just get passed on to the next minister and then we arrive in the situation now where we have our present defense minister aniket kamkarenbauer who although she has probably selling herself as a politicians at least seems to try in order to get some of these issues fixed and some of these issues you know they date back half a decade even a decade of tornado replacement you could even say 20 years because the previous defense ministers just you know passed it along so yeah i'm not quite sure what's going to happen um germany is in a situation where really the the the ship has sailed in a certain way and it really can only choose between bad worst and worst options and yeah we'll have to keep an eye on what aniget kampanubau actually does because yeah she's inherited this problem and well at least she tries to fix it [Music] so i hope that you enjoyed this video and please let me know what you think about the situation down in the comment section below i'm looking forward to all your comments your ideas and also your take on the whole situation really and if you enjoyed this sort of content if you want to see more please consider supporting the channel via patreon or via channel membership that helps out a lot and as always i wish all of you a great day and see you in the sky

Channel: Military Aviation History

Views: 815,912

Keywords:

Id: D6vrIa3EKog

Length: 23min 39sec (1419 seconds)

Published: Thu Apr 29 2021

Reddit Comments

[u/No_Ideas_Man]

R2: dumbasses in the comments talking about how the gripen is best, Eurofighter is French, and generally ignoring everything the guy in the video said about what the germans actually want (nuclear capable strike fighter and EW platform to replace Tornado) and some of the politics in how the Germans are dont want to buy American

[u/No_Ideas_Man]

My favorite comment is the one that says the eurofighter is French

[u/DecentlySizedPotato]

Why does Chris bother with a 24 minute video when this guy has the answer in like one sentence?^/s

[u/darthtomato]

Has there been any additional news about the possible German F-18 deal? I haven't seen much about it in a while.